BQN ANALYSIS REPORT 2.8Enplanements of the MIA, SJU, and BQN Airports (FY 2014 vs FY2015)..... 27 Figure 2.1Enplanements in the BQN and MIA (CY1990 to CY2016*) ..... 28

UNIVERSITYOFPUERTORICO

INTERDISCIPLINARYRESEARCHINSTITUTE

CensusInformationCenter

BQN ANALYSIS REPORT Commisioned by the Aeronautical and Aerospace

Institute of Puerto Rico

BQN Analysis Report 1

TableofContents

I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 2 II. RAFAELHERNÁNDEZAIRPORTFLIGHTROUTEMAPS .............................................................................................. 2

Map1.1RafaelHernándezAirporttoJohnF.KennedyInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap ....................................... 2 Map1.2RafaelHernándezAirporttoFortLauderdale,FL,AirportFlightRouteMap ...................................................... 3 Map1.3RafaelHernándezAirporttoNewarkLibertyInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap .......................................... 3 Map1.4RafaelHernándezAirporttoOrlandoInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap .................................................... 4 Map1.5RafaelHernándezAirporttoO’HareInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap ..................................................... 5 Map1.6RafaelHernándezAirporttoGeorgeBushIntercontinentalAirportFlightRouteMap ........................................ 5 Map1.7RafaelHernándezAirporttoLosAngelesInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap .............................................. 6 Map1.8RafaelHernándezAirporttoRobertL.BradshawInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap ................................... 6 Map1.9RafaelHernándezAirporttoCyrilE.KingAirportFlightRouteMap .................................................................. 7 Map1.10RafaelHernándezAirporttoLasAméricasInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap ........................................... 7 Map1.11RafaelHernándezAirporttoQueenBeatrixInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap ......................................... 8

Figure1.1Top4DestinationAirportsoftheBQN(2015vs2016incalendaryear) ...................................................... 9 III. BQNVSMIASTATISTICS ....................................................................................................................................... 9

Map2.1BQNFacilitiesDiagram ................................................................................................................................ 11 Map2.2MIAFacilitiesDiagram ................................................................................................................................. 12

Table2.1FacilityInformationoftheMiamiInternationalAirport(January1989toJanuary2017) .......................... 13 Table2.2FacilityInformationoftheRafaelHernándezAirport(January1989toJanuary2017) .............................. 14 Table2.3PassengerAirlinesandDestinationsoftheRafaelHernándezAirport ..................................................... 15 Table2.4CargoAirlinesoftheRafaelHernándezAirport .................................................................................... 15 Table2.5PassengerAirlinesandDestinationsoftheMiamiInternationalAirport ................................................. 17 Table2.6CargoAirlinesoftheMiamiInternationalAirport ................................................................................. 22 Table2.7Cargo,inpounds,oftheMIA,SJU,andBQNAirports(FY2014vsFY2015) ............................................... 26 Table2.8EnplanementsoftheMIA,SJU,andBQNAirports(FY2014vsFY2015) ................................................... 27

Figure2.1EnplanementsintheBQNandMIA(CY1990toCY2016*) ........................................................................ 28 Figure2.2MilitaryEnplanements,ItinerantOperations(CY1990toCY2016*) .......................................................... 29

Table2.9EfficiencyStatisticsoftheMiamiInternationalAirport(MIA)(FY2009toFY2016) ................................... 30 Table2.10CapacityStatisticsoftheMiamiInternationalAirport(MIA)(FY2009toFY2016) ................................... 31

IV. AMENDMENTSINTHECABOTAGELAWSFORALASKAANDITSPOTENTIALIMPACTINPUERTORICO ..................... 32 Figure3.1CargoandPassengersoftheTedStevensAnchorageInternationalAirport(1997to2015) ........................ 38

Table3.1CargoandPassengers’GrowthRateafterCabotageChanges(1997-2002and2003-2009) ...................... 39 V. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................................... 43


BQNANALYSISREPORT

I. INTRODUCTION

An exemption of the air cabotage laws represents an opportunity for growth for the aeronautical

industry in Puerto Rico and specifically the Aguadilla Rafael Hernandez Airport (BQN). This study,

commissioned by the Aeronautical and Aerospace Institute of Puerto Rico, has been prepared to

present a comparative analysis of current Rafael Hernandez routes and capabilities, the Miami Airport

and the Alaska Anchorage airport. The last section includes an analysis of the potential impact of the

amendment of the cabotage laws for Puerto Rico and the Rafael Hernandez Airport.

II. RAFAELHERNÁNDEZAIRPORTFLIGHTROUTEMAPS

Map1.1RafaelHernándezAirporttoJohnF.KennedyInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoNewYorkis3hours50minutes.

• DistancefromAguadillatoNewYorkisapproximately2,536kilometers.


Source:BureauofTransportationStatistics(BTS)andGoogleMaps,2017.

Map1.2RafaelHernándezAirporttoFortLauderdale,FL,AirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoFloridais2hours30minutes.

• DistancefromAguadillatoFloridaisapproximately1,580kilometers.


Map1.3RafaelHernándezAirporttoNewarkLibertyInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoNewJerseyis3hours50minutes.

• DistancefromAguadillatoNewJerseyisapproximately1,585kilometers.



Map1.4RafaelHernándezAirporttoOrlandoInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoOrlandois2hours50minutes.

• DistancefromAguadillatoOrlandoisapproximately1,129kilometers.


Source:BureauofTransportationStatistics(BTS);andGoogleMaps,2017.

Map1.5RafaelHernándezAirporttoO’HareInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoChicago,Ilis7hours35minuteswithlayover.• DistancefromAguadillatoChicago,Ilisapproximately3,264kilometers.

Source:BureauofTransportationStatistics(BTS);andGoogleMaps,2017.

Map1.6RafaelHernándezAirporttoGeorgeBushIntercontinentalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoHoustonis7hours55minuteswithlayover.

• DistancefromAguadillatoHoustonisapproximately3,124kilometers.



Map1.7RafaelHernándezAirporttoLosAngelesInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoLosAngelesis9hours05minuteswithlayover.

• DistancefromAguadillatoLosAngelesisapproximately5,343kilometers.


Map1.8RafaelHernándezAirporttoRobertL.BradshawInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoSt.Kitts&Nevisis10hours50minuteswithlayover.

• DistancefromAguadillatoSt.Kitts&Nevisisapproximately486kilometers.



Map1.9RafaelHernándezAirporttoCyrilE.KingAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoSt.Thomasis10hours10minuteswithlayover.

• DistancefromAguadillatoSt.Thomasisapproximately229kilometers.


Map1.10RafaelHernándezAirporttoLasAméricasInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoSantoDomingois5hours55minuteswithlayover.

