Big data intelligent analysis system

National Research UniversityHigher School of EconomicsInstitute for Statistical Studies

and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK)

Pretoria 2018

Big data intelligent analysis systemintelligentFOResightAnalytics (iFORA)

"In the past, machines drink electricity. In the next 20 years, machines will drink data."

Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba Group

User-friendly interface

Articles Research grants

Analytical reports of international

organizations and consultancies

Media, social networks and professional

blogs

Materials of international conferences

System of quantitative and

qualitative methods

Strategic planning and technology foresight documents

2Source: HSE ISSEK iFORA

Patents Regulatory framework

Researchreports

Education programs

Big data intelligent analysis system iFORA:basic information

• Millions of documents • Full texts• A variety of data formats• Selection by unified

objective criteria • Constant replenishment

• Transparent, validated, reproducible, methodology

• Human factors risks are minimized

• Rapid acquisition of analytical results

Key tool of big data processing – multiplier of search conditions

3

SEARCH CONDITION: aviation, aircraft

multiplier of search conditions

INDUSTRY-WIDE VOCABULARY:more then 500 search conditions

SCIENTIFIC TERMS:more then 400 search conditions

INDUSTRIAL TERMS:more then 600 search conditions

Source: HSE ISSEK iFORA

Big data intelligent analysis system iFORA: key features

4

• Trends

• Market estimates

• Forecasts

• Benchmarking and risk assessment

• Network analysis

Trends

5

• Thematic mapping

• Structural changes analysis

• Assessment of significance and dynamism

• Life cycle analysis

• Comparison of information

Identifying sustainable thematic clusters

Mapping: Comparative analysis (1)Case of life sciences

6

Trends


embryonic stem cell

cancer therapy

tissue engineering

gene sequence

drug delivery

Global agenda

Mapping: Comparative analysis (2)Case of life sciences

7

Trends


Comparison of maps shows positions of Russian science vis-à-vis global agenda

cancer prevention

histological analysis

chronic inflammation

autism spectrum disorderdna sequence

cell therapy

chromosomal rearrangement

monoclonal antibody

blood-brain barrier

Russian agenda

Source: intelligentFOResightAnalytics (iFORA) system (IP owner - NRU HSE ISSEK)© NRU HSE. Confidential

Semantic map of the world patents (2011-2015)

Aerial vehicles

genetics, autoimmunity, and oncology

Mechanics of Liquids and Gases Electromechanics

Application of organic

acids

Food industryChemical synthesis

Telecommunication

Information technologies

- World patents meet needs of developed countries- High importance of electromechanics might be explained with public interest in green technologies and development of electric vehicles

- Weak connections between clusters

8

Source: intelligentFOResightAnalytics (iFORA) system (IP owner - NRU HSE ISSEK)© NRU HSE. Confidential

Semantic map of patents in RSA (2011-2015)

Food industry

Irrigation systems

Innovations in insurance field

Oceanography & fisheries

Air and waterpurification

Electrostatics

Hydroelectric power (p.22)

OncologyBiotechnology (p.24)

