Belton Summer Independent Demographic School Report ...files.ctctcdn.com/906edbb2101/bece4a66-a41c-4f72... · Demographic Report 2015 ... Texas Enrollment Trends 2014/15 State Enrollment

Belton

Independent

School

District

Summer

Demographic

Report

2015

Learn from Yesterday…

Understand Today…

Plan for the Future

Economic Conditions – Killeen-Temple (June 2015)

Temple

Unemployment Rate• U.S. 5.5%

• Texas 4.4%

• Killeen-Temple MSA 4.7%

• Temple 3.9%

-1.1%

Job Growth

• 1,800 new jobs created in the last

12 months

1.3%

Annual SF Permits

Killeen-Belton MSA

• More than 2,000 permits issued in

the last 12 months

2,071

2

Texas Enrollment Trends 2014/15 State Enrollment

Total Enrollment 5,232,065

Total Growth 80,140

4,399,019

4,519,1644,592,849

4,671,4934,749,571

4,847,844

4,933,617

4,998,579

5,075,840

5,151,9255,232,065

3,800,000

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

5,200,000

5,400,000

Total State Enrollment

120,145

73,685

78,644

78,078

98,27385,773

64,962

77,261

76,085

80,140

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000Enrollment Change

3

Region 12 Growth 2009/10 – 2014/15

Rank DISTRICT2009/10

Enrollment2014/15

Enrollment5-YEAR Change

5-YEAR PCT Growth

1 Killeen ISD 39,603 42,638 3,035 7.7%

2 Belton ISD 8,859 10,542 1,683 19.0%

3 Midway ISD (McLennan) 6,883 7,664 781 11.3%

4 Academy ISD 1,075 1,364 289 26.9%

5 Corsicana ISD 5,638 5,914 276 4.9%

6 Groesbeck ISD 1,583 1,829 246 15.5%

7 Salado ISD 1,350 1,563 213 15.8%

8 Troy ISD 1,274 1,468 194 15.2%

9 China Spring ISD 2,288 2,463 175 7.6%

10 Robinson ISD 2,160 2,319 159 7.4%

11 Mullin ISD 109 254 145 133.0%

12 Hillsboro ISD 1,902 2,018 116 6.1%

13 Holland ISD 540 653 113 20.9%

14 Rice ISD 777 882 105 13.5%

15 Gholson ISD 154 248 94 61.0%

4

Local Economic OverviewPanda Natural Gas Facility

• Panda Energy is building two clean, natural gas

fueled facilities on 250 acres in the South

Temple Industrial Park

• The first facility, completed in September, will

power 750,000 homes in Central Texas

• The second facility will sustain an additional

150,000 homes

• Anticipated $1.6 billion impact on the local

economy in the first 10 years

• Second facility will be commissioned by the end

of 2015

• Will create 400-500 construction jobs, 35 jobs to

run the plant and 45 indirect jobs in support of

the facility

5

Walmart on the West Side• A Walmart supercenter is under construction at

the corner of Adams Ave. and Old Waco Road

• Opening in the summer of 2015

• Will create 300 jobs when open

• City will be working to widen Old Waco Road,

near the new store

TRUmh Texas Expands• TRUmh Texas, a Clayton Homes Company, that builds

manufactured homes is expanding its operation

• The facility off Industrial Park Road will undergo a $6.3

million renovation and expansion

• The renovations is expected to add 175 jobs upon

completion, 75 the first year and 100 the second year

Fort Hood’s Economic Impact and Troop Cuts

• Fort Hood’s economic impact on the area is estimated at $44.5 billion

• The Fort creates nearly 69,000 direct jobs and 214,300 indirect jobs

• Fort Hood is currently building an $11 million facility for wounded veterans with

complicated medical conditions such as traumatic brain injuries and chronic pain

• Fort Hood currently employs approximately 5,200 civilians, and has cut 99 positions

through January 2015

• The Army is reducing the active-dusty force by 40,000 troops over the next two years

• The Army’s civilian workforce will be cut by approximately 17,000 people over the

same two-year period

• The current troop reduction plan would cut approximately 3,350 soldiers from Fort

