Canada This Month - July 2020 · COVID-19 Handling: More than 6-in-10 (63%) approve of the federal government [s handling of the outbreak Now thinking about the federal government,

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Canada This Month

Federal PoliticsPublic Opinion Research

Release Date: July 22, 2020Field Dates: July 14 to July 20, 2020

Federal Politics in the time of COVID-19The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. Federally, approval of the government’s handling of the pandemic has been rising, which has translated to the highest government satisfaction that we’ve seen in years. Though approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has remained stable, general satisfaction with the federal government has been declining since May. Even so, Trudeau maintains his lead as the best option for Prime Minister of Canada and the Liberals maintain their lead in vote.

Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from our July 2020 Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from July 14th to July 20th with a weighted sample size of 2,000 and oversamples in Alberta and BC. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix.

This report covers key results on how Canadians are rating the Federal government’s handling of COVID-19 and the impacts that is having for government satisfaction and vote choice.

2

Government ApprovalThe federal government continues to receive high marks, both generally and for their handling of COVID-19 specifically.

3

Federal Satisfaction: A majority (54%) report they are satisfied with the performance of the federal government

Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the FEDERAL government in Canada? Would you say you are...?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

5%

20%

39%

21%

15%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know

Current data: July 2020

Satisfied: 54%

Dissatisfied: 41%

4

Federal Satisfaction Tracking: From a record high of +26% in May, net satisfaction with the federal gov’t is down 13 points to +13% in July

Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the FEDERAL government in Canada? Would you say you are...?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know


8%

37%

28%

28%

15%

39%

20%

21%

5%

5

2015 Election 2019 Election

COVID-19 Handling: More than 6-in-10 (63%) approve of the federal government’s handling of the outbreak

Now thinking about the federal government, do you approve or disapprove of the way the federal government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

4%

13%

37%

10%

25%

11%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nordisapprove

Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know


Approve: 63%

Disapprove: 21%

6

COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Most approve of federal government’s handling of the situation; net satisfaction increased slightly since June

Now thinking about the federal government, do you approve or disapprove of the way the federal government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Mar

-20

Mar

-20

(2

)

Ap

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0 (

2)

Ap

r-2

0 (

3)

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Jul-

20

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove

Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know


17%

33%

14%

16%

17%

3%

25%

37%

13%

10%

11%

4%

7


Read, Seen, HeardA majority have heard something about the government, and among those, impression is mostly negative. This is largely driven by the negative impressions left on those who recall the WE charity scandal.

Read, Seen, Heard Tracking: Over 6-in-10 (62%) recall something about the federal government, up 5 points month-to-month

Have you read, seen or heard anything about Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government in the last few days?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

No Yes

45%

55%

38%

62%

Note: Don’t know not shown.Current data: July 2020.

9

Federal Read, Seen, Heard, Impact Tracking: Impact of RSH has been trending negatively over the past few months

Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less favourable towards Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government?[asked of those who have RSH; n=1235]

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

A lot more favourable Somewhat more favourable Made no difference Somewhat less favourable A lot less favourable

6%

11%

33%

14%

35%

7%

10%

29%

25%

30%

Note: Don’t know not shown.Current data: July 2020.Note: in May ‘18, this question is asked of all respondents except those in Ontario.

10

2015 Election 2019 Election

Federal Read, Seen, Heard: Over 6-in-10 (62%) have RSH about the federal government; mostly leading to a less favourable impression


Have you read, seen or heard anything about Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government in the last few days?[Asked of those who have RSH; n=2000]

38%

62%

YesNo

Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less favourable towards Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government?[Asked of those who have RSH; n=1235]

30%

7%

29%

25%

10%

A lot more favourable

Somewhat more favourable

Made no difference

Somewhat less favourable

A lot less favourable

Less Favourable:55%

More Favourable:17%

11

Over 7-in-10 (72%) recall the WE charity controversy and among those that mention it, impact is strongly negative (-60% net favourability)

And what have you read, seen or heard about Canada’s Prime Minister and the Federal government in the last few days? Please be specific.[Asked of those who have RSH; n=1,235]

72%

15%

7%

5%

3%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

The WE charity controversy

COVID-19 - general (briefings/accouncements, etc.)