ICT

Electromechanics Soil fertilization

- Patents in medicine are concentrated mostly in oncology

- Soil fertilization and irrigation system are significant topics

- South Africa is testing new methods of water and air treatment

9

ClusteringCase of metallurgy technologies

10

Trends


Identifying clusters of related areas

Segmentationcase of fertilizers market

11

Trends

Identifying promising market niches and product groupsSource: HSE ISSEK iFORA

12

Trends


MappingNews about agriculture

Identifying sustainable thematic clusters

MappingCase of energy

13

Trends

fossil fuel

fuel cell x-ray diffraction

hydrogen productionpower

conversion efficiency

catalytic activity

solar cell

fuel consumption

energy density


14

Trends

COD removal

methyl estercomputational fluid dynamics

oxalic acidenergy equation

air pollution

water uptake

catalyst layer

neat diesel fuel

carbon atom

melting process

structure-directing agent

water vapor

carbonaceous material

air flow

thin film

nitrogen speciesoxygenate fuel

polarization resistance

oxide substrate

carbon dioxide

activate carbon

cell designgas turbine

metal salt

feed gas

membrane-electrode assembly

lithium saltbipolar plate

anode catalyst

fuel cell vehicle

cathode side

cell voltage

electrolyte material

crude oil

congo red

tem image

organic waste

energy ratio

formic acid

lithium bis

char yield

water oxidation

symmetric cell

climate change

carbon material

pour point

power density

catalyst amount

wind energy

band gap

fossil energy

h-2 production

ignition delay

coal particlepd/c catalyst

methyl decanoateelectrochemical impedance spectrum

lithium battery

shunt resistance

carbon emission

heat pump

solar cell

neat biodiesel

lithium-ion battery

fuel economy

reflect shock wavesingle-cylinder engine

wind farm

cold filter

electric vehicle

work fluidlithium anode

chp system

exergy loss

solar cell efficiency

coal char

co2 injection

pouch cell

storage device

brake power

coal seam

gravimetric capacity

wood pelletbiogas plant

polymer binderwet biomass

rankine cycle

combustion efficiency

graphene sheet

levelised costli/s cell

lignocellulosic biomass

photoactive layer

graphene material

waste heat recovery

graphene nanosheet

carbon footprint

post-combustion capturerenewable electricity

smart grid

graphene oxide

li-s batteryOcc

urre

nce

inte

nsity

Dynamics

lithium-ion battery

graphene nanosheet

Assessment of significance and dynamism (1)Case of scientific and technological development of power

engineering


Mature areas Drivers

Niche areas Weak signals: less significant, but fast-growing

Estimates based on text statistics

and high-level network analysis

- using articles in international scientific journals

air pollution

15

Trends

Assessment of significance and dynamism (2)Case of S&T development of power engineering


reference electrode

methyl methacrylate

SEI layer

gas composition

catalytic activity

oxidation stabilityionic conductivity

electronic conductivity

dsc analysis

oleic acid

electrolyte membrane

iron oxide

electric conductivity

direct injection

external surface

polyunsaturated fatty acid

electron mobility

unburned hydrocarbon

zno nanowireenergy infrastructure

gas flow

thick film

conductive layer

acid catalyst

fluid flow

atomic force microscopy

photocatalytic reactionenzyme loading

carbon black

zinc oxide

commercial catalyst

band gap

air flow

sulphuric acid

carbon dioxide

conventional plant

methanol permeability

industrial waste

tin oxide

storage device

anode catalyst

pressure drop

perovskite layer

heat source

mole fraction

layer thickness

fuel ethanol

solid fuel

electrical resistance

heat transfer

conventional fuel

gravimetric capacitance

fossil fuel

carbon fiber

discharge cycle

carbon atom

solid sorbent

bottom cycle

solid carbon

peak power

heat transfer fluid

diffusion flame

fuel consumption

zno nanoparticle

power plant

climate change

external resistance

global warming

power converter

gas engine

sorption process

solar cell

steam explosion

hybrid vehicle

fuel blend

wave power

ion battery

reaction product

storage system

full cell

silicon nanowire

buffer layer

wind turbine

nitrogen removal

combine heat

corn stover

fuel quality

propylene carbonate

organic electrolyte

flame condition

gas yield

greenhouse gas

sodium‐ion battery

co2 separation

energy mix

zno film

wind farm

sulfuric acidion exchangepropionic acid

energy penalty

oxalic acid

graphene layer

torrefied biomass

base solar cell

bis imide

air cathode

ionic liquid

smart grid

biofuel production

renewable electricity

Occ

urre

nce

inte

nsity

Dynamics

Drivers

Weak signals: less significant, but fast-growing

Identifying trends and weak signals about possible "technological breakthroughs"

