CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: South Carolina, January 2016

7/25/2019 CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: South Carolina, January 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerSouth Carolina

Sample 1370 Registered Voters

Conducted January 17-21, 2016Margin of Error 5.3%

1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?

A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%

Some . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%No attention so far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in South Carolina?

Denitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73%Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%Denitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%

3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?


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, y y p p y


4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the South Carolina Republican Presidentialprimary in 2016?Asked of Republican primary voters

Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

5. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the South Carolina DemocraticPresidential primary in 2016?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Hillary Clinton 60%


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7. What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?Asked of Republican primary voters who are not very strongly decided

Convince me they can really win . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%Convince me they stand with me on the issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%Convince me they can be effective in the job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%

Im never completely decided until Election Day . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%None of these . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

8. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59%Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices sofar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

9. Youve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you couldconsider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters

Yes, could consider No, could never consider


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11. Do you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?Asked of Republican primary voters

Yes, consistent No, not consistentDonald Trump 70% 30%Ted Cruz 68% 32%

Marco Rubio 54% 46%

12. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of thesecandidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?Asked of Republican primary voters

Understands Doesnt understand

Donald Trump 77% 23%Ted Cruz 74% 26%Marco Rubio 65% 35%

13. Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...Asked of Republican primary voters

Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%Win the General election in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%Fight terrorism 20%


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16. Regardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Both equallyHealth care policy 55% 30% 15%Wall Street reform 36% 48% 16%

Terrorism 57% 23% 20%Taxes 46% 35% 19%The economy and jobs 43% 33% 24%Gun policy 47% 25% 28%

17. From what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...Asked of Democratic primary voters

Realistic IdealisticHillary Clinton 73% 27%Bernie Sanders 38% 62%

18. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of thesecandidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?A k d f D ti i t


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20. When you vote in the South Carolina primary, you will be most satised about having achance to...Asked of Democratic primary voters

Suppor t an historic candidacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%Get progressive things done . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%Give the Democrats a good chance to win in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%

21. Do you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fairpoints?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Her critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%She has made fair points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%Have not heard criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%

22. Do you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fairpoints?Asked of Democratic primary voters

His critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22%He has made fair points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%


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25. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*

Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%

Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

26. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%

Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%


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29. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73%Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

30. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%


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1. Attention to CampaignHow much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?

Gender Age group Race/Ethnicity

Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic OtherA lot 45% 60% 32% 28% 35% 50% 55% 50% 30% Some 37% 30% 43% 37% 38% 37% 36% 34% 46% Not much 16% 10% 21% 35% 19% 12% 9% 15% 19% No attention so far 2% 0% 4% 0% 7% 1% 0% 1% 5%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (Weighted N) (1,370) (616) (753) (164) (327) (599) (280) (995) (347) (8) (20)

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2. Likelihood of VotingHow likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in South Carolina?


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic Other

Denitely will vote 73% 82% 66% 57% 70% 74% 84% 71% 79% Probably will vote 13% 8% 17% 11% 16% 13% 10% 13% 12% Maybe will vote 6% 1% 10% 31% 2% 3% 1% 6% 6% Probably will not vote 5% 4% 5% 0% 8% 4% 4% 5% 1% Denitely will not vote 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% Dont know 2% 4% 1% 0% 1% 4% 0% 3% 0%


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3. 2016 Primary TurnoutIn 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?



Democratic 38% 36% 40% 42% 41% 39% 31% 23% 81% Republican 35% 41% 29% 16% 29% 36% 50% 46% 1% Neither 8% 11% 6% 0% 10% 10% 7% 10% 5% Dont know 19% 12% 24% 42% 20% 15% 12% 21% 12%


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4. First Choice Republican CandidateWhich candidate are you most likely to vote for in the South Carolina Republican Presidential primary in 2016?

