Foresight Impact on Policy-making:Insights from the FORLEARN mutual

learning processOlivier DA COSTA, Philine WARNKE

Fabiana SCAPOLO, Cristiano CAGNIN

European Commission / Joint Research Centre / Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

OutlineOutline FOR-LEARN project

Why revisiting the impact of Foresight on policy making?

What? Can Foresight contribute to policy making

• Contribution of Foresight to policy-making

1. Informing policy

2. Facilitating policy implementation

• Three additional functions

3. Supporting policy definition

4. Embedding participation

5. Reorienting the policy system

How? Can Foresight contribute to policy making

• Nine emerging guidelines for high impact on policy making

FOR-LEARN ProjectFOR-LEARN Project Part of the “Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform” initiated by

DG Research

Objectives:

• Consolidation and improvement of accessibility to Foresight knowledge and know-how

• Promotion Foresight throughout Europe

• Advancement of Foresight knowledge

Through

• Codification and dissemination of Foresight knowledge

• Direct support to people embarking into Foresight

• Mutual learning between relevant actors

• To transfer existing knowledge

• To address knowledge gaps

FOR-LEARN Learning CycleFOR-LEARN Learning Cycle

ForesightForesight Learning CycleLearning Cycle

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP2Online Query

WP2Online Query

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

Expertise for the support to practitioners

Knowledge gaps

Feedback to update the guide

ForesightForesight Learning CycleLearning Cycle

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP2Online Query

WP2Online Query

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

Expertise for the support to practitioners

Knowledge gaps

Feedback to update the guide

Information about Foresight such as “what it is” “what it can do for you and

what not”.

Practical guidance on how to design and carry a Foresight exercise

Detailed description and implementation advises of Foresight methods

Case studies of past and current exercises

Links to debates and research issues

http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/0_home/index.htm

To promote• Transfer and consolidation of knowledge

• Codification of practises

• Research on knowledge gaps

Different types• Bilateral (in support of a specific exercise, ex Romanian)

• Multilateral (addressing a knowledge gap with 10-15

experts)

• Consolidation (presenting results to a larger audience)

Individual and targeted support to

practitioners, especially beginners• Direct answer

• Reference to other sources or contacts

Possibly set-up of a “Mutual Learning

Workshop” to focus on the issue

Mutual Learning workshop series on the impact of Mutual Learning workshop series on the impact of Foresight on policy-makingForesight on policy-making

1. Seville Dec 05– Positioning of Foresight in the policy making system – Framing the debate

2. Brussels April 06– Towards practical conclusions – Adaptive Foresight and other inroads to policy

3. Seville Sept 06 – The policy-maker perspective

4. Seville Dec 06 - Consolidation workshop – Presenting the results to a wider audience

Capture further reactions to refine and validate the outcomes

Foster wide dissemination of FOR-LEARN insights

Reflect on future activities

Why revisiting impact on policy-making?Why revisiting impact on policy-making?

Experience allows for review of lessons learned

Increasing emphasis on impact assessment and on “value for money”

• Exercises launched to respond to a specific demand

Shift of emphasis from “product” to “process”

• Impact on policy needs to be redefined

Debate on new types of policy-support instruments and new modes of governance

• Need to position Foresight

What?What?

Can Foresight contribute to policy making

2 + 3 functions2 + 3 functions

1. Informing policy

2. Facilitating policy implementation

3. Supporting policy definition

4. Embedding participation

5. Reorienting the policy system

Two core functions of Foresight for policy Two core functions of Foresight for policy making (model)making (model)

ActorActor

PolicyPolicy

ActorActor

Actor

Actor

Facilitating policy implementation

Facilitating policy implementation

Foresight processForesight process

Foresight productForesight product

Informing policyInforming policy

Anticipatory intelligence• Dynamics of change (scenarios, roadmaps)

• Future opportunities & threats

• Strengths & weaknesses of the current system for addressing future challenges (e.g. skills & competencies available)

• Visions for change

• Recommendations for action

Based on a diversity of knowledge sources

Stakeholders views

Viewpoints and expectations in reference to a policy field

New ideas from new channels

1: Informing policy1: Informing policy

PolicyPolicyInforming policyInforming policy

Foresight productForesight product

PolicyI nforming policyInforming policy

Foresight productForesight product

PolicyI nforming policyInforming policy

Foresight productForesight product

(over)simplification and formatting for the messages to go through: ‘indicators’, ranking...

