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The Landuse Evolution and Impact Assessment Model. L E A M. Brian Deal LEAM Laboratory Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of Illinois. Overview. Why model? What is LEAM? Preliminary results What role does LEAM play? Next steps. What is Modeling?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Brian DealLEAM LaboratoryDepartment of Urban and Regional PlanningUniversity of IllinoisThe Landuse Evolution and Impact Assessment ModelL E A M
OverviewWhy model?What is LEAM? Preliminary resultsWhat role does LEAM play?Next steps
What is Modeling?Describing how systems behaveDescribing different system componentsDescribing different mechanisms that cause changeDescriptions are typically mathematical expressionsGraphic representations are easier to understand and manipulate
Why Model?Complex systems behave in unexpected (emergent) waysCaused by feedbacks and lagsCaused by uncertaintyUnderstanding systems requires knowingHow systems behave normallyA range of other systems behaviorsWhat-if scenarios
Why Model?The model building process is as important as the end resultHelps groups develop a shared understandingProvides a common frame of referenceHelps create institutional memory
What is LEAM?
LEAM ApproachCaptures causal mechanisms of land-use changeEnvironmental, Social, Economic Appropriate scalesCaptures dynamics of complex systemsFeedbacksLagsCaptures impacts of land use changeCausal relationshipsEnvironmental, Social, EconomicIncorporates calibration and validationQuantify uncertainty
Static Data
Proximity Measures
Development ScoreSlope MapSlope Score MapSlope Map
Chart7
0.0582
0.054698
0.051584
0.048846
0.046472
0.04445
0.042768
0.041414
0.040376
0.039642
0.0392
0.039038
0.039144
0.039506
0.040112
0.04095
0.042008
0.043274
0.046382
0.050178
0.054566
0.05945
0.064734
0.0732
0.082026
0.093794
0.107424
0.141
Normalized Probability
Distance from Open Space (meters)
Normalized Probability of Slope
os_wetland
FeatureNormalized from TrendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsFrom TrendlineNormalized from Trendline
010.1889031093295787570.18685657081normalized on this value
300.80737816380.152936650474253220.15086391510.8073781638
590.65961065190.123271249312022460.12325258450.6596106519
660.62895120940.11075233382107260.11752366620.6289512094
890.54042468020.09813377813850110.10098190250.5404246802
1190.44979394140.084631422684994410.08404695350.4497939414
1490.3824599440.073782356214827860.07146515360.382459944
1730.34215329040.065951355975397520.06393359060.3421532904
2110.29727185560.058497395106754210.05554719950.2972718556
2530.26667083110.050989407827998250.04982919710.2666708311
3040.24459799420.044502424079529220.04570474240.2445979942
3650.22526266770.0392554180310649220.04209180960.2252626677
4490.19263745140.0342164207712297560.03599557360.1926374514
5490.14408970630.0299234191514007790.02692410840.1440897063
6790.15480874820.0282084213614937840.02892703180.1548087482
8480.029046424851462695
10810.032991424661287201
14010.04444942419954324
removed last two
critical value is 679 - go flat afterward
os_wetland
0.188903
0.152936
0.123271
0.11075
0.09813
0.084631
0.073782
0.065951
0.058497
0.050989
0.044502
0.039255
0.034216
0.029923
0.028208
os_water
FeatureNormalized Probability from trendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cellsfrom TrendlineNormalized Probability from trendline
010.154903424042737450.17157754221
590.84478188590.154903424042737450.14494559970.8447818859normalized on this value
830.78770797790.147484343532329270.13515299880.7877079779
1070.73399520140.134554332112468230.12593709270.7339952014
1330.67948479580.118395366063091850.11658433120.6794847958
1730.60280986930.101019424654203650.10342863580.6028098693
2110.53767107460.087266392384496380.09225228150.5376710746
2530.47392708080.074673418195600310.08131524370.4739270808
2990.41344622720.067323397245900520.07093808750.4134462272
3480.35899550250.058179412437088950.0615955660.3589955025
4020.30992013860.05214412287907230.05317533570.3099201386
4680.26391190320.046019420569138770.04528135570.2639119032