• DistancefromAguadillatoSantoDomingoisapproximately269kilometers.



Map1.11RafaelHernándezAirporttoQueenBeatrixInternationalAirportFlightRouteMap

• FlighttimefromAguadillatoArubais9hours50minuteswithlayover.• DistancefromAguadillatoArubaisapproximately732kilometers.



Figure1.1Top4DestinationAirportsoftheBQN(2015vs2016incalendaryear)

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, T-100 Domestic Market (US Carriers), 2017. Retrieved from: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?pn=1&Airport=BQN

III. BQNVSMIASTATISTICS

In1940,duringWorldWarII,theUnitedStatesArmedForcesbuiltarunwayinAguadilla,PR.

After eight years, thenamedmilitarybaseofficially became the “RameyAir ForceBase”with3,796

acres. In1973,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofDefensedeactivatedthemilitarybaseandnamed it

“BorinquenInternationalAirport”undertheadministrationofthePortsAuthorityofPuertoRico.Later,

in1987,itchangeditsnametotheRafaelHernándezAirport(BQN)inhonorofthePuertoRicanwriter,

and continues being a civil-military airport. In 2012, it became the first airport in Puerto Rico

designated to the “Free Trade Zone” (FTZ) of the Department of Commerce of the United States,

achievingbenefitssuchas:“100%exemptiononMunicipalLicenseTaxesonexportsoutsidetheUnited

States”,“100%exemptiononexportsforthezoneandsub-zone”,amongothers.

29

62 63

48

73

66 64

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Florida (FLL) New York (JFK) Orlando, FL (MCO) New Jersey (EWR)

Pass

enge

rs (0

00)

Destination (City, Airport Code)

2015 2016


AccordingtoSenateProject936ofJune15,2009,therunwayoftheBQNis“aNASAalternative

to land ferries in emergencies”. BQN has facilities that could be comparable with the Miami

InternationalAirport(MIA)inFlorida,USA.MIAisoneofthemajorairportsinNorthAmerica;in1920,

GlennH.Curtissdonatedtheland,butitwasinauguratedin1928asacivilairport.BQNhasthelargest

runwayintheCaribbeanwithadimensionof11,702ft.x200ft.,whiletheMIAhasfourrunways:three

aresmaller than theBQNandone is slightly larger (13,016 ft. x150 ft.). In the lastFederalAviation

Administration (FAA) evaluation1, completed inMarch 2017, it is explained that all runways of the

airportsstudiedarepavedwithasphalt,but thatBQN’s runway is inpoorconditions,while thoseof

MIA are in good conditions. According to the FAA reports, all runways of these airports have good

lights.

Anotherfactorthatdeterminesthetotalcargoandpassengerstransportedatbothairports is

thequantityofgatesineachterminal.TheMIAhasonehundredtwenty-five(125)gatesdistributedin

six(6)terminals,whiletheBQNhastwo(2)gatesandone(1)terminal.AccordingtotheFAAofficial

reports, the MIA covers approximately 3,230 acres, while the BQN, 1,600. That may explain the

difference inmovement at both airports, but authorities point out that BQN could reach a greater

capacity than the current one, since it has an additional space that could beused for its expansion

(Map2.1and2.2).

1 Retrieved from: http://www.gcr1.com/5010WEB/airport.cfm?Site=BQN&CFID=2281952&CFTOKEN=36798871 and http://www.gcr1.com/5010WEB/airport.cfm?Site=MIA&CFID=2281952&CFTOKEN=36798871.


Map2.1BQNFacilitiesDiagram

Source: Federal Aviation Administration, 2017. Retrieved from: https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/flight_info/aeronav/digital_products/dtpp/search/results/


Map2.2MIAFacilitiesDiagram

Source: Federal Aviation Administration, 2017. Retrieved from: https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/flight_info/aeronav/digital_products/dtpp/search/results/


Ontheotherhand,MIAhasfifteen(15)jetswhileBQNhasone(1)jetandnine(9)helicopters.

Both airports have communication towerswithUSA. However,MIA has two towers combinedwith

other systemswhile the BQN in August 2008, had its first control tower as an FAAmember. Since

January1989untilAugust2003,theMiamiInternationalAirportwasclassifiedas“TowerswithRadar”.

Then,itwaschangedto“CombinedTRACONandTowerwithRadar”.Duringeveryperiod,theMIAwas

anFAAFacility,accordingtotheAirTrafficActivitySystem(ATADS)(Table2.1).

Table2.1FacilityInformationoftheMiamiInternationalAirport(January1989toJanuary2017)

Source:AirTrafficActivitySystem(ATADS),2017.


However,theRafaelHernándezAirport,sinceJanuary1989untilJuly2007,wasclassifiedasa

“Non-FAAFacility”.AccordingtotheAirTrafficActivitySystem,thistermchangedinFebruary2013to

“FederalContractTower”(Table2.2).

Table2.2FacilityInformationoftheRafaelHernándezAirport(January1989toJanuary2017)

Source:AirTrafficActivitySystem(ATADS),2017.

Currently, the Airports-Worldwide (2017) website states that BQN has four (4) commercial

airlines and fourteen (14) cargo lines. Meanwhile, MIA (one of the most important airports in the

UnitedStates)hasfifty-two(52)commercialairlinesandthirty-four(34)cargoairlines(2017)(Tables

2.3to2.6).


Table2.3PassengerAirlinesandDestinationsoftheRafaelHernándezAirport

Airlines Destinations

ContinentalAirlines Newark

JetBlueAirways NewYork-JFK,Orlando

PAWADominicanaPuertoPlata[seasonal],PuntaCana,Santo

Domingo

SpiritAirlines FortLauderdale

Source: Airports-Worldwide, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.airports-worldwide.com/puerto_rico/rafael_hernandez_puerto_rico.php.

AccordingtotheAirports-Worldwide(2017)website,BQNhasthree(3)commercialairlinesto

UnitedStatesandone(1)toDominicanRepublic(Table2.3).

