137
For peer review only Campylobacter epidemiology: A descriptive study reviewing one million cases in England and Wales between 1989 to 2011 Journal: BMJ Open Manuscript ID: bmjopen-2012-001179 Article Type: Research Date Submitted by the Author: 20-Mar-2012 Complete List of Authors: Nichols, Gordon; Health Protection Agency, Gastrointestinal Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Richardson, Judith; HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK., Laboratory of Gastrointestinal Infections Sheppard, Samuel; University of Oxford, The Tinbergen Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK, Department of Zoology Lane, Chris; HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK., Gastrointestinal, Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Sarran, Christophe; Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB UK, <b>Primary Subject Heading</b>: Epidemiology Secondary Subject Heading: Infectious diseases, Public health Keywords: EPIDEMIOLOGY, Gastrointestinal infections < GASTROENTEROLOGY, Epidemiology < INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Public health < INFECTIOUS DISEASES, MICROBIOLOGY, Microbiology < PATHOLOGY For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml BMJ Open

BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Campylobacter epidemiology: A descriptive study reviewing

one million cases in England and Wales between 1989 to

2011

Journal: BMJ Open

Manuscript ID: bmjopen-2012-001179

Article Type: Research

Date Submitted by the Author: 20-Mar-2012

Complete List of Authors: Nichols, Gordon; Health Protection Agency, Gastrointestinal Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Richardson, Judith; HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale

Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK., Laboratory of Gastrointestinal Infections Sheppard, Samuel; University of Oxford, The Tinbergen Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK, Department of Zoology Lane, Chris; HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK., Gastrointestinal, Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Sarran, Christophe; Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB UK,

<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:

Epidemiology

Secondary Subject Heading: Infectious diseases, Public health

Keywords:

EPIDEMIOLOGY, Gastrointestinal infections < GASTROENTEROLOGY,

Epidemiology < INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Public health < INFECTIOUS DISEASES, MICROBIOLOGY, Microbiology < PATHOLOGY

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

Page 2: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 1 17th

February 2011

Campylobacter epidemiology: A descriptive study reviewing one million cases in England and

Wales between 1989 to 2011

Gordon L. Nichols† ђ

, Judith F. Richardson†, Samuel K. Sheppard

‡, Chris Lane

†, Christoff Sarran

φ

† HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK.

[email protected]

‡ Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, The Tinbergen Building, South Parks Road, Oxford

OX1 3PS, UK and Institute of Life Science, College of Medicine, Swansea University, Swansea. SA2

8PP. [email protected]

φ Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB UK [email protected]

ђ Corresponding author

The text is 3,953 words, the abstract is 300 words, the title is 15 words and there are 50 references,

2 tables and 4 figures.

Running title: Review of a million Campylobacter cases

Page 1 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 3: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 2 17th

February 2011

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To review Campylobacter cases in England and Wales over two decades and examine

the main drivers implicated in the changing epidemiology.

Design: A descriptive study of Campylobacter patients. Cases over three years were linked

anonymously to post code, population density, deprivation indices and census data. Cases over five

years were anonymously linked to local weather exposure estimates.

Setting: Patients were from general practice hospital and environmental health investigations

through primary diagnostic laboratories across England and Wales between 1989 and 2011.

Participants: There were 1,109,406 cases.

Outcome measures: Description of changes in Campylobacter epidemiology over 23 years and how

the main drivers may influence these.

Results: There was an increase in Campylobacter cases over the last 23 years, with the largest

increase in people over 50 years. Changes in the underlying population have contributed to this,

including the impacts of population increases after WW1, WW2 and the “baby boom” of the 1960’s.

A recent increase in risk or ascertainment within this population has caused an increase in cases in

all age groups from 2004 to 2011. The seasonal increase in cases between weeks 18 (Early May) and

22 (Early June) was consistent across ages, years and regions and was most marked in children and

in more rural regions. Campylobacter prevalence by week in each region correlated with

temperature two weeks before. There were higher prevalences in areas with a low population

density, and those that were less deprived. Data from sero-phage and MLST typing shows a few

common types and many uncommon types.

Conclusions: The drivers influencing seasonality, age distribution, population density, socioeconomic

and long term differences are diverse and their relative contributions remain to be established.

Surveillance and typing provide insights into Campylobacter epidemiology and sources of infection,

providing a sound basis for targeted interventions.

Trial registration: Not registered

Page 2 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 4: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 3 17th

February 2011

Significance of this study

What is already known about the subject?

• Campylobacter is the commonest bacterial cause of diarrhoea, affecting about half a million people

annually.

• Chicken is thought to be the most common source of infection and the most common vehicle for

transmission while environmental sources are suspected to play an important role the seasonality.

• A few types are common and many types are rare

What are the new findings?

• Campylobacter is increasing in older people, particularly men, and population structure is partly

driving this increase

• Antibiotic resistance has increased over recent years

• There are lower rates of reporting in more densely populated areas and more deprived areas

• The distribution of types suggests immunity may be important

How might it impact on clinical practice in the foreseeable future?

• The disease burden may be underestimated due to low reporting in deprived areas that may reflect

poor access to healthcare or prior infection.

Page 3 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 5: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 4 17th

February 2011

Introduction

Campylobacter is the commonest bacterial cause of gastroenteritis in England and Wales and has

been the subject of extensive research, with over 7,500 peer reviewed articles with Campylobacter

in the title. It has been estimated that in the UK there were over half a million cases in the

community in 2008-9 and around 80,000 GP consultations (1). Chicken has been implicated as the

source of infection in up to 80% of infections (2) and as the risk factor associated with transmission

in 41% (3). Actions to reduce the contamination of chickens in New Zealand have shown dramatic

reductions in human cases (4;5). Despite this the epidemiology of Campylobacter remains

complicated and some of the features seem difficult to explain. These include the strong seasonal

increase in cases (6), the higher rates of infection in men (6), the changing age distribution (7), the

higher rates of infection and different risk factors in rural than urban environments and the greater

seasonality in rural than urban environments (4;8-14). The study was set up to review the data

reported to national surveillance on human Campylobacter infections in England and Wales over the

last 22 years to provide an overview of trends and possible drivers.

Methods

Campylobacter surveillance data reported from diagnostic laboratories in England and Wales from

1989 to 2011 were extracted from the Oracle (LabBase) database and analysed. Most of the analyses

were for the period 1989 to 2009, but annual cases were extended to 2011 (2011 data provisional).

All were laboratory confirmed cases, most were symptomatic and included patients with extra-

intestinal infections. Standard antimicrobial testing methods, used in primary diagnostic

laboratories, were predominantly disc diffusion methods. Where speciation was reported it was

conducted in diagnostic laboratories using conventional phenotypic methods. Cases were linked by

postcode to Lower and Medium Level Super Output areas (LSOA; MSOA), deprivation index, ethnic

origin, population density and census data using data held on the Office for National Statistics

website http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=6 . Post codes of the diagnostic laboratories

involved in primary isolation were used to link cases to local weather parameters held by the Met

Office for 2005 to 2009. Temporal data was adjusted from day of year using a seven day rolling

mean, systematic adjustments for the reduced reporting over Bank Holidays and for long term trend.

Phenotypic typing results were on human isolates, predominantly from samples taken in defined

studies rather than during routine sampling. The was data for the period of 1989 to 2009 and

included patients in a Campylobacter sentinel surveillance project (15), a case-control study (3) and

miscellaneous other sources. The majority of isolates were collected in a systematic way from all age

groups although the case-control study was confined to adults over 18 years old. Typing methods

were conducted, using standard protocols. These included serotyping, and phage typing, conducted

at HPA Colindale (16;17), and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) (18). In MLST, the DNA sequence is

determined for a section of 7 housekeeping genes positioned around the genome. This provides a 7

locus allelic profile, or sequence type (ST), for each isolate, and STs are grouped into Clonal

Complexes (CC) by genetic similarity. Data from clinical samples are archived on the PubMLST

database along with the STs of isolates from other sources and figures are those entered in the

database to September 2011. This provides an openly accessible resource for investigating the

genetic structure in Campylobacter populations.

Page 4 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 6: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 5 17th

February 2011

Results

Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and

2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and were associated

with diarrhoea. There were 82 Campylobacter related deaths (0.008%). Overall, 242 (0.25%) of

isolates were from infections involving a sterile body site, including blood (1665), brain or CSF (67),

wounds (45), cardiac prostheses (15), peritoneum (6), joints (3). A majority of C. fetus cases (61 of

72; 85%) were invasive and 75% of C. fetus patients were over 50 years compared to 44% of all

Campylobacter isolates. Invasive infections were below 0.13% of all infections for people under 60

years old (1013/793,874), but represented 0.37 of those between 60 and 79 (539/145,533) and

0.78% of infections in people over 80 years (190/24,252). CNS cases were spread across the age

groups in a broadly similar distribution to non-CNS cases when examined as a percentage of all cases

(Figure 1a), whereas fatal cases were more common in people over 60 years than in other ages

(Figure 1b). There were 48 Campylobacter patients with Guillain-Barré or Miller-Fisher syndromes.

Because reporting is passive and reliant on clinical details being recorded there is likely to be under-

reporting and differences in ascertainment between regions.

Published studies have indicated that the rate of Guillain-Barré syndrome in Campylobacter

infections, when examined using GP data and in the general population (19;20), is higher by a factor

of 10-40 times in England with an estimated 1.17 cases per 1000 per year (21). Three patients with

Campylobacter had haemolytic uremic syndrome, but without evidence that Campylobacter was the

cause.

Long term changes. There were 1,109,406 laboratory confirmed cases from all body sites reported

to national surveillance between 1989 and 2011. Cases in 2011 were 45% above 2004 figures and 3%

above 2010 figures (Figure 1c). The cases rose from 33,280 in 1989 to a peak of 58,235 in 2000

before dropping to 44,544 in 2004 and rising to a maximum 64,582 in 2011 (2011 data provisional).

There was a marked long term increase in the percentage of cases in people over 50 years old, with

a decline in the incidence in babies and children under 10 years from 2000 and a subsequent

increase from 2006 to 2010. Figure 1c shows an increase in cases within all three age groups

between 2004 and 2011 (<10, 36%; 10-49, 25%; 50+, 81%), but for the period 1994 to 2000 a 17%

decrease in babies and children under 10 years, an increase in ages 10 to 49 of 28%, and an increase

in people over 50 by 75%.

Age distribution. There were 14% more reported Campylobacter cases in men than women and a

1.14 M/F ratio across most ages (Figure 1e). This was mirrored by the age specific prevalence which

showed a 30% higher prevalence in males compared to females across most age groups (Figure 1j).

The age distribution varied geographically, with London having more infections in young adults and

less in people over 40 (Figure 1f). The age distribution of travel related cases showed lower rates in

children and people over 60 and more cases in people between 20 and 35 years old (Figure 1g). The

age distribution of cases between 1989 and 2010 differed significantly between Salmonella and

Campylobacter, with a higher proportion of Salmonella cases in children and a higher proportion of

Campylobacter cases in adults (Figure 1h). The age structure of cases has shifted over 20 years with

more infection in older people in recent years (Figure 1i)., for example comparison of Campylobacter

data from 2008 (Figure 1j) with 2008 population estimates (Figure 1k) shows the impact of the age

structure of the population on the prevalence in 2008 (Figure 1l). The steady increase in the

Page 5 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 7: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 6 17th

February 2011

percentage of people over 50 years of age (Figure 1m) partly reflects aging of the underlying

population. When examined as an age specific prevalence there has been an increase in infections in

older men (Figure 1n). The seasonality of Campylobacter was much more marked in young children

than in other ages (Figure 2).

Typing. Campylobacter isolates from human cases between 1989 and 2009 (29,081/994,791; 2.9%))

could be differentiated into 64 serotypes (HS), 86 phage types (PT) and 949 combined HS/PT types.

Isolates of C. jejuni contained 57 serotypes, 80 phage types and 866 HS/PT types and two thirds of

serotypes of C. jejuni were represented in seven serotypes (Table 1). C. coli contained 25 serotypes,

30 phage types and 102 HS/PT types with five serotypes making up 84% of isolates (Table 1). When

the combined ST/PT of typable isolates were examined then no type exceeded 9% of the total typed

C. jejuni and 18% of typed C. coli strains. Among the combined HS/PT types most isolates had few

representatives (Figure 3a) although the distribution differed when HS and PT were examined

separately (Figure 3b). Only 18,013 of 26,688 (67%) C. jejuni isolates and 1,936 of 2,393 (81%) C. coli

isolates were typable. When combined as HS/PT type this decreased to 16,362 of 26,688 (61%),

making phenotyping a poor tool for use in epidemiological investigation. Most of the HS/PT typing

was undertaken between 2000 and 2004.

For the MLST data all human cases reported on the PubMLST database were grouped by the seven

sequenced genes (Figure 3c-3j), the ST and CC (figure 3k; Table 1). Up to September 2011, there

were 33 CCs and 757 STs among isolates from people with Campylobacter submitted to the

PubMLST website http://pubmlst.org/campylobacter/. 94.8% of C. coli were of one type (ST- 828

complex) and 34.2% of C. jejuni of two types (ST- 21 complex and ST-257 complex). While most

isolates clustered into one of the predominant CCs, the STs showed a distribution with a few

common types and many types with low numbers of isolates (Figure 3c-j). This may partly reflect the

submission patterns for the PubMLST database, with ‘rare’ STs over represented as a proportion of

all isolates, although a similar distribution was found for the combined HS and PT types (Figure 3a)

where this was not an issue. The distribution of individual serotypes and phage types (Figure 3b)

mirrored that of the CCs (Figure 3i).

Antimicrobial resistance. Over the period from 1989 to 2009 there was an increase in the

percentage of Campylobacter isolates that were fully or intermediately resistant to ampicillin,

ciprofloxacin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline and erythromycin (Figure 4a). The percentage of strains

which were resistant to ciprofloxacin was higher in people who had recently travelled abroad

(1042/1601; 65%) compared to those who hadn’t (2005/6530; 31%) and where travel status was not

recorded (28,646/90,095; 32%). Isolates with high rates of resistance to ciprofloxacin were found in

people who had travelled to India (79%), Egypt (79%), Spain (78%) and Thailand (80%).

Weekends, bank holidays and other holidays. The onset date was not reported for most

Campylobacter infections; the specimen date was recorded in surveillance. Specimens with any

weekday ranged from 16.8%-22.3%; average 19.0) of all cases whereas cases were less common on

Saturday (2.5%-4.1% (average 3.2) and Sunday (1.4-2.1; average 1.7%), presumably reflecting

problems accessing medical services on weekends. This would include access to GP, hospital or

diagnostic laboratory. The reporting of infections was on average 28% lower in the seven days of

Bank Holiday weeks, presumably reflecting difficulties in accessing medical services. There was extra

reporting in the week following some Bank Holiday weeks, suggesting that some cases are merely

Page 6 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 8: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 7 17th

February 2011

delayed by the holiday (Figure 4b). Other school holidays (e.g. half term) may have some effect on

case reporting but are more difficult to determine they are arranged locally rather than nationally.

There was no long term trend in the Bank Holiday effect. August bank holidays are during a period

when there is no school attendance and school holidays are therefore less likely to contribute.

Seasonality. Cases were normalised to take account of day of week, bank holidays and long term

trend. This was applied to daily infection rates to create a well defined time series that shows a

regular seasonal increase in the late spring with some of the features of an annual epidemic (Figure

4c), as previously observed (22), and is followed by a gradual decline over the rest of the year. The

timing of the increase varies slightly between regions and between years. The increased rate of

infection between weeks 18 (Early May) and 22 (Early June) is consistently seen every year in all

regions but is more pronounced in young children (Figure 4d, 4e), in some regions than others, and

was less marked in London (Figure 4f). Cases in this period represent 8 to 12% of all annual cases and

show a dramatic change over a few weeks in the exposure of people to infection, as short term

changes in ascertainment or susceptibility are unlikely. There was a relationship between

Campylobacter prevalence and temperature that was partly a reflection of the higher seasonality in

summer months when it is warmer (Figure 4k) but could also represent a temperature sensitive

driver.

Post code prevalence. The prevalence determined through patient postcode records has been used

to demonstrate maps of medium (MSOAs) and lower level super output areas (LSOAs) for 2009

(Figure 4g; 4h). Campylobacter prevalence in these figures was affected by areas with low post code

reporting that can be most clearly seen in Figure 4h. These maps show some areas with much

higher rates of infection locally (320 to 1290 cases per 100,000) that were not all in areas of low

population density. When MSOAs were examined, 76.5% of the areas had between 10 and 150

Campylobacter cases per 100,000 per year, with 10.9% showing <10 per 100,000 per year and 12.6%

having between 150 and 560 per 100,000 per year. However, in 2009 only 76% of patients had an

associated postcode so the actual prevalence for MSOA’s was higher than this. In addition the

prevalence was higher in young children than in other ages, based on national data without the bias

due to incomplete postcode reporting. Overall prevalence in England and Wales for 2009 was 105

per 100,000 per year.

Population density, urban/rural distribution, ethnicity and deprivation. For years 2007 to 2009

data, population density and deprivation were derived from the postcode data. Cases of

Campylobacter per 100,000 population were higher in areas of low population density (rural)

compared to areas of high population density (urban settings) (Figure 4i). Less postcode reporting in

areas of high population density or deprivation could introduce some bias, however, subset analysis

of areas with over 90% postcode reporting still showed higher prevalence in areas of lower

population density (Figure 4j). The reason for the urban / rural difference remains unclear but could

reflect proximity to ruminants and other farmed animals or differences in access to healthcare.

There was an inverse relationship between Campylobacter prevalence and the Oxford Index of

Multiple Deprivation. People with Campylobacter from deprived areas were less frequently reported

to surveillance than in less deprived areas (Figure 4j). The reason could reflect different diets, prior

exposure conferring some resistance or reduced access to healthcare. The prevalence of

Campylobacter in communities where more than 95% of the population was “white British” was

Page 7 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 9: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 8 17th

February 2011

greater than those where the percentage was less than 50%, possibly due to poorer access to

healthcare, greater susceptibility or increased exposure.

Overseas travel. Overseas travel to both EU and non-EU countries was associated with almost a fifth

of all Campylobacter infections in data from enhanced surveillance. Spain remains the country with

the largest source of travel related cases. Routine surveillance of travel related cases shows poor and

inconsistent ascertainment. Less is known about the risk factors responsible for travel related

Campylobacter than from indigenous infections and the risks may vary between countries visited.

DISCUSSION

The reasons for large long term changes in Campylobacter cases, the spring increase, the increase in

older people, the higher cases in rural communities, and more cases in less deprived people could be

related to features of diagnosis and reporting (commonly referred to as ascertainment) or of disease

within the population as a result of increased exposure or susceptibility (here referred to as risk)

(Table 2). The increase in cases in all three age groups between 2004 and 2009, can be compared to

the period 1994 to 2000 where there was a decrease in cases in babies and children under 10 years,

the increase in cases in people aged 10 to 49, and the large increase in people over 50 (Figure 1c).

This suggests the drivers are complex and may include changes in attribution and risk. It has been

suggested that some of the cases in children may be less likely to attend a physician and have a

specimen taken as a result of the triaging associated with NHS Direct (7), although the people

responding to NHS Direct are a small proportion of those with diarrhoea (1).

The increase in reporting of patients over 50 years between 2004 and 2010 is dramatic and may be

linked to proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use (Table 2). These drugs may increase people’s susceptibility

to Campylobacter (3;8;23-25) and the older population group are more likely to be taking these

drugs than the younger ones. The underlying demographic drive seen in Figure 1m, where the

increased birth rate after World War 1 and World War 2 and the 1960’s baby boom can be seen as

diagonal lines, shows the impact of population size on Campylobacter cases over the years. This

demographic drive is likely to contribute to the age distribution of cases, as the number of older

people in the population is increasing, but may also influence year-on-year changes. The economic

downturn which began in 2008 may have changed people’s eating habits and exposed people to

foods that are more commonly contaminated with Campylobacter. Alternatively the chicken

products within retail shops may have become more contaminated, or there could be increased

consumption of more contaminated products like chicken liver. There may also be effects resulting

from a reduction in GP consultations for infectious intestinal disease (26). The increase in cases since

2004 seems to be across all ages. People may be eating out more than they were twenty years ago

and travel abroad is more common. Some of the discontinuities in laboratory reporting may have an

impact on long term trends as the data shows particular periods where reporting was incomplete.

However, there is also evidence from laboratories that have consistently reported over the 20 year

surveillance period that the rates of long term change were similar to those for all laboratories.

There could have been systematic change in recent years in the efficiency of isolation, either

through reduced specimen delay or improved culture media or culture conditions (e.g. atmosphere).

In a longitudinal study of infectious intestinal disease, detection of Campylobacter was better with

culture and/or PCR than with culture alone (1). In addition there was better isolation by culture

alone in community cases than in those presenting to GPs when compared to culture and PCR,

Page 8 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 10: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 9 17th

February 2011

possibly reflecting greater delay in GP samples being sent for culture compared to community cases

(Tam personal communication).

Seasonality.

The late spring increase in cases, particularly in children where the increase over a few weeks can be

four fold in some regions, has remained an enigma for many years (6;27;28) and implies a seasonal

driver that is probably indirect and related to environmental and climatic conditions (6). The

seasonality differs by region, by year and by latitude and longitude, suggesting that weather,

combined with the farming environment is important. Possible drivers include increased

contamination of chicken (29-32) and transmission by flies (22;33) (Table 2). Published evidence that

children in rural areas are more likely to be infected with ruminant strains (10), presumably from

direct or indirect contamination from the environment. Data on seasonal distribution (Figure 4c) and

the typing (Table 1), make it unlikely that a single common source is the driver and imply

contamination from multiple sources. There remains a need to tease out the contributions from

these possible drivers. There is a similar seasonality in Campylobacter contamination of chicken

flocks (34) and human disease (35) where environmental drivers may be important (6;28;36). While

the seasonality of human infections correlates with climatic variables (28;36) and chicken

contamination (37;38), the rise in human cases can precede that in chickens (39), consistent with a

common factor causing the increase in both. It has been suggested that flies might be the route by

which Campylobacter enter chicken flocks (40-42), and some modelling of chicken data supports this

hypothesis (43). In addition, transmission of Campylobacter to humans by flies has been

hypothesised as a way of explaining the characteristic seasonality of human Campylobacter

infections (22;33;44), and although testing this may prove difficult (45). The seasonal distribution of

Campylobacter in different countries may be related to their differing weather patterns (28). While

water based hypotheses are attractive because Campylobacter is common in natural waters, the

general absence of geographically located point-source outbreaks would be inconsistent with this

transmission route contributing to seasonality. Travel related infections are seasonal, but do not

coincide with the spring increase.

Typing. The typing of Campylobacter isolates has proved useful in outbreak investigation using

HS/PT typing and MLST typing, and also in attributing strains to particular host sources using MLST

typing (46;47). The distribution of different HS/PT types , with a few common types and a long tail of

rare ones, is similar to that previously reported for Campylobacter using MLST typing, but the ability

to group into clonal complexes makes MLST a more practical scheme for attribution. These data

provide some indication of the potential diversity of phenotypes that reflect the labile genetic

structure of this organism.

Data on the individual seven MLST alleles and on the HS/PT typing provide a way of looking at the

genetic diversity of Campylobacter isolates from human infections. The frequency of different types

from PubMLST may be influenced by inconsistencies in data submission and by bias towards rarer

types so more unusual types appear than they would in a natural population. For the Sentinel

Surveillance data the isolates were collected in a more systematic way and are therefore more

representative. The observed distribution for individual MLST alleles, for ST types and for combined

HS/PT types might suggest that the commonest types are perhaps those most easily able to

propagate themselves within human or animal hosts. However there is little evidence supporting

Page 9 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 11: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 10 17th

February 2011

this conjecture. The CCs have a clear utility in gathering up the organisms that are genetically similar,

with the result that there is a different distribution with many CCs having more isolates within them,

making source attribution more straightforward. The CCs shows a rough similarity, in comparing the

number of isolates of different type, to the individual HS types and to the individual PT types.

Antibiotics. The increasing resistance of isolates to antibiotics is partly due to an increase in

quinolone resistance in people returning from travel abroad, and partly increased resistance to other

antibiotics in isolates from all areas. The rise in resistance to erythromycin has been less dramatic

and does not show an association with foreign travel.

Attribution. Most human infections are caused by C. jejuni and C. coli. Large studies have indicated

that the Campylobacter isolates causing human infection contain a large diversity of types.

Attribution studies indicate that strains that are commonly found in chickens are found in a majority

of human infections (2;48). This implies that the source of the Campylobacter is chicken.

Epidemiological studies of Campylobacter patient risk factors suggest that contact with or

consumption of chicken is important as the transmission route of infection. In most studies the

chicken attribution to source of Campylobacter is higher than the risk factor data representing the

transmission route. This may result from transmission from chicken being indirect and not through

the usual eating or handling routes. Chickens can carry multiple strains (49) and co-infection with

more than one isolate occurs in about 8% of patients (50).

Disease burden. The disease burden from Campylobacter has been estimated to be 500,000 cases

per year with 80,000 GP consultations, based on cohort and GP studies conducted over 16 months

(1). However, there could be substantial under-ascertainment in areas with greater deprivation and

/ or a larger ethnic population. It remains unclear why there are more cases in males than in

females, and why infection is more common in rural than urban environments.

Acknowledgements. The authors would like to acknowledge the very large number of clinical,

laboratory, scientific and Environmental Health staff who were responsible for diagnosing and

reporting cases over the timescale of the review. Thanks are also extended to the people who

contributed to sentinel surveillance, case-control and other studies for other data on typing.

Contributorship. GN compiled the surveillance data and did the descriptive analysis. JFR compiled

the phenotyping data. SKR compiled the genetic typing data. CL linked surveillance data to

geographic markers, population density and socioeconomic variables. CS linked the location and

date with recent local rainfall and temperature. All contributed to the final manuscript.

Funding. There was no funding associated with this work. Work was conducted using the in kind

resources of the contributing organisations only.

Competing interests. The authors have no competing interests relating to this work.

Data sharing. The descriptive data presented in the paper is available for use by others.

Page 10 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 12: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 11 17th

February 2011

Reference List

(1) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, Viviani L, et al. Longitudinal study of infectious intestinal disease in

the UK (IID2 study): incidence in the community and presenting to general practice. Gut

2011 Jun 27.

(2) Sheppard SK, Dallas JF, Strachan NJ, et al. Campylobacter genotyping to determine the

source of human infection. Clin Infect Dis 2009 Apr 15;48(8):1072-8.

(3) Tam CC, Higgins CD, Neal KR, et al. Chicken consumption and use of acid-suppressing

medications as risk factors for Campylobacter enteritis, England. Emerg Infect Dis 2009

Sep;15(9):1402-8.

(4) Mullner P, Shadbolt T, Collins-Emerson JM, et al. Molecular and spatial epidemiology of

human campylobacteriosis: source association and genotype-related risk factors. Epidemiol

Infect 2010 Oct;138(10):1372-83.

(5) Mullner P, Spencer SE, Wilson DJ, et al. Assigning the source of human campylobacteriosis in

New Zealand: a comparative genetic and epidemiological approach. Infect Genet Evol 2009

Dec;9(6):1311-9.

(6) Louis VR, Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, et al. Temperature-driven Campylobacter seasonality in

England and Wales. Appl Environ Microbiol 2005 Jan;71(1):85-92.

(7) Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, Bolton FJ. Age patterns of persons with campylobacteriosis, England

and Wales, 1990-2007. Emerg Infect Dis 2009 Dec;15(12):2046-8.

(8) Doorduyn Y, Van Den Brandhof WE, Van Duynhoven YT et al. Risk factors for indigenous

Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli infections in The Netherlands: a case-control

study. Epidemiol Infect 2010 Oct;138(10):1391-404.

(9) Fitzenberger J, Uphoff H, Gawrich S, et al. Urban-rural differences of age- and species-

specific campylobacteriosis incidence, Hesse, Germany, July 2. Euro Surveill 2010;15(42).

(10) Strachan NJ, Gormley FJ, Rotariu O, et al. Attribution of Campylobacter infections in

northeast Scotland to specific sources by use of multilocus sequence typing. J Infect Dis 2009

Apr 15;199(8):1205-8.

(11) Garrett N, Devane ML, Hudson JA, et al. Statistical comparison of Campylobacter jejuni

subtypes from human cases and environmental sources. J Appl Microbiol 2007

Dec;103(6):2113-21.

(12) Green CG, Krause DO, Wylie JL. Spatial analysis of campylobacter infection in the Canadian

province of Manitoba. Int J Health Geogr 2006;5:2.

(13) Hearnden M, Skelly C, Eyles R, et al. The regionality of campylobacteriosis seasonality in New

Zealand. Int J Environ Health Res 2003 Dec;13(4):337-48.

(14) Sibbald CJ, Sharp JC. Campylobacter infection in urban and rural populations in Scotland. J

Hyg (Lond) 1985 Aug;95(1):87-93.

Page 11 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 13: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 12 17th

February 2011

(15) Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, Frost JA, et al. A case-case comparison of Campylobacter coli and

Campylobacter jejuni infection: a tool for generating hypotheses. Emerg Infect Dis 2002

Sep;8(9):937-42.

(16) Frost JA, Kramer JM, Gillanders SA. Phage typing of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter

coli and its use as an adjunct to serotyping. Epidemiol Infect 1999 Aug;123(1):47-55.

(17) Frost JA, Oza AN, Thwaites RT, et al. Serotyping scheme for Campylobacter jejuni and

Campylobacter coli based on direct agglutination of heat-stable antigens. J Clin Microbiol

1998 Feb;36(2):335-9.

(18) Maiden MC, Bygraves JA, Feil E, et al. Multilocus sequence typing: a portable approach to

the identification of clones within populations of pathogenic microorganisms. Proc Natl Acad

Sci U S A 1998 Mar 17;95(6):3140-5.

(19) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, O'Brien SJ. Guillain-Barre syndrome associated with Campylobacter

jejuni infection in England, 2000-2001. Clin Infect Dis 2003 Jul 15;37(2):307-10.

(20) Tam CC, O'Brien SJ, Petersen I, et al. Guillain-Barre syndrome and preceding infection with

campylobacter, influenza and Epstein-Barr virus in the general practice research database.

PLoS One 2007;2(4):e344.

(21) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, Petersen I, et al. Incidence of Guillain-Barre syndrome among patients

with Campylobacter infection: a general practice research database study. J Infect Dis 2006

Jul 1;194(1):95-7.

(22) Nichols GL. Fly transmission of Campylobacter. Emerg Infect Dis 2005 Mar;11(3):361-4.

(23) Garcia Rodriguez LA, Ruigomez A, et al. Use of acid-suppressing drugs and the risk of

bacterial gastroenteritis. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2007 Dec;5(12):1418-23.

(24) Leonard J, Marshall JK, Moayyedi P. Systematic review of the risk of enteric infection in

patients taking acid suppression. Am J Gastroenterol 2007 Sep;102(9):2047-56.

(25) Larner AJ, Hamilton MI. Review article: infective complications of therapeutic gastric acid

inhibition. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 1994 Dec;8(6):579-84.

(26) Royal College of General Practitioners. Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly

Returns Service Annual Report. 2009.

(27) White AN, Kinlin LM, Johnson C, et al. Environmental determinants of campylobacteriosis

risk in Philadelphia from 1994 to 2007. Ecohealth 2009 Jun;6(2):200-8.

(28) Kovats RS, Edwards SJ, Charron D, et al. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an

international study. Int J Biometeorol 2005 Mar;49(4):207-14.

(29) Guerin MT, Martin W, Reiersen J, et al. House-level risk factors associated with the

colonization of broiler flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, 2. BMC Vet Res 2007;3:30.

(30) Meldrum RJ, Griffiths JK, Smith RM, et al. The seasonality of human campylobacter infection

and Campylobacter isolates from fresh, retail chicken in Wales. Epidemiol Infect 2005

Feb;133(1):49-52.

Page 12 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 14: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 13 17th

February 2011

(31) Wilson IG. Salmonella and campylobacter contamination of raw retail chickens from

different producers: a six year survey. Epidemiol Infect 2002 Dec;129(3):635-45.

(32) Hudson JA, Nicol C, Wright J, et al. Seasonal variation of Campylobacter types from human

cases, veterinary cases, raw chicken, milk and water. J Appl Microbiol 1999 Jul;87(1):115-24.

(33) Ekdahl K, Normann B, Andersson Y. Could flies explain the elusive epidemiology of

campylobacteriosis? BMC Infect Dis 2005;5(1):11.

(34) Jorgensen F, Ellis-Iversen J, Rushton S, et al. Influence of Season and Geography on

Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli Subtypes in Housed Broiler Flocks Reared in Great Britain.

Appl Environ Microbiol 2011 Jun;77(11):3741-8.

(35) Bi P, Cameron AS, Zhang Y, Parton KA. Weather and notified Campylobacter infections in

temperate and sub-tropical regions of Australia: an ecological study. J Infect 2008

Oct;57(4):317-23.

(36) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, O'Brien, et al. Temperature dependence of reported Campylobacter

infection in England, 1989-1999. Epidemiol Infect 2006 Feb;134(1):119-25.

(37) Jore S, Viljugrein H, Brun E, et al. Trends in Campylobacter incidence in broilers and humans

in six European countries, 1997-2007. Prev Vet Med 2010 Jan 1;93(1):33-41.

(38) Patrick ME, Christiansen LE, Waino M, et al. Effects of climate on incidence of Campylobacter

spp. in humans and prevalence in broiler flocks in Denmark. Appl Environ Microbiol 2004

Dec;70(12):7474-80.

(39) Hartnack S, Doherr MG, Alter T, et al. Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an

explorative time series analysis. Zoonoses Public Health 2009 Apr;56(3):117-28.

(40) Hald B, Skovgard H, Pedersen K, et al. Influxed insects as vectors for Campylobacter jejuni

and Campylobacter coli in Danish broiler houses. Poult Sci 2008 Jul;87(7):1428-34.

(41) Hald B, Skovgard H, Bang DD, et al. Flies and Campylobacter infection of broiler flocks. Emerg

Infect Dis 2004 Aug;10(8):1490-2.

(42) Hald B, Sommer HM, Skovgard H. Use of fly screens to reduce Campylobacter spp.

introduction in broiler houses. Emerg Infect Dis 2007 Dec;13(12):1951-3.

(43) Guerin MT, Martin SW, Reiersen J, et al. Temperature-related risk factors associated with

the colonization of broiler-chicken flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, 2001-2004.

Prev Vet Med 2008 Aug 15;86(1-2):14-29.

(44) Nelson W, Harris B. Flies, fingers, fomites, and food. Campylobacteriosis in New Zealand--

food-associated rather than food-borne. N Z Med J 2006;119(1240):U2128.

(45) Nichols GL. Disease transmission by non-biting flies. In: Ayres JG, Harrison RM, Nichols GL,

Maynard RL, editors. Environmental Medicine.London: Hodder Arnold; 2010. p. 434-46.

(46) Dingle KE, Colles FM, Ure R, et al. Molecular characterization of Campylobacter jejuni clones:

a basis for epidemiologic investigation. Emerg Infect Dis 2002 Sep;8(9):949-55.

Page 13 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 15: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 14 17th

February 2011

(47) Dingle KE, Colles FM, Wareing DR, et al. Multilocus sequence typing system for

Campylobacter jejuni. J Clin Microbiol 2001 Jan;39(1):14-23.

(48) Sheppard SK, Dallas JF, MacRae M, et al. Campylobacter genotypes from food animals,

environmental sources and clinical disease in Scotland 2005/6. Int J Food Microbiol 2009 Aug

31;134(1-2):96-103.

