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REPORT

JULY 2015

…promoting democratic accountability in Nigeria

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ACRONYMS

APC – All Progressives Congress

AU – African Union

CCB – Code of Conduct Bureau

CDD – Centre for Democracy and Development

EFCC – Economic and Financial Crimes Commission

EU – European Union

GEJ – Goodluck Ebele Jonathan

ICPC – Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission

MCCC – Military Command and Control Centre

MNJTF – Multi-National Joint Task Force

PMB – President Muhammadu Buhari

PTFP – Presidential Task Force on Power

TAM – Turn Around Maintenance

USA – United States of America

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TABLE OF CONTENT

Contents

ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................. 2

TABLE OF CONTENT ................................................................................................................................. 3

I. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................... Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

II. METHODOLOGY ....................................................................... Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

III. SNAP-SHOT OF 60 DAY ACCOMPLISHMENTS ........................ Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

IV. ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE ............................................... Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

Security ....................................................................................... Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

Corruption ................................................................................... Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

Infrastructure .............................................................................. Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

Oil and Gas .................................................................................. Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

V. UNEVEN ACHIEVEMENTS ......................................................... Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

VI. ABOUT BUHARIMETER ......................................................... Ошибка! Закладка не определена.

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I. INTRODUCTION

The July 2015 report is a second of many report cards on the performance of President

Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) and his party, All Progressives Congress (APC), on the delivery of

campaigns promises made in the run-up to the 2015 general elections. Most of these promises

are documented in the APC Manifesto: My Covenant with Nigerians; newspaper reports and

videos clips on the campaign trail. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD)

developed the Buharimeter as a tool for rating the performance of the government, based on

the tracked campaign promises.

Within the reporting period, CDD updated the campaign promises on the tracking platform,

which resulted in an increase in the number of promises, from 172 to 222. A feature has also

been uploaded to the platform urging citizens to submit missing promises with verifiable

evidence.

60 days into the PMB/APC led-government, progress on the delivery of campaign promises

have largely been made in four sectors, including security; corruption; oil and gas; and

infrastructure (power), with the remaining promises unrated. A total of 6 Promises are

ONGOING. They represent a 75 percent increase from the first 30 day report card, with 216

NOT RATED. No promise is either ACHIEVED or NOT ACHIEVED as it was the case in the first

month (June).

II. METHODOLOGY

The monitoring of PMB’s tracked campaign promises was conducted by CDD. Data were

collated through the daily monitoring of print and electronic media. An expert analysis on

sectorial issues were undertaken; and citizens’ views, as expressed in the media, were

systematically rated, before making judgment calls on the status of the implementation of

specific promises. Weekly in-house reports were also prepared for the purpose of trend

monitoring. These reports are the building blocks for the monthly reports, for which a database

was created.

III. SNAPSHOT OF 60 DAY ACCOMPLISHMENTS

The progress rating bar chart below provides a snapshot of government’s accomplishments in

the first 60 days in office. At a glance, we can see that, out of the tracked 222 campaign

promises, the government made progress towards the achievement of 6 of them, which

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suggests that the government is yet to make noticeable steps towards the achievement of the

other 216 campaign promises.

0

0

6

216

Achieved

Not Achieved

Ongoing

Not Rated

0 50 100 150 200 250

Progress Rating

17

1 0 00

5

10

15

20

Infrastructure (18)

Infrastructur

e (18)

10

1 0 00

5

10

15

Oil&Gas (11)

Oil & Gas (11)

12

1

0

0

Not Rated

Ongoing

Achieved

Not…

0 10 20

Corruption (13)

Corruption

(13)

19

3

0

0

0 10 20

Not Rated

Ongoing

Achieved

Not…

Security (22)

Security (22)

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Timeline (May 29 – 31 July 2015)

