CE 401

Climate Change Science and Engineering

predictions from modelsglobal energy

22 February 2011

team selection and project topic proposal (paragraph): due today, electronically, to gmount@wsu.edu and blamb@wsu.edu

exam on first half of class: 2.24.2011 Thurs

review session for exam, today at 5:00PM, Sloan 150

pre-warned questions for the exam on the 24th:

• what is the average global percent increase in [CO2]/yr since 1959?

• what is the solar energy input [w/m2] at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere?

• what is the average albedo of the Earth [%]?

• what is the solar cycle variability in solar output measured at top of Earth’s atmosphere? [%]

• how many degrees is the Earth warmer with greenhouse gases than without? [°C]

• what ~ percent of global carbon emissions stays in the Earth’s atmosphere?

• what is the pre-industrial (1750) level of [CO2] [ppm]?

• what is the current level of [CO2] [ppm]?

possible topics for your project – you must have a strong engineering component/analysis:• carbon sequestration• energy efficiency• clean technologies• the technological solution• nuclear fusion• high performance buildings and green technologies• unconventional oil• fission nuclear• geothermal energy• solar photovoltaic• solar thermal• biomass• hydrogen economy• mitigation strategies in transportation, residential and commercial buildings, electric powersector, industry, agriculture• ag sector – afforestation, forest management, soil carbon sequestration, biofuel offsets,livestock management, nitrous oxide related soil management

• title - the topic must address the engineering of climate change• what subject to you intend to address• why is the subject important to the engineering of climate change• do you have a hypothesis to propose concerning your subject

exam next Thursday, 2.24.2011

There are the pre-warned questions, just memorize the answers and write down on the exam – I will make it worth your while to learn these important facts.

There will be numerical questions on the exam – all equations will be given to you with constants.Review the homework and that should get you up on this curve. Solutions are on the website.

There will be short answer type questions – explain something

There will be several longer questions to see if you can synthesize the numerous charts andgraphs that were presented in class.

a quick look at global energy sources and projected demand

The amount of carbon by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed.

1970 2004

global energy production by type

global GHG emissions (anthropogenic)

to 2004

China/India

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 03930

400

800

1200

1600

2000Ca

rbon

Em

issio

ns p

er y

ear

(C to

ns x

1,0

00,0

00)

China

USA

Japan

Russian Fed.India

07

2009

Time (y)

1971 - 2003 by region; mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent

Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

CHINAUSA

INDIA

RUSSIAJA

PAN

GERMANYIRAN

SOUTH KOREA

CANADA

UNITED KINGDOM

MEXICO

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH AFRICA

INDONESIAITALY

BRAZIL

AUSTRALIA

FRANCE (inl. M

onac

o)

POLAND

SPAIN0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Tota

l Car

bon

Emiss

ions

(to

ns x

1,0

00,0

00)

Per Capita Emissions

(tons C person y-1)

Total global energy demand

70%increase

(International Energy Outlook 2006)

Energy use by type

(International Energy Outlook 2006)

Who has the oil?USA

China

India

(http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)

Hubbert’s curve

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010

Foss

il Fue

l Em

issio

n (Pg

Cy-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections

A1B Models AverageA1FI Models AverageA1T Models AverageA2 Models Average

B1 Models AverageB2 Models Average

ObservedProjected

Time (y)

discussion of climate change:

• where are you on the warming question• where are you on the attribution of cause question

• natural cause• human cause• obviously the attribution is a mixture, the question is how much of either

• is climate change a manufactured question “existing only in the feverish imaginations ofenvironmental zealots”?• why is climate change so polarizing – it always seems to bring out the worst• how important do you think it is to act now with what you might consider insufficient evidence• the technological solution?• how would you advise a person in the Congress to vote on climate legislation• how important do you think it is to participate in “global solutions”• will the US be at a competitive disadvantage by adopting energy policies to limit GHG emissions• how should GHG emissions be limited• how do you feel about responsibility for the rising GHG concentration problem – developedworld and the developing world – ethics of climate change•