Trudeau's apology for the WE scandal

Continued border closure/extension

Extension of COVID-19 financial support: CERB/CEWS

Student volunteer/employment program connected to WE scandal

General negative comment re: Trudeau/Federal government

Trudeau should have recused himself from cabinet (WE)

Canada's deficit and debt

General positive comment re: Trudeau/Federal government

Aid given to provinces from Federal gov't

Trudeau refused trade meeting/relationship with Trump

Other

Don't know

Refused

‘Other’ includes:• A news report/article general• NBC broadcasting NHL game

More fav. No Difference Less fav. NET

5% 29% 66% -60%

47% 32% 21% +27%

12% 28% 60% -47%

43% 47% 10% +33%

38% 40% 22% +16%

13% 32% 56% -43%

8% 31% 62% -54%

4% 17% 79% -74%

Impact by RSH

Note: Impact shown only for responses with a weighted sample size of n>30


13

We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudesWe use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to analyze vote leadership results.

Core Political Values: Majority (54%) feel we should base spending decisions on public need, not the government’s ability to afford it


Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their decisions mainly on…?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

14%

54%

33%Their ability to afford the programs and

services

The public's need for the programs andservices

Don't know

Is the main role of government to…?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

11%

57%

32%

To create equal opportunity so that everyone cancompete on their own to be the best they can be

To redistribute wealth so that the poor anddisadvantaged have more than they would if left

on their own

Don't know

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

17%

39%

44%

The profit system brings out the worst inhuman nature

The profit system teaches people thevalue of hard work and success

Don't know

When it comes to government decision making, which of the following statements is closest to your view?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

15%

45%

40%Too often the government listens to experts

instead of common sense

Provincial issues are complicated sogovernment should listen to experts when it

comes to policy

Don't know

14

Value Clusters: Conservative clusters are smallest, 1-in-4 (25%) categorized as Business LiberalsClusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense.[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]


Deferential Conservatives, 11%

Populist Conservatives, 11%

Business Liberals, 25%

Left Liberals, 14%

Thrifty Moderates, 19%

Core Left, 19%

15

Defining Value Clusters: Conservative clusters much more likely to feel role of government is to create equal opportunity

Column %Deferential

ConservativesPopulist

ConservativesBusiness Liberals Left Liberals

Thrifty Moderates

Core Left

Governments should base decisions on...

Ability to afford 86% 93% 0% 0% 65% 0%

Public Need 0% 0% 95% 90% 0% 91%

Is the main role of government to…

Create equal Opportunity 78% 98% 69% 98% 30% 0%

Redistribute wealth 16% 0% 22% 0% 31% 96%

When it comes to government decision making...

Rely on common sense 0% 100% 34% 45% 41% 30%

Listen to experts 92% 0% 55% 39% 22% 59%

The profit system...

Brings out the worst in human nature

0% 0% 0% 81% 57% 87%

Teaches value of hard work and success

89% 93% 90% 0% 5% 0%

Core Political Values by Value Clusters

Note: Current data: July 2020

16

Segmentation Attitudes: A majority of Canadians feel you can be anything you want if you’re willing to work for it

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? -[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

22%

19%

35%

29%

17%

22%

13%

14%

8%

12%

4%

4%

Here in [PROV] you can be anythingyou want if you are willing to work for it

No matter how hard I work, every yearit seems more difficult to get by

y

x

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know


17

Economic Gap Segmentation: 3-in-10 (31%) do not struggle financially and our optimistic about personal opportunities in their province

Gap segmentation: Agree with 'Here in [PROVINCE] you can be anything you want if you are willing to work for it' BY Agree with 'No matter how hard I work, every year it seems more difficult to get by'.[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]


Achievers, 31%

Strugglers, 26%

Ambivalent, 21%

Alienated, 21%

Believe in “Canadian Dream”, not struggling to get by

Neutral or don’t know on “Canadian Dream”

Believe in “Canadian Dream”, but find it difficult to get by

Don’t believe in “Canadian Dream”

18

Time for Change Tracking: Net ‘time for a change’ sentiment has increased 5 points month-to-month, from +16% in June to +21% in July

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - It is time for a change in government here in Canada[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

39%

39%

39%

37%

25%

29%

29%

31%

17%

17%

18%

18%

17%

18%

19%

18%

16%

19%

18%

18%

19%

16%

18%

18%

9%

8%

8%

9%

12%

14%

13%

11%

13%

9%

11%

11%

22%

18%

18%

17%

7%

7%

7%

7%

5%

4%

4%

5%

Apr-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Oct-19 (2)

May-20

Jun-20

Jun-20 (2)

Jul-20

y

x


19

Best Party for Government Tracking: Net agreement that the Liberals are the best party has dropped 11 points from +16% in June to +6%

