California Transportation pFuel Demand Forecasts

Transportation Committee Workshop Transportation Energy Forecasts and Analyses for the

2011 I d E P li R2011 Integrated Energy Policy ReportSacramento, California

September 9 2011September 9, 2011

Malachi Weng-GutierrezBob McBride

Fuels and Transportation DivisionCalifornia Energy Commissionf gy

DATE Sept 09 2011

RECD. Sept 09 2011

DOCKET11-IEP-1L

New Elements of Fuel DemandNew Elements of Fuel Demand Models

2009• CALCARS PVC• Transit

2011• Personal light-duty vehicle choice• Urban travel and fuel• Transit

• Intercity

• CALCARS CVC

• Intercity travel and fuel• Traffic congestion• Commercial light-duty vehicle choice• CALCARS CVC

• Freight• Aviation

g y• Freight and heavy vehicle activity• Aviation passenger travel, goods

movement

• Offroad (external) • Simple growth models: Offroad (external), Other bus

2

Transportation Fuel Demand Scenario Methodology

T hTwo step approach:

1) Preliminary fuel demand forecast using scenarios and inputs run in the DynaSim frameworkthe DynaSim framework

2) Final fuel demand forecast using post-processing policy analyses

a Post processing of preliminary demand forecast assuminga. Post-processing of preliminary demand forecast assuming California’s proportional share under Federal Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) are consumed

b. Post-processing of RFS-adjusted demand forecast evaluating California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)

3

How Future Uncertainties Are Capturedp

• Economic projections: gross product and income

• Current & pending regulatory standards

F l d hi l t h l• Fuel and vehicle technology

• Crude oil and transportation fuel price forecasts

4

Some Future Uncertainties Are Not CapturedNot Captured

• Change in consumer preferences over timeg p

• Future regulatory environment

• Changes in land-use

• Events that shape energy markets in short-term

• Fuel price effects of RFS2 or LCFS

5

Lo Petrole m F el DemandLow Petroleum Fuel Demand Forecast

• High crude oil & E85 price trend• Low economic growth and income

o IHS Global Insighto Moody’s Analytics

Hi h t ti f f l ffi i t t h l i• High penetration of fuel efficient technologieso Higher heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy

Near-term CAFE standardso Near-term CAFE standardso More fuel-efficient technology in commercial aircraft

• Low electricity & natural gas price trendy g p

6

High Petrole m F el DemandHigh Petroleum Fuel Demand Forecast

• Low crude oil & E85 price trend• High economic growth and incomeg g

o IHS Global Insighto Moody’s Analytics

• Low penetration of fuel efficient technologieso Lower heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy standardso Near-term CAFE standardso Less fuel-efficient technology in commercial aircraft

• High natural gas & electricity price trend• High natural gas & electricity price trend

7

Gross State ProductGross State Product (2010 dollars)

$4 000

$4,500

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

dolla

rs (2

010$

)

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$ ,500

Billi

ons

of d

$0

$500

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030`

Low GSP Case High GSP Case

8

Light-duty Gasoline Vehicle g yFuel Economy

32

28

30

allon

24

26

iles pe

r Ga

20

22

24

M

20

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Gasoline Low petroleum demand Gasoline High petroleum demandGasoline ‐‐ Low petroleum demand Gasoline ‐‐ High petroleum demand

9

EIA Average Truck Fuel Economyg y

6.9

6.6

6.7

6.8

n

6.3

6.4

6.5

es p

er G

allo

n

6

6.1

6.2

6.3

Mile

6

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Reference Case HDV FE Case

10

EIA Commercial Air PassengerEIA Commercial Air Passenger Carrier Fuel Economy Projections

64

61

62

63

64

Gal

lon

58

59

60

61

at M

iles

per G

56

57

58

9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

Sea

2009

2010

201

201 2

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

202

202 2

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Average Fuel Economy (Low Technology)Average Fuel Economy (High Technology)

11

High Petroleum DemandLight-duty Vehicle Forecast

32.08.0

20.0

24.0

28.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

ne V

ehic

les

ehic

les

8.0

12.0

16.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

ons

of G

asol

in

Mill

ions

of V

e

0.0

4.0

0.0

1.0

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

016

017

018

019

020

021

022

023

024

025

026

027

028

029

030

Mill

io

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Diesel ElectricEthanol HybridNatural Gas Plug-in HybridGasoline (Secondary Axis)

12

Low Petroleum Demandi h d hi lLight-duty Vehicle Forecast

32.08.0

20.0

24.0

28.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

ne V

ehic

les

ehic

les

8.0

12.0

16.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

ons

of G

asol

in

Mill

ions

of V

e

0.0

4.0

0.0

1.0

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

016

017

018

019

020

021

022

023

024

025

026

027

028

029

030

Mill

io

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Diesel ElectricEthanol HybridNatural Gas Plug-in HybridGasoline (Secondary Axis)

13

California Gasoline Demand F tForecasts

18

12

14

16

e G

allo

ns

6

8

10

ns o

f Gas

olin

e

0

2

4

Bill

ion

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

High Gasoline Demand Final High Gasoline Demand Low Gasoline DemandFinal Low Gasoline Demand Actual Gasoline Demand