5390.22936751170.042043384419143170.03935431390.2293675117
6230.20508335840.0377574210911152750.03518769860.2050833584
7230.19402718910.0351444221812012890.03329070820.1940271891
8440.19688786320.0338884230512483930.03378153570.1968878632
9960.20725650770.0330674191912676960.03556056220.2072565077
11970.19252001370.0336344244112618580.03303211080.1925200137
removed last two
Critical value = 1200
os_water
0.154903
0.154903
0.147484
0.134554
0.118395
0.101019
0.087266
0.074673
0.067323
0.058179
0.05214
0.046019
0.042043
0.037757
0.035144
0.033888
0.033067
0.033634
os_forest
FeatureNormalized ProbabilityProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cellsfrom trendlineNormalized Probability
010.07177129799241519880.07202445231normalized on this value
300.94084191890.06363311999018856520.06776362390.9408419189
420.91788025370.06645473537126100.06610982260.9178802537
600.88418943510.061589428056950110.06368325980.8841894351
670.87133104980.064419436286772500.06275714160.8713310498
930.82476566770.060124393166539130.05940329550.8247656677
1070.80047151960.060635230333798660.05765352280.8004715196
1220.77504759450.057433325805672700.05582237850.7750475945
1490.73086305560.055333330915980320.05264001130.7308630556
1730.69329171610.050588376587444020.04993395610.6932917161
2150.63140049160.04385396789048670.04547627460.6314004916
3040.516479350.0343354224212302890.03719914230.51647935
8060.28125335280.0205644245020642730.02025711870.2812533528
24810.0171648152474953
806 is critical value
removed all 6 2481 zero values
os_forest
0.071771
0.063633
0.06645
0.061589
0.064419
0.060124
0.060635
0.057433
0.055333
0.050588
0.04385
0.034335
0.020564
os_res
Featurenormalized from trendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized ProbabilityProbability from Trend linenormalized from trendline
00.36865107090.0299624401714690730.22000631480.05012220290.3686510709
410.35173511980.045266389238598700.33238121110.04782229170.3517351198
660.34280092670.058313348225971560.42818330680.0466075890.3428009267
930.334276850.057527364396334280.42241183080.04544864620.33427685
1330.32370376360.052731401517614340.38719554730.04401111780.3237037636
1810.31407814050.04648405188717210.34129542470.04270240760.3140781405
2400.30649442060.041023401409784790.30122552080.04167131670.3064944206
3070.30306135070.0374654139411048640.27509967910.04120455280.3030613507
3900.30559830180.0360884062611257620.26498858190.04154947940.3055983018
4830.31614365510.0374544232111299590.27501890780.04298323720.3161436551
5880.33615801890.042284417189866140.3104848480.0457044120.3361580189
6940.36329419250.049211423538606480.36134873370.04939387580.3632941925
8150.40061223470.05498424367718440.40370960520.05446767770.4006122347
9470.44651481840.062836418546660850.46139499360.06070864320.4465148184
10930.50068523710.071622423555913690.52590922780.06807371260.5006852371
12650.56550433310.078508422925387000.57647205680.07688658780.5655043331
14740.64128575460.086159424014921240.63265216210.08718991270.6412857546
17380.72764233820.097559424384349970.71636059240.09893104830.7276423382
20880.8262838170.112127424153782780.8233311550.11234245170.826283817
265510.1361874240331135910.1359610941normalized on this value
nothing
critical value = 2655
os_res
0.029962
0.045266
0.058313
0.057527
0.052731
0.04648
0.041023
0.037465
0.036088
0.037454
0.042284
0.049211
0.05498
0.062836
0.071622
0.078508
0.086159
0.097559
0.112127
0.136187
sloperetry
0.3686510709
0.3517351198
0.3428009267
0.33427685
0.3237037636
0.3140781405
0.3064944206
0.3030613507
0.3055983018
0.3161436551
bados_slope
0.3686510709
0.3517351198
0.3428009267
0.33427685
0.3237037636
0.3140781405
0.3064944206
0.3030613507
os_road
FeatureValues from TrendlineProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cellsnormalized probability from trendlineValues from Trendline
00.05820.07808222428228723930.41276595740.0582
10.0546980.0446028454518955300.3879290780.054698
20.0515840.0436445338112230890.36584397160.051584
30.0488460.039245389679929140.34642553190.048846
40.0464720.041055304607419310.32958865250.046472
50.044450.042553282276633450.3152482270.04445