General framework policy adviceGeneral framework policy advice

Increasing the bandwidth

Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry

Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry

Optimising the signal Transmitting more relevant, useable and operational material

Improving reception Improving credibility by giving good advises Making thing interesting rather than boring

Increasing the bandwidth Creating mechanisms of consultations at different steps of policy-making Coupling qualitative with quantitative Using “parallel channels of attention”: pictures, movies… Using the media

Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis

Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis

Optimising the signal

Improving reception

Structuring knowledge from diverse sources through targeted dialogue

Within the targeted arena of change:

Common ground

• Linkages & interfaces

• Combinations between elements (e.g. institutions, companies, people, knowledge, beliefs, technologies, products)

• Joint visions

• Learning platforms

Soft coordination

• Awareness of policy objectives, strategy and constraints

• Willingness to contribute to policy implementation because of agreement with the goal to reach and even feeling of ownership

Distributed intelligence

• Shared information as an input to decision-making for various actors and stakeholders beyond policy-makers

Policy benefit: Enhanced receptivity of the system and thereby its capability to react to future challenges and to evolve in phase with policy

2: Facilitating policy implementation2: Facilitating policy implementation

ActorActor

PolicyPolicy

ActorActor

ActorActor Foresight processForesight process

Facilitating changeFacilitating change

Actor

Policy

Actor

Actor Foresight processForesight process

Facilitating Policy through enabling change

Facilitating Policy through enabling change

Actor

Policy

Actor

Actor Foresight processForesight process

Facilitating Policy through enabling change

Facilitating Policy through enabling change

NB: NB: Policy facilitating as a crucial element of Policy facilitating as a crucial element of Research and Innovation policyResearch and Innovation policyNeed for systemic instruments (Smits & Kuhlmann 2004) in innovation policy

complementing classical steering approaches

Drivers for the need for systemic instruments

• Central role of networks and interfaces within knowledge society

• Insight into co-evolution between technology and societal context

Broadening of decision-making procedures

• Multi level governance

Focus of systemic instruments

• Management of interfaces

• Facilitate new combinations of elements within a system

• Providing a platform for learning and experimenting

• Providing an infrastructure for (distributed) strategic intelligence

• Stimulating demand articulation and common visions

Benefit for R&I policy

• Enhanced connectivity

• Enhanced responsiveness Enhanced capability for innovation

ActorsActors

PolicyPolicy

ActorsActors

Foresight productForesight product

Informing policyInforming policy

ActorsActors

Facilitating policy implementationFacilitating policy implementation

• Dynamics of change• Future risks & opportunities• System capabilities• New ideas & visions• Stakeholders views

Building amongst stakeholders:

• Common ground• Soft coordination• Distributed intelligence

Foresight processForesight process

Three additional functionsThree additional functions

Refined through the Mutual Learning process

1. Supporting policy definition

Establishing a linkage to implementation

2. Embedding participation

Improving governance of policy-making

3. Reorienting the policy system

Adapting it to changing context and challenges

F Supporting policy definitionSupporting policy definitionProblem: Anticipatory intelligence is not easily

translated into options for policy definition, even more so if it stems from a collective process

• Reluctance of policy makers to communicate their agenda within open process

• Danger of blocking the creative process

• Lack of understanding about real needs of policy makers

To contribute to implementation, “informing” and “facilitating” are not enough. Support for policy definition is a possible function of Foresight that has to be addressed explicitly

