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Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

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Page 1: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid
Page 2: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid
Page 3: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid
Page 4: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

PORTUGUESE ECONOMYPORTUGUESE ECONOMY EVOLUTION

A ó i d SAntónio de Sousa

NOVEMBER 2011

Page 5: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

AGENDA

Portuguese economy evolution

Exports pattern

Degree of opennessg p

Internal market

Consequences

The future

Summary

NOVEMBER 2011

Summary

Page 6: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

AGENDA

Portuguese economy evolution

Exports pattern

Degree of opennessg p

Internal market

Consequences

The future

Summary

NOVEMBER 2011

Summary

Page 7: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Portuguese economy evolution: productive structure of exports

Structure of Portuguese merchandise exports

5ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Statistics Portugal

Page 8: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

But it is still relatively closed

Degree of openness (volume of imports and exports as a percentage of GDP*)

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product

6ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Banco de Portugal, Bank of Greece, ECB, Eurostat, National Bank of Belgium, Statistics Portugal

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.

Page 9: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

AGENDA

Trends in Portuguese economy

Exports pattern

Degree of opennessg p

Internal market

Consequences

The future

Summary

NOVEMBER 2011

Summary

Page 10: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Internal market went sky high as households’ consumption increased…

Nominal private consumption

8ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Ameco, Statistics Portugal

Page 11: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

… as well as their respective debt,

Household indebtedness

∆ = 94 p.p.

9ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Ameco, ECB, Statistics Portugal

Page 12: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

… and government expenses.

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product

10ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Portugal

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.

Page 13: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

AGENDA

Trends in Portuguese economy

Exports pattern

Degree of opennessg p

Internal market

Consequences

The future

Summary

NOVEMBER 2011

Summary

Page 14: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Trade balance deficits

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product

12ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Banco de Portugal, Statistics Portugal

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.

Page 15: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

External debt increase in volume and relative to GDP

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product

13ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Banco de Portugal, Eurostat

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.

Page 16: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Budget deficit

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product

14ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Eurostat, IMF

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.

Page 17: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Public debt

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product

15ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Eurostat

* Nominal Gross Domestic Product.

Page 18: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

AGENDA

Trends in Portuguese economy

Exports pattern

Degree of opennessg p

Internal market

Consequences

The future

Summary

NOVEMBER 2011

Summary

Page 19: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

The future

Restraining private consumption

Restraining public consumption and irrelevant public Restraining public consumption and irrelevant public consumption

Overcome structural bottlenecks Overcome structural bottlenecks

In order to:D Decrease taxes

State flexibility and size New credibilityNew credibility Additional private investment (national and international)

17ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Page 20: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

AGENDA

Trends in Portuguese economy

Exports pattern

Degree of opennessg p

Internal market

Consequences

The future

Summary

NOVEMBER 2011

Summary

Page 21: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Good news

Balance of trade Projections of total public expenses as a percentage of GDP

Objectives of public spending

Economic and social public investment analysisa a ys s

Source: Ministry of Finance

19ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Page 22: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Constraints

Unemployment

20ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Ameco, Statistics Portugal

Page 23: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Constraints

Disposable Income

21ANTÓNIO DE SOUSA NOVEMBER 2011

Source: Ameco, Statistics Portugal

Page 24: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

PORTUGUESE ECONOMYPORTUGUESE ECONOMY EVOLUTION

A ó i d SAntónio de Sousa

NOVEMBER 2011

Page 25: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

One Year LaterA Resilient Business Model

Vasco de Mello

Page 26: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

2

One year later

Deep changes on financial markets

Deep changes on the economy

Deep changes on the political arena

Very significant changes in our business environment over the last 12 monthsMost of them not totally expected

Brisa maintained a strong cash flow generation

Page 27: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Deep changes

on financial markets

Page 28: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

4

Deep changes on financial markets

Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3Ba1Ba2Ba2

Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2

Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2

Dec - 10 Feb - 11 Mar - 11 Apr - 11

Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2

Jul - 11

Aa2Aa3A1A2A3Baa1Baa2Baa3 Ba1Ba2

Portugal downgraded to non investment grade (7 levels down)Brisa two notches above the Republic

Moody's Rating on Portugal and BCR

BCR: under review

Investmentgrade

Sub-investmentgrade

Page 29: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

5

AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-

AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-

AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-

Dec - 10 Jan - 11 Feb - 11

AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-

Mar - 11

Credit WatchNegative

AAAA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-

Apr - 11

Fitch's Rating on Portugal and BCR

Portugal from A+ to BBB- (5 levels down)Brisa two notches above the Republic

Deep changes on financial markets

Investmentgrade

Sub-investmentgrade

Page 30: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

6

Deep changes on financial markets

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Jan‐09

Mar‐09

May‐09

Jul‐0

9

Sep‐09

Nov

‐09

Jan‐10

Mar‐10

May‐10

Jul‐1

0

Sep‐10

Nov

‐10

Jan‐11

Mar‐11

May‐11

Jul‐1

1

Sep‐11

Portugal Spain Greece Germany

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan‐09

Mar‐09

May‐09

Jul‐0

9

Sep‐09

Nov

‐09

Jan‐10

Mar‐10

May‐10

Jul‐1

0

Sep‐10

Nov

‐10

Jan‐11

Mar‐11

May‐11

Jul‐1

1

Sep‐11

Portugal Spain Greece Germany

Unseen increase of credit spreads

Yields on 10y Portuguese Bonds soar from 6% to 11%1

Yields on Brisa Bonds followed same trend, from 3% to 10%1

Brisa bond yields soar from 3% to 10%

Sovereign yields 10y (2009-2011) Sovereign CDS’s (2009-2011)(basis points)

1 17th November quotes, source Bloomberg

Page 31: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

7

Brisa share and Portugal risk

Too much correlation between Portuguese risk and Brisa share performance

Unseen decrease in Brisa’s share price linked to perceived sovereign risk

Deep changes on financial markets

€5.5€5.0€4.5€4.0€3.5€3.0€2.5€2.0€1.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0Jan Mar May Jul Sep

1000/CDS Portugal 5yr Brisa

Page 32: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

8

Deep changes on financial markets

Too high risk-free rates

– Using Brisa or Portuguese bond yields as risk-free rates is conceptually wrong

– Both rates are not risk-free

– Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds

– Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

– BCR has refinanced €600m at a spread of 475 bps well bellow Brisa bond yields of around 800 bps

Too much liquidity concerns

– BCR has successfully refinanced and has no liquidity issue until 2014

Even though Rating agencies and creditorsclearly recognize that Brisa risk is lower