60.0427680.04337254975878980.30331914890.042768
70.0414140.044141225575110180.29371631210.041414
80.0403760.044247210824764580.28635460990.040376
90.0396420.044408200984525780.28114893620.039642
100.03920.043803185414232810.27801418440.0392
110.0390380.043511177884088150.27686524820.039038
120.0391440.04248157103698240.27761702130.039144
130.0395060.041781146193499000.28018439720.039506
140.0401120.042017136583250600.28448226950.040112
150.040950.041174124003011640.29042553190.04095
160.0420080.041817117952820600.2979290780.042008
170.0432740.042898114072659090.30690780140.043274
190.0463820.044479208214681070.32895035460.046382
210.0501780.04755186893930410.35587234040.050178
230.0545660.054076176003254660.38699290780.054566
250.059450.060717163452691990.42163120570.05945
270.0647340.068872150102179400.4591063830.064734
300.07320.080628205092543660.51914893620.0732
330.0820260.094194182361936010.58174468090.082026
370.0937940.107394204331902620.66520567380.093794
420.1074240.122233189771552530.76187234040.107424
700.1410.1410591833412997410.141
value 70 uses different trendline
42 is critical value to stop 3rd order regression
70 starts with linear regression
os_road
0.0780820.122233
0.0446020.141059
0.043644
0.039245
0.041055
0.042553
0.04337
0.044141
0.044247
0.044408
0.043803
0.043511
0.04248
0.041781
0.042017
0.041174
0.041817
0.042898
0.044479
0.04755
0.054076
0.060717
0.068872
0.080628
0.094194
0.107394
0.122233
os_grass
FeatureProbability# Land Use Cells# Total Cells
00.07808222428228723930.6083616418
10.0446028454518955300.3475083367
20.0436445338112230890.3400442547
30.039245389679929140.3057702496
40.041055304607419310.319872534
50.042553282276633450.3315439274
60.04337254975878980.3379094337
70.044141225575110180.3439165394
90.044326411809290360.3453579331
110.04366363298320960.3401689158
130.04214303297197240.3283261134
160.041675378539082840.3247031508
200.044403417439401000.3459578646
240.053568350396540990.4173652881
290.070794369775223200.5515785209
360.096801405724191300.7542073114
700.128348420303274691normalized on this value
removed last 3 - all 241 with zeros
os_grass
0.0780820.096801
0.0446020.128348
0.043644
0.039245
0.041055
0.042553
0.04337
0.044141
0.044326
0.04366
0.04214
0.041675
0.044403
0.053568
0.070794
0.096801
os_com_ind
FeatureNormalized ProbabilityProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized Probability
00.15362603710.028293184176509490.1536260371
290.15362603710.028293184176509490.1536260371
590.17602949480.0324193855111891350.1760294948
890.20170170710.0371473853910374840.2017017071
1220.19250358370.0354534234311943580.1925035837
1680.22187350680.0408624166310195920.2218735068
2090.22066265580.040639339678358280.2206626558
2460.21403826940.0394194234810742940.2140382694
2990.23845619220.043916392878946010.2384561922
3480.22764541070.041925416169926400.2276454107
4010.23907519220.04403417359478720.2390751922
4560.26166869380.048191414038591500.2616686938
5230.2714315190.049989422858458870.271431519
5990.29031102040.053466405887591390.2903110204
6750.3136484080.057764418597246540.313648408
7650.35315038440.065039420996472880.3531503844
8710.42487294210.078248419155356680.4248729421
9890.53307306370.098175407334149010.5330730637
11340.62257829810.114659424703704020.6225782981
13220.77241974720.142255422432969530.7724197472
159510.184168424652305781normalized on this value
did nothing
os_com_ind
0.028293
0.032419
0.037147
0.035453
0.040862
0.040639
0.039419
0.043916
0.041925
0.04403
0.048191
0.049989
0.053466
0.057764
0.065039
0.078248
0.098175
0.114659
0.142255
0.184168
Probability
os_ag
0.1536260371
0.1536260371
0.1760294948
0.2017017071
0.1925035837
0.2218735068
0.2206626558
0.2140382694
0.2384561922
0.2276454107
0.2390751922
0.2616686938
0.271431519
0.2903110204
0.313648408
0.3531503844
0.4248729421
0.5330730637
0.6225782981
0.7724197472
1
normalized probability
normalized probability
os_flood
0.028293
0.028293
0.032419
0.037147
0.035453
0.040862
0.040639
0.039419
0.043916
0.041925
0.04403
0.048191
0.049989
0.053466
0.057764
0.065039
0.078248
0.098175
0.114659
0.142255
0.184168
os_wetland_graph
FeatureProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized Probability
