C35 a Feasibility

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  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

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    2008

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    2008

    :

    :35716620-35678216-3571385235678218)202(+

    :35703620)202(+

    :www.capscu.eng.cu.edu.eg:www.Pathways.cu.edu.eg

    :[email protected]

    :8476/2008

    :ISBN 977-403-303-5

    .

    http://www.pathways.cu.edu.eg/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.pathways.cu.edu.eg/
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    "

    ".

    /

    /

    .

    :

    .

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    .

    1

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    1. .2. .

    3. .

    4. .

    5. .

    6. .

    7. .

    8. .

    9. .

    10. .

    11.

    12. .

    13. .

    14.

    15. .

    16.

    17. .

    18. .

    19.

    2

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    .1974.1984

    .

    . ...

    .

    .

    " "

    .

    1020191213

    200210201912-1162005

    10201912-2272006.

    .. .

    2008

    3

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    4

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    " "

    .

    :

    .

    .

    :1. -2. -

    3. -4. -

    5. -6. -

    " "

    .

    2017)

    2002-2005) (2006-2010(

    18

    .

    .

    .

    .

    5

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    .

    ..

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    13

    :5

    1-15

    1-26

    1-37

    1-47

    1-58

    1-69

    1-7101-811

    1-911

    :15

    2-115

    2-216

    2-316

    2-420

    2-522

    :37

    3-1373-2383-346

    :55

    4-155

    4-2564-356

    4-458

    4-563

    4-665

    4-767

    :75

    5-175

    5-2( )78 5-379

    7

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    5-4( )88

    5-592

    5-694

    5-795

    5-899

    :10

    7

    6-1107

    6-2108

    6-3109

    6-4109

    6-5111

    12

    1

    8

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    )5-1:(101

    )5-2:(102

    )3-1:(49

    )6-1:(107

    )6-2(110

    9

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    10

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    35/1:

    :

    1..2..3..4..5..6..

    1

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    35/1:

    2

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    35/1:

    . ( )

    -

    -.

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    3

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    35/1:

    4

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    35/1:

    1-1

    :

    )

    Economically Justifiable. (.

    .

    )

    (

    .

    )

    . (

    .

    . ( )

    .

    1-2

    ( )

    .

    " " " "Pre-feasibility.

    Comprehensive Feasibility Study

    5

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    35/1:

    Market Viability.

    .

    .

    .

    :

    1.( )2.

    3. 4.

    1-3

    :

    1.2.3.4.5.

    6.7..

    1-4

    .

    : : .

    " " .Roadmap.Blueprint

    .

    6

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    35/1:

    .

    1-5

    Pre-Feasibility Study

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    :

    -.

    - .-.--

    .

    -.

    .

    Investment Promoter.

    1-6

    7

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    35/1:

    :

    1-6-1

    .

    .

    .

    .

    1-6-2

    .

    1-6-3

    .

    .

    1-7

    .

    )

    .(:

    1.

    8

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    35/1:

    .

    2.-

    .

    .

    3.

    ( )

    .

    .

    1-8

    :

    -

    - ----.

    1-9

    :

    ------

    -

    9

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    35/1:

    . :

    1-9-1

    )Ein Mann Gesellschaft( ) (

    .

    .

    1-9-2

    .

    .

    1-9-3

    :

    .

    .

    1-9-4

    .

    .

    .

    1-9-5

    10

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    35/1:

    .

    1-9-6

    : .

    ( )

    .

    .

    .

    1-9-7

    .

    .

    11

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    35/1:

    12

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    35/1:

    2-1

    . ( )

    )

    .(

    ( )

    ) )

    .(

    .

    .

    2-2

    .

    ) .

    . (

    .

    . .

    13

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    35/1:

    2-3

    :

    2-3-1

    )Holding Other ThingsConstant(

    .

    .

    .

    .

    2-3-2

    .

    .

    2-3-3

    ( )

    14

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    35/1:

    .

    2-3-4

    ( )

    .

    .

    2-3-5

    ( )

    .

    .

    2-3-6

    )

    (

    Conspicuous Consumption

    .

    .

    .

    Inferior Goods

    .

