12
COMPANY UPDATE 22 NOV 2018 Vodafone Idea BUY HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters Uphill task Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) analysts meet exuberated management’s confidence of it moving in the right direction, to stay in shape and benefit from the eventual improvements in the industry fundamentals. We concur. Yet, it shouldn’t turn out to be merely optimistic posturing. There is no room to err. VIL seems to follow the foot-steps of Jio. Dilemma is that as VIL moves closer to Jio, latter moves ahead with its innovative offering (difficult to envisage). To put it mildly, by Mar-20 VIL’s 4G capacity (2.5-3x) would still be lower than Jio’s current data consumption. VIL’s financial position is precarious (net debt Rs 1.1tn is ~11x net debt/EBITDA). Mercifully, existing cash and likely fund infusion can support operations for the next 6-8 quarters. Synergy benefits, 4G market share gains and tariff hikes are essential during this period. We believe these all factors may play out. Our TP is highly sensitive to ARPU assumptions. VIL’s CMP fairly captures the positives of ARPU and revenue growth. Significant market repair and regulatory tailwinds (LF reduction, deferment in spectrum payment etc) are medium term triggers. At our targeted 10x FY21E EV/EBITDA, VIL is worth Rs 48/sh, after a whopping 64% dilution at Rs 45/sh. Key takeaways from analyst meet: (1) VIL would achieve synergies two years ahead of target i.e. by the end of FY21 vs. FY23 earlier. It is inevitable in current scenario and factored by us though fraught with risk. (2) Further, tariff war is unlikely as all players are cash negative. ARPU’s have bottomed-out. Minimum recharge plans to boosts ARPU. Uptick in ARPU is understandable as low paying customers are weeded out. However, the confidence on revenue accretion is soft as customer exodus and down-trading persists in near-term. (3) Simplification of plans, consumer offering, accelerating network integration and 4G roll-out to reduce cost of production. (4) Moving focus from circles to the key districts. Prioritize investments in profitable districts. (5) No additional funding requirement post the Rs 250bn equity raise. VIL is banking heavily on pricing recovery here, we believe. Cash capex of Rs 270bn over FY19-20 and non-cash Rs 62bn from re-use of equipments. (6) VIL would prefer partnership model than being present across the value chain. It is difficult to offer best consumer experience across the value chain especially with fast changing technologies. Co-create value with partners. Consolidated Financial Summary* (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 355.8 282.8 478.7 466.6 487.2 EBITDA 102.0 60.5 47.6 94.4 169.5 APAT (4.0) (41.7) (257.6) (184.4) (109.8) Diluted EPS (Rs) (1.1) (11.6) (71.5) (51.2) (30.5) P/E (x) (37.0) (3.5) (0.6) (0.8) (1.3) EV / EBITDA (x) 8.4 15.0 27.5 14.3 8.1 RoE (%) (1.6) (16.0) (47.2) (25.4) (19.0) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research * FY17 and FY18 is for Idea excluding Vodafone. FY19-21 is for merged entity. INDUSTRY TELECOM CMP (as on 22 Nov 2018) Rs 41 Target Price Rs 48 Nifty 10,527 Sensex 34,981 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg IDEA IN No. of Shares (mn) 8,735 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 359/5,061 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,092 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 119/33 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (22.3) (25.1) (58.3) Relative (%) (13.7) (26.1) (62.5) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 42.6 FIs & Local MFs 11.9 FPIs 26.0 Public & Others 19.5 Source : BSE Himanshu Shah [email protected] +91-22-6171-7315 Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-3021-2070

BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

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Page 1: BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

COMPANY UPDATE 22 NOV 2018

Vodafone Idea BUY

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Uphill task Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) analysts meet exuberated management’s confidence of it moving in the right direction, to stay in shape and benefit from the eventual improvements in the industry fundamentals. We concur. Yet, it shouldn’t turn out to be merely optimistic posturing. There is no room to err.

VIL seems to follow the foot-steps of Jio. Dilemma is that as VIL moves closer to Jio, latter moves ahead with its innovative offering (difficult to envisage). To put it mildly, by Mar-20 VIL’s 4G capacity (2.5-3x) would still be lower than Jio’s current data consumption.

VIL’s financial position is precarious (net debt Rs 1.1tn is ~11x net debt/EBITDA). Mercifully, existing cash and likely fund infusion can support operations for the next 6-8 quarters. Synergy benefits, 4G market share gains and tariff hikes are essential during this period. We believe these all factors may play out. Our TP is highly sensitive to ARPU assumptions.