(49) Forbes KJ, Gormley FJ, Dallas JF, et al. Campylobacter immunity and coinfection following a

large outbreak in a farming community. J Clin Microbiol 2009 Jan;47(1):111-6.

(50) Richardson JF, Frost JA, Kramer JM, et al. Coinfection with Campylobacter species: an

epidemiological problem? J Appl Microbiol 2001 Aug;91(2):206-11.

Page 14 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 16: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 15 17th

February 2011

Table 1. Serotypes (HS)‡, phage types (PT)†, MLST Sequence types (ST) and MLST Clonal Complexes

(CC) of C. jejuni and C. coli in England and Wales 2000-2009*

Serotype

Phage

type

Clonal

complex

From

PubMLS

T

dataset

Sequence

type

From

PubML

ST

dataset

HS C. jejuni C. coli Total PT C. jejuni C. coli Total CC C. jejuni C. coli Total ST C. jejuni C. coli Total

HS1 397 397 PT1 8647 201 8848 CC 21 268 1 269 ST 5 17 0 17

HS2 778 2 780 PT2 2681 758 3439 CC 22 22 0 22 ST 17 4 0 4

HS3 155 155 PT3 4 4 CC 42 19 0 19 ST 19 25 0 25

HS4 691 691 PT4 7 7 CC 45 92 0 92 ST 21 44 0 44

HS5 592 592 PT5 1636 5 1641 CC 48 79 0 79 ST 22 9 0 9

HS6 466 466 PT6 538 7 545 CC 49 16 0 16 ST 42 6 0 6

HS7 22 22 PT7 8 139 147 CC 52 24 0 24 ST 44 3 0 3

HS8 398 398 PT8 545 11 556 CC 61 51 0 51 ST 45 31 0 31

HS9 357 33 390 PT9 15 15 CC 206 51 0 51 ST 47 7 0 7

HS10 22 22 PT10 63 2 65 CC 257 117 1 118 ST 48 32 0 32

HS11 203 203 PT11 13 13 CC 283 16 0 16 ST 49 7 0 7

HS12 347 1 348 PT13 12 12 CC 353 80 0 80 ST 50 27 0 27

HS13 4008 4008 PT14 557 3 560 CC 354 40 0 40 ST 51 35 0 35

HS14 13 263 276 PT15 34 1 35 CC 362 2 0 2 ST 52 6 0 6

HS15 19 1 20 PT16 1 1 CC 403 19 0 19 ST 53 22 1 23

HS16 161 161 PT17 63 5 68 CC 433 3 0 3 ST 61 26 0 26

HS17 2 2 PT18 63 63 CC 443 58 0 58 ST 93 7 0 7

HS18 889 1 890 PT19 473 1 474 CC 446 11 0 11 ST 104 15 0 15

HS19 386 386 PT20 336 336 CC 460 14 0 14 ST 137 7 0 7

HS21 295 295 PT21 138 138 CC 464 9 0 9 ST 205 4 0 4

HS22 31 31 PT22 4 4 CC 508 3 0 3 ST 206 11 0 11

HS23 280 280 PT23 23 23 CC 573 12 0 12 ST 227 6 0 6

HS24 32 32 PT24 14 14 CC 574 40 2 42 ST 233 3 0 3

HS25 4 4 PT25 100 2 102 CC 607 22 0 22 ST 257 59 0 59

HS26 9 9 PT27 1 1 CC 658 30 0 30 ST 262 7 0 7

HS27 239 239 PT28 14 14 CC 661 12 0 12 ST 267 7 0 7

HS28 3 259 262 PT29 9 3 12 CC 677 1 0 1 ST 311 3 0 3

HS29 1 1 PT30 3 3 CC 692 2 0 2 ST 353 6 0 6

HS30 33 17 50 PT31 7 7 CC 702 2 0 2 ST 354 14 0 14

HS31 1315 2 1317 PT32 9 9 18 CC 828 1 73 74 ST 356 5 0 5

HS32 11 11 PT33 1726 4 1730 CC 1034 9 0 9 ST 367 5 0 5

HS33 28 28 PT34 1499 1499 CC 1287 1 0 1 ST 397 3 0 3

HS34 3 10 13 PT35 630 1 631 CC 1332 1 0 1 ST 400 9 0 9

HS35 69 69 PT36 573 2 575 No CC 166 24 190 ST 436 3 0 3

HS36 9 9 PT37 4 4 Total 1293 101 1394 ST 447 3 0 3

HS37 892 892 PT38 150 1 151 ST 464 3 0 3

HS39 9 9 PT39 968 27 995 ST 475 7 0 7

HS40 20 20 PT40 117 1 118 ST 572 8 0 8

HS41 9 9 PT41 20 20 ST 573 4 0 4

HS42 57 57 PT42 6 6 ST 574 29 0 29

HS43 33 33 PT43 32 32 ST 583 7 0 7

HS44 127 127 PT44 922 927 1849 ST 607 5 0 5

HS45 10 10 PT45 34 34 ST 658 9 0 9

HS48 1 23 24 PT46 4 4 ST 814 3 0 3

HS49 1 200 201 PT47 2 2 ST 824 3 1 4

HS50 3528 3528 PT48 64 64 ST 825 0 6 6

HS51 2 41 43 PT49 5 5 ST 827 0 11 11

HS52 50 50 PT50 15 15 ST 828 0 3 3

HS53 2 2 PT51 3 3 ST 829 0 4 4

HS55 70 70 PT52 10 10 ST 843 3 0 3

HS56 7 699 706 PT53 75 75 ST 872 0 3 3

HS57 42 42 PT54 127 127 ST 877 3 0 3

HS58 2 2 PT55 4 4 ST 883 5 0 5

HS59 4 32 36 PT56 18 18 ST 904 3 0 3

HS60 413 413 PT57 7 7 ST 977 3 0 3

HS61 1 82 83 PT58 19 19 ST 1009 0 3 3

HS62 10 10 PT59 18 18 ST 1079 3 0 3

HS63 217 1 218 PT60 13 13 ST 1371 3 0 3

HS66 215 215 PT61 11 11 ST 1374 3 0 3

HS67 117 117 PT62 170 170 ST 2496 3 0 3

HS68 101 101 PT63 139 2 141 ST 3466 3 0 3

HS69 74 74 PT64 87 2 89 ST 2 cases 126 14 140

UT 8675 457 9132 PT65 102 1 103 ST 1 case 572 54 626

Total 26688 2393 29081 PT66 16 3 19 ST unknown 7 1 8

PT67 201 1 202 Total 1293 101 1394

PT68 6 6

PT69 11 1 12

PT70 8 8

PT71 20 20

PT72 7 7

PT73 66 66

PT74 18 18

PT75 61 61

PT76 12 12

PT77 43 43

PT78 20 1 21

PT79 9 3 12

PT80 147 147

PT81 1 1

PT82 47 2 49

PT83 5 5

PT84 7 7

PT85 4 4

PT86 1 1

PTRDNC 1052 53 1105

PTUT 1334 214 1548

Total 26688 2393 29081

Page 15 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 17: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 16 17th

February 2011

* Campylobacter typing results are from C. jejuni and C. coli but other species identified at HPA

Colindale were: Arcobacter butzleri (50), A. cryaerophilus (4), A. species (1), C. fetus (123), C.

hyointestinalis (2), C. lari (8), C. upsaliensis (50), Helicobacter canadensis (2), H. cinerea (1), H.

pullorum (2).

‡Two thirds of serotypes of C. jejuni were represented in seven serotypes (HS13, 22%; HS50, 20%;

HS31 7%; HS37, 5%; HS18, 5%; HS2 & HS4, 4%).

†84% of C. coli were in five serotypes (HS 56, 36%; HS14, 14%; HS28, 13%; HS66, 11%, HS49, 10%).

While isolates from some HS/PT types were confined to C. jejuni or C. coli 17 types occurred in both,

although in most there was a predominance of one species. The exception was HS9 PT44 which was

roughly equal in numbers. Other types included HS12 PT44, HS14 PT1, HS14 PT44, HS18 PT2, HS2

PT44, HS30 PT1, HS31 PT39, HS34 PT1, HS49 PT2, HS51 PT2, HS56 PT1, HS56 PT2, HS56 PT44, HS61

PT1, HS9 PT1, HS9 PT2. It is notable that in isolates showing the same phage and serotype pattern

between C. jejuni and C. coli the HS 56, HS9, PT1, PT2 and PT44 phenotypes were prominent.

Page 16 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 18: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 17 17th

February 2011

Table 2. The main hypothesised drivers for changes in Campylobacter.

Hypothesised contributing factor Estimated likelihood of causing:

Long term

change

Seasonal

spring

increase

Increase

in adults

over 50

years old

More

rural than

urban

cases

More

cases in

the more

affluent

Surveillance ascertainment

Impacts of NHS Direct (7) Medium Low Low Low Low

National reporting Medium Low Low Low Low

Changes in the surveillance system Low Low Low Low Medium

Changes in Campylobacter culture media Medium Low Low Low Low

Laboratory testing policy Medium Low Low Low Low

New laws requiring laboratory notification of Campylobacter * Low Low Low Low Low

Susceptibility

Increased proton pump inhibitor use High Low High Low Low

Immunity through prior exposure or infection Low Low Low Low Medium

Exposure

Increased contamination of chicken High Medium Low Low Low

Increased consumption of chicken (3) Medium Low Low Low Medium

Increased systemic Campylobacter infection in chicken High Medium Low Low Low

Sourcing chicken from different areas Medium Low Low Low Medium

Increase in non-chicken related sources Low Low Low Medium Low

Transmission from cattle to chickens by flies Low High Low Low Low

Transmission from faeces or raw meat to RTE food by flies Low High Low High Low

Biosecurity interventions for Salmonella control Medium Low Low Low Low

Country walks Medium Medium Medium High Medium

Contamination from agricultural animals Medium Medium Low High Medium

Contamination from pets Low Medium Low Medium Low

Contamination from wild birds Low Medium Low Low Low

Food preparation involving raw meats Medium Low Low Medium Low

Educational farm visits Medium Medium Low Medium Medium

Barbecued or grilled meat Medium High Medium Low Low

Private or untreated water supplies Low Medium Low Medium Medium

Mains drinking water Low Low Low Low Low

Surface water/ sewage exposure Medium Medium Low Medium Low

Social factors

Population aging/demographic change (7) High Low High Medium Low

The economic situation Medium Low Low Low Medium

Socioeconomic status Medium Low Low Medium High

Changes in Campylobacter in other countries Medium Medium Low Low Low

Kitchen behaviour Low Low Low Low Low

GP access High Low Low High High

Two weekly waste bin collections Low Low Low Low Low

Travel abroad Medium Low High Low High

Eating out Medium low Medium Low Medium

Environmental factors

Temperature Low Medium Low Low Low

Rainfall Low Low Low Low Low

Latitude/longitude Low Medium Low Medium Low

*Human disease notification

Page 17 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 19: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 18 17th

February 2011

Figure 1. Age distribution. Data from 1,109,406 laboratory confirmed cases reported in England and

Wales to national surveillance between 1989 and 2011. a. Campylobacter isolates from patients with

and without meningitis in different age groups as a percentage of all cases 1989 to 2009. b.

Campylobacter isolates from fatal and non-fatal cases in different age groups as a percentage of all

cases 1989 to 2009. c. Campylobacter cases per year from 1989 to 2011 by age (2011 data

provisional). d. Campylobacter cases per year 1989-2010 as a percentage of cases in different age

groups over 45 years old. e. Campylobacter cases by age and sex 1989-2009. f. Campylobacter cases

by age as a percentage of all cases for London and all other areas 1898-2009. g. Campylobacter cases

in people who had recently returned from abroad and all other cases 1989-2009. h. Age distribution

of Salmonella and Campylobacter. i. Change in age distribution over four five year time periods. j.

Campylobacter age and sex distribution in 2008. k. population age and sex distribution in 2008. l.

Campylobacter cases per 100,000 in 2008 by age and sex. m. Campylobacter cases per one year age

group as a percentage of all cases per year 1989 to 2009. n. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000

per year between 1989 and 2009 by age and sex.

Figure 2. The weekly distribution of Campylobacter cases as a percentage of all cases over different

age groups (unadjusted data).

Figure 3. Typing. Typing data on cases of Campylobacter from England and Wales 1989-2009. Data in

the HPA dataset (29,081 isolates) includes the number of C. jejuni and C. coli combined serotype (HS)

and phage type (PT) combinations (HS/PT) against the number of isolates in each type a. the

separate HS and PT types for C. jejuni and C. coli (b). The PubMLST database (1394 isolates) shows

the number of types from human cases against the number of patient isolates. The figures represent

individual sequenced genes for uncA (c.), tkt (d.), pgm (e.), glyA (f.), gltA (g.), glnA (h.) and aspA (i),

with an average of the seven genes (j.) and the individual ST and CC (k).

Figure 4. Resistance, spatial, social and temporal distribution. a. Resistance of Campylobacter

isolates to antibiotics between 1989 and 2009. b. Campylobacter cases per day before and after

Bank holidays in England and Wales 1989 to 2009. The dotted line represents an estimate of the

cases that would have occurred if there had not been a Bank Holiday. c. Time series of

campylobacter by day of year 1989 to 2009 showing unmodified data (OPIE raw), data adjusted for

day of week (OPIE), data also adjusted for bank holidays (adjusted) and also adjusted for long term

trend (normalised). d. Campylobacter cases by age and week of year. e. Seasonal distribution of

cases over and under ten years of age (normalised data). f. Regional differences in seasonal

distribution (normalised data). g and h. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000 for 2009 based on

the Medium level Lower Super Output Areas (g) and Lower level Super Output Areas (h). i.

Campylobacter cases per 100,000 in 2009 by population density and completeness of postcode

reporting. j. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000 per year and the index of multiple deprivation

(IMD) score. Differences between 2007 and 2009 reflect improving postcode reporting as cases

cannot be included in the figures without a postcode. k. Campylobacter prevalence by week in each

region against the local temperature two weeks before the case specimen date (2005 to 2009).

Page 18 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 20: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Figure 1.

190x284mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 19 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 21: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Figure 2.

117x266mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 20 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 22: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Figure 4.

192x275mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 21 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 23: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Figure 4.

192x275mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 22 of 22

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 24: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Campylobacter epidemiology: A descriptive study reviewing

one million cases in England and Wales between 1989 to

2011

Journal: BMJ Open

Manuscript ID: bmjopen-2012-001179.R1

Article Type: Research

Date Submitted by the Author: 04-May-2012

Complete List of Authors: Nichols, Gordon; Health Protection Agency, Gastrointestinal Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Richardson, Judith; HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale

Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK., Laboratory of Gastrointestinal Infections Sheppard, Samuel; University of Oxford, The Tinbergen Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK, Department of Zoology Lane, Chris; HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK., Gastrointestinal, Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Sarran, Christophe; Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB UK,

<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:

Epidemiology

Secondary Subject Heading: Infectious diseases, Public health

Keywords:

EPIDEMIOLOGY, Gastrointestinal infections < GASTROENTEROLOGY,

Epidemiology < INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Public health < INFECTIOUS DISEASES, MICROBIOLOGY, Microbiology < PATHOLOGY

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

Page 25: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 1 17th

February 2011

Campylobacter epidemiology: A descriptive study reviewing one million cases in England and

Wales between 1989 to 2011

Gordon L. Nichols† ђ

, Judith F. Richardson†, Samuel K. Sheppard

‡, Chris Lane

†, Christophe Sarran

φ

† HPA Colindale, Health Protection Agency, 61, Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK.

[email protected]

‡ Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, The Tinbergen Building, South Parks Road, Oxford

OX1 3PS, UK and Institute of Life Science, College of Medicine, Swansea University, Swansea. SA2

8PP. [email protected]

φ Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB UK [email protected]

ђ Corresponding author

The text is 3,953 words, the abstract is 300 words, the title is 15 words and there are 50 references,

2 tables and 4 figures.

Running title: Review of a million Campylobacter cases

Page 1 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 26: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 2 17th

February 2011

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To review Campylobacter cases in England and Wales over two decades and examine

the main factors/mechanisms driving the changing epidemiology.

Design: A descriptive study of Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2011. Cases over three

years were linked anonymously to post code, population density, deprivation indices and census

data. Cases over five years were anonymously linked to local weather exposure estimates.

Setting: Patients were from general practice hospital and environmental health investigations

through primary diagnostic laboratories across England and Wales.

Participants: There were 1,109,406 cases.

Outcome measures: Description of changes in Campylobacter epidemiology over 23 years and how

the main drivers may influence these.

Results: There was an increase in Campylobacter cases over the last 23 years, with the largest

increase in people over 50 years. Changes in the underlying population have contributed to this,

including the impacts of population increases after WW1, WW2 and the “baby boom” of the 1960’s.

A recent increase in risk or ascertainment within this population has caused an increase in cases in

all age groups from 2004 to 2011. The seasonal increase in cases between weeks 18 (Early May) and

22 (Early June) was consistent across ages, years and regions and was most marked in children and

in more rural regions. Campylobacter prevalence by week in each region correlated with

temperature two weeks before. There were higher prevalences in areas with a low population

density, low deprivation and lower percentage of people of ethnic origin . Data from sero-phage and

MLST typing shows a few common types and many uncommon types.

Conclusions: The drivers/mechanisms influencing seasonality, age distribution, population density,

socioeconomic and long term differences are diverse and their relative contributions remain to be

established. Surveillance and typing provide insights into Campylobacter epidemiology and sources

of infection, providing a sound basis for targeted interventions.

Page 2 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 27: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 3 17th

February 2011

Page 3 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 28: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 4 17th

February 2011

Introduction

Campylobacter is the commonest bacterial cause of gastroenteritis in many developed countries and

has been the subject of extensive research, with over 7,500 peer reviewed articles with

Campylobacter in the title. It has been estimated that in the UK there were over half a million cases

in the community in 2008-9 and around 80,000 GP consultations (1). Chicken has been implicated as

the source of infection in up to 80% of infections (2) and as the risk factor associated with

transmission in 41% (3). Actions to reduce the contamination of chickens in New Zealand have

shown dramatic reductions in human cases (4;5). Despite this the epidemiology of Campylobacter

remains complicated and some of the features seem difficult to explain. These include the strong

seasonal increase in cases (6), the higher rates of infection in men (6), the changing age distribution

(7), the higher rates of infection and different risk factors in rural than urban environments and the

greater seasonality in rural than urban environments (4;8-14). The study was set up to review the

data reported to national surveillance on human Campylobacter infections in England and Wales

over the last 22 years to provide an overview of trends and possible drivers, mechanisms and

transmission routes.

Methods

Campylobacter surveillance data reported from diagnostic laboratories in England and Wales from

1989 to 2011 were extracted from the Oracle (LabBase) database and analysed. Most of the analyses

were for the period 1989 to 2009, but annual cases were extended to 2011 (2011 data provisional).

All were laboratory confirmed cases, most were symptomatic and included patients with extra-

intestinal infections. Standard antimicrobial testing methods, used in primary diagnostic

laboratories, were predominantly disc diffusion methods. Where speciation was reported it was

conducted in diagnostic laboratories using conventional phenotypic methods. Cases were linked by

postcode to Lower and Medium Level Super Output areas (LSOA; MSOA), deprivation index, ethnic

origin, population density and census data using data held on the Office for National Statistics

website http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=6 . Post codes of the diagnostic laboratories

involved in primary isolation were used to link cases to local weather parameters held by the Met

Office for 2005 to 2009. Temporal data was adjusted from day of year using a seven day rolling

mean, systematic adjustments for the reduced reporting over Bank Holidays and for long term trend.

Phenotypic typing results were on human isolates, predominantly from samples taken in defined

studies rather than during routine sampling. Data for the period of 1989 to 2009 included patients in

a Campylobacter sentinel surveillance project (15), a case-control study (3) and miscellaneous other

sources. The majority of isolates were collected in a systematic way from all age groups although the

case-control study was confined to adults over 18 years old. Serotyping, and phage typing were

conducted at HPA Colindale using standard protocols (16;17), and multilocus sequence typing

(MLST) used recognised methods (18). Data from clinical samples are archived on the PubMLST

database along with isolates from other sources and figures are those entered in the database to

September 2011.

Results

Page 4 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 29: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 5 17th

February 2011

Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and

2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and were associated

with diarrhoea. There were 82 Campylobacter related deaths (0.008%). Overall, 242 (0.25%) of

isolates were from infections involving a sterile body site, including blood (1665), brain or CSF (67),

wounds (45), cardiac prostheses (15), peritoneum (6), joints (3). A majority of C. fetus cases (61 of

72; 85%) were invasive and 75% of C. fetus patients were over 50 years compared to 44% of all

Campylobacter isolates. Invasive infections were below 0.13% of all infections for people under 60

years old (1013/793,874), but represented 0.37 of those between 60 and 79 (539/145,533) and

0.78% of infections in people over 80 years (190/24,252). CNS cases were spread across the age

groups in a broadly similar distribution to non-CNS cases when examined as a percentage of all cases

(Figure 1a), whereas fatal cases were more common in people over 60 years than in other ages

(Figure 1b). There were 48 Campylobacter patients with Guillain-Barré or Miller-Fisher syndromes

(GB/MF). Published studies have indicated that the rate of Guillain-Barré syndrome in

Campylobacter infections, when examined using a general practice research database (19;20), was

higher by a factor of 10-40 times in England with an estimated 1.17 cases per 1000 per year (21).

Three patients with Campylobacter had haemolytic uremic syndrome, but without evidence that

Campylobacter was the cause. Because reporting is passive and reliant on clinical details being

recorded there is likely to be under-reporting in both GB/MF and mortality data and differences in

ascertainment of these between regions.

Long term changes. There were 1,109,406 laboratory confirmed cases reported to national

surveillance between 1989 and 2011. Cases in 2011 were 45% above 2004 figures and 3% above

2010 figures (Figure 1c). The cases rose from 33,280 in 1989 to a peak of 58,235 in 2000 before

dropping to 44,544 in 2004 and rising to a maximum 64,582 in 2011 (2011 data provisional). There

was a marked long term increase in the percentage of cases in people over 50 years old, with a

decline in the incidence in babies and children under 10 years from 2000 and a subsequent increase

from 2006 to 2010. Figure 1c shows an increase in cases within all three age groups between 2004

and 2011 (<10, 36%; 10-49, 25%; 50+, 81%), but for the period 1994 to 2000 a 17% decrease in

babies and children under 10 years, an increase in ages 10 to 49 of 28%, and an increase in people

over 50 by 75%.

Age distribution. There were 14% more reported Campylobacter cases in men than women and a

1.14 M/F ratio across most ages (Figure 1e). This was mirrored by the age specific prevalence which

showed a 30% higher prevalence in males compared to females across most age groups (Figure 1j).

The age distribution varied geographically, with London having more infections in young adults and

less in people over 40 (Figure 1f). The age distribution of travel related cases showed lower rates in

children and people over 60 and more cases in people between 20 and 35 years old (Figure 1g). The

age distribution of cases between 1989 and 2010 differed significantly between Salmonella and

Campylobacter, with a higher proportion of Salmonella cases in children and a higher proportion of

Campylobacter cases in adults (Figure 1h). The age structure of cases has shifted over 20 years with

more infection in older people in recent years (Figure 1i)., for example comparison of Campylobacter

data from 2008 (Figure 1j) with 2008 population estimates (Figure 1k) shows the impact of the age

structure of the population on the prevalence in 2008 (Figure 1l). The steady increase in the

percentage of people over 50 years of age (Figure 1m) partly reflects aging of the underlying

population. When examined as an age specific prevalence there has been a recent increase in

infections in older people, particularly men (Figure 1n). There was also an increase in 20-32 year olds

Page 5 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 30: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 6 17th

February 2011

of both sexes around 2000 that was linked to the general increase in cases at this time. There was

also a decline in the prevalence in children under 4 years old from 2000 onwards. The seasonality of

Campylobacter was much more marked in young children than in other ages (Figure 2).

Typing. Campylobacter isolates from human cases between 1989 and 2009 (29,081/994,791; 2.9%))

could be differentiated into 64 serotypes (HS), 86 phage types (PT) and 949 combined HS/PT types.

Isolates of C. jejuni contained 57 serotypes, 80 phage types and 866 HS/PT types and two thirds of

serotypes of C. jejuni were represented in seven serotypes (Table 1). C. coli contained 25 serotypes,

30 phage types and 102 HS/PT types with five serotypes making up 84% of isolates (Table 1). When

the combined ST/PT of typable isolates were examined then no type exceeded 9% of the total typed

C. jejuni and 18% of typed C. coli strains. Among the combined HS/PT types most isolates had few

representatives (Figure 3a) although the distribution differed when HS and PT were examined

separately (Figure 3b). Only 18,013 of 26,688 (67%) C. jejuni isolates and 1,936 of 2,393 (81%) C. coli

isolates were typable. When combined as HS/PT type this decreased to 16,362 of 26,688 (61%),

making phenotyping a poor tool for use in epidemiological investigation. Most of the HS/PT typing

was undertaken between 2000 and 2004.

For the MLST data all human cases reported on the PubMLST database were grouped by the seven

sequenced genes (Figure 3c-3j), the ST and CC (figure 3k; Table 1). Up to September 2011, there

were 33 CCs and 757 STs among isolates from people with Campylobacter submitted to the

PubMLST website http://pubmlst.org/campylobacter/. 94.8% of C. coli were of one type (ST- 828

complex) and 34.2% of C. jejuni of two types (ST- 21 complex and ST-257 complex). While most

isolates clustered into one of the predominant CCs, the STs showed a distribution with a few

common types and many types with low numbers of isolates (Figure 3c-j). This may partly reflect the

submission patterns for the PubMLST database, with ‘rare’ STs over represented as a proportion of

all isolates, although a similar distribution was found for the combined HS and PT types (Figure 3a)

where this was not an issue. The distribution of individual serotypes and phage types (Figure 3b)

mirrored that of the CCs (Figure 3i).

Antimicrobial resistance. Over the period from 1989 to 2009 there was an increase in the

percentage of Campylobacter isolates that were fully or intermediately resistant to ampicillin,

ciprofloxacin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline and erythromycin (Figure 4a). The percentage of strains

which were resistant to ciprofloxacin was higher in people who had recently travelled abroad

(1042/1601; 65%) compared to those who hadn’t (2005/6530; 31%) and where travel status was not

recorded (28,646/90,095; 32%). Isolates with high rates of resistance to ciprofloxacin were found in

people who had travelled to India (79%), Egypt (79%), Spain (78%) and Thailand (80%).

Weekends, bank holidays and other holidays. The onset date was not reported for most

Campylobacter infections; the specimen date was recorded in surveillance. Specimens with any

weekday ranged from 16.8%-22.3%; average 19.0) of all cases whereas cases were less common on

Saturday (2.5%-4.1% (average 3.2) and Sunday (1.4-2.1; average 1.7%), presumably reflecting

problems accessing medical services on weekends. This would include access to GP, hospital or

diagnostic laboratory. The reporting of infections was on average 28% lower in the seven days of

Bank Holiday weeks, presumably reflecting difficulties in accessing medical services. There was extra

reporting in the week following some Bank Holiday weeks, suggesting that some cases are merely

delayed by the holiday (Figure 4b). Other school holidays (e.g. half term) may have some effect on

Page 6 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 31: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 7 17th

February 2011

case reporting but are more difficult to determine as they are arranged locally rather than nationally.

There was no long term trend in the Bank Holiday effect. August bank holidays are during a period

when there is no school attendance and school holidays are therefore less likely to contribute.

Seasonality. Cases were normalised to take account of day of week, bank holidays and long term

trend. This was applied to daily infection rates to create a well defined time series that shows a

regular seasonal increase in the late spring with some of the features of an annual epidemic (Figure

4c), as previously observed (22), and is followed by a gradual decline over the rest of the year. The

timing of the increase varies slightly between regions and between years. The increased rate of

infection between weeks 18 (Early May) and 22 (Early June) is consistently seen every year in all

regions but is more pronounced in young children (Figure 4d, 4e), in some regions than others, and

was less marked in London (Figure 4f). Cases in this period represent 8 to 12% of all annual cases and

show a dramatic change over a few weeks in the exposure of people to infection, as short term

changes in ascertainment or susceptibility are unlikely. There was a relationship between

Campylobacter prevalence and temperature that was partly a reflection of the higher seasonality in

summer months when it is warmer (Figure 4k) but could also represent a temperature sensitive

driver.

Post code prevalence. The patient post code is required to determine the local prevalence of

Campylobacter and to produce maps of the medium level super output areas (MSOAs) (Figure 4g).

However, in 2009 only 76% of patient surveillance records had an associated postcode, so the actual

prevalence for MSOAs was higher than this. The prevalence was higher in young children than in

other ages (Figure 1l). Overall prevalence in England and Wales for 2009 was 105 per 100,000 per

year. Campylobacter prevalence in some MSOAs was lower than if the data was reported, due to low

post code reporting. These maps show some areas with much higher rates of infection locally (320

to 1290 cases per 100,000) that were not all in areas of low population density. When MSOAs were

examined, 76.5% of the areas had between 10 and 150 Campylobacter cases per 100,000 per year,

with 10.9% showing <10 per 100,000 per year and 12.6% having between 150 and 560 per 100,000

per year.

Population density, urban/rural distribution, ethnicity and deprivation. For years 2007 to 2009

data, population density and deprivation were derived from the postcode data. Cases of

Campylobacter per 100,000 population were higher in areas of low population density (rural)

compared to areas of high population density (urban settings) (Figure 4i). Less postcode reporting in

areas of high population density or deprivation could introduce some bias, however, subset analysis

of areas with over 90% postcode reporting still showed higher prevalence in areas of lower

population density. The reason for the urban / rural difference remains unclear but could reflect

proximity to ruminants and other farmed animals or differences in access to healthcare. There was

an inverse relationship between Campylobacter prevalence and the Oxford Index of Multiple

Deprivation. People with Campylobacter from deprived areas were less frequently reported to

surveillance than in less deprived areas (Figure 4j). The reason could reflect different diets, prior

exposure conferring some resistance or reduced access to healthcare. The prevalence of

Campylobacter in communities where more than 95% of the population was “white British” was

greater than those where the percentage was less than 50%, possibly due to poorer access to

healthcare, greater susceptibility or increased exposure.

Page 7 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 32: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 8 17th

February 2011

Overseas travel. Overseas travel to both EU and non-EU countries was associated with almost a fifth

of all Campylobacter infections in data from enhanced surveillance. Spain, the country most visited,

remains the country with the largest source of travel related cases. Routine surveillance of travel

related cases shows poor and inconsistent ascertainment. Less is known about the risk factors

responsible for travel related Campylobacter than from indigenous infections and the risks may vary

between countries visited.

Chicken production. The long term change in Campylobacter cases in England and Wales was

compared to poultry produced in the UK after removing exports and including imports (Figure 1h4h).

Data was from the Defra website http://www.defra.gov.uk/statistics/foodfarm/food/slaughter/

Chicken production was used as a surrogate for chicken consumption and showed that over the 23

year period the relationship was not linear, implying that Campylobacter prevalence is not directly

related to the amount of chicken consumed.

DISCUSSION

The reasons for large long term changes in Campylobacter cases, the spring increase, the increase in

older people, the higher cases in rural communities, and more cases in less deprived people could be

related to features of diagnosis and reporting (commonly referred to as ascertainment) or of disease

within the population as a result of increased exposure or susceptibility (here referred to as risk)

(Table 2). The increase in cases in all three age groups between 2004 and 2009, can be compared to

the period 1994 to 2000 where there was a decrease in cases in babies and children under 10 years,

the increase in cases in people aged 10 to 49, and the large increase in people over 50 (Figure 1c).

This suggests the drivers are complex and may include changes in attribution and risk. It has been

suggested that some of the cases in children may be less likely to attend a physician and have a

specimen taken as a result of the triaging associated with NHS Direct (7), although the people

responding to NHS Direct are a small proportion of those with diarrhoea (1).

In order to examine the impacts of various factors on the long term change, seasonal increase,

increase in people over fifty, the urban/rural split and the socioeconomic factors a table was drawn

up (Figure Table 2). The increase in Campylobacter patients over 50 years between 2004 and 2010 is

dramatic and may be linked to proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use. These drugs may increase people’s

susceptibility to Campylobacter (3;8;23-25) and the older population group are more likely to be

taking these drugs than the younger ones. The underlying demographic drive seen in Figure 1m,

where the increased birth rate after World War 1 and World War 2 and the 1960’s baby boom can

be seen as diagonal lines, shows the impact of population size on Campylobacter cases over the

years. This demographic drive is likely to contribute to the age distribution of cases, as the number

of older people in the population is increasing, but may also influence year-on-year changes. The

economic downturn which began in 2008 may have changed people’s eating habits and exposed

people to foods that are more commonly contaminated with Campylobacter. Alternatively the

chicken products within retail shops may have become more contaminated, or there could be

increased consumption of more contaminated products like chicken liver. There may also be effects

resulting from a reduction in GP consultations for infectious intestinal disease (26). The increase in

cases since 2004 seems to be across all ages. People may be eating outside the home more than

they were twenty years ago and travel abroad is more common. Some of the discontinuities in

laboratory reporting may have an impact on long term trends as the data shows particular periods

Page 8 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 33: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 9 17th

February 2011

where reporting was incomplete. However, there is also evidence from laboratories that have

consistently reported over the 20 year surveillance period that the rates of long term change were

similar to those for all laboratories. There could have been systematic change in recent years in the

efficiency of isolation, either through reduced specimen delay or improved culture media or culture

conditions (e.g. atmosphere). In a longitudinal study of infectious intestinal disease, detection of

Campylobacter was better with culture and/or PCR than with culture alone (1). In addition there was

better isolation by culture alone in community cases than in those presenting to GPs when

compared to culture and PCR, possibly reflecting greater delay in GP samples being sent for culture

compared to community cases (Tam personal communication).

Seasonality.

The late spring increase in cases, particularly in children where the increase over a few weeks can be

four fold in some regions, has remained an enigma for many years (6;27;28) and implies a seasonal

driver that is probably indirect and related to environmental and climatic conditions (6). The

seasonality differs by region, by year and by latitude and longitude, suggesting that weather,

combined with the farming environment is important. Possible drivers include increased

contamination of chicken (29-32) and transmission by flies (22;33) (Table 2). Published evidence

indicates that children in rural areas are more likely to be infected with ruminant strains (10),

presumably from direct or indirect contamination from the environment. Data on seasonal

distribution (Figure 4c), and from typing data (Table 1), make it unlikely that a single common source

is the driver and imply contamination from multiple sources. There remains a need to tease out the

contributions from possible drivers. There is a similar seasonality in Campylobacter contamination of

chicken flocks (34) and human disease (35) where environmental drivers may be important

(6;28;36). While the seasonality of human infections correlates with climatic variables (28;36) and

chicken contamination (37;38), the rise in human cases can precede that in chickens (39), consistent

with a common factor causing the increase in both. It has been suggested that flies might be the

route by which Campylobacter enter chicken flocks (40-42), and some modelling of chicken data

supports this hypothesis (43). In addition, transmission of Campylobacter to humans by flies has

been hypothesised as a way of explaining the characteristic seasonality of human Campylobacter

infections (22;33;44), although testing this may prove difficult (45). The seasonal distribution of

Campylobacter in different countries may be related to their differing weather patterns (28). While

water based hypotheses are attractive because Campylobacter is common in natural waters, the

general absence of geographically located point-source outbreaks would be inconsistent with this

transmission route contributing to seasonality. Travel related infections are seasonal, but do not

coincide with the spring increase.