Excessive risk put on Brisa valuations

Page 33: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Deep changes on

macro environment

Page 34: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

10

Deep changes on macro environment

Quarterly Portuguese GDP has been declining

Portuguese GDP

From growth to a recession in less than a year

Last November the consensus was that Portuguese GDP would be flat in 2011, now the estimate points to a decline of around 1.6%

GDP quarter on quarter (yoy change)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

1Q 2Q 3Q

2010

2011

1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1%

-0.5%-0.9%

-1.7%

Page 35: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

11

Deep changes on macro environment

On average fuel prices increase +18% YTD on top of an increase of 14% in 2010

Fuel Prices at Portuguese gas pumps

In spite of lower economic growth fuel prices had a significant increase

Gasoline (price at the pump – eur./liter) Diesel (price at the pump – eur./liter)

13%

Q1

1.65

1.60

1.55

1.50

1.45

1.40

1.35

1.30

13%

Q2

13%

Q3 Q4

― 2010― 2011

24% 19% 17%

Q1

1.50

1.40

1.30

1.20

1.10

1.0

0.9Q2 Q3 Q4

― 2010― 2011

Page 36: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

12

Deep changes on macro environment

VAT increase from 21% to 23%1

VAT product categorization shifted upwards

Increase IRS tax

Special tax on private income

– Half of December 2011 extra pay reverts to the State

5% cut on public wages

Available income strongly affected

One year ago, the IMF intervention and the heavy 1st austerity package were unexpected

1Increase from 1 January 2011 onwards

Page 37: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

13

Deep changes on macro environment

Quarterly Like for like traffic on BCR has been declining

Recession + fuel prices + less available income= traffic decrease

Direct impact on toll revenues

BCR traffic quarter on quarter (yoy change)

In February our forecast for 2011 was a negative LfL of -2% (in line with 4Q10). Now our forecast is between -6% to -7%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q2010 2011

-1.6%-0.5%

-2.0% -2.3%

-5.8%

-8.0%

0.0%

Page 38: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Deep changes on

the political arena

Page 39: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

15

Deep changes on the political arena

Former Government loses mandate and early elections are called (June 2011)

Whilst before Portugal had a minority government now a majority rules the Country

The previous ruling party, now the main opposition party, signed the EU / IMF memorandum

85% of parliament signed the new austerity package

New Government, strong majority

The good news, a strong politicalcommitment to reform

Page 40: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

16

Deep changes on the political arena

Public workers lose extra 1/7 of yearly income

Private sector workers suffer higher IRS charges

VAT product categorization is shifted upwards, once again

Steep price increase on government services and fixed tariffs

Increase in corporate tax

Privatization of several state assets

Short term negative impact, but positive on the medium term

New package of austerity measures for 2012

Page 41: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

17

Deep changes on the political arena

Higher inflation linked tariff increase

Revision of all PPPs, starting with EP subconcessions

All the new infrastructure projects called off or suspended

– ELOS high speed rail project on hold

Consolidation of the user payer system, particularly with tolls in former shadow tolls

ANA airport operator privatization

Track record of strong rule of law and low regulatory risk

More opportunities than threats

Austerity measures impact on Brisa

Page 42: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

What have we done to cope

with adverse changes?

Page 43: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

19

What have we done?

Constantly accessing bank facilities

– June: BCR refinanced and extended €100m

– September: BCR issued a €50m floating rate bond

– November: BCR renewed and extended medium term financing in a total of €600m

Low cost in current context

Average spreads of 475 b.p.

Liquidity lines held mostly with long-term relationship international banks

Sound liquidity position until 2014

Reinforce liquidity

Page 44: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

20

What have we done?

International projects scaled down

– Focus on O&M services, light capital projects

Reduced expenditures to balance lower toll revenues

Act on 2011

– CAPEX reduction of €15m vs. initial guidance

– OPEX reduction of €5m vs. 2010 (excluding VV & tolling equipment sales)

Launch of new efficiency projects

2011 cash flow (EBITDA - CAPEX) In line with previous year

Adjust new projects

Preserve cash flow

Page 45: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Brisa in 2011 was able to

react to a very adverse

business environment and

maintained a strong cash flow generation

proving again a very resilient business

Page 46: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

New Efficiency Measures

António Nunes de Sousa

Page 47: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

2

New efficiency measures

Brisa has kept EBITDA margins due to increased efficiency, despite traffic declines

Focus on efficiency as a value driver

Total traffic growth EBITDA margin

2007 +3,2% 71,1%

2008 -4,5% 70,2%

2009 -2.0% 71,2%

2010 -2.9% 71,8%

Page 48: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

3

New efficiency measures

Brisa has been able to deliver significant cost reduction.

Even though network has been expanding

Consolidated LfL annual cost reduction

-7%

-3% -3%

2009 2010 2011

Page 49: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

4

13061432

1496 15071583

New efficiency measures

O&M cost per operated km has decreased significantly in the last 5 years

Brisa is one of the most efficient national road networks in the world

CAGR-13%

km in operation

Cost per km

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Page 50: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

Toll automationBEG downsize CAPEX innovation

New Efficiency Projects

Page 51: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

New Efficiency Projects

Toll automationBEG downsize CAPEX innovation

Page 52: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

7

New efficiency projects

Up until last year BCR only had 2 toll collecting systems:

– Via Verde, non stop electronic toll collection

– Manual toll collection

Tolling automation

Increase automation through new system

Since August 2010, a 3rd system was introduced:

- Etoll machines, automatic cash and card tolling machines in the Toll Plazas

Page 53: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

8

Target(Nov/10)

Results (YE2011)

Toll OperatorsReduction (1) 1/4 1/3

Severance Pay 6m € 7m €

Savings 5.5m € 8.5m €

Extra Maintenance 2.0m € 2.1m€

Net Savings (2) 3.5m € 6.4m€

New efficiency projects

Strong delivery well above initial forecast

(1) Brisa employees and manpower(2) Personnel costs and third parties

Tolling automationEtoll project

249

€12.6 m

# machines

CAPEX

In line with estimates

Project development

Page 54: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

9

11%

65%24%

New efficiency projects

Tolling automationEtoll cash machines

Automation rate increased 14 p.p. in just over one year

Toll transactions breakdown

38% 62%

Before (June 2010) After (Sept, 2011)

Manual toll collectionManual E-tollVia Verde

Total Automation Rate of 76%

Page 55: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

10

New efficiency projects

100% Etoll

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

32

46

8

7

100% Etoll (Night)

Etoll + OP.

