Bridging The Divide Bridging The Divide Between Climate Change Between Climate Change and Human Developmentand Human Development

Thomas AckerThomas Acker

Adrian DavenportAdrian Davenport

Dean Howard SmithDean Howard Smith

Veerle Vandeweerd UNDP Veerle Vandeweerd UNDP

There is a broad global consensus that the There is a broad global consensus that the severity of the climate change problem severity of the climate change problem will have profound and lasting impacts on will have profound and lasting impacts on human well being and economic human well being and economic development, particularly amongst those development, particularly amongst those countries and communities that have countries and communities that have contributed the least to the problem, and contributed the least to the problem, and have the least capacities to adapt to the have the least capacities to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.adverse impacts of climate change.

IPCC ConcernsIPCC Concerns

Many millions more people are projected Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerableislands are especially vulnerable

AfricaAfrica By 2020, between By 2020, between 75 and 250 75 and 250

million people are projected to be million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. If stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.exacerbate water-related problems.

AfricaAfricaAgricultural production, Agricultural production, including access to including access to food, in many African food, in many African countries and regions countries and regions is projected to be is projected to be severely compromised severely compromised by climate variability by climate variability and change… In some and change… In some countries, yields from countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.to 50% by 2020.

AfricaAfricaLocal food supplies are projected to be Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes due to rising water resources in large lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued over-fishing.continued over-fishing.

Lake Chad 1963 2007

AfricaAfricaNew studies New studies confirm that Africa confirm that Africa is one of the most is one of the most vulnerable vulnerable continents to continents to climate variability climate variability and change and change because of because of multiple stresses multiple stresses and low adaptive and low adaptive capacity. capacity.

“Get up Joe, we’re leaving.”

Dean was LeavingDean was LeavingThis is the project I want to developThis is the project I want to develop

Tom, Mason, Neil and others talked me into staying

The Global HeartacheThe Global Heartache No community with a sense of justice, No community with a sense of justice, compassion or respect for basic human compassion or respect for basic human rights should accept the current rights should accept the current pattern of adaptation. Leaving the pattern of adaptation. Leaving the world’s poor to sink or swim with their world’s poor to sink or swim with their own meagre resources in the face of own meagre resources in the face of the threat posed by climate change is the threat posed by climate change is morally wrong. We are drifting into a morally wrong. We are drifting into a world of ‘adaptation apartheid’.world of ‘adaptation apartheid’.Desmond TutuDesmond Tutu

World Bank (Old Data)World Bank (Old Data)

1.6 billion people have no access to 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity. electricity.

Bridging the Divide Between Poverty Reduction and Climate Change Through Sustainable and Innovative Energy Technologies

SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INNOVATIONS THAT CAN ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS AND POVERTY REDUCTION NEEDSDecember 2009

Dr. Anilla CherianUNDP

“Climate change will affect every aspect of human life, and disproportionately on those poorer and more vulnerable countries and communities, that have contributed the least to the causes.”

“Increasing and improving access to cost-effective, innovative, and sustainable energy technologies for the poor is critical for addressing both climate change and poverty reduction concerns in many developing countries.”

“International cooperation on adaptation can be thought of as an insurance mechanism for the world’s poor…For governments concerned with achieving progress toward the MDGs over the next decade and building on that progress afterwards, adaptation is the only option for limiting the damage caused by existing climate change.”

Millennium Development GoalsMillennium Development GoalsBy 2015?By 2015?

Eradicate extreme poverty and Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerhunger

Achieve universal primary educationAchieve universal primary education Promote gender equality and Promote gender equality and

empower womenempower women Reduce child mortalityReduce child mortality

Millennium Development GoalsMillennium Development Goals

Improve mental healthImprove mental health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other

diseasesdiseases Ensure environmental stabilityEnsure environmental stability Develop a global partnership for Develop a global partnership for

developmentdevelopment

2010 MDG Report2010 MDG Report

"It is clear that improvements in the "It is clear that improvements in the lives of the poor have been lives of the poor have been unacceptably slow, and some hard-unacceptably slow, and some hard-won gains are being eroded by the won gains are being eroded by the climate, food and economic crises," climate, food and economic crises," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon

What is your Reality?