Typing. The typing of Campylobacter isolates has proved useful in outbreak investigation using

HS/PT typing and MLST typing, and also in attributing strains to particular host sources using MLST

typing (46;47). The distribution of different HS/PT types , with a few common types and a long tail of

rare ones, is similar to that previously reported for Campylobacter using MLST typing, but the ability

to group into clonal complexes makes MLST a more practical scheme for attribution. These data

provide some indication of the potential diversity of phenotypes that reflect the labile genetic

structure of this organism.

Page 9 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 34: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 10 17th

February 2011

Data on the individual seven MLST alleles and on the HS/PT typing provide a way of looking at the

genetic diversity of Campylobacter isolates from human infections. The frequency of different types

from PubMLST may be influenced by inconsistencies in data submission and by bias towards rarer

types so more unusual types appear than they would in a natural population. For the Sentinel

Surveillance data the isolates were collected in a more systematic way and are therefore more

representative. The observed distribution for individual MLST alleles, for ST types and for combined

HS/PT types might suggest that the commonest types are perhaps those most easily able to

propagate themselves within human or animal hosts. However there is little evidence supporting

this conjecture. The CCs have a clear utility in gathering up the organisms that are genetically similar,

with the result that there is a different distribution with many CCs having more isolates within them,

making source attribution more straightforward. The CCs shows a rough similarity, in comparing the

number of isolates of different type, to the individual HS types and to the individual PT types.

Antibiotics. The increasing resistance of isolates to antibiotics is partly due to an increase in

quinolone resistance in people returning from travel abroad, and partly increased resistance to other

antibiotics in isolates from all areas. The rise in resistance to erythromycin has been less dramatic

and does not show an association with foreign travel. It is therefore probably related to domestic

human use of this drug.

Poultry. This study suggests that long term changes in Campylobacter infection in humans does not

correlate well with poultry production. This suggests that the degree of contamination may be more

important than the total poultry weight produced. Most human infections are caused by C. jejuni

and C. coli. Large studies have indicated that the Campylobacter isolates causing human infection

contain a large diversity of types. Attribution studies indicate that strains that are commonly found

in chickens are found in a majority of human infections (2;48). This implies that the source of the

Campylobacter is chicken. Epidemiological studies of Campylobacter patient risk factors suggest that

contact with or consumption of chicken is important as the transmission route of infection. In

published studies the chicken attribution to source of Campylobacter (2) is higher than the risk factor

data representing the transmission route (3). This may result from transmission from chicken being

indirect and not through the usual eating or handling routes. Chickens can carry multiple strains (49)

and co-infection with more than one isolate occurs in about 8% of patients (50).

Disease burden. The disease burden from Campylobacter has been estimated to be 500,000 cases

per year with 80,000 GP consultations, based on cohort and GP studies conducted over 16 months

(1). However, there could be substantial under-ascertainment in areas with greater deprivation and

/ or a larger ethnic population. It remains unclear why there are more cases in males than in

females, and why infection is more common in rural than urban environments.

Implications. Research needs to be focussed on intervention, which in turn requires a better

understanding of the epidemiology. Typing data has been useful for attribution to sources and may

also be useful in measuring the impact of interventions targeted at reducing the contamination of

chickens. This work suggests there could be advantages in using the archive of strains that have been

typed by serotype and phage type as a resource for examining longer term changes by linking the

phenotypic and MLST typing and applying source attribution. There is a need for MLST typing on a

percentage of strains obtained through surveillance over a longer time period. However, there is

also a need to better understand the drivers for change other than source (e.g. transmission route,

Page 10 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 35: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 11 17th

February 2011

climate, impacts of immunity). The work suggests that the underlying population contributes

significantly to the disease epidemiology and this is an area where further examination may be

productive. The five elements of difference and the factors which are driving these are examined in

Table 2. It would be attractive to better understand whether the numerous rare types are a

reflection of recent emergence as a result of immunological pressure or are just rare, with a longer

pedigree. There is also scope for additional work on transmission vectors such as flies which seem to

play a role in biosecurity problems and may also directly contribute to human disease.

Acknowledgements. The authors would like to acknowledge the very large number of clinical,

laboratory, scientific and Environmental Health staff who were responsible for diagnosing and

reporting cases over the timescale of the review. Thanks are also extended to the people who

contributed to sentinel surveillance, case-control and other studies for other data on typing.

Contributorship. GN compiled the surveillance data and did the descriptive analysis. JFR compiled

the phenotyping data. SKR compiled the genetic typing data. CL linked surveillance data to

geographic markers, population density and socioeconomic variables. CS linked the location and

date with recent local rainfall and temperature. All contributed to the final manuscript.

Funding. There was no funding associated with this work. Work was conducted using the in kind

resources of the contributing organisations only.

Competing interests. The authors have no competing interests relating to this work.

Data sharing. The descriptive data presented in the paper is available for use by others. Numbers for

the figures are available as a supplementary file with this paper and on the Dryad website.

Page 11 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 36: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 12 17th

February 2011

Reference List

(1) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, Viviani L, et al. Longitudinal study of infectious intestinal disease in

the UK (IID2 study): incidence in the community and presenting to general practice. Gut

2011 Jun 27.

(2) Sheppard SK, Dallas JF, Strachan NJ, et al. Campylobacter genotyping to determine the

source of human infection. Clin Infect Dis 2009 Apr 15;48(8):1072-8.

(3) Tam CC, Higgins CD, Neal KR, et al. Chicken consumption and use of acid-suppressing

medications as risk factors for Campylobacter enteritis, England. Emerg Infect Dis 2009

Sep;15(9):1402-8.

(4) Mullner P, Shadbolt T, Collins-Emerson JM, et al. Molecular and spatial epidemiology of

human campylobacteriosis: source association and genotype-related risk factors. Epidemiol

Infect 2010 Oct;138(10):1372-83.

(5) Mullner P, Spencer SE, Wilson DJ, et al. Assigning the source of human campylobacteriosis in

New Zealand: a comparative genetic and epidemiological approach. Infect Genet Evol 2009

Dec;9(6):1311-9.

(6) Louis VR, Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, et al. Temperature-driven Campylobacter seasonality in

England and Wales. Appl Environ Microbiol 2005 Jan;71(1):85-92.

(7) Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, Bolton FJ. Age patterns of persons with campylobacteriosis, England

and Wales, 1990-2007. Emerg Infect Dis 2009 Dec;15(12):2046-8.

(8) Doorduyn Y, Van Den Brandhof WE, Van Duynhoven YT et al. Risk factors for indigenous

Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli infections in The Netherlands: a case-control

study. Epidemiol Infect 2010 Oct;138(10):1391-404.

(9) Fitzenberger J, Uphoff H, Gawrich S, et al. Urban-rural differences of age- and species-

specific campylobacteriosis incidence, Hesse, Germany, July 2. Euro Surveill 2010;15(42).

(10) Strachan NJ, Gormley FJ, Rotariu O, et al. Attribution of Campylobacter infections in

northeast Scotland to specific sources by use of multilocus sequence typing. J Infect Dis 2009

Apr 15;199(8):1205-8.

(11) Garrett N, Devane ML, Hudson JA, et al. Statistical comparison of Campylobacter jejuni

subtypes from human cases and environmental sources. J Appl Microbiol 2007

Dec;103(6):2113-21.

(12) Green CG, Krause DO, Wylie JL. Spatial analysis of campylobacter infection in the Canadian

province of Manitoba. Int J Health Geogr 2006;5:2.

(13) Hearnden M, Skelly C, Eyles R, et al. The regionality of campylobacteriosis seasonality in New

Zealand. Int J Environ Health Res 2003 Dec;13(4):337-48.

(14) Sibbald CJ, Sharp JC. Campylobacter infection in urban and rural populations in Scotland. J

Hyg (Lond) 1985 Aug;95(1):87-93.

Page 12 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 37: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 13 17th

February 2011

(15) Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, Frost JA, et al. A case-case comparison of Campylobacter coli and

Campylobacter jejuni infection: a tool for generating hypotheses. Emerg Infect Dis 2002

Sep;8(9):937-42.

(16) Frost JA, Kramer JM, Gillanders SA. Phage typing of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter

coli and its use as an adjunct to serotyping. Epidemiol Infect 1999 Aug;123(1):47-55.

(17) Frost JA, Oza AN, Thwaites RT, et al. Serotyping scheme for Campylobacter jejuni and

Campylobacter coli based on direct agglutination of heat-stable antigens. J Clin Microbiol

1998 Feb;36(2):335-9.

(18) Maiden MC, Bygraves JA, Feil E, et al. Multilocus sequence typing: a portable approach to

the identification of clones within populations of pathogenic microorganisms. Proc Natl Acad

Sci U S A 1998 Mar 17;95(6):3140-5.

(19) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, O'Brien SJ. Guillain-Barre syndrome associated with Campylobacter

jejuni infection in England, 2000-2001. Clin Infect Dis 2003 Jul 15;37(2):307-10.

(20) Tam CC, O'Brien SJ, Petersen I, et al. Guillain-Barre syndrome and preceding infection with

campylobacter, influenza and Epstein-Barr virus in the general practice research database.

PLoS One 2007;2(4):e344.

(21) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, Petersen I, et al. Incidence of Guillain-Barre syndrome among patients

with Campylobacter infection: a general practice research database study. J Infect Dis 2006

Jul 1;194(1):95-7.

(22) Nichols GL. Fly transmission of Campylobacter. Emerg Infect Dis 2005 Mar;11(3):361-4.

(23) Garcia Rodriguez LA, Ruigomez A, et al. Use of acid-suppressing drugs and the risk of

bacterial gastroenteritis. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2007 Dec;5(12):1418-23.

(24) Leonard J, Marshall JK, Moayyedi P. Systematic review of the risk of enteric infection in

patients taking acid suppression. Am J Gastroenterol 2007 Sep;102(9):2047-56.

(25) Larner AJ, Hamilton MI. Review article: infective complications of therapeutic gastric acid

inhibition. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 1994 Dec;8(6):579-84.

(26) Royal College of General Practitioners. Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly

Returns Service Annual Report. 2009.

(27) White AN, Kinlin LM, Johnson C, et al. Environmental determinants of campylobacteriosis

risk in Philadelphia from 1994 to 2007. Ecohealth 2009 Jun;6(2):200-8.

(28) Kovats RS, Edwards SJ, Charron D, et al. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an

international study. Int J Biometeorol 2005 Mar;49(4):207-14.

(29) Guerin MT, Martin W, Reiersen J, et al. House-level risk factors associated with the

colonization of broiler flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, 2. BMC Vet Res 2007;3:30.

(30) Meldrum RJ, Griffiths JK, Smith RM, et al. The seasonality of human campylobacter infection

and Campylobacter isolates from fresh, retail chicken in Wales. Epidemiol Infect 2005

Feb;133(1):49-52.

Page 13 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 38: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 14 17th

February 2011

(31) Wilson IG. Salmonella and campylobacter contamination of raw retail chickens from

different producers: a six year survey. Epidemiol Infect 2002 Dec;129(3):635-45.

(32) Hudson JA, Nicol C, Wright J, et al. Seasonal variation of Campylobacter types from human

cases, veterinary cases, raw chicken, milk and water. J Appl Microbiol 1999 Jul;87(1):115-24.

(33) Ekdahl K, Normann B, Andersson Y. Could flies explain the elusive epidemiology of

campylobacteriosis? BMC Infect Dis 2005;5(1):11.

(34) Jorgensen F, Ellis-Iversen J, Rushton S, et al. Influence of Season and Geography on

Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli Subtypes in Housed Broiler Flocks Reared in Great Britain.

Appl Environ Microbiol 2011 Jun;77(11):3741-8.

(35) Bi P, Cameron AS, Zhang Y, Parton KA. Weather and notified Campylobacter infections in

temperate and sub-tropical regions of Australia: an ecological study. J Infect 2008

Oct;57(4):317-23.

(36) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, O'Brien, et al. Temperature dependence of reported Campylobacter

infection in England, 1989-1999. Epidemiol Infect 2006 Feb;134(1):119-25.

(37) Jore S, Viljugrein H, Brun E, et al. Trends in Campylobacter incidence in broilers and humans

in six European countries, 1997-2007. Prev Vet Med 2010 Jan 1;93(1):33-41.

(38) Patrick ME, Christiansen LE, Waino M, et al. Effects of climate on incidence of Campylobacter

spp. in humans and prevalence in broiler flocks in Denmark. Appl Environ Microbiol 2004

Dec;70(12):7474-80.

(39) Hartnack S, Doherr MG, Alter T, et al. Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an

explorative time series analysis. Zoonoses Public Health 2009 Apr;56(3):117-28.

(40) Hald B, Skovgard H, Pedersen K, et al. Influxed insects as vectors for Campylobacter jejuni

and Campylobacter coli in Danish broiler houses. Poult Sci 2008 Jul;87(7):1428-34.

(41) Hald B, Skovgard H, Bang DD, et al. Flies and Campylobacter infection of broiler flocks. Emerg

Infect Dis 2004 Aug;10(8):1490-2.

(42) Hald B, Sommer HM, Skovgard H. Use of fly screens to reduce Campylobacter spp.

introduction in broiler houses. Emerg Infect Dis 2007 Dec;13(12):1951-3.

(43) Guerin MT, Martin SW, Reiersen J, et al. Temperature-related risk factors associated with

the colonization of broiler-chicken flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, 2001-2004.

Prev Vet Med 2008 Aug 15;86(1-2):14-29.

(44) Nelson W, Harris B. Flies, fingers, fomites, and food. Campylobacteriosis in New Zealand--

food-associated rather than food-borne. N Z Med J 2006;119(1240):U2128.

(45) Nichols GL. Disease transmission by non-biting flies. In: Ayres JG, Harrison RM, Nichols GL,

Maynard RL, editors. Environmental Medicine.London: Hodder Arnold; 2010. p. 434-46.

(46) Dingle KE, Colles FM, Ure R, et al. Molecular characterization of Campylobacter jejuni clones:

a basis for epidemiologic investigation. Emerg Infect Dis 2002 Sep;8(9):949-55.

Page 14 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 39: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 15 17th

February 2011

(47) Dingle KE, Colles FM, Wareing DR, et al. Multilocus sequence typing system for

Campylobacter jejuni. J Clin Microbiol 2001 Jan;39(1):14-23.

(48) Sheppard SK, Dallas JF, MacRae M, et al. Campylobacter genotypes from food animals,

environmental sources and clinical disease in Scotland 2005/6. Int J Food Microbiol 2009 Aug

31;134(1-2):96-103.

(49) Forbes KJ, Gormley FJ, Dallas JF, et al. Campylobacter immunity and coinfection following a

large outbreak in a farming community. J Clin Microbiol 2009 Jan;47(1):111-6.

(50) Richardson JF, Frost JA, Kramer JM, et al. Coinfection with Campylobacter species: an

epidemiological problem? J Appl Microbiol 2001 Aug;91(2):206-11.

Page 15 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 40: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 16 17th

February 2011

Table 1. Serotypes (HS)‡, phage types (PT)†, MLST Sequence types (ST) and MLST Clonal Complexes

(CC) of C. jejuni and C. coli in England and Wales 2000-2009*

Serotype

Phage

type

Clonal

complex

From

PubMLS

T

dataset

Sequence

type

From

PubML

ST

dataset

HS C. jejuni C. coli Total PT C. jejuni C. coli Total CC C. jejuni C. coli Total ST C. jejuni C. coli Total

HS1 397 397 PT1 8647 201 8848 CC 21 268 1 269 ST 5 17 0 17

HS2 778 2 780 PT2 2681 758 3439 CC 22 22 0 22 ST 17 4 0 4

HS3 155 155 PT3 4 4 CC 42 19 0 19 ST 19 25 0 25

HS4 691 691 PT4 7 7 CC 45 92 0 92 ST 21 44 0 44

HS5 592 592 PT5 1636 5 1641 CC 48 79 0 79 ST 22 9 0 9

HS6 466 466 PT6 538 7 545 CC 49 16 0 16 ST 42 6 0 6

HS7 22 22 PT7 8 139 147 CC 52 24 0 24 ST 44 3 0 3

HS8 398 398 PT8 545 11 556 CC 61 51 0 51 ST 45 31 0 31

HS9 357 33 390 PT9 15 15 CC 206 51 0 51 ST 47 7 0 7

HS10 22 22 PT10 63 2 65 CC 257 117 1 118 ST 48 32 0 32

HS11 203 203 PT11 13 13 CC 283 16 0 16 ST 49 7 0 7

HS12 347 1 348 PT13 12 12 CC 353 80 0 80 ST 50 27 0 27

HS13 4008 4008 PT14 557 3 560 CC 354 40 0 40 ST 51 35 0 35

HS14 13 263 276 PT15 34 1 35 CC 362 2 0 2 ST 52 6 0 6

HS15 19 1 20 PT16 1 1 CC 403 19 0 19 ST 53 22 1 23

HS16 161 161 PT17 63 5 68 CC 433 3 0 3 ST 61 26 0 26

HS17 2 2 PT18 63 63 CC 443 58 0 58 ST 93 7 0 7

HS18 889 1 890 PT19 473 1 474 CC 446 11 0 11 ST 104 15 0 15

HS19 386 386 PT20 336 336 CC 460 14 0 14 ST 137 7 0 7

HS21 295 295 PT21 138 138 CC 464 9 0 9 ST 205 4 0 4

HS22 31 31 PT22 4 4 CC 508 3 0 3 ST 206 11 0 11

HS23 280 280 PT23 23 23 CC 573 12 0 12 ST 227 6 0 6

HS24 32 32 PT24 14 14 CC 574 40 2 42 ST 233 3 0 3

HS25 4 4 PT25 100 2 102 CC 607 22 0 22 ST 257 59 0 59

HS26 9 9 PT27 1 1 CC 658 30 0 30 ST 262 7 0 7

HS27 239 239 PT28 14 14 CC 661 12 0 12 ST 267 7 0 7

HS28 3 259 262 PT29 9 3 12 CC 677 1 0 1 ST 311 3 0 3

HS29 1 1 PT30 3 3 CC 692 2 0 2 ST 353 6 0 6

HS30 33 17 50 PT31 7 7 CC 702 2 0 2 ST 354 14 0 14

HS31 1315 2 1317 PT32 9 9 18 CC 828 1 73 74 ST 356 5 0 5

HS32 11 11 PT33 1726 4 1730 CC 1034 9 0 9 ST 367 5 0 5

HS33 28 28 PT34 1499 1499 CC 1287 1 0 1 ST 397 3 0 3

HS34 3 10 13 PT35 630 1 631 CC 1332 1 0 1 ST 400 9 0 9

HS35 69 69 PT36 573 2 575 No CC 166 24 190 ST 436 3 0 3

HS36 9 9 PT37 4 4 Total 1293 101 1394 ST 447 3 0 3

HS37 892 892 PT38 150 1 151 ST 464 3 0 3

HS39 9 9 PT39 968 27 995 ST 475 7 0 7

HS40 20 20 PT40 117 1 118 ST 572 8 0 8

HS41 9 9 PT41 20 20 ST 573 4 0 4

HS42 57 57 PT42 6 6 ST 574 29 0 29

HS43 33 33 PT43 32 32 ST 583 7 0 7

HS44 127 127 PT44 922 927 1849 ST 607 5 0 5

HS45 10 10 PT45 34 34 ST 658 9 0 9

HS48 1 23 24 PT46 4 4 ST 814 3 0 3

HS49 1 200 201 PT47 2 2 ST 824 3 1 4

HS50 3528 3528 PT48 64 64 ST 825 0 6 6

HS51 2 41 43 PT49 5 5 ST 827 0 11 11

HS52 50 50 PT50 15 15 ST 828 0 3 3

HS53 2 2 PT51 3 3 ST 829 0 4 4

HS55 70 70 PT52 10 10 ST 843 3 0 3

HS56 7 699 706 PT53 75 75 ST 872 0 3 3

HS57 42 42 PT54 127 127 ST 877 3 0 3

HS58 2 2 PT55 4 4 ST 883 5 0 5

HS59 4 32 36 PT56 18 18 ST 904 3 0 3

HS60 413 413 PT57 7 7 ST 977 3 0 3

HS61 1 82 83 PT58 19 19 ST 1009 0 3 3

HS62 10 10 PT59 18 18 ST 1079 3 0 3

HS63 217 1 218 PT60 13 13 ST 1371 3 0 3

HS66 215 215 PT61 11 11 ST 1374 3 0 3

HS67 117 117 PT62 170 170 ST 2496 3 0 3

HS68 101 101 PT63 139 2 141 ST 3466 3 0 3

HS69 74 74 PT64 87 2 89 ST 2 cases 126 14 140

UT 8675 457 9132 PT65 102 1 103 ST 1 case 572 54 626

Total 26688 2393 29081 PT66 16 3 19 ST unknown 7 1 8

PT67 201 1 202 Total 1293 101 1394

PT68 6 6

PT69 11 1 12

PT70 8 8

PT71 20 20

PT72 7 7

PT73 66 66

PT74 18 18

PT75 61 61

PT76 12 12

PT77 43 43

PT78 20 1 21

PT79 9 3 12

PT80 147 147

PT81 1 1

PT82 47 2 49

PT83 5 5

PT84 7 7

PT85 4 4

PT86 1 1

PTRDNC 1052 53 1105

PTUT 1334 214 1548

Total 26688 2393 29081

Page 16 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 41: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 17 17th

February 2011

* Campylobacter typing results are from C. jejuni and C. coli but other species identified at HPA

Colindale were: Arcobacter butzleri (50), A. cryaerophilus (4), A. species (1), C. fetus (123), C.

hyointestinalis (2), C. lari (8), C. upsaliensis (50), Helicobacter canadensis (2), H. cinerea (1), H.

pullorum (2).

‡Two thirds of serotypes of C. jejuni were represented in seven serotypes (HS13, 22%; HS50, 20%;

HS31 7%; HS37, 5%; HS18, 5%; HS2 & HS4, 4%).

†84% of C. coli were in five serotypes (HS 56, 36%; HS14, 14%; HS28, 13%; HS66, 11%, HS49, 10%).

While isolates from some HS/PT types were confined to C. jejuni or C. coli 17 types occurred in both,

although in most there was a predominance of one species. The exception was HS9 PT44 which was

roughly equal in numbers. Other types included HS12 PT44, HS14 PT1, HS14 PT44, HS18 PT2, HS2

PT44, HS30 PT1, HS31 PT39, HS34 PT1, HS49 PT2, HS51 PT2, HS56 PT1, HS56 PT2, HS56 PT44, HS61

PT1, HS9 PT1, HS9 PT2. It is notable that in isolates showing the same phage and serotype pattern

between C. jejuni and C. coli the HS 56, HS9, PT1, PT2 and PT44 phenotypes were prominent.

Page 17 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 42: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 18 17th

February 2011

Table 2. The main hypothesised drivers/mechanisms/transmission routes for changes in

Campylobacter.

Hypothesised contributing factor Estimated likelihood of causing:

Long term

change

Seasonal

spring

increase

Increase

in adults

over 50

years old

More

rural than

urban

cases

More

cases in

the more

affluent

Surveillance ascertainment

Impacts of NHS Direct (7) Medium Low Low Low Low

National reporting Medium Low Low Low Low

Changes in the surveillance system Low Low Low Low Medium

Changes in Campylobacter culture media Medium Low Low Low Low

Laboratory testing policy Medium Low Low Low Low

New laws requiring laboratory notification of Campylobacter * Low Low Low Low Low

Susceptibility

Increased proton pump inhibitor use High Low High Low Low

Immunity through prior exposure or infection Low Low Low Low Medium

Physiological differences between gender Low Low Low Low Low

Exposure

Increased contamination of chicken High Medium Low Low Low

Increased consumption of chicken (3) Medium Low Low Low Medium

Increased systemic Campylobacter infection in chicken High Medium Low Low Low

Sourcing chicken from different areas Medium Low Low Low Medium

Increase in non-chicken related sources Low Low Low Medium Low

Transmission from cattle to chickens by flies Low High Low Low Low

Transmission from faeces or raw meat to RTE food by flies Low High Low High Low

Biosecurity interventions for Salmonella control Medium Low Low Low Low

Country walks Medium Medium Medium High Medium

Contamination from agricultural animals Medium Medium Low High Medium

Contamination from pets Low Medium Low Medium Low

Contamination from wild birds Low Medium Low Low Low

Food preparation involving raw meats Medium Low Low Medium Low

Educational farm visits Medium Medium Low Medium Medium

Barbecued or grilled meat Medium High Medium Low Low

Private or untreated water supplies Low Medium Low Medium Medium

Mains drinking water Low Low Low Low Low

Surface water/ sewage exposure Medium Medium Low Medium Low

Social factors

Population aging/demographic change (7) High Low High Medium Low

The economic situation Medium Low Low Low Medium

Socioeconomic status Medium Low Low Medium High

Changes in Campylobacter in other countries Medium Medium Low Low Low

Kitchen behaviour Low Low Low Low Low

GP access High Low Low High High

Two weekly waste bin collections Low Low Low Low Low

Travel abroad Medium Low High Low High

Eating out Medium low Medium Low Medium

Environmental factors

Temperature Low Medium Low Low Low

Rainfall Low Low Low Low Low

Latitude/longitude Low Medium Low Medium Low

*Human disease notification

The evidence for the above scoring is included as a supplementary file with this paper.

Page 18 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 43: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Review of a million Campylobacter cases 19 17th

February 2011

Figure 1. Age distribution. Data from 1,109,406 laboratory confirmed cases reported in England and

Wales to national surveillance between 1989 and 2011. a. Campylobacter isolates from patients with

and without meningitis in different age groups as a percentage of all cases 1989 to 2009. b.

Campylobacter isolates from fatal and non-fatal cases in different age groups as a percentage of all

cases 1989 to 2009. c. Campylobacter cases per year from 1989 to 2011 by age (2011 data

provisional). d. Campylobacter cases per year 1989-2010 as a percentage of cases in different age

groups over 45 years old. e. Campylobacter cases by age and sex 1989-2009. f. Campylobacter cases

by age as a percentage of all cases for London and all other areas 1898-2009. g. Campylobacter cases

in people who had recently returned from abroad and all other cases 1989-2009. h. Age distribution

of Salmonella and Campylobacter. i. Change in age distribution over four five year time periods. j.

Campylobacter age and sex distribution in 2008. k. population age and sex distribution in 2008. l.

Campylobacter cases per 100,000 in 2008 by age and sex. m. Campylobacter cases per one year age

group as a percentage of all cases per year 1989 to 2009. n. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000

per year between 1989 and 2009 by age and sex.

Figure 2. The weekly distribution of Campylobacter cases as a percentage of all cases over different

age groups (unadjusted data).

Figure 3. Typing. Typing data on cases of Campylobacter from England and Wales 1989-2009. Data in

the HPA dataset (29,081 isolates) includes the number of C. jejuni and C. coli combined serotype (HS)

and phage type (PT) combinations (HS/PT) against the number of isolates in each type a. the

separate HS and PT types for C. jejuni and C. coli (b). The PubMLST database (1394 isolates) shows

the number of types from human cases against the number of patient isolates. The figures represent

individual sequenced genes for uncA (c.), tkt (d.), pgm (e.), glyA (f.), gltA (g.), glnA (h.) and aspA (i),

with an average of the seven genes (j.) and the individual ST and CC (k).

Figure 4. Resistance, spatial, social and temporal distribution. a. Resistance of Campylobacter

isolates to antibiotics between 1989 and 2009. b. Campylobacter cases per day before and after

Bank holidays in England and Wales 1989 to 2009. The dotted line represents an estimate of the

cases that would have occurred if there had not been a Bank Holiday. c. Time series of

campylobacter by day of year 1989 to 2009 showing unmodified data (OPIE raw), data adjusted for

day of week (OPIE), data also adjusted for bank holidays (adjusted) and also adjusted for long term

trend (normalised). d. Campylobacter cases by age and week of year. e. Seasonal distribution of

cases over and under ten years of age (normalised data). f. Regional differences in seasonal

distribution (normalised data). g and h. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000 for 2009 based on

the Medium level Lower Super Output Areas (g) and Lower level Super Output Areas (h). i.

Campylobacter cases per 100,000 in 2009 by population density and completeness of postcode

reporting. j. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000 per year and the index of multiple deprivation

(IMD) score. Differences between 2007 and 2009 reflect improving postcode reporting as cases

cannot be included in the figures without a postcode. k. Campylobacter prevalence by week in each

region against the local temperature two weeks before the case specimen date (2005 to 2009).

Page 19 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 44: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

205x296mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 20 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 45: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

205x296mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 21 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 46: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

205x296mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 22 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 47: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

205x296mm (300 x 300 DPI)

Page 23 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 48: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Justification for the drivers in: Table 2. The main hypothesised drivers for changes in

Campylobacter.

Below are the hypothesised contributing factor and their estimated likelihood of causing: 1. Long term change; 2. Seasonal

spring increase; 3. Increase in adults over 50 years old; 4. More rural than urban cases; 5. More cases in the more affluent, in

Campylobacter cases. The scoring as Low, Medium or High is on the basis of published literature and rational examination of

the evidence base.

Table 2. The main hypothesised drivers for changes in Campylobacter.

Hypothesised contributing factor Estimated likelihood of causing:

Long

term

change

Seasonal

spring

increase

Increase

in adults

over 50

years old

More

rural than

urban

cases

More

cases in

the more

affluent

Surveillance ascertainment

Impacts of NHS Direct Medium Low Low Low Low

National reporting Medium Low Low Low Low

Changes in the surveillance system Low Low Low Low Medium

Changes in Campylobacter culture media Medium Low Low Low Low

Laboratory testing policy Medium Low Low Low Low

New laws requiring laboratory notification of Campylobacter * Low Low Low Low Low

Susceptibility

Increased proton pump inhibitor use High Low High Low Low

Immunity through prior exposure or infection Low Low Low Low Medium

Exposure

Increased contamination of chicken High Medium Low Low Low

Increased consumption of chicken Medium Low Low Low Medium

Increased systemic Campylobacter infection in chicken High Medium Low Low Low

Sourcing chicken from different areas Medium Low Low Low Medium

Increase in non-chicken related sources Low Low Low Medium Low

Transmission from cattle to chickens by flies Low High Low Low Low

Transmission from faeces or raw meat to RTE food by flies Low High Low High Low

Biosecurity interventions for Salmonella control Medium Low Low Low Low

Country walks Medium Medium Medium High Medium

Contamination from agricultural animals Medium Medium Low High Medium

Contamination from pets Low Medium Low Medium Low

Contamination from wild birds Low Medium Low Low Low

Food preparation involving raw meats Medium Low Low Medium Low

Educational farm visits Medium Medium Low Medium Medium

Barbecued or grilled meat Medium High Medium Low Low

Private or untreated water supplies Low Medium Low Medium Medium

Mains drinking water Low Low Low Low Low

Surface water/ sewage exposure Medium Medium Low Medium Low

Social factors

Population aging/demographic change High Low High Medium Low

The economic situation Medium Low Low Low Medium

Socioeconomic status Medium Low Low Medium High

Changes in Campylobacter in other countries Medium Medium Low Low Low

Kitchen behaviour Low Low Low Low Low

GP access High Low Low High High

Two weekly waste bin collections Low Low Low Low Low

Travel abroad Medium Low High Low High

Eating out Medium low Medium Low Medium

Environmental factors

Temperature Low Medium Low Low Low

Rainfall Low Low Low Low Low

Latitude/longitude Low Medium Low Medium Low

*Human disease notification

Page 24 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 49: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

The Impact of NHS Direct has been hypothesized to be to prevent a proportion of cases reaching surveillance as a result of a

cohort being dealt with through NHS Direct and never having a laboratory examination. It is argued that this could have an

impact on long-term reporting in children, but less so in adults (1). Others have argued that the impact of this is likely to be

small (2). Because it is a systematic change in surveillance it would be unlikely to show as a seasonal effect. The steady increase

in cases in the elderly suggests this effect has not had a substantial impact on reporting in the elderly. There is no evidence that

any differential reduction of reporting should more greatly affect urban than rural or affluent than poor.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

National reporting can be influenced by social factors with the bank holidays representing a particular example of a seasonal

change that seems to be related to reduced access to primary healthcare services. Changes in national reporting could also

have an impact on the number of annual cases reported as a result of local or national changes in the reporting process

(anything from physician policy on faecal sample testing, laboratory policy on tests undertaken and completeness of reporting).

These changes would be most obvious in influencing long-term changes in local or national reporting than they would in

seasonal, adult, rural, or poor populations.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Changes in the surveillance system that have occurred over the period of this study have included better data capture through

computer reporting, the impacts of the change from PHLS to HPA, the more standardized data collection that began in 2002,

changes in GP access including NHS Direct, the conducting of Sentinel Surveillance, CLASSP and case-control studies, which

could have increased case numbers temporarily. There seem to be relatively few impacts of changes in surveillance on these

five variables, and although the difference between more affluent and less affluent might be influenced by changes in the

surveillance system these do not appear to be large if they occur at all.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Changes in Campylobacter culture could influence the long term reporting of Campylobacter. The period of time between

defecation and culture can influence isolation rate as can the antibiotic additives, the gas mixture and any enrichment used.

There is little published information on the impact of these methodological factors on isolation, although the use of membrane

methods in South Africa suggests that it is possible to routinely isolate a wider range of species using these methods,

presumably becausee some strains such as C. consisus are more sensitive to the selective antibiotics used in Campylobacter

isolation media. There is no evidence that this has had a significant impact on the five criteria, but if it had it would be most

likely with the long term figures as culture methods have improved over time.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Laboratory testing policy can greatly influence both national reporting and the age distribution of reported cases. The main

impact would probably be on the completeness of reporting as measured by cases per year, rather than the other factors. Any

changes would be likely to be over a long time period.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

Page 25 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 50: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

New laws requiring laboratory notification of Campylobacter might be found to have influenced national reporting as a result

of voluntary laboratory reporting systems being made mandatory. At present this does not seem to be the case.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Increased proton pump inhibitor use has been postulated as an important factor in Campylobacter infection (3-6). Because

the use of such drugs has increased over recent years there is a reasonable indication that the impact of there could have had a

big effect on the overall numbers of cases of Campylobacter reported through surveillance, and because these are drugs

frequently taken by older people then the higher incidence of infection in this group may be linked.

1. Long term change High

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old High

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Immunity through prior exposure or infection is found in a variety of enteric pathogens. With Campylobacter the argument is

that some groups are more exposed to Campylobacter through chicken (7-9) with repeated infection comes a degree of

resistance to symptomatic disease if not infection following exposure. The lower incidence of Campylobacter infection in

people living in areas of low socioeconomic status could reflect lower exposure, poorer access to healthcare or more infection

in childhood conferring resistance to infection as an adult. If community exposure to Campylobacter over the years has

declined then one could expect more cases in the younger population rather than the observed increase in people over 50

years. In some case-control studies the recent consumption of chicken Is protective, suggesting exposure Is leading to

Immunity (10).

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Increased contamination of chicken might be an explanation for the increased cases over time. Chicken is commonly

contaminated with Campylobacter and a significant fraction of human infection is thought to derive from chicken (11-19).

There is some evidence that chicken flocks are more contaminated with Campylobacter in the summer, although this rise in

contamination seems to follow the rise in human disease rather than precede it (20-25). The increase could be in percentage

contamination of chicken or the heaviness of contamination. It is not impossible that a mechanism explaining a link between

increased contamination of chicken and increases in the elderly or the more affluent might be possible, but is currently thought

unlikely. If the seasonal contamination of flocks is caused by flies as has been suggested then this may play a role in both the

seasonality of human disease and the increased seasonal contamination of chickens with cattle strains (check references).