VIL’s CMP fairly captures the positives of ARPU and revenue growth. Significant market repair and regulatory tailwinds (LF reduction, deferment in spectrum payment etc) are medium term triggers. At our targeted 10x FY21E EV/EBITDA, VIL is worth Rs 48/sh, after a whopping 64% dilution at Rs 45/sh.

Key takeaways from analyst meet: (1) VIL would achieve synergies two years ahead of target i.e. by the end of FY21 vs. FY23 earlier. It is inevitable in current scenario and factored by us though fraught with risk. (2) Further, tariff war is unlikely as all players are cash negative. ARPU’s have bottomed-out. Minimum recharge plans to boosts ARPU. Uptick in ARPU is understandable as low paying customers are weeded out. However, the confidence on revenue accretion is soft as customer exodus and down-trading persists in near-term. (3) Simplification of plans, consumer offering, accelerating network integration and 4G roll-out to reduce cost of production. (4) Moving focus from circles to the key districts. Prioritize investments in profitable districts. (5) No additional funding requirement post the Rs 250bn equity raise. VIL is banking heavily on pricing recovery here, we believe. Cash capex of Rs 270bn over FY19-20 and non-cash Rs 62bn from re-use of equipments. (6) VIL would prefer partnership model than being present across the value chain. It is difficult to offer best consumer experience across the value chain especially with fast changing technologies. Co-create value with partners. Consolidated Financial Summary* (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 355.8 282.8 478.7 466.6 487.2 EBITDA 102.0 60.5 47.6 94.4 169.5 APAT (4.0) (41.7) (257.6) (184.4) (109.8) Diluted EPS (Rs) (1.1) (11.6) (71.5) (51.2) (30.5) P/E (x) (37.0) (3.5) (0.6) (0.8) (1.3) EV / EBITDA (x) 8.4 15.0 27.5 14.3 8.1 RoE (%) (1.6) (16.0) (47.2) (25.4) (19.0) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research * FY17 and FY18 is for Idea excluding Vodafone. FY19-21 is for merged entity.

INDUSTRY TELECOM

CMP (as on 22 Nov 2018) Rs 41

Target Price Rs 48 Nifty 10,527

Sensex 34,981

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg IDEA IN

No. of Shares (mn) 8,735

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 359/5,061

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,092

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 119/33

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (22.3) (25.1) (58.3)

Relative (%) (13.7) (26.1) (62.5)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 42.6

FIs & Local MFs 11.9

FPIs 26.0

Public & Others 19.5 Source : BSE

Himanshu Shah [email protected] +91-22-6171-7315

Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-3021-2070

Page 2: BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 2

Analyst meet takeaways

VIL CEO highlighted that the integration has been smooth with meticulous planning and progressing ahead of plan. Synergy guidance of Rs 140bn has been brought forward by two years to end FY21 vs. FY23 earlier. In our view, this is inevitable in current scenario with existing profitability being battered.

He has handled such situations in the past, albeit at a lower scale. VIL has been in a unique position to choose from best of both the entities w.r.t. employees, distribution partners, networks etc.

CEO highlighted that if data is the new oil, then spectrum is the reservoir which is largest with the merged entity.

Total spectrum holding (MHz)

Source: Company Presentation, HDFC Sec Inst Research

Spectrum holding (MHz) band-wise

Source: Company Presentation, HDFC Sec Inst Research

Yet, VIL’s 4G-data capacity would be 2.5x by FY20 (3x in priority districts), albeit lower than Jio’s current consumption. VIL’s LTE spectrum is in 2,500MHz band where the ecosystem is weak vs. 2,300 MHz for peers.