F Embedding participationEmbedding participation “A new infrastructure for participatory democracy”: improving

governance in complex systems

Improve the transparency of policy-making process

Improve the legitimacy of policy-making process

• Especially for policy with long-term impact or large budget spending

• “Crisis” of (S&T) expertise

• Restoring trust afterwards

• Better identification of citizens with policy

Building policy on societal debates

• Trigger societal debate about central issues (also access to media via Foresight)

Making societal values explicit

Evolution towards shared values

F Reorienting the policy systemReorienting the policy systemNew configurations of policy-making bodies

around new conceptualisations of topics

• e.g. establishment of linkages between ministries

Better ability to address future challenges

Evaluation

Agenda-setting

FORESIGHT

Policy definition• Ex-ante impact

analysis

Learning

Implementation

Understanding of changes

Receptivity of the system

New ideas

Legitimacy, transparency

VisionsPolicy options

New configurations

Compatibility of the functionsCompatibility of the functions

A Foresight exercise can fulfil several of the functions but:

Not everything can be achieved simultaneously and with the same approach

Need to tailor phases to functions with different:

• Levels of stakeholder participation

• Modes of policy involvement

• Methods

Adaptive Foresight (WS2)

Tailoring Phases to FunctionsTailoring Phases to Functions

From vision to action

Diversity and level ofparticipation

A few decision-makers

Citizen participatio

n

Large societal debate

Stakeholder expert groups

Phase I:Diagnosis

Vision How to get

there +

recommendations

Measures, actionsDiagnosis

Phase II: Exploration

Phase III: Strategic orientation

Phase IV: Making choices

Phase V: Implementation and coordination

How?How?Can Foresight contribute to policy making

How can Foresight achieve these contributions?How can Foresight achieve these contributions?Towards guidelines for good impactTowards guidelines for good impact

1. Tailoring phases to functions

2. Analysis of the policy context

3. Adding a strategic counselling phase

4. Shaping within boundaries

5. Involvement of policy makers in the design

6. Involvement of policy makers in the process

7. Building a reservoir of knowledge

8. Addressing choices and values

9. Smart communication

1. Tailoring phases to functions1. Tailoring phases to functions

From vision to action

Diversity and level ofparticipation

A few decision-makers

Citizen participatio

n

Large societal debate

Stakeholder expert groups

Phase I:Diagnosis

Vision How to get

there +

recommendations

Measures, actionsDiagnosis

Phase II: Exploration

Phase III: Strategic orientation

Phase IV: Making choices

Phase V: Implementation and coordination

2. Analysis of the policy context2. Analysis of the policy contextIssue

Foresight outcomes are only taken onboard if the exercise is adequately embedded into the specific policy context

Approach

Careful analysis of policy-context in terms of• Nature of decision making process (who is involved, who is

affected, what are the formal procedures)

• What other input is being fed into the process?

• What are related ongoing decision making processes (e.g. planning)

Positioning in reference to these other ongoing policy processes

Taking into account policy culture

3. Adding a strategic counselling phase3. Adding a strategic counselling phase

Issue: Supporting policy definition without loosing complexity and creativity in collective process

Approach

Specific “strategic counselling” phase for some policy-oriented exercises

Concept: Joint translation of outcomes from a collective exercise into strategic options for a specific policy actor (e.g. ministry)• Keeping protected spaces for creativity

• Not diverting collective process with the constraints of implementation

Outcome: Future-oriented strategies in specific policy fields (e.g. adaptive, robust) adapted to the needs of a specific policy actor

Strategic counselling phaseStrategic counselling phase

PolicyPolicy

Product: Informing

Collective Foresight

Process: Facilitating

Strategy PhaseAdapted strategic options

4. Shaping within boundaries4. Shaping within boundariesIssue

Future is shaped by complex interplay of global drivers which often can be little influenced by policy client (especially in small countries)

Approach

Accept the need to adapt to the future as shaped by others

Make effort to identify “space of manoeuvre” as part of the exercise

• Might be more than obvious at first sight!