Asked of Republican primary voters



Jeb Bush 8% 3% 13% 0% 7% 10% 8% 8% Ben Carson 9% 7% 11% 9% 16% 9% 6% 9% Chris Christie 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% Ted Cruz 21% 21% 20% 8% 29% 20% 20% 21% Carly Fiorina 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% Jim Gilmore 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mike Huckabee 2% 1% 3% 6% 3% 1% 1% 2% John Kasich 2% 2% 1% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% Rand Paul 3% 6% 1% 27% 3% 0% 0% 3% Marco Rubio 13% 13% 13% 8% 9% 14% 16% 13% Rick Santorum 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Donald Trump 40% 44% 35% 33% 30% 44% 42% 40% No preference 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% 0% 1%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (Weighted N) (804) (411) (393) (72) (153) (311) (267) (782) (5) (6) (11)

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5. First Choice Democratic CandidateWhich candidate are you most likely to vote for in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary in 2016?Asked of Democratic primary voters



Hillary Clinton 60% 50% 67% 53% 70% 71% 38% 76% Martin OMalley 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Bernie Sanders 38% 49% 31% 46% 28% 28% 60% 22% No preference 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2%


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6. Republican Candidate SupportWhich best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?Asked of Republican primary voters



Very strong 42% 43% 40% 53% 41% 42% 39% 42% Strong 30% 32% 29% 17% 33% 32% 30% 30% Somewhat strong 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 21% 28% 23% Not too strong 4% 1% 7% 7% 3% 5% 3% 4%


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7. Republican Candidate CertaintyWhat could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?Asked of Republican primary voters who are not very strongly decided



Convince me they can really win 33% 29% 37% 23% 31% 41% 34% Convince me they stand with me onthe issues 19% 19% 19% 20% 18% 16% 18% Convince me they can be effective inthe job 31% 33% 29% 34% 34% 31% 31% Im never completely decided untilElection Day 11% 11% 12% 13% 11% 9% 12% None of these 5% 8% 3% 11% 5% 3% 5%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (Weighted N) (464) (232) (233) (33) (90) (180) (161) (446) (5) (6) (8)

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8. Enthusiasm for First ChoiceHow would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?Asked of Democratic primary voters



Enthusiastic 59% 70% 51% 63% 59% 56% 70% 52% Supporting with reservations 33% 29% 36% 26% 38% 35% 26% 38% Considering as best alternative 7% 0% 13% 11% 3% 9% 4% 10%


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9. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald TrumpYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters



Yes, could consider 48% 50% 47% 56% 52% 49% 47% No, could never consider 52% 50% 53% 44% 48% 51% 53%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (Weighted N) (446) (208) (238) (46) (100) (162) (138) (433) (5) (4) (4)

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10. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted CruzYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters



Yes, could consider 60% 63% 57% 45% 60% 64% 61% 60% No, could never consider 40% 37% 43% 55% 40% 36% 39% 40%


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12. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris ChristieYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters





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13. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb BushYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters





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14. Republican Candidate Consideration John KasichYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters





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15. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben CarsonYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters





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16. Republican Candidate Approach Donald TrumpIn trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...Asked of Republican primary voters



Too extreme 47% 43% 50% 75% 52% 38% 47% 47% About right 50% 53% 48% 25% 45% 58% 50% 50% Too moderate 3% 4% 2% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3%


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17. Republican Candidate Approach Ted CruzIn trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...Asked of Republican primary voters





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18. Republican Candidate Approach Marco RubioIn trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...Asked of Republican primary voters





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19. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald TrumpDo you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?Asked of Republican primary voters



Yes, consistent 70% 66% 74% 54% 63% 74% 74% 70% No, not consistent 30% 34% 26% 46% 37% 26% 26% 30%


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20. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted CruzDo you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?Asked of Republican primary voters





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21. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco RubioDo you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?Asked of Republican primary voters





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22. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald TrumpRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Republican primary voters



Understands 77% 78% 77% 49% 75% 86% 76% 77% Doesnt understand 23% 22% 23% 51% 25% 14% 24% 23%


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23. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted CruzRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Republican primary voters





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24. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco RubioRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Republican primary voters





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25. Republican Vote ReasonsWhats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...Asked of Republican primary voters



Defend my faith and religious values 16% 15% 17% 14% 30% 17% 8% 16% Win the General election in November 25% 27% 22% 11% 25% 17% 37% 25% Fight terrorism 20% 14% 26% 26% 13% 21% 21% 20% Shake up politics-as-usual 20% 27% 12% 36% 17% 22% 16% 20% Bring back jobs and the Americaneconomy 19% 16% 22% 13% 14% 23% 18% 19%