Strategy of VIL is founded on five pillars: Radically accelerate the integration to reduce the

cost of production Prioritize investments on key and profitable districts;

and costs optimization in weaker Drive ARPU through simplification, rationalization and

up selling Accelerate non-mobile revenue growth through

enterprise services, partnership for digital content Strengthen balance sheet

1,715 1,537 1,485

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

VIL Bharti Jio

Liberalised Total

284 243428

1,166 914 458

400

570

600

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

VIL Bharti Jio

Sub GHz 1800/2100 TDD

VIL foresees itself as well-positioned to compete with leading spectrum portfolio Integration/synergy benefits to be achieved two years in advance i.e. by end FY21 vs. FY23 earlier VIL to focus on five strategic areas

Page 3: BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

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VIL provided break-up of the Opex-synergy benefits of Rs 84bn p.a. as under:

Rs bn Network Site exits: rental, loading and energy costs savings 49 AMC, O&M and other network opex reduction 3 IT opex synergy 3 Sub Total (A) 55 Sales and Marketing (Operations) Customer acquisition 6 Customer servicing 4 Advertising and Promotions 2 Sub Total (B) 12 General Administration and Others (C) 17 Total (A+B+C) 84 Source: Company Presentation, HDFC Sec Inst Research

Of the Rs 49bn savings from site exits, VIL has already given notices on 66k sites leading to annual savings of Rs 18bn. Additional Rs 31bn savings would be from 22k future site exits from overlapping networks resulting in rental savings, equipment removal from significantly larger number of sites leading to savings in loading and energy costs. VIL is factoring a complete removal of equipments from this 88k sites.

We highlight below the broad break-up of Rs 49bn savings: Description Rs Bn Savings on 66k sites already exited 18 Savings on additional 22k sites to be exited 6 Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4

49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

In our opinion, the incremental savings of Rs 31bn could be difficult especially in a timely manner. This is on account of burgeoning data demand and the risk of losing customers from sites rollback.

Moving away from Circles to key districts To effectively utilize the resources, VIL’s management

would focus on strengthening, retaining and up selling the services to consumers in the profitable districts and optimize the weaker. The management provided the current construct of revenue and EBITDA mix across four quadrants.

Revenue and EBITDA mix districts-wise (Q2FY19)

No of Districts Contribution

Revenue % EBITDA % Quadrant A 303 86% 138% Quadrant B 35 4% 3% Quadrant C 54 3% -12% Quadrant D 276 7% -29% Total 668 100% 100% Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research

In our view with challenged resources, it is sensible but likely to impact growth.

Minimum recharge plans: Ray of hope for revenue growth Led by need of hour, both VIL and Bharti have

radically simplified prepaid and postpaid offerings. In Prepaid, VIL has reduced the number of plans to five and is moving customers from unlimited to limited validity for non-bundled users. Company claims that the initial results are positive and revenue accretive.

This is a significant move in our view and should lead to stabilization of revenues in 4QFY19 and contribute to growth from FY20.

Assuming incremental Rs 20 ARPU from 50% of the customers, it could improve VIL’s revenue by Rs 50bn p.a. (210m subs * Rs 20/sub *12months).

Synergy benefits is inevitable for VIL with no room for error with weak financials

Page 4: BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

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Key financial and operating performance for Vodafone Idea (merged entity)

1QFY19 2QFY19 % chg QoQ Financial Summary Revenue Rs Mn 129,441 120,238 -7.1% EBITDA Rs Mn 13,722 11,178 -18.5% EBITDA Margin % % 10.6 9.3 -130 bps Capex Rs Mn 25,213 32,956 31% Operational Summary Subsciber base (EOP) mn 435.4 422.3 -3.0% Net Addition mn (13.1) VLR Subscribers (EOP) mn 411.6 402.8 -2.1% Net VLR Addition mn (5.8) (8.8) Prepaid Susb (% of EOP Subs) % 94.2% 94.3% ARPU Rs 92 88 -4.3% MOU min 555 568 2.3% Churn % 4.10% 4.30% 20 bps Minutes of Use mn 732,837 731,195 -0.2% Data Volume (2G+3G+4G) mn GB 1,889 2,260 19.6% Data Subs (2G+3G+4G) mn 141.7 140.1 -1.1% Data Usage/Data Sub (2G+3G+4G) MB 5,114 5,740 12.2% Broadband Subs (3G+4G) mn 95.3 99.7 4.6% 2G Coverage (% of Pop) % 91.2% 91.3% 10 bps Broadband Coverage (% of Pop) % 64.4% 67.6% 320 bps No of Towers no 201,854 202,650 0.4% Broadband Towers no 151,544 155,511 2.6% Broadband Sites no 340,709 365,575 7.3% Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

With focus on merger, VIL’s data subscriber addition was weak Broadband towers as % of total tower at 77% is lower than that of Bharti at 90%. Population coverage too is lower for the merged entity at 91% vs. 95% for Bharti. We would have preferred separate disclosure of 4G with it becoming the norm