No EtollOperation

93 Toll Plazas

Types of toll plazas

Low Intensity Traffic

Low Intensity Traffic (Night)

High Intensity Traffic

Special Cases

Full automation more straightforward on low intensity traffic

Page 56: Capa [Modo de Compatibilidade] - CMVMweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/FR36378.pdf · – Portugal debt is junior to IMF / EU funds – Brisa bonds trade infrequently and are illiquid

11

Drivers for higher automationShadow Tolls conversion to real tolls

New efficiency projects

Real tolls were introduced on 3 former shadow tolls in October of 2010.

They are 100% automated, drivers must have a tag. The alternative (photo tolling) requires extra fees, is more bureaucratic and it does not allow discounts for locals.

Previous shadow toll conversions have led to a real increase in Via Verde usage in those areas, from 58% to 70% of transactions

Shortly the remaining 4 shadow tolls will also be converted to real tolls, thus increasing Via Verde penetration rate.

New drivers will join Via Verde

Grande Porto

Costa da Prata

Norte Litoral

Beira Interior

Interior Norte

Algarve

Beira Alta

Former shadow tollsRemaining shadow tolls

Oporto

Lisbon

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12

New efficiency projects

In the coming two years, new motorways will be opening in Portugal (Brisa & non Brisa)

New drivers will join Via Verde

992013Baixo Alentejo

Fully open Total km

Baixo Tejo 2012 70

Transmontana 2012 133

Túnel do Marão 2012 26

Litoral Oeste 2012 109

Pinhal Interior 2013 239

Drivers for higher automationNew EP subconcessions

They will be 100% automatized, thus increasing Via Verde penetration rate

Pinhal I.

Litoral Oeste

Baixo Tejo

Baixo Alentejo

Transmontana

Túnel do Marão

Oporto

Lisbon

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13

New efficiency projects

Online distribution of Via Verde tags

Online customer relationship and services (invoicing, license plate and personal data changes, split billing etc.)

New online initiatives

Drivers for higher automationVia Verde sales & marketing

Via Verde tags/contractsAverage monthly new clients (thousands)

Total clients (millions)

2.32.5

2.9

2009 2010 9M11

8.3

21.1

33.6

2009 2010 9M11

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14

New efficiency projects

This second round can be launched when a high automation rate is achieved (around 90%, probably by 2014)

The equipment necessary is already in place – no extra CAPEX required

Since no extra equipment is required, the OPEXregarding maintenance would be stable as well

The only additional costs would be those regarding severance pay

Annual savings of €3m

Drivers for higher automationSecond round of the Etoll program

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15

New efficiency projects

80 to 90 % Automation rate can be reached by 2014

Automationrate

75%

90%

Projects & events

New motorwayopenings

Via VerdeMarketing

Shadow tollsreversion

E-toll

Drivers for higher automation

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New Efficiency Pojects

Toll automationBEG downsize CAPEX innovation

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17

New efficiency measures

Major construction work is concluding:

– Douro Litoral (concluded)

– Baixo Tejo (to be concluded in 2012)

– Litoral Oeste (to be concluded in 2012)

Less construction work (widenings) will be required in the future due to traffic slowdown

Strategic competencies retained for the future

BEG – Ongoing major projects

Construction of new infrastructures is concluding

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18

New efficiency projects

Strategic know-how for Brisa projects(widenings and road maintenance CAPEX)

Safety at site

Works Supervising

Environment

Land Expropriation

Quality Control

Studies and Designs Coordination

Engineering worksand pavements

Labor Safety

Technical Services

BEG – Brisa Engenharia e GestãoProject Management Services

ConstructionSupport Services

Ongoing Support Services

Team of 220 employees (mostly engineers)

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New efficiency measures

Due to the conclusion of construction works, BEG will adjust its cost structure to the expected lower activity

The expenditure cuts, on a total of €8 m, will be implemented in a balanced manner, starting next year

On consolidated accounts, the savings will be in OPEX and CAPEX, since some of the costs are capitalized

The downsize program will imply severance payments

Annual savings of €8 m

BEG – Downsize potential

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New Efficiency Projects

Toll automationBEG downsizeCAPEX innovation

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21

Lower traffic levels =

less widening needs

01

New efficiency measures

CAPEX reductionThere are 2 levels of CAPEX optimization:

Significant lower annual CAPEX

02Changes in construction practices

=new efficiency measures

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New efficiency measures

Brisa launched an internal project in Q1 2011 which has led to significant structural reductions in future CAPEX in both widenings and major repairs

Widenings

– New standards for lane widenings (3 lanes instead of 3 and a half)

– Changes in current technical norms

– Review of projected widenings

Major repairs

– new cost cutting measures and changes in the current technical legislation

Cost savings of 15% on CAPEX

CAPEX innovationChanges in construction practices

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23

Capex Innovation examples

Actual total 2x3 lanes widening: 36,6 – 28 = 8,6m New total 2x3 lanes widening: & 33 – 28 = 5m

Reducing the total length /span of the cross-section Original Highway Cross-Section: 28 m

Actual Widening 2x3 lanes Highway Cross-Section: 36,6 m

New Widening 2x3 lanes Highway Cross-Section: 33 m

Actual

New

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Original Columns and Foundations

New Columns and Foundations

Reducing the investment on demolition of the old bridge, the new road and land acquisition

Maintaining original bridge’s deck

Capex Innovation examples

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Reducing the investment: construction of just the new top-most asphalt layer

Micro-Milling of the old pavement surface

Capex Innovation examples

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All added:significant cash savings

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27

New efficiency measures

Ongoing projects combined with lower CAPEX requirements will provide significant savings

By 2014, annual cash outflow reduction of €45 m versus previous plan

Projects will be implemented gradually

Some projects will require some severance pay

New efficiency projects

€15m€15m

€8m€3m

€4m €45m

TrafficReduction

CAPEXoptimization

BEG downsizing(opex & capex)

Higherautomation

(opex)

ProcessesOptimization &

Synergies

Total

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Brisa PortfolioPedro Rocha e Melo

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2

Brisa portfolio

60%

36%

16%

100%

100%

100%

60%

Update on businesses main issues

BrisaParent Co

* Simplified organizationalchart for illustrative purposes

O&MServices

OtherInfrastructures

Motorway Concessions

50%

70%

30%

15%

45%

100% 100%

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Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste & ElosBrisal & Douro LitoralBCR