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26. Ted Cruz BirthplaceDo you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?Asked of Republican primary voters



Serious 26% 25% 26% 47% 30% 26% 17% 25% Not serious 74% 75% 74% 53% 70% 74% 83% 75%


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27. Donald Trump NY ValuesDoes Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?Asked of Republican primary voters



Better 3% 2% 4% 0% 3% 3% 4% 3% Worse 11% 18% 4% 27% 22% 7% 5% 11% Does not matter 86% 80% 92% 73% 75% 90% 90% 86%


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28. Democratic Candidate Policies Health care policyRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters



Hillary Clinton 55% 49% 59% 45% 64% 68% 36% 70% Bernie Sanders 30% 38% 24% 36% 24% 18% 48% 17% Both equally 15% 13% 16% 19% 12% 13% 16% 13%


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29. Democratic Candidate Policies Wall Street reformRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters





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30. Democratic Candidate Policies TerrorismRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters





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31. Democratic Candidate Policies TaxesRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters





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32. Democratic Candidate Policies The economy and jobsRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters





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33. Democratic Candidate Policies Gun policyRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters





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34. Democratic Candidate Proposals Hillary ClintonFrom what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...Asked of Democratic primary voters



Realistic 73% 70% 75% 57% 82% 83% 74% 72% Idealistic 27% 30% 25% 43% 18% 17% 26% 28%


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35. Democratic Candidate Proposals Bernie SandersFrom what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...Asked of Democratic primary voters



Realistic 38% 33% 42% 56% 25% 30% 36% 39% Idealistic 62% 67% 58% 44% 75% 70% 64% 61%


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36. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary ClintonRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Democratic primary voters





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37. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie SandersRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Democratic primary voters





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38. Democratic Candidate Attention Hillary ClintonAs President, would each candidate ultimately do...?Asked of Democratic primary voters



What big donors want 49% 53% 47% 61% 34% 42% 63% 39% What regular people want 51% 47% 53% 39% 66% 58% 37% 61%


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39. Democratic Candidate Attention Bernie SandersAs President, would each candidate ultimately do...?Asked of Democratic primary voters



What big donors want 22% 8% 32% 25% 22% 19% 7% 32% What regular people want 78% 92% 68% 75% 78% 81% 93% 68%


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40. Democratic Vote ReasonsWhen you vote in the South Carolina primary, you will be most satised about having a chance to...Asked of Democratic primary voters



Support an historic candidacy 8% 8% 8% 15% 8% 3% 7% 9% Shake up politics-as-usual 10% 11% 9% 13% 9% 6% 19% 3% Get progressive things done 30% 31% 29% 32% 21% 36% 36% 25% Give the Democrats a good chance towin in November 52% 51% 54% 39% 63% 55% 39% 62%


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41. Hillary Clinton Critiques to SandersDo you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fair points?Asked of Democratic primary voters



Her critiques have been unfair 27% 40% 18% 33% 23% 20% 40% 17% She has made fair points 44% 44% 45% 32% 54% 60% 41% 46% Have not heard criticism 28% 17% 37% 35% 23% 19% 18% 36%


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42. Bernie Sanders Critiques to ClintonDo you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fair points?Asked of Democratic primary voters



His critiques have been unfair 22% 25% 20% 19% 30% 22% 9% 32% He has made fair points 48% 50% 46% 44% 45% 57% 66% 34% Have not heard criticism 30% 25% 33% 37% 25% 21% 24% 34%


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CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerSouth Carolina Likely Republican Voters

Sample 805 Likely Republican Primary VotersConducted January 17-21, 2016Margin of Error 5.7%

1. Attention to Campaign

How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?

