By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 12 th, 2015
The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of MAR Board of Directors
Slide 2
Dawn of the Dead
Slide 3
Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries
Projected 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)
RankCountryRegion% RankCountryRegion% 1 Turkmenistan Central Asia
10.1 169 Netherlands Europe 0.6 2 Chad Africa 9.6 170 France Europe
0.4 3 Mongolia Asia 9.1 171 Brazil South America 0.3 4 Democratic
Republic of the Congo Africa 8.6 172 Russia Eastern Europe 0.2 5
Cte d'Ivoire Africa 8.5 173 Solomon Islands Pacific Islands 0.1 6
Myanmar Southeast Asia 8.5 174 San Marino Europe 0.0 7 Mozambique
Africa 8.3 175 Italy Europe -0.2 8 Ethiopia Africa 8.2 176 Finland
Northern Europe -0.2 9 Sierra Leone Africa 8.0 177 Serbia Eastern
Europe -0.5 10 China Asia 7.4 178 Barbados Caribbean -0.6 11 Lao
P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 179 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.8 12 The
Gambia Africa 7.4 180 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.1 13 Tanzania Africa
7.2 181 Argentina South America -1.7 14 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.2
182 Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.5 15 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0
183 Iraq Middle East -2.7 16 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.0 184
Venezuela South America -3.0 17 Nigeria Africa 7.0 185 Cyprus
Europe -3.2 18 Mauritania Africa 6.8 186 Ukraine Eastern Europe
-6.5 19 Burkina Faso Africa 6.7 187 South Sudan Africa -12.3 20
Panama Central America 6.6 188 Libya Middle East -19.8 Source:
International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database
Slide 4
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015
Projected* Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO
Database *The IMFs global and regional growth figures for 2014 are
based on new purchasing power parity (PPP) weights derived from the
recently released 2011 International Comparison Program survey.
**For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year
basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices.
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What Lies Beneath Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller,
Yahoo! Finance *Through June 2014
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Median Weekly Earnings,
Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q3 through 2014Q3 *SA, Constant
1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U) Wage and salary workers ages
16+
Slide 7
Source: Moodys Economy Recession Watch as of September
2014
Slide 8
Industrial Production January 2001 through November 2014
Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures
the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas
utilities industries.
Slide 9
Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q3 Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Slide 10
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q3 2014Q3 Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Slide 11
Invasion of the Body Snatchers
Slide 12
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2014: +252K
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through December
2014
Slide 13
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector December 2013 v.
December 2014 All told 2,952K Jobs gained Source: U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics
Slide 14
Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
November 2013 v. November 2014 Absolute Change MD Total: +12.1K;
+0.5% US Total (SA): +2,681K; +2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics
(LAUS) series MD added 4,281 jobs between November 2013 and
November 2014.
Slide 15
Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector
Groups (NSA) November 2013 v. November 2014 Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total: +14.5K; +1.1% MD Total (SA): +12.1K; +0.5% US
Total (SA): +2,681K; +2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Slide 16
Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by
Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2013 v. November 2014
Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +18.9K; +0.6% US Total (SA): +2,681K;
+2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 2.0% Employment Growth,
U.S. States (SA) November 2013 v. November 2014 Percent Change R
ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE % 1NORTH
DAKOTA4.817MINNESOTA1.934MAINE1.1 2TEXAS3.917TENNESSEE1.936IOWA1.0
3UTAH3.417WISCONSIN1.936MICHIGAN1.0
4DELAWARE3.021MASSACHUSETTS1.838NEW YORK0.9 4FLORIDA3.021NEW
MEXICO1.838WEST VIRGINIA0.9 4OREGON3.023ALABAMA1.740NEW
HAMPSHIRE0.8 7WASHINGTON2.823DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA1.740WYOMING0.8
8ARIZONA2.623IDAHO1.742SOUTH DAKOTA0.7 8NORTH
CAROLINA2.626HAWAII1.643ILLINOIS0.6 8SOUTH
CAROLINA2.627ARKANSAS1.543NEBRASKA0.6
11GEORGIA2.427CONNECTICUT1.543PENNSYLVANIA0.6
12COLORADO2.327MISSOURI1.546KANSAS0.5
12NEVADA2.330MONTANA1.446MARYLAND0.5
14CALIFORNIA2.231VERMONT1.348VIRGINIA0.4
15KENTUCKY2.132OHIO1.249NEW JERSEY0.3 16OKLAHOMA2.032RHODE
