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CERF Key Messages & Propositions
Andrew Campbell
Canberra 16 September 2008
www.triplehelix.com.au
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Overarching Observations
• A laudable attempt to engage policy and science– More than 90 officials on the attendance list
• High commitment from Senior Executives– Commendable, especially in a sitting week
• Strong overlap between CERF investments and major issues
for the Department and the Government
• $100m is a relatively large investment for this portfolio in
environmental research
• CERF has attracted many leading environmental researchers,
and some great work is underway– Top talent, rich content, generally high level of relevance
Quotable Quotes“Not to decide to win, is to decide to lose…”
“We need to start understanding each others’ language better — your resilience is not my resilience”
“These are very beautiful places that we’re trying to protect, so we’ve got to have beautiful questions”
“Fishers should be paying for the establishment of MPAs”
“Biodiversity monitoring is hard, expensive and terribly spotty”
“We are knee-deep in decision support tools that aren’t used”
“EPBC … only has strength when it is too late”
“Lower levels of government are vulnerable to special pleading”
New technology
• For environmental sensing and monitoring
– E.g. Bowerbird open source software and hardware for user-
trainable acoustic biodiversity monitoring
• will cope with any vocal animal - e.g. “extra-marital larks”
• For managing large datasets
• For presenting complex information
– e.g. Google Earth front ends
• For interactive, web-based communication
– e.g. Wikis
• None of these reduce the need for having appropriately
trained and skilled people throughout the research process
The Minister• One of the hallmarks of this government is
evidence-based policy
• “Research is one of the most powerful tools”
• But it must be accessible, understandable and
useful for policy
• Collaborative
• Synthesising existing knowledge and new data
• Australia as the world’s leading green economy
– Driven by new ideas
– Underpinned by the best research
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Peter Garrett take home messages
• The Government recognises the value of good science and depends on good two-way communications with policy– Are the communication channels working?
• We need to be able to demonstrate the value of the research we’re funding– Adoption measures
– Impact measures
The Secretary• Our track record on environment programs over last twenty
years “a mixed one at best”• It is not inadequate research or lack of knowledge that has led
to resource depletion and degradation• Rather, planning failures to deal with long-term balance,
incremental impacts and ad hoc decisions• “too long have research and policy been in different cars — we
need them in the same car, one reading the map, one driving”• There is a good match between CERF and the Dept’s priorities• The subsidiarity principle nostrum does not hold for many
environmental issues– Anticipates push back during 2010 EPBC review
• Would like to see the CERF conference broadened in future
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The senior policy executive• The Zammit orderly policy cycle
– c.f. The Hollowmen, The Games or Yes Minister
• Biodiversity as a ‘wicked’ policy problem• 3 lenses of knowledge and evidence:
PoliticalJudgement:
diffuse, fluid and adversarial
ScientificResearch:
systematic approaches, quantitative and qualitative.
experimental and action-oriented
ProfessionalPractices:
organisational knowledge,implementation,
practical experience
Policyproblem
Inform and influence
policy response
B Head AJPM 2008, 67(1)
Key Themes
• Get the questions right
• Knowledge fit for purpose
• Improving environmental decision-making
• The return on information
• Valuing the environment
• Measuring impact and progress
• Learning through time
Tackle the Right Questions
• This is an applied research domain.
• The key questions revolve around “What should
we do?”
• What management actions or policy settings etc
will have what impact?
• Set them up as experiments and monitor them
properly
– Set up the problem and see if the tools work, don’t just
assume
Knowledge fit for purpose• Understand the knowledge need, in the
application context– What type of info is needed, by whom, when and in what form?
– Do you need to put a dollar figure on everything to make a better
decision?
• How good does the information have to be?
ANSWER: GOOD ENOUGH!