Cross contamination from chicken to salads and soft fruits (18;26-28) might be seasonal whereas to other ready to eat meals

may not be. The types of Campylobacter on chicken may also be important in both seasonality and long term changes (29).

1. Long term change High

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Increased consumption of chicken could potentially be an explanation for a long term increase in human Campylobacter

infection. However, there does not seem to be clear evidence that chicken consumption in England and Wales has had an

Page 26 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 51: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

impact on the occurrence of human disease. The seasonality of Campylobacter is unlikely to be greatly affected by the

seasonality of chicken consumption, although cross contamination of salad items might be expected to be more seasonal. As

chicken is the commonest risk factor for Campylobacter infection, and it is a cheap food, then differences in socioeconomic

status could affect chicken consumption and have an impact on infection, although there is no published evidence for this.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Increased systemic Campylobacter infection in chicken might expose people to infection more commonly if there are foci of

infection in muscle and liver for example. The recent rise in outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are as a result of

undercooking chicken livers. The contamination could be internal or external, but an explanation involving an increase in

systemic or hepatic infection causing more livers to be internally contaminated might explain the long term increase in cases in

general and the outbreaks in particular.

1. Long term change High

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Sourcing chicken from different areas might be a possible reason for an increase in Campylobacter in the longer term. This

could be differences between Campylobacter contamination of chickens from different UK producers, but could also be those

in other EU states and countries outside of the EU. There is little supporting evidence in this area.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Increase in non-chicken related sources remains a possibility for the long term increase in human Campylobacter infections.

This is an area that may be resolved by source attribution. As non-chicken sources are more common in rural areas it will be

interesting to see if the chicken related strains increase or decrease over time with interventions in chicken production. This

has been observed in New Zealand following interventions to reduce chicken contamination (30-32).

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Transmission from cattle to chickens by flies remains an important component of the biosecurity aspects of the control of

Campylobacter in chicken flocks (33;34). As flies are seasonal and their numbers and activity have been hypothesized to

coincide with the rise in flock contamination with Campylobacter and with human disease (35;36). Transmission from cattle to

chicken flocks is more likely to occur in a rural setting, but chicken production is also likely to be rural so this may not have an

impact on human disease.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase High

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Transmission from faeces or raw meat to RTE food by flies has been hypothesized as a transmission route that bypasses most

of the HACCP food chain protection by the direct transmission of faecal contamination to ready to eat foods (35;36). This could

Page 27 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 52: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

be expected to have a seasonal impact, and to be more marked in rural than urban areas. One could postulate that the poor

might have greater exposure to flies than the rich but there is little evidence that this is the case in the UK. It is assumed that fly

populations can change from year to year but are not the main driver for long term changes, or for the increase in adults.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase High

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases High

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Biosecurity interventions for Salmonella control are an important part of the reductions in infection that have contributed to

fewer S. Enteritidis infections over recent years (37). If these interventions work for Salmonella then it is reasoned that they

could also have some impact on Campylobacter contamination of chicken flocks. It is possible that the reductions in

Campylobacter during the early 2000’s were associated with increased biosecurity and that the subsequent rise in cases has

been as a result of less vigilant subsequent biosecurity because the vaccination is maintaining low Salmonella contamination

rates in flocks.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Country walks have been hypothesized as a source of exposure to Campylobacter becausee contamination of the environment

is high. Although the sources of contamination are complicated, the country walk may be only one of a number of transmission

routes (38). An increase in country walks could contribute to long term change, particularly in the elderly and more affluent.

Walking could also contribute to seasonal changes in infection and is by it's nature more common in rural areas. However,

evidence supporting this is not robust and the attributable fraction of people deriving their infections from country walks is

probably low.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Medium

4. More rural than urban cases High

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Contamination from agricultural animals is a likely source for some Campylobacter infections because they are such a source

of contamination within the agricultural environment (39). Large changes, such as the impacts of the 2001 foot and mouth

outbreak, could have contributed to long term changes, and putting agricultural animals out to pasture in the spring may also

contribute to direct or indirect exposure of people to Campylobacter.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases High

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Contamination from pets has long been argued as a source of Campylobacter infection (40-45), although the attributable

fraction might be small. It is unlikely to have changed substantially over recent years, but supporting evidence for this is not

available. It would be reasonable to assume that pets in the country might be more exposed to animal sources of

Campylobacter contamination than those in urban areas, although the evidence for this is limited.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Page 28 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 53: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Contamination from wild birds is a recognized potential source of human infection (46-49). Because many birds are migratory

it is possible that human exposure to their faeces will change through the year and be a driver for disease (50;51). The burden

of disease attributed to bird sources seems however to be low. The commonest likely exposure route would be direct contact

with contaminated bird faeces in the garden, contamination of field grown fruit and vegetables and contamination of source

waters for irrigation. Bird-pecked milk in bottles can cause Campylobacter infection (52;52;53) and the source is probably cow

faeces. Bird pecked milk related infections appear to be seasonal in distribution with a marked increase in May (54).

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Food preparation involving raw meats can change over time and could have an impact on human Campylobacter infections.

Preparing raw meats is an important risk factor for human disease and social and economic changes that influence meat

preparation could affect disease. For example in a period of economic decline, such as we have experienced over the last four

years, people may eat out less and prepare meals at home more. People in the countryside may have a different exposure to

raw meats than those in urban areas.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Educational farm visits can be a source of outbreaks with a variety of gastrointestinal infections. Campylobacter strains from

cattle have been linked to strains from human infections (55;56). Cattle and sheep represent a significant reservoir of

Campylobacter (57;58), and the occurrence of milk-borne outbreaks (13;59-65) suggests that other routes may occur. There is

evidence that faecal shedding by sheep is more frequent around lambing (66). The perceived increase in attendances at farms

over recent years could contribute to long term changes, is likely to be seasonal, may be more frequent in the more affluent

and more likely in rural areas. However, outbreaks of Campylobacter linked to farm visits are infrequent compared to

Cryptosporidium and VTEC so the attributable fraction of cases related to farm visits may be small. An outbreak of

Campylobacter in workers on a Pheasant farm shows that farm workers can acquire infections directly (67).

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Barbecued or grilled meat represent a source of exposure to Campylobacter that is known to be seasonal (3;68-75). If

barbecuing is increasing then this could influence a long term increase in cases as well as the increase in older people, although

there is no evidence for this. There is no evidence that barbecues are more of a risk to urban than rural or affluent than poor

people.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase High

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Medium

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Private or untreated water supplies can result in outbreaks of Campylobacter which is the commonest pathogen causing such

outbreaks (76;77). Outbreaks linked to private water supplies may show some seasonality, and will be more common in rural

than urban areas. There could be differences in wealth between people on private water supplies but it seems unlikely that this

could explain the excess of cases in the affluent, the increase in adults over 50 years old or the long term trend.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

Page 29 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 54: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Mains drinking water has been involved in outbreaks of Campylobacter (78-88), and these are more common in countries

where chlorination is not universal (89) or where chlorination has failed (90). There is no evidence that Campylobacter

transmission through drinking water is common in England and Wales or is likely to have had a significant impact on the five

parameters.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Surface water/sewage exposure through contamination of recreational water (91-94), including inland and coastal bathing and

water-sports may be seasonal. Exposure can be influenced by changes in water quality or behavior, and may change over years.

Exposure is more likely in rural areas but is unlikely to be greatly influenced by affluence.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Population aging/demographic change is a good candidate for explaining the long term change in Campylobacter cases, and

may similarly partly explain the increase in cases in the elderly. It is possible that movement of older people out of urban areas

could be an explanation for some of the excess of cases in rural areas. However, the population effects are unlikely to have an

impact on seasonality, although the age structure might (95).

1. Long term change High

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old High

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

The economic situation has changed people’s behavior and this may contribute to long term changes in Campylobacter

infection. Measurements of these behavioral changes (e.g. change in eating arrangements) might contribute to long term

changes in infection rates and could alter the rates between affluent and poor.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Socioeconomic status itself may explain the excess of cases in people living in more affluent areas, although ethnic origin,

exposure to different foods (96) and other factors may contribute to this.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent High

Changes in Campylobacter in other countries that resemble those seen in England and Wales are assumed to show some more

fundamental relationship that affects all countries. For example the seasonality (more cases in summer months) can be seen in

most European countries but the rise and fall in cases has a different timing in different countries, suggesting an indirect

relationship to weather (97). Similarly changes in the long term rates of infection that move in a similar way across different

countries might be assumed to reflect common drivers or mechanisms across these countries.

Page 30 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 55: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Kitchen behaviour might be assumed to be common across most adults, over longer term periods, over different seasonal, in

rural and urban areas and across the social spectrum. Whether this is the case is unclear, but there is little evidence that these

factors influence the changes in disease over the five criteria.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

GP access is likely to be poorer in some social groups than others, and is probably variable geographically. This is unlikely to be

an explanation for seasonality or the increase in people over 50 years, but could contribute to differences in urban/rural and

socioeconomic status but may also have contributed to some of the changes over the longer term.

1. Long term change High

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases High

5. More cases in the more affluent High

Two weekly waste bin collections have been considered as potentially increasing the risks of food-borne diseases to people

locally because food waste may decompose and flies may arise. Because there has been a recent trend to collecting household

waste on a two weekly rather than weekly basis along with recycling parts of the rubbish it is plausible that there could have

been a change in Campylobacter associated with this. However, there is no evidence for this having any effect on

Campylobacter infections.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Travel abroad is an important risk factor for many enteric infections (98;99) and for Campylobacter (100-102), including

military service (100;103) and probably represents a significant percentage of all cases of travellers diarrhoea (104-107). In

some countries more than 50% of Campylobacter cases may be linked to foreign travel (108). In England and Wales about a

fifth of Campylobacter cases are thought to follow travel abroad. The seasonality of infections can be specific for individual

countries (109). Travel is more common in the more affluent and is increasingly common in the elderly, possibly contributing to

the rise in cases in this group. Although travel is seasonal and contributes to the overall seasonality of Campylobacter it does

not explain the late spring increase. Travel is probably not a significant cause of the differences seen between urban and rural

populations.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old High

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent High

Eating out is an activity that can change our exposure to Campylobacter, either for the better or worse. Changes in the extent

to which people eat out could contribute to longer term changes in exposure to Campylobacter and might be influenced by

socioeconomic status and age.

1. Long term change Medium

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

Page 31 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 56: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Medium

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Medium

Temperature is known to have some association with Campylobacter and this is thought to be indirect (95;97). While it might

explain some of the seasonality it is unlikely to be the only factor causing it. Temperature appears to have little explanatory

value on relation to the other key factors.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Rainfall does not correlate well with Campylobacter, but could be involved in outbreaks linked to private water supplies. It

does not appear to have a significant impact on any of the factors.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Low

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Low

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Latitude/longitude show some effect in relation to the spring rise in Campylobacter cases which increase earlier in more

Western and Northern areas, and part of this may be down to more rural populations living in these areas.

1. Long term change Low

2. Seasonal spring increase Medium

3. Increase in adults over 50 years old Low

4. More rural than urban cases Medium

5. More cases in the more affluent Low

Interpretation of what the paper shows

Based on the inferences drawn up in Table 2 the biggest influences on long term change appear to be chicken contamination,

proton pump inhibitor use, demographics and access to a GP. For seasonal changes the flies and barbecued food seem to be

the most likely drivers. For the long term increase in the percentage of Campylobacter cases in people 50 years, proton pump

inhibitor use, demographics and travel seem to be the most important factors driving the change. In explaining the differences

between urban and rural cases possible important factors are flies, walking in the countryside, contact with animals and GP

access, although the generally older population in less urban areas may also contribute. The difference in rates of infection

between deprived and non-deprived groups seems to relate to socioeconomic status and income, to access to health services

and probably also to greater exposure to Campylobacter through travel.

Chicken remains an important source of infection, although the change in case numbers in this report does not seem to

correlate to chicken consumption.

Page 32 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 57: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Reference List

(1) Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, Bolton FJ. Age patterns of persons with campylobacteriosis, England and Wales, 1990-2007.

Emerg Infect Dis 2009 Dec;15(12):2046-8.

(2) Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, Viviani L, Dodds JP, Evans MR, Hunter PR, et al. Longitudinal study of infectious intestinal

disease in the UK (IID2 study): incidence in the community and presenting to general practice. Gut 2011 Jun 27.

(3) Doorduyn Y, Van Den Brandhof WE, Van Duynhoven YT, Breukink BJ, Wagenaar JA, VAN PW. Risk factors for

indigenous Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli infections in The Netherlands: a case-control study.

Epidemiol Infect 2010 Oct;138(10):1391-404.

(4) Tam CC, Higgins CD, Neal KR, Rodrigues LC, Millership SE, O'Brien SJ. Chicken consumption and use of acid-

suppressing medications as risk factors for Campylobacter enteritis, England. Emerg Infect Dis 2009 Sep;15(9):1402-

8.

(5) Doorduyn Y, VAN PW, Siezen CL, Van Der Horst F, Van Duynhoven YT, Hoebee B, et al. Novel insight in the

association between salmonellosis or campylobacteriosis and chronic illness, and the role of host genetics in

susceptibility to these diseases. Epidemiol Infect 2008 Sep;136(9):1225-34.

(6) Neal KR, Slack RC. Diabetes mellitus, anti-secretory drugs and other risk factors for campylobacter gastro-enteritis in

adults: a case-control study. Epidemiol Infect 1997 Dec;119(3):307-11.

(7) Wilson IG. Airborne Campylobacter infection in a poultry worker: case report and review of the literature. Commun

Dis Public Health 2004 Dec;7(4):349-53.

(8) Price LB, Roess A, Graham JP, Baqar S, Vailes R, Sheikh KA, et al. Neurologic symptoms and neuropathologic

antibodies in poultry workers exposed to Campylobacter jejuni. J Occup Environ Med 2007 Jul;49(7):748-55.

(9) Potter RC, Kaneene JB, Gardiner J. A comparison of Campylobacter jejuni enteritis incidence rates in high- and low-

poultry-density counties: Michigan 1992-1999. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2002;2(3):137-43.

(10) Eberhart-Phillips J, Walker N, Garrett N, Bell D, Sinclair D, Rainger W, et al. Campylobacteriosis in New Zealand:

results of a case-control study. J Epidemiol Community Health 1997 Dec;51(6):686-91.

(11) Pearson AD, Greenwood MH, Donaldson J, Healing TD, Jones DM, Shahamat M, et al. Continuous source outbreak of

campylobacteriosis traced to chicken. J Food Prot 2000 Mar;63(3):309-14.

(12) Evans MR, Lane W, Frost JA, Nylen G. A campylobacter outbreak associated with stir-fried food. Epidemiol Infect

1998 Oct;121(2):275-9.

(13) Pebody RG, Ryan MJ, Wall PG. Outbreaks of campylobacter infection: rare events for a common pathogen. Commun

Dis Rep CDR Rev 1997 Mar 7;7(3):R33-R37.

(14) Murphy O, Gray J, Gordon S, Bint AJ. An outbreak of campylobacter food poisoning in a health care setting. J Hosp

Infect 1995 Jul;30(3):225-8.

(15) Allerberger F, Al Jazrawi N, Kreidl P, Dierich MP, Feierl G, Hein I, et al. Barbecued Chicken Causing a Multi-State

Outbreak of Campylobacter jejuni Enteritis. Infect 2003 Jan;31(1):19-23.

(16) Kessel AS, Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, Adak GK, Humphrey TJ, Ward LR. General outbreaks of infectious intestinal

disease linked with poultry, England and Wales, 1992-1999. Commun Dis Public Health 2001 Sep;4(3):171-7.

(17) Rodrigues LC, Cowden JM, Wheeler JG, Sethi D, Wall PG, Cumberland P, et al. The study of infectious intestinal

disease in England: risk factors for cases of infectious intestinal disease with Campylobacter jejuni infection.

Epidemiol Infect 2001 Oct;127(2):185-93.

(18) Anon. Outbreak of Campylobacter enteritis associated with cross-contamination of food--Oklahoma, 1996. MMWR

Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 1998 Feb 27;47(7):129-31.

(19) Layton MC, Calliste SG, Gomez TM, Patton C, Brooks S. A mixed foodborne outbreak with Salmonella heidelberg and

Campylobacter jejuni in a nursing home. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 1997 Feb;18(2):115-21.

(20) Wilson IG. Salmonella and campylobacter contamination of raw retail chickens from different producers: a six year

survey. Epidemiol Infect 2002 Dec;129(3):635-45.

Page 33 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 58: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

(21) Hanninen ML, Perko-Makela P, Pitkala A, Rautelin H. A three-year study of Campylobacter jejuni genotypes in

humans with domestically acquired infections and in chicken samples from the Helsinki area. J Clin Microbiol 2000

May;38(5):1998-2000.

(22) Hudson JA, Nicol C, Wright J, Whyte R, Hasell SK. Seasonal variation of Campylobacter types from human cases,

veterinary cases, raw chicken, milk and water. J Appl Microbiol 1999 Jul;87(1):115-24.

(23) Wallace JS, Stanley KN, Currie JE, Diggle PJ, Jones K. Seasonality of thermophilic Campylobacter populations in

chickens. J Appl Microbiol 1997 Feb;82(2):219-24.

(24) Humphrey TJ, Henley A, Lanning DG. The colonization of broiler chickens with Campylobacter jejuni: some

epidemiological investigations. Epidemiol Infect 1993 Jun;110(3):601-7.

(25) Kapperud G, Skjerve E, Vik L, Hauge K, Lysaker A, Aalmen I, et al. Epidemiological investigation of risk factors for

campylobacter colonization in Norwegian broiler flocks. Epidemiol Infect 1993 Oct;111(2):245-55.

(26) Ronveaux O, Quoilin S, Van Loock F, Lheureux P, Struelens M, Butzler JP. A Campylobacter coli foodborne outbreak

in Belgium. Acta Clin Belg 2000 Nov;55(6):307-11.

(27) Roels TH, Wickus B, Bostrom HH, Kazmierczak JJ, Nicholson MA, Kurzynski TA, et al. A foodborne outbreak of

Campylobacter jejuni (O:33) infection associated with tuna salad: a rare strain in an unusual vehicle. Epidemiol

Infect 1998 Oct;121(2):281-7.

(28) Kirk M, Waddell R, Dalton C, Creaser A, Rose N. A prolonged outbreak of Campylobacter infection at a training

facility. Commun Dis Intell 1997 Mar 6;21(5):57-61.

(29) Gormley FJ, MacRae M, Forbes KJ, Ogden ID, Dallas JF, Strachan NJ. Has retail chicken played a role in the decline of

human campylobacteriosis? Appl Environ Microbiol 2008 Jan;74(2):383-90.

(30) Muellner P, Marshall JC, Spencer SE, Noble AD, Shadbolt T, Collins-Emerson JM, et al. Utilizing a combination of

molecular and spatial tools to assess the effect of a public health intervention. Prev Vet Med 2011 Dec 1;102(3):242-

53.

(31) Sears A, Baker MG, Wilson N, Marshall J, Muellner P, Campbell DM, et al. Marked campylobacteriosis decline after

interventions aimed at poultry, new zealand. Emerg Infect Dis 2011 Jun;17(6):1007-15.

(32) Mullner P, Collins-Emerson JM, Midwinter AC, Carter P, Spencer SE, van der Logt P, et al. Molecular epidemiology of

Campylobacter jejuni in a geographically isolated country with a uniquely structured poultry industry. Appl Environ

Microbiol 2010 Apr;76(7):2145-54.

(33) Hald B, Skovgard H, Pedersen K, Bunkenborg H. Influxed insects as vectors for Campylobacter jejuni and

Campylobacter coli in Danish broiler houses. Poult Sci 2008 Jul;87(7):1428-34.

(34) Hald B, Sommer HM, Skovgard H. Use of fly screens to reduce Campylobacter spp. introduction in broiler houses.

Emerg Infect Dis 2007 Dec;13(12):1951-3.

(35) Ekdahl K, Normann B, Andersson Y. Could flies explain the elusive epidemiology of campylobacteriosis? BMC Infect

Dis 2005;5(1):11.

(36) Nichols GL. Fly transmission of Campylobacter. Emerg Infect Dis 2005 Mar;11(3):361-4.

(37) Nichols G. Mapping out the causes of infectious diseases: a case study on the multiple factors involved in Salmonella

Enteritidis infections. In: Ayres JG, Harrison RM, Nichols G, Maynard RL, editors. Environmental Medicine.London:

Hodder; 2010. p. 102-5.

(38) Ethelberg S, Simonsen J, Gerner-Smidt P, Olsen KE, Molbak K. Spatial distribution and registry-based case-control

analysis of Campylobacter infections in Denmark, 1991-2001. Am J Epidemiol 2005 Nov 15;162(10):1008-15.

(39) Stanley K, Jones K. Cattle and sheep farms as reservoirs of Campylobacter. J Appl Microbiol 2003;94 Suppl:104S-13S.

(40) Parsons BN, Williams NJ, Pinchbeck GL, Christley RM, Hart CA, Gaskell RM, et al. Prevalence and shedding patterns

of Campylobacter spp. in longitudinal studies of kennelled dogs. Vet J 2010 Nov 18.

(41) Salihu MD, Magaji AA, Abdulkadir JU, Kolawale A. Survey of thermophilic Campylobacter species in cats and dogs in

north-western Nigeria. Vet Ital 2010 Oct;46(4):425-30.

Page 34 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 59: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

(42) Acke E, McGill K, Golden O, Jones BR, Fanning S, Whyte P. Prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter species in

household cats and dogs in Ireland. Vet Rec 2009 Jan 10;164(2):44-7.

(43) Koene MG, Houwers DJ, Dijkstra JR, Duim B, Wagenaar JA. Strain variation within Campylobacter species in fecal

samples from dogs and cats. Vet Microbiol 2009 Jan 1;133(1-2):199-205.

(44) Parsons BN, Cody AJ, Porter CJ, Stavisky JH, Smith JL, Williams NJ, et al. Typing of Campylobacter jejuni isolates from

dogs by use of multilocus sequence typing and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. J Clin Microbiol 2009

Nov;47(11):3466-71.

(45) Acke E, Whyte P, Jones BR, McGill K, Collins JD, Fanning S. Prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter species in cats

and dogs in two animal shelters in Ireland. Vet Rec 2006 Jan 14;158(2):51-4.

(46) Waldenstrom J, Axelsson-Olsson D, Olsen B, Hasselquist D, Griekspoor P, Jansson L, et al. Campylobacter jejuni

colonization in wild birds: results from an infection experiment. PLoS One 2010;5(2):e9082.

(47) Hughes LA, Bennett M, Coffey P, Elliott J, Jones TR, Jones RC, et al. Molecular epidemiology and characterization of

Campylobacter spp. isolated from wild bird populations in northern England. Appl Environ Microbiol 2009

May;75(10):3007-15.

(48) Waldenstrom J, On SL, Ottvall R, Hasselquist D, Olsen B. Species diversity of campylobacteria in a wild bird

community in Sweden. J Appl Microbiol 2007 Feb;102(2):424-32.

(49) Broman T, Waldenstrom J, Dahlgren D, Carlsson I, Eliasson I, Olsen B. Diversities and similarities in PFGE profiles of

Campylobacter jejuni isolated from migrating birds and humans. J Appl Microbiol 2004;96(4):834-43.

(50) Waldenstrom J, Broman T, Carlsson I, Hasselquist D, Achterberg RP, Wagenaar JA, et al. Prevalence of

Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter lari, and Campylobacter coli in different ecological guilds and taxa of migrating

birds. Appl Environ Microbiol 2002 Dec;68(12):5911-7.

(51) Broman T, Palmgren H, Bergstrom S, Sellin M, Waldenstrom J, Danielsson-Tham ML, et al. Campylobacter jejuni in

black-headed gulls (Larus ridibundus): prevalence, genotypes, and influence on C. jejuni epidemiology. J Clin

Microbiol 2002 Dec;40(12):4594-602.

(52) Riordan T, Humphrey TJ, Fowles A. A point source outbreak of campylobacter infection related to bird-pecked milk.

Epidemiol Infect 1993 Apr;110(2):261-5.

(53) Stuart J, Sufi F, McNulty C, Park P. Outbreak of campylobacter enteritis in a residential school associated with bird

pecked bottle tops. Commun Dis Rep CDR Rev 1997 Mar 7;7(3):R38-R40.

(54) Sopwith W, Ashton M, Frost JA, Tocque K, O'Brien S, Regan M, et al. Enhanced surveillance of campylobacter

infection in the north west of England 1997-1999. J Infect 2003 Jan;46(1):35-45.

(55) Schouls LM, Reulen S, Duim B, Wagenaar JA, Willems RJ, Dingle KE, et al. Comparative genotyping of Campylobacter

jejuni by amplified fragment length polymorphism, multilocus sequence typing, and short repeat sequencing: strain

diversity, host range, and recombination. J Clin Microbiol 2003 Jan;41(1):15-26.

(56) Nielsen EM, Engberg J, Fussing V, Petersen L, Brogren CH, On SL. Evaluation of phenotypic and genotypic methods

for subtyping Campylobacter jejuni isolates from humans, poultry, and cattle. J Clin Microbiol 2000 Oct;38(10):3800-

10.

(57) Savill M, Hudson A, Devane M, Garrett N, Gilpin B, Ball A. Elucidation of potential transmission routes of

Campylobacter in New Zealand. Water Sci Technol 2003;47(3):33-8.

(58) Stanley K, Jones K. Cattle and sheep farms as reservoirs of Campylobacter. J Appl Microbiol 2003;94 Suppl 1:104-13.

(59) Lehner A, Schneck C, Feierl G, Pless P, Deutz A, Brandl E, et al. Epidemiologic application of pulsed-field gel

electrophoresis to an outbreak of Campylobacter jejuni in an Austrian youth centre. Epidemiol Infect 2000

Aug;125(1):13-6.

(60) Djuretic T, Wall PG, Nichols G. General outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease associated with milk and dairy

products in England and Wales: 1992 to 1996. Commun Dis Rep CDR Rev 1997 Mar 7;7(3):R41-R45.

(61) Evans MR, Roberts RJ, Ribeiro CD, Gardner D, Kembrey D. A milk-borne campylobacter outbreak following an

educational farm visit. Epidemiol Infect 1996 Dec;117(3):457-62.

Page 35 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 60: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

(62) Wood RC, MacDonald KL, Osterholm MT. Campylobacter enteritis outbreaks associated with drinking raw milk

during youth activities. A 10-year review of outbreaks in the United States. JAMA 1992 Dec 9;268(22):3228-30.

(63) Kalman M, Szollosi E, Czermann B, Zimanyi M, Szekeres S, Kalman M. Milkborne campylobacter infection in Hungary.

J Food Prot 2000 Oct;63(10):1426-9.

(64) Anon. Cryptosporidiosis in England and Wales: prevalence and clinical and epidemiological features. Public Health

Laboratory Service Study Group. BMJ 1990 Mar 24;300(6727):774-7.

(65) Morgan D, Gunneberg C, Gunnell D, Healing TD, Lamerton S, Soltanpoor N, et al. An outbreak of Campylobacter

infection associated with the consumption of unpasteurised milk at a large festival in England. Eur J Epidemiol 1994

Oct;10(5):581-5.

(66) Jones K, Howard S, Wallace JS. Intermittent shedding of thermophilic campylobacters by sheep at pasture. J Appl

Microbiol 1999 Mar;86(3):531-6.

(67) Heryford AG, Seys SA. Outbreak of occupational campylobacteriosis associated with a pheasant farm. J Agric Saf

Health 2004 May;10(2):127-32.

(68) Allerberger F, Al-Jazrawi N, Kreidl P, Dierich MP, Feierl G, Hein I, et al. Barbecued chicken causing a multi-state

outbreak of Campylobacter jejuni enteritis. Infection 2003 Jan;31(1):19-23.

(69) Kapperud G, Espeland G, Wahl E, Walde A, Herikstad H, Gustavsen S, et al. Factors associated with increased and

decreased risk of Campylobacter infection: a prospective case-control study in Norway. Am J Epidemiol 2003 Aug

1;158(3):234-42.

(70) Neimann J, Engberg J, Molbak K, Wegener HC. A case-control study of risk factors for sporadic campylobacter

infections in Denmark. Epidemiol Infect 2003 Jun;130(3):353-66.

(71) Ikram R, Chambers S, Mitchell P, Brieseman MA, Ikam OH. A case control study to determine risk factors for

campylobacter infection in Christchurch in the summer of 1992-3. N Z Med J 1994 Oct 26;107(988):430-2.

(72) Kapperud G, Skjerve E, Bean NH, Ostroff SM, Lassen J. Risk factors for sporadic Campylobacter infections: results of a

case-control study in southeastern Norway. J Clin Microbiol 1992 Dec;30(12):3117-21.

(73) Butzler JP, Oosterom J. Campylobacter: pathogenicity and significance in foods. Int J Food Microbiol 1991

Jan;12(1):1-8.

(74) Istre GR, Blaser MJ, Shillam P, Hopkins RS. Campylobacter enteritis associated with undercooked barbecued chicken.

Am J Public Health 1984 Nov;74(11):1265-7.

(75) Oosterom J, den Uyl CH, Banffer JR, Huisman J. Epidemiological investigations on Campylobacter jejuni in

households with a primary infection. J Hyg (Lond) 1984 Oct;93(2):325-32.

(76) Said B, Wright F, Nichols GL, Reacher M, Rutter M. Outbreaks of infectious disease associated with private drinking

water supplies in England and Wales 1970-2000. Epidemiol Infect 2003 Jun;130(3):469-79.

(77) Pebody RG, Ryan MJ, Wall PG. Outbreaks of campylobacter infection: rare events for a common pathogen. Commun

Dis Rep CDR Rev 1997 Mar 7;7(3):R33-R37.

(78) Alary M, Nadeau D. An outbreak of Campylobacter enteritis associated with a community water supply. Can J Public

Health 1990 Jul;81(4):268-71.

(79) Engberg J, Gerner-Smidt P, Scheutz F, Moller NE, On SL, Molbak K. Water-borne Campylobacter jejuni infection in a

Danish town---a 6-week continuous source outbreak. Clin Microbiol Infect 1998 Jan;4(11):648-56.

(80) Godoy P, Artigues A, Nuin C, Aramburu J, Perez M, Dominguez A, et al. [Outbreak of gastroenteritis caused by

Campylobacter jejuni transmitted through drinking water]. Med Clin (Barc ) 2002 Nov 23;119(18):695-8.

(81) Hanninen ML, Haajanen H, Pummi T, Wermundsen K, Katila ML, Sarkkinen H, et al. Detection and typing of

Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli and analysis of indicator organisms in three waterborne outbreaks in

Finland. Appl Environ Microbiol 2003 Mar;69(3):1391-6.

(82) Jones IG, Roworth M. An outbreak of Escherichia coli O157 and campylobacteriosis associated with contamination

of a drinking water supply. Public Health 1996 Sep;110(5):277-82.

Page 36 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 61: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

(83) Holme R. Drinking water contamination in Walkerton, Ontario: positive resolutions from a tragic event. Water Sci

Technol 2003;47(3):1-6.

(84) Lind L, Sjogren E, Melby K, Kaijser B. DNA fingerprinting and serotyping of Campylobacter jejuni isolates from

epidemic outbreaks. J Clin Microbiol 1996 Apr;34(4):892-6.

(85) Maurer AM, Sturchler D. A waterborne outbreak of small round structured virus, campylobacter and shigella co-

infections in La Neuveville, Switzerland, 1998. Epidemiol Infect 2000 Oct;125(2):325-32.

(86) Melby K, Gondrosen B, Gregusson S, Ribe H, Dahl OP. Waterborne campylobacteriosis in northern Norway. Int J

Food Microbiol 1991 Feb;12(2-3):151-6.

(87) Miettinen IT, Zacheus O, von Bonsdorff CH, Vartiainen T. Waterborne epidemics in Finland in 1998-1999. Water Sci

Technol 2001;43(12):67-71.

(88) Sacks JJ, Lieb S, Baldy LM, Berta S, Patton CM, White MC, et al. Epidemic campylobacteriosis associated with a

community water supply. Am J Public Health 1986 Apr;76(4):424-8.

(89) Miettinen IT, Zacheus O, von Bonsdorff CH, Vartiainen T. Waterborne epidemics in Finland in 1998-1999. Water Sci

Technol 2001;43(12):67-71.

(90) Sacks JJ, Lieb S, Baldy LM, Berta S, Patton CM, White MC, et al. Epidemic campylobacteriosis associated with a

community water supply. Am J Public Health 1986 Apr;76(4):424-8.

(91) Moore J, Caldwell P, Millar B. Molecular detection of Campylobacter spp. in drinking, recreational and

environmental water supplies. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2001 Nov;204(2-3):185-9.

(92) Moore JE, Caldwell PS, Millar BC, Murphy PG. Occurrence of Campylobacter spp. in water in Northern Ireland:

implications for public health. Ulster Med J 2001 Nov;70(2):102-7.

(93) Savill MG, Hudson JA, Ball A, Klena JD, Scholes P, Whyte RJ, et al. Enumeration of Campylobacter in New Zealand

recreational and drinking waters. J Appl Microbiol 2001 Jul;91(1):38-46.

(94) Hernandez J, Fayos A, Alonso JL, Owen RJ. Ribotypes and AP-PCR fingerprints of thermophilic campylobacters from

marine recreational waters. J Appl Bacteriol 1996 Feb;80(2):157-64.

(95) Louis VR, Gillespie IA, O'Brien SJ, Russek-Cohen E, Pearson AD, Colwell RR. Temperature-driven Campylobacter

seasonality in England and Wales. Appl Environ Microbiol 2005 Jan;71(1):85-92.

(96) Koro ME, Anandan S, Quinlan JJ. Microbial quality of food available to populations of differing socioeconomic status.

Am J Prev Med 2010 May;38(5):478-81.

(97) Kovats RS, Edwards SJ, Charron D, Cowden J, D'Souza RM, Ebi KL, et al. Climate variability and campylobacter

infection: an international study. Int J Biometeorol 2005 Mar;49(4):207-14.

(98) Paschke C, Apelt N, Fleischmann E, Perona P, Walentiny C, Loscher T, et al. Controlled study on enteropathogens in

travellers returning from the tropics with and without diarrhoea. Clin Microbiol Infect 2011 Aug;17(8):1194-200.

(99) Ekdahl K, Giesecke J. Travellers returning to Sweden as sentinels for comparative disease incidence in other

European countries, campylobacter and giardia infection as examples. Euro Surveill 2004 Sep;9(9):6-9.

(100) Beecham HJ, III, Lebron CI, Echeverria P. Short report: impact of traveler's diarrhea on United States troops

deployed to Thailand. Am J Trop Med Hyg 1997 Dec;57(6):699-701.

(101) Mattila L, Siitonen A, Kyronseppa H, Simula I, Oksanen P, Stenvik M, et al. Seasonal variation in etiology of travelers'

diarrhea. Finnish-Moroccan Study Group. J Infect Dis 1992 Feb;165(2):385-8.

(102) Pearson AD, Healing TD. The surveillance and control of campylobacter infection. Commun Dis Rep CDR Rev 1992

Nov 6;2(12):R133-R139.

(103) Haberberger RL, Jr., Mikhail IA, Burans JP, Hyams KC, Glenn JC, Diniega BM, et al. Travelers' diarrhea among United

States military personnel during joint American-Egyptian armed forces exercises in Cairo, Egypt. Mil Med 1991

Jan;156(1):27-30.