    2-3-7

    15

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    35/1:

    Price TakerPrice Maker

    .

    2-3-8

    .

    .

    . ( )

    .

    .

    2-3-9

    .

    2-3-10

    .

    .

    .

    2-4

    .

    ( )

    ( )

    .

    .

    16

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    35/1:

    2-4-1

    .

    .

    :

    ---

    -.

    .

    .

    2-4-2

    .

    1-

    :

    -:

    .

    -:.

    -:.

    Emailed Investigation

    .

    2-

    17

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    35/1:

    )(

    . .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    SamplesStatistical Sampling

    .

    .

    .

    2-5

    )

    (

    .

    :

    2-5-1

    .

    :

    1-

    :

    -

    18

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    35/1:

    )24001800(/1800)40003600(/3600=600/1800

    3600/400=3

    2008

    200740002400 20084400

    3=)2400(/2400)44004000(/4000=)2400(/2400

    400/4000=)2400(/240010/1

    = ( )1560

    = =1560150. =

    .

    2-

    :

    / ( ) =

    .

    :

    ) + ( ) + =

    .(

    ) = :1+

    .(

    :

    . =

    )2-2:(2007

    20082009:

    352%

    200750

    30

    10

    :

    ( - )+ =

    =50) +3010= (70)

    (

    = / =70/35=2

    2008=2007)1= ( +35)1,02= (

    35.7

    2008=2007= ( )35.7)2(

    =71.4

    2009=35.7)1.2= (36.4

    20

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

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    35/1:

    2009=2008)2= (36.4)2= (72.83

    .

    3-

    ( )

    :

    )2-3:(

    200730:

    200420052006

    ( )706040 ( )6000800010000

    :

    20052006=)100008000(/8000)40-

    60(/60=2000/800060/20- =0.75

    0.75=)-10000(/10000)30-40(/40

    ( )11875.

    .

    4-

    )

    . (

    .

    .

    .

    :

    1.

    2.

    3.( )

    :

    1.

    + =

    .

    2.

    .

    5-

    21

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    35/106

    35/1:

    .

    ( )

    ( )

    .

    .

    ( )

    )

    .(1+1

    ( ).( )

    .

    ( )

    .

    .

    )2-4:(19861997

    :

    198660110

    198760135

    198860120

    198962120

    199062140

    199162130

    199262135199364150

    199464145

    199570170

    199670185

    199770160

    :

    727476

    .

    22

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    36/106

    35/1:

    :

    .

    :

    =

    ( ) =

    ( ) =( ) =

    :

    22

    1986

    601103600121006600

    1987601353600182258100

    1988601203600144007200

    1989621203844144007440

    1990621403844196008680

    19916213038441690080601992621353844182258370

    1993641504096225009600

    1994641454096210259280

    19957017049002890011900

    19967018549003422512950

    19977016049002560011200

    1276

    6

    170

    0

    4906

    8

    24610

    0

    10938

    0

    = :766=63.8

    12

    = :1700=141.6

    12

    :

    23

    =

    ]2( )2] [2( )2[

    -( ) ( )

    =

    ]2( )2] [2( )2[

    -( ) ( )

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

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    35/1:

    =863.3=0.91

    950.9

    )0.91(+)1-1(

    .19982000.

    :

    :

    . =

    . =

    = ( ) =

    = ( ) =

    . ( ) =

    . =

    . =

    . =

    24

    =

    ]49068)766(2] [246100)1700(2[

    1212

    109380-7661700

    12

    =

    ]4906848896.3] [246100

    240833.3[

    109380-108516.6

    =

    ]171.6] [5266.6[

    863.3

    =+

    ) ( ) (

    ) ( ) (- )(

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

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    35/1:

    . =2. =

    2. =

    . =

    :

    =141.6+0.91 ) 63.8(

    =141.6+0.91]5.3 ) 63.8[(

    =141.6+4.8306.3

    1998

    19992000:727476

    :

    1998=141.8+4.872306.3

    )1998= (141.6+345.6306.3=180.9)1(

    1999=141.8+4.874306.3

    )1999= (141.6+355.2306.3=190.5)2(

    2000=141.6+4.876306.3

    )2000= (141.6+364.8306.3=200.1)3(

    :

    =141.6+4.8306.3

    6( ) -

    .