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4

Projects may be scaled down but will

not change base case profitability

Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste and ELOS

Network length 68 km (17 tolled)Concession term - 2038 Availability payments - 55% Brisa Equity 18 M€

Network length 112 km (19 tolled)Concession term - 2039 Availability payments - 76% Brisa Equity 14 M€

Network length 165 kmConcession term - 2049 Availability payments – 95%Brisa Equity 20 M€

Government wishes to reduce costs associated with these projects

Projects under development

Project can be scaled down or be

canceled

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Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste & ElosBrisal & Douro LitoralBCR

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6

Brisal

Key characteristics- 1 motorway: A17- Network length: 92 km- Term: 2034 (expected)

Fully open since April 2008- Current traffic (ADT): 6468 vehicles/day- Total debt: €519m (9M 2011)- Project finance, non-recourse

Operational profile

Project is underperforming due to traffic levels

Oporto

Lisbon

A17

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7

Unilateral change on the base case assumptions is a cause for rebalancing request

Concession rebalance compensationwas submitted

Brisal

On the project base case, Costa da Prata free motorway was a traffic inducer to Brisal as part of the same corridor

Traffic decreased significantly, around 30%, since tolls were installed on Costa da Prata, on Oct2010

-30%

Beginning of the toll collection in Costa da Prata concession

AEA – Brisal -- Costa da Prata corridor

A29 Costa da Prata

A17 -Brisal

Oporto

Lisbon

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2009/2010

2010/2011

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8

Oporto

Lisbon

Fully open since October 2011

Douro

A 43- Length: 8 km- Open to traffic: September 2010

A 41- Length: 33 km- Open to traffic: April 2011

A 32- Length: 35 km- Open to traffic: Oct 2011

Key characteristics– 3 motorways A32, A41, A43– Tolled network length 76 km– Term 2034

A32

A43A41

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9

Cost overruns due to imposed corridorare a cause for indemnity claim

Douro

On the final concession agreement there was a possibility for an alternative corridor (A32)

It was under this assumption that the consortium bid for the project

Brisa consortium submitted the alternative corridor (less expensive and higher traffic inducer) which the Grantor rejected and refused to discuss

A claim was submitted this year to the Grantor as a result of the overrun construction costs supported by Brisa

Indemnity claim was submitted

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10

Douro

Douro concession was expected to have free road traffic feeder linked to it – the AE Centro

AE Centro concession would have been completed by 2012

The tender for AE Centro was suspended so Dourowill not be getting its induced traffic, leading now to almost nowhere

AEDL

AE Centro(toll free)

AEDL

AE Centro ?

BAFO assumption Most likely outcome

Concession rebalance compensation to be submitted

Unilateral change on the base case assumptions is a cause for rebalancing request

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11

Brisal & Douro

Brisal & Douro have solid legal cases

Seeking balanced solutions

Going forward

Both concessions had formal negotiation processes with the Grantor which aimed to change to EP sub-concessions (availability payments) and to address compensation claims

Since negotiations were suspended by the former Portuguese Government, Brisal and Douro decided to proceed with formal claims for rebalancing compensation

Final outcome of the compensation claims will be settled through either legal channels or direct negotiations with the Grantor

The rebalancing of the concessions will also involve creditors in order to adapt current project finance, so that an agreed solution is reached among all stakeholders

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Baixo Tejo, Litoral Oeste & ElosBrisal & Douro LitoralBCR

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13

Light vehiclesHeavy vehiclesTotal Growth

% Heavy Vehicles

Traffic Growth

-1,7%5,3%

-1,4%

5,1%

9M2011

Organic traffic growth highly affected by the macroeconomic context and fuel prices

Introduction of real toll collection in Costa da Prata, Grande Porto and Norte Litoralconcessions with significant positive effect

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010

2011

2011 traffic performance is being impacted by different effects…

Organic growthCalendar effectsShadow tollsCompetitionA9 LanslideTotal Growth

Traffic Growth 9M2011

-5.7%-0.6%5.3%

-0.6%0.2%

-1.4%

BCR

Monthly Average Daily Traffic

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66 339

6 870

16 396

24 321

31 673

17 075

5 182

24 71321 586

4 993 5 244

63 036

6 497

15 059

24 91431 575

16 527

4 777

21 50319 635

4 561 4 721

-5,0%

-5,4%-13,0%

A14 A5A10A9A13A12A6A2A4A3A1

2011

2010

… which implied different network dynamics

Real toll in former SCUT’s effect

Macroeconomic degradation associated with less leisure trips (specially in Q3)

CRILconclusion effect

PureCommu-

ting

BCR

2,4%-3,2%-0,3%

-10%-7,8%-8,2% -8,7%-9,0%

Traffic growth per motorway

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15

Organic Traffic Case Studies2005 2009

GDP Fuel Organic Growth

2007

In extreme variation conditions, fuel price affects traffic growth more than GDP

In normal macroeconomic environment, the GDP

growth represents the main traffic growth driver

BCR

0.8%

17.2%

Organic GrowthGDP Fuel

-1.3%

1.9%

3.2% 3.0%

Organic GrowthGDP Fuel

-18,6%

0,5%

-2,5%

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16

2011 – 9M

2011 represents the worst combination from the last 10 years, with

simultaneous steep fuel price increase and negative GDP growth

In 2012 this combination is not foreseen: GDP will decline but fuel prices should stabilize

2011 macro context worse than initially forecasted

BCR

-1,1%

17.7%

Organic GrowthGDP Fuel

-5.7%

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17

Negative GDP growth [-2,5%;-3%]

Worse seasonality (less leasure trips in the summer)

Stable fuel price

Second traffic recovery due to the end of toll exceptions/discounts in Costa daPrata, Grande Porto and Norte Litoral concessions (July 2012)

Year 2012 Forecast

Normal seasonality

Affected seasonality

Traffic expected to decrease around 5%Tariffs will be increased by 4%

BCR

Major Assumptions

=

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18

90

100

110

120

Passenger.km and GDP (2001=100)

GDP

Passenger

Source: EU Transport in Figures 2011, Eurostat

In Portugal, passenger transport (cars+buses+metro+railways) has been growing above GDP

Personal transport continues to increase its market share (85% in 2009) against public transport

Transport services offer expected to be reduced due to financial unsustainability of public companies

In the last 5 years, public transport costs increased 28% (CPI increased 9%)

Another heavy increase in public transport services is expected, while tolls will increase, approximately at CPI

BCR

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Looking forward traffic will continue to grow

Increasing mobility through personal transport growth

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Source: Census 2011 preliminary data, INE