Mature areas

Niche areas

- using patentsthin film

graphene layer

Sodium-ion battery

globalwarming

catalytic activity

Source: HSE ISSEK iFORA 16

MappingFuture occupations

Trends

Forecasting the structure of employees by occupation

17

Trends

Occ

urre

nce

inte

nsity

Dynamics

Assessment of significance and dynamism (3)Case of skills

Mature areas

Drivers

Niche areas Weak signals: less significant, but fast-growing

- using articles in international scientific journals

based on text statistics and high-

level network analysis

Digital and ITMultidisciplinary

HR-management

Programming

Cost management



Trends

Identification of the origin, development and extinction of S&T fields

Structural changes analysisCase of trends in solar energy

2010 20152014201320122011

Life-cycle analysisCase of new technologies

19

Trends


2005 2013201120092007

Grants Professional mediaResearch articles Patents

2015

Unmanned aerial vehicles

Machine learning

Perovskite solar cells

Synthetic biology

Precision agriculture

Absorption cross section

Activation product

Alpha particleApical meristem

Atomic massAtomic nucleus

Atomic number

Beta decay

Binding energy

Boiling water reactor

Boric acid

Calcium fluoride

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide equivalent

Carbon emissions

Carbon footprint

Carbon tax

Chain reaction

Chemical explosive

Chernobyl disaster

Climate change

Cooling tower

Coulomb force

Critical mass

Crystal structure

Dam failure

Decay chain

Decay heat

Dirty bomb

District heating

Electric charge

Electric power generation

Electrical generator

Electrical grid

Electromagnetic radiationElectromagnetic waves

Electrostatic force

Energy security

Enriched uranium

Europium oxide

Explosive materialFirst strike

Fission productFly ash

Free neutron

Fuel rodFukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Galvanic corrosion

General Electric

Generation IV reactor

Greenhouse gas

Hanford Site

Heat engine

IPCC

ITER

Ionization energy

LCOE

Land mine

MOX fuel

Mass number

Molten salt

Neutron captureNeutron emission

Nitric acid

Non-proliferation treaty

Nuclear binding energy

Nuclear power plant

Nuclear testing

Passively safe

Pauli exclusion principle

Power grid

Reaction mass

Thermal conductivity measurement

Uranium ore

ARTICLES &PATENTS

MEDIA

1e+02

0.1 10.0

Comparison of media and S&T informationCase of nuclear power


Trends

1e-02

20

Rel

ativ

e to

pic

popu

larit

y in

med

ia p

ublic

atio

ns a

nd a

naly

tical

repo

rts

Relative topic popularity in academic papers and patents

Trends

Niche areas Weak signals

Stable areas

Low Medium High

Low

Hig

hFr

eque

ncy

of

occu

rren

ce

Growth rate of occurrence

Trend map of the world topics based on patents

Source: intelligentFOResightAnalytics (iFORA) system (IP owner - NRU HSE ISSEK)

Electric vehicles

development is still a highly potential topic in the world

Growing interest in cloud computing

Alternative energy is a world stable direction

An important feature in a variety of chemical

and physical processes, but might it be linked

with superconductivity?

21

Trends

Niche areas Weak signals

Stable areas

Low Medium High

Low

Hig

hFr

eque

ncy

of

occu

rren

ce

Growth rate of occurrence

Trend map of the RSA topics based on patents


A cost-effective way to generate

hot water

Precious metals, copper, uranium generated from

extraction

Chemical compounds used for soil fertilization

Significant, but stable topics

22

Comparison of the world and RSA technological trends based on patents


Patents which appear more frequently in RSA

Patents which appear more frequently in the world

RSA

. Fre

quen

cy o

f occ

urre

nce

World. Frequency of occurrence23

Trends


Target analysis (socio-economic, managerial and other targets) and the road analysis

Case of medicine

Market estimates

25

• Quantitative and qualitative market estimates

• Identification of product portfolios

• Identifying promising markets

• Analysis of regional markets

• Integrated assessment of company performance

• Forecasts


Quantitative market assessmentsbased on the aggregation of more than 2000 reviews of industrial markets