(104) Black RE. Epidemiology of travelers' diarrhea and relative importance of various pathogens. Rev Infect Dis 1990

Jan;12 Suppl 1:S73-S79.

Page 37 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 62: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

(105) Black RE. Pathogens that cause travelers' diarrhea in Latin America and Africa. Rev Infect Dis 1986 May;8 Suppl

2:S131-S135.

(106) Brasseur D, Casimir G, Goyens P. Campylobacter jejuni and infantile traveller's diarrhoea. Eur J Pediatr 1986

Feb;144(5):517-8.

(107) Echeverria P, Blacklow NR, Sanford LB, Cukor GG. Travelers' diarrhea among American Peace Corps volunteers in

rural Thailand. J Infect Dis 1981 Jun;143(6):767-71.

(108) Kapperud G, Lassen J, Ostroff SM, Aasen S. Clinical features of sporadic Campylobacter infections in Norway. Scand J

Infect Dis 1992;24(6):741-9.

(109) Ekdahl K, Andersson Y. Regional risks and seasonality in travel-associated campylobacteriosis. BMC Infect Dis 2004

Nov 29;4(1):54.

Page 38 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 63: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Supplimentary file for all charts and most data

Page 39 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 64: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Camp sites of infection

Title

1a. Campylobacter isolates from patients with and without meningitis in different age

groups as a percentage of all cases 1989 to 2009.

Age Brain / CSF Not brain

0 to 4 6.3 9.8

5 to 9 3.1 3.3

10 to 14 3.1 2.7

15 to 19 4.7 4.6

20 to 24 7.8 8.7

25 to 29 7.8 9.4

30 to 34 7.8 8.5

35 to 39 15.6 7.7

40 to 44 6.3 7.5

45 to 49 6.3 7.3

50 to 54 4.7 6.8

55 to 59 7.8 6.1

60 to 64 6.3 5.2

65 to 69 7.8 4.2

70 to 74 1.6 3.3

75 to 79 0.0 2.4

80 to 84 0.0 1.5

85 to 89 1.6 0.7

90 to 94 1.6 0.3

95 to 99 0.0 0.1

>99 0.0 0.0

Page 40 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 65: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Pivot data Campylobacter10 with meningitis & death charts

Figure 1. b. Campylobacter isolates from fatal and non-fatal

cases in different age groups as a percentage of all cases

1989 to 2009.

Non fatal cases Fatal cases Non fatal cases Fatal cases

0 to 4 years 93804 4 9.7 4.9

5 to 9 years 31634 1 3.3 1.2

10 to 14 years 26200 0 2.7 0.0

15 to 19 years 44575 1 4.6 1.2

20 to 24 years 84078 3 8.7 3.7

25 to 29 years 90431 6 9.4 7.4

30 to 34 years 81841 3 8.5 3.7

35 to 39 years 74219 3 7.7 3.7

40 to 44 years 71989 3 7.5 3.7

45 to 49 years 69870 1 7.3 1.2

50 to 54 years 65919 5 6.8 6.2

55 to 59 years 58836 5 6.1 6.2

60 to 64 years 50513 6 5.2 7.4

65 to 69 years 40143 6 4.2 7.4

70 to 74 years 31919 2 3.3 2.5

75 to 79 years 22914 10 2.4 12.3

80 to 84 years 14028 8 1.5 9.9

85 to 89 years 6669 10 0.7 12.3

90 to 94 years 2555 2 0.3 2.5

95 to 99 years 825 1 0.1 1.2

>99 years 141 1 0.0 1.2

Page 41 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 66: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter outbreaks (1992-2009)_Gordon Nichols with charts

1c. Campylobacter cases per year from 1989 to 2011 by age (2011 data provisional).

Year 0 to 9 years 10 to 49 years 50 years or moreAge unknown Total

1989 6231 18628 5611 2810 33280

1990 6414 19265 5984 2815 34478

1991 6290 17951 6327 2383 32951

1992 6709 21093 7679 3043 38524

1993 6619 21900 8305 2692 39516

1994 7273 25707 10050 2237 45267

1995 6600 25105 9918 1877 43500

1996 6371 25110 10852 1709 44042

1997 7007 29461 13112 1887 51467

1998 7176 32397 15747 1684 57004

1999 6918 31823 16304 1420 56465

2000 6062 32814 17634 1726 58236

2001 5502 31184 17035 1361 55082

2002 4813 26487 15772 1061 48133

2003 4472 25600 15448 765 46285

2004 4442 24282 15473 347 44544

2005 4559 25555 16316 294 46724

2006 4516 24819 17053 480 46868

2007 5144 26298 20366 181 51989

2008 5237 24488 20121 163 50009

2009 6018 27692 23910 152 57772

2010 6029 29729 26816 114 62688

2011 6057 30353 28059 113 64582

Grand Total 136459 597741 343892 31314 1109406

Page 42 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 67: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Age and year update July 2011 with charts

1d.

Campylobacte

r cases per

year 1989-

2010 as a

percentage of

cases in

different age

groups over 45

years old.

Row Labels 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0 to 4 16.0 15.9 16.2 14.8 14.0 13.1 11.9 11.3 10.6 9.6 9.2 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.4 7.0 6.9

5 to 9 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8

10 to 14 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7

15 to 19 5.7 5.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8

20 to 24 12.6 12.1 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.8 8.0 8.7 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.9

25 to 29 11.7 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.0 11.4 11.4 11.0 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.6

30 to 34 8.7 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.4 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.1 8.0 7.0

35 to 39 7.1 6.9 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.4 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.0 8.1 7.8

40 to 44 7.2 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2

45 to 49 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.6

50 to 54 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.3 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.3

55 to 59 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.9 7.9 8.0

60 to 64 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.5

65 to 69 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9

70 to 74 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1

75 to 79 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9

80 to 84 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8

85 to 89 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9

90 to 94 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Page 43 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 68: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

2007 2008 2009 2010

7.1 7.6 7.4 7.0

2.8 2.9 3.0 2.7

2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2

4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1

7.4 7.3 7.1 7.1

7.5 7.2 7.2 6.9

6.3 6.0 5.8 5.9

7.3 6.7 6.4 6.2

8.0 7.3 7.3 7.3

7.7 7.9 7.6 7.8

7.5 7.5 7.3 7.5

7.6 7.2 7.4 7.4

7.6 7.9 8.1 8.6

5.5 5.6 6.0 6.3

4.4 4.8 5.0 5.1

3.3 3.5 3.8 3.8

2.0 2.2 2.2 2.4

1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

Page 44 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 69: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter 2009 pivot 8 age with charts incl prevalence 2 Nov 2011

Title 1e. Campylobacter cases by age and sex 1989-2009.

Age Male Female

0 12399 9075

1 16296 11685

2 12006 8358

3 7556 5393

4 5518 3907

5 4385 3120

6 3836 2539

7 3616 2334

8 3371 2298

9 3339 2292

10 3472 2106

11 3341 2037

12 3252 1742

13 3218 1623

14 3321 1674

15 3371 1883

16 3807 2473

17 4856 3484

18 5891 4806

19 7029 6272

20 7846 7331

21 8125 7868

22 8317 8295

23 8649 8708

24 8872 9117

25 9041 9195

26 9009 9003

27 9096 8922

28 9203 8738

29 8953 8407

30 9023 8203

31 8620 7876

32 8669 7670

33 8353 7350

34 8077 7307

35 8141 7097

36 8238 6804

37 8090 6603

38 7879 6525

39 7780 6424

40 7939 6668

41 7793 6333

42 7661 6560

43 7782 6311

44 7590 6401

45 7394 6501

46 7495 6382

47 7459 6461

48 7439 6396

49 7089 6302

50 7283 6176

51 7070 6016

52 6904 6096

53 6802 5994

54 6638 5905

55 6260 5843

56 6165 5596

57 6150 5542

58 5894 5401

59 5626 5167

60 5678 5227

61 5333 4938

Page 45 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 70: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

62 5090 4661

63 4770 4496

64 4609 4361

65 4483 4168

66 4202 3951

67 3983 3842

68 3849 3600

69 3579 3549

70 3500 3459

71 3243 3381

72 3025 3128

73 2798 2969

74 2678 2852

75 2535 2635

76 2295 2548

77 2037 2326

78 1917 2205

79 1722 2011

80 1535 1903

81 1424 1672

82 1211 1470

83 989 1344

84 902 1248

85 728 1070

86 632 884

87 549 739

88 395 633

89 292 534

90 246 441

91 193 385

92 168 325

93 145 274

94 92 230

95 115 185

96 76 138

97 53 83

98 24 43

99 45 49

100 70 64

Page 46 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 71: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter April 2010 charts 15 seasonality

Title 1f. Campylobacter cases by age as a percentage of all cases for London and all other areas 1898-2009.

Age London All other regions

0 3.2 2.2

1 3.7 2.9

2 2.5 2.1

3 1.6 1.3

4 1.3 1.0

5 1.0 0.8

6 0.8 0.7

7 0.8 0.6

8 0.7 0.6

9 0.7 0.6

10 0.8 0.6

11 0.6 0.6

12 0.6 0.5

13 0.6 0.5

14 0.6 0.5

15 0.6 0.6

16 0.7 0.7

17 0.9 0.9

18 1.0 1.1

19 1.3 1.4

20 1.6 1.6

21 1.7 1.7

22 2.1 1.7

23 2.3 1.8

24 2.7 1.8

25 2.8 1.8

26 2.9 1.8

27 2.9 1.8

28 2.8 1.8

29 2.6 1.8

30 2.4 1.8

31 2.2 1.7

32 2.1 1.7

33 1.8 1.6

34 1.8 1.6

35 1.6 1.6

36 1.6 1.6

37 1.5 1.5

38 1.4 1.5

39 1.4 1.5

40 1.4 1.6

41 1.2 1.5

42 1.3 1.5

43 1.2 1.5

44 1.2 1.5

45 1.0 1.5

46 1.1 1.5

47 1.1 1.5

48 1.1 1.5

49 1.0 1.4

50 1.0 1.5

51 1.0 1.4

52 0.9 1.4

53 1.0 1.4

54 0.9 1.4

55 0.9 1.3

56 1.0 1.3

57 0.8 1.3

58 0.9 1.2

59 0.8 1.2

60 0.8 1.2

61 0.7 1.1

Page 47 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 72: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

62 0.7 1.1

63 0.6 1.0

64 0.7 1.0

65 0.6 0.9

66 0.6 0.9

67 0.6 0.8

68 0.6 0.8

69 0.5 0.8

70 0.6 0.8

71 0.5 0.7

72 0.5 0.7

73 0.5 0.6

74 0.4 0.6

75 0.4 0.6

76 0.4 0.5

77 0.4 0.5

78 0.4 0.4

79 0.3 0.4

80 0.3 0.4

81 0.3 0.3

82 0.2 0.3

83 0.2 0.3

84 0.2 0.2

85 0.2 0.2

86 0.1 0.2

87 0.1 0.1

88 0.1 0.1

89 0.1 0.1

90 0.1 0.1

91 0.1 0.1

92 0.0 0.1

93 0.0 0.0

94 0.0 0.0

95 0.0 0.0

96 0.0 0.0

97 0.0 0.0

98 0.0 0.0

99 0.0 0.0

100 0.0 0.0

101 0.0 0.0

102 0.0 0.0

103 0.0 0.0

104 0.0 0.0

106 0.0 0.0

107 0.0 0.0

108 0.0 0.0

109 0.0 0.0

111 0.0 0.0

115 0.0 0.0

116 0.0 0.0

Page 48 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 73: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter 2009 pivot 8 age with charts incl prevalence 2 Nov 2011

Title 1g. Campylobacter cases in people who had recently returned from abroad and all other cases 1989-2009.

Age Travel Other

0 0.9 2.4

1 1.5 3.1

2 1.1 2.2

3 0.8 1.4

4 0.6 1.0

5 0.6 0.8

6 0.6 0.7

7 0.5 0.6

8 0.5 0.6

9 0.5 0.6

10 0.6 0.6

11 0.5 0.6

12 0.5 0.5

13 0.5 0.5

14 0.5 0.5

15 0.5 0.6

16 0.7 0.7

17 0.9 0.9

18 1.2 1.1

19 1.9 1.4

20 2.0 1.6

21 2.3 1.7

22 2.5 1.7

23 2.8 1.8

24 2.8 1.9

25 3.0 1.9

26 2.6 1.9

27 2.5 1.9

28 2.8 1.9

29 2.3 1.8

30 2.4 1.8

31 2.2 1.7

32 2.0 1.7

33 1.9 1.6

34 1.7 1.6

35 1.8 1.6

36 1.6 1.6

37 1.6 1.5

38 1.5 1.5

39 1.5 1.5

40 1.6 1.5

41 1.6 1.5

42 1.5 1.5

43 1.6 1.5

44 1.7 1.5

45 1.7 1.5

46 1.7 1.4

47 1.9 1.4

48 1.6 1.4

49 1.6 1.4

50 1.6 1.4

51 1.5 1.4

52 1.6 1.4

53 1.4 1.3

54 1.5 1.3

55 1.3 1.3

56 1.3 1.2

57 1.3 1.2

58 1.3 1.2

59 1.1 1.1

60 1.1 1.1

61 1.0 1.1

Page 49 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 74: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

62 0.9 1.0

63 0.8 1.0

64 0.9 0.9

65 0.7 0.9

66 0.7 0.9

67 0.6 0.8

68 0.5 0.8

69 0.5 0.8

70 0.5 0.7

71 0.4 0.7

72 0.3 0.7

73 0.3 0.6

74 0.3 0.6

75 0.2 0.6

76 0.2 0.5

77 0.1 0.5

78 0.1 0.4

79 0.1 0.4

80 0.1 0.4

81 0.1 0.3

82 0.0 0.3

83 0.0 0.3

84 0.0 0.2

85 0.0 0.2

86 0.0 0.2

87 0.0 0.1

88 0.0 0.1

89 0.0 0.1

90 0.0 0.1

91 0.0 0.1

92 0.0 0.1

93 0.0 0.0

94 0.0 0.0

95 0.0 0.0

96 0.0 0.0

97 0.0 0.0

98 0.0 0.0

99 0.0 0.0

100 0.0 0.0

Page 50 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 75: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Salmonella and Campylobacter by age

Title 1h. Age distribution of Salmonella and Campylobacter .

Age Campylobacter Salmonella

0 2.3 5.6

1 3.0 4.5

2 2.1 3.4

3 1.4 2.6

4 1.0 2.1

5 0.8 1.7

6 0.7 1.4

7 0.6 1.3

8 0.6 1.1

9 0.6 1.1

10 0.6 1.1

11 0.6 1.0

12 0.5 0.9

13 0.5 0.8

14 0.5 0.8

15 0.6 0.7

16 0.7 0.8

17 0.9 0.9

18 1.1 1.1

19 1.4 1.3

20 1.6 1.5

21 1.7 1.6

22 1.8 1.6

23 1.8 1.7

24 1.9 1.7

25 1.9 1.7

26 1.9 1.8

27 1.9 1.8

28 1.9 1.7

29 1.8 1.6

30 1.8 1.7

31 1.7 1.5

32 1.7 1.5

33 1.6 1.4

34 1.6 1.4

35 1.6 1.4

36 1.6 1.3

37 1.5 1.3

38 1.5 1.3

39 1.5 1.3

40 1.5 1.3

41 1.5 1.3

42 1.5 1.3

43 1.5 1.2

44 1.5 1.2

45 1.5 1.3

46 1.5 1.2

47 1.5 1.2

48 1.5 1.2

49 1.4 1.1

50 1.4 1.2

51 1.4 1.1

52 1.4 1.1

53 1.4 1.0

54 1.3 1.0

55 1.3 0.9

56 1.2 0.9

57 1.2 0.9

58 1.2 0.8

59 1.1 0.8

60 1.2 0.8

61 1.1 0.7

Page 51 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 76: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

62 1.0 0.7

63 1.0 0.7

64 0.9 0.6

65 0.9 0.6

66 0.9 0.6

67 0.8 0.6

68 0.8 0.6

69 0.8 0.5

70 0.7 0.6

71 0.7 0.5

72 0.7 0.5

73 0.6 0.4

74 0.6 0.4

75 0.5 0.4

76 0.5 0.4

77 0.5 0.3

78 0.4 0.3

79 0.4 0.3

80 0.4 0.3

81 0.3 0.3

82 0.3 0.3

83 0.2 0.2

84 0.2 0.2

85 0.2 0.2

86 0.2 0.2

87 0.1 0.1

88 0.1 0.1

89 0.1 0.1

90 0.1 0.1

91 0.1 0.1

92 0.1 0.1

93 0.0 0.1

94 0.0 0.1

95 0.0 0.1

96 0.0 0.0

97 0.0 0.0

98 0.0 0.0

99 0.0 0.0

100 0.0 0.0

101 0.0 0.0

102 0.0 0.0

103 0.0 0.0

104 0.0 0.0

106 0.0 0.0

107 0.0 0.0

108 0.0 0.0

109 0.0 0.0

110 0.0 0.0

111 0.0 0.0

115 0.0 0.0

116 0.0 0.0

116 0.0 0.0

Page 52 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 77: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter by year September 2010 with charts

Title 1i. Change in age distribution over four five year time periods.

Row Labels 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009

0-4 years 26035 25318 18625 18194

5-9 years 7290 8761 6668 7280

10-14 years 5321 6945 6451 6303

15-19 years 8562 11373 11319 11137

20-24 years 19372 21006 20279 18824

25-29 years 20195 25781 21387 18709

30-34 years 16171 23574 22138 16600

35-39 years 12430 19639 21049 18187

40-44 years 12379 17511 19391 19632

45-49 years 11486 18067 18352 19460

50-54 years 8708 16973 19392 18574

55-59 years 7639 12583 17315 19177

60-64 years 6449 10817 12926 18364

65-69 years 5171 8948 10919 13573

70-74 years 4126 6900 8508 11237

75-79 years 2865 4754 6009 8300

80-84 years 1905 2869 3714 4963

85-89 years 910 1186 1653 2578

90-94 years 490 499 668 806

95-99 years 72 396 161 169

100+ years 10 8 97 25

Unknown 13150 8570 5258 1270

Grand Total 190736 252478 252279 253362

Page 53 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 78: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Campylobacter

case

s in

20

08

Age (years old)

Male

Female

Page 54 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 79: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter 2009 pivot 8 age with charts incl prevalence 2 Nov 2011

Title 1k. population age and sex distribution in 2008.

2008

COUNTRY ENGLAND AND WALES

ALL AGES Male Female Total

ALL AGES 26780266 27659388 54439654

0 360198 342865 703063

1 345332 328413 673745

2 334209 318797 653006

3 326727 311824 638551

4 322292 306829 629121

5 311858 295415 607273

6 301671 288125 589796

7 300923 289107 590030

8 309250 295016 604266

9 317531 303392 620923

10 322690 309322 632012

11 331917 317083 649000

12 329909 315082 644991

13 332712 315906 648618

14 340478 322803 663281

15 346753 328187 674940

16 360404 341016 701420

17 370605 347601 718206

18 367889 347658 715547

19 370372 353458 723830

20 380789 360611 741400

21 379729 357503 737232

22 379627 366928 746555

23 391853 372583 764436

24 386535 364532 751067

25 376819 353182 730001

26 362966 354125 717091

27 372968 362618 735586

28 371385 362059 733444

29 353224 348077 701301

30 336647 333844 670491

31 331698 328135 659833

32 339787 336245 676032

33 348796 346933 695729

34 355830 355691 711521

35 371214 374185 745399

36 387592 396438 784030

37 398154 405993 804147

38 397009 400312 797321

39 406166 412090 818256

40 411219 412588 823807

41 420890 421845 842735

42 417940 422537 840477

43 417751 424018 841769

44 411006 419508 830514

45 401289 412812 814101

46 389415 401165 790580

47 380444 389810 770254

48 365375 373576 738951

49 359155 365086 724241

50 354669 359131 713800

51 339873 345957 685830

52 326386 333792 660178

53 317853 325228 643081

54 318406 326974 645380

55 312968 320928 633896

56 310021 319212 629233

57 310611 320531 631142

58 318579 330437 649016

Page 55 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 80: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

59 328658 339443 668101

60 352678 365020 717698

61 366851 381698 748549

62 295660 310854 606514

63 287255 302581 589836

64 279063 293771 572834

65 264679 281696 546375

66 236788 253354 490142

67 220090 236806 456896

68 226649 245652 472301

69 224493 244462 468955

70 218838 240272 459110

71 210445 233380 443825

72 200730 225732 426462

73 190504 216943 407447

74 177159 207427 384586

75 171318 204357 375675

76 165642 202298 367940

77 158748 200680 359428

78 147667 193213 340880

79 135652 182386 318038

80 123765 170696 294461

81 115571 165178 280749

82 105169 157442 262611

83 93735 147505 241240

84 82623 138072 220695

85 73332 128799 202131

86 66479 123525 190004

87 60385 118212 178597

88 48553 99832 148385

89 35987 73938 109925

90 377788

90+ 98742 279046

Page 56 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 81: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter 2009 pivot 8 age with charts incl prevalence 2 Nov 2011

Title 1l. Campylobacter cases per 100,000 in 2008 by age and sex.

England & Wales

Mid 2008

Age Male Female

0 138.8 114.6

1 196.9 142.8

2 149.3 97.2

3 96.1 67.7

4 77.6 56.4

5 67.0 47.4

6 55.7 33.7

7 56.8 41.9

8 56.3 42.4

9 50.4 35.3

10 48.7 30.1

11 53.9 29.6

12 49.7 29.2

13 45.4 22.2

14 45.5 17.7

15 48.7 24.1

16 51.9 36.7

17 71.0 53.5

18 81.8 65.9

19 89.6 86.0

20 96.1 104.3

21 97.7 97.3

22 99.3 98.4

23 94.4 100.1

24 91.6 97.1

25 88.4 108.7

26 100.8 101.9

27 111.5 102.3

28 91.3 100.3

29 97.1 100.8

30 95.6 90.5

31 83.2 90.2

32 90.6 93.7

33 79.7 81.3

34 94.7 88.6

35 87.0 83.9

36 95.5 72.9

37 95.9 78.1

38 90.7 84.2

39 91.1 79.1

40 95.6 72.7

41 90.5 78.9

42 98.8 88.5

43 97.4 77.4

44 94.9 87.7

45 103.2 92.8

46 109.7 99.0

47 110.9 97.7

48 112.5 99.6

49 114.2 103.3

50 130.3 96.6

51 115.9 89.6

52 129.9 107.9

53 127.4 104.8

54 135.4 100.9

55 123.0 107.8

56 110.0 112.5

57 128.5 107.0

58 124.0 99.3

59 125.4 101.3

Page 57 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 82: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

60 128.4 114.0

61 143.4 108.7

62 128.9 108.4

63 137.2 111.0

64 141.9 111.3

65 143.6 105.1

66 116.6 101.4

67 126.3 95.4

68 135.0 108.7

69 123.8 98.6

70 132.5 109.0

71 129.7 108.8

72 124.5 97.0

73 127.6 102.3

74 124.7 96.9

75 135.4 90.0

76 119.5 87.5

77 120.9 90.2

78 119.9 86.4

79 106.2 80.6

80 113.1 84.4

81 110.8 81.7

82 97.9 71.1

83 85.3 67.1

84 94.4 70.3

85 100.9 67.5

86 115.8 63.1

87 106.0 51.6

88 111.2 54.1

89 61.1 44.6

Page 58 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 83: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter 2009 pivot 8 age with charts incl prevalence 2 Nov 2011

Title 1m. Campylobacter cases per one year age group as a percentage of all cases per year 1989 to 2009.

Row Labels 0 years old1 YEAR OLD2 YEARS OLD3 YEARS OLD4 YEARS OLD5 YEARS OLD6 YEARS OLD7 YEARS OLD8 YEARS OLD9 YEARS OLD10 YEARS OLD11 YEARS OLD12 YEARS OLD13 YEARS OLD14 YEARS OLD15 YEARS OLD16 YEARS OLD17 YEARS OLD

198901-198906 4.5 5.9 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1

198907-198912 4.2 4.9 3.7 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9

198913-198918 4.2 5.1 4.3 2.1 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7

198919-198924 3.5 7.0 4.7 3.0 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8

198925-198930 3.6 4.7 3.2 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9

198931-198936 3.6 3.7 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2

198937-198942 4.3 4.7 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0

198943-198948 5.6 5.0 3.0 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1

198949-198954 4.0 4.6 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0

198997-199002 6.5 3.7 2.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.1

199003-199008 4.0 4.6 3.5 2.2 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.2

199009-199014 3.6 4.5 3.3 2.4 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1

199015-199020 3.4 5.5 4.0 3.2 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8

199021-199026 3.5 5.7 4.7 3.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.2

199027-199032 3.6 4.4 3.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2

199033-199038 3.6 4.3 2.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3

199039-199044 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0

199045-199050 5.3 4.8 3.9 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8

199051-199056 4.5 5.3 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0

199099-199104 5.1 5.2 3.8 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9

199105-199110 4.5 5.9 4.4 2.6 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7

199111-199116 3.6 5.2 3.7 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0

199117-199122 3.5 5.4 4.4 3.0 2.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.0

199123-199128 3.1 4.7 4.8 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6

199129-199134 3.3 4.5 3.4 2.0 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1

199135-199140 3.6 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.1

199141-199146 4.9 4.6 3.0 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6

199147-199152 4.4 4.2 3.5 2.2 1.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6

199201-199206 4.9 5.6 3.4 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.7

199207-199212 3.9 5.6 3.8 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5

199213-199218 2.9 4.5 3.4 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9

199219-199224 2.6 5.5 4.8 3.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9

199225-199230 3.4 4.3 3.3 2.1 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1

199231-199236 3.1 3.8 3.1 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2

199237-199242 2.9 3.5 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1

199243-199248 3.5 4.0 3.0 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7

199249-199254 4.8 3.9 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6

199297-199302 2.7 3.6 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5

199303-199308 3.5 4.6 2.9 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7

199309-199314 4.2 4.0 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9

199315-199320 3.2 5.0 4.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0

199321-199326 3.4 5.1 4.2 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6

199327-199332 2.5 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0

199333-199338 3.0 3.2 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0

199339-199344 3.8 3.5 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5

199345-199350 4.7 4.2 3.3 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5

199351-199356 2.6 3.6 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9

199399-199404 4.8 4.4 2.8 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8

199405-199410 3.4 4.2 3.4 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7

199411-199416 3.1 3.9 2.8 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.7

199417-199422 2.5 4.8 4.3 2.8 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5

199423-199428 2.9 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

199429-199434 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1

199435-199440 2.9 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9

199441-199446 3.4 3.3 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7

199447-199452 3.1 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8

199501-199506 3.5 3.9 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8

199507-199512 3.6 3.9 2.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6

199513-199518 2.7 3.7 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7

199519-199524 2.9 4.8 3.7 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9

199525-199530 2.3 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9

199531-199536 2.6 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1

Page 59 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 84: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

199537-199542 2.5 3.2 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.0

199543-199548 3.2 3.4 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7

199549-199554 3.8 4.2 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0

199597-199602 2.9 3.5 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4

199603-199608 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7

199609-199614 3.9 3.9 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7

199615-199620 2.9 4.4 2.9 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6

199621-199626 2.0 3.9 3.0 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8

199627-199632 2.3 3.4 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0

199633-199638 2.4 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1

199639-199644 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8

199645-199650 2.5 3.3 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1

199651-199656 2.7 3.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3

199699-199704 3.2 3.0 3.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8

199705-199710 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9

199711-199716 2.1 3.0 2.7 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1

199717-199722 2.7 4.4 2.9 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8

199723-199728 2.3 3.4 2.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8

199729-199734 2.2 2.7 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.2

199735-199740 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.4

199741-199746 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7

199747-199752 3.0 3.1 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9

199801-199806 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9

199807-199812 2.3 3.0 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1

199813-199818 2.2 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.0

199819-199824 2.3 3.9 2.9 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0

199825-199830 2.0 3.0 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9

199831-199836 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.3

199837-199842 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9

199843-199848 2.4 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8

199849-199854 2.8 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0

199897-199902 2.2 2.9 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.0

199903-199908 2.7 3.2 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8

199909-199914 2.2 3.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0

199915-199920 1.8 3.4 2.8 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9

199921-199926 1.9 3.6 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8

199927-199932 1.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0

199933-199938 1.9 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.3

199939-199944 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8

199945-199950 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9

199951-199956 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0

199999-200004 2.4 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7

200005-200010 2.3 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8

200011-200016 2.2 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5

200017-200022 2.0 3.1 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8

200023-200028 1.7 2.6 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9

200029-200034 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0

200035-200040 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0

200041-200046 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8

200047-200052 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7

200101-200106 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9

200107-200112 2.0 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9

200113-200118 2.1 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2

200119-200124 1.6 3.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7

200125-200130 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8

200131-200136 1.5 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.3

200137-200142 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9

200143-200148 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7

200149-200154 2.7 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7

200197-200202 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.1

200203-200208 2.6 2.6 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8

200209-200214 2.3 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

200215-200220 1.8 2.8 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7

200221-200226 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8

200227-200232 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1

200233-200238 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.3

200239-200244 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7

Page 60 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 85: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

200245-200250 1.9 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8

200251-200256 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6

200299-200304 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9

200305-200310 2.5 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5

200311-200316 2.1 2.6 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8

200317-200322 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7

200323-200328 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9

200329-200334 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1

200335-200340 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8

200341-200346 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7

200347-200352 2.5 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7

200401-200406 2.3 2.1 1.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7

200407-200412 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0

200413-200418 2.0 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7

200419-200424 1.9 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9

200425-200430 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8

200431-200436 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2

200437-200442 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8

200443-200448 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8

200449-200454 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8

200497-200502 1.6 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.3

200503-200508 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7

200509-200514 1.9 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0

200515-200520 1.5 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0

200521-200526 1.4 2.6 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9

200527-200532 1.3 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9

200533-200538 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9

200539-200544 1.7 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0

200545-200550 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8

200551-200556 2.0 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

200599-200604 1.9 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7

200605-200610 1.8 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1

200611-200616 2.0 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8

200617-200622 1.7 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8

200623-200628 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8

200629-200634 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.3

200635-200640 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

200641-200646 2.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7

200647-200652 1.9 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8

200701-200706 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7

200707-200712 2.1 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9

200713-200718 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8

200719-200724 1.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

200725-200730 1.3 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

200731-200736 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1

200737-200742 1.4 2.4 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6

200743-200748 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7

200749-200754 1.9 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.3

200797-200802 1.7 2.3 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.9

200803-200808 2.8 2.7 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6

200809-200814 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9

200815-200820 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0

200821-200826 1.6 2.7 2.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8

200827-200832 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2

200833-200838 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0

200839-200844 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8

200845-200850 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7

200851-200856 2.1 3.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6

200899-200904 1.9 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.9

200905-200910 1.5 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2

200911-200916 1.8 2.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7

200917-200922 1.5 2.9 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7

200923-200928 1.3 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9

200929-200934 1.5 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0

200935-200940 1.7 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9

200941-200946 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8

200947-200952 2.2 1.8 2.5 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4

Page 61 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 86: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

18 YEARS OLD19 YEARS OLD20 YEARS OLD21 YEARS OLD22 YEARS OLD23 YEARS OLD24 YEARS OLD25 YEARS OLD26 YEARS OLD27 YEARS OLD28 YEARS OLD29 YEARS OLD30 YEARS OLD31 YEARS OLD32 YEARS OLD33 YEARS OLD34 YEARS OLD35 YEARS OLD36 YEARS OLD37 YEARS OLD38 YEARS OLD

1.2 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.2 3.1 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3

1.5 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 3.5 2.3 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.8

1.5 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5

1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.5

1.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4

1.9 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5

1.4 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.4 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3

1.5 2.1 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4

1.5 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 3.9 2.7 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.7 2.7 1.7 2.2 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.8

1.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.5 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.7

1.1 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5

1.1 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.3

1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0

1.6 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1

1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.2

1.8 1.9 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.2

1.4 1.8 2.1 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.2

1.0 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3

1.2 1.0 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.5 2.7 2.2 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.7 0.7

1.1 1.3 2.1 1.7 2.2 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.5 0.7 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.7

1.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.4 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.8

1.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.5 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1

1.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2

1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.6 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2

1.6 1.9 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.2

1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.2

1.2 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.6 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4

1.1 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.5

1.0 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 0.9 1.4

0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1

1.0 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.8

1.0 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3

1.1 1.7 1.5 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4

1.6 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4

1.1 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.5

1.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5

0.7 1.5 1.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.0

0.7 2.0 1.9 3.0 2.4 2.9 2.5 2.6 1.9 3.1 2.6 2.9 1.5 3.1 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3

0.9 1.4 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.9 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.1

1.0 1.6 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.1

1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7

0.8 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.2

1.1 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5

1.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3

1.2 1.5 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5

0.8 1.1 1.1 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.3

1.1 2.4 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.0 3.9 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.4 1.1

1.1 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.5 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2

1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.5

0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.2 2.0

1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.3

1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2

1.3 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.4

1.1 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6

0.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3

1.1 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.8 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5

0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.6

1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.0

0.9 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5

0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3

1.1 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5

1.2 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.9

Page 62 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 87: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

0.9 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.3

0.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.9

0.9 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3

1.2 0.8 2.2 1.7 2.7 2.0 3.4 2.8 2.4 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.7 1.2 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.2

0.9 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5

1.0 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.9

1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.8 1.3

0.8 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4

1.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4

1.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5

1.2 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3

0.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.7 1.5 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7

1.3 2.3 1.7 1.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 2.2

0.8 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.6 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7

1.4 1.2 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6

1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5

1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4

1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.4 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.1

1.1 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6

1.0 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.4

1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.5

1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6

1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.2

1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.4

1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4

1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.6

1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7

1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6

1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7

1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.5

1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.5 1.7 1.3 2.0 2.7 1.6 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.5

1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.6

1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.8

1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.6

1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6

1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.7

1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.5

1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7

1.3 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.7

0.4 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.6

1.2 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.5

1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.2 1.4

0.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0

1.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6

1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.8

1.3 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7

1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.6

1.2 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7

1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.5

1.3 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.4

1.0 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.5

0.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8

0.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7

1.2 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.9 2.0

1.1 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.5

1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.9

1.4 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.7

1.0 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.3 2.1

1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.4

1.1 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.5

1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5

1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8

1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7

0.9 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.7

Page 63 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 88: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.6

0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.8 0.9 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.4 1.6 2.1

0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.8

0.9 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.5 1.6

0.8 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.0

1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.6

1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5

1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

1.0 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8

1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5

1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.9

1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5

1.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.8

0.9 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.6

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6

1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.5

1.0 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.4

0.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.1

1.3 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.8

0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2 2.6 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.2 2.2

1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8

0.8 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5

1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6

0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6

1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.7

1.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5

1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.9

1.0 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5

0.8 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.5

1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5

1.3 0.9 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.6

1.3 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7

1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7

1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7

1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6

1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.4

1.0 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2

1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.8

1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.2

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2

1.1 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4

1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4

1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5

1.3 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5

0.9 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6

1.0 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5

0.9 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.8

1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.4 1.6

0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.7

0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.1

1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5

1.0 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2

1.1 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4

1.3 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3

0.9 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3

1.1 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.6

0.8 1.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.7

1.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.3

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4

1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.1

0.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5

0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6

1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3

1.0 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3

0.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2

1.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.0 1.4

Page 64 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 89: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