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

39%

39%

39%

37%

25%

29%

29%

20%

17%

17%

18%

18%

17%

18%

19%

22%

16%

19%

18%

18%

19%

16%

18%

17%

9%

8%

8%

9%

12%

14%

13%

11%

13%

9%

11%

11%

22%

18%

18%

25%

7%

7%

7%

7%

5%

4%

4%

6%

Apr-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Oct-19 (2)

May-20

Jun-20

Jun-20 (2)

Jul-20

y

x


20

Time for Change Segmentation: 1-in-10 (10%) feel the Liberals are still the best party for government, but that it’s time for a change

Time for Change segmentation: Agree with 'The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government' BY Agree with 'It is time for a change in government here in Canada'.[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]


25%

9%

10%13%

21%

22%

Core LPC Soft LPC Time for change Uncertain Soft anti-LPC Hostile

43% Agree that it is time for a change and do not see LPC as

the best option to form government

34% Do not think it is time for a change

This key battleground segment is voters who think it is time for a change, but still think the LPC are the best option to form a government

21


LeadershipDespite a slight drop in net favourability compared to June, Trudeau shows a dominant lead over Scheer on being the best candidate for Prime Minister.

Leader Favourables: Trudeau shows the strongest net favourabilityamong all candidates, while Scheer elicits a strongly negative reaction

Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that.[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

17%

6%

6%

4%

12%

14%

25%

12%

13%

10%

23%

17%

15%

19%

26%

23%

23%

20%

13%

17%

16%

11%

14%

11%

26%

36%

15%

14%

17%

14%

1%

4%

12%

24%

5%

11%

3%

6%

11%

14%

6%

12%

Justin Trudeau

Andrew Scheer

Peter MacKay

Erin O'Toole

Jagmeet Singh

Yves-Francois Blanchet

y

x

Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable

Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Do not recognize

Don't know


23

Party Leader NET Favourables Tracking: Gap in net favourabilitybetween Trudeau (+3) and Scheer (-34) now at 38 points


Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Sep

-15

(2

)

Oct

-15

Oct

-15

(2

)

Oct

-15

(3

)

May

-17

Oct

-17

Mar

-18

Sep

-18

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Sep

-19

Sep

-19

(2

)

Oct

-19

Oct

-19

(2

)

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Liberal Leader Conservative leader NDP Leader Bloc Leader

Note: Green Leader, People's Party Leader not shown.Current data: July 2020Note: Results for Yves-Francois Blanchet for Quebec respondents only

-20%

+11%+12%

-23%

+3%

-34%

+4%+4%

Stephen Harper Andrew Scheer

Thomas Mulcair Jagmeet Singh

Gilles Duceppe Yves-Francois BlanchetMario Beaulieu

Martine Ouellet

24

-35

-12

-8

-33

-12

-8

-35

-11 -10

-34

-12 -11

Andrew Scheer Peter MacKay Erin O'Toole

May '20 June '20 June '20 (2) July '20

Party Leader NET Favourables Tracking: Favourability of Conservative leaders candidates is low, with O’Toole and McKay tied


25

NET

fav

ou

rab

ility

Leader favourability by value clusters: Populist Conservatives have a net negative impression of all leaders except Scheer

26

-12%

-63%

+20%

+22%

-7%

+26%

Deferential Conservatives

Populist Conservatives

Business Liberals

Left Liberals

Thrifty Moderates

Core Left

-13%

0%

-39%

-44%

-19%

-69%

-22%

-54%

+5%

+22%

+2%

+41%

+6%

-17%

+9%

-2%

+6%

+5%

Andrew Scheer

Justin Trudeau

JagmeetSingh

Yves-François Blanchet*

NET Favourability by Value Clusters:Each chart shows the net favourability (% favourable minus % unfavourable) for each leader within INNOVATIVE’s 6 value cluster segments.*Results for Yves-François Blanchet are from Quebec only.

Leader favourability by Economic Gap: Scheer has strongly negative net favourability among all groups

27

+0%

+4%

+4%

+6%

Achievers

Strugglers

Ambivalent

Alienated -60%

-36%

-10%

-36%

+20%

+7%

+5%

-10%

-19%

-12%

+11%

+18%

NET Favourability by Economic Gap:Each chart shows the net favourability (% favourable minus % unfavourable) for each leader within INNOVATIVE’s 4 economic gap segments.*Results for Yves-François Blanchet are from Quebec only.