ISLAND1.250MISSISSIPPI-0.1 17INDIANA1.934LOUISIANA1.151ALASKA-0.4
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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U.S. Unemployment Rate: 5.8% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States
(SA) November 2014 RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE% 1NORTH
DAKOTA2.717VIRGINIA5.035ILLINOIS6.4
2NEBRASKA3.119PENNSYLVANIA5.135NEW JERSEY6.4 3SOUTH
DAKOTA3.320WISCONSIN5.235NEW MEXICO6.4
4UTAH3.621MARYLAND5.638CONNECTICUT6.5
5MINNESOTA3.721MISSOURI5.638LOUISIANA6.5
6IDAHO3.923INDIANA5.740ALASKA6.6 7HAWAII4.023MAINE5.741MICHIGAN6.7
8COLORADO4.125ARKANSAS5.841SOUTH CAROLINA6.7 8NEW
HAMPSHIRE4.125FLORIDA5.843ARIZONA6.8
10IOWA4.325MASSACHUSETTS5.843TENNESSEE6.8 10KANSAS4.325NORTH
CAROLINA5.845NEVADA6.9 10MONTANA4.329NEW YORK5.946OREGON7.0
10VERMONT4.330ALABAMA6.047RHODE ISLAND7.1
14OKLAHOMA4.430DELAWARE6.048CALIFORNIA7.2
15WYOMING4.530KENTUCKY6.048GEORGIA7.2
16TEXAS4.933WASHINGTON6.250MISSISSIPPI7.3 17OHIO5.034WEST
VIRGINIA6.351DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA7.4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics
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Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) November 2014
RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.011 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan
Statistical Area 5.6 2 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area 4.512 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8 2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD- WV Metropolitan
Statistical Area 4.512 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island,
NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8 4 Dallas-Fort
Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.612 San
Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8 5
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 4.712 Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8 6 San
Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.016
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 7
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.117
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.5 8 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan
Statistical Area 5.218 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan
Statistical Area 7.0 9 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan
Statistical Area 5.519 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2 9 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano
Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.520 Riverside-San
Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.0 Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995
through January 2015* Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending
1/8/2015
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U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through November 2014 Source:
U.S. Census Bureau
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U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through November 2014 Source:
U.S. Census Bureau
Slide 25
U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through November
2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau November 2014: 1 Unit: 639K 5 Units
or more: 367K
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros
October 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard &
Poors
Slide 27
Maryland Housing Unit Sales January 2005 through November 2014
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Nov 2013 v. Nov 2014:
+7.0%
Slide 28
Maryland Median Home Sale Prices January 2005 through November
2014 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Nov 2013 v. Nov 2014:
-2.8%
Slide 29
Housing Inventory by Suburban MD+ November 2013 v. November
2014 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland Nov. 2013:
5.9 months; Nov. 2014: 6.2 months
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Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA+ Jurisdictions November 2013
v. November 2014 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland
Nov. 2013: 5.9 months; Nov. 2014: 6.2 months
Slide 31
Housing Inventory in Select Other Maryland Counties November
2013 v. November 2014 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland Nov. 2013: 5.9 months; Nov. 2014: 6.2 months
Slide 32
Psycho
Slide 33
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007
through November 2014 Source: Conference Board
Slide 34
Tell-Tale Heart Economy gained momentum over the course of last
year; Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline
prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on
interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos; The current year
is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy that
helps; The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1)
Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons; and More
people benefit from lower oil prices than are hurt more contractors
and developers are helped than hurt frankly, low oil prices just
dont make me that nervous.
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