Table2.4CargoAirlinesoftheRafaelHernándezAirport


AmeriflightAruba,Barbados,Curaçao,Grenada,Providenciales,SanJuan,

SantiagodelosCaballeros,St.Croix,St.Thomas,St.Lucia

AtlasAir Malta(chartersseveraltimespermonth)

CaribEx

Worldwide/CaribExIntl

Airlines

DailyflightstoSantoDomingoandondemandflightstothe

CaribbeanandtheUS

CaribEx

Worldwide/CaribExIntl

Antigua,Miami,Providenciales,SanJuan,Santiagodelos

Caballeros,SantoDomingo,St.Kitts,St.Lucia,St.Maarten



Airlinesoperatedby

SkywayEnterprises

ContractAirCargo SantiagodelosCaballeros,SantoDomingo

CorporateAirAruba,Barbados,Curaçao,PortofSpain,Santiagodelos

Caballeros,St.Lucia

FedExExpress Memphis,Greensboro(NC),Indianapolis

FedExFeederoperated

byMountainAirCargoSantiagodelosCaballeros,SantoDomingo

MartinairCargo Amsterdam,Bogotá,Lima,LondonStansted

MerlinVenturesLtd Barbados,Miami

MerlinExpress Providenciales,SantiagodelosCaballeros

MountainAirCargo Providenciales,SantiagodelosCaballeros,SantoDomingo

RoblexAviation

TradewindsAirlinesDallas/FortWorth,Greensboro/HighPoint/Winston-Salem,

Hartford,Indianapolis

Source: Airports-Worldwide, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.airports-worldwide.com/puerto_rico/rafael_hernandez_puerto_rico.php.

TheAirports-Worldwide(2017)websiteinformsthatBQNhasfive(5)cargoairlinesgoingtothe

UnitedStatesandeight(8)othercompaniesusuallyflyingtotheUSVirginIslands,Europe,andother

territoriesinSouthandCentralAmerica.CaribExWorldwide/CaribExIntlAirlines,operatedbySkyway

EnterprisesandMerlinVenturesLtd,carrymerchandisefromtheBQN(Table2.4).


Table2.5PassengerAirlinesandDestinationsoftheMiamiInternationalAirport

Airlines Destinations Concourse

AerolíneasArgentinas BuenosAires-Ezeiza,PuntaCana J

Aeromexico MexicoCity F

AeromexicoConnect Mérida,Monterrey F

Aerosur Camagüey,Havana,SantaCruzdelaSierra F,G

AirBerlin Düsseldorf

NewRoutes:Berlin-Tegel[November19]

J

AirCanada Toronto-Pearson

Seasonal:Montréal-Trudeau

J

AirEuropa Madrid

Seasonal:Tenerife-North

F

AirFrance Paris-CharlesdeGaulle,Pointe-à-Pitre,Port-au-Prince H

AirTranAirways Atlanta[endsOctober7],Baltimore G

AlaskaAirlines Seattle/Tacoma F

Alitalia Milan-Malpensa,Rome-Fiumicino H

AmericanAirlines Antigua,Aruba,Atlanta,Barbados,Baltimore,BelizeCity,Belo

Horizonte,Bermuda,Bogotá,Boston,BuenosAires-Ezeiza,Cali,

Cancún,Caracas,Chicago-O'Hare,Curaçao,Dallas/Ft.Worth,

Denver,Detroit,GrandCayman,Grenada,GuatemalaCity,

Guayaquil,Hartford,Houston-Intercontinental,Kingston,La

Paz,LaRomana,LasVegas,Liberia(CR),Lima,London-

D,E



Heathrow,LosAngeles,Madrid,Managua,Maracaibo,

Medellín-Córdova,MexicoCity,Minneapolis/St.Paul,Montego

Bay,Montevideo,Montréal-Trudeau,Nashville,NewOrleans,

NewYork-JFK,NewYork-LaGuardia,Newark,Orlando,Panama

City,Paris-CharlesdeGaulle,Philadelphia,Phoenix,Port-au-

Prince,PortofSpain,Providenciales,PuertoPlata,PuntaCana,

Quito,Raleigh/Durham,Recife,RiodeJaneiro-Galeão,St.Croix,

St.Kitts,St.Louis,St.Lucia,St.Maarten,St.Thomas,Salvador

daBahia,SanSalvador,SantaCruzdelaSierra,SãoPaulo-

Guarulhos,SanFrancisco,SanJosé(CR),SanJuan(PR),San

PedroSula,SantiagodeChile,SantiagodelosCaballeros,Santo

Domingo,Tampa,Tegucigalpa,Toronto-Pearson,Tulsa,

Washington-Dulles,Washington-Reagan

Seasonal:Eagle\Vail

NewRoutes:Brasília[November17]

AmericanEagle Atlanta,Birmingham(AL),Charleston(SC),Charlotte,

Cincinnati/NorthernKentucky,Columbus(OH),

Greensboro/HighPoint/Winston-Salem,Indianapolis,Knoxville,

Jacksonville,Louisville,Memphis,Norfolk,Pensacola,

Pittsburgh,Richmond,Savannah,Tallahassee

NewRoutes:Cleveland,Nassau[bothNovember18]

D



AmericanEagle

operatedby

ExecutiveAirlines

Camagüey,Cienfuegos,FortMyers,Freeport,Gainesville,

GeorgeTown,Governor'sHarbour,Havana,Holguín,

Jacksonville(FL),KeyWest,MarshHarbour,Nassau,North

Eleuthera,SantiagodeCuba,TreasureCay

D

Avianca Barranquilla,Bogotá,Cali,CartagenadeIndias,Medellín-

Córdova,Pereira

J

AviorAirlines Barcelona(Venezuela) F

Bahamasair Nassau G

BritishAirways London-Heathrow F

CaribbeanAirlines Georgetown,PortofSpain J

CaymanAirways GrandCayman,CaymanBrac F

ContinentalAirlines Houston-Intercontinental,Newark

Seasonal:Cleveland

H

Continental

Connectionoperated

byGulfstream

InternationalAirlines

MarshHarbour,NorthEleuthera,Orlando,Tampa G

ContinentalExpress

operatedby

ExpressJetAirlines

Cleveland H

CopaAirlines PanamaCity H

Corsair Paris-Orly[resumesDecember17] F



DeltaAirLines Atlanta,Cincinnati/NorthernKentucky,Detroit,Memphis,

Minneapolis/St.Paul,NewYork-JFK

NewRoutes:London-Heathrow[March27,pending

governmentapproval],Washington-Reagan[October31]

H

DeltaConnection

operatedbyPinnacle

Airlines

NewRoutes:Raleigh/Durham[November20] H

Finnair Seasonal:Helsinki F

Gulfstream

InternationalAirlines

Havana F,G

IBCAirways CapHaïtien J

IberiaAirlines Madrid F

InselAir Bonaire,Curaçao,Port-au-Prince,St.Maarten F

Lacsa SanJosé(CR) J

LANAirlines Bogotá,Caracas,Guayaquil,PuntaCana,SantiagodeChile J

LANArgentina BuenosAires-Ezeiza,PuntaCana J

LANEcuador Quito

NewRoutes:Guayaquil[October4]

J

LANPerú Lima,PuntaCana J

Lufthansa Frankfurt,Munich

Seasonal:Düsseldorf

J

SBAAirlines Caracas F



Seasonal:Maracaibo

SkyKing Havana,Holguín F,G

SunCountryAirlines Seasonal:Minneapolis/St.Paul F

SurinamAirways Aruba,Paramaribo F

SwissInternational

AirLines

Zürich J

TACAAirlines GuatemalaCity,Managua,SanPedroSula,SanSalvador

Seasonal:Roatán

J

TAMAirlines Manaus,RiodeJaneiro-Galeão,SãoPaulo-Guarulhos J

TransaeroAirlines NewRoutes:Moscow-Domodedovo[October27] F

UnitedAirlines Seasonal:Denver J

UnitedExpress

operatedbyShuttle

America

Chicago-O'Hare,Washington-Dulles J

USAirways Charlotte,Philadelphia J

VirginAtlantic

Airways

London-Heathrow F

VisionAirlines Camagüey,Havana,Holguín,SantiagodeCuba F,G

WestJet Toronto-Pearson F

Source: Airports-Worldwide, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.airports-worldwide.com/usa/florida/miami_international_florida.htm. Note: “All flights to Cuba are operated as scheduled by Special Authority Charters”.


