Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PORTUGUESE ECONOMYPORTUGUESE ECONOMY EVOLUTION
A ó i d SAntónio de Sousa
NOVEMBER 2011
AGENDA
Portuguese economy evolution
Exports pattern
Degree of opennessg p
Internal market
Consequences
The future
Summary
NOVEMBER 2011
Summary
AGENDA
Portuguese economy evolution
Exports pattern
Degree of opennessg p
Internal market
Consequences
The future
Summary
NOVEMBER 2011
Summary
Portuguese economy evolution: productive structure of exports
Structure of Portuguese merchandise exports
5ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Statistics Portugal
But it is still relatively closed
Degree of openness (volume of imports and exports as a percentage of GDP*)
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product
6ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Banco de Portugal, Bank of Greece, ECB, Eurostat, National Bank of Belgium, Statistics Portugal
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.
AGENDA
Trends in Portuguese economy
Exports pattern
Degree of opennessg p
Internal market
Consequences
The future
Summary
NOVEMBER 2011
Summary
Internal market went sky high as households’ consumption increased…
Nominal private consumption
8ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Ameco, Statistics Portugal
… as well as their respective debt,
Household indebtedness
∆ = 94 p.p.
9ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Ameco, ECB, Statistics Portugal
… and government expenses.
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product
10ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Portugal
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.
AGENDA
Trends in Portuguese economy
Exports pattern
Degree of opennessg p
Internal market
Consequences
The future
Summary
NOVEMBER 2011
Summary
Trade balance deficits
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product
12ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Banco de Portugal, Statistics Portugal
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.
External debt increase in volume and relative to GDP
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product
13ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Banco de Portugal, Eurostat
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.
Budget deficit
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product
14ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Eurostat, IMF
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.
Public debt
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product
15ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Eurostat
* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.
AGENDA
Trends in Portuguese economy
Exports pattern
Degree of opennessg p
Internal market
Consequences
The future
Summary
NOVEMBER 2011
Summary
The future
Restraining private consumption
Restraining public consumption and irrelevant public Restraining public consumption and irrelevant public consumption
Overcome structural bottlenecks Overcome structural bottlenecks
In order to:D Decrease taxes
State flexibility and size New credibilityNew credibility Additional private investment (national and international)
17ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
AGENDA
Trends in Portuguese economy
Exports pattern
Degree of opennessg p
Internal market
Consequences
The future
Summary
NOVEMBER 2011
Summary
Good news
Balance of trade Projections of total public expenses as a percentage of GDP
Objectives of public spending
Economic and social public investment analysisa a ys s
Source: Ministry of Finance
19ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Constraints
Unemployment
20ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Ameco, Statistics Portugal
Constraints
Disposable Income
21ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011
Source: Ameco, Statistics Portugal
PORTUGUESE ECONOMYPORTUGUESE ECONOMY EVOLUTION
A ó i d SAntónio de Sousa
NOVEMBER 2011
One Year LaterA Resilient Business Model
Vasco de Mello
2
One year later
Deep changes on financial markets
Deep changes on the economy
Deep changes on the political arena
Very significant changes in our business environment over the last 12 monthsMost of them not totally expected
Brisa maintained a strong cash flow generation
Deep changes
on financial markets
4
Deep changes on financial markets
Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3Ba1Ba2Ba2
Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2
Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2
Dec - 10 Feb - 11 Mar - 11 Apr - 11
Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2
Jul - 11
Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2
Portugal downgraded to non investment grade (7 levels down)Brisa two notches above the Republic
Moody's Rating on Portugal and BCR
BCR: under review
Investmentgrade
Sub-investmentgrade
5
AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-
AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-
AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-
Dec - 10 Jan - 11 Feb - 11
AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-
Mar - 11
Credit WatchNegative
AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-
Apr - 11
Fitch's Rating on Portugal and BCR
Portugal from A+ to BBB- (5 levels down)Brisa two notches above the Republic
Deep changes on financial markets
Investmentgrade
Sub-investmentgrade
6
Deep changes on financial markets
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan‐09
Mar‐09
May‐09
Jul‐0
9
Sep‐09
Nov
‐09
Jan‐10
Mar‐10
May‐10
Jul‐1
0
Sep‐10
Nov
‐10
Jan‐11
Mar‐11
May‐11
Jul‐1
1
Sep‐11
Portugal Spain Greece Germany
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan‐09
Mar‐09
May‐09
Jul‐0
9
Sep‐09
Nov
‐09
Jan‐10
Mar‐10
May‐10
Jul‐1
0
Sep‐10
Nov
‐10
Jan‐11
Mar‐11
May‐11
Jul‐1
1
Sep‐11
Portugal Spain Greece Germany
Unseen increase of credit spreads
Yields on 10y Portuguese Bonds soar from 6% to 11%1
Yields on Brisa Bonds followed same trend, from 3% to 10%1
Brisa bond yields soar from 3% to 10%
Sovereign yields 10y (2009-2011) Sovereign CDS’s (2009-2011)(basis points)
1 17th November quotes, source Bloomberg
7
Brisa share and Portugal risk
Too much correlation between Portuguese risk and Brisa share performance
Unseen decrease in Brisa’s share price linked to perceived sovereign risk
Deep changes on financial markets
€5.5€5.0€4.5€4.0€3.5€3.0€2.5€2.0€1.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0Jan Mar May Jul Sep
1000/CDS Portugal 5yr Brisa
8
Deep changes on financial markets
Too high risk-free rates
– Using Brisa or Portuguese bond yields as risk-free rates is conceptually wrong
– Both rates are not risk-free
– Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds
– Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid
– BCR has refinanced €600m at a spread of 475 bps well bellow Brisa bond yields of around 800 bps
Too much liquidity concerns
– BCR has successfully refinanced and has no liquidity issue until 2014
Even though Rating agencies and creditorsclearly recognize that Brisa risk is lower
Excessive risk put on Brisa valuations
