CAMPAIGNS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR Chapters 9 and 10 APUSGovPol
Slide 2
How Running for Office Can Be more Demanding than
Governing
Slide 3
Long and Arduous Campaigns Evolved from the belief of reformers
that the cure for the problems of democracy is more democracy Do
politicians do too little governing because they are always running
scared in todays perpetual campaign?
Slide 4
Issues: 1.Does todays nomination and campaign process provide
too much opportunity for interaction between the public and
candidates for office? 2.Does the entire process take too much time
and/or cost too much money?
Slide 5
Two Types of Campaigns: 1.Campaigns for party nominations:
nomination campaigns 2.Campaigns between the two nominees: election
campaigns
Slide 6
The Nomination Game A nomination is a partys official
endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party. Success
generally requires: Momentum Money Media Attention
Slide 7
The Nomination Game Campaign strategy is the master game plan
the candidates lay out to guide their electoral campaign (in other
words, how they manipulate the 3Ms [momentum, money, media] to
achieve nomination)
Slide 8
The Nomination Game Running for POTUS (President of the United
States) is a multi-year, around-the-clock endurance test In most
advanced industrialized countries, campaigns last no more than 2
months, according to custom or law
Slide 9
Competing for Delegates Goal of nomination game is to win
support of majority of delegates at national party convention
Slide 10
Competing for Delegates Through 1968, delegates were the
political elite chosen by party bosses Riots at 1968 Democratic
National Convention in Chicago led to establishment of more open
procedures for delegate selection
Slide 11
1968 Democratic National Convention
Slide 12
Competing for Delegates McGovern-Fraser Commission formed at
the 1968 Democratic convention in response to demands for reform by
minority groups and others who sought better representation at
national party conventions Commissions work resulted in delegate
selection procedures becoming open: either state-run primary or
open meetings at local level Transformed U.S. politics
Slide 13
Competing for Delegates Superdelegates national party leaders
who automatically get a delegate slot at the national party
convention are the only remaining vestige of the elite-dominated
system In 2012, superdelegates constituted 14% of Democratic and 8%
of Republican convention participants
Slide 14
The Invisible Primary The invisible primary is the period
before any votes are cast when candidates compete to win early
support from the elite of the party and to create a positive first
impression of their leadership skills.
Slide 15
The Invisible Primary During the invisible primary, candidates
woo Elected officials (most importantly, members of Congress and
governors) Top fundraisers Skilled political aides
Slide 16
The Invisible Primary Party elite may set the agenda during the
nominating process by coalescing around and giving endorsement to
candidate most acceptable to it Candidates work hard during this
period to create positive personal image among media, political
elite, and the attentive portion of the public
Slide 17
The Invisible Primary Candidates within same party generally
agree more often than not on issues, so personal qualifications,
character, and intelligence used to differentiate candidates
Slide 18
The Caucuses and Primaries A caucus is a system for selecting
convention delegates used in about a dozen states in which voters
must attend an open meeting to express their presidential
preference.
Slide 19
The Caucuses and Primaries Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have
been the first test of candidates vote-garnering abilities.
Attending a caucus requires a greater time commitment than
attending a primary; results in lower participation levels
Slide 20
The Caucuses and Primaries Caucuses test candidates strategic
acuity, organizational strength, and intensity of support,
qualities not irrelevant to performance in the general election and
in the White House. Thomas E. Mann, Is This Any Way to Pick a
President?, in Reforming the Presidential Nomination Process, ed.
Steven S. Smith and Melanie J. Springer (Washington, DC: Brookings,
2009), 165.
Slide 21
The Caucuses and Primaries Iowa caucuses usually become a
full-blown media extravaganza, and well-known candidates have seen
their campaigns suffer major setbacks after poor showings in
Iowa.
Slide 22
The Caucuses and Primaries Candidates spend far more time in
Iowa during the nomination season than in larger states, such as
California, Texas, and Florida.
Slide 23
The Caucuses and Primaries Most delegates are selected in
presidential primaries: elections in which a states voters go to
the polls to express their preference for a partys nominee for
president.