• This includes the process used to generate the numbers -
expert/stakeholder interaction etc
• Having the science won’t necessarily win the argument– Understand the politics and the economics
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Improving environmental decision-making
• AEDA, Landscape Logic and INFFER are generating useful
insights, tools and methods that are highly relevant to Caring for
our Country (and other programs like Reef Rescue)
– If adopted, they could potentially avoid yet another adverse ANAO report
– Help in working out where to invest, how to invest (which instruments to use)
– Help in taking a systems perspective
• Define Measurable and Feasible Outcomes
• Evaluation and Prioritisation are a continuum
• Drop the word ‘aspirational’ from targets
Valuing the environment
• The environment as “just another user” (Chris Schweizer re water) vs
the primacy of the environment and ecological functions and processes
– If we are to use economics to prioritise activity, then we need to value
ecosystem services (functional biodiversity) properly (Peter Davies)
• The value of attempting to assign a monetary value to environmental
assets and services
– Some natural assets (e.g. lungfish) can’t be valued ‘economically’
– Need alternative methods for endangered species (Angela Arthington)
• Versus the decision tools used to optimise the allocation of a given
quantum of resources
– E.g. AEDA, Landcape Logic, INFFER
The return on information• Understand the response curve for new information
– There can be diminishing marginal returns from additional investment
in information
– For socio-economic information, we are often in the early part of the
curve - good returns from modest investment
• Warning Flag: if you find yourself saying “why are they not
taking up our beautiful research?”
– You are in the wrong place!
– Either your research outputs are not adoptable
– They have been poorly communicated
– +/or you have not understood the knowledge need
Measuring impact and progress• Building memory into the system
– Designing systems that assume high levels of staff turnover, especially at the policy end
• Mandate durable, data-literate institutions (e.g. BoM)– (Ian Cresswell, Neil McKenzie)
• Information systems must be (Malcolm Thompson):– Time and scale sensitive (allow sufficient time to measure responses)
– Fit into the policy & decision making cycle
– Able to be organised by the agency
– Able to be used, and useful
– Capable of evolving
• Cutting edge research can take 20 yrs to penetrate policy– E.g. in Oz context, environmental flows R&D 1970, COAG 1994
• The need for indicators & reporting won’t go away
Toxification ofthe biosphere
Toxification ofthe biosphere
Humans
Land-use changesLand-use changes
Global climatechange
Global climatechange
Stratosphericozone depletion
Stratosphericozone depletion
Loss of biodiversityLoss of biodiversity
Invasion ofexotic species
Invasion ofexotic species
Infectious diseaseInfectious disease
Likens 2004, Water, Air &Soil Pollution
Gene LikensHUMAN-ACCELERATED ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Gene Likens
• A quietly compelling story underlining the value of long-term ecological research, experimentation and monitoring at a landscape scale “Speak out, when you have something to say”
• Results can take a long time to penetrate policy
– Especially when opposed by powerful vested interests
• Durable funding is critical for long-term work
– But the research questions have to stack up on merit
– “mindless monitoring” won’t cut it
1950 2050Population 2 billion 9 billion
CO2 310 ppm >450ppm
Energy Use 80EJ/yr >550EJ/yr
Sea Levels ———— 0.2-1.5m higher
Propositions about the futurePropositions about the future
• Australia can lead by example
• The penalties of procrastination (Greg Bourne)
– We will suffer if we do not allocate water to aquatic ecosystems (Angela)
• Articulating potential tipping points
• Be upfront about the timeframe in which decisions need to be
made and the implications of delay
• But, forecasting capability is limited by time series aggregation
and data reliability problems (Malcolm Thompson)
• Forward-looking visualisation tools (e.g. Steve Williams in Wet
Tropics) can be very useful for media and politicians
• Australia can lead by example
• The penalties of procrastination (Greg Bourne)
– We will suffer if we do not allocate water to aquatic ecosystems (Angela)
• Articulating potential tipping points
• Be upfront about the timeframe in which decisions need to be
made and the implications of delay
• But, forecasting capability is limited by time series aggregation
and data reliability problems (Malcolm Thompson)
• Forward-looking visualisation tools (e.g. Steve Williams in Wet
Tropics) can be very useful for media and politicians
The next two slides owe a
great deal to many insights,
tips and advice offered
sagely, generously and
sometimes provocatively
over many years by Peter
Cullen
— a champion in maximising
the influence of research and
telling truth to power.