Andrew Scheer

Justin Trudeau

JagmeetSingh


Leader favourability by Time for a Change: Trudeau has a positive net favourability among ‘Time for Change’ Liberals

28

-28%

+1%

+20%

0%

+20%

+26%

NET Favourability by Time for a Change:Each chart shows the net favourability (% favourable minus % unfavourable) for each leader within INNOVATIVE’s 6 time for a change segments.*Results for Yves-François Blanchet are from Quebec only.

Andrew Scheer

Justin Trudeau

JagmeetSingh


+84%

+50%

+44%

+11%

-31%

-94%

Core LPC

Soft LPC

Time for a change LPC

Uncertain

Soft anti-LPC

Hostile

-84%

-46%

+1%

-37%

-30%

+6%

+23%

+25%

+35%

+8%

+7%

-45%

Best Prime Minister Tracking: Trudeau (51%) remains dominant on Best PM measure

Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Sep

-15

(2

)

Oct

-15

Oct

-15

(2

)

Oct

-15

(3

)

May

-17

Oct

-17

Mar

-18

Sep

-18

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Sep

-19

Sep

-19

(2

)

Oct

-19

Oct

-19

(2

)

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Jul-

20

Liberal Leader Conservative Leader NDP Leader Bloc Leader Green Leader People's Party Leader


23%

31%

37%

2%

7% 7%

51%

19%18%

5%

7%

29

Stephen Harper Andrew Scheer

Thomas Mulcair Jagmeet Singh

Gilles Duceppe Yves-Francois BlanchetMario Beaulieu

Martine Ouellet

Now we would like to read you a list of different words or phrases that describe the some political leaders. For each word or phrase, please indicate who it BEST describes…[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Leader Qualities: Trudeau leads on all attributes, both positive and negative; Singh’s strongest attribute is “Cares about people like me”

30

31%

29%

26%

26%

27%

31%

11%

14%

12%

13%

14%

25%

12%

13%

17%

19%

15%

4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

5%

2%

3%

3%

6%

4%

5%

2%

5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

6%

19%

19%

17%

16%

17%

20%

15%

12%

12%

13%

13%

11%

Strong leadership

Competent

Represents positive change

Cares about people like me

Stands for what I believe

Dishonest

Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-Francois Blanchet Jo-Ann Roberts Maxime Bernier Undecided None

Q

Strong leadership

Competent

31%

25%

26%

24%

27%

23%

24%

33%

21%

29%

23%

23%

24%

25%

21%

22%

31%

20%

11%

20%

22%

19%

23%

20%

20%

19%

29%

14%

21%

23%

23%

23%

21%

23%

21%

27%

12%

15%

12%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

20%

13%

16%

16%

10%

9%

8%

7%

7%

21%

4%

5%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

3%

4%

5%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

6%

8%

7%

8%

7%

6%

3%

3%

6%

8%

11%

8%

11%

9%

7%

5%

5%

3%

4%

6%

5%

6%

6%

4%

5%

3%

4%

5%

5%

6%

5%

4%

19%

16%

17%

18%

19%

21%

22%

22%

17%

19%

16%

15%

16%

19%

20%

22%

21%

17%

15%

11%

10%

13%

10%

13%

13%

10%

7%

12%

9%

8%

8%

9%

11%

10%

7%

7%

Jul '20

Oct '19 W2

Oct '19 W1

Sep '19 W2

Sep '19 W1

Apr '19

Feb '19

Sep '18

Oct '15 (Pre-Election)

Jul '20

Oct '19 W2

Oct '19 W1

Sep '19 W2

Sep '19 W1

Apr '19

Feb '19

Sep '18


Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-Francois Blanchet

Jo-Ann Roberts Maxime Bernier Undecided None


Leader Qualities: Trudeau is up on ‘Strong Leadership’ since the election, while Scheer is down from 20% to only 11%

31

Q

* The study of 2015 was conducted before the writ was dropped in August 2015. 2015 numbers show Stephen Harper (CPC), Thomas Mulcair (NDP) and Gilles Duceppe (BQ). Results from before 2020 show Elizabeth May (GPC)