Ideology Tea Party Evangelical

Total Very conservative Conservative Moderate Yes No Yes No

A lot 67% 80% 65% 72% 81% 58% 65% 72%Some 26% 14% 30% 23% 18% 31% 26% 25%Not much 7% 6% 5% 5% 2% 11% 9% 3%No attention so far 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%(Weighted N) (805) (200) (316) (137) (319) (451) (526) (228)

Gender Age group Party IDTotal Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Republican Independent

A lot 67% 77% 56% 59% 57% 69% 72% 67% 68%Some 26% 20% 33% 33% 35% 25% 21% 26% 26%Not much 7% 3% 10% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6%No attention so far 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%(Weighted N) (805) (411) (394) (72) (153) (311) (268) (556) (197)

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2. First Choice Republican CandidateWhich candidate are you most likely to vote for in the South Carolina Republican Presidential primary in 2016?Asked of Republican primary voters



Jeb Bush 8% 9% 6% 5% 3% 11% 9% 3%Ben Carson 9% 6% 8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 6%Chris Christie 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 5%Ted Cruz 21% 35% 22% 6% 35% 12% 26% 11%Carly Fiorina 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2%Jim Gilmore 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Mike Huckabee 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 0%John Kasich 2% 0% 1% 7% 0% 3% 1% 4%Rand Paul 3% 0% 1% 15% 0% 6% 4% 3%

Marco Rubio 13% 10% 10% 14% 10% 15% 10% 18%Rick Santorum 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Donald Trump 40% 36% 47% 40% 42% 38% 36% 47%No preference 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%


Gender Age group Party ID

Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Republican Independent

Jeb Bush 8% 3% 13% 0% 7% 10% 8% 9% 6%Ben Carson 9% 7% 11% 9% 16% 9% 6% 7% 12%

Chris Christie 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2%Ted Cruz 21% 21% 20% 8% 29% 20% 20% 23% 17%Carly Fiorina 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%Jim Gilmore 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Mike Huckabee 2% 1% 3% 6% 3% 1% 1% 2% 0%John Kasich 2% 2% 1% 5% 1% 1% 3% 1% 3%Rand Paul 3% 6% 1% 27% 3% 0% 0% 0% 11%Marco Rubio 13% 13% 13% 8% 9% 14% 16% 14% 10%Rick Santorum 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Donald Trump 40% 44% 35% 33% 30% 44% 42% 39% 38%No preference 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%

continued on the next page .. .

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continued from previous pageGender Age group Party ID



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3. Republican Candidate SupportWhich best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?Asked of Republican primary voters



Very strong 42% 53% 38% 43% 44% 40% 44% 36%Strong 30% 27% 40% 16% 33% 28% 29% 33%Somewhat strong 24% 16% 20% 32% 22% 25% 23% 27%Not too strong 4% 3% 2% 9% 1% 6% 4% 4%




Very strong 42% 43% 40% 53% 41% 42% 39% 40% 49%Strong 30% 32% 29% 17% 33% 32% 30% 31% 30%Somewhat strong 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 21% 28% 24% 20%Not too strong 4% 1% 7% 7% 3% 5% 3% 5% 1%


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4. Republican Candidate CertaintyWhat could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?Asked of Republican primary voters who are not very strongly decided



Convince me they can really win 33% 37% 30% 30% 37% 29% 30% 39%Convince me they stand with me onthe issues 19% 20% 20% 20% 17% 21% 24% 10%Convince me they can be effective inthe job 31% 21% 31% 34% 27% 34% 30% 33%Im never completely decided untilElection Day 11% 14% 11% 13% 6% 14% 12% 10%None of these 5% 8% 8% 4% 12% 2% 4% 8%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

(Weighted N) (464) (93) (193) (78) (177) (268) (291) (145)



Convince me they can really win 33% 29% 37% 23% 31% 41% 34% 35%Convince me they stand with me onthe issues 19% 19% 19% 20% 18% 16% 20% 11%Convince me they can be effective inthe job 31% 33% 29% 34% 34% 31% 30% 34%Im never completely decided untilElection Day 11% 11% 12% 13% 11% 9% 11% 12%

None of these 5% 8% 3% 11% 5% 3% 5% 7%Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%(Weighted N) (464) (232) (233) (33) (90) (180) (161) (330) (99)

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5. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald TrumpYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters



Yes, could consider 48% 51% 56% 31% 67% 36% 47% 52%No, could never consider 52% 49% 44% 69% 33% 64% 53% 48%