39 YEARS OLD40 YEARS OLD41 YEARS OLD42 YEARS OLD43 YEARS OLD44 YEARS OLD45 YEARS OLD46 YEARS OLD47 YEARS OLD48 YEARS OLD49 YEARS OLD50 YEARS OLD51 YEARS OLD52 YEARS OLD53 YEARS OLD54 YEARS OLD55 YEARS OLD56 YEARS OLD57 YEARS OLD58 YEARS OLD59 YEARS OLD

1.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.8

1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8

1.4 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7

1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7

1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8

1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8

1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1

1.5 1.6 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.6 1.5

0.4 1.8 1.8 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.1

1.3 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7

1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.6 0.5 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6

1.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4

1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9

1.2 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1

1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8

1.3 1.3 2.2 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.7

1.3 1.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.1

0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.3

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5

1.1 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.7

1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9

1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.9

1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.8

1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0

1.1 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.7

1.2 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7

1.3 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 2.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7

1.0 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6

1.4 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7

1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8

1.3 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8

0.9 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.5

1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.0

1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1

1.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5

1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8

1.4 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9

1.5 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.6

1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8

1.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9

2.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.5 2.3 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6

1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.6

1.1 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0

1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0

1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7

1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9

1.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8

1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7

1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0

1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.0

1.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

1.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.8

1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.8

1.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7

1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9

1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9

Page 65 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 90: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9

1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.5 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0

1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.8

0.7 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.7 1.2

1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9

1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8

1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1

1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8

1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1

1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9

1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9

1.7 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6

1.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7

1.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.7

1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0

1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8

1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

1.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0

1.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1

1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8

1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9

1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8

1.5 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0

1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0

1.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9

1.8 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8

1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.2

1.6 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.9

1.5 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.1 2.0 1.4 2.3 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0

1.6 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.1

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0

1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1

1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8

1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.6 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0

1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7

1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.0

2.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1

1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.6 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.9 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.1

1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.2

1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2

1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1

1.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8

1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0

1.6 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0

1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.0

1.5 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1

1.4 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1

1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.8

1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0

1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0

1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1

1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9

1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.3

1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.2

1.2 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.5

2.1 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0

1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.8

1.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2

1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.3

1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2

1.9 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0

1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.6

Page 66 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 91: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5

1.8 1.6 1.4 2.6 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 2.1 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.6 0.8

1.1 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.2

1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.4 0.9

1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.2

1.4 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.3

1.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3

2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.3

1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5

1.8 1.3 2.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.3 2.0 1.3 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6

1.8 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.2

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.4

1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.4

1.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.2

1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.1

1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.5

1.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.5

1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.1

1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.3 1.5 1.5

1.2 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.3 1.1

1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.2

1.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.4

1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.0

1.5 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3

1.7 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2

1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.4

1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.4

1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6

1.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.5

2.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.0

1.7 1.7 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5

1.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.8 1.5 2.0

1.1 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0

1.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.5

1.9 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6

1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.0

1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.2

1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.8

1.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.6

1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.5

1.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.1

1.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4

1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5

1.6 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.9

1.8 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.7

1.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6

1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.6

1.0 1.6 1.1 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.3 2.0

1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.8 2.5 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.6 2.5 1.4 2.1 1.0 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.2

1.5 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6

1.8 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.6

1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1

1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4

1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7

1.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5

1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.7

1.2 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.5

1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.5 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.1 2.1 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.9

1.5 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.8

1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.8

1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5

1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7

0.9 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6

1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3

1.4 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5

2.2 0.7 1.4 0.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 2.2 0.7 2.9 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.4 2.5 2.5 0.4 1.1 1.4 2.9 0.4

Page 67 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 92: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

60 YEARS OLD61 YEARS OLD62 YEARS OLD63 YEARS OLD64 YEARS OLD65 YEARS OLD66 YEARS OLD67 YEARS OLD68 YEARS OLD69 YEARS OLD70 YEARS OLD71 YEARS OLD72 YEARS OLD73 YEARS OLD74 YEARS OLD75 YEARS OLD76 YEARS OLD77 YEARS OLD78 YEARS OLD79 YEARS OLD80 YEARS OLD

0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5

0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2

0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1

0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1

0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.6 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0

0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2

0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2

0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3

0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

1.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2

1.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3

0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6

0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3

0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3

0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3

1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4

0.6 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3

0.8 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3

0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3

0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

0.9 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3

0.6 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5

0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3

0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4

0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2

0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2

0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4

0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1

0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4

0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4

1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4

0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3

0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3

0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2

0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2

1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.9 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3

1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3

0.7 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3

0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

1.0 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2

Page 68 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 93: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3

0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3

1.0 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5

1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2

0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3

1.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3

0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4

0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3

1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.7

1.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3

0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5

0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2

1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2

1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4

1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4

0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2

1.1 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

1.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2

1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2

1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2

1.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3

0.8 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3

0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2

1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3

0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3

0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3

1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3

1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1

0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4

1.0 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3

0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4

1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4

0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4

1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3

1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4

0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4

1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4

1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.4

1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3

1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4

0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5

0.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.8

0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1

1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5

1.2 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6

1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4

1.2 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4

1.4 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

Page 69 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 94: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5

0.8 1.7 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3

1.3 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4

1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3

1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4

1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4

1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4

1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5

1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4

1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4

1.6 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5

1.2 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4

1.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4

1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4

1.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3

1.8 1.7 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4

1.7 1.3 1.6 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4

1.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

1.3 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3

1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3

1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3

1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3

1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4

1.6 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3

1.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

1.4 2.3 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.3

0.8 1.4 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7

1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3

1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3

1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4

1.4 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

1.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6

1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7

1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3

1.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4

1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4

2.0 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6

2.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4

1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5

2.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5

2.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5

2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.7

1.6 1.9 0.9 2.2 1.6 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9

1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5

2.1 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6

1.7 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4

1.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5

1.9 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4

1.7 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7

1.6 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6

1.4 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.5 1.0

1.6 1.8 1.7 0.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5

1.8 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7

1.8 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4

1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6

1.5 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4

1.7 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6

1.4 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5

1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

1.4 2.5 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.1

Page 70 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 95: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

81 YEARS OLD82 YEARS OLD83 YEARS OLD84 YEARS OLD85 YEARS OLD86 YEARS OLD87 YEARS OLD88 YEARS OLD89 YEARS OLD90 YEARS OLD91 YEARS OLD92 YEARS OLD93 YEARS OLD94 YEARS OLD95 YEARS OLD96 YEARS OLD97 YEARS OLD98 YEARS OLD99 YEARS OLD>99

0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0

0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Page 71 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 96: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Page 72 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 97: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1

0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

0.9 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Page 73 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 98: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File 2008_Pop_estimates_NHS_regions Campylobacter with charts

Title 1n. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000 per year between 1989 and 2009 by age and sex.

Prevalence females

Row Labels 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0 145 152 132 131 155 157 164 150 163 156 146 147 151 121 112 112 92

1 196 184 185 195 188 204 197 184 204 203 201 171 162 142 142 126 142

2 131 145 144 149 137 166 126 123 138 145 131 135 114 101 107 97 94

3 77 99 86 97 89 93 93 85 105 96 91 78 67 67 59 56 70

4 59 60 62 66 65 75 57 67 64 69 69 64 51 46 36 46 41

5 39 47 43 52 46 53 51 52 53 55 60 47 45 34 35 35 39

6 32 31 40 36 42 39 41 37 43 48 46 43 39 29 27 27 30

7 29 33 29 40 33 40 32 36 34 40 41 33 37 28 26 28 32

8 31 29 25 29 31 34 38 37 34 41 43 31 34 24 32 31 28

9 29 29 29 30 30 35 37 31 40 40 38 43 31 27 31 26 32

10 32 26 27 34 26 30 32 23 36 35 41 39 33 25 26 29 24

11 26 27 26 28 32 24 32 31 32 33 42 36 38 25 27 25 30

12 22 23 18 26 23 24 26 22 31 28 32 37 30 23 23 18 25

13 18 25 18 22 23 26 26 20 29 31 24 30 29 25 22 20 26

14 21 17 19 17 26 26 29 27 28 31 33 33 23 24 23 25 23

15 15 23 20 26 26 28 26 27 31 41 35 29 32 27 29 27 29

16 26 32 22 30 36 36 41 31 52 45 42 40 37 38 38 29 38

17 33 40 34 47 44 51 51 48 59 73 66 61 67 57 44 50 49

18 58 60 47 52 57 67 63 70 78 100 90 106 85 71 63 70 68

19 68 68 61 80 88 95 89 95 102 107 101 120 128 102 90 91 91

20 90 92 76 88 90 98 96 96 126 142 138 134 140 100 97 93 101

21 102 96 86 91 105 111 102 102 122 147 137 144 144 126 110 107 110

22 88 99 87 105 103 116 116 118 138 136 131 142 164 124 107 106 110

23 96 105 96 101 111 131 126 123 130 142 142 141 150 128 127 108 102

24 98 94 99 107 113 124 132 115 134 154 141 155 150 127 124 115 116

25 94 95 89 100 103 120 128 123 139 146 143 151 138 121 123 123 118

26 89 86 89 91 90 117 118 120 136 160 150 157 127 123 109 105 121

27 79 83 84 96 98 126 123 111 126 150 142 136 144 122 103 102 115

28 77 79 75 100 93 118 114 102 127 134 136 149 135 118 104 102 100

29 75 84 76 85 84 107 98 100 118 123 140 140 139 111 113 103 96

30 80 81 71 79 91 106 103 99 123 130 114 121 128 110 98 92 108

31 76 71 69 81 76 96 98 93 99 119 131 128 117 103 100 88 100

32 77 72 60 71 76 89 92 90 103 116 117 129 118 95 98 89 104

33 60 65 63 66 77 93 82 88 101 118 110 125 113 90 93 89 92

34 66 63 57 69 85 84 84 80 86 110 106 120 117 99 90 86 88

35 54 56 51 73 68 77 86 82 89 113 108 113 110 97 92 85 99

36 57 65 48 64 69 77 87 74 96 108 98 103 98 94 92 87 82

37 52 56 54 66 68 76 79 68 88 101 95 112 105 83 81 73 81

38 59 46 47 67 68 77 80 82 86 101 92 111 101 82 84 72 86

39 52 56 48 60 67 72 77 72 94 99 104 105 95 87 84 74 78

40 57 63 49 69 66 79 82 79 92 108 105 112 98 86 87 76 82

41 53 49 59 58 60 75 79 82 95 99 101 100 95 80 80 78 91

42 47 49 53 68 69 88 83 76 89 110 107 109 101 86 83 75 82

43 53 49 49 67 65 84 70 74 95 99 106 105 102 88 78 86 88

44 46 64 47 57 68 76 69 77 97 104 109 108 106 101 92 71 79

45 56 54 58 67 67 75 79 69 91 99 113 106 104 106 85 88 87

46 48 63 51 62 67 81 72 81 85 104 115 110 116 86 88 86 91

47 52 50 58 67 66 89 77 85 102 101 103 122 104 101 99 89 97

48 52 61 52 63 67 89 84 85 95 111 98 125 106 96 88 94 100

49 49 49 40 70 68 76 83 82 101 107 104 117 98 107 96 82 98

50 50 48 50 58 69 74 81 84 106 109 116 108 111 100 90 83 91

51 41 47 41 66 66 74 76 78 94 114 105 125 112 93 90 91 89

52 51 47 45 71 62 78 72 78 89 112 112 117 123 99 101 89 97

53 51 40 48 56 61 69 68 81 99 109 113 135 111 100 94 80 98

54 52 50 41 62 62 69 71 74 93 103 120 124 117 104 99 95 100

55 36 40 46 58 60 72 74 73 94 112 117 119 111 96 105 97 100

56 40 44 53 57 67 74 68 73 86 101 110 117 107 96 100 83 96

57 41 39 45 54 57 71 67 73 91 107 113 111 123 100 95 102 101

58 38 41 45 69 67 61 75 72 91 111 112 117 109 99 92 88 94

59 43 41 44 47 55 70 73 74 79 99 98 115 100 107 89 89 95

60 36 41 36 45 56 74 76 79 72 111 96 107 106 95 99 102 99

Page 74 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 99: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

61 34 35 38 54 48 65 74 75 84 91 107 107 106 91 92 95 99

62 34 29 39 54 51 69 55 65 77 103 95 107 101 91 81 86 86

63 25 38 42 39 51 66 65 79 75 98 90 102 100 95 76 86 94

64 28 35 39 46 49 63 66 70 76 98 92 108 99 98 90 85 81

65 28 35 32 42 48 55 51 73 77 91 93 113 91 85 91 90 84

66 27 33 29 43 46 59 51 63 75 94 92 116 90 86 79 81 80

67 29 31 33 35 43 58 54 61 69 99 83 93 101 83 91 86 85

68 26 31 32 31 43 47 49 60 72 78 78 100 87 88 82 72 85

69 24 31 25 37 34 43 55 56 73 82 86 94 93 79 85 74 77

70 26 37 29 39 37 55 47 56 66 73 88 79 86 78 77 71 76

71 26 24 33 40 39 47 49 52 65 70 78 79 82 87 82 76 78

72 20 25 29 35 47 45 50 56 63 69 64 80 75 78 76 79 78

73 28 27 37 31 41 42 53 45 57 68 70 68 71 76 71 68 78

74 22 29 30 36 30 42 45 54 54 67 66 79 85 72 66 73 76

75 24 27 30 37 31 42 36 47 49 63 63 78 78 67 62 60 67

76 26 24 29 33 34 47 38 48 55 61 62 76 74 62 62 69 79

77 24 24 29 22 34 45 51 42 51 56 66 64 62 57 57 58 54

78 23 25 32 34 38 39 42 36 48 52 70 60 59 52 64 54 67

79 25 25 24 41 38 42 33 31 50 66 59 69 64 61 58 44 64

80 21 24 33 32 31 38 39 48 61 55 57 53 63 62 56 50 55

81 24 29 28 26 36 37 36 39 44 59 46 45 66 54 51 62 44

82 18 33 19 26 25 36 45 34 45 57 60 55 48 47 49 41 48

83 15 26 28 17 29 32 36 50 45 54 53 64 60 46 49 52 46

84 27 30 23 25 26 29 38 48 40 52 57 71 52 55 38 47 43

85+ 28 27 24 35 34 36 35 33 42 40 40 46 49 45 43 35 40

Page 75 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 100: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

2006 2007 2008 2009 Average

90 104 113 108 133

134 147 138 160 172

90 98 93 109 123

57 61 65 77 79

46 60 55 57 58

37 41 45 59 46

33 44 33 48 37

26 38 40 48 34

36 37 42 43 34

33 36 35 45 34

32 34 30 35 31

26 24 29 35 30

27 28 29 25 26

21 28 22 24 24

25 26 17 31 25

29 32 23 35 28

38 37 36 41 37

47 44 53 58 51

75 67 65 73 71

91 77 85 90 91

96 106 103 104 105

100 95 96 105 111

104 112 98 105 115

100 109 97 110 118

114 106 94 116 120

111 120 106 122 120

98 119 99 124 116

105 114 101 112 113

98 122 98 108 109

86 97 97 102 104

84 94 88 114 101

88 99 89 97 96

93 84 92 91 93

86 81 80 84 88

79 94 86 97 88

78 86 81 88 85

77 88 71 90 82

84 91 77 91 80

81 85 82 91 80

95 84 77 85 79

88 94 71 97 83

77 88 78 88 79

83 89 88 104 83

76 91 76 90 80

89 92 86 101 83

83 102 91 99 85

85 92 97 103 85

88 88 96 103 87

88 89 97 106 88

94 106 102 108 87

91 98 95 114 87

84 107 88 109 85

87 106 105 116 88

102 110 103 116 88

97 105 99 112 88

102 114 107 125 89

92 110 110 122 86

102 105 103 117 87

99 113 98 126 86

99 111 100 123 83

93 115 111 141 85

Page 76 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 101: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

99 111 108 118 82

102 112 106 137 80

97 128 109 123 80

92 111 110 129 79

95 109 103 144 78

89 118 99 119 75

97 108 94 121 74

81 101 108 117 70

79 110 96 124 69

83 105 107 131 69

93 105 108 125 69

79 98 95 125 65

75 95 100 127 63

68 81 96 136 62

78 88 87 131 59

66 80 86 119 59

79 87 89 121 56

71 92 85 104 55

59 65 80 90 52

63 82 80 93 52

60 61 81 83 48

57 64 69 80 46

49 55 66 82 45

52 65 70 68 45

45 51 54 66 40

Page 77 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 102: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File 2008_Pop_estimates_NHS_regions Campylobacter with charts

Title 1n. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000 per year between 1989 and 2009 by age and sex.

Prevalence males

Row Labels 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0 198 187 181 191 191 208 197 176 212 202 190 176 175 166 154 154 135 133

1 250 245 225 242 237 271 249 249 272 273 273 246 221 216 184 191 174 174

2 174 185 188 200 191 204 171 172 196 212 208 162 157 144 123 136 129 131

3 111 114 118 123 120 135 112 115 121 128 119 105 91 86 80 85 91 76

4 73 85 87 82 88 95 79 75 86 98 93 82 78 60 59 54 60 61

5 64 59 54 56 63 70 61 63 75 73 71 61 53 52 49 46 56 60

6 49 59 50 57 51 64 53 52 56 67 62 58 51 51 38 42 49 51

7 49 36 47 54 49 51 50 49 58 60 60 62 46 45 44 43 49 49

8 45 44 47 42 38 45 46 53 54 54 58 50 43 37 39 42 52 41

9 48 47 47 43 45 49 57 46 51 54 53 42 49 37 38 39 44 44

10 40 45 47 49 48 53 44 50 60 55 60 60 45 47 40 39 43 41

11 42 37 43 48 42 50 43 47 50 48 60 57 50 38 40 41 45 47

12 39 31 40 42 42 40 51 44 54 58 58 48 55 45 40 39 45 50

13 31 36 34 43 44 44 47 48 51 54 65 55 59 36 41 37 39 44

14 36 36 33 42 42 45 40 45 54 58 61 50 47 46 47 50 43 52

15 39 38 34 33 47 55 48 48 51 52 51 58 59 44 48 44 49 43

16 51 47 44 40 49 57 46 54 72 72 56 65 58 49 52 47 52 58

17 45 61 45 58 50 64 72 63 86 95 92 86 83 64 63 59 64 66

18 59 63 62 66 63 93 79 83 109 112 109 114 102 82 75 74 77 80

19 77 79 69 86 85 97 94 111 124 147 127 129 136 88 91 90 92 88

20 87 87 72 86 94 115 112 112 134 138 139 138 132 116 102 101 99 105

21 90 94 80 103 104 121 110 112 132 148 141 148 153 107 119 94 86 91

22 92 89 91 105 110 131 105 129 133 148 141 137 148 117 110 106 93 91

23 98 93 97 105 101 121 130 113 149 144 138 155 140 111 111 112 115 104

24 95 104 82 111 111 126 120 119 150 163 140 139 140 109 118 108 108 115

25 97 103 76 101 107 130 111 129 146 153 154 145 153 108 121 107 111 113

26 97 99 83 99 103 115 121 133 142 155 153 138 128 113 119 103 108 100

27 90 91 86 102 96 122 124 115 143 156 146 145 140 114 104 106 108 105

28 90 88 89 94 102 125 117 112 141 151 154 154 143 120 115 105 99 104

29 85 93 81 95 97 117 120 122 132 144 139 150 133 111 113 105 90 96

30 82 93 90 101 92 118 105 122 138 151 140 136 139 120 107 101 103 94

31 82 90 80 92 96 106 110 105 127 140 137 142 128 120 102 95 100 97

32 89 78 86 83 90 112 105 116 128 143 137 139 122 110 111 102 98 92

33 72 85 79 91 88 106 104 108 119 132 122 127 127 111 109 92 103 92

34 66 81 78 90 95 95 97 104 112 137 120 132 110 94 93 98 102 91

35 81 79 65 76 92 111 98 96 121 125 137 131 122 92 99 91 99 96

36 70 80 71 78 87 104 100 98 107 139 130 136 115 112 102 100 98 91

37 74 76 67 80 96 112 105 92 119 138 129 125 131 104 102 85 89 84

38 70 67 65 71 82 105 97 93 124 122 134 129 120 103 100 89 94 96

39 71 65 59 80 88 95 83 87 117 128 129 128 119 101 104 92 105 93

40 76 67 65 86 80 97 96 103 115 128 122 136 126 104 102 99 102 99

41 74 68 65 70 82 105 95 109 121 117 122 127 122 102 105 97 103 101

42 62 71 68 74 74 94 94 107 110 136 116 128 129 101 97 97 104 92

43 66 66 68 69 81 100 97 100 112 128 126 148 115 105 112 105 100 107

Page 78 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 103: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

44 63 65 69 73 82 98 94 90 105 121 140 129 116 117 103 111 102 108

45 56 65 59 79 78 88 91 91 114 126 124 130 120 118 104 92 100 92

46 61 61 60 77 74 86 93 93 117 131 138 137 130 107 115 108 111 111

47 49 52 67 78 74 90 97 98 128 122 123 130 124 110 109 116 114 106

48 61 58 63 63 70 100 102 100 117 124 129 133 132 119 116 106 108 107

49 53 53 50 68 80 87 89 103 118 141 118 132 115 105 109 106 113 110

50 51 56 64 68 89 99 91 86 111 131 131 128 120 110 111 116 117 119

51 52 54 65 59 80 88 91 97 109 121 136 140 127 111 114 116 111 105

52 46 57 57 61 60 83 80 101 113 133 126 133 125 118 119 110 107 116

53 63 48 56 68 64 80 71 78 107 117 137 135 127 116 112 118 110 122

54 48 56 55 60 65 74 79 108 97 120 126 123 133 112 117 111 108 111

55 47 50 53 66 69 73 74 79 105 112 121 124 128 106 105 109 115 109

56 44 50 51 51 69 75 78 84 97 125 122 120 115 102 110 113 118 120

57 44 55 49 74 67 81 81 82 90 126 113 118 121 116 105 117 115 117

58 44 43 50 69 66 81 73 67 94 109 114 131 117 116 116 106 113 109

59 49 50 49 58 65 76 69 72 86 93 97 113 123 98 104 104 111 117

60 42 40 55 58 60 82 71 81 103 115 112 111 106 112 101 111 116 118

61 40 42 38 58 59 79 72 70 87 112 114 111 96 102 96 101 117 109

62 37 40 44 49 61 74 66 78 87 101 108 116 102 94 96 98 107 117

63 41 39 43 52 52 71 67 69 86 96 104 111 104 105 100 98 93 105

64 34 31 43 47 50 75 62 64 96 101 103 107 102 96 91 88 105 123

65 38 42 34 43 55 59 60 73 92 88 110 111 102 99 91 95 102 118

66 30 35 42 47 50 68 62 72 86 105 113 111 110 84 96 95 98 100

67 31 33 36 44 58 61 59 66 73 86 102 107 102 101 98 100 101 91

68 36 36 37 44 48 61 61 64 80 87 91 104 93 93 98 90 99 111

69 31 36 35 45 51 60 55 64 69 101 74 94 95 85 107 88 97 95

70 32 32 35 45 47 63 57 60 70 88 88 100 89 83 95 97 101 114

71 29 33 37 50 44 50 53 64 66 89 87 97 87 93 85 90 101 109

72 22 24 30 38 36 45 48 55 72 84 83 95 86 85 81 86 111 107

73 25 34 30 32 36 58 50 54 62 86 74 74 88 78 75 100 90 96

74 26 23 41 44 55 55 58 56 58 76 79 86 85 93 73 84 83 88

75 36 28 34 42 49 52 62 57 56 69 77 90 91 79 81 82 86 92

76 27 29 45 47 49 61 39 51 57 73 67 81 84 74 64 85 95 80

77 25 30 37 40 36 43 41 48 54 76 69 68 86 66 75 75 79 94

78 26 29 29 51 43 47 47 34 60 87 71 69 74 68 61 87 84 84

79 31 24 31 51 49 45 36 53 53 63 78 74 68 79 75 59 99 82

80 29 36 46 48 48 56 41 48 59 77 71 84 76 73 62 70 57 80

81 26 40 37 37 34 50 47 51 53 57 56 77 78 68 70 76 75 87

82 29 42 36 42 43 53 38 60 60 54 84 61 55 80 54 88 64 80

83 49 31 31 36 40 66 51 63 53 66 54 68 68 57 54 63 58 64

84 35 35 37 32 36 49 45 49 74 61 54 69 69 70 59 66 85 82

85+ 36 39 45 50 54 64 57 49 61 73 57 88 61 74 65 61 63 68

Page 79 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 104: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

2007 2008 2009 Average

134 136 144 173

195 190 217 228

139 145 162 168

97 94 102 106

69 74 85 77

70 65 82 62

57 54 62 54

55 56 58 51

51 55 60 47

47 49 54 47

52 48 59 49

46 54 59 47

41 49 53 46

48 44 50 45

47 45 67 47

53 48 55 47

51 50 57 54

67 70 77 68

80 82 81 83

85 88 109 100

108 94 109 109

106 96 109 112

95 97 101 113

97 92 103 116

95 91 106 117

106 87 105 117

102 98 109 115

100 111 107 115

106 88 111 115

98 93 107 111

100 92 110 111

99 81 88 106

91 89 99 106

101 78 93 102

90 93 85 98

89 85 96 99

102 93 106 101

99 94 93 100

100 89 110 98

105 89 100 97

107 93 106 101

102 89 103 99

107 98 97 98

111 96 101 101

Page 80 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 105: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

105 93 108 100

120 101 114 98

101 109 108 101

124 108 111 101

122 111 130 103

116 111 119 100

129 129 129 104

133 114 133 103

130 126 124 101

135 124 134 101

131 134 141 100

126 121 131 96

121 109 147 96

123 126 146 98

126 123 143 96

130 123 153 92

145 127 142 96

136 142 137 91

143 126 159 91

134 134 157 89

139 141 160 88

149 141 158 89

131 114 155 86

126 126 166 84

130 134 137 83

121 122 130 79

124 132 139 81

103 126 126 77

134 124 133 75

119 125 146 73

125 124 135 74

119 131 136 74

120 119 137 71

110 118 131 67

109 118 137 67

104 104 132 66

80 111 121 65

125 111 137 66

106 98 105 63

94 82 104 60

87 94 113 62

85 94 101 64

Page 81 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 106: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter in children3 with age and season charts

Title

Figure 2. The weekly distribution of

Campylobacter cases as a percentage of all

cases over different age groups (unadjusted

data).

Week of year 9 months 18 months3 years 6 years 12 years 24 years 48 years >48 years

01 1.6 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2

02 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2

03 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2

04 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

05 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3

06 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4

07 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4

08 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5

09 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

10 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5

11 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4

12 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

13 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

14 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4

15 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3

16 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4

17 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5

18 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

19 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7

20 2.4 2.9 3.7 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.3

21 2.7 3.3 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.6

22 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.2

23 2.3 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.5 3.0 2.8 2.8

24 2.4 3.2 3.7 3.7 4.1 2.8 2.9 2.8

25 2.5 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 2.7 2.9 2.8

26 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.8

27 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7

28 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7

29 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

30 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.3

31 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3

32 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4

33 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4

34 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.2

35 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0

36 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2

37 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1

38 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2

39 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2

40 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2

41 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1

42 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1

43 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1

44 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1

45 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0

46 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9

47 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9

48 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9

49 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.8

50 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7

51 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6

52 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0

Page 82 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 107: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Copy of RAW-Campy_PubMLST_isolates_130911-4 with charts

Title

Typing data on cases of Campylobacter from England and

Wales 1989-2009. Data in the HPA dataset (29,081 isolates)

includes the number of C. jejuni and C. coli combined

serotype (HS) and phage type (PT) combinations (HS/PT)

against the number of isolates in each type (a) and the

separate HS and PT types for C. jejuni and C. coli

Types 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256

aspA strains 34 12 3 3 5 0 4 1 1

glnA strains 19 37 6 10 3 3 3 2 1

gltA strains 21 18 7 4 1 3 2 2 2

glyA strains 44 21 6 7 3 2 1 2 2

pgm strains 57 20 12 3 5 5 4 1 1

tkt strains 40 21 10 7 7 1 1 1 2

uncA strains 26 12 5 3 3 0 3 1 2

Average over 7 MLST genes34.4 20.1 7.0 5.3 3.9 2.0 2.6 1.4 1.6

ST (MLST) strains 626 90 22 8 7 4

clonal complex (MLST) strains3 5 0 6 8 5 5 1

Page 83 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 108: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Sentinel surveillance C jejuni with serotypand phage type 3 v2 and charts

Data in the HPA dataset (29,081 isolates) includes the number of C. jejuni and C. coli combined serotype (HS)

and phage type (PT) combinations (HS/PT) against the number of isolates in each type

Title 3a. and the separate HS and PT types for C. jejuni and C. coli

Number of isolatesC. jejuni C. coli Total

1024 1 0 1

512 1 0 1

256 7 1 8

128 11 2 13

64 22 2 24

32 35 3 40

16 55 8 60

8 63 8 71

4 116 9 127

2 203 27 224

1 353 42 381

867

1 697 82 761

10 145 16 160

100 24 4 28

1000 1 0 1

Page 84 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 109: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70P

erc

en

tage

of Campylobacter

iso

late

s re

sist

ant

Years

CiprofloxacinErythromycinTetracyclineAmpicillin

Page 85 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 110: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Antibiotic resistance with charts

Title 4a. Resistance of Campylobacter isolates to antibiotics between 1989 and 2009.

Year 1989-1991 1992-1994 1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006 2007-2009 Total

Ciprofloxacin 13.2 10.7 4.9 20.3 24.8 29.3 36.2 32.1

Erythromycin 0.0 0.8 0.9 13.3 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2

Nalidixic acid 5.9 5.6 9.0 14.3 24.3 29.9 35.8 31.6

Tetracycline 18.8 14.3 20.8 3.2 29.9 34.6 36.3 31.4

Gentamicin 1.5 0.1 0.6 2.9 1.2 2.7 0.8 1.3

Ampicillin 50.0 18.4 21.3 37.8 41.5 55.1 50.2 38.6

Chloramphenicol 9.1 5.7 1.5 0.0 1.6 3.8 3.2 3.6

Page 86 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 111: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Bank Holiday 6 incl weekly data by year with charts

Title 4b. Campylobacter cases per day before and after Bank holidays in England and Wales 1989 to 2009.

The dotted line represents an estimate of the cases that would have occurred if there had not been a Bank Holiday.

Days Good Friday Easter MondayEarly May Spring August Christmas Day

-30 97 97 84 106 161 117

-29 97 97 84 106 160 117

-28 97 96 84 100 160 117

-27 97 95 85 100 160 117

-26 97 95 86 101 160 117

-25 96 94 86 104 161 116

-24 95 94 86 106 163 115

-23 95 93 86 107 162 115

-22 94 93 86 108 163 115

-21 94 93 84 109 164 113

-20 93 93 86 113 165 113

-19 93 92 87 118 166 111

-18 93 93 88 122 166 110

-17 93 93 92 125 167 111

-16 92 93 93 126 167 109

-15 93 93 93 127 167 108

-14 93 94 98 145 166 107

-13 93 93 99 153 165 106

-12 93 93 100 156 165 105

-11 94 92 101 160 164 104

-10 93 92 102 165 163 103

-9 93 92 102 166 163 103

-8 92 92 102 166 163 101

-7 92 90 104 172 163 101

-6 92 89 105 178 163 100

-5 92 89 106 184 161 98

-4 90 88 107 187 161 96

-3 89 74 109 191 158 95

-2 89 74 109 191 158 93

-1 88 74 109 191 157 88

0 74 59 91 157 127 75

1 74 57 90 144 119 63

2 74 62 96 149 125 56

3 59 65 100 151 127 52

4 57 81 105 154 132 53

5 62 82 106 155 133 56

6 65 82 106 155 133 59

7 81 100 135 196 164 62

8 82 106 145 216 174 70

9 82 105 148 215 169 75

10 100 105 152 217 168 79

11 106 106 155 217 165 71

12 105 106 157 217 164 77

13 105 107 157 217 164 78

14 106 106 162 213 160 79

15 106 105 167 209 156 83

16 107 107 173 204 154 85

17 106 107 178 201 150 84

18 105 107 183 201 148 83

19 107 107 183 200 148 82

20 107 108 183 200 148 82

21 107 105 167 198 146 81

22 107 107 163 197 146 81

23 108 110 167 197 145 82

24 105 113 169 196 145 83

25 107 116 170 194 145 83

26 110 117 170 194 145 83

27 113 117 170 195 144 84

28 116 125 178 194 144 86

29 117 129 181 195 142 86

30 117 132 184 194 142 86

Page 87 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 112: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

0

100

200

300

400

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Cas

es

pe

r d

ay

(OP

IE r

aw)

Page 88 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 113: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

0

100

200

300

400

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Cas

es

pe

r d

ay

(no

rmal

ise

d)

Page 89 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 114: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only050

100150200250300350400450

1

29

57

85

11

3

14

1

16

9

19

7

22

5

25

3

28

1

30

9

33

7

36

5Campylobacter

case

s p

er

day

as

a %

of

all c

ase

s

Day of year

Average

Max

Min

Page 90 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 115: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only050

100150200250300350400450

1

29

57

85

11

3

14

1

16

9

19

7

22

5

25

3

28

1

30

9

33

7

36

5Campylobacter

case

s p

er

day

as

a %

of

all c

ase

s

Day of year

Average

Max

Min

Page 91 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 116: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter April 2010 charts 15 seasonality

Title 4c. Time series of campylobacter by day of year 1989 to 2009 showing unmodified data (OPIE raw),

data also adjusted for bank holidays (adjusted) and also adjusted for long term trend (normalised).