Represents positive change

Cares about people like me

26%

18%

20%

21%

23%

21%

21%

31%

26%

20%

20%

21%

22%

21%

20%

26%

25%

12%

20%

21%

21%

23%

19%

20%

14%

13%

18%

20%

20%

21%

19%

18%

17%

18%

17%

23%

19%

13%

11%

11%

9%

19%

19%

21%

18%

15%

12%

11%

10%

11%

20%

4%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

5%

5%

5%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

6%

9%

11%

14%

12%

13%

12%

7%

4%

7%

7%

10%

10%

11%

11%

8%

7%

5%

3%

4%

6%

5%

7%

7%

5%

3%

4%

5%

4%

5%

6%

5%

17%

14%

13%

13%

16%

17%

18%

16%

16%

14%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

20%

15%

12%

8%

8%

10%

8%

10%

11%

11%

13%

13%

12%

12%

12%

13%

13%

10%

11%

Jul '20

Oct '19 W2

Oct '19 W1

Sep '19 W2

Sep '19 W1

Apr '19

Feb '19


Jul '20

Oct '19 W2

Oct '19 W1

Sep '19 W2

Sep '19 W1

Apr '19

Feb '19

Sep '18





Leader Qualities: Trudeau is up on ‘Represents positive change’ to the highest level since the eve of the 2015 election

32

Q


27%

18%

20%

21%

23%

21%

21%

31%

31%

37%

39%

39%

14%

20%

21%

21%

23%

19%

20%

14%

25%

25%

23%

23%

15%

23%

19%

13%

11%

11%

9%

19%

4%

3%

5%

3%

5%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

5%

9%

11%

14%

12%

13%

12%

7%

2%

1%

2%

2%

4%

3%

4%

6%

5%

7%

7%

6%

5%

5%

6%

17%

14%

13%

13%

16%

17%

18%

16%

20%

18%

17%

17%

13%

8%

8%

10%

8%

10%

11%

11%

11%

9%

8%

9%

Jul '20

Oct '19 W2

Oct '19 W1

Sep '19 W2

Sep '19 W1

Apr '19

Feb '19


Jul '20

Oct '19 W2

Oct '19 W1

Sep '19 W2




Leader Qualities: Trudeau leads on ‘Dishonest’, but is lower on the attribute than during the 2019 election

33

Q

Stands for what I believe

Dishonest


Vote is mostly steady month-to-month

34

Vote intention reporting:

When we look at the results among only decided voters, we call that decided vote. These results most tell us what the election results would be like if the survey results matched the election exactly.

When we ask people to think about politics in Canada and identify which party ID they usually seen themselves as, we call those results Federal Party ID.

Federal Combined Vote: More than 1-in-3 (35%) would vote Liberal, giving them an 11-point lead over the CPC

If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean][asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

6%

24%

6%

35%

12%

1%3%

9%

4%

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Peoples Party Other Undecided DK Would not voteNone


35

Federal Vote Tracking: The Liberal vote share remains steady since June, maintaining their double-digit lead over the Conservatives

If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean][asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Jan

-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-09

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

No

v-10

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

No

v-12

Ap

r-1

3

Dec

-13

May

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-15

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

No

v-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

(2

)

Oct

-19

(2

)

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other Undecided DK Would not vote/None


33%

26%

14%

8%8%

1%

9%

1%

24%

35%

12%

6%6%

4%

9%

4%

36

Federal Decided Vote: 4-in-10 (40%) would vote Liberal, less than 3-in-10 (28%) of decided voters say they would vote for the CPC

If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED][decided voters only; n=1,741]

7%

28%

7%

40%

14%

1%3%

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Peoples Party Other


37

Federal Decided Vote Tracking: Decided vote is steady month-to-month with the Liberals maintaining their lead over the CPC

If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED][only decided voters; n=1,741]

Jan

-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8Ja

n-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

l-0

9Se

p-0

9N

ov-

09

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

No

v-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1A

ug-

11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

No

v-1

2A

pr-

13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Ap

r-1

5Ju

l-1

5Se

p-1

5N

ov-

15

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6Ja

n-1

7M

ar-1

7M

ay-1

7A

ug-

17

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8Ju

n-1

8A

ug-

18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9M

ay-1

9Ju

l-1

9Se

p-1

9 (

2)

Oct

-19

(2

)Ja

n-2

0M

ar-2

0M

ay-2

0Ju

n-2

0 (

2)

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other


37%

29%

16%

9%9%

1%

28%

40%

14%

7%7%

4%

38

Decided Vote by Region: Liberals hold a commanding lead in BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada

BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic

(N=246) (N=197) (N=119) (N=685) (N=384) (N=110)