Page 5: BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

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Quarterly Financial Snapshot: Consolidated Rs Mn 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19* % chg YoY % chg QoQ Revenue 81,665 74,655 65,096 61,373 58,892 76,635 2.7% 30.1% Acess costs 10,690 11,198 6,361 7,109 7,744 9,478 -15.4% 22.4% License Fee 8,666 7,689 6,985 5,327 5,961 7,990 3.9% 34.0% Network & IT costs 26,883 25,361 23,661 21,429 26,427 35,976 41.9% 36.1% Employee costs 4,195 4,398 4,242 2,595 3,920 4,939 12.3% 26.0% Sales & Marketing 10,017 8,854 9,052 8,167 6,236 9,105 2.8% 46.0% Other Expenses 2,460 2,139 2,561 2,275 2,010 4,533 111.9% 125.5% Operating Expenses 62,911 59,639 52,862 46,902 52,298 72,021 20.8% 37.7% EBITDA 18,754 15,016 12,234 14,471 6,594 4,614 -69.3% -30.0% D&A 20,679 21,143 21,415 20,854 20,924 30,050 42.1% 43.6% Other Income 152 454 420 2,504 1,414 2,151 373.8% 52.1% Finance Costs 11,691 12,283 11,910 12,246 15,258 21,662 76.4% 42.0% PBT before share in JV (13,464) (17,956) (20,671) (16,125) (28,174) (44,947) 150.3% 59.5% Share of Profit in JV 818 843 818 745 598 423 -49.8% -29.3% PBT after share in JV (12,646) (17,113) (19,853) (15,380) (27,576) (44,524) 160.2% 61.5% Tax (4,497) (6,047) (7,009) (5,758) (9,731) (453) -92.5% -95.3% EO Inc/(loss) and OCI (10) (12) (11) 316 20,480 (5,415) NA NA PAT (8,159) (11,078) (12,855) (9,306) 2,635 (49,486) 346.7% -1978.0% Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research *2QFY19 financials are not comparable to earlier quarters as include one month of Vodafone Margin Analysis (%)

1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 chg bps YoY chg bps QoQ Access costs 13.1 15.0 9.8 11.6 13.1 12.4 (263) (78) License Fee 10.6 10.3 10.7 8.7 10.1 10.4 13 30 Network & IT costs 32.9 34.0 36.3 34.9 44.9 46.9 1,297 207 Employee costs 5.1 5.9 6.5 4.2 6.7 6.4 55 (21) Sales & Marketing 12.3 11.9 13.9 13.3 10.6 11.9 2 129 Other Expenses 3.0 2.9 3.9 3.7 3.4 5.9 305 250 Operating Expenses 77.0 79.9 81.2 76.4 88.8 94.0 1,409 518 EBITDA 23.0 20.1 18.8 23.6 11.2 6.0 (1,409) (518) D&A 25.3 28.3 32.9 34.0 35.5 39.2 1,089 368 Finance Costs 14.3 16.5 18.3 20.0 25.9 28.3 1,181 236 PAT (10.0) (14.8) (19.7) (15.2) 4.5 (64.6) (4,973) (6,905) Tax as % of PBT 35.6 35.3 35.3 37.4 35.3 1.0 (3,432) (3,427) LF as % of NR 12.2 12.1 11.9 9.8 11.7 11.9 (22) 24 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

VIL has given notice on 66k sites which should help bring down the network cost from 3QFY19 ~Rs 2bn per month EO gain in 1Q is from sale of standalone towers and loss in 2Q is for provision of exit penalties

Page 6: BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 6

Key assumptions

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E EOP Subs (Mn) 373.0 398.6 417.2 402.3 414.3 424.3 433.3 Revenue (Rs Bn) 802.8 785.3 632.0 478.7 466.6 487.2 559.1 EBITDA (Rs Bn) 248.9 218.3 136.0 47.6 94.4 169.5 226.8 Margin (%) 31.0 27.8 21.5 10.0 20.2 34.8 40.6 ARPU (Rs) 177.5 160.9 120.4 89.1 88.8 89.9 101.2 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Valuation Summary Financial Year FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E EBITDA (Rs Bn) 47.6 94.4 169.5 226.8 Enterprise Value (Rs Bn) at various EV/EBITDA multiple 9.0 429 850 1,525 2,041 10.0 476 944 1,695 2,268 11.0 524 1,038 1,864 2,495 12.0 572 1,133 2,034 2,722 Net Debt (Rs Bn) 953 993 1,014 967 Equity Value (Rs Bn) at various EV/EBITDA multiple 9.0 (525) (143) 512 1,075 10.0 (477) (49) 681 1,301 11.0 (429) 46 851 1,528 12.0 (382) 140 1,020 1,755 O/s shares including dilution (Bn) 14.3 Value Per Share (Rs) 9.0 (37) (10) 36 75 10.0 (33) (3) 48 91 11.0 (30) 3 60 107 12.0 (27) 10 71 123 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