Adjusted Normalised OPIE Raw

Row LabelsAverageMax Min Row LabelsAverageMax Min Row LabelsAverageMax Min Row LabelsAverageMax Min

1 77 130 22 1 65 87 23 1 63 106 34 1 12 27 6

2 77 130 26 2 65 86 22 2 63 105 40 2 77 174 8

3 77 130 30 3 64 86 22 3 64 105 34 3 72 179 5

4 86 130 32 4 71 95 25 4 73 106 44 4 89 163 11

5 86 130 37 5 71 94 24 5 84 130 43 5 89 173 5

6 86 130 42 6 71 93 24 6 85 134 51 6 88 163 6

7 86 129 46 7 71 93 23 7 87 133 53 7 82 189 9

8 86 129 48 8 71 94 23 8 86 129 52 8 90 184 6

9 86 129 49 9 70 94 23 9 86 130 52 9 88 196 8

10 85 129 50 10 70 95 23 10 85 128 50 10 85 173 6

11 85 129 51 11 70 96 22 11 84 127 49 11 80 139 6

12 85 128 51 12 70 97 22 12 83 125 50 12 88 164 5

13 85 128 51 13 70 98 22 13 84 125 49 13 80 169 1

14 85 126 51 14 70 100 22 14 85 120 52 14 77 149 9

15 85 125 51 15 70 102 23 15 86 119 51 15 85 169 9

16 85 123 51 16 71 105 23 16 85 115 52 16 96 198 8

17 85 121 51 17 71 107 24 17 86 115 51 17 89 142 11

18 85 119 51 18 72 109 25 18 88 116 53 18 85 151 13

19 86 118 52 19 73 110 26 19 89 118 54 19 87 157 7

20 87 117 53 20 74 111 27 20 89 118 55 20 86 171 6

21 88 117 53 21 75 110 29 21 89 117 54 21 85 162 11

22 88 117 53 22 76 109 32 22 90 120 54 22 94 184 6

23 89 118 54 23 77 108 34 23 91 126 53 23 99 186 7

24 90 120 54 24 78 107 37 24 92 128 57 24 90 189 7

25 90 122 55 25 78 105 40 25 92 127 55 25 90 176 9

26 91 123 55 26 79 103 38 26 92 130 54 26 95 193 5

27 91 126 54 27 79 102 36 27 92 134 53 27 91 182 9

28 92 129 54 28 79 101 35 28 92 138 54 28 87 168 10

29 92 131 54 29 80 103 35 29 93 137 54 29 95 213 9

30 92 133 54 30 80 104 35 30 93 135 55 30 96 216 4

31 92 133 54 31 80 106 36 31 93 133 53 31 94 173 8

32 93 134 54 32 81 107 37 32 93 133 54 32 91 181 6

33 93 134 54 33 81 108 38 33 94 131 53 33 97 179 9

34 93 133 55 34 81 109 40 34 94 126 55 34 89 159 6

35 93 132 56 35 82 109 41 35 95 126 54 35 88 168 6

36 94 130 54 36 82 109 42 36 95 126 48 36 102 233 5

37 94 129 53 37 82 109 43 37 95 129 49 37 99 186 5

38 94 129 52 38 82 109 43 38 95 131 48 38 99 167 7

39 95 129 51 39 81 109 44 39 95 132 47 39 93 180 5

40 95 129 49 40 81 109 44 40 93 129 45 40 95 182 7

41 94 129 48 41 80 110 45 41 93 128 44 41 90 182 7

42 94 129 46 42 79 110 45 42 92 125 42 42 85 151 5

43 94 129 46 43 79 111 47 43 92 125 45 43 93 190 5

44 93 127 45 44 79 111 49 44 91 120 45 44 97 179 9

45 92 126 45 45 79 111 51 45 91 120 45 45 91 166 2

46 92 124 45 46 79 111 53 46 91 120 49 46 90 177 10

47 92 123 46 47 79 111 56 47 92 124 52 47 91 164 4

48 92 123 47 48 80 111 59 48 92 130 54 48 89 163 6

49 92 124 49 49 81 111 62 49 93 129 55 49 87 149 3

50 92 125 51 50 82 111 63 50 95 128 58 50 98 213 9

51 93 126 53 51 83 111 63 51 96 132 59 51 99 219 8

52 94 128 55 52 84 110 64 52 96 132 59 52 100 181 5

53 94 130 56 53 85 110 65 53 97 132 59 53 98 184 6

54 95 131 58 54 86 110 66 54 98 133 60 54 98 195 3

55 96 132 58 55 87 109 67 55 98 134 60 55 94 204 6

56 97 133 59 56 87 110 68 56 99 143 61 56 93 167 10

57 98 136 59 57 88 111 69 57 99 148 58 57 101 201 5

58 98 138 59 58 88 112 69 58 100 146 58 58 105 227 7

59 99 140 59 59 89 114 69 59 100 147 59 59 106 260 7

60 99 142 59 60 89 115 69 60 100 146 56 60 96 203 7

Page 92 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 117: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

61 99 144 58 61 88 116 69 61 100 142 57 61 104 195 6

62 100 144 58 62 88 116 69 62 100 142 58 62 96 196 11

63 100 141 58 63 88 116 68 63 99 137 59 63 92 180 8

64 100 138 58 64 87 116 68 64 99 142 60 64 102 213 9

65 100 140 58 65 87 116 67 65 98 140 60 65 106 191 8

66 99 139 58 66 86 115 66 66 97 133 59 66 98 193 11

67 99 138 59 67 86 115 64 67 97 133 61 67 98 193 8

68 98 136 60 68 85 115 62 68 97 140 62 68 94 184 8

69 98 135 60 69 85 115 60 69 96 139 63 69 90 178 6

70 97 136 61 70 84 114 58 70 96 139 64 70 93 180 7

71 97 137 62 71 84 113 56 71 95 141 66 71 103 266 5

72 97 139 63 72 83 112 54 72 96 146 67 72 100 158 8

73 96 140 64 73 82 109 52 73 95 144 67 73 98 191 5

74 96 142 65 74 82 106 51 74 94 145 67 74 91 185 6

75 95 143 65 75 81 105 51 75 94 142 64 75 96 224 7

76 95 143 65 76 80 106 51 76 93 144 61 76 85 180 4

77 94 144 64 77 80 107 51 77 92 144 59 77 88 164 9

78 94 144 63 78 79 108 52 78 91 143 56 78 101 242 5

79 93 143 61 79 78 109 53 79 90 140 55 79 93 176 3

80 93 142 60 80 78 110 53 80 89 139 51 80 91 192 3

81 92 142 58 81 77 111 53 81 88 141 52 81 82 200 9

82 92 141 57 82 77 112 51 82 87 137 52 82 88 203 5

83 91 140 56 83 76 112 49 83 86 135 41 83 79 187 4

84 91 138 55 84 76 113 48 84 85 134 38 84 78 178 4

85 91 137 54 85 76 113 48 85 85 134 37 85 94 218 7

86 91 136 52 86 76 113 48 86 85 135 37 86 92 187 5

87 91 134 52 87 76 113 48 87 85 137 46 87 80 180 8

88 91 135 52 88 77 113 48 88 84 136 35 88 80 172 9

89 91 135 53 89 77 111 49 89 83 137 30 89 90 211 7

90 91 135 53 90 77 110 49 90 83 133 30 90 80 204 5

91 91 135 54 91 77 108 49 91 85 133 35 91 71 172 6

92 92 135 53 92 78 108 49 92 84 133 43 92 85 202 9

93 92 134 53 93 78 110 49 93 83 128 45 93 94 181 7

94 92 131 53 94 79 113 49 94 85 128 45 94 92 173 8

95 92 131 53 95 79 115 49 95 88 128 56 95 79 189 12

96 93 131 53 96 80 117 50 96 87 127 52 96 83 162 10

97 93 131 54 97 80 118 51 97 85 127 52 97 89 175 6

98 94 132 55 98 81 119 52 98 87 134 52 98 93 180 4

99 94 132 56 99 82 121 53 99 89 135 43 99 83 187 4

100 95 132 57 100 83 122 55 100 87 138 43 100 78 160 8

101 96 133 59 101 84 124 56 101 86 139 44 101 105 215 7

102 97 134 60 102 85 125 58 102 88 140 45 102 92 199 8

103 98 136 61 103 86 127 60 103 89 141 38 103 68 190 9

104 99 138 62 104 87 128 62 104 91 140 36 104 83 196 7

105 100 139 63 105 89 130 64 105 89 137 41 105 104 201 3

106 101 140 64 106 90 130 66 106 90 136 43 106 92 187 7

107 102 142 64 107 91 131 68 107 96 137 53 107 94 205 6

108 102 144 64 108 92 130 69 108 98 149 44 108 90 192 8

109 103 146 64 109 93 129 70 109 96 149 40 109 102 196 13

110 104 147 65 110 94 129 70 110 98 150 45 110 110 218 8

111 104 148 65 111 95 130 70 111 101 150 54 111 92 233 5

112 105 149 66 112 96 131 69 112 103 150 70 112 91 191 3

113 106 149 68 113 96 132 69 113 103 151 70 113 108 187 7

114 106 150 69 114 97 133 69 114 103 151 70 114 116 193 9

115 106 150 70 115 97 134 68 115 105 152 72 115 103 184 10

116 107 151 70 116 98 135 68 116 108 153 70 116 101 197 11

117 107 151 70 117 99 135 68 117 108 152 66 117 113 233 3

118 107 152 69 118 99 136 69 118 106 155 65 118 107 241 11

119 108 153 68 119 100 137 70 119 104 154 61 119 107 209 8

120 109 153 66 120 101 138 71 120 103 155 59 120 107 182 7

121 110 154 65 121 103 139 74 121 100 134 61 121 103 206 6

122 111 155 64 122 105 140 76 122 99 135 60 122 88 196 4

123 113 157 64 123 107 142 76 123 98 137 51 123 94 205 13

124 115 158 65 124 110 143 77 124 98 141 54 124 92 237 7

125 117 160 67 125 113 145 78 125 101 143 61 125 101 257 7

126 120 164 71 126 117 147 81 126 108 173 67 126 103 231 12

127 124 169 75 127 121 149 86 127 115 185 73 127 102 236 7

Page 93 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 118: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

128 127 174 79 128 126 152 91 128 123 186 74 128 126 210 12

129 131 179 84 129 130 154 97 129 129 190 74 129 138 239 17

130 134 185 89 130 135 161 104 130 135 201 94 130 140 305 17

131 138 190 94 131 139 168 111 131 144 205 105 131 149 302 11

132 141 195 98 132 144 175 114 132 150 208 110 132 144 279 12

133 144 199 103 133 149 182 115 133 155 209 117 133 146 275 15

134 148 202 108 134 154 189 117 134 158 209 122 134 164 289 16

135 151 206 112 135 159 196 119 135 162 214 123 135 170 320 11

136 155 208 115 136 164 202 121 136 166 214 124 136 168 291 23

137 158 209 119 137 169 208 123 137 170 220 127 137 164 305 11

138 162 210 123 138 174 214 125 138 174 234 128 138 180 354 10

139 166 215 128 139 180 220 128 139 180 249 131 139 167 341 19

140 171 218 129 140 186 225 132 140 185 251 133 140 179 320 9

141 175 228 131 141 191 232 136 141 188 250 137 141 192 327 14

142 179 237 133 142 196 244 141 142 186 239 145 142 211 352 26

143 183 245 136 143 201 253 147 143 183 234 122 143 202 351 20

144 187 250 139 144 206 261 151 144 180 232 123 144 187 377 18

145 190 254 142 145 210 267 155 145 174 235 121 145 164 332 17

146 193 255 144 146 213 271 159 146 167 233 111 146 149 302 17

147 195 257 147 147 216 274 162 147 160 227 117 147 157 379 9

148 197 258 149 148 219 280 165 148 155 205 110 148 148 351 15

149 199 260 151 149 222 285 166 149 158 251 115 149 157 352 16

150 201 261 152 150 225 291 165 150 167 269 113 150 156 298 15

151 202 262 153 151 227 296 165 151 172 261 114 151 153 278 15

152 204 263 154 152 230 301 167 152 181 267 101 152 185 381 20

153 206 262 155 153 233 306 171 153 191 260 104 153 213 426 11

154 208 262 157 154 235 310 176 154 200 260 123 154 193 345 13

155 210 261 158 155 237 313 178 155 209 261 138 155 209 359 16

156 212 260 159 156 239 315 179 156 212 262 140 156 226 351 21

157 213 257 160 157 241 316 181 157 212 264 142 157 224 385 27

158 214 260 161 158 242 316 181 158 214 265 163 158 211 411 15

159 214 261 161 159 242 314 182 159 213 267 156 159 209 420 15

160 214 260 161 160 241 310 182 160 210 268 150 160 211 395 23

161 213 262 160 161 240 306 182 161 206 265 145 161 205 336 11

162 211 262 158 162 238 300 181 162 203 255 143 162 206 337 14

163 209 261 155 163 236 294 181 163 202 250 145 163 202 332 22

164 207 259 151 164 233 288 181 164 199 241 145 164 198 363 17

165 204 254 147 165 230 283 181 165 198 236 145 165 189 342 11

166 202 250 146 166 228 279 178 166 198 238 147 166 201 381 12

167 200 245 145 167 225 277 174 167 197 236 143 167 196 354 9

168 199 241 146 168 223 277 172 168 197 236 141 168 192 331 13

169 198 239 145 169 222 276 170 169 197 236 142 169 206 342 21

170 198 237 144 170 220 274 170 170 197 236 143 170 201 355 14

171 197 236 144 171 220 272 170 171 195 234 144 171 195 330 17

172 197 237 145 172 219 269 172 172 196 243 144 172 190 341 26

173 196 236 145 173 218 265 174 173 192 230 141 173 196 376 22

174 195 235 144 174 217 261 177 174 192 233 140 174 189 358 17

175 195 235 142 175 217 259 180 175 194 233 135 175 195 326 14

176 194 234 141 176 216 264 181 176 194 239 127 176 182 307 13

177 194 233 140 177 215 268 178 177 193 245 129 177 199 353 25

178 194 232 136 178 215 271 175 178 193 245 126 178 209 396 17

179 193 234 133 179 214 272 173 179 192 243 126 179 188 369 13

180 193 238 130 180 213 270 170 180 194 244 129 180 193 339 15

181 193 242 128 181 212 265 167 181 193 243 126 181 184 307 13

182 193 241 127 182 211 259 165 182 191 229 128 182 189 323 13

183 192 239 127 183 210 254 164 183 190 233 126 183 193 338 13

184 192 236 126 184 209 254 162 184 189 236 121 184 193 338 14

185 191 232 126 185 208 253 161 185 189 234 121 185 193 328 23

186 190 229 125 186 207 250 160 186 188 234 119 186 184 327 20

187 189 230 124 187 206 247 159 187 186 229 119 187 188 335 15

188 188 231 124 188 204 244 158 188 186 224 118 188 181 349 22

189 188 229 121 189 203 245 158 189 186 233 116 189 182 312 11

190 187 226 120 190 201 245 157 190 185 235 117 190 180 324 16

191 186 223 118 191 200 242 155 191 183 231 114 191 196 367 17

192 185 222 117 192 198 237 154 192 180 225 115 192 190 353 15

193 184 223 117 193 196 230 151 193 179 227 117 193 177 349 20

194 183 224 116 194 193 226 148 194 178 235 117 194 174 353 19

Page 94 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 119: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

195 181 225 116 195 191 224 144 195 176 238 113 195 162 313 12

196 179 229 115 196 189 223 140 196 174 240 112 196 174 345 14

197 178 232 114 197 187 223 136 197 173 238 110 197 174 312 13

198 176 234 113 198 184 221 132 198 171 235 109 198 180 306 16

199 175 235 112 199 182 218 128 199 170 234 107 199 178 306 16

200 173 235 111 200 180 215 125 200 168 228 106 200 165 337 13

201 171 234 109 201 178 213 124 201 166 224 105 201 164 327 11

202 169 231 108 202 176 210 123 202 164 219 106 202 156 301 17

203 168 228 108 203 175 207 123 203 163 218 110 203 157 291 15

204 166 224 108 204 173 204 124 204 162 211 110 204 161 278 9

205 165 220 108 205 172 200 126 205 161 206 114 205 169 298 19

206 164 215 110 206 171 196 128 206 161 201 118 206 167 281 18

207 162 211 112 207 170 192 130 207 160 198 119 207 160 292 10

208 162 206 114 208 170 189 133 208 160 193 118 208 155 287 11

209 161 203 116 209 170 185 136 209 159 199 117 209 157 264 6

210 161 199 117 210 170 187 138 210 160 205 116 210 150 264 13

211 160 197 118 211 170 194 142 211 160 216 115 211 165 329 9

212 160 199 117 212 170 199 145 212 160 224 113 212 161 296 16

213 160 205 116 213 171 201 146 213 160 222 111 213 170 291 7

214 160 211 115 214 172 202 144 214 162 220 113 214 159 305 11

215 160 215 113 215 172 201 141 215 163 218 109 215 161 321 15

216 161 218 112 216 173 198 140 216 164 219 107 216 153 311 24

217 162 219 112 217 174 194 139 217 164 216 113 217 163 291 16

218 162 217 111 218 175 197 139 218 165 220 113 218 172 313 8

219 163 214 112 219 176 199 138 219 165 223 118 219 169 308 19

220 164 217 113 220 176 202 138 220 166 220 117 220 174 305 19

221 165 218 113 221 176 205 138 221 166 217 115 221 161 326 15

222 165 217 114 222 177 207 139 222 166 208 118 222 166 343 14

223 165 215 116 223 177 208 140 223 167 214 118 223 156 288 14

224 166 214 116 224 176 208 140 224 166 214 114 224 165 322 9

225 166 210 116 225 176 213 140 225 165 216 114 225 168 285 21

226 166 206 115 226 176 217 141 226 165 220 110 226 176 327 14

227 166 212 114 227 175 220 142 227 166 226 112 227 169 291 16

228 165 216 114 228 175 221 142 228 164 224 112 228 155 276 15

229 165 219 113 229 174 221 142 229 164 223 113 229 164 312 13

230 165 220 113 230 173 221 142 230 163 215 118 230 161 327 19

231 164 220 113 231 173 220 142 231 162 217 114 231 153 272 9

232 164 220 113 232 172 219 142 232 162 216 112 232 171 306 20

233 163 219 113 233 171 219 142 233 161 215 110 233 167 313 13

234 162 218 113 234 170 218 143 234 156 217 109 234 163 294 18

235 161 218 112 235 170 218 144 235 151 222 89 235 159 291 21

236 160 217 112 236 169 217 145 236 143 217 75 236 152 305 7

237 159 217 110 237 168 216 147 237 139 215 72 237 125 338 10

238 159 216 109 238 167 215 148 238 134 213 78 238 121 288 14

239 157 215 108 239 165 214 147 239 131 213 82 239 113 259 17

240 157 214 107 240 164 212 145 240 128 173 83 240 136 265 14

241 156 213 106 241 163 209 144 241 131 180 84 241 135 294 10

242 155 210 106 242 162 206 142 242 138 194 81 242 137 262 10

243 154 208 105 243 161 204 141 243 147 205 90 243 128 275 8

244 154 206 104 244 160 200 140 244 152 217 92 244 149 289 12

245 153 203 103 245 160 197 139 245 157 215 101 245 168 356 11

246 153 201 103 246 159 194 139 246 161 216 99 246 177 304 11

247 152 199 102 247 158 191 137 247 166 229 100 247 172 339 15

248 151 196 101 248 157 187 135 248 166 232 102 248 171 293 11

249 151 194 100 249 156 184 133 249 165 220 100 249 161 316 12

250 150 191 100 250 156 180 131 250 163 217 99 250 162 327 11

251 150 190 99 251 155 178 129 251 160 207 100 251 153 315 14

252 149 191 98 252 154 180 126 252 157 207 97 252 158 275 7

253 149 192 98 253 153 181 124 253 154 208 95 253 162 277 7

254 148 194 97 254 153 183 122 254 152 198 95 254 154 264 11

255 148 195 96 255 152 185 120 255 150 196 96 255 151 238 14

256 148 197 96 256 152 186 119 256 148 197 96 256 139 286 19

257 147 198 95 257 151 187 117 257 146 196 96 257 147 280 12

258 147 199 95 258 151 188 116 258 146 199 95 258 142 298 14

259 147 199 95 259 150 189 116 259 146 198 95 259 143 268 9

260 146 199 95 260 149 189 116 260 146 199 95 260 149 296 8

261 146 199 96 261 149 189 116 261 146 197 98 261 151 233 15

Page 95 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 120: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

262 146 199 96 262 148 187 117 262 145 198 96 262 149 241 9

263 145 198 96 263 148 185 118 263 144 192 98 263 139 253 11

264 145 196 97 264 147 182 120 264 143 189 99 264 146 266 13

265 144 194 97 265 146 179 122 265 143 184 99 265 136 307 12

266 144 192 98 266 145 179 124 266 143 184 102 266 139 249 9

267 144 190 99 267 144 181 126 267 142 183 98 267 143 273 11

268 143 187 100 268 144 183 127 268 142 181 97 268 147 245 14

269 143 184 100 269 143 184 125 269 141 176 97 269 149 250 11

270 142 181 99 270 142 183 122 270 140 174 94 270 136 266 15

271 142 179 98 271 141 181 120 271 139 176 94 271 142 257 13

272 141 178 97 272 140 177 119 272 139 182 88 272 134 253 14

273 140 177 94 273 140 173 117 273 138 180 85 273 131 229 7

274 140 176 92 274 139 168 116 274 138 179 82 274 137 222 7

275 139 177 89 275 139 164 115 275 138 178 84 275 146 275 8

276 139 178 88 276 138 160 115 276 138 180 87 276 142 259 12

277 138 179 87 277 138 160 115 277 138 180 87 277 136 284 8

278 138 179 86 278 137 160 115 278 138 178 89 278 139 253 12

279 138 179 87 279 137 160 114 279 137 179 93 279 133 273 14

280 138 179 88 280 136 159 111 280 137 178 90 280 129 228 16

281 137 179 89 281 136 158 108 281 136 178 92 281 137 231 12

282 137 179 90 282 135 160 105 282 136 178 90 282 142 246 16

283 137 178 90 283 134 162 102 283 135 177 89 283 141 225 16

284 136 178 90 284 133 164 99 284 134 179 90 284 134 290 14

285 136 177 90 285 132 166 97 285 134 184 88 285 135 269 10

286 135 176 90 286 131 167 95 286 133 181 91 286 128 277 8

287 134 178 90 287 130 169 95 287 132 179 92 287 125 232 13

288 134 179 90 288 129 169 95 288 131 180 90 288 135 241 9

289 133 179 90 289 128 169 95 289 131 179 90 289 134 264 11

290 132 179 90 290 127 167 97 290 130 178 87 290 135 283 10

291 132 177 89 291 126 165 99 291 129 178 87 291 126 267 6

292 131 176 89 292 125 161 99 292 128 178 87 292 133 245 11

293 130 176 88 293 124 157 96 293 128 179 84 293 120 266 9

294 129 175 87 294 122 153 93 294 126 177 81 294 123 252 17

295 128 175 85 295 121 153 91 295 126 177 78 295 128 239 8

296 127 174 82 296 120 154 89 296 124 175 73 296 129 227 7

297 127 175 81 297 120 154 87 297 124 174 75 297 127 237 9

298 126 175 79 298 120 155 87 298 123 173 74 298 123 239 12

299 125 175 77 299 120 156 88 299 122 174 74 299 120 254 6

300 124 175 75 300 120 157 90 300 123 177 72 300 115 263 9

301 124 175 75 301 121 158 91 301 125 176 76 301 116 239 9

302 124 175 75 302 123 160 92 302 126 175 78 302 123 244 7

303 124 176 76 303 124 162 93 303 128 185 82 303 136 262 11

304 125 178 78 304 125 163 94 304 130 186 84 304 138 292 10

305 126 180 79 305 126 163 96 305 132 189 83 305 129 264 10

306 128 183 81 306 127 162 97 306 133 191 81 306 138 291 5

307 129 184 83 307 127 160 97 307 132 183 80 307 129 268 10

308 130 185 83 308 126 156 98 308 131 182 80 308 127 243 6

309 131 185 82 309 125 152 97 309 130 181 81 309 130 261 8

310 131 183 81 310 124 146 97 310 128 175 81 310 134 223 11

311 130 180 81 311 122 143 96 311 127 167 81 311 133 271 10

312 129 176 81 312 121 140 95 312 125 160 81 312 122 243 10

313 128 171 82 313 119 137 94 313 123 160 77 313 123 215 9

314 127 169 81 314 117 135 92 314 122 160 79 314 118 235 7

315 125 165 80 315 116 134 91 315 121 157 78 315 116 215 15

316 124 162 79 316 115 134 90 316 120 159 78 316 117 228 13

317 123 159 79 317 114 134 88 317 120 157 76 317 127 243 11

318 122 159 78 318 113 134 87 318 120 166 76 318 125 249 7

319 121 160 77 319 113 134 85 319 119 167 76 319 113 235 9

320 120 161 77 320 112 134 84 320 119 166 79 320 126 239 7

321 120 162 77 321 112 134 82 321 119 168 77 321 116 246 8

322 119 164 77 322 111 135 80 322 119 166 76 322 113 218 11

323 119 164 76 323 111 135 79 323 119 162 74 323 117 233 8

324 119 165 76 324 111 135 77 324 118 163 71 324 122 220 9

325 119 163 76 325 110 134 76 325 117 165 68 325 125 240 10

326 118 162 75 326 110 132 75 326 117 161 70 326 112 202 14

327 118 161 74 327 109 134 75 327 117 158 70 327 118 251 9

328 118 161 73 328 109 136 76 328 117 162 71 328 113 240 12

Page 96 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 121: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

329 117 160 73 329 109 138 77 329 117 160 72 329 113 210 10

330 117 159 72 330 108 140 78 330 117 168 74 330 116 199 7

331 117 160 73 331 107 141 79 331 116 169 75 331 123 216 10

332 117 162 73 332 107 142 81 332 115 171 72 332 121 258 12

333 116 165 74 333 106 143 82 333 115 173 71 333 115 264 12

334 116 167 75 334 105 143 83 334 115 173 71 334 113 214 12

335 116 170 74 335 104 143 83 335 113 174 69 335 106 216 5

336 115 171 71 336 103 143 84 336 113 171 62 336 112 207 8

337 114 171 68 337 102 143 82 337 111 163 57 337 114 204 8

338 113 169 65 338 101 142 78 338 110 160 54 338 114 189 13

339 113 167 62 339 99 141 76 339 111 155 53 339 114 236 12

340 112 164 60 340 98 139 74 340 109 148 54 340 107 210 16

341 111 160 57 341 97 136 72 341 108 147 53 341 106 223 9

342 110 156 55 342 96 134 70 342 107 145 49 342 108 224 8

343 109 151 53 343 94 130 69 343 106 143 50 343 102 191 10

344 108 149 52 344 93 128 69 344 105 145 49 344 108 185 4

345 107 147 51 345 92 125 68 345 105 147 47 345 104 193 11

346 106 146 50 346 90 123 67 346 103 146 47 346 109 204 6

347 105 145 49 347 89 121 66 347 102 147 47 347 100 247 16

348 104 145 48 348 88 120 63 348 101 148 47 348 101 196 6

349 103 146 48 349 86 119 61 349 101 149 51 349 95 207 4

350 102 148 48 350 85 117 58 350 100 152 51 350 98 207 5

351 101 148 49 351 84 116 56 351 98 145 50 351 99 158 8

352 100 147 49 352 83 115 54 352 96 141 50 352 105 183 6

353 99 145 50 353 81 113 52 353 95 136 52 353 99 215 10

354 98 143 50 354 80 111 48 354 93 131 51 354 87 199 10

355 96 141 51 355 79 108 44 355 88 132 50 355 90 165 10

356 95 138 51 356 77 108 41 356 75 130 38 356 90 203 4

357 94 135 52 357 76 107 38 357 63 101 28 357 80 186 5

358 93 133 52 358 75 106 36 358 57 92 28 358 65 116 5

359 92 132 53 359 74 105 33 359 53 79 28 359 16 75 2

360 91 131 54 360 73 105 31 360 53 81 28 360 12 23 3

361 90 131 55 361 73 104 30 361 56 84 28 361 45 134 8

362 90 131 56 362 73 103 29 362 59 94 35 362 65 163 9

363 80 131 48 363 65 88 25 363 59 93 34 363 89 195 7

364 78 130 48 364 64 88 24 364 67 102 38 364 98 203 4

365 77 130 46 365 63 87 22 365 70 109 35 365 89 175 5

366 75 130 45 366 62 87 21 366 71 130 31 366 18 116 0

Page 97 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 122: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter 2009 pivot 8 age with charts incl prevalence 2 Nov 2011

Title 4d. Campylobacter cases by age and week of year.differences in seasonal distribution (normalised data).

Ro

w L

abel

s

0 y

ears

old

1 Y

EAR

OLD

2 Y

EAR

S O

LD

3 Y

EAR

S O

LD

4 Y

EAR

S O

LD

5 Y

EAR

S O

LD

6 Y

EAR

S O

LD

7 Y

EAR

S O

LD

8 Y

EAR

S O

LD

9 Y

EAR

S O

LD

10

YEA

RS

OLD

11

YEA

RS

OLD

12

YEA

RS

OLD

13

YEA

RS

OLD

14

YEA

RS

OLD

01 311 283 185 114 90 53 58 49 57 48 40 40 42 31 29

02 330 348 238 135 110 97 79 90 70 62 87 75 62 68 66

03 350 376 273 181 124 76 76 63 72 68 62 68 77 62 56

04 378 433 282 198 133 108 88 85 58 65 45 76 64 55 61

05 384 432 302 199 135 97 88 85 70 68 73 67 53 65 63

06 376 459 320 178 130 90 77 64 73 64 46 56 51 51 56

07 372 392 271 190 129 96 69 55 59 43 47 43 55 46 42

08 326 411 293 173 122 92 76 58 65 72 66 68 57 40 56

09 378 432 297 185 130 117 86 88 79 106 82 77 78 58 57

10 361 409 280 186 146 100 82 83 77 73 78 53 54 74 57

11 331 420 268 188 108 80 68 89 61 55 73 66 60 62 53

12 286 367 260 171 120 83 72 62 56 58 60 52 46 46 42

13 317 336 255 154 102 63 78 53 62 58 52 47 51 52 42

14 290 340 253 149 89 69 62 52 47 58 47 58 51 37 47

15 293 400 294 189 115 81 80 69 84 63 74 74 71 61 58

16 278 395 273 185 137 110 89 78 87 87 89 71 61 69 77

17 325 446 321 207 132 142 110 103 74 103 99 93 90 83 80

18 320 426 336 201 156 118 126 104 96 107 100 106 97 72 100

19 377 593 479 311 235 167 137 123 130 152 117 106 117 103 112

20 502 957 762 466 332 263 213 210 178 165 187 180 162 155 173

21 640 1208 979 601 459 288 244 239 213 220 209 182 173 196 182

22 492 923 692 405 314 231 216 169 167 135 161 117 108 97 120

23 615 1023 791 503 405 339 285 272 278 268 270 249 228 216 202

24 608 1022 768 448 330 309 241 233 209 225 228 218 199 181 190

25 585 898 684 425 307 276 232 172 202 171 196 180 160 173 175

26 543 850 609 386 277 218 169 184 165 180 165 156 147 160 156

27 550 727 513 366 267 202 166 188 143 162 158 170 146 137 140

28 456 690 499 352 232 209 159 150 128 150 152 117 154 136 144

29 478 657 421 282 228 155 139 148 126 133 143 150 120 137 134

30 448 582 436 283 201 161 119 127 103 106 110 125 89 89 92

31 411 523 450 299 200 158 148 141 154 158 124 125 116 111 106

32 414 537 381 238 220 162 145 161 161 138 151 135 113 124 129

33 450 540 419 267 205 190 157 151 132 162 135 126 120 118 146

34 459 548 383 258 201 184 168 136 162 152 150 159 135 123 124

35 377 458 353 221 185 160 118 143 114 128 126 116 99 107 103

36 464 553 380 300 249 187 171 147 177 145 159 147 145 158 140

37 417 512 386 237 193 155 131 140 124 125 135 130 127 138 120

38 441 508 383 233 154 115 136 111 109 101 100 94 117 96 100

39 404 484 361 228 149 124 102 88 100 97 98 80 84 89 85

40 447 465 347 225 137 107 114 81 86 100 91 97 73 66 81

41 405 467 350 234 140 114 101 89 85 83 95 79 89 71 76

42 440 465 317 198 134 125 90 93 82 85 67 64 63 61 71

43 481 459 315 199 135 100 105 79 72 59 74 65 59 47 52

44 395 528 396 213 156 142 117 98 112 90 93 100 80 105 110

45 434 497 356 217 173 109 93 115 99 97 105 98 88 97 95

46 447 467 323 214 156 131 110 86 78 82 74 82 74 67 72

47 478 441 307 186 139 102 85 78 69 83 71 84 78 71 54

48 408 460 305 184 149 99 95 71 88 82 81 98 67 70 60

49 416 407 287 178 119 86 81 66 60 68 61 69 66 63 60

50 390 395 255 183 97 90 68 70 62 47 44 54 65 52 54

51 343 360 218 131 98 94 61 48 49 59 39 40 36 29 50

52 241 208 110 65 41 47 39 33 37 22 25 22 23 20 22

Total 21462 27517 20016 12719 9225 7271 6219 5770 5501 5488 5414 5204 4840 4695 4772

Page 98 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 123: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

15

YEA

RS

OLD

16

YEA

RS

OLD

17

YEA

RS

OLD

18

YEA

RS

OLD

19

YEA

RS

OLD

20

YEA

RS

OLD

21

YEA

RS

OLD

22

YEA

RS

OLD

23

YEA

RS

OLD

24

YEA

RS

OLD

25

YEA

RS

OLD

26

YEA

RS

OLD

27

YEA

RS

OLD

28

YEA

RS

OLD

29

YEA

RS

OLD

30

YEA

RS

OLD

31

YEA

RS

OLD

34 62 83 100 124 152 173 178 225 236 221 178 191 202 232 202 169

63 90 97 149 159 208 208 240 232 244 263 238 243 206 236 214 222

64 86 82 123 161 192 235 227 236 212 221 242 257 216 211 235 187

49 60 103 124 180 197 223 202 264 263 232 264 254 228 228 243 206

56 83 102 143 174 216 205 230 243 258 261 242 243 271 248 228 204

54 86 97 154 178 215 234 249 278 255 240 281 256 254 249 232 225

55 64 95 144 190 234 208 210 249 219 244 233 245 236 214 215 231

69 97 114 153 177 213 214 234 256 262 253 260 256 238 250 240 223

91 85 110 154 176 201 237 254 234 241 297 251 250 269 242 237 215

65 74 131 164 179 204 214 239 271 258 260 235 228 251 223 254 205

61 79 99 133 169 196 240 211 222 256 271 220 259 260 213 256 249

44 74 92 122 147 162 200 203 191 231 220 197 214 251 231 226 210

47 56 85 118 147 151 168 176 202 223 248 226 197 218 196 191 224

58 72 109 103 167 199 221 200 223 201 219 205 236 218 208 191 188

62 86 120 115 175 178 200 234 219 252 237 233 268 195 232 224 203

72 86 105 142 185 222 198 211 208 257 264 248 201 243 256 207 246

76 103 138 157 189 246 228 235 280 251 297 291 263 270 245 242 270

73 99 137 154 216 230 268 277 284 284 267 277 264 287 270 277 262

100 103 135 195 226 272 302 298 302 324 297 316 280 302 278 293 311

150 163 173 273 244 337 363 366 355 372 395 376 370 453 415 421 396

156 184 212 290 334 359 360 386 400 416 439 460 448 481 429 464 451

120 122 173 236 275 332 319 365 369 398 363 381 422 367 364 412 364

240 201 240 298 331 437 364 456 456 474 492 516 460 532 493 501 482

176 158 198 283 337 363 393 459 451 429 512 497 547 518 432 487 431

162 145 206 248 355 386 386 422 466 451 499 510 492 461 459 461 483

161 170 211 257 320 357 416 450 476 492 546 524 497 531 481 464 501

137 168 220 278 316 396 424 460 458 470 432 459 462 499 448 454 482

139 166 262 303 404 362 432 415 487 486 471 486 507 473 493 487 457

140 197 230 310 375 356 396 390 459 481 446 415 470 484 461 421 410

130 185 220 315 347 356 418 388 459 410 436 441 441 435 414 412 402

124 178 240 324 357 380 394 426 425 461 442 466 443 418 417 399 356

152 195 261 288 378 402 421 434 448 438 457 405 437 456 411 416 430

132 220 255 314 349 371 400 434 439 474 457 463 448 431 434 431 393

132 217 233 290 349 369 391 432 408 438 446 435 449 418 442 382 364

114 156 238 245 286 307 339 366 357 367 353 385 357 340 325 334 317

169 203 266 283 334 372 384 401 354 412 445 421 391 377 390 427 393

154 138 240 247 342 359 375 405 392 450 413 398 399 398 413 370 364

93 110 171 222 295 400 401 387 393 419 415 389 389 412 365 350 367

82 105 135 216 306 360 345 369 355 387 393 396 414 362 367 345 339

90 104 149 190 253 351 355 349 378 346 399 388 390 390 371 351 338

89 105 164 191 263 351 369 318 341 405 365 349 359 329 367 346 347

78 86 131 190 254 283 335 299 341 357 325 377 356 311 344 350 324

89 73 100 168 225 263 277 293 345 308 371 302 298 308 324 339 287

129 108 148 196 231 253 277 311 319 300 320 351 348 322 306 334 322

106 121 149 213 244 278 258 318 281 310 340 343 333 309 309 321 298

85 105 127 183 246 274 293 309 312 295 305 307 320 351 303 299 301

66 85 133 173 231 286 257 272 251 315 291 296 294 295 318 281 278

64 82 110 152 221 264 276 268 311 299 285 300 306 332 334 276 311

59 86 116 151 201 228 250 251 281 294 292 286 304 281 275 272 249

62 82 104 162 191 220 242 268 281 276 260 252 286 277 256 287 228

60 82 85 132 177 187 224 216 224 257 252 244 265 265 245 262 253

35 27 55 79 101 116 136 134 159 174 163 158 149 154 153 143 150

5068 6072 7989 10347 12791 14603 15446 16125 16850 17388 17632 17413 17456 17385 16820 16706 16118