26

14,3%5,8%

Advanced materials

Basic chemistry

Automotive Industry and Transport Engineering

ElectronicsMedical equipment

Energetics

ICT

Constructing

Agriculture

Aerospace and defense industry

Automated process control system

Total market volume$ 32,067.5 billion

Market estimates

Industrial automation

Factories of the future$ 205,4 billion

Integration of quantitative and qualitative market estimates


Market estimates

Aver

age

annu

al g

row

th ra

te, %

Significance in the articles

Correlation of the market parameters and S&T capacities

aggregation of market reviews

CCS in Power Generation

Battery Energy Storage Systems

Database as a Service

Carbon Nanotube

Hearing Aids

Aquaculture Market

Heat Transfer Fluids

Industrial Robotics

Area for science and technology support

Area for project finance

Niche areas Area for stimulation of demand

2017

Identification of the product portfoliosCase of tank technologies

28

Second half of the 20th century


Market estimates

Identifying promising markets (1): startups

29

Market estimates


Extracting companies names

Estimation of maturity

Unstructured information (full texts)

Databases

Identification of business models

Selection of sources and amounts of

financing

Identification of networks of cooperation

Structural market forecasts

Reputation analysis Mapping of links

Case of urban farming

$30 billionworld market in 2030The share of Russia can be up to 2.5%

Identifying promising markets (2)Case of startups in aviation

30

Market estimates


Advanced Vehicle and Engine InnovationAero Centro AircraftAero GlassAero InfinityAeropoint AcademyAerostarterAI Intellectual PropertyAimfill InternationalAir SomaliandAirbus BizLabAirDBAirdogAirHelpAirlines TechnologyAirlyAirMod ConsultingAirscapeAirtime AircraftAirwareAlba OrbitalAlpha Red Solutions Sdn BhdAMIntegrated AerialAn1ken AviationAstranisATP Flight SchoolAustralian Corporate Jet CentresAvAirAviAsia Aviation SolutionsAviation Fueling ServiceAviation InfinityAviation Safety AdvancementsAviationStore.inAvion Media GroupAvionixAvSKYBestAVIA

Bid AeroBiz AirlinesBook With BigglesBoomCaptainOpsCARIBLiftClimaCellCoavmi.comCorreyvuelaDARTdrones Flight AcademyDrone Industry InsightsdronedeployDroneRushEasy FlyEasyFBOEHangEncel Space SystemsEncore JetsenhanceaviationExpertJet CharterFBO Sales and Advisory ServicesFerris AviationFlight CenterOneFlighttimeFlyEasyFlyezee.comFlying Software LabsFlyPilotGalaxy Unmanned SystemsGlobalpunditsGreen Tech AircraftHeading 370 ClothingHelloJetHorizon Airport ServicesHubworkair

IBS Flightcases

ICON AircraftImmaculateFlightInnerVision RoboticsInnovative BinariesInternational Aviation GroupJet GeniusJet RebellionJetHuntJetInsightJetonairJetSuiteJetwayJETWISEJuniper UnmannedKespry Inc.KleanKraft, L.L.C.Lake Zone Charter ServicesLilium AviationMilewaysMRO Exchange LLC/MROmarketplaceMySkyForceNetSkyNextGreatTripNimble AircraftNorth Bridge AviationOFFCRAFTOpenJetOpJetsPaperclip DesignParaZeroPartsbasePilot AI LabsPilotNeededPlaneLogiXPredictive Aviation Analytics

PRENAV

Qualified TechnologiesReliance Air ChartersRotaradarRPAS Solutions

Shen Zhen Manly TechSia AerospaceSibellopticsSkycatchSkycorpSkyfrontSkytechSparewingsStratos GroupSurf AirSurfrepsSwift NavigationSynapseMXSYNERJETSTake AirTallamondTalos AviationTekinnoTestUThis Will FlyVector SpaceVenus AircraftVertical AIVibes AirVIRES AeronauticsVUELOJETWaxwing AvionicsWingly

