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BEEF & VEAL MARKET SITUATION. " Single CMO " Management Committee 19 July 2012. P R O D U C T I O N. H I S T O R I C T O N N E S. P R O D U C T I O N. % E V O L U T I O N H E A D S. P R O D U C T I O N. % E V O L U T I O N T O N N E S. P R O D U C T I O N. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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BEEF & VEALMARKET SITUATION
"Single CMO" Management Committee 19 July 2012
2
P R O D U C T I O N H I S T O R I CT O N N E S
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2
1.00
0 To
nnes
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1.00
0 To
nnes
EU15 EU12
Apr
Beef & Veal Production (Slaughtering) - Tonnes
Source : EStat-Newcronos
3
P R O D U C T I O N % E V O L U T I O NH E A D S
Estimates for last month of period :CY Source : EStat - Newcronos
Tot Bov
YBov
-5,0%
+0,1% +0,2%
-4,3%
Steers
Cows
Heifers
Veals
Bulls
Jan-Apr 12/11EU 15 EU 27
-4,6%
HEADS
-5,2%
-1,6% -1,9%
-7,6% -8,8%
-12,5% -12,5%
-0,4% -1,1%-4,2%
-7,4%
-3,8%
+2,5%
-9,8%
-12,8%
-7,8%
-0,8%
-3,2%
-5,5%
-2,2%
-5,1%
-2,8%
-13,7%
-18,1%
-8,4%
-10,9%
-15,1%
+4,1%
-0,7%
-2,9%-1,7%
-5,2%
-7,8%
-12,4%
-2,4%
-0,0%
- 20 %
- 15 %
- 10 %
- 5 %
0%
+ 5 %
BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK- 20 %
- 15 %
- 10 %
- 5 %
0%
+ 5 %
EU : - 5,0%
4
P R O D U C T I O N % E V O L U T I O NT O N N E S
Estimates for last month of period :CY Source : EStat - Newcronos
Steers
Cows
-4,1%
+2,2%Veals
-0,7%
Heifers
YBov
Tot Bov -4,8%-4,1%
Jan-Apr 12/11TONNES
EU 15 EU 27
Bulls
-4,3%
-7,6%
-11,4%
-1,3%
-4,7%
+2,1%
-4,4%
-6,5%
-11,4%
-3,6%
-7,5%-6,4%
+3,2%
-10,4%-10,7%-10,1%
-3,3%-4,0%
-5,8%
-0,3%
-5,6%
-1,7%-2,4%
-10,4%
-18,4%
-7,6%
-1,7%
-16,0%
+2,8%
-1,8%-2,5% -2,9%
-7,7%-6,9%
-2,7%
-15,2%
- 20 %
- 15 %
- 10 %
- 5 %
0%
+ 5 %
BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK - 20 %
- 15 %
- 10 %
- 5 %
0%
+ 5 %
EU : - 4,8%
5
P R O D U C T I O N Abs.Value E V O L U T I O NT O N N E S
1000 TONNES : Jan-Apr 11 / Jan-Apr 12
0
100
200
300
400
500
B E B G C Z D K D E E E I E E L E S F R I T C Y L V L T L U H U M T N L A T P L P T R O S I S K F I S E U K
Cows
Steers
Bulls
Heifers
YBov
Calves
Source : EStat Newcronos
6
E.U. E V O L U T I O NAll CAT GLOBAL VIEW
P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
A R3
C R3
D O3
E R3Last Update : Week 27 - 2012Source : Member States
7
P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S
E.U. E V O L U T I O NY O U N G B U L L – A.R3
376,55 373,65% change y/y : + 12,7% % change y/y : + 12,2%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
A - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
8
E.U. E V O L U T I O NS T E E R – C.R3
P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S
411,23 406,82% change y/y : + 21,4% % change y/y : + 19,7%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
C - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
9
E.U. E V O L U T I O NA / C . R3
P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S
383,03 381,61% change y/y : + 14,6% % change y/y : + 14,4%
172,2%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
% Ref. Price in wk 27 :
222,4
244,6
266,9
289,1
311,4
333,6
355,8
378,1
400,3
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
€/100 kg cwe
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
% of Reference Price
AC - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
10
E.U. E V O L U T I O NC O W – D.O3
P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S