14

Transportation Diesel Demand pForecasts

5.5

5.0

4.0

4.5

3.5

3.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

High Diesel Demand Final High Diesel Demand Low Diesel DemandFinal Low Diesel Demand Actual Diesel Demand

15

California E85 Demand Forecasts

3,500

2 000

2,500

3,000

5 G

allo

ns

1,000

1,500

2,000

Mill

ions

of E

85

0

500

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

M

High E85 DemandFinal High Petroleum, Low E85 DemandLow E85 DemandFinal Low Petroleum, High E85 Demand

16

Actual E85 Demand

California Transportation Natural G D dGas Demand

250

300

150

200

250

s of

GG

E

100

150

Mill

ions

0

50

010

011

012

013

014

015

016

017

018

019

020

021

022

023

024

025

026

027

028

029

030

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Low Petroleum Demand Scenario High Petroleum Demand Scenariog

17

California Jet Fuel DemandCalifornia Jet Fuel Demand

5 0

6.0

4.0

5.0

Gal

lons

2.0

3.0

Billi

ons

of

0.0

1.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 0 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

200

200

200

200

200

200

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

203

Low Forecast Jet Fuel Demand High Forecast Jet Fuel DemandActual Jet Fuel DemandActual Jet Fuel Demand

18

California Transportation Electricity Demand Forecasts

1,200

800

1,000

400

600

GW

hs

0

200

400

0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

L P t l D d S i Hi h P t l D d S iLow Petroleum Demand Scenario High Petroleum Demand Scenario

19

Questions or Comments?

M l hi W G ti (916) 654 4588Malachi Weng-Gutierrez (916) 654-4588 mwenggut@energy.state.ca.us

Bob McBride (916) 654-5009bmcbride@energy.state.ca.us

20

Electric Drive Vehicle Population E ti tEstimates

3.5 Low Petroleum Demand (BEV & PHEVs)

Hi h P t l D d (BEV & PHEV )

2.5

3.0

Vehi

cles

High Petroleum Demand (BEV & PHEVs)

ARB/Energy Commission Survey (BEV & PHEVs)

Morgan Stanley (PHEVs)

Southern California Edison (BEVs)

Plug in America (BEVs)

2.0

2.5

g-in

Ele

ctric

V California Electric Transportation Coalition (BEV & PHEVs)

California Fair Share of National Goal (BEV & PHEVs)1

1.0

1.5

llion

s of

Plu

g

0.0

0.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mi

21

P t i D dPost-processing Demand Adjustments

• RFS2

• LCFS

22

RFS2 Adjusted Gasoline DemandRFS2-Adjusted Gasoline Demand

16

10

12

14

16

allo

ns

4

6

8

10

Bill

ions

of G

a

0

2

4

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

B

200

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

203

Unadjusted Gasoline Forecast RFS2 Adjusted Gasoline Forecast

Unadjusted E85 Forecast RFS2 Adjusted E85 Forecast

23

RFS2-Adjusted Gasoline Demandj

1618

101214

f Gal

lons

468

Billi

ons

of

02

009

010

011

012

013

014

015

016

017

018

019

020

021

022

023

024

025

026

027

028

029

030

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Unadjusted Gasoline ForecastRFS2 Adjusted Gasoline ForecastUnadjusted E85 ForecastUnadjusted E85 Forecast

24

RFS2-Adjusted Ethanol Demandj

3,500

4,000

2,500

3,000

,

allo

ns

1,500

2,000

Mill

ions

of G

a

500

1,000

M

0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Historic Low Petroleum Demand Scenario High Petroleum Demand ScenarioHistoric Low Petroleum Demand Scenario High Petroleum Demand Scenario

25

RFS2-Adjusted E85 Dispenser Forecast

45 00050,000

30,00035,00040,00045,000

spen

sers

10,00015,00020,00025,000

er o

f E85

Di

05,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Num

be

Base Case E85 - Low Demand - 70K/YearE85 - Low Demand - 150K/Year E85 - Low Demand - 450K/YearE85 - High Demand - 70K/Year E85 - High Demand - 150K/YearE85 - High Demand - 450K/Year

26

Flexible Fuel Vehicles Required to Meet qRFS2-Adjusted Ethanol Forecast

6 0s)

4.0

5.0

6.0

cles

(milli

on

2.0

3.0

4.0

x Fu

el V

ehic

0.0

1.0

2.0

mbe

r of F

lex

0.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030Num

Minimum Number of FFVs - E85 Fueling 50% of TimeMinimum Number of FFVs - E85 Fueling 75% of TimeMinimum Number of FFVs E85 Fueling 75% of TimeForecast Number of FFVs

27

Preliminary Forecast Scenarios

Intent: describe reasonable bounds for demandMeans: combine factors to drive demand one wayMeans: combine factors to drive demand one way

High and low casesg• Economic conditions• Pending regulations• Fuel technology cases for light and heavy vehicles

Si lSingle case• Population • Existing regulations• Existing regulations

28

Policy Case InputsPolicy Case Inputs

29

RFS2-Adjusted Gasoline Demandj

3,000

3,500

2,000

2,500

of G

allo

ns

500

1,000

1,500

Milli

ons

0

500

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

E85 - Low Gasoline Demand Case - RFS2 E85 - High Gasoline Demand Case - RFS2E85 Base Case

30