Wrong Bros. Flight Training WingYAMJETSZee.AeroZyenaLABS

Startups

Reputation analysis

Startup Negativity of mentions

Number of negativementions

Positivity ofmentions

Number of positive

mentionsSurf Air -26 7 185 32JetSuite -14 7 98 31Airware -11 6 35 17ICON Aircraft -9 5 44 15Aero Glass -3 3 20 8Skytech -6 5 10 6SYNERJETS -2 2 16 5SynapseMX -4 1 9 3EHang -6 1 3 2Flighttime -4 1 3 1International Aviation Group -1 1 2 1EasyFBO -1 1 3 1Airlines Technology -1 1Aviation Fueling Service 7 2OpenJet 1 1Partsbase 2 1JetHunt 2 1

Surf Air is the All-You-Can-Fly private air travel membership, providing frequent regional business and leisure travelers with a sophisticated and hassle-free air travel experience that saves valuable time and money

JetSuite’s vision to provide the freedom and exhilaration of private air travel to more people than ever is realized

Business models

Identifying promising markets (3)Case of startups in agriculture

31

LEISA-technologies

Urban farming

Precision agriculture

Technologies of capacity utilization and recycling

Technologies of synthetic food production

Big Data analysis, new electronics and robotics, unmanned aerial vehicles, nano- and picosatellites, swarm intelligence, high-precision weather prediction

AgribleSkycision………….

Vertical farming, robotic greenhouses, home hydro and aeroponics, closed production systems, including aquaponics

Freight FarmsAero Farms

………….Organic agriculture, integrated protection against pests, water and soil-conservation agriculture, restoration of fertility of degraded soils

StriderPhytech

………….

Utilization of wastes from agricultural production, fisheries, food industry, including obtaining valuable products of fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals

WISErgHarvest Power

………….

Based on supercomputations, “Big Data" and machine learning, robotization of storage and transportation operations

aWhereAgralogics………….

Technologies of system integration of logistics

management

From waste, chemical raw materials and new non-traditional sources of raw materials

Memphis MeatsHampton Creek

………….

StartupsPerspective technologies

Market estimates


Analysis of regional marketsCase of gardening in greenhouses

32

Market estimates

Vegetable crops

Reg

ions

Comparison of regional markets capacity, productive capacity and other indicators


33

Integrated assessment of company performanceCase of potash fertilizer market

Market estimates

Mar

ket s

hare

of U

ralk

alii

n th

epo

tash

ferti

lizer

mar

ket

Source of information

Aggregation of the indicators from heterogenous sourcesSource: HSE ISSEK iFORA

Actual values and obsolete forecast estimates

Current forecast estimates

Billio

ns li

ters

34

Forecast estimates (1)Case of ethanol production in Brazil

Market estimates

Aggregation of the forecast indicators from heterogenous sources (consensus-forecast)


year of forecast publication

35

Forecast estimates (2)Case of the Internet of Things

Actual values and obsolete forecast estimates

Corridor of current forecast estimates

Systemization of a large number of forecasts for any indicators from various sources

Source of information

Num

ber o

f dev

ices

con

nect

ed to

the

Inte

rnet

of t

hing

s, B

illion

pcs

.

Market estimates


Forecasts

36

• Timeline of the future events

• Drivers, barriers, effects

• Consensus-forecasts

• Forecasting consumer properties of products / services

Source: HSE ISSEK iFORA 37

Timeline of the future eventsForecasts

Robotics

Drivers, barriers, effects The case of alternative power plants for vehicles

38

Forecasts

Technological evolution: the use of Dimethyl ether as a fuel

Effects Market size Drivers

TRENDLETTERS: https://issek.hse.ru/trendletter/Source: HSE ISSEK iFORA

The beginning of use ofDimethyl ether

Decree of the Moscow government about use of Dimethyl ether

Justified the use of Dimethyl ether as fuel for diesel engines

“Methanol economy” concept by George Andrew Olah

Chinese standards for use Dimethyl ether as fuel

In some countries Dimethyl ether is serious competitor fordiesel fuel

The non-freezing fuel based on Dimethyl ether was created In Russia

bnwill reach the global market volume by 2020 (average annual growth rate16-19% in 2015-2020)