Deep changes on
macro environment
10
Deep changes on macro environment
Quarterly Portuguese GDP has been declining
Portuguese GDP
From growth to a recession in less than a year
Last November the consensus was that Portuguese GDP would be flat in 2011, now the estimate points to a decline of around 1.6%
GDP quarter on quarter (yoy change)
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
1Q 2Q 3Q
2010
2011
1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1%
-0.5%-0.9%
-1.7%
11
Deep changes on macro environment
On average fuel prices increase +18% YTD on top of an increase of 14% in 2010
Fuel Prices at Portuguese gas pumps
In spite of lower economic growth fuel prices had a significant increase
Gasoline (price at the pump – eur./liter) Diesel (price at the pump – eur./liter)
13%
Q1
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
13%
Q2
13%
Q3 Q4
― 2010― 2011
24% 19% 17%
Q1
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.0
0.9Q2 Q3 Q4
― 2010― 2011
12
Deep changes on macro environment
VAT increase from 21% to 23%1
VAT product categorization shifted upwards
Increase IRS tax
Special tax on private income
– Half of December 2011 extra pay reverts to the State
5% cut on public wages
Available income strongly affected
One year ago, the IMF intervention and the heavy 1st austerity package were unexpected
1Increase from 1 January 2011 onwards
13
Deep changes on macro environment
Quarterly Like for like traffic on BCR has been declining
Recession + fuel prices + less available income= traffic decrease
Direct impact on toll revenues
BCR traffic quarter on quarter (yoy change)
In February our forecast for 2011 was a negative LfL of -2% (in line with 4Q10). Now our forecast is between -6% to -7%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q2010 2011
-1.6%-0.5%
-2.0% -2.3%
-5.8%
-8.0%
0.0%
Deep changes on
the political arena
15
Deep changes on the political arena
Former Government loses mandate and early elections are called (June 2011)
Whilst before Portugal had a minority government now a majority rules the Country
The previous ruling party, now the main opposition party, signed the EU / IMF memorandum
85% of parliament signed the new austerity package
New Government, strong majority
The good news, a strong politicalcommitment to reform
16
Deep changes on the political arena
Public workers lose extra 1/7 of yearly income
Private sector workers suffer higher IRS charges
VAT product categorization is shifted upwards, once again
Steep price increase on government services and fixed tariffs
Increase in corporate tax
Privatization of several state assets
Short term negative impact, but positive on the medium term
New package of austerity measures for 2012
17
Deep changes on the political arena
Higher inflation linked tariff increase
Revision of all PPPs, starting with EP subconcessions
All the new infrastructure projects called off or suspended
– ELOS high speed rail project on hold
Consolidation of the user payer system, particularly with tolls in former shadow tolls
ANA airport operator privatization
Track record of strong rule of law and low regulatory risk
More opportunities than threats
Austerity measures impact on Brisa
What have we done to cope
with adverse changes?
19
What have we done?
Constantly accessing bank facilities
– June: BCR refinanced and extended €100m
– September: BCR issued a €50m floating rate bond
– November: BCR renewed and extended medium term financing in a total of €600m
Low cost in current context
Average spreads of 475 b.p.
Liquidity lines held mostly with long-term relationship international banks
Sound liquidity position until 2014
Reinforce liquidity
20
What have we done?
International projects scaled down
– Focus on O&M services, light capital projects
Reduced expenditures to balance lower toll revenues
Act on 2011
– CAPEX reduction of €15m vs. initial guidance
– OPEX reduction of €5m vs. 2010 (excluding VV & tolling equipment sales)
Launch of new efficiency projects
2011 cash flow (EBITDA - CAPEX) In line with previous year
Adjust new projects
Preserve cash flow
Brisa in 2011 was able to
react to a very adverse
business environment and
maintained a strong cash flow generation
proving again a very resilient business
New Efficiency Measures
António Nunes de Sousa
2
New efficiency measures
Brisa has kept EBITDA margins due to increased efficiency, despite traffic declines
Focus on efficiency as a value driver
Total traffic growth EBITDA margin
2007 +3,2% 71,1%
2008 -4,5% 70,2%
2009 -2.0% 71,2%
2010 -2.9% 71,8%
3
New efficiency measures
Brisa has been able to deliver significant cost reduction.
Even though network has been expanding
Consolidated LfL annual cost reduction
-7%
-3% -3%
2009 2010 2011
4
13061432
1496 15071583
New efficiency measures
O&M cost per operated km has decreased significantly in the last 5 years
Brisa is one of the most efficient national road networks in the world
CAGR-13%
km in operation
Cost per km
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Toll automationBEG downsize CAPEX innovation
New Efficiency Projects
New Efficiency Projects
Toll automationBEG downsize CAPEX innovation
7
New efficiency projects
Up until last year BCR only had 2 toll collecting systems:
– Via Verde, non stop electronic toll collection
– Manual toll collection
Tolling automation
Increase automation through new system
Since August 2010, a 3rd system was introduced:
- Etoll machines, automatic cash and card tolling machines in the Toll Plazas
8
Target(Nov/10)
Results (YE2011)
Toll OperatorsReduction (1) 1/4 1/3
Severance Pay 6m € 7m €
Savings 5.5m € 8.5m €
Extra Maintenance 2.0m € 2.1m€
Net Savings (2) 3.5m € 6.4m€
New efficiency projects
Strong delivery well above initial forecast
(1) Brisa employees and manpower(2) Personnel costs and third parties
Tolling automationEtoll project
249
€12.6 m
# machines
CAPEX
In line with estimates
Project development
9
11%
65%24%
New efficiency projects
Tolling automationEtoll cash machines
Automation rate increased 14 p.p. in just over one year
Toll transactions breakdown
38% 62%
Before (June 2010) After (Sept, 2011)
Manual toll collectionManual E-tollVia Verde
Total Automation Rate of 76%
10
New efficiency projects
100% Etoll
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
32
46
8
7
100% Etoll (Night)
Etoll + OP.
No EtollOperation
93 Toll Plazas
Types of toll plazas
Low Intensity Traffic
Low Intensity Traffic (Night)
High Intensity Traffic
Special Cases
Full automation more straightforward on low intensity traffic
11
Drivers for higher automationShadow Tolls conversion to real tolls
New efficiency projects
Real tolls were introduced on 3 former shadow tolls in October of 2010.
They are 100% automated, drivers must have a tag. The alternative (photo tolling) requires extra fees, is more bureaucratic and it does not allow discounts for locals.
Previous shadow toll conversions have led to a real increase in Via Verde usage in those areas, from 58% to 70% of transactions
Shortly the remaining 4 shadow tolls will also be converted to real tolls, thus increasing Via Verde penetration rate.
