1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Analog Communication

PhonePhoneEconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-

portationTrans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

PhoneInfra

PhoneInfra

BCASTInfra

BCASTInfra

Internet: as of Yesterday

PhonePhone EconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-

portationTrans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

Phone Infra

InternetBCAST

InfraBCAST

Infra

Internet: as of Today

PhonePhoneEconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-

portationTrans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

Phone Infra

InternetBCAST

InfraBCAST

InfraInternet Infra

(fiber, cable &wireless)

Internet: as of Tomorrow

PhonePhoneEconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-

PortationTrans-

PortationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

������

Internet

Internet Infrastructure(fiber, cable, and wireless)Internet Infrastructure

(fiber, cable, and wireless)

Phone Infra

BCA

ST Infra

Internet Infrastructurefor digital communication society

PhonePhone EconoFinancEconoFinanc

EducEducTrans-

portationTrans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureTV

RadioTV

Radio

InternetInternet

(Integrated) Internet Infrastructure(Integrated) Internet Infrastructure

A testbed is VERY important!

IPv4: Not enough IP addresses and growing requirements

CableCable

IPv4IPv4

Tans-portationTans-

portationAgri-

cultureAgri-

cultureEcono

FinanceEcono

FinanceEducEducPhonePhone

TVRadioTV

Radio

OpticalFiber

OpticalFiber

WirelessWireless SatelliteSatellite

IPv6: The Internet Infrastructure

CableCableOpticalFiber

OpticalFiber

WirelessWireless SatelliteSatellite

IPv6

Trans-portationTrans-

portationEcono

FinanceEcono

Finance

TVRadioTV

RadioPhonePhone EducEduc Agri-

cultureAgri-

culture

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ow

ners

hip

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ow

ners

hip

100100

8080

6060

4040

2020

00

ElectricitElectricityy

(1873)(1873)TelephonTelephon

ee(1876)(1876)

AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)

TelevisioTelevisionn

(1926)(1926)RadioRadio(1905)(1905)

VCRVCR(1952)(1952)

MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)

PCPC(1975)(1975)

InternetInternet(1975)(1975)

1001008080606040402020 120120

Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction

1 G 2 G 3 G 10 * 4 10 * 8 10 * 10 Professionals Innovators Everyone Email, Ftp WWW Wireless, Streaming Media 9.6 k 56 k 1 + MGovernment Internet Public Internet Global Internet

1 G 2 G 3 G 10 * 4 10 * 8 10 * 10 Professionals Innovators Everyone Email, Ftp WWW Wireless, Streaming Media 9.6 k 56 k 1 + MGovernment Internet Public Internet Global Internet

1 G 2 G 3 G 10 * 4 10 * 9 10 * 38 Professionals Innovators Everyone Email, Ftp WWW Wireless, Streaming Media 9.6 k 56 k 1 + MGovernment Internet Public Internet Global InternetDIALDIAL--UP INTERNETUP INTERNET ALWAYSALWAYS--ONON

• NCP Conception

• NCP Roll-Out

1961 19691961 19691969 19821969 19821972 19821972 1982

1983 Now!1983 Now!

1991 1995-Now1991 1995-Now

IP Conception

IPv4 Roll-Out

IPv6 ConceptionIPv6 Roll-Out2000 2000

ARPANET DEMONSTRATIONJohannesburg, South Africa, 1974

PersonPerson

PersonPerson

ApplianceAppliance

ApplianceAppliance

VoiceEmail

VoiceMail

Telemetry

IPsensors

Alarm

NotificationsEmerging

Growing

Growing

MaturingVoice Control

Fax Computer TeIephony Integration

Home Banking

InfoCom Application AreasInfoCom Application Areas

Telecom IndustryTelecom Industry

main frames

desk top computing

PC-LANPC-WAN

InternetInternetInternetInternet

electronicpublishing and entertainment

Computer IndustryComputer Industry

Media IndustryMedia Industry

The ConvergedIndustry

The ConvergedIndustry

Wireline

mobilitymobile/mobile

PSTNPTN

ISDN

PC/Servers

NewTelecomsIndustry

NewTelecomsIndustry

3G/mobile Internet

Carrier class

MMM

WWWWWWWWWWWW

WAP

Next

battle ground

IP sensor Prototype (Thermo Sensor Node)

Inside view

Outside view

Network Appliances(on sale)