• E.g. scenario building: definition of system/drivers

Divergence and convergence: focus recommendations on where it “can make a difference” without reducing complexity of holistic analysis

5. Involvement of policy makers in the design5. Involvement of policy makers in the design

Issue

Mutual ignorance??• Often the Foresight practitioners are treating the policy making system

as a black box with a static demand that they expect the policy client to communicate to them.

• Policy makers do not want to open the "Pandora box" of Foresight methodology but rather expect the practitioners to arrange the exercise to fulfil their needs without having a clear picture of what kind of needs Foresight could be addressing.

Approach

Joint design of the exercise between Foresight team and policy client.• More than just a one off consultation…

• … but a real attempt to create trust and mutual understanding

• More than communication of a pre-existing demand…

• … but co-construction of demand

Policy-makersPolicy-makers

Foresight practitionersForesight practitionersPandora boxPandora boxPandora boxPandora box

Better not try to see what is inside

Mutual ignoranceMutual ignoranceCannot see

what is inside

6. Involvement of policy makers in the process 6. Involvement of policy makers in the process

Issue

Finding the right balance of policy makers involvement

• Policy-makers require external and neutral advice

• But they may not, without early involvement, embrace the outcomes (Not Invented Here)

• Presence of policy makers encourages lobbying rather than creative thinking

Approach

Finding specific roles for policy makers in the process

Windows of policy interaction & windows of seclusion (cf. adaptive Foresight)

7. Building a reservoir of knowledge7. Building a reservoir of knowledgeIssue

Precise answers to precise questions usually not possible, neither always desirable, on the spot. Being in phase is desirable but often not possible.

• Changing policy agenda, different time scales

• Difficult to be in phase: Foresight slower than policy-making

• Not always possible to go through the “supporting policy definition” phase

• Aversion against “prescriptions” of some policy makers

Approach

As an alternative to the “policy definition phase”…

Try to be in phase with policy making e.g. by anticipating policy debates but in parallel:

Conceptualise outcomes as a reservoir of possible policy options (rather than “prioritisation” or “recommendations”) that can be adopted by different actors at different times

• Even in case of major changes, e.g. elections

8. Addressing choices and values8. Addressing choices and values

Issue

Policies need to be linked to normative objectives such as sustainability, quality of life etc.

Stakeholders need to be convinced that the policy results from a choice, not a lack of choice

• Counter-example: French referendum on European Constitution

Approach

Linking explicitly the exploration of the future with debates about choices and values

Not only possible futures but also desirable futures

9. Smart communication9. Smart communication

Issue: Policy makers are

Under severe time pressure

Troubled by information overload

• Not always relevant, reliable

Speed of change & uncertainty

Increasing complexity of issues

• Multi-dimensional: S&T, economic, cultural & social, political, environmental

• Inter-connection, inter-dependency, multi-causal

• Good old fashioned “control system” not applicable, “You can never change one thing”

Difficulty to switch modes “dealing with urgency” “long-term thinking”

Challenge to transmit complexity and long term thinking

Approach

Targeted use of up-to-date communication techniques

Communication strategy tailored to policy makers

Communication via stakeholder involvement and media

50 cm / day

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

DiscussionDiscussion

Consolidated outcomes from the mutual learning process

• Five functions of Foresight for policy making

• Nine guidelines for good policy impact

Now jointly with all contributors

• Validate, criticise

• Refine, complement

• Propose modes of communication

• Identify needs to go deeper

Issues to be discussed tomorrowIssues to be discussed tomorrow

Further dissemination of FORLEARN activities & products

Needs of the Foresight community for mutual learning and cooperation within the European Research Area

Topics for Mutual Learning series next year