May 29 – Boko Haram invaded Maiduguri, Borno

May 30 – Nigeria military repelled overnight attack in

Maiduguri, Borno

May 31 – Boko Haram attacked Fika and Ngalda town,

Yobe&GamboruNgala Market, Borno

June 2 – Suicide bomb attack in Maiduguri, Borno

June 3 – Buhari visits Niger

June 4 – Buhari visits Chad

June 4 – Nigeria military, civilian foiled attack in Maiduguri,

Borno

June 7 – Buhari leaves for G7 meeting in Germany

June 8 – Nigeria military moves command centre to

Maiduguri

June 20 – Soldiers exchanged fire with suspected Boko

Haram members in Kaduna

June 28 – Suicide bomb explosion in Chadian Capital

July 7 – Bomb Blast in Zaria

July 8 – Nigerian troop arrests mastermind of aria bombing

July 11 – Military repel attack in Yobe

July 13 – Boko Haram attacks Mainok Town in Borno

July 15 – Boko Haram killed 45 villagers in a bid to seize

highway to Borno

July 20 – Buhari visits USA

July 27 – 29 killed in Boko Haram attack in Borno village

July 28 – Nigerian Army Repel Boko Haram in Buratai,

Borno

July 28 – Nigerian Army rescues 30 people in Dikwa

July 29 – Buhari visits Cameroon

July 30 – Army rescues 59 Borno villagers from Sambisa

forest

IV. ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE

Security

In the period under review, the government made noticeable efforts to mitigate the wave of

attacks by the Boko Haram (BH) insurgents in North-East Nigeria. PMB started-off by

announcing the relocation of the Military Command and Control Centre (MCCC) from Abuja to

Borno State – the epicentre of the Boko Haram insurgency1. This was followed by the reopening

of discussions with member States of the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) and the

international communities. PMB visited Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Benin, Germany (G7 summit),

Addis Ababa (AU meeting), the United States of

America (USA), amongst others, to hold talk with

African and world leaders to fashion out ways to

collaboratively end the BH insurgency.

The Buharimeter shows that PMB is making

progress on his promises on National Security and

Defence, compared to other sectors.

Available evidence shows renewed commitment

amongst leaders of the Lake Chad Basin

Commission, Benin and the Western countries; and

coherence in military strategies to wage war against

the transnational terrorists group. This renewed

approach is actually yielding fruit. For instance,

Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Nigeria ratified an

agreement that allows their military forces to

pursue Boko Haram militants across their respective

borders. Cameroon further ratified the cross-border

military engagement and pledged additional 2,450

troops to fight Boko Haram.

This renewed regional cooperation and the MNJTF

platform have foiled some Boko Haram attacks2. The Nigerian Military also rescued some

kidnapped persons from the den of the insurgents3. However, within the last 2 months, there

1See Buharimeter monthly fact sheet June 2015

2Amidst reports on the heinous attacks by Boko Haram, there are news reports on the recent counter-attacks by

the Nigeria military to repel the insurgents’ attacks in the Northern Nigeria. For example, Daily Trust (July 11, 2015)

and ThisDay (July 15, 2015) reported that a renewed onslaught on Yobe State by suspected Boko Haram members

was repelled by the Nigeria military. More so, Punch, Daily Independent and Channels TV (all of July 28, 2015)

reported a statement from the Acting Director of the Army Public Relations saying that the military foiled two

attempts by suspected Boko Haram insurgents to attack Buratai, a town in Borno State.

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have been over 25 successful attacks and bomb explosions which claimed a death toll of over

700 people and caused the destruction of properties worth millions of naira.

Corruption

Under the corruption heading, Buharimeter rated only one (1) of the thirteen (13) tracked

promises as ongoing. The President and the Vice President have declared their assets and

liabilities with the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB). However, no progress was made in the

promise to publicly declare assets and encourage appointees to publicly declare their assets.

Little has been broached since the statement from the Presidency declaring that assets would

be publicly released after verification by the CCB. Nonetheless, none of his appointees has

publicly declared their assets.

An observable trend in the period under review is the efforts made by the PMB administration

to address the issue of corruption, even though these efforts cannot be tied to any of the listed

promises. For instance, under the auspices of a ‘corruption probe’4, efforts were largely

targeted at dismantling the setup that had previously engendered financial maladministration,

and at recovering looted funds. This development cannot be tied to PMB’s promise to work

with the National Assembly to strengthen the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission

(EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC),

and make them particularly independent financially, with robust prosecutorial capacity while

guaranteeing security of tenure of offices. This however requires an amendment of the laws

establishing the anti-graft agencies; and no noticeable move has been made to this effect.