    :

    =123.

    :

    21

    3132

    25

    =141.6+

    0.9149068) 766) (63.8(

    346100) 1700) (141.6(- )63.8(

    =141.6+

    0.91190

    5380- )63.8(

    28.3

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

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    35/1:

    :21)32(=

    2

    2

    : =4632=34843

    =6796=106

    2=976=5779

    213132:

    21=0.8731=0.7732=0.80

    :

    1)32(:21)32(=

    =0.84( )

    0.84

    .

    7-Regression Analysis

    .

    : .

    1

    .

    2.

    3( )

    .

    )2-5:(1998

    100000:

    151998

    5000.

    250000

    40000.

    3-

    50000:

    199820000.

    199940000.

    26

    221

    +222

    221

    31

    32

    1232

    )587(2) 0.77(2-20.82

    0.80

    1802

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    40/106

    35/1:

    200050000.

    1998

    :

    11998 2( )

    55000

    \=50005=250003

    50000

    4000040000

    4

    199820000 \ =150001998

    ( )

    .

    )Projected Products(:

    1.

    2.

    3..

    4.

    5.

    6.

    : .

    :

    :

    .

    . = =

    :

    :

    + + =

    + +

    . +

    27

    100000

    8500015000

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    41/106

    35/1:

    =

    :

    -

    . -.-.-.-

    .

    )

    ( ) (

    ..

    .

    .

    .

    28

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    42/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    3-1

    .

    .

    .

    :

    -

    .

    -)

    (

    ( )

    .

    .

    -.

    3-2

    29

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    43/106

    35/1:

    :

    1.

    2.

    3. 4.

    5.

    3-2-1

    .

    :

    1-

    .

    :

    -:

    .

    -:

    .

    .

    .

    -: :

    -:

    )(

    .

    -:

    .

    )

    (

    .

    .

    30

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    35/1:

    )

    (

    .

    .

    .

    :

    :

    1-

    . .. .( )

    .

    )

    .(

    ( )

    .

    2-

    . .

    .:

    :

    .

    . /

    .

    .

    ( ) -

    .

    ( )

    ) .

    . (

    :

    .

    . ( / )

    31

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    45/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    .

    ..

    .

    :

    .

    .:

    )

    ( )

    .

    .

    . - -

    .

    :

    .

    .

    3-2-2

    .

    Maximum Capacity

    Normal Capacity)

    (

    32

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

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    35/1:

    .

    .

    ( ).

    .

    .

    Break Even Analysis.

    ( ).

    :

    1-

    .

    .

    2-

    ::

    :

    :

    .

    3-

    .

    .

    ( )

    Diseconomies

    33

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    35/1:

    .

    3-2-3

    Labor Intensive

    Capital IntensiveKnowledge Intensive

    ( )

    ( )

    ..

    :

    . ( )

    .

    .

    -

    Process Chart( )

    .

    .

    -

    :

    ---( )--

    :

    1..

    2..

    34

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    35/1:

    3..4..5.

    .

    6...

    . ( )

    3-2-4

    :

    .

    .

    -:

    --

    -

    .

    -

    .

    ( )

    .

    -:

    .

    -:

    .

    .

    3-3

    35

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    35/1:

    :

    3-3-1Opportunity Cost

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    3-3-2Implicit Costs & Explicit Costs

    .

    .

    3-3-3

    :

    -

    .

    . .

    -

    .

    .

    .

    :

    : -

    .

    .

    36

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    50/106

    35/1:

    : -

    .

    :

    1: Fixed Costs

    . .

    .

    2: Variable Costs.

    .

    .

    3: Total Costs

    . .

    4: Average Costs

    .

    :

    : -Average Total Costs.

    : -Average Fixed Costs

    .

    : -Average Variable Costs

    .

    5: Marginal Costs.

    .

    100021

    105050.

    .

    .

    . .