Barriers• Some unsolved problems with storage • Relatively high market price • In the production of Dimethyl ether is

spent a much larger amount of raw materials gas than for other fuel products

• Environmental standards become stricter• The use of Dimethyl ether does not

require a serious structural modificationof diesel engines and installation ofspecial filters

• Raw materials for the production ofDimethyl ether is a gas

• Significant reduction of air pollution

• Increase of Dimethyl ether economy (up to 5%)

• Optimization of production costs and transportation of fuel (reduced in 10 times)

• Creation of additional workplaces in the mining engineering

39

Genetically modified salmonForecasts


GM salmon R&D

Approval of the product in USAApproval of the

product in Canada

The cultivation of GM salmon in circulating

systems – new industrial standard

Submission of regulatory study to

the FDA

1989 2003 2013 2015 2024

Relative growth rate of AquAdvantage Salmon compared to:Traditional aquaculture salmon – twice faster

Wild salmon - 11 times faster

Days (from first feeding)

Source: AquaBounty Technologies, 2016

Weight (g) AquAdvantage and standard salmon

Competitive advantage

Source: Orbit patent database, 2016

0

10

20

30

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015First priority year

Salmon-related biotechnologies (patent families)

OECD/IEA (2014)

OECD/IEA (2004)

OECD/IEA (2005)

OECD/IEA (2008)

OECD/IEA (2009)

OECD/IEA (2008)

OECD/IEA (2009)

Wang & Lin (2014)

OECD/IEA (2009) OECD/IEA (2013)

OECD/IEA (2014) OECD/IEA (2014)

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (2014)

OECD/IEA (2014) Wu & Yang (2014)

OECD/IEA (2013)

MARKETLINE (2015)

OECD/IEA (2014)

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (2014)

OECD/IEA (2014)

OECD/IEA (2009)

OECD/IEA (2009)

Yu et al. (2014)

MARKETLINE (2015)

OECD/IEA (2009)

OECD/IEA (2009)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

An automatically compiled consensus-forecast shows that China will remain strongly dependent on gas imports

Объем Volume of consumption

Volume of production

Source of information, year of publication

Billio

n m

3

40

Consensus-forecastsCase of production and consumption of gas in China

Forecasts


Forecasting consumer properties of products / servicesCase of medical sensors

Evolution of technologies and their characteristics

37

Forecasts

2000sensors

optical

magnetic

2010sensors

wireless

wearable

2017sensors

tactile

biocompatiblephysiological

2017 20402030

Technology roadmappingEstimation of the probability of the implementation of new technologies,

product components,

consumer properties

Drawing up independent ratingsCase of Index of regional readiness for the future

42

…

Benchmarking and risk assessment


Region Index of regional readiness for the future

Rank Magnitude

Normalized value of the indicatorPlanning horizon of regional

strategies

Technological orientation of

regional strategies

Network analysis

43

• Centers of excellence identification

• Mapping of network communications,cooperation and affiliation analysis

44

Centers of excellence identificationRussian research and educational organizations

Network analysis


45

Centers of excellence identification (2): spheres of interests of organizations

on the basis of patent applications

Network analysis

ICT

Pharmaceuticals

Electronics

Chemical production


Identifying strategies for diversifying companies

46

Mapping of network communications: communications between organizations through personalities

Case of aviation

Network analysis

Identification of centers of excellence, stakeholders, affiliationsSource: HSE ISSEK iFORA

47

Mapping of network communications: communications between organizations through personalities

Case of aviation

Network analysis

Identification of stakeholders, affiliations

Network nodes—organizations, Edges — individuals


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Big data intelligent analysis system