New drivers will join Via Verde
Grande Porto
Costa da Prata
Norte Litoral
Beira Interior
Interior Norte
Algarve
Beira Alta
Former shadow tollsRemaining shadow tolls
Oporto
Lisbon
12
New efficiency projects
In the coming two years, new motorways will be opening in Portugal (Brisa & non Brisa)
New drivers will join Via Verde
992013Baixo Alentejo
Fully open Total km
Baixo Tejo 2012 70
Transmontana 2012 133
Túnel do Marão 2012 26
Litoral Oeste 2012 109
Pinhal Interior 2013 239
Drivers for higher automationNew EP subconcessions
They will be 100% automatized, thus increasing Via Verde penetration rate
Pinhal I.
Litoral Oeste
Baixo Tejo
Baixo Alentejo
Transmontana
Túnel do Marão
Oporto
Lisbon
13
New efficiency projects
Online distribution of Via Verde tags
Online customer relationship and services (invoicing, license plate and personal data changes, split billing etc.)
New online initiatives
Drivers for higher automationVia Verde sales & marketing
Via Verde tags/contractsAverage monthly new clients (thousands)
Total clients (millions)
2.32.5
2.9
2009 2010 9M11
8.3
21.1
33.6
2009 2010 9M11
14
New efficiency projects
This second round can be launched when a high automation rate is achieved (around 90%, probably by 2014)
The equipment necessary is already in place – no extra CAPEX required
Since no extra equipment is required, the OPEXregarding maintenance would be stable as well
The only additional costs would be those regarding severance pay
Annual savings of €3m
Drivers for higher automationSecond round of the Etoll program
15
New efficiency projects
80 to 90 % Automation rate can be reached by 2014
Automationrate
75%
90%
Projects & events
New motorwayopenings
Via VerdeMarketing
Shadow tollsreversion
E-toll
Drivers for higher automation
New Efficiency Pojects
Toll automationBEG downsize CAPEX innovation
17
New efficiency measures
Major construction work is concluding:
– Douro Litoral (concluded)
– Baixo Tejo (to be concluded in 2012)
– Litoral Oeste (to be concluded in 2012)
Less construction work (widenings) will be required in the future due to traffic slowdown
Strategic competencies retained for the future
BEG – Ongoing major projects
Construction of new infrastructures is concluding
18
New efficiency projects
Strategic know-how for Brisa projects(widenings and road maintenance CAPEX)
Safety at site
Works Supervising
Environment
Land Expropriation
Quality Control
Studies and Designs Coordination
Engineering worksand pavements
Labor Safety
Technical Services
BEG – Brisa Engenharia e GestãoProject Management Services
ConstructionSupport Services
Ongoing Support Services
Team of 220 employees (mostly engineers)
19
New efficiency measures
Due to the conclusion of construction works, BEG will adjust its cost structure to the expected lower activity
The expenditure cuts, on a total of €8 m, will be implemented in a balanced manner, starting next year
On consolidated accounts, the savings will be in OPEX and CAPEX, since some of the costs are capitalized
The downsize program will imply severance payments
Annual savings of €8 m
BEG – Downsize potential
New Efficiency Projects
Toll automationBEG downsizeCAPEX innovation
21
Lower traffic levels =
less widening needs
01
New efficiency measures
CAPEX reductionThere are 2 levels of CAPEX optimization:
Significant lower annual CAPEX
02Changes in construction practices
=new efficiency measures
22
New efficiency measures
Brisa launched an internal project in Q1 2011 which has led to significant structural reductions in future CAPEX in both widenings and major repairs
Widenings
– New standards for lane widenings (3 lanes instead of 3 and a half)
– Changes in current technical norms
– Review of projected widenings
Major repairs
– new cost cutting measures and changes in the current technical legislation
Cost savings of 15% on CAPEX
CAPEX innovationChanges in construction practices
23
Capex Innovation examples
Actual total 2x3 lanes widening: 36,6 – 28 = 8,6m New total 2x3 lanes widening: & 33 – 28 = 5m
Reducing the total length /span of the cross-section Original Highway Cross-Section: 28 m
Actual Widening 2x3 lanes Highway Cross-Section: 36,6 m
New Widening 2x3 lanes Highway Cross-Section: 33 m
Actual
New
24
Original Columns and Foundations
New Columns and Foundations
Reducing the investment on demolition of the old bridge, the new road and land acquisition
Maintaining original bridge’s deck
Capex Innovation examples
25
Reducing the investment: construction of just the new top-most asphalt layer
Micro-Milling of the old pavement surface
Capex Innovation examples
All added:significant cash savings
27
New efficiency measures
Ongoing projects combined with lower CAPEX requirements will provide significant savings
By 2014, annual cash outflow reduction of €45 m versus previous plan
Projects will be implemented gradually
Some projects will require some severance pay
New efficiency projects
€15m€15m
€8m€3m
€4m €45m
TrafficReduction
CAPEXoptimization
BEG downsizing(opex & capex)
Higherautomation
(opex)
ProcessesOptimization &
Synergies
Total
Brisa PortfolioPedro Rocha e Melo
2
Brisa portfolio
60%
36%
16%
100%
100%
100%
60%
Update on businesses main issues
BrisaParent Co
* Simplified organizationalchart for illustrative purposes
O&MServices
OtherInfrastructures
Motorway Concessions
50%
70%
30%
15%
45%
100% 100%
Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste & ElosBrisal & Douro LitoralBCR
4
Projects may be scaled down but will
not change base case profitability
Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste and ELOS
Network length 68 km (17 tolled)Concession term - 2038 Availability payments - 55% Brisa Equity 18 M€
Network length 112 km (19 tolled)Concession term - 2039 Availability payments - 76% Brisa Equity 14 M€
Network length 165 kmConcession term - 2049 Availability payments – 95%Brisa Equity 20 M€
Government wishes to reduce costs associated with these projects
Projects under development
Project can be scaled down or be
canceled
Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste & ElosBrisal & Douro LitoralBCR
6
Brisal
Key characteristics- 1 motorway: A17- Network length: 92 km- Term: 2034 (expected)
Fully open since April 2008- Current traffic (ADT): 6468 vehicles/day- Total debt: €519m (9M 2011)- Project finance, non-recourse
Operational profile
Project is underperforming due to traffic levels
Oporto
Lisbon
A17
7
Unilateral change on the base case assumptions is a cause for rebalancing request
Concession rebalance compensationwas submitted
Brisal
On the project base case, Costa da Prata free motorway was a traffic inducer to Brisal as part of the same corridor
Traffic decreased significantly, around 30%, since tolls were installed on Costa da Prata, on Oct2010
-30%
Beginning of the toll collection in Costa da Prata concession
AEA – Brisal -- Costa da Prata corridor
A29 Costa da Prata
A17 -Brisal
Oporto
Lisbon
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2009/2010
2010/2011
8
Oporto
Lisbon
Fully open since October 2011
Douro
A 43- Length: 8 km- Open to traffic: September 2010
A 41- Length: 33 km- Open to traffic: April 2011
A 32- Length: 35 km- Open to traffic: Oct 2011
Key characteristics– 3 motorways A32, A41, A43– Tolled network length 76 km– Term 2034
A32
A43A41
9
Cost overruns due to imposed corridorare a cause for indemnity claim
Douro
On the final concession agreement there was a possibility for an alternative corridor (A32)
It was under this assumption that the consortium bid for the project
Brisa consortium submitted the alternative corridor (less expensive and higher traffic inducer) which the Grantor rejected and refused to discuss
A claim was submitted this year to the Grantor as a result of the overrun construction costs supported by Brisa
Indemnity claim was submitted
10
Douro
Douro concession was expected to have free road traffic feeder linked to it – the AE Centro
AE Centro concession would have been completed by 2012
The tender for AE Centro was suspended so Dourowill not be getting its induced traffic, leading now to almost nowhere
AEDL
AE Centro(toll free)
AEDL
AE Centro ?