319,20 317,72% change y/y : + 17,2% % change y/y : + 18,7%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
D - O 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
11
E.U. E V O L U T I O NH E I F E R – E.R3
P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S
383,77 383,63% change y/y : + 11,8% % change y/y : + 12,3%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
E - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
12
Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)
E.U. E V O L U T I O NMALE STORE CATTLE
P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S
268,96 268,58% change y/y : + 27,7% % change y/y : + 26,6%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
BROUT > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
13
Male calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)
P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S
E.U. E V O L U T I O NMale Calves – 8D4W
265,48 264,12% change y/y : + 21,6% % change y/y : + 16,8%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
8D4W > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
14
Male DAIRY CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)
P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S
E V O L U T I O NMale DAIRY Calves – 8D4W
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
€ / H
ead
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
€ / H
ead
DE - SCHWARZBUNTE DE - BRAUNVIEH ES - TIPO FRISONFR - MALES-ENGRAISSEMENT IE - DAIRY MALE IT - MALES-LAITIERS-VITELLINL - ROODBONT-NUKAS NL - ZWARTBONT-NUKAS UK - DAIRY BULLS
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 > W27
15
Male BEEF CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)
P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S
E V O L U T I O NMale BEEF Calves – 8D4W
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
€ / H
ead
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
€ / H
ead
DE - FLECKVIEH DE - KREUZUNGSKALBER ES - TIPO CRUZADO FR - MALES-ELEVAGEIE - BEEF MALE IT - MALES-BOUCHERIE NL - VLEESRAS--NUKAS UK - BEEF BULLS
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 > W27
16
Butcher calves (€/100 kg cw)
P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S
E.U. E V O L U T I O NButcher Calves
528,26 532,28% change y/y : + 0,6% % change y/y : + 0,7%
Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012
BOUCH > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States
17
Butcher calves (€/100 kg cw)
P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S
E V O L U T I O NButcher Calves by MS
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
€ / 1
00 k
g ca
rcas
se
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
€ / 1
00 k
g ca
rcas
e
BE - VEAUX BLANCS E,U,R FR - VEAUX DE BOUCHERIE IT - CARNE BIANCA NL - VLEESKALF-ROOD NL - VLEESKALF-ZWART
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 > W27
18
M A R G I N E.U. E V O L U T I O NAnimal + Feed Purchase COST
Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain fattening
0
100
200
300
400
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
€uro
/ hea
d
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain of FCR between 7- 6 Feedcost x*7Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight.Feed ration: 40% compound feed (energy + proteine), 15% barley, 15% maize, 20% wheat, 10% strawCarcase yield: 0.57
19
M A R G I N E.U. E V O L U T I O NAnimal + Feed Purchase COST
Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain/ grass fattening.