Page 99 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 124: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

32

YEA

RS

OLD

33

YEA

RS

OLD

34

YEA

RS

OLD

35

YEA

RS

OLD

36

YEA

RS

OLD

37

YEA

RS

OLD

38

YEA

RS

OLD

39

YEA

RS

OLD

40

YEA

RS

OLD

41

YEA

RS

OLD

42

YEA

RS

OLD

43

YEA

RS

OLD

44

YEA

RS

OLD

45

YEA

RS

OLD

46

YEA

RS

OLD

47

YEA

RS

OLD

48

YEA

RS

OLD

189 193 167 182 172 153 153 139 146 164 150 141 145 148 163 174 143

222 185 188 198 200 197 179 163 166 169 181 166 158 162 175 155 151

213 198 223 195 190 160 175 175 169 163 160 188 160 153 168 160 137

220 236 196 162 243 197 189 179 187 179 173 178 164 172 185 171 155

227 242 224 209 185 208 190 189 216 181 188 186 169 170 163 172 190

213 200 229 213 190 196 196 193 181 191 207 181 177 203 165 199 176

212 213 192 201 198 196 151 193 190 183 201 168 185 177 180 170 158

213 213 207 210 225 198 222 193 195 187 165 196 179 186 171 196 197

249 208 208 219 227 238 196 199 211 192 219 210 197 196 221 208 200

243 196 230 210 218 192 210 201 211 204 188 190 192 179 202 188 216

209 231 205 205 186 179 186 183 212 205 181 178 190 186 191 178 207

198 195 201 154 193 200 175 180 162 172 166 181 187 176 159 165 184

181 204 178 171 183 152 172 167 142 159 156 189 145 166 140 184 148

226 214 187 166 190 174 167 152 178 164 149 173 169 176 155 166 177

218 188 199 198 224 189 181 160 186 190 170 174 170 182 168 207 168

225 213 199 201 187 226 216 183 208 176 167 183 193 181 178 169 189

262 224 220 211 199 218 207 217 230 220 233 214 194 210 204 211 198

255 246 229 212 210 221 217 234 240 203 218 207 216 245 206 218 191

305 273 267 254 246 207 276 225 245 240 228 229 246 236 265 215 223

374 370 329 345 345 354 325 319 346 304 307 315 317 314 284 296 305

437 429 369 367 331 394 369 351 381 342 384 352 361 364 361 378 362

393 356 320 344 347 319 283 293 325 307 295 284 278 291 300 303 289

435 481 471 462 463 443 379 421 438 428 413 459 406 389 400 392 410

460 458 491 415 427 418 410 408 447 425 412 414 444 355 388 432 388

466 485 432 461 403 442 393 384 371 412 436 399 366 385 384 379 380

477 421 428 450 466 429 432 415 393 383 376 359 405 376 374 375 373

445 456 427 460 420 373 387 357 409 416 371 384 341 345 369 361 361

433 398 389 462 427 384 352 378 388 389 379 370 381 362 384 328 320

421 392 397 370 381 368 355 379 362 338 329 355 338 338 337 343 330

382 351 392 353 367 311 372 328 323 333 328 339 348 340 294 348 303

401 367 415 388 357 369 344 379 362 318 321 332 323 310 355 363 362

349 388 400 424 363 382 357 348 335 368 386 334 371 348 331 324 315

385 369 407 377 370 360 374 401 333 297 336 352 307 364 395 339 330

382 386 359 366 372 347 344 334 371 321 366 346 325 364 321 325 332

369 323 320 335 312 312 290 327 314 318 293 264 286 311 267 305 267

355 393 379 389 334 394 382 342 374 382 351 346 358 315 342 345 326

366 370 354 355 337 310 304 324 348 318 368 328 292 308 290 269 286

339 342 322 298 294 312 298 310 329 308 291 284 297 310 306 286 320

333 327 303 357 293 305 293 302 285 293 265 281 272 286 269 280 267

330 333 316 318 311 312 275 275 266 269 280 277 283 292 274 286 286

307 318 292 281 274 286 278 303 268 270 266 258 284 250 281 256 302

334 304 269 296 276 270 226 255 262 262 287 280 243 283 278 273 256

310 272 257 288 246 227 277 232 240 233 258 216 268 239 234 230 273

306 291 271 275 265 283 270 275 294 265 258 277 271 267 253 284 300

293 260 264 273 290 249 259 263 237 246 263 248 265 261 264 225 267

291 263 266 232 267 250 244 252 221 241 248 245 237 233 240 237 234

296 231 265 245 235 262 271 263 244 242 210 221 274 216 250 226 213

277 269 237 254 279 223 222 207 221 224 225 267 261 218 232 254 217

244 229 260 230 254 234 226 211 243 218 214 216 217 189 215 204 234

254 236 218 235 200 211 230 184 239 225 232 227 211 198 197 202 209

238 218 222 198 205 191 214 192 191 163 181 179 174 171 166 197 199

167 135 156 105 117 122 131 108 130 127 133 146 96 109 110 98 98

15929 15293 14946 14779 14494 14147 13824 13645 13965 13527 13562 13486 13336 13205 13204 13249 13122

Page 100 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 125: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

49

YEA

RS

OLD

50

YEA

RS

OLD

51

YEA

RS

OLD

52

YEA

RS

OLD

53

YEA

RS

OLD

54

YEA

RS

OLD

55

YEA

RS

OLD

56

YEA

RS

OLD

57

YEA

RS

OLD

58

YEA

RS

OLD

59

YEA

RS

OLD

60

YEA

RS

OLD

61

YEA

RS

OLD

62

YEA

RS

OLD

63

YEA

RS

OLD

64

YEA

RS

OLD

65

YEA

RS

OLD

66

YEA

RS

OLD

158 151 164 142 145 148 119 125 103 101 118 113 121 97 109 90 95 101

154 145 161 150 179 130 135 147 106 111 120 107 116 104 101 87 83 92

154 139 159 163 147 139 145 129 123 136 137 119 106 123 91 99 98 103

189 193 168 166 169 164 155 148 144 137 117 148 116 125 109 115 102 102

182 186 171 160 168 156 146 151 151 133 118 134 132 114 110 104 99 111

162 175 185 174 187 154 158 158 155 169 151 129 125 134 99 119 138 100

193 195 164 177 161 140 157 140 126 135 132 141 157 129 105 118 104 110

167 192 168 185 171 177 179 159 157 163 160 139 142 123 137 123 120 111

182 216 184 198 192 173 184 170 164 171 164 138 136 139 126 126 115 126

193 192 173 175 182 189 163 161 161 172 142 166 163 119 125 111 139 105

154 210 174 173 176 184 147 138 168 151 140 140 149 122 124 139 116 86

179 159 181 186 154 187 150 157 161 137 135 135 149 116 122 106 124 102

186 200 151 171 163 159 144 187 153 130 146 159 122 125 132 111 105 115

175 155 173 171 179 142 158 154 148 154 127 155 126 112 113 103 112 100

148 176 187 155 156 160 145 144 154 143 126 149 128 119 122 118 125 112

169 197 155 184 181 146 181 170 147 164 120 145 146 124 121 121 114 84

194 179 189 194 185 206 176 169 160 158 133 156 150 123 108 125 109 125

197 201 199 176 175 184 173 175 196 190 141 170 160 142 154 150 99 96

218 224 219 230 244 221 203 175 175 188 148 184 175 137 156 146 158 137

258 301 303 299 280 282 257 262 237 230 222 243 238 234 228 179 181 181

347 307 327 316 324 309 309 284 308 300 249 279 262 276 236 217 206 210

293 264 298 265 305 290 261 245 254 245 222 222 205 204 204 183 185 194

348 384 378 382 332 391 318 348 349 314 305 290 278 279 220 236 245 213

374 328 336 337 354 344 313 325 294 315 297 267 275 281 250 261 220 236

385 373 329 350 358 312 302 309 319 294 289 285 296 235 256 252 249 230

393 357 337 329 403 329 364 321 315 338 290 285 265 248 281 242 245 226

381 349 377 360 327 342 322 294 314 327 295 301 282 227 258 260 249 221

319 366 317 357 333 317 326 305 310 269 252 276 257 262 260 247 210 205

328 341 330 311 319 308 290 259 301 235 283 267 222 233 216 211 197 186

302 313 323 292 294 279 291 258 271 237 275 232 237 188 217 197 177 183

315 320 283 295 295 270 274 247 244 236 257 227 241 194 208 180 188 193

339 307 310 295 258 269 321 244 227 265 243 212 214 213 198 190 171 172

346 315 337 298 273 309 286 278 254 282 237 250 215 195 197 202 196 158

295 302 318 294 268 235 272 268 256 243 249 225 213 188 195 162 175 179

245 264 270 252 244 242 242 216 218 198 204 184 175 177 154 142 128 139

282 297 282 279 277 258 279 280 242 229 239 223 208 169 164 165 170 167

310 271 257 266 242 252 241 252 256 224 197 215 180 170 193 158 158 156

284 266 279 269 256 253 281 260 233 241 238 246 207 211 183 197 173 152

299 313 276 270 300 251 247 280 262 255 254 252 175 191 195 199 172 146

288 259 263 256 262 289 260 220 252 238 236 216 207 196 177 180 145 159

252 273 251 266 270 269 238 246 239 245 215 201 205 195 171 190 156 137

281 237 237 279 263 255 237 241 254 213 210 235 232 195 207 181 158 157

232 259 235 249 220 247 230 206 236 212 220 230 189 194 202 176 156 167

247 253 265 237 245 229 199 206 240 236 221 213 183 168 153 163 181 132

258 252 231 227 236 233 220 212 210 207 194 201 195 156 142 132 159 158

212 229 225 233 216 213 208 188 222 192 185 176 167 163 169 163 168 142

251 232 235 236 211 210 198 200 193 210 180 197 178 177 150 139 129 152

239 224 218 217 233 249 218 205 217 185 177 169 170 159 150 172 166 133

191 219 183 223 206 202 189 183 191 197 197 180 148 169 169 128 139 122

201 203 184 204 180 202 171 187 192 160 160 152 157 151 134 140 134 126

190 161 156 186 157 208 177 170 161 157 145 154 148 148 123 131 130 114

105 118 111 114 111 96 92 93 128 83 75 97 95 69 71 71 85 72

12744 12742 12386 12373 12166 11903 11451 11049 11051 10655 10087 10129 9538 8842 8595 8257 7956 7536

Page 101 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 126: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

67

YEA

RS

OLD

68

YEA

RS

OLD

69

YEA

RS

OLD

70

YEA

RS

OLD

71

YEA

RS

OLD

72

YEA

RS

OLD

73

YEA

RS

OLD

74

YEA

RS

OLD

75

YEA

RS

OLD

76

YEA

RS

OLD

77

YEA

RS

OLD

78

YEA

RS

OLD

79

YEA

RS

OLD

80

YEA

RS

OLD

81

YEA

RS

OLD

82

YEA

RS

OLD

83

YEA

RS

OLD

84

YEA

RS

OLD

85

YEA

RS

OLD

86

YEA

RS

OLD

87 71 91 67 80 54 66 70 60 48 53 45 45 45 34 26 30 30 22 22

72 72 64 71 82 65 75 60 71 43 41 49 51 38 34 38 30 30 29 21

103 90 84 101 87 80 79 82 52 62 51 51 47 48 28 30 27 26 23 18

119 95 82 74 99 75 73 85 66 60 56 52 40 41 42 35 30 27 16 17

118 103 81 83 92 77 84 73 67 65 52 37 50 38 40 34 30 33 30 14

109 83 108 91 83 81 82 73 73 65 56 52 50 45 39 38 39 23 28 17

104 102 94 124 92 97 71 72 67 75 69 51 50 50 46 34 28 33 26 21

106 118 87 89 88 92 77 63 73 58 68 53 50 51 44 42 32 42 27 19

124 106 110 80 72 99 67 81 69 63 65 53 50 41 29 31 33 20 23 23

121 108 102 102 102 88 69 69 67 63 52 61 58 41 42 32 34 29 21 20

105 102 105 94 96 88 66 82 65 63 56 54 61 44 33 40 40 44 18 20

105 91 99 107 93 73 73 64 69 52 48 47 41 55 32 32 29 22 20 25

93 105 83 94 67 72 73 78 56 53 52 57 42 37 34 25 24 29 25 19

112 108 93 81 76 96 76 74 61 59 57 51 47 46 47 23 36 29 17 18

105 100 82 102 74 65 74 72 68 57 66 50 49 52 48 20 29 24 22 17

108 91 92 88 87 61 49 59 59 64 57 50 52 45 45 35 21 23 32 28

122 99 104 99 89 90 73 70 59 59 58 54 51 54 48 54 21 29 23 29

118 114 114 100 98 83 80 91 64 73 74 59 59 51 47 52 34 23 26 27

146 111 112 103 94 97 83 81 71 72 59 75 46 54 43 52 30 36 31 22

170 177 152 152 121 151 107 114 123 97 106 81 92 68 59 61 52 45 46 33

214 194 192 198 162 178 156 140 128 135 114 106 93 75 67 72 48 47 41 35

189 180 171 163 154 150 136 133 122 103 104 92 74 78 62 46 48 39 31 26

205 196 206 205 182 165 157 143 133 120 102 108 110 95 79 79 71 52 39 41

213 185 207 206 178 144 152 144 139 127 138 117 87 89 82 71 57 53 39 33

213 206 206 215 175 181 168 148 146 154 113 102 118 92 86 59 72 66 52 39

213 215 194 190 188 149 158 131 139 125 95 108 100 87 79 71 60 53 49 42

225 173 211 191 190 174 152 136 123 143 89 109 113 83 84 74 66 54 54 28

196 177 186 186 183 143 156 134 127 146 121 103 100 89 83 63 58 52 41 45

197 157 184 172 157 163 146 144 123 109 94 98 95 81 73 70 53 47 42 22

160 201 176 151 154 115 116 127 129 98 102 85 81 67 87 58 60 40 36 29

153 176 157 144 141 123 133 121 92 119 85 81 82 76 68 66 56 44 42 34

177 174 131 148 151 150 126 138 111 101 94 105 75 82 69 65 48 56 29 34

173 144 152 150 141 115 103 103 85 104 103 99 73 81 69 56 39 41 28 24

154 149 140 110 110 110 111 116 104 105 72 88 63 54 66 35 33 43 38 35

120 105 105 105 105 106 107 91 99 85 77 59 59 62 49 47 37 30 24 30

131 138 140 142 116 103 104 109 120 92 78 78 76 68 57 50 60 48 38 40

135 139 117 122 104 113 129 89 112 96 77 68 78 60 66 48 53 39 33 30

156 161 141 124 132 138 118 104 98 89 75 69 58 75 64 56 38 44 41 32

148 161 133 139 128 117 112 113 99 79 78 84 68 76 70 69 47 42 31 28

131 143 120 110 148 133 137 104 92 104 77 83 57 59 54 55 37 33 26 34

155 137 139 158 129 108 113 90 99 97 76 77 67 63 55 51 35 48 36 27

153 142 130 131 130 101 92 107 111 94 87 78 71 60 50 45 37 36 38 24

136 135 148 120 148 119 108 109 95 78 83 82 67 64 52 35 34 39 27 29

136 130 148 131 124 118 104 110 115 94 85 86 68 70 62 47 42 44 42 31

144 156 134 140 115 111 104 62 92 91 84 65 61 69 70 56 58 39 40 31

119 136 108 118 134 112 94 94 77 96 93 70 56 53 58 55 37 46 31 32

112 139 116 126 110 120 89 79 103 91 82 82 77 70 46 47 43 41 22 23

141 138 145 117 133 106 92 88 96 84 71 67 72 64 56 39 42 51 36 24

111 126 112 118 110 107 93 105 86 90 82 77 74 53 59 55 53 40 42 22

139 126 109 102 104 102 87 98 80 57 77 60 53 57 36 43 36 31 28 21

99 132 86 89 92 88 82 97 66 58 65 66 53 57 48 40 34 28 29 28

73 66 63 63 52 56 48 46 59 46 47 48 36 27 32 27 22 24 12 10

7268 6983 6646 6486 6152 5702 5280 5066 4760 4461 4016 3782 3446 3180 2852 2484 2143 1987 1642 1393

Page 102 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 127: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

87

YEA

RS

OLD

88

YEA

RS

OLD

89

YEA

RS

OLD

90

YEA

RS

OLD

91

YEA

RS

OLD

92

YEA

RS

OLD

93

YEA

RS

OLD

94

YEA

RS

OLD

95

YEA

RS

OLD

96

YEA

RS

OLD

97

YEA

RS

OLD

98

YEA

RS

OLD

99

YEA

RS

OLD

>99

YEA

RS

OLD

18 15 11 5 10 8 6 3 5 4 3 0 2 0

22 6 9 13 5 3 7 4 7 3 2 1 1 5

23 22 12 10 4 6 7 4 6 1 2 1 4 0

11 11 15 7 8 3 5 2 6 1 3 1 2 1

18 16 7 12 13 10 6 8 3 1 0 1 4 1

16 19 18 13 10 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 2 4

13 16 6 17 7 6 7 8 6 4 5 2 1 0

10 11 10 5 12 7 9 7 4 5 3 3 2 2

12 15 11 11 8 7 6 4 4 5 0 0 1 2

15 19 8 7 9 6 9 7 3 1 3 0 2 2

22 19 11 9 7 10 5 6 3 2 3 1 1 1

14 14 11 13 8 6 7 4 4 1 0 0 5 5

16 11 5 7 7 13 4 7 3 3 1 2 2 1

14 11 5 13 9 6 9 6 3 1 6 1 1 2

22 14 7 10 7 13 1 9 6 5 2 0 2 1

19 16 12 8 8 9 5 3 1 2 1 1 1 1

17 6 10 7 9 5 3 5 4 3 3 1 1 1

14 12 9 10 9 6 6 5 6 3 2 2 0 1

20 18 11 8 11 5 9 4 1 1 1 0 2 0

27 24 18 13 17 9 8 5 6 1 4 1 0 3

36 31 22 24 14 16 15 7 8 4 0 2 5 3

31 23 22 14 5 9 12 7 8 8 3 1 0 3

29 23 26 27 13 22 7 7 10 4 4 1 3 2

29 24 23 14 18 11 15 6 9 6 4 2 5 5

31 31 30 17 11 12 16 7 12 8 4 3 5 10

27 19 21 15 12 11 7 15 7 7 1 2 2 6

35 21 12 7 23 10 6 9 6 5 3 0 1 4

30 24 16 12 16 6 15 6 6 6 1 0 3 5

36 22 20 22 13 15 8 8 9 6 3 2 1 2

30 26 16 17 20 10 8 9 7 2 1 0 2 7

27 9 19 8 15 14 9 3 5 5 3 2 6 6

27 19 17 12 10 11 3 6 5 5 6 4 2 2

21 17 22 16 14 8 10 3 6 4 1 2 1 2

20 17 19 10 11 14 7 9 4 2 3 1 0 4

29 17 6 14 8 8 8 5 4 6 0 1 2 2

22 14 16 19 13 9 7 8 5 6 1 2 1 5

32 18 13 17 7 13 7 7 11 3 0 0 0 3

18 13 14 16 13 7 7 6 8 5 1 0 1 3

20 22 12 12 3 4 10 6 6 4 3 1 2 5

27 25 20 14 11 5 14 8 10 9 2 1 1 3

17 19 12 10 10 8 6 3 4 1 2 1 0 1

22 20 16 12 14 6 4 6 3 7 4 0 0 3

29 25 16 12 11 15 4 5 6 3 1 3 1 2

28 20 16 9 4 6 12 10 7 4 2 1 1 3

15 22 13 14 11 8 5 3 5 6 2 2 2 1

32 15 15 12 13 5 6 6 4 6 4 4 3 4

29 12 18 17 12 9 10 6 7 3 3 1 0 2

26 17 11 10 7 7 13 6 3 1 4 2 2 1

23 13 20 11 7 13 5 4 2 2 2 1 3 1

24 12 10 10 10 8 6 4 5 5 5 0 0 4

14 13 7 12 8 8 8 5 6 4 0 1 1 0

15 12 15 3 4 7 2 2 7 4 2 0 0 0

1174 910 741 637 539 460 397 310 292 203 122 62 92 137

Page 103 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 128: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File Campylobacter April 2010 charts 15 seasonality

Title 4e. Seasonal distribution of cases over and under ten years of age (normalised data).

Row Labels 0 to 9 years 10 + years

1 0.16 0.15

2 0.15 0.15

3 0.15 0.15

4 0.15 0.15

5 0.15 0.15

6 0.15 0.15

7 0.15 0.15

8 0.15 0.15

9 0.15 0.15

10 0.15 0.15

11 0.15 0.15

12 0.15 0.15

13 0.15 0.14

14 0.16 0.14

15 0.15 0.14

16 0.16 0.15

17 0.16 0.15

18 0.16 0.15

19 0.16 0.15

20 0.17 0.15

21 0.17 0.15

22 0.18 0.16

23 0.17 0.16

24 0.17 0.16

25 0.18 0.16

26 0.18 0.16

27 0.17 0.16

28 0.17 0.17

29 0.17 0.17

30 0.17 0.17

31 0.18 0.17

32 0.18 0.17

33 0.17 0.17

34 0.18 0.17

35 0.17 0.17

36 0.17 0.17

37 0.17 0.17

38 0.17 0.17

39 0.18 0.17

40 0.18 0.17

41 0.18 0.17

42 0.18 0.17

43 0.18 0.16

44 0.18 0.16

45 0.17 0.16

46 0.17 0.17

47 0.17 0.17

48 0.17 0.17

49 0.17 0.17

50 0.17 0.17

51 0.17 0.17

52 0.17 0.18

53 0.18 0.18

54 0.18 0.18

55 0.19 0.18

56 0.19 0.18

57 0.19 0.18

58 0.19 0.18

59 0.19 0.18

60 0.18 0.19

61 0.19 0.19

62 0.18 0.19

Page 104 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 129: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

63 0.18 0.19

64 0.18 0.18

65 0.18 0.18

66 0.19 0.18

67 0.19 0.18

68 0.19 0.18

69 0.19 0.18

70 0.19 0.17

71 0.19 0.17

72 0.18 0.17

73 0.17 0.17

74 0.17 0.17

75 0.17 0.17

76 0.16 0.17

77 0.16 0.17

78 0.16 0.17

79 0.16 0.16

80 0.16 0.16

81 0.17 0.16

82 0.16 0.16

83 0.16 0.16

84 0.16 0.16

85 0.16 0.16

86 0.16 0.16

87 0.17 0.16

88 0.17 0.16

89 0.17 0.16

90 0.18 0.16

91 0.17 0.16

92 0.17 0.16

93 0.17 0.16

94 0.16 0.17

95 0.16 0.17

96 0.16 0.17

97 0.17 0.17

98 0.17 0.17

99 0.17 0.17

100 0.18 0.17

101 0.18 0.18

102 0.18 0.18

103 0.18 0.18

104 0.18 0.18

105 0.18 0.19

106 0.19 0.19

107 0.19 0.19

108 0.19 0.19

109 0.20 0.20

110 0.20 0.20

111 0.20 0.20

112 0.20 0.20

113 0.21 0.20

114 0.21 0.20

115 0.21 0.20

116 0.21 0.21

117 0.21 0.21

118 0.21 0.21

119 0.22 0.21

120 0.22 0.21

121 0.23 0.21

122 0.23 0.22

123 0.24 0.22

124 0.24 0.23

125 0.26 0.23

126 0.26 0.24

127 0.29 0.25

128 0.30 0.26

129 0.32 0.27

Page 105 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 130: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

130 0.33 0.28

131 0.35 0.28

132 0.37 0.29

133 0.38 0.30

134 0.40 0.31

135 0.42 0.32

136 0.44 0.33

137 0.46 0.34

138 0.48 0.35

139 0.50 0.36

140 0.52 0.37

141 0.54 0.38

142 0.56 0.39

143 0.58 0.39

144 0.59 0.40

145 0.60 0.41

146 0.61 0.42

147 0.62 0.42

148 0.62 0.43

149 0.62 0.44

150 0.61 0.45

151 0.61 0.45

152 0.61 0.46

153 0.60 0.47

154 0.59 0.48

155 0.59 0.48

156 0.59 0.49

157 0.60 0.49

158 0.61 0.49

159 0.61 0.49

160 0.61 0.49

161 0.61 0.49

162 0.61 0.48

163 0.60 0.48

164 0.58 0.47

165 0.56 0.47

166 0.55 0.47

167 0.55 0.46

168 0.54 0.46

169 0.52 0.46

170 0.52 0.45

171 0.52 0.45

172 0.51 0.45

173 0.50 0.45

174 0.48 0.45

175 0.47 0.45

176 0.47 0.45

177 0.45 0.45

178 0.44 0.45

179 0.43 0.45

180 0.44 0.45

181 0.44 0.45

182 0.43 0.45

183 0.43 0.44

184 0.43 0.44

185 0.42 0.44

186 0.41 0.44

187 0.40 0.44

188 0.39 0.44

189 0.39 0.44

190 0.38 0.43

191 0.38 0.43

192 0.38 0.42

193 0.38 0.42

194 0.38 0.41

195 0.37 0.41

196 0.37 0.40

Page 106 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 131: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

197 0.36 0.40

198 0.35 0.39

199 0.34 0.39

200 0.33 0.39

201 0.32 0.38

202 0.32 0.38

203 0.30 0.38

204 0.31 0.37

205 0.30 0.37

206 0.31 0.37

207 0.31 0.37

208 0.31 0.37

209 0.32 0.37

210 0.32 0.36

211 0.33 0.36

212 0.34 0.36

213 0.34 0.36

214 0.34 0.37

215 0.34 0.37

216 0.34 0.37

217 0.33 0.37

218 0.32 0.38

219 0.32 0.38

220 0.32 0.38

221 0.32 0.38

222 0.33 0.38

223 0.33 0.38

224 0.33 0.38

225 0.34 0.38

226 0.34 0.38

227 0.33 0.38

228 0.34 0.37

229 0.33 0.37

230 0.32 0.37

231 0.32 0.37

232 0.31 0.37

233 0.31 0.37

234 0.31 0.37

235 0.30 0.37

236 0.32 0.36

237 0.32 0.36

238 0.32 0.36

239 0.33 0.35

240 0.33 0.35

241 0.34 0.35

242 0.34 0.34

243 0.33 0.34

244 0.33 0.34

245 0.33 0.34

246 0.33 0.34

247 0.32 0.34

248 0.31 0.34

249 0.31 0.33

250 0.31 0.33

251 0.32 0.33

252 0.31 0.33

253 0.31 0.33

254 0.30 0.33

255 0.30 0.33

256 0.28 0.33

257 0.28 0.33

258 0.27 0.33

259 0.27 0.32

260 0.27 0.32

261 0.28 0.32

262 0.28 0.32

263 0.28 0.32

Page 107 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 132: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

264 0.28 0.32

265 0.27 0.32

266 0.26 0.32

267 0.26 0.31

268 0.25 0.31

269 0.25 0.31

270 0.25 0.31

271 0.25 0.30

272 0.25 0.30

273 0.25 0.30

274 0.24 0.30

275 0.24 0.30

276 0.24 0.30

277 0.23 0.30

278 0.23 0.30

279 0.24 0.30

280 0.24 0.30

281 0.23 0.29

282 0.23 0.29

283 0.23 0.29

284 0.23 0.29

285 0.23 0.29

286 0.23 0.28

287 0.23 0.28

288 0.23 0.28

289 0.23 0.28

290 0.23 0.27

291 0.23 0.27

292 0.23 0.27

293 0.23 0.27

294 0.22 0.26

295 0.22 0.26

296 0.22 0.26

297 0.22 0.26

298 0.22 0.26

299 0.22 0.26

300 0.23 0.26

301 0.24 0.26

302 0.24 0.26

303 0.25 0.26

304 0.25 0.27

305 0.27 0.27

306 0.26 0.27

307 0.27 0.27

308 0.26 0.27

309 0.27 0.26

310 0.26 0.26

311 0.26 0.26

312 0.24 0.26

313 0.24 0.25

314 0.23 0.25

315 0.23 0.25

316 0.22 0.25

317 0.23 0.24

318 0.23 0.24

319 0.23 0.24

320 0.23 0.24

321 0.23 0.24

322 0.23 0.24

323 0.22 0.24

324 0.21 0.24

325 0.21 0.24

326 0.21 0.24

327 0.22 0.23

328 0.22 0.23

329 0.22 0.23

330 0.22 0.23

Page 108 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 133: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

331 0.23 0.23

332 0.22 0.23

333 0.22 0.23

334 0.21 0.22

335 0.21 0.22

336 0.21 0.22

337 0.21 0.22

338 0.20 0.21

339 0.20 0.21

340 0.19 0.21

341 0.18 0.21

342 0.18 0.21

343 0.17 0.20

344 0.17 0.20

345 0.17 0.20

346 0.17 0.19

347 0.17 0.19

348 0.18 0.19

349 0.17 0.18

350 0.17 0.18

351 0.17 0.18

352 0.16 0.18

353 0.15 0.17

354 0.15 0.17

355 0.14 0.17

356 0.14 0.16

357 0.15 0.16

358 0.15 0.16

359 0.15 0.16

360 0.14 0.16

361 0.14 0.16

362 0.14 0.16

363 0.15 0.16

364 0.14 0.16

365 0.15 0.16

366 0.13 0.14

Page 109 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 134: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File LSOA_withpop 11 reduced with popn & IMD charts

Title

i. Campylobacter cases per 100,000 in 2009 by population density and completeness of postcode reporting.

Population density SHA's with 90% or more postcodes SHA's with less than 90% postcodes

1 to 156 148 90

156 to 707 144 82

708 to 1544 124 80

1544 to 2400 119 77

2400 to 3259 111 75

3259 to 4094 120 72

4094 to 4985 110 71

4985 to 6074 103 65

6074 to 8210 104 59

8211 to 94084 82 42

Grand Total 118 70

Page 110 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 135: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

File LSOA_withpop 11 reduced with popn & IMD charts

Title j. Campylobacter prevalence per 100,000 per year and the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score.

Differences between 2007 and 2009 reflect improving postcode reporting as cases cannot be included in the figures

without a postcode.

IMD SCORE 2007 2008 2009

0 to 9 73 76 95

10 to 19 68 73 89

20 to 29 57 60 76

30 to 39 50 52 67

40 to 49 42 48 59

50 to 59 44 47 55

60 to 69 43 45 56

70 to 79 41 36 50

Page 111 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 136: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

STROBE 2007 (v4) Statement—Checklist of items that should be included in reports of cohort studies (This is a descriptive study)

Section/Topic Item

# Recommendation Reported on page #

Title and abstract 1 (a) Indicate the study’s design with a commonly used term in the title or the abstract 2

(b) Provide in the abstract an informative and balanced summary of what was done and what was found 2

Introduction

Background/rationale 2 Explain the scientific background and rationale for the investigation being reported 4

Objectives 3 State specific objectives, including any prespecified hypotheses 2, 4

Methods

Study design 4 Present key elements of study design early in the paper 4

Setting 5 Describe the setting, locations, and relevant dates, including periods of recruitment, exposure, follow-up, and data

collection

4

Participants 6 (a) Give the eligibility criteria, and the sources and methods of selection of participants. Describe methods of follow-up 4

(b) For matched studies, give matching criteria and number of exposed and unexposed NA

Variables 7 Clearly define all outcomes, exposures, predictors, potential confounders, and effect modifiers. Give diagnostic criteria, if

applicable

8-10

Data sources/

measurement

8* For each variable of interest, give sources of data and details of methods of assessment (measurement). Describe

comparability of assessment methods if there is more than one group

4

Bias 9 Describe any efforts to address potential sources of bias 6

Study size 10 Explain how the study size was arrived at 4

Quantitative variables 11 Explain how quantitative variables were handled in the analyses. If applicable, describe which groupings were chosen and

why

NA

Statistical methods 12 (a) Describe all statistical methods, including those used to control for confounding NA

(b) Describe any methods used to examine subgroups and interactions NA

(c) Explain how missing data were addressed NA

(d) If applicable, explain how loss to follow-up was addressed NA

(e) Describe any sensitivity analyses NA

Results

Page 112 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

Page 137: BMJ Open...Clinical presentation. Routine surveillance of 994,791 Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2009 showed they were predominantly from gastrointestinal sites (99.65%) and

For peer review only

Participants 13* (a) Report numbers of individuals at each stage of study—eg numbers potentially eligible, examined for eligibility, confirmed

eligible, included in the study, completing follow-up, and analysed

NA

(b) Give reasons for non-participation at each stage NA

(c) Consider use of a flow diagram NA

Descriptive data 14* (a) Give characteristics of study participants (eg demographic, clinical, social) and information on exposures and potential

confounders

5-8

(b) Indicate number of participants with missing data for each variable of interest 7

(c) Summarise follow-up time (eg, average and total amount) NA

Outcome data 15* Report numbers of outcome events or summary measures over time 5

Main results 16 (a) Give unadjusted estimates and, if applicable, confounder-adjusted estimates and their precision (eg, 95% confidence

interval). Make clear which confounders were adjusted for and why they were included

NA

(b) Report category boundaries when continuous variables were categorized 7-8

(c) If relevant, consider translating estimates of relative risk into absolute risk for a meaningful time period 7-8

Other analyses 17 Report other analyses done—eg analyses of subgroups and interactions, and sensitivity analyses 7-8

Discussion

Key results 18 Summarise key results with reference to study objectives 8-10

Limitations

Interpretation 20 Give a cautious overall interpretation of results considering objectives, limitations, multiplicity of analyses, results from

similar studies, and other relevant evidence

8-10

Generalisability 21 Discuss the generalisability (external validity) of the study results 8-10

Other information

Funding 22 Give the source of funding and the role of the funders for the present study and, if applicable, for the original study on

which the present article is based

NA

*Give information separately for cases and controls in case-control studies and, if applicable, for exposed and unexposed groups in cohort and cross-sectional studies.

Note: An Explanation and Elaboration article discusses each checklist item and gives methodological background and published examples of transparent reporting. The STROBE

checklist is best used in conjunction with this article (freely available on the Web sites of PLoS Medicine at http://www.plosmedicine.org/, Annals of Internal Medicine at

http://www.annals.org/, and Epidemiology at http://www.epidem.com/). Information on the STROBE Initiative is available at www.strobe-statement.org.

Page 113 of 113

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960