BAFO assumption Most likely outcome
Concession rebalance compensation to be submitted
Unilateral change on the base case assumptions is a cause for rebalancing request
11
Brisal & Douro
Brisal & Douro have solid legal cases
Seeking balanced solutions
Going forward
Both concessions had formal negotiation processes with the Grantor which aimed to change to EP sub-concessions (availability payments) and to address compensation claims
Since negotiations were suspended by the former Portuguese Government, Brisal and Douro decided to proceed with formal claims for rebalancing compensation
Final outcome of the compensation claims will be settled through either legal channels or direct negotiations with the Grantor
The rebalancing of the concessions will also involve creditors in order to adapt current project finance, so that an agreed solution is reached among all stakeholders
Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste & ElosBrisal & Douro LitoralBCR
13
Light vehiclesHeavy vehiclesTotal Growth
% Heavy Vehicles
Traffic Growth
-1,7%5,3%
-1,4%
5,1%
9M2011
Organic traffic growth highly affected by the macroeconomic context and fuel prices
Introduction of real toll collection in Costa da Prata, Grande Porto and Norte Litoralconcessions with significant positive effect
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010
2011
2011 traffic performance is being impacted by different effects…
Organic growthCalendar effectsShadow tollsCompetitionA9 LanslideTotal Growth
Traffic Growth 9M2011
-5.7%-0.6%5.3%
-0.6%0.2%
-1.4%
BCR
Monthly Average Daily Traffic
14
66 339
6 870
16 396
24 321
31 673
17 075
5 182
24 71321 586
4 993 5 244
63 036
6 497
15 059
24 91431 575
16 527
4 777
21 50319 635
4 561 4 721
-5,0%
-5,4%-13,0%
A14 A5A10A9A13A12A6A2A4A3A1
2011
2010
… which implied different network dynamics
Real toll in former SCUT’s effect
Macroeconomic degradation associated with less leisure trips (specially in Q3)
CRILconclusion effect
PureCommu-
ting
BCR
2,4%-3,2%-0,3%
-10%-7,8%-8,2% -8,7%-9,0%
Traffic growth per motorway
15
Organic Traffic Case Studies2005 2009
GDP Fuel Organic Growth
2007
In extreme variation conditions, fuel price affects traffic growth more than GDP
In normal macroeconomic environment, the GDP
growth represents the main traffic growth driver
BCR
0.8%
17.2%
Organic GrowthGDP Fuel
-1.3%
1.9%
3.2% 3.0%
Organic GrowthGDP Fuel
-18,6%
0,5%
-2,5%
16
2011 – 9M
2011 represents the worst combination from the last 10 years, with
simultaneous steep fuel price increase and negative GDP growth
In 2012 this combination is not foreseen: GDP will decline but fuel prices should stabilize
2011 macro context worse than initially forecasted
BCR
-1,1%
17.7%
Organic GrowthGDP Fuel
-5.7%
17
Negative GDP growth [-2,5%;-3%]
Worse seasonality (less leasure trips in the summer)
Stable fuel price
Second traffic recovery due to the end of toll exceptions/discounts in Costa daPrata, Grande Porto and Norte Litoral concessions (July 2012)
Year 2012 Forecast
Normal seasonality
Affected seasonality
Traffic expected to decrease around 5%Tariffs will be increased by 4%
BCR
Major Assumptions
=
18
90
100
110
120
Passenger.km and GDP (2001=100)
GDP
Passenger
Source: EU Transport in Figures 2011, Eurostat
In Portugal, passenger transport (cars+buses+metro+railways) has been growing above GDP
Personal transport continues to increase its market share (85% in 2009) against public transport
Transport services offer expected to be reduced due to financial unsustainability of public companies
In the last 5 years, public transport costs increased 28% (CPI increased 9%)
Another heavy increase in public transport services is expected, while tolls will increase, approximately at CPI
BCR
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Looking forward traffic will continue to grow
Increasing mobility through personal transport growth
19
Source: Census 2011 preliminary data, INE
Brisa links the most densely populated and tourist regions, the main ports, airports and the Spanish borders
High quality and time saved at competitive prices create value to client: a strong competitive advantage in route choice alternatives
Urban sprawling will continue, which means greater need for individual transport modes
Although Portuguese population should continue to be stable, internal migration from countryside to littoral will benefit Brisa network
BCR
Population growth from 2001 to 2011
Looking forward traffic will continue to grow
Strategic network location Favorable demographics trends
20
Despite unfavorable macro context, in the last 5 years Brisa maintained its market share, being as resilient as Portuguese traffic
Portuguese road network is now consolidated: no risk of future competition
Brisa motorways demand consists not only of work trips (average weekday ADT is higher than average weekend traffic), but is also very positively impacted by leisure trips (particularly at summer months and on holidays)
BCR
Looking forward traffic will continue to grow
No further competitionDiversified demand
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
October 5th November 1st
Impact of holidays in October 2010
Source: Brisa
‐8.0%‐6.0%‐4.0%‐2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9M 2011
Brisa Organic Fuel Sales Volume
Brisa Organic Traffic and Fuel Sales
Source: Direcção Geral de Energia e Geologia; Brisa
21
Significant Capex reduction due to:
Widening requirements
BCR concession agreement has a natural hedge against traffic reductions since widening requirements are trigged by traffic levelsRecent decreases in traffic imply delays in the short-term and less widenings in the long term Several triggers were concentrated in the last years of the concession (mainly 2X4 widening's)For illustration purposes, a 5% decrease in the base traffic could delay one widening for 3 yearsIn some cases less widenings may imply an increase in resurfacing works, although the cost per km is much lower