AccordingtoAirports-Worldwide(2017),outoffifty-two(52)commercialairlinesintheMIA,

justten(10)carrypassengerstotheUnitedStates,asshowninTable2.5.AmericanAirlinesistheonly

commercialairlineoftheMIAthatcarriespassengersdirectlytoSanJuan,PuertoRico.

Table2.6CargoAirlinesoftheMiamiInternationalAirport


ABSACargoAirlineCaracas,CiudaddelEste,Lima,Manaus,Quito,SaoPaulo-

Viracopos,Vitoria

ABXAir Cincinnati,Paramaribo,SantoDomingo

AirAtlantaIcelandic NewYork-JFK,Oslo-Gardermoen

AirJamaicaCargo Kingston,MontegoBay

AirTransportInternational GuatemalaCity,PanamaCity,SanJosédeCostaRica

AmerijetInternational

Aruba,BelizeCity,Campinas,Curitiba,Lima,Manaus,Maracaibo,

Mérida,PortofSpain,Salvador,SanJuan,SanPedroSula,San

Salvador,SantiagodelosCaballeros,SantoDomingo,St.Maarten

AtlasAirChicago-O'Hare,Lima,Manaus,Oslo-Gardermoen,SaoPaulo-

Viracopos,RiodeJaneiro(FromSeptember3rd)

CathayPacificCargo Anchorage,HongKong,Houston-Intercontinental

CapitalCargoInternational

AirlinesMérida,Orlando,Toledo



CaribbeanAirlinesCargo Barbados,PortofSpain

Cargolux Houston-Intercontinental,Luxembourg,MexicoCity

CaymanAirwaysCargo GrandCayman

CenturionAirCargoBogotá,Caracas,Iquitos,Lima,Manaus,Medellín,Santiagode

Chile,SaoPaulo-Viracopos,SanJuan

ChinaAirlinesCargo Anchorage,Atlanta,Seattle/Tacoma,Taipei-Taoyuan

CielosdelPerúBogotá,Caracas,Iquitos,Lima,Managua,Manaus,Montevideo,

Quito

DHLAirways Cincinnati/NorthernKentucky,Toledo

DHLAeroExpreso PanamaCity,Quito,SanJosédeCostaRica

EstafetaCargaAérea Cancún,Mérida

FedExExpress Memphis,Quito,SanJuan,Valencia(Venezuela)

FloridaWestInternational

Airways

Bogotá,GuatemalaCity,Guayaquil,Lima,LosAngeles,Manaus,

Medellín,Quito,SantoDomingo,SanJosédeCostaRica

IBCAirwaysFreeport,GrandCayman,Havana,Kingston,MarshHarbour,

MontegoBay,Nassau,Port-au-Prince,Providenciales

KoreanAirCargo Anchorage,Dallas/FortWorth,Seoul-Incheon,Toronto-Pearson

LANCargo

Amsterdam,BuenosAires-Ezeiza,Caracas,Curitiba,Guatemala

City,Guayaquil,Lima,Manaus,Montevideo,PortoAlegre,Quito,

SanJosédeCostaRica,SanMigueldeTucumán

LíneaAéreaCarguerade

ColombiaBogotá,Curitiba,Manaus,Medellín,Quito,SaoPaulo-Viracopos



MartinairCargoAmsterdam,Bogotá,BuenosAires-Ezeiza,Guayaquil,Lima,Quito,

SantiagodeChile

MasAir MexicoCity

MountainAirCargo Freeport,Kingston

SkywayEnterprises Nassau

TampaCargoBarranquilla,Bogotá,Cali,Caracas,Lima,Manaus,Medellín,

Quito,Valencia(Venezuela)

TradewindsAirlines Lima

TransportesAéreos

BolivianosCochabamba,PanamaCity,SantaCruzdelaSierra

UPSAirlines

Bogotá,Greenville/Spartanburg,GuatemalaCity,Guayaquil,

Jacksonville(FL),Lima,Louisville,Managua,Philadelphia,Quito,

SanJosédeCostaRica,SanPedroSula,SantoDomingo,SaoPaulo-

Viracopos,WestPalmBeach

VenezolanaServiciosExpresos Caracas,Maracaibo

WorldAirwaysCargo Bogotá,Caracas,Cali,Lima,Manaus,Quito

Source: Airports Worldwide, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.airports-worldwide.com/usa/florida/miami_international_florida.htm.


OneinterestingpointabouttheMIAcargoisthatseven(7)outofthirty-four(34)cargoairlines

carry merchandise to the United States, as shown in Table 2.6. The other cargo airlines distribute

merchandisetotheUSVirginIslands,Europe,SouthandCentralAmerica,Alaska,andCanada,among

otherlocations.CenturionAirCargoandFedExExpresstransportmerchandisefromMiamitoSanJuan,

PuertoRico(AirportsWorldwide,2017).

In pursuit of the BQN expansion andwith focus on turning it into Puerto Rico’smain cargo

airport,amasterplanhasbeendevelopedthatconsiderstheexpansionofthecurrentrunway,along

withother infrastructure constructions thatwouldallow it to competedirectlywith the LuisMuñoz

MarínInternationalAirportinSanJuan,PR.In2012,thePuertoRicoDepartmentofTransportationand

PublicWorkspublishedatransportationplanthatincludedtheBQN,statingthat“toimprovecapacity

we must increase the number and size of freeways and traffic services, and also include new

construction, expansion of existing facilities and the redesign of specific locations”.2Both airports

receivedfederalfunds(AIPGrants)toincreaseitscapacityandimproveitsservicesandinfrastructure.