Slide 24
The Caucuses and Primaries New Hampshire holds the nations
first primary. Half of the countrys portable satellite dishes found
in Manchester, NH during primary week Network news broadcast from
Manchester, NH during that week Over 1/5 of TV coverage of
nomination races devoted to NH primary in recent years
Slide 25
The Caucuses and Primaries
Slide 26
With so much attention paid to NH and IA, more states have
moved their primaries up in the calendar to capitalize on media
attention: frontloading
Slide 27
The Caucuses and Primaries Potential problems with
frontloading: May be a rush to judgment before the public can
adequately learn about the candidates Late primary states may prove
to be irrelevant (candidates may have already been decided)
Slide 28
The Caucuses and Primaries Allocation of delegates: Democrats:
all states require proportional representation for delegate
representation Republicans: three methods Winner-take-all (e.g.,
Florida) Delegates allocated based upon congressional districts
(e.g., California) Proportional representation
Slide 29
The Caucuses and Primaries
Slide 30
Momentum in the caucus and primary season: Beat people
candidates were not expected to beat Collect margins about
predictions Never lose to people candidates were expected to
trounce
Slide 31
Evaluation the Primary and Caucus System Disproportionate
attention goes to the early caucuses and primaries Prominent
politicians find it difficult to take time out from their duties to
run Money plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries
Slide 32
Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System Participation in
primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative About 5% turnout
for caucuses (20% in Iowa) Voters tend to be older, more affluent
The system gives too much power to the media
Slide 33
Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System
Slide 34
The Convention Send-Off No drama anymore; carefully scripted;
weeklong infomercial
Slide 35
The Convention Send-Off Party platform: A political partys
statement of its goals and policies for the next four years. The
platform is drafted prior to the party convention by a committee
whose members are chosen in rough proportion to each candidates
strength. It is the best formal statement of a partys belief.
Slide 36
The High-Tech Media Campaign Television is the most prevalent
means used by candidates to reach voters Obama: I like every
politician at the federal level am almost entirely dependent on the
media to reach my constituents. It is the filter through which my
votes are interpreted, my statements analyzed, my beliefs examined.
For the broad public at least, I am who the media says I am.
Slide 37
The High-Tech Media Campaign
Slide 38
Direct mail: a method of raising money for a political cause or
candidate, in which information and requests for money are sent to
people whose names appear on lists of those who have supported
similar views or candidates in the past
Slide 39
The High-Tech Media Campaign Media coverage is determined by
two factors: How candidates use their advertising budget The free
attention the candidates get as news makers At least the total
budget for a presidential or Senate campaign set aside for TV
ads
Slide 40
The High-Tech Media Campaign Many observers worry that weve
entered a new era of politics in which the slick slogan and the
image salesperson dominate. Studies have found that viewers learned
a substantial amount about candidates issue stands from watching
their ads.
Slide 41
The High-Tech Media Campaign Critics of political ads:
emphasize style over substance, image over information; heighten
conflict and employ a hard-sell approach Constant interplay between
hard news and human interest angle
Slide 42
The High-Tech Media Campaign News coverage is
disproportionately devoted to campaign strategies, speculation
about what will happen next, poll results, and other aspects of the
campaign game.
Slide 43
The High-Tech Media Campaign If you have two guys on stage and
one guy says, I have a solution to the Middle East problem, and the
other guy falls in the orchestra pit, who do you think is going to
be on the evening news? Roger Ailes, Fox News president
Slide 44
The High-Tech Media Campaign The Living Room Candidate
Slide 45
Organizing the Campaign Get a campaign manager Get a
fund-raiser Get a campaign counsel Hire media and campaign
consultants Assemble a campaign staff Plan the logistics Get a
research staff and policy advisers Hire a pollster Get a good press
secretary Establish a website
Slide 46
Money and Campaigning Two ways to contribute money to
campaigns: 1. Campaign contributions are donations made directly to
a candidate or a party and that must be reported to the Federal
Election Commission (FEC). Individuals may currently donate up to
$2,600 per election to a candidate. (This amount will be indexed
for inflation in February or March, 2015.)
Slide 47
Money and Campaigning Two ways to contribute money to
campaigns:2. 2. Individuals and corporations may make donations to
groups that make independent expenditures, expenses on behalf of a
political message that are made by groups that are uncoordinated
with any candidates campaign.
Slide 48
Regulations on Campaign Contributions In early 1970s, the costs
of campaigning skyrocketed, and the Watergate scandal exposed
large, illegal campaign contributions. Reformers thereafter called
for changes to the financing of campaigns.