The ConcernsThe Concerns Indoor cookingIndoor cooking

– Over 2 million Over 2 million deaths per yeardeaths per year

Potable water Potable water – Extreme diseaseExtreme disease– Distances to carryDistances to carry

Food stressFood stress Overall healthOverall health EducationEducation Singing and Singing and

dancingdancing

UNDPUNDP

A clear positive A clear positive causative causative correlation correlation between energy between energy access and use access and use and the and the resulting level of resulting level of development development

This woman walks 12 km one way daily for water. How productive is she earning a living?

The Kenya DesignThe Kenya Design 200 houses200 houses 100 Kw wind turbine100 Kw wind turbine Hydro pumping and Hydro pumping and

co-generationco-generation HH22O pumping and O pumping and

desalinationdesalination IrrigationIrrigation Grain millGrain mill Compressed air Compressed air

vehiclevehicle Design on boardDesign on board

BP Solar SPOTSBP Solar SPOTS

Home lighting has Home lighting has increased the productivity increased the productivity of households primarily of households primarily because of the 4 to 5.5 because of the 4 to 5.5 additional hours put into additional hours put into traditional income traditional income generating activities. generating activities.

The incidence of The incidence of waterborne diseases in waterborne diseases in SPOTS areas has SPOTS areas has decreased from 17.72% decreased from 17.72% (2003) to 0.9% (2005).(2003) to 0.9% (2005).

The provision of solar powered vaccine refrigerator for healthcenters has increased the accessibility of health services.

Street lights have also encouraged the expansion of business activities from within the confines of thehomes to the roadsides.

Introduction of electric lighting systems in 80 schools increasededucational performance and allowed for adult education in the evening.

More than 80 cooperatives createdunder SPOTS 1 are generating income from the operation of severalbusinesses.

More than 350 “Solar Operators”, of which about 100 are women, have been trained to maintain and repair the systems.

Measures of SuccessMeasures of Success

In class exerciseIn class exercise Take 4 minutesTake 4 minutes Utility max?Utility max? Barbara Ward (1962)Barbara Ward (1962)

– QuoteQuote What does it take to sing and dance?What does it take to sing and dance?

UNPP Projections (2008) UNPP Projections (2008) (thousands)(thousands)

2010 6 908 688

2015 7 302 186

2020 7 674 833

2025 8 011 533

2030 8 308 895

2035 8 570 570

2040 8 801 196

2045 8 996 344

2050 9 149 984

How many are too many?

Obama at CopenhagenObama at Copenhagen

We must have financing that helps We must have financing that helps developing countries adapt, developing countries adapt, particularly the least-developed and particularly the least-developed and most vulnerable to climate change. most vulnerable to climate change. America will be a part of fast-start America will be a part of fast-start funding that will ramp up to $10 funding that will ramp up to $10 billion in 2012. billion in 2012.

More PromisesMore Promises

And, yesterday, And, yesterday, Secretary Clinton Secretary Clinton made it clear that made it clear that we will engage in a we will engage in a global effort to global effort to mobilize $100 billion mobilize $100 billion in financing by 2020, in financing by 2020, if - and only if - it is if - and only if - it is part of the broader part of the broader accord that I have accord that I have just described.just described. Her Reality?

Can it be Achieved?Can it be Achieved?

Mitigation. Transparency. And Mitigation. Transparency. And financing. It is a clear formula - one financing. It is a clear formula - one that embraces the principle of that embraces the principle of common but differentiated responses common but differentiated responses and respective capabilities. And it and respective capabilities. And it adds up to a significant accord - one adds up to a significant accord - one that takes us farther than we have that takes us farther than we have ever gone before as an international ever gone before as an international community.community. December 18, 2009, Copenhagen

UN Climate Change Conference 2009.