Brisa links the most densely populated and tourist regions, the main ports, airports and the Spanish borders

High quality and time saved at competitive prices create value to client: a strong competitive advantage in route choice alternatives

Urban sprawling will continue, which means greater need for individual transport modes

Although Portuguese population should continue to be stable, internal migration from countryside to littoral will benefit Brisa network

BCR

Population growth from 2001 to 2011

Looking forward traffic will continue to grow

Strategic network location Favorable demographics trends

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20

Despite unfavorable macro context, in the last 5 years Brisa maintained its market share, being as resilient as Portuguese traffic

Portuguese road network is now consolidated: no risk of future competition

Brisa motorways demand consists not only of work trips (average weekday ADT is higher than average weekend traffic), but is also very positively impacted by leisure trips (particularly at summer months and on holidays)

BCR

Looking forward traffic will continue to grow

No further competitionDiversified demand

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

October 5th  November 1st

Impact of holidays in October 2010

Source: Brisa

‐8.0%‐6.0%‐4.0%‐2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9M 2011

Brisa Organic Fuel Sales Volume

Brisa Organic Traffic and Fuel Sales

Source: Direcção Geral de Energia e Geologia; Brisa

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21

Significant Capex reduction due to:

Widening requirements

BCR concession agreement has a natural hedge against traffic reductions since widening requirements are trigged by traffic levelsRecent decreases in traffic imply delays in the short-term and less widenings in the long term Several triggers were concentrated in the last years of the concession (mainly 2X4 widening's)For illustration purposes, a 5% decrease in the base traffic could delay one widening for 3 yearsIn some cases less widenings may imply an increase in resurfacing works, although the cost per km is much lower

BCR

Changes in project procedures & practices (capex innovation)

Implementation of measures related with wideningsand major repairs capex which will produce significant structural reductions

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22

CapexReal terms, annual average amounts, M€

Considers GDP growth above 2% in

the long term(2017-35)*

BCR

CAPEX BCRPrevious Plan

2011-15 2016-35

Growth 65 32

Maintenance 25 25

Equipments 5 8

Total CAPEX 95 65

CAPEX BCRNew Plan

2012-16 2017-35

Growth 35 25

Maintenance 25 20

Equipments 5 5

Total CAPEX 65 50

*GDP growth lower in 1 p.p. implies savings of 10M€

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23

Capex PlanTotal Capex Reduction (base 100)

Traffic effect

Current Plan

A- Project

Base 2010

Mix (type of works)

100

Growth

Maintenance

Equipments

2011

100

2010

Significant CAPEX reduction

BCR

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24

BCR resilient cash flow generation

EBITDA – Capex

Revised EBITDA – Capex expected to grow on average 5% per year until 2016

+5%

2016E2015E2014E2013E2012E2011E2010

BCR

293291

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25

BCR

In 2011, BCR organic traffic has been penalized by an unlikely negative simultaneous combination of steep fuel prices increase and negative GDP growth

However, traffic will grow again above GDP as soon as the Portuguese Economy grows because BCR traffic drivers remain the same:

– Increasing mobility trends– Network strategic location & strong competitive advantages– Favorable demographics– No future competition– Diversified demand

BCR is indeed a resilient business and a strong cash-flow generator: – “EBITDA-Capex” maintained in spite of the negative traffic performance– Future capex reduced in 25% when compared with the previous plan– “EBITDA - Capex” expected to grow, on average, 5% per year until 2016

Wrap up

Strong cash-flow generation

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Financing

João Azevedo Coutinho

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Debt, Liquidity & FinancingBCR

Other Motorway Concessions

Brisa Parent

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3

Overview

Strong and resilient financial position

Financing

Brisa has adequate financial resources to satisfy both creditors and shareholders

BCR has assured liquidity for the medium term

BCR will continue to analyze varied financing alternatives

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4

Brisa

BCR Brisal DouroLitoral

Atlantico Litoral OesteBaixo Tejo Northwest Parkway

BCRStrong financial profile

The main asset, generating about 85% of consolidated EBITDA

Other concessionsAmortising long-term project finance

Funded through project finance, non recourse to Parent Co.

* Simplified organizationalchart for illustrative purposes

All assets are ring-fencedBCR is the main cash provider

Asset overview

Rated Debt Project Finance Project Finance Project Finance Project Finance

Group structure

Other Co’s

Parent Co

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Debt, Liquidity & FinancingBCR

Other Motorway Concessions

Brisa Parent

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6Debt reduction throughout the year

BCR financing

2010 cost 9M11 cost 2011E Cost

Bonds 1 157 1 224 1 210

Securitization 158 159 79

EIB 772 757 734

MLT bank debt 246 105 301

ST bank debt 251 273 76

Total 2 584 3.39% 2 518 3.69% 2 401 4.09%

Cash 169 240 136

Net debt 2 415 2 278 2 265

BCR debt profile

BCR net debt to decrease by c. 150m during 2011

Strong cash flow generation in a very challenging macro environment

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7

BCR financing

The impact on the annual interest expense of a discrete 1% interest rate increase would be close to €11.5M (however, such increase in interest rate would positively impact interest income of the parent Co.)

Benefiting from the interest rate decrease

BCR debt structure (2011E)

Debt by Instrument

50%

3%

31%

13%3%

Bonds

Securitization

EIB

MLT bank debt

ST bank debt

Interest Rate Mix

44%

56%

Fixed

Variable

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Relevant refinancing events only in 2013 and 2016

BCR financing

EIB loans to smoothly amortise over the period to December 2030

Long maturities

Debt has an average maturity of 5 Years

M/L term debt amortization schedule

€0m

€100m

€200m

€300m

€400m

€500m

€600m

€700m

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

€500M Eurobond €600M Eurobond

€80M per year from

Securitization plus two 2012 bonds (110m€)

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BCR credit profile

… BCR's rating has been downgraded to Baa3, the top end of the range of rating guidance as it currently applies to Portugal, and remains on review for further downgrade pending Moody‘s final conclusion as to whether BCR should have a rating either one or two notches above that of the government of RoP….

… To retain an investment grade credit rating, Moody's would expect BCR to maintain an ability to survive closure of the debt markets to Portuguese borrowers for a period of at least two years under a downside stress scenario incorporating lower revenues and higherdebt costs….