From2006to2016 (fiscal years)BQN received22.5milliondollars and theMIA135.2milliondollars

(figuresnotadjustedbyinflation).3

AccordingtotheFederalAviationAdministration (FAA), in2015thetotalcargoweightof the

Miami InternationalAirport (MIA)was 7,630,761,702pounds, falling in the fifth positionof the 132

airports studied. However, the Rafael Hernández Airport (BQN) had a total cargo weight of

713,335,570poundsandtheLuisMuñozMarín InternationalAirporthad1,008,603,300pounds.The

differencebetweenthecargosmayrespondtothesizeofeachhub:thelargerthehub,thegreaterthe

cargo.Intermsofgrowth,thehighestincreasetookplaceinSJU(18.62%)whencomparingthethree

2 Puerto Rico Transportation and Public Works Department (February 2012). Aguadilla Urbanized Area-2032 Long Range Transportation Plan. Retrieved from: http://www.dtop.gov.pr/carretera/det_content.asp?cn_id=254 3 Retrieved from: https://www.faa.gov/airports/aip/grant_histories/


airports in this study. The second highest increase was in BQN with 8.00% and the lowest rate

correspondedtotheMIAwith6.09%(Table2.7).

Table2.7Cargo,inpounds,oftheMIA,SJU,andBQNAirports(FY2014vsFY2015)

Rank ST LocIDAirport

NameCity

Svc

LvlHub

2015Landed

Weight

(pounds)

2014Landed

Weight

(pounds)

%

Change

5 FL MIAMiami

InternationalMiami P L 7,630,761,702 7,192,790,882 6.09%

24 PR SJU

LuisMuñoz

Marín

International

SanJuan P M 1,008,603,300 850,270,758 18.62%

34 PR BQNRafael

HernándezAguadilla P N 713,335,570 660,524,330 8.00%

Source:FederalAviationAdministration,2017.

AccordingtotheFederalAviationAdministration(FAA),in2015thetotalenplanementsofthe

Miami International Airport (MIA) were 20,986,349, obtaining the eleventh position of the 1,555

airportsstudied.However,theRafaelHernándezAirport(BQN)hadatotalof202,197enplanements

andtheLuisMuñozMarínInternationalAirporthad4,187,888.Intermsofgrowth,thehighestincrease

tookplace in theMIA (7.78%)whenconsidering the threeairports in this study.Thesecondhighest

wasSJUwith1.09%.ThelowestratecorrespondedtoBQNwith-4.73%(Table2.8).


Table2.8EnplanementsoftheMIA,SJU,andBQNAirports(FY2014vsFY2015)

Rank ST LocIDAirport

NameCity

Svc

LvlHub

2015

Enplanements

2014

Enplanements

%

Change

11 FL MIAMiami

InternationalMiami P L 20,986,349 19,471,466 7.78%

43 PR SJU

LuisMuñoz

Marín

International

SanJuan P M 4,233,638 4,187,888 1.09%

182 PR BQNRafael

HernándezAguadilla P N 202,197 212,239 -4.73%

Source:FederalAviationAdministration,2017.

From 1990 to 2016, the Miami International Airport (MIA) had increased the total of

enplanementsandtotalaircarriers,asshowninFigure2.1.Eventhoughtotalenplanementsincreased

from11.7millionin1990to15.9millionin2000,theydecreasedto13millionin2002.However,since

2002, ithasbeen increasingagain, reaching19.8million in2016.The trendsof the totalair carriers

weredifferentduringtheperiods.BQN,ontheotherhand,had10,335aircarriersin1990,increasing

to140,791in1995.Then,in1999,thequantitydecreasedto17,472andin2008,thequantityincreased

to238,354.In2015,theamountofaircarriersdecreasedto198,679,andagainincreasedto244,242in

2016.


Figure2.1EnplanementsintheBQNandMIA(CY1990toCY2016*)

Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), 2017. Note: (*) = The 2016 data is estimated.

According to Figure 2.2, themilitary enplanements in Rafael Hernández Airport in Aguadilla,

PuertoRico,werehigherthanintheMiamiInternationalAirport,exceptin1998,2002,and2007.Since

2006 until 2007, the quantity in this airport decreased from 12,962 to 624, respectively. InMiami

InternationalAirport,since1990until2016,thetotalmilitaryenplanementsdecreasedfrom7,178to

1,115,respectively.

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

*

Enpl

anem

ents

in M

IA

Enpl

anem

ents

in B

QN

Period (In calendar year)

Aguadilla Miami


Figure2.2MilitaryEnplanements,ItinerantOperations(CY1990toCY2016*)

Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), 2017. Note: (*) = The 2016 data is estimated.

The FAA prepared Capacity Profiles for theMIA and other airports in theUnited States; the

international airports of Puerto Rico were not included. The MIA Capacity Profile details that the

“estimatedcapacityrate inMarginalConditions” is148operationsperhour,whiletheMIAreported

132 in 2014. The “estimated capacity rate in Instrument Conditions” is 148 operations per hour,

whilethe MIAreported in 2014 was 104. The “estimated capacity rate in Visual Conditions” is 150

operations per hour; however, the airport reported 132 in 2014. Finally, a capacity rate of 106

operationsperhourisestimatedaspartoffutureimprovements.4

4Retrieved from: https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/profiles/media/MIA-Airport-Capacity-Profile-2014.pdf

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

*

Mili

tary

Enp

lane

men

ts

Period (In calendar year)

Aguadilla Miami


Table2.9EfficiencyStatisticsoftheMiamiInternationalAirport(MIA)(FY2009toFY2016)

PerformanceIndicator 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AverageGateArrival

Delay

(MinutesperFlight)

7.1 4.5 1.9 -0.1 1.6 1.1 3.9 4.5

AverageNumberof

Level-offsperFlight

(CountsperFlight)

* * 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

DistanceinLevelFlight

fromTopofDescentto

RunwayThreshold

(NauticalMilesper

Flight)

* * 27.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.3 29.3

EffectiveGate-to-Gate

Time

(MinutesperFlight)

169.4 167.1 163.1 160.1 159.9 159.0 172.9 180.3

Tax-InTime

(MinutesperFlight)8.7 8.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 7.7 9.2 10.2

Tax-OutTime

(MinutesperFlight)16.8 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.2

Source: Federal Aviation Administration, NextGen, 2017. Notes: 1) (*) = Consistent data for the time period prior to FY 2011 are not available. 2) “As described by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), efficiency addresses the operational and economic cost-effectiveness of gate-to-gate flight operations from a single-flight perspective. In all phases of flight, airspace users want to depart and arrive at the times they select and fly the trajectory they determine to be optimum.”


Toimproveday-to-dayoperations,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofTransportationcreatedthe

NextGENtool.Itprovidesefficiencyandcapacitystatisticsfortheparticipatingairports.Oneofthemis

theMIA,butnotBQN(Tables2.9and2.10).