0
100
200
300
400
500
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
€uro
/ hea
d
0
100
200
300
400
500
Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain of FCR between 7- 6 Feedcost x*7Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight.Feed ration: 62,7% fodder (silage maize), 18,6% grains (maize + wheat, 13,3% soja cake, 5,3% strawCarcase yield: 0.57
20
EU exports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
DestinationsCompared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-May 11
Turkey 204 0.1% 571 0.2% 70 370 14.5% 166 737 26.2% 43 107 21.4% - 51.2%Russia 102 347 35.1% 50 881 20.4% 135 762 28.0% 138 635 21.8% 35 579 17.7% - 36.8%Croatia 19 917 6.8% 25 126 10.1% 23 159 4.8% 24 969 3.9% 8 995 4.5% - 8.9%Sw itzerland 25 968 8.9% 19 072 7.7% 22 340 4.6% 26 431 4.2% 7 330 3.6% - 39.6%Lebanon 5 619 1.9% 7 838 3.1% 33 774 7.0% 22 568 3.6% 6 921 3.4% - 28.7%Algeria 1 689 0.6% 6 681 2.7% 16 151 3.3% 17 970 2.8% 4 833 2.4% - 49.5%Other Destinations 126 887 43.5% 125 591 50.4% 168 757 1.1% 237 927 37.5% 86 250 42.9% - 4.5%EXTRA EU 25/27 291 601 249 165 485 166 635 236 201 229
% change - 15% + 95% + 31% - 26.3%
2008 2009 2010 Jan-May 122011
T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SBeef & Live Animals
21
EU exports of beef and live animals:Trade figures (COMEXT)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR)
171 03450 969
127 767
98 579157 198
258 950
256 611
341 416
2 205
279 241
837 733
627 260
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12
1,00
0 EU
R
Turkey Russia GhanaHong Kong Switzerland CroatiaOther destinations
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe)
43 10725 912
56 282
35 57964 369
90 293
86 250
88 333
114 822
273 003
201 229
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12
Tonn
es c
w
Turkey Russia GhanaHong Kong Switzerland CroatiaOther destinations
T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SBeef & Live Animals
22
Exports of BEEF products
0
10. 000
20. 000
30. 000
40. 000
50. 000
60. 000
70. 000
80. 000
|J an06
2006 |J an07
2007 |J an08
2008 |J an09
2009 |J an10
2010 |J an11
2011 |J an12
in T
onne
s cw
e
LI VE ANI MALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS
T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SB e e f P r o d u c t s
23
EU beef Exports to TURKEYTrade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Apr
10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul 1
0
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct
10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Apr
11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar
12
Apr
12
Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters Fresh Bovine (un)-separated ForequartersFresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quartersLive Animals TOTAL
T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SB e e f t o T U R K E Y
24
EXPORT STRUCTURE EVOLUTION ( % share - GATT years )
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*
Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beefW02Source : Member States
EVOLUTION PER CATEGORY
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beef2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*
W02Source : Member States
( tonnes cwe - GATT years )
T R A D E ( Tonnes CWE )
EU EXPORTS – Beef & Live AnimalsExport Licences with Refunds
LIVE ANIMALS
FRESH BEEF
FROZEN BEEF
TINNED BEEF TOTAL
2011-12 : 892 5.232 1.577 0 7.7002012-13 : 20 3.699 674 0 4.393
( Tonnes cwe ) - ( W 2 ending 08 / 07 / 2012 )% Share ( W 2 ) 0,5% 84,2% 15,3% 100,0%
- 97,8% - 29,3% - 57,3% - 43,0%Source : Member States
G A T T Y E A R S
% Chg / Prev. Same Period
Σ Week 01 > 02
25
EU imports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
OriginsCompared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-May 11