We have assumed a capex of Rs 140bn p.a. for VIL over FY19-21 We have assumed equity infusion of Rs 250 bn at Rs 45/sh i.e. 5.55bn new share issuance (64% dilution).

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VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

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Peer Set Comparison

Company Mcap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs)

TP (Rs) Rating

P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Bharti Airtel 1,331 328 340 BUY 119.3 NA NA NA 7.6 9.7 9.1 7.5 1.6 (2.6) (4.4) 0.4 Bharti Infratel 480 258 321 BUY 18.8 19.6 19.3 17.7 6.9 7.8 8.1 7.8 15.7 14.7 15.3 16.5 Vodafone Idea 359 41 48 BUY (3.5) (0.6) (0.8) (1.3) 15.0 27.5 14.3 8.1 (16.0) (47.2) (25.4) (19.0) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page 8: BUY - HDFC securities Idea - Update...Energy costs savings on 88k sites (@ Rs 20k/month) 21 Savings in loading charges on 88k sites (@ Rs 3.5k/month) 4 49 Source: HDFC Sec Inst Research

VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

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Consolidated Income Statement* (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 355.8 282.8 478.7 466.6 487.2 Growth (%) (1.0) (20.5) 69.3 (2.5) 4.4 Access Costs 42.8 35.4 62.8 43.3 - Net revenue 313.0 247.4 415.9 423.4 487.2 Growth (%) 0.1 (20.9) 68.1 1.8 15.1 License fee 40.5 28.7 50.8 51.9 59.7 LF as % of NR 12.9 11.6 12.2 12.3 12.3 Network & IT costs 105.5 97.3 217.1 189.0 176.0 Employee costs 18.0 15.4 31.9 28.8 26.8 SG&A 36.0 36.1 49.6 42.8 39.9 Other Operating Expenses 11.0 9.4 18.9 16.5 15.4 Operating Expenditure 170.5 158.3 317.5 277.1 258.0 EBITDA 102.0 60.5 47.6 94.4 169.5 EBITDA (%) 28.7 21.4 10.0 20.2 34.8 EBITDA Growth (%) (14.8) (40.7) (21.2) 98.1 79.6 Depreciation 78.3 84.1 188.7 183.3 179.2 EBIT 23.7 (23.6) (141.0) (88.9) (9.7) Other Income 3.1 3.5 10.2 9.6 10.6 Interest 39.6 48.1 128.5 105.1 110.7 Share in Profit of JV 4.2 3.2 1.7 - - PBT (8.6) (65.0) (257.6) (184.4) (109.8) Tax (4.6) (23.3) - - - APAT (4.0) (41.7) (257.6) (184.4) (109.8) APAT Growth (%) (114.7) 942.8 517.9 (28.4) (40.5) EPS (1.1) (11.6) (71.5) (51.2) (30.5) EPS Growth (%) (114.7) 942.8 517.9 (28.4) (40.5)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research *FY17 and FY18 is Idea consolidated excluding impact of Vodafone merger; FY19-21 is Vodafone plus Idea merged entity

Consolidated Balance Sheet* (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 36.1 43.6 142.9 142.9 142.9 Reserves 211.3 229.0 675.7 491.3 381.4 Total Shareholders’ Funds 247.3 272.6 818.6 634.2 524.3 Long term debt 550.2 595.5 1,192.4 1,055.6 934.5 Short term debt 0.3 10.4 123.1 156.8 190.6 Total Debt 550.5 605.9 1,315.5 1,212.4 1,125.1 Other non-current liabilities 32.7 9.4 163.7 198.9 241.8 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 830.6 887.9 2,297.8 2,045.5 1,891.3 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 843.0 832.8 1,860.3 1,817.0 1,777.8 Other non-current assets 47.7 50.7 243.9 188.9 188.9 Total Non-current Assets 890.7 883.4 2,104.1 2,005.9 1,966.7 Inventories 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 Debtors 13.1 8.9 33.8 33.5 38.5 Cash & Equivalents 49.8 56.6 362.1 219.7 111.4 Other Current Assets 12.8 36.5 74.9 74.9 74.9 Total Current Assets 76.3 102.3 470.8 328.1 224.7 Total Current Liabilities 136.4 97.9 277.2 288.4 300.1 Net Current Assets (60.1) 4.5 193.6 39.6 (75.4) TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 830.6 887.9 2,297.8 2,045.5 1,891.3