Yes, could consider 48% 50% 47% 56% 52% 49% 51% 38%

No, could never consider 52% 50% 53% 44% 48% 51% 49% 62%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%(Weighted N) (446) (208) (238) (46) (100) (162) (138) (317) (104)

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6. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted CruzYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters







Yes, could consider 60% 63% 57% 45% 60% 64% 61% 64% 56%

No, could never consider 40% 37% 43% 55% 40% 36% 39% 36% 44%


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7. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco RubioYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters







Yes, could consider 57% 57% 57% 56% 56% 66% 62% 50%

No, could never consider 43% 43% 43% 44% 44% 34% 38% 50%


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8. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris ChristieYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters







Yes, could consider 37% 36% 38% 11% 34% 36% 48% 42% 29%

No, could never consider 63% 64% 62% 89% 66% 64% 52% 58% 71%


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9. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb BushYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters







Yes, could consider 32% 26% 38% 35% 33% 32% 30% 36% 21%No, could never consider 68% 74% 62% 65% 67% 68% 70% 64% 79%


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10. Republican Candidate Consideration John KasichYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters









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11. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben CarsonYouve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?Asked of Republican primary voters









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12. Republican Candidate Approach Donald TrumpIn trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...Asked of Republican primary voters



Too extreme 47% 41% 37% 62% 35% 54% 49% 40%About right 50% 56% 59% 38% 59% 44% 48% 57%Too moderate 3% 4% 5% 1% 6% 1% 4% 3%




Too extreme 47% 43% 50% 75% 52% 38% 47% 46% 46%About right 50% 53% 48% 25% 45% 58% 50% 51% 51%Too moderate 3% 4% 2% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%


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13. Republican Candidate Approach Ted CruzIn trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...Asked of Republican primary voters









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14. Republican Candidate Approach Marco RubioIn trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...Asked of Republican primary voters









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15. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald TrumpDo you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?Asked of Republican primary voters



Yes, consistent 70% 68% 76% 65% 68% 71% 66% 78%No, not consistent 30% 32% 24% 35% 32% 29% 34% 22%




Yes, consistent 70% 66% 74% 54% 63% 74% 74% 73% 61%No, not consistent 30% 34% 26% 46% 37% 26% 26% 27% 39%


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16. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted CruzDo you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?Asked of Republican primary voters









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17. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco RubioDo you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?Asked of Republican primary voters









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18. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald TrumpRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Republican primary voters



Understands 77% 78% 87% 62% 86% 72% 76% 81%Doesnt understand 23% 22% 13% 38% 14% 28% 24% 19%




Understands 77% 78% 77% 49% 75% 86% 76% 79% 70%Doesnt understand 23% 22% 23% 51% 25% 14% 24% 21% 30%


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19. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted CruzRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Republican primary voters









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20. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco RubioRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Republican primary voters









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21. Republican Vote ReasonsWhats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...Asked of Republican primary voters



Defend my faith and religious values 16% 21% 19% 4% 14% 18% 24% 2%Win the General election in November 25% 23% 31% 17% 27% 24% 22% 32%Fight terrorism 20% 21% 14% 25% 19% 18% 19% 15%Shake up politics-as-usual 20% 23% 17% 27% 22% 19% 20% 23%Bring back jobs and the Americaneconomy 19% 13% 19% 26% 17% 21% 15% 29%




Defend my faith and religious values 16% 15% 17% 14% 30% 17% 8% 18% 14%Win the General election in November 25% 27% 22% 11% 25% 17% 37% 27% 23%Fight terrorism 20% 14% 26% 26% 13% 21% 21% 22% 12%Shake up politics-as-usual 20% 27% 12% 36% 17% 22% 16% 16% 33%Bring back jobs and the Americaneconomy 19% 16% 22% 13% 14% 23% 18% 17% 19%


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gSouth Carolina Likely Republican Voters

22. Ted Cruz BirthplaceDo you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?Asked of Republican primary voters



Serious 26% 25% 21% 33% 16% 31% 25% 26%Not serious 74% 75% 79% 67% 84% 69% 75% 74%




Serious 26% 25% 26% 47% 30% 26% 17% 25% 25%Not serious 74% 75% 74% 53% 70% 74% 83% 75% 75%


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gSouth Carolina Likely Republican Voters