AccordingtoTable2.9,theaveragegatearrivaldelayoftheMiamiInternationalAirport

decreasedfrom7.1minutesperflightin2009,to4.5in2016.Theaveragenumberoflevel-offs

per flightwas stable, close to 2.2 and 2.1 counts per flight from2011 to 2016. In 2011, the

distance in level flight from top of descent to runway thresholdwas 27.3 nauticalmiles per

flight,while in 2016, it increased to 29.3. The effective gate-to-gate time increasedbetween

2009and2016,from169.4to180.3minutesperflight.Thetax-intimeincreasedfrom8.7to

10.2minutesperflightintheperiod2009-2016.Ontheotherhand,thetax-outtimeincreased

from16.8to19.2minutesperflightbetween2009and2016.

Table2.10CapacityStatisticsoftheMiamiInternationalAirport(MIA)(FY2009toFY2016)

PerformanceIndicator 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Daily Capacity (Number of Operations)

2,062 2,015 2,071 2,037 2,050 1,987 2,052 2,042

Average Hourly Capacity During Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) (Number of Operations)

121 111 118 109 116 108 108 108

Source: Federal Aviation Administration, NextGen, 2017. Note: “As described by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO): The global Air Traffic Management (ATM) system should exploit the inherent capacity to meet airspace user demands at peak times and locations while minimizing restrictions on traffic flow. ICAO also notes: The ATM system must be resilient to service disruption and the resulting temporary loss of capacity.”


TheFederalAviationAdministration(FAA)calculatestwocapacitystatistics forsomeairports.

From 2009 to 2016, the average daily capacity in number of operations of theMiami International

Airport(MIA)decreasedfrom2,062to2,042,asshowninTable2.10.Thelowestaverageoccurredin

2014with1,987andthehighestaveragearosein2011with2,071.Similarly,intheperiod2009-2016,

the average hourly capacity during instrument meteorological conditions in number of operations

decreasedfrom121to108.

Inconclusion,theBQNcouldbebetterpositionediftheairportisenhanced,takingadvantage

oftheFreeTradeZoneandoftheaerospacenichejustcreatedinAguadilla.BQNisagreatresourcefor

theexportofPuertoRicogoods.TheMIAisanairportthathadanacceleratedgrowthinthelastyears.

However, ithasbeensaid that, toprovideagoodservice,airports shouldnotoverrun itsmaximum

capacity utilization. In this direction, the United States Department of Transportation is providing

assistanceand theFAA in2015 (fiscal year)hasdesignated2.7milliondollars to conductanAirport

MasterPlanStudy.

IV. AMENDMENTSINTHECABOTAGELAWSFORALASKAANDITSPOTENTIALIMPACTINPUERTO

RICO

1. BackgroundReview

Itwouldbehelpfultostartthissectionbydefiningwhatcabotageisanditsorigin.Cabotageis

maritime, fluvial, lacustrine, ground and air transportation of persons, goods, and national or

nationalizedluggage,betweendifferentpartsofacountry’sterritorybyvehiclesregisteredinanother

country (Lexicoon, 2017). In naval terms, cabotage is the transportation of cargo and passengers


between ports of the same country, sailing relatively near the coast. Etymologically, it means to

navigate cape in cape and comes from the French word “caboter”, which refers to the navigation

formedbetweenheadlands.Thisreportemphasizestheaircabotage lawsandtheirconsequences in

thedevelopmentofaircargotransportation.

ForthedevelopmentofaircargointheAnchorageInternationalAirportinAlaska,senatorTed

Stevensdecidedin2003topresentamendmentstoexemptAnchorageairportfromtheaircabotage

laws that limited economic development in the area. In general, the purpose was to create and

maintainjobsandenhancethecargocapacity.Theamendmentstatedthefollowing:

CargoinAlaska:

I. Ingeneral,eligiblecargotakenonoroffanyaircraftataplace inAlaska inthecourseof

transportationof thatcargobyanycombinationof twoormoreaircarriersor foreignair

carriersineitherdirectionbetweenaplaceintheUnitedStates(US)andaplaceoutsidethe

US,shallnotbedeemedtohavebrokenits international journeyin,betakenonin,orbe

destinedforAlaska.

II. Eligible cargo - for purposes of paragraph (I), the term “eligible cargo” means cargo

transportedbetweenAlaskaandanyotherplace intheUSonaforeignaircarrier(having

been transported from, or thereafter being transported to a place outside the US on a

differentaircarrierorforeignaircarrier)thatiscarried:

a. underthecodeofaUSaircarrierprovidingairtransportationtoAlaska;b. onanaircarrierwaybillofUSaircarrierprovidingairtransportationtoAlaska;orc. underatermarrangementorblockspaceagreementwithanaircarrier;d. underthecodeofaUSaircarrierforpurposesoftransportationwithintheUS.

Stevens(2003-2004)explainedtothePresidentoftheUnitedStatesthat:


“Thisamendmentdealswithprotectingexisting jobsandcreatingnew jobson theground in

Alaskarelatingtotheairport.Anchorageisthetop-rankedcargoairportinNorthAmerica:600

widebodycargocarriersperweek;19airlinesprovidingall-cargomaindeck freighterservice

throughAnchorage;9hoursbyairfrom95percentoftheindustrializedworld;3000milesfrom

Tokyo; 3000miles fromNew York city; 4000miles from London; 4000miles from Frankfurt;

4400milesfromHongKong…Foreignairlinesprovidemuchofthisinternationalcargolifttoand

fromtheUSthroughAnchorage.FederallawallowstheseplanestolandinAlaska,creatingan

enormousnumberofjobsontheground.Federallaw,ascurrentlyinterpreted,doesnotallow

U.S.carrierstouseexcesscapacityontheirforeignpartnerstomoveinternationalcargofrom

Anchoragetothelower48.Theforeigncarriermustmakethefulltripbyitself.Itisprohibited

fromtransferringcargotoorfromaU.S.carrierflyingtheinternationallegofthejourney”.

Stevens(2003-2004)alsohighlightedthefollowing:

“Anchorage is under attack from foreign cargo hubs seeking to exploit this weakness. Cities

suchasTashkent,Kharbarovsk,andAnadyr inAsiaandCalgaryandVancouver inCanadaare

aggressively pursuing the cargo carriers that Anchorage now serves. TheUS is losing jobs to

foreign countriesbecauseof it. This amendmentwill reverse thatdecline.American carriers,

both cargo carriers and passenger carriers, which accept cargo will make use of this

amendment invariousways: relocationofsortandtransferoperations fromAsiabacktothe

UnitedStates;enhancedservicetoUS,Asian,andEuropeancities;increasedopportunitiesfor

integrated logisticsproductssoldbyUScompanies,andmoreopportunities tostrengthenUS

carriers through international partnering. This amendment does not create more flights by

foreigncarriers.ItdoesnotreducethenumberofflightsflownbyUScarriers.Allcargomoving

underthisauthoritymustbeshippedonaUScodeshareorsimilararrangement,suchasaUS


waybill. It preservesand createsAmerican jobs in the increasingly important global air cargo

sector”.