Hood, or 9% of the current personnel

• The cuts would bring the Fort’s soldier population to approximately 35,000

• Fort Hood will not lose any of its four brigade combat teams, each with approximately

4,000 soldiers

• Texas will lose about 4,900 Army personnel by 2017, with other cuts at Fort Bliss and

Fort Sam Houston

• There could be additional reductions announced if automatic spending cuts go into

place beginning Oct. 1. Those cuts could result in an additional 30,000 active-duty

personnel reduction by 2019

• About 6% of Belton ISD students come from Fort Hood 6

Temple-Belton Housing MarketMultiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory

7

8.9%

10.0%

8.8%

-14.8%

-18.2%

YTD Sales(740 YTD Sales May 2015)

Number of Listings(825 May 2015)

Average Price($170,400 May 2015)

Median Price($142,800 May 2015)

Existing Home Inventory(5.4 Month’s Supply)

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

New Home Development in Belton ISD

8

FM2410

FM 2483

E FM 93

W FM 93

FM2

27

1

FM

112

3

FM 439

W FM

436

FM

16

70

§̈¦35

§̈¦35

£¤190

£¤190

¬«317

¬«95

CHISHOLM TRAIL

HIGH POINT

LAKEWOOD

LEON HEIGHTS

MILLER HEIGHTS

PIRTLE

SOUTHWEST

SPARTA

TARVER

= Future Development

= Active Development

• About 6,000 future lots are currently planned within Belton ISD

• About 350 homes are expected to be built in 2015

• Belton ISD currently has 10 active subdivisions

• The largest active development is Westfield with 750 future homes

• The largest future development is Three Creeks with 1,500 future homes

Westfield

Three Creeks

Active Single-Family Housing Activity

Liberty Valley-Phase III

• 59 futures• Barnes Homebuilders• Estimated absorption rates:

• 2015 = 20 homes• 2016 = 19 homes

• $137K-$148K• 85 current students

37 elementary student27 middle school students21 high school students

• Chisholm Trail Elementary

9


Hills of Westwood

• 598 futures• Kiella Homes/Omega Builders• Estimated absorption rates:

• 2015 = 35 homes• 2016 = 35 homes• 2017 = 40 homes• 2018 = 40 homes

• $155K-$220K• 143 current students

76 elementary students34 middle school students33 high school students

• Pirtle Elementary (some of the development may fall within Tarver Elementary)

10


Westfield

• 750 future lots

• Kiella Homes/Omega Builders

• Estimated absorption rates:

• 2015 = 71 homes

• 2016 = 75 homes

• $120K-$185K

• 153 current students

82 elementary students

36 middle school students

35 high school students

• Tarver Elementary

11


Lake Pointe III

• 317 future lots• 60 occupied lots

• Centex/DR Horton


• 2015 = 75 homes

• 2016 = 75 homes

• $122K-$219K





• Tarver Elementary

12


Village of Sage Meadows

• Active home construction occurring

• KB Homes

• $123K-$165K





• Pirtle Elementary

13

Future Single-Family Housing Activity

14

Creekside Estates

• 22 total lots• 21 total acres • Developer anticipates beginning

construction in Summer 2015• Chisholm Trail Elementary


Three Creeks

• 1,500 futures• Phase I & II approved• Phase I & II = 500-600 lots• W&B Development• $150K’s-$1M (estimated)• Estimated absorption rates:

• 2015 = 30 homes• 2016 = 75 homes• 2017 = 75 homes

• Developer estimates all infrastructure will be completed by July

• Chisholm Trail Elementary

15


UPDATE

Hubbard Branch

• 500 futures (proposed)• No plats approved/submitted

as of April 2015• NE corner of FM436 & Elm

Grove Drive• Miller Heights Elementary

16


The GroveAt Lakewood Ranch

• 550 future lots

• Kiella Homes/Omega Builders


• 2015 = 90 homes

• 2016 = 60 homes

• $170K-$300K+

• Lakewood Elementary (some of

the development may fall within

High Point Elementary)