BCR
Changes in project procedures & practices (capex innovation)
Implementation of measures related with wideningsand major repairs capex which will produce significant structural reductions
22
CapexReal terms, annual average amounts, M€
Considers GDP growth above 2% in
the long term(2017-35)*
BCR
CAPEX BCRPrevious Plan
2011-15 2016-35
Growth 65 32
Maintenance 25 25
Equipments 5 8
Total CAPEX 95 65
CAPEX BCRNew Plan
2012-16 2017-35
Growth 35 25
Maintenance 25 20
Equipments 5 5
Total CAPEX 65 50
*GDP growth lower in 1 p.p. implies savings of 10M€
23
Capex PlanTotal Capex Reduction (base 100)
Traffic effect
Current Plan
A- Project
Base 2010
Mix (type of works)
100
Growth
Maintenance
Equipments
2011
100
2010
Significant CAPEX reduction
BCR
24
BCR resilient cash flow generation
EBITDA – Capex
Revised EBITDA – Capex expected to grow on average 5% per year until 2016
+5%
2016E2015E2014E2013E2012E2011E2010
BCR
293291
25
BCR
In 2011, BCR organic traffic has been penalized by an unlikely negative simultaneous combination of steep fuel prices increase and negative GDP growth
However, traffic will grow again above GDP as soon as the Portuguese Economy grows because BCR traffic drivers remain the same:
– Increasing mobility trends– Network strategic location & strong competitive advantages– Favorable demographics– No future competition– Diversified demand
BCR is indeed a resilient business and a strong cash-flow generator: – “EBITDA-Capex” maintained in spite of the negative traffic performance– Future capex reduced in 25% when compared with the previous plan– “EBITDA - Capex” expected to grow, on average, 5% per year until 2016
Wrap up
Strong cash-flow generation
Financing
João Azevedo Coutinho
Debt, Liquidity & FinancingBCR
Other Motorway Concessions
Brisa Parent
3
Overview
Strong and resilient financial position
Financing
Brisa has adequate financial resources to satisfy both creditors and shareholders
BCR has assured liquidity for the medium term
BCR will continue to analyze varied financing alternatives
4
Brisa
BCR Brisal DouroLitoral
Atlantico Litoral OesteBaixo Tejo Northwest Parkway
BCRStrong financial profile
The main asset, generating about 85% of consolidated EBITDA
Other concessionsAmortising long-term project finance
Funded through project finance, non recourse to Parent Co.
* Simplified organizationalchart for illustrative purposes
All assets are ring-fencedBCR is the main cash provider
Asset overview
Rated Debt Project Finance Project Finance Project Finance Project Finance
Group structure
Other Co’s
Parent Co
Debt, Liquidity & FinancingBCR
Other Motorway Concessions
Brisa Parent
6Debt reduction throughout the year
BCR financing
2010 cost 9M11 cost 2011E Cost
Bonds 1 157 1 224 1 210
Securitization 158 159 79
EIB 772 757 734
MLT bank debt 246 105 301
ST bank debt 251 273 76
Total 2 584 3.39% 2 518 3.69% 2 401 4.09%
Cash 169 240 136
Net debt 2 415 2 278 2 265
BCR debt profile
BCR net debt to decrease by c. 150m during 2011
Strong cash flow generation in a very challenging macro environment
7
BCR financing
The impact on the annual interest expense of a discrete 1% interest rate increase would be close to €11.5M (however, such increase in interest rate would positively impact interest income of the parent Co.)
Benefiting from the interest rate decrease
BCR debt structure (2011E)
Debt by Instrument
50%
3%
31%
13%3%
Bonds
Securitization
EIB
MLT bank debt
ST bank debt
Interest Rate Mix
44%
56%
Fixed
Variable
8
Relevant refinancing events only in 2013 and 2016
BCR financing
EIB loans to smoothly amortise over the period to December 2030
Long maturities
Debt has an average maturity of 5 Years
M/L term debt amortization schedule
€0m
€100m
€200m
€300m
€400m
€500m
€600m
€700m
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
€500M Eurobond €600M Eurobond
€80M per year from
Securitization plus two 2012 bonds (110m€)
9
BCR credit profile
… BCR's rating has been downgraded to Baa3, the top end of the range of rating guidance as it currently applies to Portugal, and remains on review for further downgrade pending Moody‘s final conclusion as to whether BCR should have a rating either one or two notches above that of the government of RoP….
… To retain an investment grade credit rating, Moody's would expect BCR to maintain an ability to survive closure of the debt markets to Portuguese borrowers for a period of at least two years under a downside stress scenario incorporating lower revenues and higherdebt costs….
Moody’s Press Release – July 8th, 2011
Moody’s links BCR’s rating to the sovereign
Moody’s press release on BCR
10
BCR credit profile
Fitch’s press release on BCR
… The RWN reflects the continuing uncertainty regarding Portugal's economy ('BBB-'/RWN/'F3') and the knock-on effect that this might have on BCR's business prospects…
… Since April, BCR has taken measures to improve its liquidity profile. It has replaced a credit line with one of the downgraded Portuguese banks with one extended by a higher-rated international bank. Furthermore, it has extended several of its other lines, negotiated new lines, and used free cash flow generated to repay short-term debt. Although Fitch is still awaiting further information and has not yet completed its analysis of the company's liquidity profile, it considers the company's focus on improving its liquidity profile over the next two years as a positive development…
... However, both BCR and the Portuguese sovereign share a common important rating determinant, namely the state of the domestic economy. Fitch considers that continued deterioration of economic conditions in Portugal could have a prolonged impact on the economic performance of the company's Brisa toll road concession. Should a further downgrade to the Portuguese sovereign rating imply such deterioration, BCR's rating may be subject to a further downgrade...
