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Changing Business Models

in Scientific, Technical and

Medical Publishing

Marketplace

David R. WorlockChairman

Electronic Publishing Services Ltd.

London and New York

Chairman, Digital Content Forum

OECD, WPIEBroadband Content Panel

ParisJune 2004

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STM publishing: market size

Revenue by Content Segment, 2002

Total = $7.0 Billion

Geophysical Information 5%

Scientific Publishing & Information

42%Medical Publishing & Information 33%

Genetic Databases 3%

Technical Publishing & Information 17%

Medical 36%

Technical 22%

Source: EPS Market Monitor, November 2003

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STM Publishing:Customer segments

Academic50%

Corporate15%

Government10%

HealthcarePractitioners

25%

Academic60%

Corporate35%

Government5%

Figure 22:Scientific & Technical Information

Market by Customer Segment

Total = $4.5B

Figure 23:Medical Information Market

by Customer Segment

Total = $2.5B

Source: EPSSource: EPS

Academic sector is largest for both Scientific & Technical and Medical Information providers

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Competitive structure

Elsevier 25.8%

Dialog (Thomson) 1.6%IEEE 1.7%

Seitel 1.9%IHS Group 2.2%Nature Publ Grp 2.3%Veritas DGC 2.9%

Blackwell Science 3.2%

Taylor & Francis 3.6%

John Wiley 3.6%

New Springer 5.8%

Am. Chemical Soc. 3.6%

Thomson SHC 9.0%

WK Health 9.2%

35 Companies,Societies, andUniversity Presses 18.4%

Rest of Market 3.8%

McGraw-Hill 1.8%

Source: EPS

See Appendix 2 for full listing

Figure 29: Overall Market Shares of STM Information

Providers, 2002

Top 4 Providers:

49.3%

Top 15: 77.8%

Top 50: 96.2%

STM information providers compete strongly in certain areas, and often enjoy dominant positions in lucrative niches.

The combined Bertelsmann Springer and Kluwer Academic Publishers (KAP), create a fourth leading provider of STM information.

Combined, the four leaders represent 49% of the market.

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STM publishing: market breakdown

Revenue by Delivery Format, 2002

$0.3 bn

$0.8 bn

$1.1 bn

$1.3 bn

$3.5 bn

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Aggregation

Meta-publishing

Books

Other databases

Journals

D

e

l

i

v

e

r

y

F

o

r

m

a

t

s

Revenue in $ billionsSource: EPS Market Monitor, November 2003

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STM publishing: market in transition

Electronic61%

Print39%

Print vs. Electronic Delivery, 2002

Scientific & Technical Information

Electronic42%

Print58%

Medical Information

Source: EPS Market Monitor, November 2003

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Open access: key questions

Is author pays economically viable?

Will commercial publishers be forced to follow the OA pioneers?

Is there room for hybrid models? How will commercial STM publishers

be affected? What are they doing to counter the

threat?

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Open Archives v Open Access

Interoperable(like Open Source)

Way of storing and searching

content

Not necessarily freeto end-user

Open Archives (institutional repositories)

Open Access (author pays)

Content is free tothe end-user

Alternative publishingmodels (e.g. author

pays BioMed Central, PLoS)

Organised author self-publishing

and peerreview

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Where is Open Archivesgoing?

Open Archives now:Early adopter institutions/disciplines organise access to their intellectual

assets for internal and external user communities

And in the future?:International searchable access to

federated open archives (by discipline)containing free and paid-for content

and pre- and post- prints

Barriers to progress? Can institutions/academics

manage a vast publishing programme? (Content tagging, editorial, updating, version control, author control)

Will federated search technologies work and really enable cross-searching?

Will publishers release post-prints?

Will user/author behaviourchange?

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The battle for content navigation

ISI Web of Knowledge (Science)

ISI Citation IndexesBiosis

Contracts with IEEE, CABI

(Thomson)

Scirus/ScienceDirect navigation

ScopusAbstracting 14,000 titles

Agreements with ACS

ScienceDirect (Reed Elsevier)

NAVIGATIONAbstracts and Intelligence

PRIMARY

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Key battleground factors

Persistent identity (DOI) and granularity

Google, CrossRef and Cross Search

Can scholarly standards be maintained in a period of rapid change?

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David Worlock, Chairmandrw@epsltd.com020 7837 3345