17

Future Multi-Family Housing Activity

Colonial CrossingApartment Complex

• 208 units• Market rate units• Developer estimates to break

ground on this project in mid-to-late June 2015

• First residents anticipated in 1Q16• Construction should be 100%

complete by 4Q16• Southwest Elementary

18


19

The Residences at Commerce Crossing

• Proposed tax credit development• 76 total units (all low-income units)• The complex was NOT approved by

the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs

• No development occurring at this time• Leon Heights Elementary


Southwood Hills

• 76 lot/152 duplex units• All units are 2 & 3 bedrooms• Road infrastructure currently

being installed• Home/unit construction

slated to begin in July 2015• Riley-Scott Homes• Chisholm Trail Elementary

20


21

River Springs Phase II

• 140 total units• Market rate units• Developer must obtain

zoning change approval and then submit plans to the City of Belton for review

• Sparta Elementary

Additional Housing Activity

> 100 Lots

(This is not meant to be a comprehensive development list-additional housing developments are occurring within BISD)

Development Futures Zone

Cummings (aka Dove Meadows) 112 Pirtle

Northgate 133 Tarver

Campus at Lakewood Ranch 138 Lakewood

Chisholm Trail West 182 Chisholm Trail

Carriage House III 195 Pirtle

Riverside 200 Pirtle

Purser/Bentina 450 Tarver

Total 1,410

22

65

120 121

88

38

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City of Belton SFR Permits Issued 2011-2015 (July)

23

Overall Housing Data

City of Belton Single-Family Residential Permit History

Thru 07-15-15

Average 98.5 SFR Permits Issued Per Year (2011-2014)

Data Source: City of Belton Planning Department

From 2011-2015 (July)-the City of Belton issued permits for 13 projects

totaling 1,398 units (this does not include units built for UMHB students)

City of

Belton

City of

Morgan’s

Point Resort

City of

Temple

Student BreakdownBy City

City Total Students

City of Belton 3,635

City of Temple 3,287

City of Morgan’s Point Resort 810

In District-Unincorporated 2,383

24

Enrollment History

Student Race/Ethnicity and Economically Disadvantaged

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

25

Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth Total %

2010/11 44 373 738 722 696 720 699 674 681 743 689 705 612 617 565 9,278

2011/12 41 414 728 774 743 691 741 714 751 695 729 745 639 623 524 9,552 274 3.0%

2012/13 35 417 751 754 754 746 699 733 778 792 714 811 716 662 570 9,932 380 4.0%

2013/14 44 364 771 815 745 767 763 742 786 825 802 805 762 732 620 10,343 411 4.1%

2014/15 50 318 745 800 819 764 772 771 764 804 845 878 745 762 705 10,542 199 1.9%

Year (Oct.) Total

Black or African

American % Hispanic %

American Indian or

Alaska Native % Asian % White %

Two or more races %

Native Hawaiian/

Other Pacific

Islander %

2010/11 9,278 633 6.8% 2,830 30.5% 89 1.0% 120 1.3% 5,344 57.6% 248 2.7% 14 0.2%

2011/12 9,552 659 6.9% 3,015 31.6% 86 0.9% 143 1.5% 5,361 56.1% 269 2.8% 19 0.2%

2012/13 9,932 664 6.7% 3,162 31.8% 85 0.9% 157 1.6% 5,517 55.5% 330 3.3% 17 0.2%

2013/14 10,343 675 6.5% 3,360 32.5% 75 0.7% 161 1.6% 5,664 54.8% 384 3.7% 24 0.2%

2014/15 10,542 672 6.4% 3,376 32.0% 63 0.6% 171 1.6% 5,825 55.3% 414 3.9% 21 0.2%