Cellular Phonewith Internet Connectivity

Digital Camerawith Network Connectivity

Digital Video CameraWith A/V Network Connection

Microwavewith Network Connectivity

© Cannon

© NTT DoCoMo

© Sony

© Sharp

Refrigerator Node

Control Panel

Voice Output(Speaker)

LCD Panel

Voice Input(Mic)

Internet Connected Car

3 professors @ San Diego Super Computer Center

Students @ 3 universities in Japan

Joint Graduate Level Course on “Network Security”among 3 Universities, Dec 12, 2000 from San Diego U.S.A

NAIST

U-Tokyo

KEIO SFC

Vision: World at your fingertips

ADSL, Cable TV,... Service

Gateway

What is the Key Enabler for Mass Deployment

of Mobile IP-Services ??

Cheap Chea

Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap Cheap

It must be

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (1 Billion Users Forecast)

Strategic IPv6 IcebreakersStrategic IPv6 Icebreakers

100% IPv6 readiness by 2005

• Prime Mister of Japan YoshiroMori

• Korean MIC followed Japan Feb 23rdm 2001

Internet Scaling challengesGreat IP Address CrunchQoS

SecurityAuthentication and

usage tracking

Accurate system information

Maintain IS technical advantage

NCP Pv4 NAT IPv6NCP Pv4 NAT NAT IPv6IPv61970 1980 2000

IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!1990

- ?

• Approximately 70 units are left = 27 %– Here one unit means 1/256 of the total IPv4 address

space size, i.e. /8 (=equivalent size of Class A)• Address Usage Rate (units per a year)

4.442.081.161.22000??2001

2.671.290.580.819990.771998

TotalARIN(America)

APNIC

(AsiaPacific)RIPE/NCC

(Europe)

0

1020

30

40

50

6070

80

90

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Internet IP Address Need forecasts

1

10

100

1,000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05year

N. H

osts

(mill

ions

)

host counts 1996-1999 1993-1999

200 Millions

Source: Internet Software Consortium(http://www.isc.org)

ARINARINARINARIN

19%19%19%19%

APNICAPNICAPNICAPNIC

38%38%38%38%

RIPE RIPE RIPE RIPE

NCCNCCNCCNCC

43%43%43%43%

ARINARINARINARIN

74%74%74%74%

APNICAPNICAPNICAPNIC

9%9%9%9%

RIPE NCCRIPE NCCRIPE NCCRIPE NCC

17%17%17%17%

Million Year 2005 Year 2010Mobile Phones 1500 3000Mobile IP Phones 500 10001% Roaming 5 10400 Wireless Networks 2000 4000

GRACEFULL TRANSITIONS

Phase 1

LegacyIPv4

Internet

IPv6 OceanIPv4

Islands,legacy v4

apps

A largeIPv4 net,

a largeIPv6 net

Large IPv4

Ocean,SmallIPv6

islands

IPv4 IPv6DSTM

NAT-PTBIS

SOCKS"4to6 ?"

NAT-PTBIS

SOCKS

TB6to4

6over4NAT-PT

BISSOCKS

53 42

LegacyIPv6

IPv6 - a small step for IP but a giant leap for Telcos

IPv6 : An e-Buisness Enabler

Critical Success Factor Today with IPv4 IPv6

Cost Effectiveness Costly workarounds >1 billion addresses / person

Flexibility Frequent renumbering Simplified network planningas site grows and management

Reliability Operational complexity Return to simple andscalable architecture

Availability Single points of failure 24x7 operation

Scalability Client/server Peer-to-peer

Accessibility Obstacles to deploying Pervasive enablernext generation Simplified applicationapplications (e.g., VoIP ) development

Security Interferes with some Enabler for end-to-endapplications security

Early conclusion

+ Wireless

ΣΣΣΣΣΣΣΣ Internet 2001 is a baby!Internet 2001 is a baby!

Internet Growth

100 IP Adds/person!

+ Always-On+ Info Soft

Appliances

FinallyFinally

The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be

and the more complex the transition will be !

(compared to

IPv4

IPv4

The New Internet

1969 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

IP E

volu

tion

1 billion +Connected Devices

100m

NCPNCP

1983

IPv4

IPv6Total

Time

Volu

me

The BIG Questions!• Why √√√√• When ? • Where ?• What is the cost ?

IPv6 FORUMIPv6 FORUM

Vint CERFHonorary Chairman