Moody’s Press Release – July 8th, 2011

Moody’s links BCR’s rating to the sovereign

Moody’s press release on BCR

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BCR credit profile

Fitch’s press release on BCR

… The RWN reflects the continuing uncertainty regarding Portugal's economy ('BBB-'/RWN/'F3') and the knock-on effect that this might have on BCR's business prospects…

… Since April, BCR has taken measures to improve its liquidity profile. It has replaced a credit line with one of the downgraded Portuguese banks with one extended by a higher-rated international bank. Furthermore, it has extended several of its other lines, negotiated new lines, and used free cash flow generated to repay short-term debt. Although Fitch is still awaiting further information and has not yet completed its analysis of the company's liquidity profile, it considers the company's focus on improving its liquidity profile over the next two years as a positive development…

... However, both BCR and the Portuguese sovereign share a common important rating determinant, namely the state of the domestic economy. Fitch considers that continued deterioration of economic conditions in Portugal could have a prolonged impact on the economic performance of the company's Brisa toll road concession. Should a further downgrade to the Portuguese sovereign rating imply such deterioration, BCR's rating may be subject to a further downgrade...

Efforts to improve liquidity recognized by Fitch

Fitch Press Release – September 27th 2011

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11Successful liquidity reinforcement

BCR liquidity

2Q11: negotiated and refinanced short term lines (€100m)– BCR extended 2 financing facilities in a total of €50m and negotiated a new one

of €50m, for a total of €100m.

– Lines held with international long-term relationship banks

3Q11: issued a €50m floating rate bond with an international bank

4Q11: Renewed and extended €600m of its committed bank facilities– BCR extended 4 financing facilities in a total of €600m until Oct/14

– Acceptable cost considering the current market environment

- spreads start at 400 and may go up to 575 bps depending on the year of utilization and the facility used

- assuming all lines are used until Oct/14, average spread will be 475 bps

– Lines held with long-term relationship banks, mostly international

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BCR medium term redemptions and cash sources

BCR has enough funds and facilities to meet its obligations- €240m of cash (as of 3Q11)- €700m of committed bank lines- €400m of cash flow1 generated in 2012 and 2013

BCR has time and flexibility to implement efficient long term financing alternatives

(1) (EBITDA – CAPEX – Interest expenses)

BCR liquidity

BCR debt redemption (Euro million)

Refinancing risk has been addressed

2012 2013 2014 2015EIB 39 39 39 39

Securitization 80 0 0 0

Floater 2012 50 0 0 0

Bond 2012 63 0 0 0

Bond 2013 0 500 0 0

Total redemption 232 539 39 39

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Cash flow overview

Generating per year over €200m of cash flow after interest

BCR credit profile

BCR generates strong cash flowmillion euros 9M10 9M11 %Operating Revenues 397.3 390.9 -1.6%Operating Costs 106.0 96.2 -9.0%EBITDA 291.3 294.8 +1.2%EBITDA Margin 73.3% 75.4% +2.1 p.p.

Depreciation & Provision 113.8 121.8 +7.0%

EBIT 177.5 173.0 -2.5%Net financials -70.7 -77.1 +9.1%

Net Income 78.7 67.9 -13.7%

CAPEX 55.7 53.6 -3.7%“EBITDA – CAPEX” 235.6 241.2 +2.3%Int. Expenses 66.1 65.4 -1.1%EBITDA – CAPEX – Int. Expenses 169.5 175.8 +3.7%

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Rating wrap-up

BCR credit profile

Sovereign risk still the main concern

Three main drivers for rating evolution

Liquidity: BCR has reinforced its liquidity position by actively extending itscredit facilities

- BCR currently has €700m of committed bank lines

- Drawn: ~€377m (no substantial increase is expected until September 2013)

- Undrawn : ~€323m

Cash flow: BCR maintains solid cash flow generation- €400m of cash flow estimated to be generated in 2012 and 2013

- CTA (Common Terms Agreement) Credit Metrics impose BCR a Net Debt to EBITDAbelow 6.5x in 2011

- YE 2011 estimated ratio to stand at about 6.0x

Sovereign risk: even though BCR maintains credit ratings above the sovereign, it may be affected should any further sovereign downgrades occur

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BCR is prepared to overcome a challenging environment

BCR credit profile

Financial structure provides ample protection for creditors

Liquidity position has been reinforced

Adequate funds and facilities to meet all obligations

Time and flexibility to implement efficient long term financing alternatives

Strong cash flow generation

Dividend payments (2012-2013) will be conditioned to securing a medium/long term financing that addresses the 2013 bond redemption

Looking ahead

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Debt, liquidity & financingBCR

Other Motorway concessions

Brisa Parent

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Concessions 9M11 cost 2011E cost

Brisal 519 4.86% 517 4.92%

Atlântico (50%) 171 4.48% 165 4.53%

NWP 219 6.35% 217 6.35%

Consolidated debt 909 5.16% 917 5.19%

Consolidated Cash 62 59

Consolidated net debt 847 5.16% 858 5.19%

Fully funded project finance (non-recourse) concessions

Other non-recourse consolidated debt

Fixed 61%

Floating 39%

€million

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Other concessions 2011: Atlântico

Cash flow positive

(50% ownership, proportional consolidation)All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)Loans Term loan Subordinated loan Standby EIB

Amount outstanding(100%) 111 M€ 48 M€ 13 M€ 158 M€

Interest rate 6 month euribor+ 1.5%

6 month euribor+ 5%

1 month euribor+ 2,5% fixed (4.76%)

Maturity 2017 2018 2019 2021

M/L term debt amortization schedule

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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Other concessions 2011: Brisal

Brisa no longer has accounting exposure to Brisal

(70% ownership, full consolidation)

M/L term debt amortization schedule

All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)

Loans Term loan EIB

Amount outstanding 254 M€ 264 M€

Interest rate 6 month euribor + 1.2% 5.05% (fixed rate)

Maturity 2029 2031

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

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-

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Other concessions 2011: Douro Litoral

Large commitments in coming years

(45% ownership, equity consolidation1)

M/L term debt amortization schedule

(1) Ownership will increase to 100% during next year(2) Guaranteed by Brisa(3) To be replaced by shareholder’s equity contributions on January 2012

All financing is in place (non-recourse debt plus guaranteed loan)

Loans Term loan A Term loan B2 Equity Loan3 EIB

Amount outstanding 339 M€ 120 M€ 285 M€ 350 M€

Interest rate Fixed (5.87%) Fixed (4.95%) 1M Euribor + 0.5% Fixed (5.87%)

Maturity 2032 2016 2012 2032

Equity loan

Term Loan B

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Douro consolidation and impairment