    )3-1:()1(

    )2(

    )3(

    )4(

    )5(

    )6(

    )7(

    )8(

    37

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    35/1:

    2020020220100122-

    70200402405.721.146.960.8

    140200602602.860.863.700.56

    230200802801.740.702.440.44

    34020010030010.180.581.760.364382001203200.920.541.460.60

    5202001403400.760.541.300.48

    5802001603600.680.581.240.66

    6222001803800.640.601.220.98

    6482002004000.620.661.241.58

    6602002204200.600.721.223.34

    6702002404400.580.761.344.55

    6782002604600.580.821.404.44

    6862002804800.580.861.445.55

    6942003005000.580.861.445.55

    3-3-4

    .

    .

    :

    1

    : .

    .

    .

    .

    . -

    .

    :

    -

    .

    .

    .

    38

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    52/106

    35/1:

    .

    -

    .

    .

    2-

    :

    .

    . .

    .

    . -

    .

    .

    .

    .

    3( ) -

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    :

    .

    39

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    53/106

    35/1:

    ( )

    .

    .

    4-

    ( )

    5%20%

    .

    :

    ( ) .

    .

    .

    )3-1:(:

    90000.

    40000.

    30000.

    5000

    84.

    :

    1. -

    2. -

    :

    1: -

    =

    + +

    =8+4=12=3.

    . =

    ) =40000+30000 (3

    =700003=210000

    =

    +

    =90000+210000=300000

    40

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    54/106

    35/1:

    2:

    =

    ( )

    =30000050000=250000

    3-3-5

    .

    41

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    55/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    .

    4-1

    .

    .

    .

    .

    4-2

    :

    1.

    2.

    3.

    4.

    .

    42

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

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    35/1:

    4-3

    :

    1.

    )

    Common StocksPreferred Stocks(

    .

    .

    .

    .

    2.Retained Earnings

    .

    .

    3.

    .

    .

    4.

    .

    :

    -Long Term Financing

    . .

    .

    43

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    35/1:

    .

    -Short Term Financing .

    Trade CreditBank Credit.

    .

    .

    4-4

    :

    4-4-1

    .

    : :

    .

    :

    =

    :

    ] =

    + [

    :

    )4-1:(100

    15.

    .

    :

    44

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    58/106

    35/1:

    =1

    .=15

    .=0.15=15%

    100

    :

    =1.+

    . =

    )4-2:(100

    13

    5.%:.

    :

    . =

    =1.+=13.+0.05=0.18=18%100

    : :

    .

    :

    :

    =1

    .

    . =

    )4-3:(100

    10%

    12.:.

    :

    =1

    .=12

    =12

    =

    1001090

    0.133=13.3%

    )

    (:

    45

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    59/106

    35/1:

    =

    .

    :

    =

    + .

    .

    .

    - -

    .

    4-4-2

    :

    :

    ) =1. ( -

    :

    =

    =

    =

    :

    ) =1 ( -)+(:

    . =

    .

    .

    4-4-3

    ( )

    .

    46

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    60/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    :

    ) =1.(

    :

    . =

    . =

    . =10

    1002%

    :

    =10100)1-2= (%10)10098%(=10,3.%

    4-4-4

    .

    := ) =1) (1( -= ) +1) (1( +

    :

    . =

    . =

    . =

    . =

    .

    4-5

    :

    47

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    61/106

    35/1:

    1.

    ( )

    )(.

    2.

    .3.

    .

    4.

    .

    5.

    .

    .

    6.

    .

    7.

    .

    8.

    .

    9.

    ( )

    .

    .

    10.

    ( )

    :

    ) ( ) =

    .(

    ( )10%

    15%

    5%

    .

    4-6

    48

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    62/106

    35/1:

    .

    ( )

    :

    .

    )

    (.

    :

    1.)

    (

    2.:

    . =

    3..

    4.. 5.

    .

    .( )

    )4-4:(

    .

    ( )

    (%)

    60017

    20015

    50013

    60012

    10011

    2000---

    49

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    63/106

    35/1:

    :

    14( ) %14%)

    (

    16. %

    (%)

    (%)

    6006002000100=

    0.30%

    170.3017%=

    5.1

    2002002000100=

    0.10%

    150.1015%=

    1.5

    5005002000100=

    0.25%

    130.2513=

    3.25

    6006002000100=

    0.30%

    120.3012=3.6

    1001002000100=

    0.05

    110.0511=

    0.55

    2000100%14%

    4-7

    4-7-1

    .