00.154063616444001231normalized on this value
410.088667403324548710.5755242985
830.060351416856907120.3917293575
1260.047966398078299090.311340166
1880.044082396809001410.2861297002
2550.041355409809909300.2684291491
3340.0381044080710709490.247327392
4230.037184138511131120.2413298456
5220.0379364151310942930.246236929
6340.0390444220510809580.2534287921
7630.0410284229810309540.2663066408
9050.043809423169659200.2843576978
10640.048405420218681050.3141896497
12550.051933421948124710.3370893725
14860.05471424417757410.3551144662
17480.063978424066628180.4152716746
20390.077394421685448510.5023529335
23810.089671423054717820.5820411131
29040.092436424954597220.5999883165
removed last value - outlier at 7000
os_wetland_graph
0.154063
0.088667
0.060351
0.047966
0.044082
0.041355
0.038104
0.03718
0.037936
0.039044
0.041028
0.043809
0.048405
0.051933
0.05471
0.063978
0.077394
0.089671
0.092436
2904
Probability
os_water_graph
1
0.5755242985
0.3917293575
0.311340166
0.2861297002
0.2684291491
0.247327392
0.2413298456
0.246236929
0.2534287921
0.2663066408
0.2843576978
0.3141896497
0.3370893725
0.3551144662
0.4152716746
0.5023529335
0.5820411131
0.5999883165
dist
norm prob
norm
os_forest_graph
0.154063
0.088667
0.060351
0.047966
0.044082
0.041355
0.038104
0.03718
0.037936
0.039044
0.041028
0.043809
0.048405
0.051933
0.05471
0.063978
0.077394
0.089671
0.092436
os_res_graph
FeatureProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized Probability
00.035399351029916140.4353210276
410.035399351029916140.4353210276
890.051708384707439820.6358817959
1330.059011418557092760.725690815
1810.057656390716776580.7090276326
2400.052961410727755190.651290628
3040.048596420308648850.5976118155
3830.045228421959329390.5561936618
4670.04345422619726330.5343286152
5620.04273423259905130.5254743781
6630.043843423239653270.5391615529
7810.044482422579499700.5470196884
9110.047722424118887170.5868637554
10480.054407422987774400.6690728876
11990.060954423096941180.7495849576
13730.064902423836530260.7981356912
15690.071354421845911910.8774794938
18020.078315424705422940.9630827502
21000.081317423715210621normalized on this value
25460.078729424725394730.9681739366
35440.070806424896000750.8707404356
nothing
os_res_graph
0.035399
0.051708
0.059011
0.057656
0.052961
0.048596
0.045228
0.04345
0.04273
0.043843
0.044482
0.047722
0.054407
0.060954
0.064902
0.071354
0.078315
0.081317
0.078729
0.070806
Probability
os_slope_graph
0.4353210276
0.4353210276
0.6358817959
0.725690815
0.7090276326
0.651290628
0.5976118155
0.5561936618
0.5343286152
0.5254743781
0.5391615529
0.5470196884
0.5868637554
0.6690728876
0.7495849576
0.7981356912
0.8774794938
0.9630827502
1
0.9681739366
0.8707404356
norm
dist
norm
y = -1E-04x4 + 0.0043x3 - 0.0629x2 + 0.3335x + 0.0982R2 = 0.9639
FeatureProbability# Land Use Cells# Total CellsNormalized Probability
00.03400424788372899220.3264906385
300.05664610750218977790.5438886222
590.06592369865610720.6329332693
660.063775335105254410.6123379741
830.068549321124684520.6581757081
930.066903298624463510.6423715795
1190.071794330654605520.6893326932
1490.072304360394984370.6942294767
1790.077062390565068110.7399135862
2270.082072405494940690.7880172828
2990.088467424474798080.8494191071
4010.096712423534379310.9285837734
5720.10415424604076811normalized on this value
9110.094896424354471750.9111473836
31650.053245424957981070.5112337974
42180.0583991214207880.5607201152
removed 4 4218 values with zeros
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Probability
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Agriculture Probability
Distance from Feature (Meters)
Normalized Probability
Agriculture Probability
Total OSOS in Flood ZoneOS in non Flood ZoneTotal Flood Zone CellsTotal Non Flood CellsOS in Flood FrequencyOS in non Flood FrequencyNotmalized Score-FloodNotmalized Score-Non Flood
8499683989884509802691707130486690.14822861480.034561379410.2331626687
chance that flood zone area is OS
chance that non-flood zone area is OS
FeatureNormalized from Trendline
01
300.8073781638
590.6596106519
660.6289512094
890.5404246802
1190.4497939414
1490.382459944