Brehmer (2014), in the article Rare cargo options offered at Stevens Airport, which was

publishedintheAlaskaJournalofCommercesaid,thatthankstothelittletwo-paragraphamendment

bythesenatorTedStevens,presentedandapprovedin2003,nowAnchorageairportisopentomore

businessopportunities thanvirtually anyotherhubonEarth.Healsoquoted theAnchorageAirport

managerJohnParrotthatdelineated,“Whatweweredoingistryingtofindwaystocontributetothe

efficiency of the overall global supply, specifically the supply chain that connects Asia and North

America”(Parrott,andinBrehmer,2014).

AUSDepartmentofTransportationexemptionforAlaskaintheFederalAviationAdministration

authorizationpassedin2004.Thisallowedcargolandedinthestateonitswaytoandfromthelower

48 states to be shuffled among planes and carriers at that time without being subject to federal

regulations. It is still considered tobeon its international journey. “Nowhereelse in theworld, ina

significant country, is a foreign carrier allowed topickup cargowithin a country, take it to another

placeinthatcountryandoffloadit,”Parrott(nd)inBrehmer(2014)argued.

About the location and the services thatAnchoragebrings toother countries,Duerre (2013)

statesthatintheAnchorageAirportmostofthetransportcargocomesfromAsiancountries.Parrott

(nd)asquotedbyDuerre(2013)alsoexpressesthat“AnchorageisstrategicallylocatedbetweenAsia

andthelower48statesasmostwide-bodycargoplanescarryonlyenoughfueltotravel4,000miles.

ForAsianproducts to reach theeast coast, cargoplanesmust travel twice thatdistance,butAlaska

existsin-between.So,toeffectivelyutilizetheseaircraftsallovertheworldinallmarkets,youneedan

airplanethatwillgoabout4,000milesandworkallovertheglobeaslongaswearehereasafueling


stop”.TheexceptionoftheaircabotagelawsbringsgrowthopportunitiesinAnchorageforaprocess

calledcargo-transfer.Itallowsforeigncarrierstoexchangecargoamongtheirownfleetortotransfer

cargoamongdifferentcarrierswithinUSsoil.

OneofthemostinterestingpointsthatParrot(nd)inDuerre(2013)emphasizesisthat,“TheUS

DepartmentofTransportationrecognizesthatAlaskaispartoftheUnitedStates,butitissodifferent

geographically that it can, in some cases, be treated as a separate country”. This point reflects the

similarities between Alaska and Puerto Rico (PR) in many respects. Puerto Rico is geographically

separated to the mainland, with an economic structure that differs significantly from the US. The

condition of being an island forces Puerto Rico to be extremely dependent on marine and air

transportation to trade in this globalized world. Cabotage laws have not allowed Puerto Rico to

contractforeigncarriersinordertotradewiththeUS,thefirsttradepartnerofPuertoRico.

PuertoRicoisgeographicallywelllocatedin“themiddle”ofAmerica.Thus,itisrelativelyeasy

to fly from Puerto Rico to the US, Europe, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. A

“Stevens Amendment for Puerto Rico” would help economic development in this economically

depressed island. This would allow the entry of new air cargo companies, a greater usage of its

capacityforthebenefitoftheinternationaltransport,andthecreationofnewjobs.Inadditiontothe

benefitsthattheeconomyofPuertoRicocouldobtain,theseforeignairlineswouldnotbepenalized

forstoppinginPuertoRico,whichcreatesamutualprofitablerelationship.

InaletterwrittenbyLectora(2016),thePuertoRicoTaskForceCommitteeisaskedtoconsider

an amend, such as the Stevens Amendment to reestablish a “transit-without-visa” program on the

island.Hesupportshisargumentbyexplainingthat:


“Alaska and Puerto Rico share important similarities regarding the air cargo industry, which

justify the application of the Stevens Amendment to Puerto Rico. Both are geographically

isolatedfromthemainland;therefore,bothareheavilydependenton-airtransportation.Both

havean importantstrategic locationthat is idealforan internationalaircargohub.However,

prior to 2004 Alaska could not fully utilize this geographic location advantage becausemost

cargoflightswereoverflyingthestate;thesameishappeninginPuertoRiconow.Furthermore,

planesthatmakerefuelingstopsinPuertoRicoorpickupcargocannottakefulladvantageof

cargo transferoptionsdue to limited legalauthorityandcabotage laws”. Inaddition, Lectora

(2016)explainedthat:

“The Stevens Amendment leveled the playing field for Alaska against competing airports,

makingAlaskamore attractive to domestic and foreign air carriers for cargo flights refueling

andtransfers.Alaskaisnowamajorinternationalaircargohub.Thesameshouldbedonefor

Puerto Rico. Implementing the Stevens Amendment will attract domestic and foreign air

carriersthatcouldcombinetheirnetworksontheIslandbytransferringandconsolidatingtheir

cargosbetweenairplanesandbetweenairlines.Thus,helpingcreateamajoraircargohubto

serveairtraderoutesbetweenNorthAmerica/SouthAmericaandEurope/SouthAmericaand

theMiddleEast/SouthAmerica(sic)”.

PuertoRico is indireneedofneweconomicgrowthinitiativessuchastheonesgiventoAlaskawith

theStevensAmendment.Villamil(2014)inthearticleLeydeCabotajebeneficiasoloaEstadosUnidosy

noalaIsla(CabotagelawbenefitsonlytheUnitedStatesandnottheIsland)statedthat"Wearenow

inwhatIcallan‘institutionalgap’,wherethelawsoftheUnitedStatesareadoptedtofulfillaneedfor

thatcountry,butwhenapplyingthelawtoPuertoRico,itisnotnecessarilycompatiblewithourreality,

whichresultsinunexpectedandnon-beneficialimpacts".


2. PotentialImpactofAmendingAirCabotageLawsforPuertoRico

ThereareproposalstoamendfederalregulationswiththeobjectiveofexcludingPuertoRicoof

thefederalaircabotagelaws,asachievedinAlaska.IfthisexceptionappliestotheRafaelHernández

AirportinAguadilla,whichhasthepotentialcapacityofhandlingrelativelylargeoperations,agreater

numberofpassengersandcargocouldbetransportedinthiswell-locatedairport.Theproposalwould

allowtheestablishmentofnewindustriesthatinturn,wouldcreatenewjobsandnewmoneythatwill

beinjectedintotheeconomy.Inaddition, itcouldbeofgreathelpinsettingupnewbusinessesand

subsequentjobcreation.