    :

    1.

    .

    2.

    .

    3..

    - -

    50

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    64/106

    35/1:

    .

    )

    ) (

    : ( .1

    10( )

    .

    .

    .2

    . .3:

    -( )-

    .

    -)

    (

    -

    -

    .

    .

    .

    .

    -

    -:

    1-

    .

    51

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    65/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    . .

    2-

    . :

    -( )

    .

    -. =

    -+ ( ) =- =

    3-

    - -

    .

    4-

    :

    -:

    .

    .

    . =

    )

    (

    .

    -:

    52

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    66/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    5-

    .

    .

    )4-5:(

    80000.

    :

    150000

    200000.

    :

    Sunk Cost

    150000

    =150000.

    200000

    .

    =200000.

    4-7-2

    1-

    : -

    : .

    53

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    67/106

    35/1:

    -.

    -

    .

    . -

    -

    .

    -( )

    .

    . -:

    . .

    .

    :

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    -

    .

    -

    .

    -)

    .(

    -

    Depletion Rate.

    2-

    :

    -:

    .

    -:

    .

    54

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    68/106

    35/1:

    -:

    .

    )4-6:(

    .

    12345

    2000

    0

    3000

    0

    4000

    0

    4500

    0

    5000

    0

    22.5344

    122.52.753

    20002000200020002000

    -570000.

    -60000

    .

    -20.%

    :

    =

    =600005=12000.. =

    ( ) =

    :

    12345

    2000

    0

    3000

    0

    4000

    0

    4500

    0

    50000

    22.5344 4000

    0

    7500

    0

    1200

    00

    1800

    00

    20000

    0

    :

    1400002000120002600020%5200

    2750002000120006100020%1220

    0

    312000020001200010600020%21200

    55

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    69/106

    35/1:

    418000020001200016600020%3320

    0

    520000020001200018600020%3720

    0

    :

    12345

    -4000

    0

    7500

    0

    1200

    00

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    00

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    0

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    0

    7500

    0

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    00

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    00

    20000

    0

    70000-----

    -20002000200020002000

    -52001220

    0

    2120

    0

    3320

    0

    37200

    7000072001420

    0

    2320

    0

    3520

    0

    39200

    )

    70000

    (

    3280

    0

    6080

    0

    9680

    0

    1448

    00

    16080

    0

    . - =

    56

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    70/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    .( ) ( )

    .

    5-1Pay-Back Period

    .

    .

    .

    5-1-1

    1-

    :

    =

    : + =

    ( + ) =

    2-

    .

    )5-1:(70000

    :

    115000

    218000317000

    57

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    71/106

    35/1:

    420000

    516000

    :

    11500015000

    21800033000

    31700050000

    42000070000

    51600086000

    4

    70000.

    5-1-2

    :

    1.

    .

    2.

    .

    3.

    .

    .

    4.

    .

    5-1-3

    :

    1.

    .

    :

    ) + =

    (

    2.( ) .

    )

    (

    58

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    72/106

    35/1:

    - -

    .

    5-2)(Average Rate of Return

    :

    =

    :

    = ( )

    :

    =)+(2

    :

    =2

    .

    :

    1.

    .

    2..

    :

    1.)

    (

    .

    2..

    Timing.

    3.:

    .

    4..

    59

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    73/106

    35/1:

    5-3Net Present Value

    .100

    .

    5-3-1

    10010%

    110)100+)10010(%

    :) =1( +

    :

    . =

    . =

    . =

    . =

    .

    8=100) 1+0.10(8=10010%8=

    1002.14358=214.36

    ( )

    5%

    100

    = =100) 1005= (%95.

    :

    ) =1( +

    :

    . =

    .( ) =

    . =

    .( ) =

    =100) 1+0.5(5=1005%

    =1000.7835=78.35.

    60

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    74/106

    35/1:

    . =

    .

    :

    ..

    :

    =)1(

    ) =1( +

    =1) /1( +1+2) /1( +

    2+ .+) /1( +)2(

    :

    =

    ==

    12=

    ( ) =

    1.