Conservative 25% 45% 43% 30% 12% 27%

Liberal 40% 30% 34% 44% 36% 49%

NDP 20% 15% 12% 15% 10% 12%

Bloc 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 0%

Green 11% 3% 4% 7% 8% 8%

Other 4% 7% 7% 3% 3% 3%

Decided vote by Region

Region

Fed

eral

Dec

ide

d V

ote


39

Decided Vote by Value Cluster: More than a third (35%) of Deferential Conservatives are decided for Liberal party



Business Liberals Left LiberalsThrifty

ModeratesCore Left

(N=207) (N=213) (N=442) (N=246) (N=285) (N=348)

Conservative 45% 68% 25% 18% 28% 5%

Liberal 35% 15% 47% 46% 34% 49%

NDP 5% 3% 12% 18% 12% 29%

Bloc 7% 4% 9% 5% 9% 5%

Green 4% 3% 5% 10% 10% 11%

Other 4% 7% 3% 3% 7% 2%

Value Clusters

Fed

eral

Dec

ide

d V

ote


40

41Value Clusters: Liberals continue to lead in all value groups but the Liberal lead is smallest among Thrifty Moderates

Decided vote: Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc PPC/Other

8%5%

27%

49%55%

29%

3% 5%6% 11%

2% 2%

July '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Post-Election '15 Jan '18 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Oct '19 W2 Jan '20 May '20 Jun '20 Jul '20

Left Liberals

Core Left

Thrifty Moderates

23%

28%25%

34%36%

12%

7%9%

7% 10%

1%7%


15%18%29%

46%42%

18%

7% 5%7% 6%

10%

0% 3%


Note: Individual charts use different y-axes. Use caution when comparing across charts.

42Value Clusters: While the Liberals lead among ‘Business Liberals’, the CPC is ahead in vote among the Conservative groups



Business Liberals


66%68%

14%15%

14%

3%1%

4%3%

1%

7%


30%25%

34%47%

26%12%

5%9%5% 5%

0% 3%


46% 45%

24%35%

23%

5%4%7%

4%3% 4%


Note: Individual charts use different y-axes. Use caution when comparing across charts.

1%

Decided Vote by Economic Gap: Achievers roughly tied between Liberals and CPC, Liberals lead other three economic groups

Achievers Strugglers Ambivalent Alienated

(N=573) (N=472) (N=318) (N=379)

Conservative 36% 30% 21% 19%

Liberal 40% 37% 42% 42%

NDP 8% 12% 17% 24%

Bloc 7% 10% 5% 3%

Green 5% 7% 10% 8%

Other 3% 4% 5% 4%

Economic Gap

Fed

eral

Dec

ide

d V

ote


43

22% 31% 23%27%

28%20% 26%

19%

21%

47%

32%37%

34%36% 40% 38%

49%

42%

19% 16%16% 18% 20%

18% 15%

20%

17%

4% 4%5%

6%6% 7% 8%

2% 5%8%

14% 13%13%

8%10% 8% 7% 10%

1% 3%

6%3% 2% 4% 5% 2%

5%

Oct '16 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Oct '19 W2 Jan '20 May '20 Jun '20 Jul '20

19%

24% 24% 25%

24%22%

18% 18%19%

40% 36% 38%35%

31%38%

44%

39% 42%

21%17% 19% 22%

28%

20%

20%

26%

24%

3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%4% 2% 3%

13% 15% 13% 11%11%

12%9% 11% 8%

3%7%

5% 4% 4%6% 5% 4% 4%


32%

36% 35%36% 34%

32%

31% 29%30%

44%

32%28% 30%

31% 33%

42% 43%

37%

13%13% 14% 14%

17% 13% 10%9%

12%

6% 6% 7% 8%8%

9%7%

8%10%

5%

10% 9%9%

8%

10%6% 8% 7%

1%4% 7% 4%

3%4% 4% 3% 4%


Alienated

30% 33%36%

31% 30%

33%34%

36%36%

54%

41%39%

45% 41% 42%40%

36%

40%

8%

13%9% 10% 13%

9% 9% 9% 8%

2% 4%4%

7% 7%7%

7% 8% 7%4% 7%8%

6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5%1% 2%

5%2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3%



Canadian Dream StrugglersCanadian Dream Achievers

Ambivalent

Federal Vote by Gap Segments: The Liberals lead in all Gap Segments; furthest ahead among Ambivalent and Alienated voters

44

Note: Individual charts use different scales. Use caution when comparing across charts.