Efforts to improve liquidity recognized by Fitch
Fitch Press Release – September 27th 2011
11Successful liquidity reinforcement
BCR liquidity
2Q11: negotiated and refinanced short term lines (€100m)– BCR extended 2 financing facilities in a total of €50m and negotiated a new one
of €50m, for a total of €100m.
– Lines held with international long-term relationship banks
3Q11: issued a €50m floating rate bond with an international bank
4Q11: Renewed and extended €600m of its committed bank facilities– BCR extended 4 financing facilities in a total of €600m until Oct/14
– Acceptable cost considering the current market environment
- spreads start at 400 and may go up to 575 bps depending on the year of utilization and the facility used
- assuming all lines are used until Oct/14, average spread will be 475 bps
– Lines held with long-term relationship banks, mostly international
12
BCR medium term redemptions and cash sources
BCR has enough funds and facilities to meet its obligations- €240m of cash (as of 3Q11)- €700m of committed bank lines- €400m of cash flow1 generated in 2012 and 2013
BCR has time and flexibility to implement efficient long term financing alternatives
(1) (EBITDA – CAPEX – Interest expenses)
BCR liquidity
BCR debt redemption (Euro million)
Refinancing risk has been addressed
2012 2013 2014 2015EIB 39 39 39 39
Securitization 80 0 0 0
Floater 2012 50 0 0 0
Bond 2012 63 0 0 0
Bond 2013 0 500 0 0
Total redemption 232 539 39 39
13
Cash flow overview
Generating per year over €200m of cash flow after interest
BCR credit profile
BCR generates strong cash flowmillion euros 9M10 9M11 %Operating Revenues 397.3 390.9 -1.6%Operating Costs 106.0 96.2 -9.0%EBITDA 291.3 294.8 +1.2%EBITDA Margin 73.3% 75.4% +2.1 p.p.
Depreciation & Provision 113.8 121.8 +7.0%
EBIT 177.5 173.0 -2.5%Net financials -70.7 -77.1 +9.1%
Net Income 78.7 67.9 -13.7%
CAPEX 55.7 53.6 -3.7%“EBITDA – CAPEX” 235.6 241.2 +2.3%Int. Expenses 66.1 65.4 -1.1%EBITDA – CAPEX – Int. Expenses 169.5 175.8 +3.7%
14
Rating wrap-up
BCR credit profile
Sovereign risk still the main concern
Three main drivers for rating evolution
Liquidity: BCR has reinforced its liquidity position by actively extending itscredit facilities
- BCR currently has €700m of committed bank lines
- Drawn: ~€377m (no substantial increase is expected until September 2013)
- Undrawn : ~€323m
Cash flow: BCR maintains solid cash flow generation- €400m of cash flow estimated to be generated in 2012 and 2013
- CTA (Common Terms Agreement) Credit Metrics impose BCR a Net Debt to EBITDAbelow 6.5x in 2011
- YE 2011 estimated ratio to stand at about 6.0x
Sovereign risk: even though BCR maintains credit ratings above the sovereign, it may be affected should any further sovereign downgrades occur
15
BCR is prepared to overcome a challenging environment
BCR credit profile
Financial structure provides ample protection for creditors
Liquidity position has been reinforced
Adequate funds and facilities to meet all obligations
Time and flexibility to implement efficient long term financing alternatives
Strong cash flow generation
Dividend payments (2012-2013) will be conditioned to securing a medium/long term financing that addresses the 2013 bond redemption
Looking ahead
Debt, liquidity & financingBCR
Other Motorway concessions
Brisa Parent
17
Concessions 9M11 cost 2011E cost
Brisal 519 4.86% 517 4.92%
Atlântico (50%) 171 4.48% 165 4.53%
NWP 219 6.35% 217 6.35%
Consolidated debt 909 5.16% 917 5.19%
Consolidated Cash 62 59
Consolidated net debt 847 5.16% 858 5.19%
Fully funded project finance (non-recourse) concessions
Other non-recourse consolidated debt
Fixed 61%
Floating 39%
€million
18
Other concessions 2011: Atlântico
Cash flow positive
(50% ownership, proportional consolidation)All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)Loans Term loan Subordinated loan Standby EIB
Amount outstanding(100%) 111 M€ 48 M€ 13 M€ 158 M€
Interest rate 6 month euribor+ 1.5%
6 month euribor+ 5%
1 month euribor+ 2,5% fixed (4.76%)
Maturity 2017 2018 2019 2021
M/L term debt amortization schedule
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
19
Other concessions 2011: Brisal
Brisa no longer has accounting exposure to Brisal
(70% ownership, full consolidation)
M/L term debt amortization schedule
All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)
Loans Term loan EIB
Amount outstanding 254 M€ 264 M€
Interest rate 6 month euribor + 1.2% 5.05% (fixed rate)
Maturity 2029 2031
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
20
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Other concessions 2011: Douro Litoral
Large commitments in coming years
(45% ownership, equity consolidation1)
M/L term debt amortization schedule
(1) Ownership will increase to 100% during next year(2) Guaranteed by Brisa(3) To be replaced by shareholder’s equity contributions on January 2012
All financing is in place (non-recourse debt plus guaranteed loan)
Loans Term loan A Term loan B2 Equity Loan3 EIB
Amount outstanding 339 M€ 120 M€ 285 M€ 350 M€
Interest rate Fixed (5.87%) Fixed (4.95%) 1M Euribor + 0.5% Fixed (5.87%)
Maturity 2032 2016 2012 2032
Equity loan
Term Loan B
21
Douro consolidation and impairment
Douro will be consolidated andan impairment will be registered
Douro accounting impacts
Consolidation:
– It is expected that, during 2012, Brisa will own 100% of Douro as a result of the put option being exercised and all the necessary approvals being obtained. Brisa will thus consolidate 100% of Douro
Impairment:
– Recent traffic figures suggest that Douro traffic will be well below the base case (due to low GDP and no AE Centro induced traffic). Because of that, an impairment will be registered in the 2011 accounts (following a similar procedure to Brisal in precedent years)
– At this stage, since Douro has been fully opened to traffic last month, we are still evaluating the traffic evolution and have not determined the appropriate sizing for the impairment
22
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Other concessions 2011: Baixo Tejo
Availability income; residual traffic risk
(30% ownership, equity consolidation)
M/L term debt amortization schedule
All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)-
* To be replaced by shareholder’s equity contributions on 2013
Loans Term loan Equity Loan*
Amount outstanding 201 M€ 51 M€
Interest rate Fixed (4.11%) Fixed (3.05%)
Maturity 2022 2013
Equity loan
23
Other concessions 2011: Litoral Oeste
(15% ownership, equity consolidation)
M/L term debt amortization schedule
Loans Term Loan
Amount outstanding 320 M€
