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Bear Stearns 16 th Annual Global Credit Conference May 16, 2007

Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Page 1: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Bear Stearns 16th Annual Global Credit Conference

May 16, 2007

Page 2: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

2

Disclaimer

The following information contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on Management’s current expectations and beliefs, as well as a number of assumptions concerning future events.

These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by Management in light of its experience and its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments as well as other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances. However, whether actual results and developments will conform with Management’s expectations and predictions is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, general economic, market or business conditions; the opportunities (or lack thereof) that may be presented to and pursued by United Refining; actions by competitors; changes in laws or regulations; and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of United Refining.

You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements because actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied, as more fully discussed in our safe harbor statements found in our SEC filings, including, without limitation, the discussion under the heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on Form 10-K. All forward-looking statements are based on information available to Management on this date and United Refining assumes no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any obligation to, update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

This material also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under the Securities and Exchange Commission rules.

Page 3: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

3

Introductions

John Catsimatidis Chairman of the Board, CEO

Myron Turfitt President, COO

Jim Murphy CFO

Robert Kaemmerer Vice-President, Finance

Page 4: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

4

Company Overview

Page 5: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

5

Corporate History

Company founded in Warren, PA

Kiantone Pipeline completed

Refinery expanded to 65 MBPD

Acquired by John Catsimatidis

Acquisition of 50 competingretail outlets

CapitalImprovementProgram

Country Fair Acquisition 69 Stores

Compliance with EPA Phase 1 Gasoline Standards

Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Compliance

Began productionof low sulfurdiesel fuel

1902 1971 1982 1985 1991 1993 1997 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Refinery expanded to 70 MBPD

Page 6: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Corporate Profile

Refinery Refinery (union & management(union & management)) 389389CorporateCorporate 169169Retail stationsRetail stations 3,8293,829Total EmploymentTotal Employment 4,3874,387

Page 7: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Key Credit Strengths

Attractive end-market with nearest competing refinery 160 miles away1.96 cents per gallon transportation cost advantage vs. BuffaloAccess to Canadian crude with cost-effective access to other sources

Integrated R&M Assets

Advantageous Location

Strong Financial Position

70 MBPD Refinery in Warren, PA With the ability to process up to 80% heavy crudeRetail marketing (371 company-operated stores)Kiantone crude pipeline

Proven, ExperiencedManagement

Average 26 years industry experienceReliable operating historySupportive, long-term shareholder

Strong Cash Flow$137MM LTM EBITDA up from $60MM in 2004Reduced leverage – 1.85x Total Debt to LTM EBITDA vs. 3.5x at 2004 Substantial cash-on-cash return from expansionUntapped convenience store real estate value

Favorable Sector

Fundamentals

Positive refining margin outlookFavorable PADD 1 supply / demand characteristicsPositive light-heavy differential prospects

Page 8: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

8

Experienced Management Team

Years of Industry

Experience

Years With

CompanyPositionName

55Vice President, FinanceRobert A. Kaemmerer

1111Vice President, General Counsel and SecretaryJohn R. Wagner

3030TreasurerDennis E. Bee, Jr.

2525Chief Financial OfficerJames E. Murphy

2727Vice President, Supply and TransportationFrederick J. Martin, Jr.

4014Vice President, RefiningThomas E. Skarada

4031Senior Vice President, MarketingAshton L. Ditka

3329President and Chief Operating OfficerMyron L. Turfitt

2622Average

2222Chairman of the Board, CEOJohn A. Catsimatidis

Page 9: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Refining

Product Yield

42%

24%

26%

8%

Gasolineand

Blends

Distillates

Asphalt

Other

Most cost-effective supplier with a 100-mile radius― 3.26 c./gal. advantage vs.

nearest refinery and1.96 c./gal. vs. Buffalo

Closest competitor is 160 miles away in Canton, OH

Warren

Nanticoke(Esso)

Lima Pittsburgh

Erie

Buffalo

100 miles200 miles

Cleveland

Canton(MAP)(Premcor)

Toledo(BP/Sun)

Detroit(MAP)