Slide 49
Regulations on Campaign Contributions 1974: Congress passed the
Federal Election Campaign Act Created Federal Election Commission
(FEC) Required all candidates for federal office to disclose Who
has contributed to the candidates campaign How the funds were
spent
Slide 50
Regulations on Campaign Contributions Federal Election Campaign
Act limited donations to political action committees (PACs), groups
that raise money from individuals and then distribute it in the
form of contributions to candidates that the group supports. PACs
must register with the FEC and report their donations and
contributions to it. Individual contributions to PACs are limited
to $5,000 per year, and a PAC may contribute up to $5,000 to a
candidate for each election.
Slide 51
Regulations on Campaign Contributions FEC reserves 3 spots for
Democratic appointees and 3 spots for Republican appointees. Four
votes are necessary for action. (gridlock?)
Slide 52
Regulations on Campaign Contributions Candidates and parties
detailed contribution and expenditure reports available at fec.gov.
(See also opensecrets.org,
fundrace.org)fec.govopensecrets.orgfundrace.org
Slide 53
Regulations on Campaign Contributions $3 voluntary check-off
box on federal income tax returns only utilized by 7% of taxpayers
Candidates must agree to accept restrictions on overall spending in
order to claim those funds. (In 2012, both major party candidates
have opted out of accepting the federal funds.)
Slide 54
Regulations on Campaign Contributions Buckley v. Valeo (1974):
SCOTUS said candidates may contribute as much money as they wish to
their own campaigns Ross Perot spent over $60 million in 1992 Mitt
Romney spent $44 million in 2008
Slide 55
Regulations on Campaign Contributions 1979: Federal Election
Campaign Act amended to make it easier for political parties to
raise soft money, political contributions earmarked for
party-building expenses at the grassroots level or for generic
party advertising (registration drives, distributing campaign
material, generic advertising) Nearly a half billion dollars in
soft money raised in 2000 (e.g., $7 million donation from creator
of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles to the Democratic National
Party)
Slide 56
Regulations on Campaign Contributions McCain-Feingold Act
(2002) passed to ban soft money contributions. Limits on
contributions to political parties of $25,000 (indexed to rise with
inflation) SCOTUS upheld ban, 5-4, in McConnell v. Federal Election
Commission (2003)
Slide 57
Regulations on Campaign Contributions 2002 McCain-Feingold Act:
banned soft money contributions. Loopholes around these limitations
were quickly discovered and utilized
Slide 58
Regulations on Campaign Contributions Hydraulic theory of money
and politics: As with water, money inevitably finds its way around
any obstacle. Independent political expenditures
Slide 59
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups:
Independent political groups that are not subject to contribution
restrictions because they do not directly seek the election of
particular candidates. Section 527 of the Internal Revenue [tax]
Code requires that such expenditures be reported to the Internal
Revenue Service (IRS).
Slide 60
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups:
In 2004 ruling, FEC said as long as a 527 group does not make
explicit endorsement of candidates by using phrases such as Vote
for and Vote against, individuals may make unlimited contributions
to such 527 group. Donations remained unlimited but had to be
disclosed to FEC.
Slide 61
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups:
Prior to 2010, McCain-Feingold Act prohibited corporations and
unions form using general treasury funds to pay for electioneering
communications in the last 60 days of federal campaigns.
Slide 62
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Citizens
United v. Federal Election Commission (2010): SCOTUS ruled, 5-4,
that corporations and unions may spend unlimited amounts to promote
their political views, as long as they do so without coordinating
their message with any candidates campaign.
Slide 63
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Post-Citizens
United: 501(c) groups: Can receive unlimited political donations
that could remain anonymous Donations dont have to be reported
unless a donor gives money specifically for a political ad Exempted
from reporting their contributions to the FEC Cannot spent more
than half their funds on political activities, pursuant to Internal
Revenue Code. Groups regulated by IRS, not by FEC; therefore, no
public disclosure requirement
Slide 64
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Post-Citizens
United: SpeechNow.org v. FEC (DC Ct. App. 2010): unlimited
donations to PACs that make only independent expenditures (i.e.,
dont coordinate message with candidates) are constitutional
Independent, expenditure-only PACs proliferate known as
SuperPACs
Slide 65
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Post-Citizens
United: SuperPACs are independent, expenditure-only PACs that may
accept donations of any size and can endorse candidates (but cant
coordinate message with candidates). Their contributions and
expenditures must be periodically reported to the FEC.
