Bottom-up Exploration of Structural Transformation Lessons from a Foresight Exercise on the Future of Innovation Philine Warnke, Elna Schirrmeister Fraunhofer

Bottom-up Exploration of Structural TransformationLessons from a Foresight Exercise on the Future of Innovation

Philine Warnke, Elna SchirrmeisterFraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe

INFU presentation // SLIDE 1

How to explore systemic change arising from within systems?

Methodological Challenge


social innovation, relational innovation, public sector innovation, low-tech innovation, service innovation, user driven innovation, everyday innovation, socio-technical innovation

“Grand challenge driven innovation” ...

The very notion of innovation is shifting ...

Future innovation landscape may function according to a different logic all-together

Case in point: Innovation


Need for „mode2 foresight“

INFU Project: www.innovation-futures.orgFinanced by the European Commission, SSH activity line

ForesightConsortium:• Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), coordinatior• Fraunhofer ISI • Solutioning Design Scenarios• Z_Punkt the Foresight company

Methodology – four measures to underpin openness for systemic change

I. Bottom-up approachII. Visual inspirationIII. Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensionsIV. Extended openness for diversity (prolonged divergence)

INFU Project and Methodology


http://www.innovation-futures.org/

I. Bottom-up approach – Overview (1)


I. Bottom-up approach – Signal scanning (2)



I. Bottom-up approach – Amplification of signals (3)

Transfers to other sectors, to other user groups... e.g. from fashion to furniture industry; elderly people instead of kids or vice versa...

Generalisation as the mainstream practice... e.g. what if active users involvement in innovation processes would become the default…

Radicalisation of the principle... e.g. what if user involvement in innovation process developed into an innovation actively developed by the demand...

Selection of signals Amplification of selected signals

The bottom-up approach was successful…• Diverse signals were considered• The signals overview was considered as very valuable by

many experts

But…• Still difficult to go beyond today’s notion of innovation• A continuous signal scanning would be desirable• During the scanning process diverse people and perspectives

should be included.

I. Bottom-up approach – Experiences (4)


II. Visual Inspiration – Example: 19 Visions (1)


Pictograms supported

• quick understanding of the main idea of the vision

• clustering of several visions during the interviews

• creative discussions between different experts

II. Visual Inspiration – Supported clarity of visions


clear - - - - unclear

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Vision 5

Vision 2

Vision 4

Vision 11

Vision 1

Vision 3

Vision 8

Vision 13

Vision 19

Vision 12

Vision 6

Vision 14

Vision 10

Vision 18

Vision 7

Vision 16

Vision 17

Vision 9

Vision 15

All visions were assessed predominantly clear by more than 60% of the experts.

• Visual inspiration turned out to be “the” main characteristic of the project.

• Visions were easy to grasp because of visualisation. • High recognition value because of the images and the film

based on the visualisation of the visions. • High interest in the project and high response rate for the

survey and the survey were achieved because of the inspiring images.

• Creative discussions were fostered by visual inspiration.

II. Visual Inspiration – Experiences (3)


III. Rigorous assessment of coverage – Dimensions of change analysed (1)


Innovation initiative Demand driven Supply driven

Innovation's relation to production Separated - Integrated

Innovation involvement Specific - Diffused

Innovation intensity Speeding-up Slowing down

Inovation specificity For everybody - High specialised

Innovation skills Specialised Diffused

Innovation loaction Inside - Outside

Innovation openess Open - - Closed/Secret

Innovation gravity Centralised - Distributed

Innovation continuity Permanent - Occasional

Innovation acessibility Free - Private

Innovation tangibility Tangible - Intangible

Innovation motivation Profit/Benefit - Normative/Mission driven

Innovation economic model Classic Novel

Innovator's working conditions Stable Temporary

Idea generation mode Random Controlled

Dimension of change dominant specificationin the past

The dimensions of change-scheme proved to be valuable for analysing the different visions.

• Coincident changes of the visions were identified, such as…• Shift towards demand driven innovation• More diffused involvement in the innovation process• More diverse innovation skills

• Diverging changes of the visions were identified, such as…• Motivation of the innovation (profit versus mission driven)• Continuity of the innovation process (permanent versus ocasional)• Accessibility of the innovation (free versus private)

But…blind spots in the scheme could have been analysed more

intensively.