Toronto(PetroCanada)

COP

NYC/Philadelphia

Warren

Nanticoke(Esso)

Lima Pittsburgh

Erie

Buffalo

100 miles200 miles

Cleveland

Canton(MAP)(Premcor)

Toledo(BP/Sun)

Detroit(MAP)

Toronto(PetroCanada)

COP

NYC/Philadelphia

Warren

Nanticoke(Esso)

Lima Pittsburgh

Erie

Buffalo

100 miles200 miles

Cleveland

Canton(MAP)(Premcor)

Toledo(BP/Sun)

Detroit(MAP)

Toronto(PetroCanada)

COP

NYC/Philadelphia

(Valero)

Page 10: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Product Distribution

AsphaltDistillate Distribution

20%

80%

Retail

Wholesale 55%

13%

28%

4%

Paving

EmulsionBase

Roofing

Speciality

Gasoline Distribution

80%

20%Wholesale

Retail

Page 11: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Reliable Operating History

United has maintained utilization levels above the national average due to― An effective maintenance and turnaround program― Timely capital improvements― Favorable demand conditions in its target market

88

96 9795

90

101

96 96 96

91

98 98

101 101

93 9294 95 96

93 93 93

90 9092

90 8987

80

85

90

95

100

105

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007YTD

Utilization (Throughput / Capacity) (%)

United IndustrySource: Energy Information Administration and Company Filings

Crude UnitTurnaround

Crude UnitTurnaround

Crude UnitTurnaround

United Average = 96%

Industry Average = 92%

Crude UnitTurnaround (1)

Note: (1) Completed during week of April 16, 2007

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Integrated Retail Marketing

371 company-operated units― 186 company-owned― New York, Pennsylvania

and OhioSecures outlet for production― 80% of gasolineWell-recognized regional brands

Regional BrandsClevelandCleveland

ErieErie

BuffaloBuffalo

PittsburghPittsburghHarrisburgHarrisburg

RochesterRochester

SyracuseSyracuse

BinghamtonBinghamton

WarrenWarren

Country Fair 75Kwik Fill 296

Ohio13

Pennsylvania188

New York170

Page 13: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Latest Retail Construction

Country Fair

St. Mary’s, Pa

KwikFill

Marienville, Pa

Page 14: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Flexible Crude Access

Reliable access to Western Canadian crude through the Enbridge system

Cost-effective to U.S. onshore and global offshore crude as well

Edmonton

Montreal

Portland

Chicago Warren

St. James

Toronto

Enbridge

Enbridge

Enbridge

Cap

line

Portland

Kiantone

Chicap

Enbridge

Page 15: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Industry Outlook

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Favorable Refining Margin Outlook

8

9

10

January April August December

Gasoline Demand (MMbpd)

2006

Gasoline Days Supply

2007 5-Year Average 2006 2007 5-Year Average

21

22

23

24

25

26

January April August December March

Gasoline demand at highest levels ever Gasoline supply below last year and 5-year average

Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration

Page 17: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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PADD I Dynamics

Limited incremental source of supply since PADD I is a net importer of refined products

Adjoining PADD II is also net product short precluding competitive threat from refineries in the region

United’s core regional marketing area is protected from imported products due to economic barriers to entry

2 ,0 12 2 ,0 2 52 ,0 9 3 2 ,12 3 2 ,14 8 2 ,159 2 ,14 2

2 ,2 8 22 ,3 55 2 ,3 8 9

1,9 3 6

8 2 578 274 272 271872 271570 96 8 86 2 26 52

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Barrels(MM)

Source: Energy Information Administration

PADD I Balance

45

50

55

60

65

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

2005 2006 2007

PADD I Weekly Inventory

30

40

50

60

70

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Distillate

GasolineBarrels(MM)

Page 18: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Lagged NYMEX Crackspreads

13.2313.39

10.91

8.61

6.11

4.54

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Proj 07

Page 19: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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7.61

11.85

20.6819.89

16.34

21.07 21.6020.27

18.3417.07

23.48

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007E 20073MA

20079ME

2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E

Light / Heavy Differential (WTI / Lloyd Blend US$)