Lessons from the interfaceLessons from the interfacebetween science and policybetween science and policy
• Contested, crowded, contextual
• Stakes high, decisions urgent, facts uncertain or disputed
• Science thrives on a contest of ideas
– This can be problematic in public debate
• Public officials just one of many sources of advice
• Ministers/governments prefer wins, credit, initiatives
– over problems, conflict, confusion
• Durable relationships are critical
– based on mutual respect and trust
• Contested, crowded, contextual
• Stakes high, decisions urgent, facts uncertain or disputed
• Science thrives on a contest of ideas
– This can be problematic in public debate
• Public officials just one of many sources of advice
• Ministers/governments prefer wins, credit, initiatives
– over problems, conflict, confusion
• Durable relationships are critical
– based on mutual respect and trust
The knowledge-seeking behaviour The knowledge-seeking behaviour of policy makers of policy makers (after Cullen et al 2000) (after Cullen et al 2000)
• Senior policy makers are time-poor, information-overloaded people, most of whom don’t read much unless they have to;
• Only know what they need to know when they need to know it
• Have a very short-term, reactive perspective
• Rarely stay long in the same job — deep content knowledge is rare
• Want to summarise info in less than 1 page for Minister/top brass
• Averse to anything too complicated• Default to trusted sources, often in-house, even when they suspect
those sources may be out of date or incomplete
• May have a jaundiced opinion of science, believing it is:– too slow and too expensive– answering questions that no-one has asked,
accompanied by requests for more funding
• Senior policy makers are time-poor, information-overloaded people, most of whom don’t read much unless they have to;
• Only know what they need to know when they need to know it
• Have a very short-term, reactive perspective
• Rarely stay long in the same job — deep content knowledge is rare
• Want to summarise info in less than 1 page for Minister/top brass
• Averse to anything too complicated• Default to trusted sources, often in-house, even when they suspect
those sources may be out of date or incomplete
• May have a jaundiced opinion of science, believing it is:– too slow and too expensive– answering questions that no-one has asked,
accompanied by requests for more funding
Emerging questions for Policy— Strategic (thanks Charlie)
• What can research tell us about resilience?– Explain it in system-wide terms– Design principles for resilience planning– Can it be operationalised?
• Assets/threats frameworks vs ecosystem management approaches– Can/should they be linked, and if so, how?
• Governance arrangements for adaptive management• Socio-cultural and behavioural drivers of/for biodiversity
conservation and landscape management– To what extent are players ‘rational optimisers’?
Emerging questions for Policy— technical (thanks Charlie)
• How do we measure condition and change in condition?• What are the opportunities/limits for building and using
metrics to help calibrate investments?– For priority setting, resource allocation etc
• How can we grow volunteer-based monitoring of environmental condition and capture information consistently?
• Spatial allocation issues across scales continue to plague decision-making– The need for spatial info on existing land uses/condition seems
critical - is it?
Taking up the Minister’s challenge— are we making a difference?
• The CERF program will ultimately be judged on three things:– What knowledge assets have we created?
– To what extent is this knowledge being used & how? Adoption curve?
– What can we predict about the environmental benefit of the application
of CERF findings?
• This means that it will stand or fall (in the eyes of government
especially) on the success of its communication effort
• The next two years are critical, not just for this phase of CERF,
but for the long term shape of Environment Portfolio
investment in research, knowledge and information
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Taking up the Minister’s challenge (2)— the bones of a communication strategy
• Maximise synergies across the program– acknowledging great work happening in hubs, projects, MTSRF– minimise risks of tripping over each other – clarify emergent messages– don’t bombard or confuse shared target audiences
• DEWHA & other agency engagement plans (individual, face to face where possible)
• Teasing out key information needs– In the context of application
• Ensuring that we capture the quality across CERF– In useful forms– In useful timeframes
• Developing higher-level synthesis products, events and activities
Potential Synthesis Products• Fenner Conference, Shine Dome 10-12 March 2009
– AEDA and Landscape Logic
• Dedicated editions of Refereed Journals
• Radio/TV series of stories
– (e.g. Catalyst, Bush Telegraph, Landline, Science Show?)
– Or specific project like “Catchment Detox”
• Synthesis publications around key policy questions
• International Conference(s)
• Grand Finale event in the Great Hall 2010, presenting key
lessons to Ministers, and setting the scene for CERF Mark II.
Ideas for next time?
• What is the mechanism to continue the conversation?
• “I was hoping more departmental staff would pose their research problems” (Hugh)