Interest rate Fixed (6.63%)
Maturity 2022
All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)
Availability income; residual traffic risk
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
24
Other concessions 2011: NWPY
Financing contracted until 2017; refinancing is still 6 years away
All financing is obtained (non-recourse debt)
(100% ownership, full consolidation)
M/L term debt amortization schedule
Loans Term loan A Term loan B
Amount Outstanding USD 249 M USD 55 M
Interest rate Fixed (6.35%) Fixed (6.35%)
Maturity 2017 2017
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Debt, Liquidity & FinancingBCR
Other Motorway Concessions
Brisa Parent
26
Funding
Brisa Parent is funded through dividends and portfolio divestments
Brisa Parent
Brisa has no debt at the parent Co. level– The parent Co. has no need to access funding markets at this time
as such, Brisa parent Co. is not rated
The company is funded through dividends received from subsidiaries and divestments in portfolio assets
For the next 2 years BCR will not pay any dividend unless it refinances the 2013 bond
– Management is focused on ensuring a strong liquidity position for BCR
The parent Co. will receive dividends from other assets (around €20m over the next 2 years)
– Via Verde– Controlauto– Brisa O&M– Other service companies
Brisa parent Co. does not generate operational deficits (EBITDA>0)
27
Brisa parent cash position
Strong cash position at parent Co. (€870m)
Brisa Parent
Cash reserve
– Brisa parent co’s cash reserves amount to around 750 million as of October 30th
Treasury stock
– Brisa presently owns 47.1 million treasury shares, which represent around 7,9% of its total share capital
– This treasury stock position is worth (based on a share price of 2.5) around 120 million €
28
Equity commitments (2011-2015)
Brisa has cash reserves to meet these commitments
Brisa Parent
Project Stake Until YE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
Baixo Tejo1 30% 0.9 1.7 15.2 0.0 0.0 17.8
Douro Litoral1 100% 1.5 285.0 0.0 0.0 120.02 407
Litoral Oeste1 15% 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 4.4
Brisal 70% 10.9 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3
Total 14.9 294.7 16.4 0.0 120.0 446.0
(1) Does not include stand by equity (€1.5m, €1m and €58.4m, respectively)(2) Not strictly an equity commitment; represents a Term Loan guaranteed by Brisa
29
Overview
Stable dividend policyEquity commitments assured
Brisa Parent Co has plenty of resources to face its equity commitments and dividends (2012-2013)
Brisa Parent
€750m
€120m€20m €310m
€330m
€250m
Cash TreasuryShares
Dividend Inflowfrom
Subsidiaries
EquityCommitmments
DividendOutflow
RemainingCash/Cash
Eq's
30
Key messages
Strong and resilient financial position
Wrap-up
Adequate financial resources to satisfy both creditors and shareholders
– Cash flow robustness
– Solid cash position even if BCR does not distribute dividends
BCR has assured liquidity for the medium term– Reinforcement of credit facilities
– Refinancing risk mitigated
Brisa will continue to analyze varied financing alternatives– BCR has the time and flexibility to look for long term financing solutions
Daniel Amaral
Growth & Diversification
2
Portfolio objectives
Growth & Diversification
Value creation
Growth
Diversification Priority on businesses with a client-base mainly outside Portugal
Focus on risk mitigation
First-level objective
Optimize current business line
New businesses to potentiateexisting portfolio profitability
Second-level objectives
Keeping the capacity to invest
Careful allocation of capital
3
Portfolio objectives
A more demanding approach to new investments
The methodology by which Brisa analyzes and decides upon its investment opportunities was significantly improved
– Introduction of more rigid criteria over the return/value and risk metrics
– Standardization of analysis across projects and more accurate value and risk measures
– New investments to be decided under a portfolio approach and never on a standalone basis
– Capital injection requirements to be further scrutinized within the overall portfolio needs – same principle to apply to divestment decisions
– Exit assumptions to be introduced
Efficient Portfolio Management
01International expansion: Full fledge O&M services
02Business diversification: ANA privatization
Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution
Growth & Diversification
01International expansion: Full fledge O&M services
02Business diversification: ANA privatization
Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution
Growth & Diversification
6
Description
Integrated O&M provider:
Classic O&M
Tolls collection
ETC management
Mobility and Congestion Management
Clients Base
Concession holders willing to maximize value through an allocation of the O&M effort to a third party as a service provider
Public bodies looking to outsource road operations for efficiency and/or innovation reasons
International O&M services
Brisa is developing a full-fledge O&M platformAs a “business per se” including ETC and technology services
Business model where Brisa can add value
7
Where toBrisa should develop proactively the full-fledge O&Mbusiness in two priority markets (India and USA)
Brisa will continue to screen new markets in order to identify other potential opportunities (Turkey)
Focus
A transformational change to the way Brisa does business
Leverage on Brisa recognized competences on O&M
Potentiate portfolio value
Capital light approach
International O&M services
8
Indian market
Feedback Brisa Highways is a joint-venture between Brisa and Feedback to provide O&M services to Indian concessionaires
FBH has won its first project, Bandra Worli Sealink, through its commercial brand Ezeeway
Project still on its startup process with enhanced focus on Business development
Local organization in place with strong ability to demonstrate capacity to deliver
Feedback Brisa Highways
9
US market
US Federal Government is reducing its role in funding highway infrastructures
A number of identified states are well below the average on Miles of Freeways
Using a private sector O&M operator has been tested by some DOTs
Screening analysis
Objective
Establish a partnership with a US partner under a top-down approach - preference for someone with a national presence
Leverage on NWP experience
Focus on the State of Colorado to enhance value creation for NWP
10
In tandem with the O&M effort Brisa will also expand its worldwide presence through consultancy services focused on mobility solutions
Development to be undertaken through Brisa’s Dutch joint-venture BNV