1730.3421532904
2110.2972718556
2530.2666708311
3040.2445979942
3650.2252626677
4490.1926374514
5490.1440897063
6790.1548087482
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wetland Probability
Distance from Open Space (meters)
Normalized Probability
Normalized Probability of Wetland Location
FeatureNormalized Probability from trendline
01
590.8447818859
830.7877079779
1070.7339952014
1330.6794847958
1730.6028098693
2110.5376710746
2530.4739270808
2990.4134462272
3480.3589955025
4020.3099201386
4680.2639119032
5390.2293675117
6230.2050833584
7230.1940271891
8440.1968878632
9960.2072565077
11970.1925200137
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Water
Distance from Open Space (meters)
Normalized Probability
Normalized Probability of Water Location
FeatureNormalized Probability
01
300.9408419189
420.9178802537
600.8841894351
670.8713310498
930.8247656677
1070.8004715196
1220.7750475945
1490.7308630556
1730.6932917161
2150.6314004916
3040.51647935
8060.2812533528
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Distance from Open Space (meters)
Normalized Probability
Normalized Probability of Forest Location
Featurenormalized from trendline
00.3686510709
410.3517351198
660.3428009267
930.33427685
1330.3237037636
1810.3140781405
2400.3064944206
3070.3030613507
3900.3055983018
4830.3161436551
5880.3361580189
6940.3632941925
8150.4006122347
9470.4465148184
10930.5006852371
12650.5655043331
14740.6412857546
17380.7276423382
20880.826283817
26551
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Distance from Open Space (meters)
Normalized Probability
Normalized Probability of Residential Location
FeatureValues from Trendline
00.0582
10.054698
20.051584
30.048846
40.046472
50.04445
60.042768
70.041414
80.040376
90.039642
100.0392
110.039038
120.039144
130.039506
140.040112
150.04095
160.042008
170.043274
190.046382
210.050178
230.054566
250.05945
270.064734
300.0732
330.082026
370.093794
420.107424
700.141
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Normalized Probability
Distance from Open Space (meters)
Normalized Probability of Slope
mcLEAM Preliminary Results
McHenry County
Base 2030Yellow/Red is new growth
LEAM baseOverlay on Natural resource inventory
LEAM base runOn Common Ground plan
Scenario AnalysisLEAM analysis of Public policy choicesPublic investmentsI-90 Interchange at US23Current condition vs added interchange
Comparison mapHigh growth run
LEAMs Role in Planning?
LEAMs RoleLegacy PlanningBroader applications
Legacy Planning ApplicationsResource risk assessmentConflict emergence over timeDynamic interactions
Broader Planning ApplicationsBeyond Legacy planningAssessing future outcomesPublic policy InvestmentsWhat-if scenariosAssessing implicationsSOPDynamic planningUncovering inconsistencies
Next StepsBreak Out SessionsGroups of approx eight Local expertise and experience Set of diverse maps are providedResource inventory mapsAgricultural Resources, Cultural Resources, Natural ResourcesSystem-of-Plans mapsRegion, County, Southwest portion, Marengo, Huntley, UnifiedLEAM land-use change mapsBase run, New Ramp scenario, Comparing land-use pattern with regional plans, Comparing land-use pattern with resource inventoriesAre these building blocks more generally useful to planning in McHenry County? What improvements can be made to them?
Break Out SessionsSession 1Consider how the resource inventory, the System of Plans, and LEAM simulations can be used to create elements of a Local Legacy plan in McHenry County.1. Are the data in the resource inventories correct? What additional data about resources are needed?2. Which resources are already protected? Which resources are addressed in plans? Which resources are not addressed?
Break Out SessionsSession 2New interchange on I-90 at US 23 in southwest McHenry County. 1. How does this proposal relate to other proposals or expectations in existing plans? Are there interesting differences among existing plans in terms of expected land uses, regulations, and capital investments?2. How might the System of Plans, LEAM, or the Legacy Plan help you usefully discuss and persuasively oppose or support this proposal?