Basic EconomicsBasic Economics

Link the revenues Link the revenues from the cap & from the cap & trade programs that trade programs that internalize the internalize the externalities to the externalities to the actual adaptation actual adaptation and mitigation costs and mitigation costs arising from climate arising from climate change.change.

Solar pumps in Africaincrease agriculturalproductivity andaccess to water.Courtesy of UNEP.

Our GuessOur Guess

Obama meant $100 billion Obama meant $100 billion per yearper year

Tim Flannery’s ModelTim Flannery’s Model

Use Ebay-type auctions to buy/sell Use Ebay-type auctions to buy/sell COCO2 2 permits for reforestation in permits for reforestation in Central AmericaCentral America

Villages build business plansVillages build business plans Satellite and blogs for verificationSatellite and blogs for verification Coordinate via Greenpeace or WWFCoordinate via Greenpeace or WWF

Some Simple, but Chunky, MathSome Simple, but Chunky, Math

200 houses per village200 houses per village 5 people per household5 people per household 1,600,000,000 Number of people in 1,600,000,000 Number of people in

need of electricityneed of electricity 1,600,000 number of villages1,600,000 number of villages

$100,000,000,000 Per Year$100,000,000,000 Per Year

cost per village 1 million 2.5 million 5 million

villages 100,000

40,000

20,000

houses 20,000,000

8,000,000

4,000,000

people per year 100,000,000

40,000,000

20,000,000

total needing electricity

1,600,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,600,000,000

# of years 16 40 80

ME 451 class project, Fall 2010Recall, there are no manufacturers!

World Energy Outlook 2009World Energy Outlook 2009

OECD countries energy related OECD countries energy related emissionsemissions

Target 7,700,000,000 gigatonnesTarget 7,700,000,000 gigatonnes Target the 450 ppm scenarioTarget the 450 ppm scenario

– Many feel this is very highMany feel this is very high Target $50/tonne carbon valuationTarget $50/tonne carbon valuation $385,000,000,000 total revenue per $385,000,000,000 total revenue per

yearyear Don’t begin until 2030Don’t begin until 2030

$385 Billion per year$385 Billion per year

cost per village 1 million 2.5 million 5 million

villages 385,000 154,000 77,000

houses 77,000,000 30,800,000 15,400,000

people per year 385,000,000 154,000,000 77,000,000 total needing electricity 1,600,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,600,000,000 # of years 4.16 10.39 20.78

Strange presumption that all revenues go to this project

Step FashionStep Fashion

cost per village 1 million 2.5 million 5 million

by 2030 1,000,000,000

400,000,000

200,000,000

needed after 2030 600,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

years post 2030 1.6 7.8 18.2

$100B/year starting in 2020 and then $385B/year

Weak AssumptionsWeak Assumptions

All money will go to the electrification All money will go to the electrification projectsprojects– No additional expenses for adaptation or No additional expenses for adaptation or

mitigationmitigation No increase in electricity needsNo increase in electricity needs

– All new population has no needAll new population has no need No replacements over the project lifeNo replacements over the project life Recall: 75-250 million in Africa alone Recall: 75-250 million in Africa alone

priorprior to 2020 in food and water stress to 2020 in food and water stress

Conclusion Conclusion

Climate change will have serious Climate change will have serious consequences for those least able to consequences for those least able to adapt.adapt.

COE charges can be used to COE charges can be used to ameliorate the situation by providing ameliorate the situation by providing access to clean electricity and access to clean electricity and energyenergy

The timing simply doesn’t workThe timing simply doesn’t work

NeedNeed

As Tim Flannery says “Now or Never.” As Tim Flannery says “Now or Never.” For many families: never.For many families: never.

People under water (too much and/or People under water (too much and/or too little) and food stress simply have too little) and food stress simply have to move.to move.

Where will they go?Where will they go? Matt deQueljoe’s new projectMatt deQueljoe’s new project http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/h

dr2009/