Source: Sproule Associates

Attractive Light-Heavy Differential Outlook

Page 20: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Strong, Growing Cash Flow and Reduced Leverage (1)

Notes: (1) LTM from quarterly reports based on FIFO inventory cost accounting. LIFO adjustment occurs at fiscal year-end

$MM FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 LTMEBITDA $ (5.6) $ 28.6 $ 60.1 $ 58.0 $ 150.3 $ 137.3

TOTAL DEBT 206.4 214.4 212.9 227.1 228.0 246.3CASH 13.5 13.8 11.6 43.2 59.2 16.0NET DEBT 192.9 200.6 201.4 183.9 168.8 230.3

Interest Expense 20.1 21.4 21.4 24.7 24.6 24.3

Total Debt / EBITDA (x) NM 7.5 3.5 3.9 1.5 1.8

Net Debt / EBITDA (x) NM 7.0 3.4 3.2 1.1 1.7

EBITDA / Interest (x) NM 1.3 2.8 2.4 6.1 5.6

Page 21: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Recent Developments

Page 22: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Recent Operating and Financial Highlights

Achieved Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel compliance in May 2006, with aninvestment of $3.8MM

$100MM revolving credit facility extended to November 2011 with lower pricing and “springing” covenants based on excess availability

Achieved record earnings of $64MM and record sales of $2.4Bn in fiscal year 2006

Announced results of second fiscal quarter with $5.4MM increase in operating income over previous year

Issued $125 additional notes at 104.25 net proceeds to Company of $129.3 million

Moody’s and S&P upgrade bond ratings to B3 and B

Page 23: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Capex Projects

Page 24: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Capacity Expansion

Description: Expansion to increase refinery to 70 MBPD; Modifications to heaters, desalter and pipeline pumps to permit incremental 5 MBPD at present crude slate (approximately 57% heavy asphaltic crude)

Estimated Cost: $9.0MM

Funding: To be funded from proceeds of add-on transaction

Timing: To be operational in May 2007

Anticipated Benefits: Incremental EBITDA of $24MM / year

Construction Details: United staff with detailed engineering and construction management assistance by ABB Lummus

Page 25: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Revamp Heavy Crude Unit

Description: Allow use of 80% asphaltic crude

Estimated Cost: $6.0MM

Funding: To be funded from proceeds of add-on transaction

Timing: Summer 2007

Anticipated Benefits: Incremental EBITDA of $23MM / year

Construction Details: United staff with detailed engineering and construction management assistance by ABB Lummus

Page 26: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Capital Spending Overview

Project Description

EstimatedEBITDA($MM)

InvestmentCost

($MM) Details

Add tankage to improve margin onasphalt

$7$5 •Increase the margin on incremental asphalt produced by an estimated $50 per ton

$24$9 •Modifications to heaters, desalter and pipeline pumps

•Incremental 5 MBPD •Approximately 57% heavy asphaltic crude

Capacity Expansion

Revamp Heavy Crude Unit $23$6 •Allow operation at 100% asphaltic crude upon coker installation

$54$20Total

Page 27: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Planned EBITDA Expansion – Capex Projects

$24.0

$23.0$7.0 $54.0

$0.0

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

CapacityExpansion

RevampHeavy Crude

Unit

AdditionalTankage

Total

EBITDA($MM)

Cost: $9.0 $6.0 $5.0 $20.0

Page 28: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Financial Overview

Page 29: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Historical Financial Performance (1)

Notes: All values based on August 31 fiscal year end. LTM as of 02/28/07

(1.) LTM from quarterly reports based on FIFO inventory cost accounting. LIFO adjustment occurs at fiscal year-end

(2.) PF LTM assumes full year interest expense on $100MM 10.50% Senior Notes Add-On and 40% tax rate. Assumes amortization of fees and issuance premium over remaining life of notes

(3.) EBITDA defined as the sum of net income before non-recurring items, income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization

$MM FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 PF LTM (2)

