Campaigns, Voting and Elections

Chapter 14

The Campaign Process At the Starting Block

Personal Ambition leads Candidates to Run for Office

Campaign Strategy aids them in Running

The Five Phases of a Political Campaign

Nomination CampaignNomination CampaignTo Win Party NominationTo Win Party Nomination

all in same partyall in same party

General Election CampaignGeneral Election CampaignBetween different political partiesBetween different political parties

The Five Phases of a Political Campaign

Personal Personal CampaignCampaign

give speechesgive speecheshold press conferenceshold press conferences

meet votersmeet voterswalk precinctswalk precincts

Organizational CampaignOrganizational Campaign

PollstersPollsters Campaign ManagersCampaign Managers

Fund-RaisersFund-Raisers High technologyHigh technology

OFTEN Behind the ScenesOFTEN Behind the Scenes

The MEDIA Campaign

PAID Media (TV/Radio)PAID Media (TV/Radio)

Free Media Free Media (Events that get media(Events that get media coverage as “news”)coverage as “news”)

Candidate DebatesCandidate Debates

Campaign Advertising

Positive AdsPositive Ads

Negative AdsNegative Ads

Contrast AdsContrast Ads

Spot AdsSpot Ads

Inoculation AdsInoculation Ads

Success of Candidates Based On:

Abilities Qualifications Likability - Warmth Communication

Skills Issues Weaknesses

SOURCES OF 1996 Senate Race CAMPAIGN Money ($2 million)

Individuals (60% 1.2 Million)

PACS ( 22% $400,000)

Parties (15% $300,000)

Candidate Money (3% $60,000)

PACS

Parties

Individuals

Candidate

CAMPAIGN EXPENSES -- Where Does All that Money GO????

TV/Radio Ads

Staff

Polling

Fund Raising

PrintBrochures

Get-Vote

Office/Etc

CALIFORNIA Senate Race 2000Diane Feinstein (D) v

Tom Campbell(R)

Candidate Received Spent Feinstein 7,933,612 5,095,082

Campbell 3,453,067 2,338,493 Horn 522,536 523,035 (primary)

New York Senate Race 2000H. Clinton (D) v Rick Lazio (R)

Candidate Recvd Spent $PACS Individuals H. Clinton 21,986,261 14,878,662 623,025 17,822,497

R. Lazio 17,881,835 9,499,049 1,533,015 6,031,764

U.S. Presidential Election 2000G.W. Bush (R), Al Gore (D)

Candidate Recvd Spent # PACS Individual

G. W. Bush 177,124,836 121,482,508 881 97,154,857 A. Gore 126,581,737 60,824,001 159 41,352,501 R. Nader 3,571,575 3,253,565 $390. 2,741,480 P. Buchanan 15,736,546 16,211,976 $2000. 7,114,905

The Purposes Served by Elections

Legitimacy Accountability Retrospective Judgment Prospective Judgment

Kinds of Primary Elections

Open Closed

Blanket Run-off

Kinds of Elections

General Elections

Initiative

Referendum

Recall

Methods to Elect National Convention Delegates

Winner-Take-All Proportional

Representation Proportional

Representation with Bonus Delegates

Methods to Elect National Convention Delegates

Beauty Contest with Separate Delegate Selection

Delegate Selection with No Beauty Contest

The Caucus (Virginia uses)

Criticisms of Primaries

Lack of quality information Front-loading Not a good test of skills to

be president Very low voter turnout

The Party Conventions-Loss of Control by State/Local Leaders

Delegate Selection

National Candidatesand Issues

Media Coverage

The DelegatesDemocratic Republican

Younger More diversity single/unmarried labor union

Older White male Married Public service

Organizational CampaignOrganizational Campaign

PollstersPollsters Campaign ManagersCampaign Managers

Fund-RaisersFund-Raisers High technologyHigh technology

OFTEN Behind the ScenesOFTEN Behind the Scenes

The Electoral College

representatives (electors)from each state, equal innumber to the House andSenate members from the

state, who actually electthe President and

Vice-President

Electoral College-Framers’ Intent

Part of original US Constitution To protect “citizens” from too much direct

democracy Work without political parties Cover nominating and electing stages Produce a nonpartisan president Share the “election” process between

state and national levels of government

Who Chooses “Electors”

Political Parties nominate electors at their conventions, (538 total)

Include state elected officials, party loyalists, party leaders, friends of presidential candidate

Chosen by VOTERS (although the electors’ names not on ballots)

ELECTORAL College Process Designed by James Madison January 2005 Joint session U.S. Congress

counts Electoral Votes

ONLY Half of the states (and DC) require electors to vote according to the popular vote totals

Each states gets number of ELECTORS equal to their Congressional Representation

The ELECTORAL College2000 U.S. Presidential Race

(Oct 30, 2000 ABCNews.com)

How The popular vote “Loser” became U.S. President

President NOT elected by national popular vote

Elected by state-vote of electors

48 of 50 states (and DC) award electoral votes on winner-takes-all”

Has happened THREE TIMES (1876,1888, 2000)

What if Nobody gets 270 Electoral VOTES?

IF a tie at 269

GOES INTO THE U.S. House of Representatives

EACH state gets one vote

Congressional Elections

Incumbency Advantage 80-90 percent re-election

WHY? Name recognition easier fund-raising franking privilege

Importance of 2000 Congressional/State Legislature

elections REAPPORTIONMENT --– Redrawing legislative districts (by

state legislatures) for state and congressional races

based on population (from 2000 Census)

political advantage(s)racial? considerations

2004 Congressional Elections

1/3 of U.S. Senate

Entire US House

11 U.S. Governors

Variables that Impact Voter Turnout

Income Age

RaceInterest in

Politics

Difficult Registration

Hard AbsenteeVoting

Number ofElections

Poor voterattitudes

Weak politicalparties

Low voterturnout

Improving Voter Turnout Easier

Registration and Absentee Voting

Make Election Day a Holiday

Strengthen Parties Mail-In Ballots?

Changing the Electoral Process

Mandatory VotingEliminate Electoral CollegeRegional PrimariesCampaign Finance ReformRegulate “SOFT Money” and

PACS