Douro will be consolidated andan impairment will be registered

Douro accounting impacts

Consolidation:

– It is expected that, during 2012, Brisa will own 100% of Douro as a result of the put option being exercised and all the necessary approvals being obtained. Brisa will thus consolidate 100% of Douro

Impairment:

– Recent traffic figures suggest that Douro traffic will be well below the base case (due to low GDP and no AE Centro induced traffic). Because of that, an impairment will be registered in the 2011 accounts (following a similar procedure to Brisal in precedent years)

– At this stage, since Douro has been fully opened to traffic last month, we are still evaluating the traffic evolution and have not determined the appropriate sizing for the impairment

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-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Other concessions 2011: Baixo Tejo

Availability income; residual traffic risk

(30% ownership, equity consolidation)

M/L term debt amortization schedule

All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)-

* To be replaced by shareholder’s equity contributions on 2013

Loans Term loan Equity Loan*

Amount outstanding 201 M€ 51 M€

Interest rate Fixed (4.11%) Fixed (3.05%)

Maturity 2022 2013

Equity loan

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Other concessions 2011: Litoral Oeste

(15% ownership, equity consolidation)

M/L term debt amortization schedule

Loans Term Loan

Amount outstanding 320 M€

Interest rate Fixed (6.63%)

Maturity 2022

All financing is in place (non-recourse debt)

Availability income; residual traffic risk

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

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Other concessions 2011: NWPY

Financing contracted until 2017; refinancing is still 6 years away

All financing is obtained (non-recourse debt)

(100% ownership, full consolidation)

M/L term debt amortization schedule

Loans Term loan A Term loan B

Amount Outstanding USD 249 M USD 55 M

Interest rate Fixed (6.35%) Fixed (6.35%)

Maturity 2017 2017

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Debt, Liquidity & FinancingBCR

Other Motorway Concessions

Brisa Parent

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Funding

Brisa Parent is funded through dividends and portfolio divestments

Brisa Parent

Brisa has no debt at the parent Co. level– The parent Co. has no need to access funding markets at this time

as such, Brisa parent Co. is not rated

The company is funded through dividends received from subsidiaries and divestments in portfolio assets

For the next 2 years BCR will not pay any dividend unless it refinances the 2013 bond

– Management is focused on ensuring a strong liquidity position for BCR

The parent Co. will receive dividends from other assets (around €20m over the next 2 years)

– Via Verde– Controlauto– Brisa O&M– Other service companies

Brisa parent Co. does not generate operational deficits (EBITDA>0)

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Brisa parent cash position

Strong cash position at parent Co. (€870m)

Brisa Parent

Cash reserve

– Brisa parent co’s cash reserves amount to around 750 million as of October 30th

Treasury stock

– Brisa presently owns 47.1 million treasury shares, which represent around 7,9% of its total share capital

– This treasury stock position is worth (based on a share price of 2.5) around 120 million €

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Equity commitments (2011-2015)

Brisa has cash reserves to meet these commitments

Brisa Parent

Project Stake Until YE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total

Baixo Tejo1 30% 0.9 1.7 15.2 0.0 0.0 17.8

Douro Litoral1 100% 1.5 285.0 0.0 0.0 120.02 407

Litoral Oeste1 15% 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 4.4

Brisal 70% 10.9 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3

Total 14.9 294.7 16.4 0.0 120.0 446.0

(1) Does not include stand by equity (€1.5m, €1m and €58.4m, respectively)(2) Not strictly an equity commitment; represents a Term Loan guaranteed by Brisa

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Overview

Stable dividend policyEquity commitments assured

Brisa Parent Co has plenty of resources to face its equity commitments and dividends (2012-2013)

Brisa Parent

€750m

€120m€20m €310m

€330m

€250m

Cash TreasuryShares

Dividend Inflowfrom

Subsidiaries

EquityCommitmments

DividendOutflow

RemainingCash/Cash

Eq's

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Key messages

Strong and resilient financial position

Wrap-up

Adequate financial resources to satisfy both creditors and shareholders

– Cash flow robustness

– Solid cash position even if BCR does not distribute dividends

BCR has assured liquidity for the medium term– Reinforcement of credit facilities

– Refinancing risk mitigated

Brisa will continue to analyze varied financing alternatives– BCR has the time and flexibility to look for long term financing solutions

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Daniel Amaral

Growth & Diversification

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Portfolio objectives

Growth & Diversification

Value creation

Growth

Diversification Priority on businesses with a client-base mainly outside Portugal

Focus on risk mitigation

First-level objective

Optimize current business line

New businesses to potentiateexisting portfolio profitability

Second-level objectives

Keeping the capacity to invest

Careful allocation of capital

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Portfolio objectives

A more demanding approach to new investments

The methodology by which Brisa analyzes and decides upon its investment opportunities was significantly improved

– Introduction of more rigid criteria over the return/value and risk metrics

– Standardization of analysis across projects and more accurate value and risk measures

– New investments to be decided under a portfolio approach and never on a standalone basis

– Capital injection requirements to be further scrutinized within the overall portfolio needs – same principle to apply to divestment decisions

– Exit assumptions to be introduced

Efficient Portfolio Management

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01International expansion: Full fledge O&M services

02Business diversification: ANA privatization

Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution

Growth & Diversification

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01International expansion: Full fledge O&M services

02Business diversification: ANA privatization

Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution

Growth & Diversification

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Description

Integrated O&M provider:

Classic O&M

Tolls collection

ETC management

Mobility and Congestion Management

Clients Base

Concession holders willing to maximize value through an allocation of the O&M effort to a third party as a service provider

Public bodies looking to outsource road operations for efficiency and/or innovation reasons

International O&M services

Brisa is developing a full-fledge O&M platformAs a “business per se” including ETC and technology services

Business model where Brisa can add value

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Where toBrisa should develop proactively the full-fledge O&Mbusiness in two priority markets (India and USA)

Brisa will continue to screen new markets in order to identify other potential opportunities (Turkey)

Focus

A transformational change to the way Brisa does business

Leverage on Brisa recognized competences on O&M

Potentiate portfolio value

Capital light approach

International O&M services

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Indian market

Feedback Brisa Highways is a joint-venture between Brisa and Feedback to provide O&M services to Indian concessionaires

FBH has won its first project, Bandra Worli Sealink, through its commercial brand Ezeeway

Project still on its startup process with enhanced focus on Business development

Local organization in place with strong ability to demonstrate capacity to deliver