Black/African American, 672, 6.37%

Hispanic/Latino, 3376, 32.02%

American Indian/Alaska

Native, 63, 0.60%

Asian, 171, 1.62%

White, 5825, 55.26%

Two or More, 414, 3.93%

Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander, 21, 0.20%

2014-15 STUDENT RACE/ETHNICITY TOTALS

Year (Oct.)Economically

Disadvantaged % ED

2010/11 4,434 47.8%

2011/12 4,684 49.0%

2012/13 4,848 48.8%

2013/14 5,200 50.3%

2014/15 4,810 45.6%

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Belton ISD will reach more than 11,000 students by the fall of 2016

• 5 year growth = 1,698 students

• 2019/20 enrollment = 12,240 students

• 10 year growth = 3,451 students

• 2024/25 enrollment = 13,993 students

Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth Total %

2010/11 44 373 738 722 696 720 699 674 681 743 689 705 612 617 565 9,278

2011/12 41 414 728 774 743 691 741 714 751 695 729 745 639 623 524 9,552 274 3.0%

2012/13 35 417 751 754 754 746 699 733 778 792 714 811 716 662 570 9,932 380 4.0%

2013/14 44 364 771 815 745 767 763 742 786 825 802 805 762 732 620 10,343 411 4.1%

2014/15 50 318 745 800 819 764 772 771 764 804 845 878 745 762 705 10,542 199 1.9%

2015/16 50 318 771 786 812 849 788 787 809 806 831 966 809 762 720 10,864 322 3.1%

2016/17 50 318 801 823 809 823 881 810 823 854 821 952 879 827 726 11,196 333 3.1%

2017/18 50 318 830 863 849 838 830 910 847 868 870 931 879 898 789 11,569 373 3.3%

2018/19 50 318 856 891 894 877 867 858 948 894 889 991 878 899 848 11,958 389 3.4%

2019/20 50 318 870 913 919 917 896 890 891 999 912 999 914 898 853 12,240 282 2.4%

2020/21 50 318 882 926 940 933 934 926 927 940 1,020 1,040 930 935 852 12,553 314 2.6%

2021/22 50 318 903 946 954 975 957 968 965 977 960 1,137 972 951 886 12,919 365 2.9%

2022/23 50 318 924 967 979 986 999 985 1,009 1,018 998 1,078 1,059 994 902 13,266 347 2.7%

2023/24 50 318 944 989 997 1,007 1,008 1,031 1,026 1,064 1,040 1,119 1,005 1,083 942 13,622 357 2.7%

2024/25 50 318 981 1,018 1,021 1,031 1,032 1,041 1,076 1,083 1,086 1,158 1,044 1,028 1,026 13,993 370 2.7%

26

Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

• Chisholm Trail Elementary will near 800 students in 2018

• Joe Pirtle Elementary will have more than 700 students in 2017

• Sparta Elementary will be nearing capacity with 665 students in 2019

• Five elementary campuses will be nearing capacity in 2019

*Yellow box = within 5% or over stated campus capacity

HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus Capacity 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

BELTON EARLY CHILDHOOD 628 0 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368

TYLER ELEMENTARY 628 590

CHISHOLM TRAIL ELEMENTARY 792 0 646 681 732 766 798 819 844 863 885 917 964

HIGH POINT ELEMENTARY 792 588 641 676 699 725 728 752 757 757 764 773 771

JOE PIRTLE ELEMENTARY 792 701 682 681 697 718 740 774 790 815 848 863 874

LAKEWOOD ELEMENTARY 792 628 657 651 656 677 682 700 696 718 703 703 707

LEON HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY 265 328 264 274 274 280 275 279 283 283 288 292 294

MILLER HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY 450 440 346 350 359 369 404 439 470 511 547 585 629

SOUTHWEST ELEMENTARY 440 488 391 394 410 404 418 427 436 447 454 456 460

SPARTA ELEMENTARY 685 708 592 612 622 642 650 665 700 726 740 752 766

TARVER ELEMENTARY 792 540 452 474 498 539 548 550 565 583 611 635 659

ELEMENTARY TOTALS 5,800 5,011 5,039 5,161 5,315 5,488 5,611 5,773 5,909 6,071 6,208 6,344 6,492

Elementary Absolute Change 122 28 122 154 173 123 162 136 162 137 136 148

Elementary Percent Change 2.50% 0.56% 2.42% 2.98% 3.25% 2.24% 2.89% 2.36% 2.74% 2.26% 2.19% 2.33%