Figure3.1CargoandPassengersoftheTedStevensAnchorageInternationalAirport(1997to2015)

Source: Forecast Technical Report Alaska International Airport System, May 2013, 1995 to 1999 data; Activity Summary Report FY2000-2009 and 2010-2015.

InFigure3.1wecanobservethegrowththatthetotalpassengersandcargo

experiencedinAlaskaaftertheStevensAmendmentin2003(redline).Thereweresome

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Car

go (L

BS

in th

ousa

nds)

Pass

enge

rs

Period (In years)

Passengers

Cargo (LBS IN THOUSANDS)


cyclicalmovementsaround2010thatmayrespondtoexternalfactors,butingeneraltherewas

asolidgrowthinbothserieswhenweconsideredthewholeperiod1997-2015.

Infact,inTable3.1weillustratethegrowthobtainedaftertheStevensAmendment.Afterthe

cabotageamendmentsinAlaska,bothaveragecargoandaveragepassengersgrewincomparisonto

theimmediateperiodbefore.Theaverageannualcargogrewby33.1%fromtheperiod1997-2002to

theperiod2003-2009.Inthecaseofpassengers,thegrowthamountedto18%annually.

Table3.1CargoandPassengers’GrowthRateafterCabotageChanges(1997-2002and2003-2009)

Description 1997-2002 2003-2009 GrowthRate

Averageofannual

cargo(LBSin

thousands)

3,466,951 4,614,700 33.1%

Averageofannual

passengers5,016,209 5,904,590 17.7%

Source: Forecast Technical Report Alaska International Airport System, May 2013, 1995 to 1999 data; Activity Summary Report FY2000-2009 and 2010-2015.


Figure3.2EstimationofincreasesinBQNbasedongrowthratesinAlaskaafteramendments

Source: Forecast Technical Report Alaska International Airport System, May 2013, 1995 to 1999 data; Activity Summary Report FY2000-2009 and 2010-2015. Note: The * indicates projections

BasedontheAlaskaexperience,bothpassengersandcargofigureswouldincreaseinthenext

eleven(11)years.However,itisimportanttopointoutthatthisforecastedprocessyieldsconservative

figures for the following reasons: Projections shown in Figure 3.2 are solely based on the Alaska

experience;However,forsomeyearstheAlaskagrowthratesafteramendmentswerenegativewhile

theFederalAviationAdministration5projectedthatthegrowthrates,withoutassuminganychangesin

thecabotagelaws,forthefollowing11yearsinBQNwouldbecloseto1%.

5 The Federal Aviation Administration provides a forecast for BQN terminal in their webpage https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/taf/

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000 Passengers (right axis)

Cargo (left axis)


Table3.2PotentialEconomicImpactofNewPassengersinBQNBasedonAlaska’sexperience,

2016-2028

NewPassengersfrom2016to2028 289,603

AverageExpendituresbyVisitor(in2015) $757.30

AccumulatedNewDirectEconomicActivity $219.3million

AccumulatedDirectandIndirectEconomic

ActivityGenerated $403.5million

AccumulatedDirectandIndirect

EmploymentGenerated 6,045

Source:Author’scalculationsbasedonthePlanningBoardofPuertoRico

Byassumingthatthecabotageamendmentswouldhavecreatedasimilar impact inBQN,we

canproject thepotentialeconomic impactof suchamendmentsbasedon theAlaskaexperience.By

assumingso,cabotageamendmentscouldpotentiallyincreasevisitorstoPuertoRicoby17%annually

(from Table 3.1, with approximates of 290 thousand of accumulated additional visitors by 2028).

AccordingtothePlanningBoard,thetotalaverageexpendituresofvisitorswere$757dollarsin2015.

Under such scenario, the direct economic activity would represent $219.3 million dollars and the

indirecteconomicactivity(usingthe2013inputoutputmatrix)wouldamountto$184.2milliondollars.

Using input-output projections, we find that the total employment generated in Puerto Rico could

approximate 6,045. These are conservative figures because we are not considering the economic

activitygeneratedbyadditionalcargomovementandweareonlyprojectingeconomic impact inthe

Aguadillaairport,disregardingthelargestairportinPuertoRico(SJU).However,itisimportanttopoint

outthateventhisconservativeestimationofaccumulatedemploymentgeneration,isgreaterthanthe

current totalnumberofworkers inmunicipalities in theNorthwestern regionofPuertoRico (where


BQN is located) such as Quebradillas (whose employed population was 5,967 in 2014) and Rincón

(whoseemployedpopulationwas4,268).

IfPuertoRicoadheres to free trade, liberated fromthecabotage federal lawsas inAlaska, it

could have even more opportunities to the immediate economic activity: interaction with other

countries,growthoftechnologicalcapacity,andimprovementofitscompetitiveness,amongothers.


V. REFERENCES

Airports-Worldwide.(2017).RafaelHernándezAirport.Retrievedfromhttp://www.airports-

worldwide.com/puerto_rico/rafael_hernandez_puerto_rico.php.

Albarran,R.(2014).LasleyesdecabotajeenPuertoRico.Prezi.Retrievedfrom

https://prezi.com/rdhu9bjvehcc/las-leyes-de-cabotaje-en-puerto-rico/

Brehmer,E.(2014,November19).RarecargooptionsofferedatStevensAirport.AlaskaJournalof

Commerce.Retrievedfromhttp://www.alaskajournal.com/business-and-finance/2014-11-

19/rare-cargo-options-offered-stevens-airport#.WOt_dFXyuUk

Duerre,A.(2013,April2).TedSteven’sAirportManagerExcitedaboutFutureofAirCargo.Alaska

publicmedia.Retrievedfromhttp://www.alaskapublic.org/2013/04/02/ted-stevens-airport-

manager-excited-about-future-of-air-cargo/

Lectora,J.(2016,December12).Submission1:UnitedStatedSenateCommitteeonFinance.Retrieved

fromhttps://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Jeronimo%20Lectora%20

(Submission%201)EDITED.pdf

Lexicoon.(2017).Cabotaje.LexicoonOnlineEdition3.9.Retrievedfromhttp://lexicoon.org/es/cabotaje

Stevens,T.(2003-2004).S.Amdt.923toS.824.Congress.gov.Retrievedfrom

https://www.congress.gov/amendment/108th-congress/senate-amendment/923

Villamil,J.(2014).LeydeCabotajebeneficiasoloaEstadosUnidosynoalaIsla. MetroOnline.

Retrievedfromhttps://www.metro.pr/pr/economia/2014/01/30/ley-cabotaje-beneficia-

estados-unidos-no-isla.html

Documents

BQN ANALYSIS REPORT 2.8Enplanements of the MIA, SJU, and BQN Airports (FY 2014 vs FY2015)..... 27 Figure 2.1Enplanements in the BQN and MIA (CY1990 to CY2016*) ..... 28