Feedback Brisa Highways

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US market

US Federal Government is reducing its role in funding highway infrastructures

A number of identified states are well below the average on Miles of Freeways

Using a private sector O&M operator has been tested by some DOTs

Screening analysis

Objective

Establish a partnership with a US partner under a top-down approach - preference for someone with a national presence

Leverage on NWP experience

Focus on the State of Colorado to enhance value creation for NWP

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In tandem with the O&M effort Brisa will also expand its worldwide presence through consultancy services focused on mobility solutions

Development to be undertaken through Brisa’s Dutch joint-venture BNV

BNV can serve as “market-insight generator” for future O&M opportunities

BNV has currently 2 mobility projects in The Netherlands and 1 O&M consultancy project in Turkey

– Project SpitsScoren in Rotterdam

– Project Spitsvrij in Utrecht

– Gebze-Izmir O&M consultancy services

Consultancy services

BNV

Another market entry approach

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01International diversification: Full fledge O&M services

02Business diversification: ANA privatization

Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution

Growth & Diversification

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Airports vs. Toll roads

Airport traffic is exposed to a wide range of destinations, being therefore less dependent, when compared to motorways, to the domestic GDP where the infrastructure is based

Traffic

Business Model

RegulationMore demanding regulation. The regulator sets a target return on capital and fix a maximum tariff per passenger

Airports present a diversified business model approach with a lower sensitivity to fluctuations on demand

Similar profile in terms of cash conversion (both capital intensive)

Similar but different

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100% 70%

Overview of ANA, airport operator

Group Companies

ANA’s Airports

Lisbon Porto Faro P. Delgada S. Maria Horta Flores

Mainland Azores

Beja

A total of seven airports, three in mainland Portugal and four in the Azores islands. Total turnover in 2010: €339m

Portway, provider of handling services. Total turnover in 2010: €51m

ANAM, concessionaire of the two airports in Madeira island. Total turnover in 2010: €38m

ANA’s portfolio

(Full Consolidation) (Full Consolidation)

Funchal

P. Santo

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ANA’s 2005-10 CAGR:– Passengers 5.0% (28.3m1)

– Turnover 8.3% (€406.0m1)

– EBITDA 10.0% (€164.2m1)

– EBITDA margin (2010) 40.4%

– Net Debt/EBITDA (2010) 3.9x (net debt: €637m)

Faro

Lisbon

Porto

Passenger Mix in 2010 (Lisbon)

Growing business

Overview of ANA, airport operator

Revenue breakdown 2010

ANA selected indicators

12010 figures

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A very attractive asset

Sizeable airport with significant room for value creation

Competitive Positioning– Attractive size with large catchment area and natural

monopoly characteristics

Geographical competitive advantage– Potential to develop a secondary hub, mainly to

Africa and South America

Passenger Mix– High origin and destination base with balanced

tourism/business mix

Revenue Mix– Potential to increase exposure to non-aeronautical activities

Overview of ANA, airport operator

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A major growth opportunity for Brisa

Brisa perceived to be the logical partner for a significant number of investors

ANA privatization

Very limited number of domestic players with financial capacity to invest

Three main processes were launched in the European airport market: – Privatization of French regional airports– Privatization of Spanish airports (Barcelona + Madrid)

– Disposal of the Hochtief AirPort

One unique opportunity for someone with expertise on managing infrastructure assets in Portugal

The only real growth infrastructure opportunity for Portugal in the coming years

Limited competition

Asset in Portugal but less exposed to Portugal

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Wrap-up

Two drivers for Brisa’sportfolio evolution

Growth & Diversification

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Wrap-up

International O&M services - leveraging Brisa’s O&M core skills for international growth

– Brisa will develop a full-fledge O&M platform as a “business line per se”. Consultancy services to be developed as a “market-insight generator”

– Brisa will focus the proactive development of its O&M business in India and USA, without losing sight of Turkey

ANA privatization - the obvious business diversification move in Portugal

Unique competitive position

Possible access to an additional O&M contract in our own natural market

Growth and diversification perfect fit with portfolio objectives

Two drivers for portfolio evolution

Growth under strict rules when implying new capital allocation

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Final remarksMaintaining strong free cash flowVasco de Mello

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2

Final remarks

Yes, we are living tough times and traffic is under pressure

But, Brisa is delivering significant expenditure cuts that balance lower revenues and higher financial costs

Brisa has been successfully managing OPEX and CAPEXand will keep on doing so

Focus on cash flow

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3

By 2014 annual expenditures (CAPEX and OPEX) will be lower by €45m

Brisa will deliver a significant expenditure performance already in 2012, with a combined reduction of €35m

– €5m in OPEX, on top of an estimated €10m COGS reduction due to lower tolling equipment sales

– €30m in CAPEX vs. previous guidance (€20m lower than YE2011 estimate)

Brisa will be maintaining a strong free cash flow in line with previous years

Final remarks

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4

Yes, despite the strong cash flow generation at BCRBrisa has non performing assets (Douro & Brisal)

But our equity commitments are being fulfilled and our accounts have and will reflect the impairment charges

There is upside in front of us and management is focused on extracting value from the investments through balanced negotiations

Focus on cash flow generation and extracting value from the portfolio

Final remarks

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5

Yes, our business is a geared one and debt markets are challenging for Portuguese Corporates

But Brisa, has enough funds and facilities to meet its obligations

– Strong cash position

– Liquidity issues have been dealt, as BCR has been accessing medium term bank facilities

– Cost of debt is relatively low and manageable

Medium term sound liquidity position

Final remarks

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6

Yes, there is, and there will be on the coming years, little or no growth in Portugal

But Brisa is diversifying internationally, through light capital O&M services, opening options for future growth

Brisa continues to follow ANA privatization, diversifying domestically into other transport infrastructures

– ANA is a growing asset that, although located in Portugal, enjoys a significant international exposure

ANA has the potential to become a major opportunity in the short term

Final remarks

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7

Brisa has and will be maintaining a strong free cash flow generation

Brisa has its medium term liquidity needs addressed

So Brisa will maintain its dividend of 31 cents per share

No decision has been taken on Treasury Stock, which should reach 10% by year end 2011

Shareholder remuneration unchanged

Final remarks

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8

Total traffic down 5%– Traffic without former shadow tolls impact down 6%

Tariffs up 4%

Toll revenues down 1%

OPEX down 3%, on top of a €10m decrease due to lower tolling equipment sales

CAPEX down €30m vs. previous guidance – €20m lower than YE2011 estimate

Main targets for 2012

Maintaining strong free cash flow generation

Final remarks