Slide 66
Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures
Slide 67
Stephen Colberts SuperPAC
Slide 68
Are Campaigns Too Expensive? 2008: Presidential and
Congressional contest cost over $5 billion About 0.05% of GDP
Opportunity costs: more time campaigning means less time governing,
working Congress not likely to support public financing of federal
campaigns: incumbency advantage
Slide 69
Does Money Buy Victory? Doctrine of sufficiency: enough money
must be spent to get a message across to compete effectively, but
outspending ones opponent is not always necessary
Slide 70
Does Money Buy Victory?
Slide 71
The Impact of Campaigns Campaigns have three effects on voters:
Reinforcing voters preferences for candidates Activating voters,
getting them to contribute money or to ring doorbells, as opposed
to merely voting Converting voters, changing voters minds
Slide 72
The Impact of Campaigns Campaigns mostly reinforce and
activate; only rarely do they convert.
Slide 73
The Impact of Campaigns Factors tending to weaken campaigns
impact upon voters: Selective perception: the phenomenon that
peoples beliefs often guide what they pay the most attention to and
how they interpret events Long term factors, such as party
identification Incumbency advantage: name-recognition, track
record
Slide 74
The Impact of Campaigns Sometimes wedge issues issues on which
the other partys coalition is divided may cause voters to stray
from their preferred candidate.
Slide 75
Whether to Vote: A Citizens First Choice Suffrage: the legal
right to vote in the United States; gradually extended to virtually
all citizens 18 and over. Excludes noncitizens in all states Almost
all states exclude prisoners; about half exclude paroled criminals;
10 states exclude felons
Slide 76
Whether to Vote: A Citizens First Choice As right to vote has
been expanded over time, electoral participation has declined. 80%
in 1896 (Bryan [D] vs. McKinley [R]) 59% in 2012 (Romney [R] vs.
Obama [D]) 36% in 2014 midterm Congressional elections
Slide 77
Deciding Whether to Vote Costs of voting: Time: Becoming
informed Making up your mind Getting to the polls
Slide 78
Deciding Whether to Vote Most frequent reason asserted for
nonvoting by registered voters is inability to take time off of
work or school (What about Election Day on Saturday or as a
national holiday?)
Slide 79
Deciding Whether to Vote Rational people vote if they believe
that the policies of one party will bring more benefits than the
policies of the other party. --Economist Anthony Downs
Slide 80
Deciding Whether to Vote Many people vote due to a high sense
of political efficacy, the belief that ones political participation
really matters that ones vote can actually make a difference.
Measured by asking people to agree/disagree with statements such
as, I dont think public officials care much what people like me
think.
Slide 81
Deciding Whether to Vote Some vote based upon their sense of
civic duty, the belief that in order to support democratic
government, a citizen should vote.
Slide 82
Registering to Vote Around 1900, states adopted voter
registration laws. Some states, including Indiana, require citizens
to register as much as 30 days in advance, whereas others permit
Election Day registration.
Slide 83
Registering to Vote Motor Voter Act in 1993 requires states to
permit people to register to vote when they apply for drivers
licenses. Has not greatly affected voter turnout for elections
Slide 84
Registering to Vote Indiana pioneered voter ID laws, which
SCOTUS held constitutional in 2008. Opponents of voter ID laws
claim that such laws impose an undue burden on groups such as
students, minorities, the poor.
Slide 85
Comparative Voting Rates
Slide 86
Who Votes? The Educated The Over-65 Crowd Whites Married People
Government Employees
Slide 87
Who Votes? Differences in turnout rates among high- likelihood
voting demographics are cumulative. Politicians listen far more
carefully to groups with high turnout rates.
Slide 88
Who Votes?
Slide 89
Youth Turnout
Slide 90
How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens Decisions Common
explanation: citizens vote for candidate whose policy views they
prefer Mandate theory of elections: the idea that the winning
candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her
platforms and politics. (Politicians like this theory better than
do political scientists.)
Slide 91
How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens Decisions Political
scientists focus on three major elements of voters decisions:
1.Voters party identification 2.Voters evaluation of the candidates
3.The match between voters policy positions and those of the
candidates and parties policy voting P
Slide 92
Party Identification Party identifications provide a regular
perspective through which voters can view the political world. Once
established, party identification is usually adhered to for a long
period of time, as with other elements of social identity. Provides
simplicity
Slide 93
Party Identification Since 1960s and 1970s, voters more likely
to be floating to elect candidates based upon their perceived
qualifications, rather than based upon their party affiliations.
