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Can Mexicos incoming governmentmake the needed reforms?By
Enrique Krauze, Published: June 29
MEXICO CITY
On Sunday, about 45 million Mexicans (roughly 60 percent of
eligible voters in apopulation of 110 million) are expected to
choose their next president. Most pollspredict that the winner will
be Enrique Pea Nieto, the young candidate of an oldparty, the PRI,
that is often associated with the image of a dinosaur. Unless
thereis a major upset which would probably be in favor of Andrs
Manuel LpezObrador, the left candidate many Mexicans will ponder
two questions: Will wesee the restoration of the old regime, which
Mario Vargas Llosa once called theperfect dictatorship? And will
the next government basically alter PresidentFelipe Calderns
strategies to fight the drug trade and organized crime? Theanswer
to both seems to be a qualified no.
Vargas Llosa was right about the past. The Institutional
Revolutionary Party, orPRI, functioned for decades like a
well-oiled machine, only occasionally feelingthe need for physical
or ideological coercion. Every six years, the outgoingpresident,
who wielded absolute power, selected his successor. The systemgave
the country stability, order and growth, all at the cost of
politicaldevelopment. It engendered theft and generalized
corruption and a cancer thatgrew invisibly within the social body:
governmental complicity with the growingdrug trade. Mexico was a
monarchy in democratic disguise.
But the perfect dictatorship died in the 2000 presidential
election, with thePRIs loss of power after more than 70 years.
Mexico changed. The presidentnow exercises only his prescribed
constitutional powers. We have a multi-partycongress and an
independent Supreme Court. A transparency law has
reducedfree-wheeling corruption at the federal level. There is
absolute freedom ofexpression. The government no longer organizes
and controls elections; they are regulated by a federalinstitute of
citizens. The Bank of Mexico is autonomous.
In short, a return to the days of the perfect dictatorship is
impossible.
But this doesnt mean that the PRI has become a modern party. Its
dinosaurs have taken shelter in stategovernments and in gigantic
public unions such as the oilworkers union (whose leaders have
become, in largepart, proprietors of this public industry).
Monopolies, public and private, have also survived. Pea Nieto
hasspoken of a renovated PRI, but he has not explained how he would
dismantle these remaining structuresand practices.
To combat poverty, Mexicos economy needs to grow at an
accelerated rate. Current annual growth, at 3.9percent, is passable
but insufficient. Structural reforms, such as opening the declining
petroleum sector toexternal investment and some deregulation of
overly rigid labor laws, are needed. These moves wouldthreaten the
dinosaur mentality, which has always relied heavily on patronage.
Political reform such aspermitting the reelection of congressmen,
senators and mayors, all of whom are limited to one term, wouldmake
them subject to future political accountability.
It is not clear that Pea Nieto has the political will and
persuasive leadership to confront these public andprivate
monopolies. And he may have to deal with immediate unrest in the
streets from those furiouslyopposed to the return of the PRI. They
may claim fraud, to seek an annulment of the election. Will
Mexicoprocess such differences without descending into political
violence? I hope and trust that we can.
But it is another kind of violence, by the narcos and other
criminals, that most concerns the population. Insome states,
criminal groups aim at controlling local governments, and photos
and descriptions of terriblecrimes pervade the newspapers and
social media.
In the past, the government could combat criminal violence
through harshly authoritarian means notacceptable or possible in a
democracy. But along with all its benefits, democracy brought one
paradoxicalresult. By decentralizing control, it strengthened local
power, which also benefited local criminals andfacilitated
alliances between corrupt police and the narcos. Reform of our
police system, which is critical,will require cultivating increased
professionalism and honesty. One of the PRIs most
sordidaccomplishments was its use of various police forces as a
repressive arm of the system, rather than asprotectors of the
people. During Calderns six-year term, 30,000 professionally
trained police were added tofederal forces. We need many more
capable and honest officers, and Pea Nieto has said that, if
elected, hewill make this expansion (and, presumably, purification)
of the police one of his first priorities.
Mexicos problems are immense, but international opinion has at
times been too harsh with my country inrecent years. After
weathering a number of economic crises, we have learned to manage
our finances andimproved public health programs and aid to the
needy. It took Western democracies centuries to establishtheir
systems. With no real previous experience, we have made giant
strides in just a few years.
Major improvements are still needed in education and various
social programs. In fighting drug traffickersMexico would benefit
from greater U.S. cooperation in gathering information, and Mexico
must take bettercontrol of its border and jails.
Whatever happens Sunday, Mexico has seen the genuine and
irreversible advance of democracy. All of thesedifficult moves
became possible only because of the changes since 2000.
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