Decided Vote by Time for Change: Half (46%) of Time for a Change Liberals say they would still vote for the Liberal party

Core LPC Soft LPC Time for change Uncertain Soft anti-LPC Hostile

(N=477) (N=153) (N=191) (N=142) (N=365) (N=414)

Conservative 1% 8% 16% 15% 33% 72%

Liberal 86% 61% 46% 36% 14% 1%

NDP 7% 16% 17% 25% 24% 8%

Bloc 3% 3% 7% 9% 12% 8%

Green 3% 8% 9% 10% 13% 4%

Other 0% 4% 4% 6% 5% 7%

Time for Change

Fed

eral

Dec

ide

d V

ote


45

Federal 2nd Choice: A plurality don’t have a second choice; from those that do, NDP leads at 20%

And which party would be your second choice?[only decided voters; n=1,741]

2%

10%

13%11%

20%

6%

25%

12%

Conservative 2ndChoice

Liberal 2nd Choice NDP 2nd Choice Bloc 2nd Choice Green 2nd Choice Other 2nd Choice Undecided WNV/None


46

Federal 2nd Choice: Nearly 4-in-10 (37%) likely NDP voters would choose Liberals as their second choice

Conservative 1st Choice

Liberal 1st Choice

NDP 1st Choice Bloc 1st Choice Green 1st Choice

(N=485) (N=694) (N=247) (N=117) (N=126)

Conservative 2nd Choice

0% 13% 10% 14% 12%

Liberal 2nd Choice 13% 0% 37% 13% 19%

NDP 2nd Choice 10% 33% 0% 13% 31%

Bloc 2nd Choice 2% 3% 2% 0% 2%

Green 2nd Choice 7% 16% 26% 17% 0%

Other 2nd Choice 13% 2% 2% 6% 11%

Undecided 30% 25% 18% 28% 22%

WNV/None 25% 9% 6% 10% 3%

And which party would be your second choice? BY [Vote+Lean]

First Choice

Seco

nd

Ch

oic

e

Note: 'Other' in Combined Vote not shown due to insufficient sample size.Current data: July 2020

47

Federal Party ID: 3-in-10 (31%) identify as Liberal, 2-in-10 (21%) as CPC, and 16% as Independent

Now we have just a few last questions for statistical purposes. Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a…[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

5%

21%

7%5%

31%

11%

16%

2% 2%

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Québécois Green People's Party Something else(Please specify)

None/Independent Don't know


48

Federal Party ID (Quebec vs. ROC): A plurality identify as Liberal; in Quebec, 2-in-10 (21%) identify as Bloc


Party ID: Quebec[Respondents in Quebec; n=467]

21%

10%

30%

6%

9%

24%

Conservative NDP Other

Party ID: Rest of Canada[Respondents in the rest of Canada; n=1,533]

25%

32%

12%

10%

22%

Conservative Liberal NDP Other UnalignedLiberal Bloc Unaligned

Federal Party ID Tracking: Liberals continue to lead on party ID with no significant change month-to-month

Now we have just a few last questions for statistical purposes. Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a…[asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Ap

r-1

1

Oct

-13

Mar

-15

May

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Sep

-19

(2

)

Oct

-19

Oct

-19

(2

)

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Jul-

20

Conservative Liberal NDP Other Unaligned


32%

27%

13%

17%

11%

21%

31%

11%

14%

22%

50

Combined Vote by Party ID: Both Liberal and CPC partisans appear most loyal, with roughly 9-in-10 partisans voting along party lines

Conservative Liberal NDP Other Unaligned

(N=418) (N=608) (N=205) (N=279) (N=231)

Conservative 88% 4% 6% 8% 27%

Liberal 6% 89% 12% 12% 30%

NDP 2% 3% 78% 7% 17%

Bloc 1% 1% 1% 33% 7%

Green 1% 2% 2% 30% 9%

Other 3% 1% 1% 11% 9%

Federal Party Identification

Fed

eral

Co

mb

ined

Vo

te


51

ReopeningAs in June, a majority say the federal government is reopening the economy at ‘the right pace’. But those in Western Canada are increasingly saying the federal government is going ‘too fast’.