Brazil 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6% 144 791 38.2% 125 708 38.9% 47 963 39.1% - 5.8%Argentina 92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4% 79 487 21.0% 62 517 19.4% 22 221 18.1% - 20.3%Uruguay 66 402 16.8% 79 144 18.4% 66 156 17.5% 51 217 15.9% 22 180 18.1% - 9.8%USA 6 547 1.7% 9 609 2.2% 15 290 4.0% 22 914 7.1% 8 092 6.6% + 1.9%Australia 12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9% 13 628 3.6% 18 017 5.6% 7 817 6.4% + 26.8%New Zealand 12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7% 13 669 3.6% 15 387 4.8% 7 082 5.8% + 4.4%Namibia 10 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9% 13 571 3.6% 8 975 2.8% 3 339 2.7% + 58.2%Switzerland 2 919 0.7% 4 394 1.0% 4 450 1.2% 5 662 1.8% 1 801 1.5% - 28.2%Chile 2 550 0.6% 3 158 0.7% 2 441 0.6% 2 253 0.7% 713 0.6% + 57.1%Serbia 1 784 0.5% 990 0.2% 1 127 0.3% 785 0.2% 235 0.2% - 24.0%Botswana 10 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7% 15 763 4.2% 980 0.3% 0 0.0% - 81.3%EXTRA EU 25/27395 063 431 182 378 954 322 849 122 772
% change + 9% - 12% - 15% - 8.3%
2008 2009 2010 Jan-May 122011
T R A D E E.U. I M P O R T SBeef & Live Animals
26
EU imports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)
IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (Tonnes cwe)
60 548 50 893 47 963
37 67427 875 22 221
34 247
24 57722 180
21 928
16 44914 498
164 189
133 901122 772
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12
InTonnes
cwe
Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA Australia Other destinations
IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (1000 EUR)
186 877 206 334 218 227
185 475 197 035 177 572
123 849126 446 119 389
27 64748 822 62 224
89 10888 395 79 008
701 089633 614
696 721
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12
in 1000EUR
Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA Australia Other destinations
T R A D E E.U. I M P O R T SBeef & Live Animals
27
I mpor t s of BEEF product s
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
|J an06
2006 |J an07
2007 |J an08
2008 |J an09
2009 |J an10
2010 |J an11
2011 |J an12
in T
onne
s cw
e
FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS
T R A D E E.U. I M P O R T SB e e f P r o d u c t s
28
452403
446401
436 429 398
491 513 529565
513556
395 431379
323
123
1 263
1 1711 120
825
1 028
736
598 598
481 455
352292
248292
249
485
635
201
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 J an-May12
1000 Tonne
I MPORTS EXPORTS
Trade balance on beef and live animals
T R A D E E.U. T R A D E B A L A N C EBeef & Live Animals
29
W O R L DB E E F M A R K E T
E.U. I M P O R T SBEEF MAIN IMPORTERS
Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)
Main Exporters of BEEF Products (up to May)Un
ited
Stat
es
Unite
d St
ates
Aust
ralia
Aust
ralia
Braz
il
Braz
il
New
Zeal
and
EU
EU
Cana
da
Arge
ntin
a
Arge
ntin
a
Urug
uay
(up
to F
eb 1
2)
Urug
uay
(up
to F
eb 1
2)
Para
guay
Para
guay
Nica
ragu
a
New
Zeal
and
Cana
da
Chin
a +
H. K
ong
Chin
a +
H. K
ong
Nica
ragu
a
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 (up to May) 2012 (up to May)
Qty
in 1
000
Tonn
es
30
W O R L DB E E F M A R K E T
E.U. E X P O R T SBEEF MAIN EXPORTERS
Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)
* EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 2011
Main Importers of BEEF Products (up to May)Un
ited
Stat
es
Unite
d St
ates
Mex
ico
(up
to A
pr 1
2)
Russ
ia
Russ
ia
Japa
n
Chin
a +
H. K
ong
Sout
h Ko
rea
Sout
h Ko
rea
EU
EU
Cana
da
Cana
da
Turk
ey
Turk
ey
Mex
ico
(up
to A
pr 1
2)
Japa
n
Chin
a +
H. K
ong
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2011 (up to May) 2012 (up to May)
Qty
in 1
000
Tonn
es
.
31
Market prices for Adult Male Bovine in Brazil (Pecuaria.com.br), Argentina (Oncca) Uruguay (Inac) and EU
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
| Year2008
| Year2009
| Year2010
| Year 2011 | Year 2012 |
€uro
/ 100k
g
EU Beef A/C R3 AVG Arroba do Boi (6 St) (Pecuària.com.br)Novillos Export (Oncca Argentina) Media Res Novillo (Inac Uruguay)
W O R L DB E E F M A R K E T
Adult Male Bovine PRICES