III. Rigorous assessment of coverage – Experiences (2)


• The open phase of divergence was deliberately prolonged in the INFU project compared to “classical” scenario processes.

• Mini-panels were set up for eight innovation nodes consisting of several visions.

• Only throughout the vision assessment the mini-panel coordinators were identified.

• Mini-panel coordinators were sub-contracted and were free to chose a visioning methodology and a way to express their vision.

• Typical means developed were:• archetypes of persons, organisations, infrastructure

(Waste based innovation, Innovation chain masters)• abstract schemes

(open innovation city, social experimentation, Innocamp society, automatised innovation)• emblematic images

(widespread creativity)• stories from the future

(deliberative innovation, open innovation city)

IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panels set-up (1)


IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panel coordinators (2)


Node of Change Covered Coordinator Approach

1 Citizens role in innovation governance

Anders Jacobi,Danish Board of TechnologyDenmark

Visioning session among CIVISTI consortium (Kopenhagen)

2 Automatising innovation Patrick CorsiConsultantBelgium

Four Interviews with key companies (IBM, EPFL, INSEAT ISTIA innovation) and group phone discussion

3 New spatial distribution of innovation – innovation chain management

Anna Trifilova and Bettina von StammProfessors Innovation Management; Innovation Leadership ForumUK (Russia)

Three seminars in the framework of international conferences with researchers & company representatives (Nürnberg, London, Exeter)

4 City driven systemic innovation

Daniel Kaplan,FING - association pour la Fondation

Internet Nouvelle Génération The Next Generation Internet Foundation

France

Workshop envisioning the “open innovation city” with actors from city councils and companies involved with city level innovation (Paris)

5 Innocamp Society Dominik Wind,Until we see new land (Innovation

camp Start-Up)Germany

Workshop with stakeholders of future innovation camps (Berlin)

6 Ubiquitous Innovation (including dark sides)

Rolandas StrazdasProfessor innovation management,Lithuania

Creative session with Global Creators, Innovation consultancy (Vilnius)

7 Waste Based (open) innovation

Jay Cousins,Founder of Open Design City BerlinGermany (US)

Workshop in Berlin with stakeholders and key actors from cradle to cradle community (Berlin)

8 Social experimentation Stéphane Vincent,La 27e RégionFrance

Drafting of Citizens Agency in a visioning session with actors in social innovation. Brussels

Element from INFU Vision “Widespread Creativity (Global Innovation Studio, 2010)

IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panels example (3)


Element from INFU Vision „Participatory Innovation“ (Jégou, 2010)



Element from INFU Mini-Panel Vision “Deliberative Innovation”

(Danish Board of Technology, 2010) “A day in a life of a citizen in Deliberative Innovation Scheme”



People liked it! John was a bit surprised, then he got euphoric! Maybe his idea would go

on and become an innovation for the future. He posted his idea only 45 minutes ago and

already 1206 people had voted for it as being interesting and something that should be

taking further. He could also see that the selection committee had looked at it… What

was that – now the idea was not just at the idea interface, they also put it on the

partnership interface. Now it was no longer just an idea, no they wanted to find people

who could actually carry out an innovation process based on his idea, scientist,

entrepreneurs, funding.

Back at the idea interface he could see that quite many people had started to work on

with his idea, putting new angles to it, combining it with their own ideas, suggesting

specific technological development. Most of it was not in line with his original thoughts,

but he had to admit that some of the suggestions where really good. Improving the first

idea a lot!

• The prolonged divergence ensured the extended involvement of distinct stakeholders and innovation experts from all over Europe.

• Suitable experts were identified only throughout the project evolvement based on project results.

• A deepened understanding of different points of view and perspectives was ensured.

• A rich variety of different means to express a vision was developed.

But….• Not all mini-panels developed a vision according to our

understanding.• The effort needed for formal contract arrangement

increased notably.

IV. Prolonged divergence – Experiences (6)


• The innovative bottom-up INFU methodology succeeded in opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation with relevance for society, business and policy.

• The findings may provide useful insight for innovation strategies directed at structural transformation for addressing the Grand Challenges.

Conclusions


Documents

Bottom-up Exploration of Structural Transformation Lessons from a Foresight Exercise on the Future of Innovation Philine Warnke, Elna Schirrmeister Fraunhofer