% Too Fast

26%

23%

27%

20%

6%

5%

8%

6%

20%

19%

19%

15%

52%

55%

50%

52%

9%

10%

10%

11%

5%

6%

6%

7%

8%

6%

8%

10%

July 14-20

June 17-30

May 29-June 1

May 15-20

Far too fast Somewhat too fast About the right pace Somewhat too slow Far too slow Don't know

53Easing Restrictions, Federal: A majority still say the federal government is easing restrictions at the right pace (52%)

Now, thinking about the steps the federal government has taken so far to ease restrictions on businesses and social contacts, do you think the federal government has gone too fast, has gone too slow, or has gone about the right pace? [asked of all respondents; n=2,000]

Easing Restrictions, Federal: Those in Prairies most likely to say federal gov’t has gone ‘too fast’ (35%), while those in Atlantic are least likely


54

% Too Fast

26%

27%

30%

35%

25%

26%

16%

6%

4%

6%

13%

6%

7%

5%

20%

23%

24%

22%

19%

19%

12%

52%

51%

41%

46%

55%

51%

65%

9%

10%

10%

8%

9%

10%

4%

5%

5%

9%

5%

4%

4%

5%

8%

7%

10%

5%

7%

10%

9%

Overall

BC

Alberta

Prairies

Ontario

Quebec

Atlantic

y

x

Far too fast Somewhat too fast About the right pace Somewhat too slow Far too slow Don’t know

Easing Restrictions, Federal: Those saying the federal government has gone too fast are up in BC, Alberta, and the Prairies


55

% Too Fast

27%

21%

22%

23%

30%

23%

22%

19%

35%

12%

26%

15%

4%

3%

7%

5%

6%

6%

7%

7%

13%

2%

8%

5%

23%

18%

15%

19%

24%

17%

16%

12%

22%

10%

18%

10%

51%

62%

55%

51%

41%

47%

47%

48%

46%

57%

47%

58%

10%

9%

10%

10%

10%

16%

16%

13%

8%

13%

11%

14%

5%

5%

6%

5%

9%

8%

7%

10%

5%

12%

5%

5%

7%

3%

8%

11%

10%

6%

8%

10%

5%

6%

10%

8%

July 14-20

June 17-30

May 29-June 1

May 15-20

July 14-20

June 17-30

May 29-June 1

May 15-20

July 14-20

June 17-30

May 29-June 1

May 15-20y

x


BC

Alberta

Prairies

Easing Restrictions, Federal: The share of Canadians saying the federal government is reopening too fast is steady or down in Eastern regions


56

% Too Fast

25%

25%

28%

21%

26%

25%

30%

21%

16%

23%

27%

17%

6%

5%

7%

5%

7%

5%

10%

7%

5%

4%

7%

5%

19%

20%

21%

16%

19%

19%

20%

13%

12%

19%

20%

12%

55%

54%

50%

51%

51%

53%

47%

49%

65%

61%

54%

62%

9%

9%

8%

11%

10%

10%

10%

10%

4%

6%

8%

8%

4%

6%

8%

8%

4%

5%

3%

5%

5%

5%

3%

4%

7%

6%

7%

8%

10%

8%

9%

15%

9%

5%

8%

9%

July 14-20

June 17-30

May 29-June 1

May 15-20

July 14-20

June 17-30

May 29-June 1

May 15-20

July 14-20

June 17-30

May 29-June 1

May 15-20y

x


Ontario

Quebec

Atlantic


Methodology

These are the results of an online survey conducted between July 14th to

July 20th, 2020.

Method: This online survey was conducted using INNOVATIVE's Canada 20/20 national

research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a leading provider of online

sample. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the

panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the

actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended

to approximate a probability sample.

Sample Size: n=2,599 Canadian citizens, 18 years or older. Regional oversamples in Alberta

and BC were used in order to adequately capture perspective on those provinces. The

results are nationally weighted to n=2,000 based on Census data from Statistics Canada.

Field Dates: July 14th to July 20th, 2020.

Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure that the

overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census

data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.

Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table.

Margin of Error: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not

a random probability based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements

about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online

panels.

Survey Methodology

Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in

data. Sums are added before rounding numbers.

58

Unweighted (n)

Unweighted (%)

Weighted (n)

Weighted (%)

Men 18-34 259 10.0% 275 13.8%

Men 35-54 333 12.8% 334 16.7%

Men 55+ 646 24.9% 362 18.1%

Women 18-34 401 15.4% 272 13.6%

Women 35-54 459 17.7% 347 17.4%

Women 55+ 501 19.3% 409 20.4%

BC 441 17.0% 272 13.6%

AB 344 13.2% 227 11.4%

Prairies 136 5.2% 133 6.7%

ON 974 37.5% 764 38.2%

QC 565 21.7% 467 23.4%

Atlantic 139 5.3% 136 6.8%

For more information, please contact:

Greg LylePresident(t) 416-642-6429(e) [email protected]

© 2020 Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc.

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