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Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: Forecast Data. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado USA. Bri-Mathias Hodge Debra Lew Greg Brinkman. Wind Forecasting Error Distributions. Using forecast errors taken from operational systems - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
Bri-Mathias Hodge
Debra Lew
Greg Brinkman
National Renewable Energy LaboratoryGolden, Colorado USA
Western Wind and Solar Integration Study:
Forecast Data
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Wind Forecasting Error Distributions
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• Using forecast errors taken from operational systems
• Aggregated at regions that are ISO-sized
• Map errors from WWSIS 1 through a model error distribution and tweak to generate more realistic error distributions
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Mapping Forecast Errors
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WWSIS Forecast Errors Model Production Forecast Errors
95%
95%
Normalized Forecast Error Normalized Forecast Error
-1 0 1 -1 0 1
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 4
Total Capacity: 9,600 MW
κ = 0.95 γ= -0.094
WWSIS 10% Scenario Day-Ahead Forecast Errors
data10
De
nsi
ty
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
01
23
45
WWSIS I Day-Ahead Forecast Errors
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
WWSIS I Day-Ahead Forecast Errors
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Total Capacity: 18,180 MW
κ = 0.96 γ= 0.082
WWSIS 20% Scenario Day-Ahead Forecast Errors
data20
De
nsi
ty
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
01
23
45
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 6
WWSIS I Day-Ahead Forecast Errors
Total Capacity: 26,760 MW
κ = 0.92 γ= -0.103
WWSIS 30% Scenario Day-Ahead Forecast Errors
data30
De
nsi
ty
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
01
23
45
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
WWSIS 2 Day-Ahead Forecast Errors
7
Total Capacity: 69,210 MW
κ = -0.44 γ= -0.089
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 8
ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution
κ = 1.0299 γ= -0.0616
Total Capacity: ~9000 MW
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution
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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution
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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
CAISO Day-Ahead Distribution
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κ = 1.5025 γ= -0.393
Total Capacity: ~950 MW
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
CAISO Day-Ahead Distribution
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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
CAISO Day-Ahead Distribution
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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Xcel Wind Plant
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κ = 1.05 γ= -0.65
Total Capacity: ~300 MW
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Solar Forecasting Data
• Working with SUNY – Albany Atmospheric Science Research Center to get data on solar forecasting errors
• Two different forecasting services:• National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts produced
by the National Weather Service that are utilized as part of SolarAnywhere
• The Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) forecast produced by the Canadian weather service
• One year of data for day-ahead forecasts • Four sites:
• Desert Rock, NV• Boulder, CO• Fort Peck, MT• Sioux Falls, SD
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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Questions?
Bri-Mathias Hodge
303-384-6981
Debbie Lew
303-384-7037
Greg Brinkman
303-384-7390
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