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A methodology for scenario generation using system dynamics

Dr Graham Willis

Immediatedecisions

Systemchanges

Futurestrategy

1 to 5 yrs 5 to 10 yrs +10 yrs

Context

Numbers Key dynamicsTrends

Uncertainty

Scenarios

Scenario generation

• Influence diagram• Politicised – actors can effect causality• Clustered into themes• Used as starting point for scenarios• Plausible, traceable

Horizon Scanning

Key trends & dynamics

Workforce Analysis

Evidence-based

Scenario Generation Possible futuresAssumptions

Workforce Modelling

NumbersUncertainty

Future framework

Questions?