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research *FY17 and FY18 is Idea consolidated excluding impact of Vodafone merger

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VODAFONE IDEA : COMPANY UPDATE

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Consolidated Cash Flow Year ending March (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Reported PAT (4.0) (41.7) (257.6) (184.4) (109.8) Net interest expense 39.6 48.1 128.5 105.1 110.7 Depreciation 78.3 84.1 188.7 183.3 179.2 Working Capital Change & others 18.0 (57.8) 116.3 11.6 6.7 OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 132.0 32.7 175.9 115.6 186.8 Capex (177.3) (73.9) (1,216.2) (140.0) (140.0) Free cash flow (FCF) (45.3) (41.2) (1,040.2) (24.4) 46.8 Investments (48.8) (26.8) (39.0) 90.3 42.9 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (226.1) (100.7) (1,255.1) (49.7) (97.1) Debt Issuance 168.4 55.4 709.6 (103.1) (87.3) Interest expenses (39.6) (48.1) (128.5) (105.1) (110.7) FCFE 34.6 (60.7) (498.0) (142.4) (108.3) Share capital Issuance - 67.5 803.5 0.0 0.0 Dividends (6.4) - - - - FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 122.4 74.7 1,384.7 (208.3) (198.0) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 28.3 6.8 305.5 (142.4) (108.3) Closing Cash & Equivalents 49.8 56.6 362.1 219.7 111.4 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) EBITDA Margin 28.7 21.4 10.0 20.2 34.8 EBIT Margin 6.7 (8.4) (29.5) (19.0) (2.0) APAT Margin (1.1) (14.7) (53.8) (39.5) (22.5) RoE (1.6) (16.0) (47.2) (25.4) (19.0) RoIC (or Core RoCE) 1.5 (1.9) (10.2) (4.7) (0.5) RoCE 1.4 (1.8) (8.9) (4.1) (0.5) EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 53.7 35.9 - - - Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 Inventory (days) 1 0 0 0 0 Debtors (days) 13 11 26 26 29 Other Current Assets (days) 13 47 57 59 56 CL & Provisions (days) 140 126 211 226 225 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (113) (67) (128) (141) (140) Net D/E (x) 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 Net D/EBITDA (x) 4.9 9.1 20.0 10.5 6.0 Interest Coverage (x) 0.6 (0.5) (1.1) (0.8) (0.1) PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS (Rs/sh) (1.1) (11.6) (71.5) (51.2) (30.5) CEPS (Rs/sh) 2.1 1.0 (0.5) (0.0) 0.5 DPS (Rs/sh) - - - - - BV (Rs/sh) 68.6 62.5 57.3 44.4 36.7 VALUATION P/E (x) (37.0) (3.5) (0.6) (0.8) (1.3) P/BV (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 15.0 27.5 14.3 8.1 EV/Revenues (x) 2.4 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.8 OCF/EV (%) 15.3 3.6 13.4 8.6 13.6 FCF/EV (%) (5.3) (4.5) (79.3) (1.8) 3.4 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 4.0 (6.7) (37.9) (10.5) (7.9) Dividend Yield (%) - - - - - Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 15-Nov-17 94 BUY 120 10-Jan-18 109 BUY 120 25-Jan-18 94 NEU 96 13-Apr-18 74 BUY 88 30-Apr-18 69 BUY 86 6-Jul-18 55 BUY 70

1-Aug-18 55 BUY 70 9-Oct-18 34 BUY 50

19-Nov-18 43 BUY 48 22-Nov-18 41 BUY 48

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

30405060708090

100110120

Nov-

17

Dec-

17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr-

18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov-

18

IDEA Cellular TP

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Disclosure: We, Himanshu Shah, CA & Mansi Lall, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock –No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. 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HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business. HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report. HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600 HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF C000222657, SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193 Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.

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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171-7330www.hdfcsec.com