A lot of the actions were tone setting in nature; notable is the significant involvement of some

foreign states in the overall anticorruption strategy. The United States has pledged that it shall

cooperate with the PMB administration in locating and retrieving laundered monies.5 Equally

tone setting is EFCC summoning of Zainab Yar’Adua, daughter of former President Umaru

Yar’Adua; and wife of Senate President, Mrs. Toyin Saraki, for questioning over alleged financial

corruption, lending credence to a popular saying attributed to PMB that “there are no sacred

cows.”6

3It was reported in Daily Trust and Premium Times of July 29, 2015 that the Nigerian Army rescued 30 people from

terrorists in Dikwa. Likewise, the Guardian of July 31 reported that the Nigerian Army rescued 59 Borno villagers

from Sambisa forest. 4Ibanga Isine (2015), Buhari will probe Jonathan’s govt only; Obasanjo’s, Others – Presidency, Premium Times, July

23 [Accessed: July 30 at http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/187120-buhari-will-probe-jonathans-

govt-only-not-obasanjos-others-presidency.html] 5US to Buhari: We will help you recover stolen funds, Daily Trust, July 21, 2015 [Accessed: July 24 at

http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/daily/index.php/news-menu/news/60471-us-to-buhari-we-ll-help-you-recover-

stolen-funds] 6George Agba (2015) No Sacred Cows in Fight Against Corruption, Leadership, July 22 [Accessed: July 25 at

http://leadership.ng/news/448669/no-sacred-cows-in-fight-against-corruption-buhari]

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Infrastructure

Promises categorised under infrastructures include power (electricity) and transportation. On

power, there is a noticeable improvement in power supply. Since inauguration, electricity

generation and supply across the country has continued to improve. Few months to the end of

the Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, Nigeria witnessed a decline in her power output, from

a peak of 4,500MW on 3 April, to 2,800MW on 30 March; and to as low as 1,327MW in May,

20157. On 29 July 2015, the management of Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that

the national grid transmission has recorded an increase from 4,000MW in early July to

4,662MW as at the time of reporting8.

There is no available evidence on steps taken to achieve other tracked promises. They include

undertaking an urgent power audit of Nigeria’s energy needs; restoring the production of

national development plans to promote investment in key national and state infrastructure

projects; ensuring that Nigeria meets all its power needs within the next ten years, amongst

others. We are yet to see any actionable steps on promises with regard to transportation.

Oil and Gas

In a bid to address the perennial problems of fuel scarcity andsubsidy scamin the oil and gas

sector, PMB promised to revive and activate the minimally functioning refineries to optimal

capacity. After the Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) of all the four refineries in Port Harcourt,

Warri and Kaduna, preliminary operations have resumed. Within the reporting period, reports

indicate that refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna are projected to work at 60

percent9, 80 percent

10 and 90 percent

11installed capacity respectively.

The government is yet to take any concrete steps towards the implementation of its campaign

promises to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill; establish an independent Oil and Gas Regulatory

Authority; introduce a strong local content legislation; and create a domestic supply chain,

amongst others.

7Nigeria’s power generation at “all-time low” crashed to 1,327MW, Premium Times, May 22, 2015 [Accessed: 1

August 2015 at http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/183496-nigerias-power-generation-at-all-time-

low-crashes-to-1327mw.html]. 8 John O. (2015), Power Transmission peaks 4,662MW, The Nation, July 30 [Accessed: 30 July at

http://thenationonlineng.net/power-transmission-peaks-at-4662mw/] 9Oladunjoye P. (2015), Port Harcourt, Warri Refineries Commences Preliminary Operations, Daily Independent, July

30 [Accessed: July 30 at http://dailyindependentnig.com/2015/07/port-harcourt-warri-refineries-commence-

preliminary-production/] 10

Ibid 11

Asa Msue (2015) Kaduna refineries to hit 90 percent installed Capacity, National Mirror, August 1[Accessed:

August 1 at http://nationalmirroronline.net/new/kaduna-refinery-to-hit-90-percent-of-installed-capacity-md/]

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V. UNEVEN ACHIEVEMENT

VI. ABOUT BUHARIMETER

Buharimeter (www.buhaimeter.ng) is a monitoring tool that enables Nigerians and pan-

Nigerians around the globe to keep tab on the implementation of the campaign promises of

President Muhammad Buhari. It is an independent, unbiased and non-political monitoring

platform and provides alternative opinion about government policy, where necessary. By

analysing data gathered through tracking of media reports, policy analysis, opinion polling and

rating government performance, we hope to empower Nigerians to take an active role in

making the APC-led government live up to its campaign promises. We want our electoral

democracy to deliver development to all and sundry by promoting democratic accountability.

Our progress rating is not based on mere policy pronouncement by the government, but

actionable steps taken to achieve a promise.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Corruption

Politics&Gov.

Security

Foreign Policy

Industrialisation

Housing

Social Safety Net

Employment

Agriculture

Infrastructure

Oil&Gas

Education

Health

Sport&Culture

ICT

Women&Youth

PWD

Environment

Niger Delta

Water&Sanitation

Not rate

Ongoing

Achieved

Not Achieved