27

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

*Yellow box = within 5% or over stated campus capacity

• Lake Belton Middle School will exceed 95% capacity in 2017 with 884 students

• South Belton Middle School will exceed 1,000 students in 2022

• Belton 9th campus relieving Belton High thru the year 2020

HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus Capacity 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

BELTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 0 767

LAKE BELTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 916 838 764 772 831 884 940 970 1,004 1,017 1,043 1,078 1,132

NORTH BELTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,000 0 857 841 824 811 875 884 926 900 953 966 1,003

SOUTH BELTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,000 808 792 833 843 890 916 948 957 985 1,029 1,086 1,110

MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 2,916 2,413 2,413 2,446 2,498 2,585 2,731 2,802 2,887 2,902 3,025 3,130 3,245

Middle School Absolute Change 129 0 33 52 87 146 71 85 15 123 105 115

Middle School Percent Change 5.65% 0.00% 1.37% 2.13% 3.48% 5.65% 2.60% 3.03% 0.52% 4.24% 3.47% 3.67%

BELTON 9TH GRADE CENTER 971 0 748 824 814 790 846 858 898 994 936 976 1,015

BELTON HIGH SCHOOL 2,500 2,603 1,895 1,968 2,090 2,228 2,291 2,328 2,381 2,473 2,618 2,694 2,762

BELTON NEW TECH HIGH SCHOOL 500 316 447 465 479 478 479 479 478 479 479 478 479

HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,971 2,919 3,090 3,257 3,383 3,496 3,616 3,665 3,757 3,946 4,033 4,148 4,256

High School Absolute Change 160 171 167 127 113 120 49 93 188 87 116 107

High School Percent Change 5.80% 5.86% 5.39% 3.89% 3.33% 3.42% 1.35% 2.53% 5.01% 2.20% 2.88% 2.58%

ALTERNATIVE CAMPUS TOTALS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DISTRICT TOTALS 12,687 10,343 10,542 10,864 11,196 11,569 11,958 12,240 12,553 12,919 13,266 13,622 13,993

District Absolute Change 411 199 322 333 373 389 282 314 365 347 357 370

District Percent Change 4.14% 1.92% 3.05% 3.06% 3.33% 3.36% 2.36% 2.56% 2.91% 2.69% 2.69% 2.72%

28

Summary

• 2,800 new jobs were created in the area over the last 12 months.

• New home construction in Belton ISD remains stable. The

district should add 400 to 500 homes per year for next several

years.

• The median sale price for homes in the Temple-Belton area has

risen 19.8% year-over-year.

• The district will add almost 1,700 students by 2019.

• The 10 year enrollment forecast adds more than 3,400 students

to the district by the 2024/25 school year.

• Additional Elementary capacity needed by 2018 or 2019.

• Additional Middle capacity needed by 2019 or 2020.

• Additional High School capacity needed by 2022.

29

ResourcesISD Development Research

• City and Town Planning and/or Economic Development Staff

• Erin Smith-Planning Director-City of Belton

• Brian Chandler-Director of Planning-City of Temple

• Barbara Morgenroth-Development Review Coordinator-City of Temple

• Local developers, engineers & real estate agents including but not limited to the

following:

• Ashford Homes

• Barnes Homebuilders

• Carothers Executive Homes

• Centex Homes

• Charter Builders

• Kiella Real Estate Group

• Mitchell & Associates, Inc. (Engineering Firm-Killeen)

• Omega Builders

• Riley Scott Homes

• Stillwater Custom Homes

• W & B Development

National/State/Regional Economic Research

• Texas A&M Real Estate Center

• Texas Education Agency historical enrollment data

• Texas Comptroller’s Office

• US Census Bureau 30

Documents

Belton Summer Independent Demographic School Report ...files.ctctcdn.com/906edbb2101/bece4a66-a41c-4f72... · Demographic Report 2015 ... Texas Enrollment Trends 2014/15 State Enrollment