BNV can serve as “market-insight generator” for future O&M opportunities
BNV has currently 2 mobility projects in The Netherlands and 1 O&M consultancy project in Turkey
– Project SpitsScoren in Rotterdam
– Project Spitsvrij in Utrecht
– Gebze-Izmir O&M consultancy services
Consultancy services
BNV
Another market entry approach
01International diversification: Full fledge O&M services
02Business diversification: ANA privatization
Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution
Growth & Diversification
12
Airports vs. Toll roads
Airport traffic is exposed to a wide range of destinations, being therefore less dependent, when compared to motorways, to the domestic GDP where the infrastructure is based
Traffic
Business Model
RegulationMore demanding regulation. The regulator sets a target return on capital and fix a maximum tariff per passenger
Airports present a diversified business model approach with a lower sensitivity to fluctuations on demand
Similar profile in terms of cash conversion (both capital intensive)
Similar but different
13
100% 70%
Overview of ANA, airport operator
Group Companies
ANA’s Airports
Lisbon Porto Faro P. Delgada S. Maria Horta Flores
Mainland Azores
Beja
A total of seven airports, three in mainland Portugal and four in the Azores islands. Total turnover in 2010: €339m
Portway, provider of handling services. Total turnover in 2010: €51m
ANAM, concessionaire of the two airports in Madeira island. Total turnover in 2010: €38m
ANA’s portfolio
(Full Consolidation) (Full Consolidation)
Funchal
P. Santo
14
ANA’s 2005-10 CAGR:– Passengers 5.0% (28.3m1)
– Turnover 8.3% (€406.0m1)
– EBITDA 10.0% (€164.2m1)
– EBITDA margin (2010) 40.4%
– Net Debt/EBITDA (2010) 3.9x (net debt: €637m)
Faro
Lisbon
Porto
Passenger Mix in 2010 (Lisbon)
Growing business
Overview of ANA, airport operator
Revenue breakdown 2010
ANA selected indicators
12010 figures
15
A very attractive asset
Sizeable airport with significant room for value creation
Competitive Positioning– Attractive size with large catchment area and natural
monopoly characteristics
Geographical competitive advantage– Potential to develop a secondary hub, mainly to
Africa and South America
Passenger Mix– High origin and destination base with balanced
tourism/business mix
Revenue Mix– Potential to increase exposure to non-aeronautical activities
Overview of ANA, airport operator
16
A major growth opportunity for Brisa
Brisa perceived to be the logical partner for a significant number of investors
ANA privatization
Very limited number of domestic players with financial capacity to invest
Three main processes were launched in the European airport market: – Privatization of French regional airports– Privatization of Spanish airports (Barcelona + Madrid)
– Disposal of the Hochtief AirPort
One unique opportunity for someone with expertise on managing infrastructure assets in Portugal
The only real growth infrastructure opportunity for Portugal in the coming years
Limited competition
Asset in Portugal but less exposed to Portugal
Wrap-up
Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution
Growth & Diversification
18
Wrap-up
International O&M services - leveraging Brisa’s O&M core skills for international growth
– Brisa will develop a full-fledge O&M platform as a “business line per se”. Consultancy services to be developed as a “market-insight generator”
– Brisa will focus the proactive development of its O&M business in India and USA, without losing sight of Turkey
ANA privatization - the obvious business diversification move in Portugal
Unique competitive position
Possible access to an additional O&M contract in our own natural market
Growth and diversification perfect fit with portfolio objectives
Two drivers for portfolio evolution
Growth under strict rules when implying new capital allocation
Final remarksMaintaining strong free cash flowVasco de Mello
2
Final remarks
Yes, we are living tough times and traffic is under pressure
But, Brisa is delivering significant expenditure cuts that balance lower revenues and higher financial costs
Brisa has been successfully managing OPEX and CAPEXand will keep on doing so
Focus on cash flow
3
By 2014 annual expenditures (CAPEX and OPEX) will be lower by €45m
Brisa will deliver a significant expenditure performance already in 2012, with a combined reduction of €35m
– €5m in OPEX, on top of an estimated €10m COGS reduction due to lower tolling equipment sales
– €30m in CAPEX vs. previous guidance (€20m lower than YE2011 estimate)
Brisa will be maintaining a strong free cash flow in line with previous years
Final remarks
4
Yes, despite the strong cash flow generation at BCRBrisa has non performing assets (Douro & Brisal)
But our equity commitments are being fulfilled and our accounts have and will reflect the impairment charges
There is upside in front of us and management is focused on extracting value from the investments through balanced negotiations
Focus on cash flow generation and extracting value from the portfolio
Final remarks
5
Yes, our business is a geared one and debt markets are challenging for Portuguese Corporates
But Brisa, has enough funds and facilities to meet its obligations
– Strong cash position
– Liquidity issues have been dealt, as BCR has been accessing medium term bank facilities
– Cost of debt is relatively low and manageable
Medium term sound liquidity position
Final remarks
6
Yes, there is, and there will be on the coming years, little or no growth in Portugal
But Brisa is diversifying internationally, through light capital O&M services, opening options for future growth
Brisa continues to follow ANA privatization, diversifying domestically into other transport infrastructures
– ANA is a growing asset that, although located in Portugal, enjoys a significant international exposure
ANA has the potential to become a major opportunity in the short term
Final remarks
7
Brisa has and will be maintaining a strong free cash flow generation
Brisa has its medium term liquidity needs addressed
So Brisa will maintain its dividend of 31 cents per share
No decision has been taken on Treasury Stock, which should reach 10% by year end 2011
Shareholder remuneration unchanged
Final remarks
8
Total traffic down 5%– Traffic without former shadow tolls impact down 6%
Tariffs up 4%
Toll revenues down 1%
OPEX down 3%, on top of a €10m decrease due to lower tolling equipment sales
CAPEX down €30m vs. previous guidance – €20m lower than YE2011 estimate
Main targets for 2012
Maintaining strong free cash flow generation
Final remarks