Young people particularly likely to be floating voters
Slide 94
Candidates appearances: studies have shown that it is possible
to manipulate a candidates appearance in a way that affects voters
choices Three most important dimension of candidates images:
integrity, reliability (dependability, decisiveness), competence
(intelligence) How Americans Evaluate the Candidates
Slide 95
When I first started writing about politics for [The New York]
Times, I got criticized sometimes for focusing on the persona and
not simply the policy. But as a student of Shakespeare, I always
saw the person and the policy as inextricably braided. You had to
know something about the person to whom you were going to entrust
life and death decisions. Maureen Dowd, Pulitzer Prize-winning
columnist How Americans Evaluate the Candidates
Slide 96
Policy Voting Policy voting is the electoral choices that are
made on the basis of the voters policy preferences and where the
candidates stand on policy issues.
Slide 97
Policy Voting True policy voting requires that four conditions
be met: 1.Voters must have a clear sense of their own policy
positions. 2.Voters must know where the candidates stand on policy
issues.
Slide 98
Policy Voting True policy voting requires that four conditions
be met: 3.Voters must see differences between the candidates on the
issues. 4.Voters must actually cast a vote for the candidate whose
policy positions coincide with their own.
Slide 99
Policy Voting Historical obstacles to policy voting: Candidates
cloud their positions on controversial issues in rhetoric. The
media tend to focus on the horse race, not the candidates policy
stands.
Slide 100
Policy Voting Todays candidates have more incentive to clearly
delineate their policy issues in order to appeal to their partys
ideologically motivated activists in the primaries.
Slide 101
The Electoral College Electoral College: A unique American
institution created by the Constitution, providing for the
selection of the president by electors chosen by the state parties.
Although the Electoral College vote usually reflects a popular
majority, less populated states are overrepresented, and the
winner-take-all rule concentrates campaigns on close states.
Slide 102
The Electoral College Each state has as many electoral votes as
it has U.S. senators and representatives. The state parties select
slates of electors based upon patronage. Except for in Maine and
Nebraska, electors are awarded on a winner-take-all basis.
Slide 103
The Electoral College In Maine and Nebraska, an elector is
allocated for every congressional district won. Whoever wins the
state as a whole receives the two electors allotted to the state
for its senators.
Slide 104
The Electoral College Electors meet in their states in
December, following the November election, and mail their votes to
the vice president (who is also president of the Senate). The votes
are counted when Congress convenes in January.
Slide 105
The Electoral College If no candidate receives an Electoral
College majority, the House of Representatives chooses from the top
three electoral vote winners. During this process, each state gets
only one vote.
Slide 106
The Electoral College Importance of the Electoral College: It
introduces a bias into the campaign and electoral process. Less
populated states are overrepresented, due to each states receiving
two electors for its senators regardless of population.
Slide 107
The Electoral College Importance of the Electoral College: The
winner-take-all, norm means candidates will necessarily focus on
winning a relatively small number of battleground states, key
states that the presidential campaigns focus on because they are
most likely to decide the outcome of the Electoral College
vote.
Slide 108
Obamas campaign manager:
Slide 109
The Electoral College What if the Electoral College Is
Tied?
Slide 110
Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior Functions which
elections serve in U.S.: Socializing and institutionalizing
political activity, making it possible for most political
participation to be channeled through the electoral process, rather
than through demonstrations, riots, or revolutions.
Slide 111
Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior Functions which
elections serve in U.S.: Providing regular access to political
power, enabling leaders to be replaced without their needing to be
overthrown and therefore giving elections legitimacy in the peoples
eyes
Slide 112
Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic? The permanent
campaign Would people pay more attention if politics did not ask so
much of them? Is politics so overwhelming that people stay on the
sidelines?
Slide 113
Do Elections Affect Public Policy? The greater the policy
differences between the candidates, the more likely voters will be
able to steer government policies by their choices. The art of
ambiguity: presidential candidates are skilled at appearing to say
much while actually saying little.
Slide 114
Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government? To
secure votes from each region of the country, candidates end up
supporting a variety of local interests. Promises usually add up to
new government programs and money.
Slide 115
Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government? The
way that modern campaigns are conducted is thus one of many reasons
why politicians often find it easier to expand the scope of
American government than to limit it.
Slide 116
Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government?
Citizens in a democracy often seek to benefit from, rather than be
protected from, the state. Thus, as democracy has spread,
government has come to do more and more, and its scope has
grown.