    :

    -.

    -=.

    2.

    .

    )5-2:(

    :

    -10000060%40. %

    -:

    310000

    420000

    540000

    640000

    730000

    820000

    :

    10: %

    1-.2-10%12%

    61

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    75/106

    35/1:

    :

    *

    10.909)00060()54540(

    20.826)00040()33040(

    30.75100010751040.6830002013660

    50.6210004024840

    60.5640004022560

    70.5130003015390

    80.467000209340

    5720

    *10%

    1.5720.

    2: ..

    12: %

    10.893)00060()53580(

    20.797)00040()31880(

    30.712000107120

    40.6360002012720

    50.5670004022680

    60.5070004020280

    70.4520003013560

    80.404000208080

    )1020(

    :

    .

    )5-3:()

    (

    1-0008000085

    2-55

    3--0007

    4-

    1

    2

    3

    45

    1500

    20000

    24000

    3000022000

    12000

    18000

    25000

    3200020000

    62

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    76/106

    35/1:

    -9.%

    . -

    :.

    :1. -

    1)00080()00080(

    10.9170001513755

    20.8420002016840

    30.7720002418528

    40.7080003021240

    50.6500002214300

    4663

    2. -

    1)00085()00085(

    10.9170001211004

    20.8420001815156

    30.7720002519300

    40.7080003222656

    50.6500002717550

    666

    :

    .

    )5-4:(:( )

    00010--

    100040--

    200050--3-0001500035

    4-0002000055

    5-0003076467

    6-0001000050

    :

    80%

    10%

    15. %

    63

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    77/106

    35/1:

    :

    1-.

    0008080%10%0.080002020%15%0.03

    0.11

    = =0.11

    2-11.%

    1)00010()00010(

    10.901)00040()36040(20.812)00050()40600(

    30.7310002014620

    40.6590003523065

    50.6934646727555

    60.5350004021400

    :

    .

    )5-5:(:

    0005000050

    35

    13%13%

    1

    2

    00025

    00028

    00018

    00020

    64

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    78/106

    35/1:

    3

    4

    5

    00025

    -

    -

    00017

    00015

    0004

    :

    ::

    =4444.

    =4738

    3

    5

    .

    :

    )5-6:(( ) ( )

    :

    ( )( )

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    )00011(

    0003

    0003

    0003

    0003

    0003

    )7300(

    2023

    2023

    2023

    2023

    2023

    10: %

    ( )=373

    ( )=369

    ( )

    ( ) ( )

    )113737669=3704(

    .

    )110007300=3700(

    .

    5-3-2

    65

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    79/106

    35/1:

    :

    1..2..

    3.( ) 4..

    5-3-3

    :

    1.( )

    ( ) ( ) ( )

    .

    2..

    3.

    .

    4..

    5-4( )Profitability Index

    ( ) .

    ).(

    5-4-1

    :

    =

    =

    .

    :

    1..

    2..

    66

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    80/106

    35/1:

    3.

    .

    .

    )5-7:(: 1: -

    1

    2

    3

    4

    00020

    -

    -

    0005

    -

    -

    0007

    00010

    0009

    0005

    210.%

    3. . :

    :

    12000020000--

    10.909--70006363

    20.826--100008260

    30.7515000375590006759

    40.683--500034152375524797

    =

    =24797=1.04/

    23755

    :

    1.04.

    )5-8:(: ( ) ( )

    ( )( )

    00060

    400020

    00075

    300030

    67

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    81/106

    35/1:

    :

    9.%

    :

    :( )=20000

    49.% 200003.240=64800

    =64800

    =1.08/

    60000

    :( )=30000

    39.%

    300002.531=75930

    =75930

    =1.01/

    75000 :( ) ( )

    ( )1.08

    ( )1.01( )

    .( ) ( )

    5-4-2

    .

    5-4-3

    : - -

    1.

    .

    2..3.

    .

    4..

    )5-9:(( ) ( )

    :

    ( )( )

    1200010000

    80006500

    :

    .