Net Sales $1,052.0 $1,290.4 $1,488.9 $1,890.2 $2,437.1 $2,434.0

Cost of Goods Sold 966.6 1,158.6 1,316.2 1,716.3 2,163.0 2,166.2

Gross Margin 85.4 131.8 172.8 173.9 274.0 267.7

SG&A 94.3 106.4 111.8 117.6 128.8 134.0

Depreciation & Amortization 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.6

Operating Income (Loss) (20.7) 13.1 48.5 43.5 132.1 120.2

Net Interest Expense 19.7 21.3 21.4 24.5 23.9 32.9

Other Income (Expense) (1.3) (1.3) (2.2) (3.1) (1.9) (3.7)

Earnings in Affiliates 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 2.2 2.1

Non-Recurring Gain (Expense) - - (6.8) - - -

Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes (40.5) (8.6) 18.8 16.8 108.5 85.8

Income Tax Expense (Benefit) (15.6) (3.4) 7.4 6.9 44.4 34.3

Net Income (Loss) (24.9) (5.3) 11.4 9.9 64.0 51.5

EBITDA (3) ($5.6) $28.6 $60.1 $58.0 $150.3 $137.3

Page 30: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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58.0

150.3137.3

60.1

28.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2003 2004 2005 2006 PFLTM

9731,300

536

728

938 949

181

189

195

571

711

1,290

597183

199

1,489

1,290

1,890

2,437 2,434

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 PFLTM

Historical Financial Performance

Retail - PetroleumWholesale Operations

Retail - Merchandise and Other

$MM $MM

Revenue

2003-2006 CAGR 23.6%

EBITDA

2003-2006 CAGR 74.0%

Page 31: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Historical Credit Profile

Notes: (1.) Pro Forma interest expense assumes full year interest on $100MM 10.50% Senior Notes Add-on and amortization of fees and issuance premium over remaining life of notes

(2.) Free Cash Flow defined as Cash Flow from Operations less Cash Flow from Investing Cash Flow

$MM FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 PF LTM (1)

Cash $13.5 $13.8 $11.6 $43.2 $59.2 $118.3

DebtRevolver 24.3 31.5 13.0 - - 17.0 Long Term Debt 181.9 182.2 199.5 226.8 227.6 327.2 Other Debt 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 5.6

Total Debt 206.4 214.4 212.9 227.1 228.0 349.8

Shareholder's Equity 48.2 42.0 47.1 50.9 91.9 78.9

Total Book Capitalization $254.6 $256.4 $260.1 $278.0 $319.9 $428.7

EBITDA (5.6) 28.6 60.1 58.0 150.3 137.3 Interest Expense 20.1 21.4 21.4 24.7 24.6 34.4 Capital Expenditures 9.1 8.0 10.1 11.9 21.7 27.8 FCF (2) (43.4) (6.3) 11.5 21.5 43.8 53.0

Credit StatisticsTotal Debt / EBITDA NM 7.5x 3.5x 3.9x 1.5x 2.5xNet Debt / EBITDA NM 7.0x 3.4x 3.2x 1.1x 1.7xEBITDA / Interest Expense NM 1.3x 2.8x 2.4x 6.1x 4.0x(EBITDA - Capex) / Interest Expense NM NM 2.3x 1.9x 5.2x 3.2x

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Historical Capex Analysis

Note: All values based on August 31 fiscal year end.

Over the past five years, the Company has averaged approximately $4.7MM / year for maintenance capex

Discretionary capex has typically been funded with free cash flow

5.5 6.0 6.0

5.1

9.18.0

11.9

21.7

3.2 2.9

5.94.6

5.9

15.7

10.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Maintenance Capex Discretionary Capex

$MM

Page 33: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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Liquidity Profile

Note: Based on fiscal year ending August 31

$14 $14 $12$43

$59

$16

$25 $28$62

$99$100

$83

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 As of 2/28/07

$MM

Cash Available Revolver Capacity

Country Fair Acquisition

$39 $42

$74

$142$159

$99

Page 34: Bear Stearns 16 Annual Global Credit Conference - URC · heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on ... 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Bear Stearns 16th Annual Global Credit Conference

May 16, 2007