23. Donald Trump NY ValuesDoes Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?Asked of Republican primary voters



Better 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 6%Worse 11% 13% 11% 18% 15% 9% 13% 8%Does not matter 86% 83% 86% 80% 83% 88% 85% 87%




Better 3% 2% 4% 0% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2%Worse 11% 18% 4% 27% 22% 7% 5% 9% 17%Does not matter 86% 80% 92% 73% 75% 90% 90% 87% 81%


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gSouth Carolina Likely Democratic Voters

Sample 388 Likely Democratic Primary VotersConducted January 17-21, 2016Margin of Error 9.4%

1. Attention to Campaign

How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?Ideology Race

Total Very liberal Liberal Moderate White Black

A lot 53% 72% 64% 45% 72% 40%Some 34% 27% 21% 43% 24% 42%Not much 12% 0% 16% 13% 4% 18%No attention so far 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%(Weighted N) (388) (70) (106) (116) (163) (221)


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Democrat Independent

A lot 53% 70% 41% 52% 56% 46% 49% 68%Some 34% 26% 41% 38% 34% 46% 37% 22%Not much 12% 4% 18% 10% 10% 8% 13% 10%No attention so far 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%


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gSouth Carolina Likely Democratic Voters

2. First Choice Democratic CandidateWhich candidate are you most likely to vote for in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary in 2016?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology Race


Hillary Clinton 60% 48% 54% 68% 38% 76%Martin OMalley 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Bernie Sanders 38% 52% 45% 30% 60% 22%No preference 2% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2%



Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Democrat IndependentHillary Clinton 60% 50% 67% 53% 70% 71% 69% 30%Martin OMalley 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Bernie Sanders 38% 49% 31% 46% 28% 28% 30% 69%No preference 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0%


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South Carolina Likely Democratic Voters

3. Enthusiasm for First ChoiceHow would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology Race


Enthusiastic 59% 75% 67% 53% 70% 52%Supporting with reservations 33% 25% 30% 42% 26% 38%Considering as best alternative 7% 0% 3% 5% 4% 10%




Enthusiastic 59% 70% 51% 63% 59% 56% 59% 60%Supporting with reservations 33% 29% 36% 26% 38% 35% 34% 32%Considering as best alternative 7% 0% 13% 11% 3% 9% 7% 8%


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4. Democratic Candidate Policies Health care policyRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology Race


Hillary Clinton 55% 36% 49% 67% 36% 70%Bernie Sanders 30% 48% 39% 22% 48% 17%Both equally 15% 16% 12% 11% 16% 13%




Hillary Clinton 55% 49% 59% 45% 64% 68% 63% 27%Bernie Sanders 30% 38% 24% 36% 24% 18% 24% 51%Both equally 15% 13% 16% 19% 12% 13% 13% 22%


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5. Democratic Candidate Policies Wall Street reformRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology RaceTotal Very liberal Liberal Moderate White Black







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6. Democratic Candidate Policies TerrorismRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters








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7. Democratic Candidate Policies TaxesRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters








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8. Democratic Candidate Policies The economy and jobsRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology Race








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9. Democratic Candidate Policies Gun policyRegardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology Race








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10. Democratic Candidate Proposals Hillary ClintonFrom what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...Asked of Democratic primary voters


Realistic 73% 87% 56% 82% 74% 72%Idealistic 27% 13% 44% 18% 26% 28%




Realistic 73% 70% 75% 57% 82% 83% 77% 62%

Idealistic 27% 30% 25% 43% 18% 17% 23% 38%


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11. Democratic Candidate Proposals Bernie SandersFrom what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...Asked of Democratic primary voters


Realistic 38% 39% 38% 30% 36% 39%Idealistic 62% 61% 62% 70% 64% 61%




Realistic 38% 33% 42% 56% 25% 30% 38% 38%

Idealistic 62% 67% 58% 44% 75% 70% 62% 62%


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12. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary ClintonRegardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel rightnow?Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology Race


Understands 69% 55% 60% 83% 52% 82%Doesnt understand 31% 45% 40% 17% 48% 18%






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13. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie SandersRegardless of who youre suppo

Documents

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: South Carolina, January 2016