    :

    68

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    82/106

    35/1:

    ( )( )

    1200010000

    80006500

    40003500

    1.51.54) ( )

    4000) ( ) (

    1.54.(

    ( ) ( )

    1500)8000

    6500(2000)

    )1200010000(

    .

    5-5Internal Rate of Return

    ( ) ( )

    .

    :

    -.-

    .

    .

    5-5-1

    ""Trial and Error

    :

    ) + =

    . (

    .

    .

    69

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    83/106

    35/1:

    )5-10:(

    :( )

    ( )( )

    165001500 25002000

    35002000

    42004200

    :

    1: .

    165001500)5000(

    250020001500

    350020001500

    420042004000

    2.

    :

    18%17%16%15%

    1)5000()4235()4237()4310()4350(

    215001077106911151134

    31500914937962987

    440002164213522082288

    )180()105()25(+59

    16%15: %

    =15) +159) (25+59= (15) +5984= (15+

    0.7=15.7%

    .

    5-5-2:

    1.. ( )

    2.

    .

    3.

    .

    70

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    84/106

    35/1:

    5-6

    --

    .

    .

    Uncertainty.

    ..

    :

    1.

    2.

    3.

    4.

    5.

    6.

    .

    5-7Sensitivity Analysis

    .

    .

    .

    .

    71

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    85/106

    35/1:

    ( )

    .

    5-7-1

    .

    .

    :

    )5-11:( :

    85005

    300010.%

    :

    1.:

    )2315(

    :

    = =

    =

    =

    =

    =30003.605

    =10815

    )8500) (10815(

    27.2%

    .

    2.:

    21.4) %23000) (2358(

    = )3.6058500(

    .

    3.:

    )611(

    72

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    86/106

    35/1:

    20%

    .

    4: .

    22%

    :

    850010815+27.2

    30002358-21.4

    54-21

    12%22%+83

    ( )

    .

    .

    5-7-2

    :

    1.

    2

    .

    3

    Optimistic ValuesPessimistic Values.

    5-7-3

    1

    .

    73

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    87/106

    35/1:

    2Auto Correlation

    . 3

    .

    4

    .

    5-8Break Even Analysis

    5-8-1

    ( )

    .

    .

    ( ) :

    .

    .

    5-8-2

    .

    :

    : . :

    . =

    1-:

    ...

    .

    2-:

    . ...

    5-8-3

    1..

    2.

    74

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    88/106

    35/1:

    3..

    5-8-4

    : 1-

    :

    -

    :

    ( )

    : ( )

    . ( ) -

    ( ) -

    .( )

    ( ) ( )

    .( )

    )5-1.(

    )5-1:(

    ) -1. (

    -1

    .

    75

    1

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    89/106

    35/1:

    -)1(

    )1. (

    -

    = ( )( )= )(

    ==

    ( )

    )(

    .

    )(=

    )5-2. (

    )5-2:(

    :

    -)1. (

    -)1(( )1

    ( )

    .

    76

    1

    .

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    90/106

    35/1:

    )

    (

    .

    2-

    :

    = -

    ( )

    = -

    =

    :

    =+

    ( )

    =

    =( )

    .

    . .

    :

    -

    -.

    -.

    -.

    .

    )5-12:(:

    =100000= .10

    =15.. :

    1=

    77

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    91/106

    35/1:

    =100000=20000

    15-10

    2=

    ==2000015=300000

    )5-13(:120000

    60000480001.

    :

    5000.

    :

    =

    =120000=120000

    1

    =

    =48000=96000

    10.5

    =

    =960001=96000.

    5000:

    =+

    =48000+50000=106000

    10.5

    5000

    =1060001=106000

    )5-14(:53

    600. .

    10000

    :

    1= 600=300

    5-3

    210000

    =600+10000=5300

    53

    78

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    92/106

    35/1:

    79

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    93/106

    35/1:

    .

    .

    6-1

    )6-1.(

    )6-1:(

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    6-2

    :1. -

    80

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    94/106

    35/1:

    2-

    .

    3-

    .

    4( ) -.

    5-

    :

    -

    .

    .

    -.

    -

    .

    -

    -

    .

    -..

    6-3

    .

    .

    )

    (

    .

    ..

    .

    .

    81

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    95/106

    35/1:

    .

    6-4

    ( )

    .

    .

    :

    :

    .

    : .

    )6-2(

    .

    )6-2:(

    ( )

    : -

    -

    -

    -

    -

    .

    . -

    . -

    -

    .

    -

    /

    . /

    -

    .

    -

    )

    .( /

    . -

    -

    .

    -

    .

    .

    82

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    96/106

    35/1:

    ( ) "

    "

    Environment Market( ) .

    .

    6-5

    .

    :

    1.

    .

    2.

    .

    . - -

    3.

    .

    4..

    5..

    .

    83

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    97/106

    35/1:

    6..

    .

    .

    7.

    .

    .

    8.

    .

    9.

    Internet.10.

    ." "

    11.

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    12.

    .

    13.:-

    .

    84

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    98/106

    35/1:

    -

    .

    -

    .

    14.:

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    15.

    .

    .

    10%

    .

    3

    ( )

    .

    : .

    .

    16.

    10%13

    19%

    .

    17.) :Balance Sheet(

    " .Profit and loss statement"

    85

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    99/106

    35/1:

    "Income Statement:"

    Net Income""/ .

    ."Cash Flow Projections:"

    ) .

    (

    .

    .

    18.: :

    .

    :

    .

    19.

    :

    -

    .

    -

    .

    -

    .

    .

    -

    .

    .

    20.

    .

    86

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    100/106

    35/1:

    21.

    . .

    -)Zero-base(

    5%

    5. %

    -.

    -

    .

    -

    .

    -:

    .

    -:

    .

    22.( )

    .

    .

    23.

    .

    .

    .

    .

    24.

    .

    .

    ( )

    87

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    101/106

    35/1:

    :

    .

    25. :

    ) .

    :

    .(

    26.

    .

    .

    27.:

    .

    28..

    . .

    29.

    .

    .

    30.

    .

    .

    31.

    .

    .

    88

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    102/106

    35/1:

    .

    32.)(

    Trial and Error

    .

    ) .

    (

    .

    89

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    103/106

    35/1:

    90

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    104/106

    35/1:

    :

    1.1982.

    2.

    2002.

    3.

    1993.

    4.1990.

    5.

    2007.6.:

    1991.

    7.

    1982.

    8.

    .

    9.

    1988.

    10.1996.

    11.1987.

    12.1993.

    13.1991.

    14.

    1994.

    91

  • 7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility

    105/106

    35/1:

    :

    1. Ashraf El-Sharkawy, Economic Feasibility Studies, Faculty of EngineeringCairo University, 2007.

    2. Bierman, H.J. Shmidt, Seymour, The Capital Budgeting Decision , 5th

    ed.Macmillan Publishing Co. 1975.3. Jem Schell, Small Business Answer Book, Solution to the 101 Most Common

    small Business problems, NY: John Willy & Sons, Inc. 1996.4. Little, I.M.D. & Mirrlees, J.A. Project Appraisal and Planning for Developing

    Countries, Heinemann educational book Ltd. , London 1974.5. Moore, P.C., Risk in Business decision, Longman group Ltd. London 1972.6. Squire, l. & Van Dertak, Herman, Economic Analysis of projects, john

    Hopkins, Baltimore, 1975.

    7. UNIDO, Guidelines for Project Evaluation, UN, N.Y., 1972.8. UNIDO, Guide to Practical Project Appraisal, Social Benefit Cost Analysis inDeveloping Countries, United Nations, New York 1978.

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    1-. :

    2-.3-"

    ."4-.5-.6-.7-.8-.9-.

    10-. 11-.12-. :13-.14-.15-.16-.17-.

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    -.-.

    1- Planning and Controlling.2- Systems and Creative Thinking.3- Research Methods and Writing

    Research Proposals.4- Statistical Data Analysis.5- Teams and Work Groups.6- Risk Assessment and Risk

    Management.7- Communication Skills.

    8- Negotiation Skills.9- Analytical Thinking.10- Problem Solving and Decision

    Making.11- Stress Management.12- Accounting for Management and

    Decision Making.13- Basics of Managerial Economics.14 Economic Feasibility Studies