Ch. 12

Urbanization and Population

Population by the Numbers About 2,000 years ago the world’s population was around 300

million Little changed until the Industrial Revolution At the onset of the Industrial Revolution population began to

grow 1800 - first billion 1930 - second billion 1962 - 3 billion 1974 - 4 billion 1987 - 5 billion 1999 - 6 billion 2009 - 6.8 billion 2011 – 7 billion

World Population, 1700–2050

Causes of Population Increase

Demography - study of size, composition, growth, and distribution of human population

Fertility - incidence of childbearing in a country’s population

One measure of a society’s fertility is the crude birth rate - number of live births in a given year for every thousand people in a population

Demography: Explaining Population Increase

The crude birth rate is seen as a crude indicator of the birth rate because it includes in the calculation the entire population not just women that give birth

Higher the fertility = the faster the growth

Demography: Explaining Population Increase

One measure of death is the crude death rate, number of deaths in a given year for every thousand people in a population

Everything being equal: the lower the mortality, the higher the growth

In sum, we are seeing in some parts of the world high fertility with falling mortality

Three Population Statistics for World Regions

Demography: Explaining Population Increase

Infant mortality as a measure of a society’s quality of life

Infant mortality rate - number of deaths among children under one year of age for each thousand live births

World’s infant mortality rate is 49 U.S. infant mortality rate is 6.6 Low-income countries vary from a high of 163

to a low of 29

The Low-Growth North

North America and Western Europe Zero population growth-level of reproduction

that maintains population at a steady state High cost of raising children Contraceptives Delayed marriage Both partners in labor force High income countries losing population

The High-Growth South

Population growth is a major problem for poor nations High birth rates and declining death rates Account for 80% of the planet’s people Culture and the status of women

Explaining Population Growth

The pessimists: the New MalthusiansExponential growth curve

The optimists: the Anti-MalthusiansDemographic transitionPopulation shrinkage

Explaining Population Increase: Malthusian Theory Robert Malthus (1798-1834) – English

economist, clergyman and pioneer demographer

Populations grow in a geometric pattern Food supplies grow in an arithmetic pattern Population growth would exceed the available

supply of food, the result being starvation and war

A More Recent Approach: Demographic Transition Theory

Thesis linking demographic change to a society’s level of technological development

Population is affected by four levels of technological development

A More Recent Approach: Demographic Transition Theory

Stage 1 – Pre-industrial society is associated with high birth rates and high death rates, very little or no growth

Stage 2 – Early industrial society is associated with the onset of demographic transition, high births and declining deaths

Stage 3 – Mature industrial society is associated with decline in births and deaths and a slow down in growth

Stage 4 – Postindustrial society is associated with low births and deaths with little or no growth

•Sitting on the shoulders of the New Malthusians Land taken through urban sprawl represents less food production,

further sealing the fate of the world’s malnourished

•Sitting on the shoulders of the Anti-Malthusians We are in no danger of running out of farmland

•Despite the billions of people who have been added to the earth’s population, more food is available per person now than in the past.

The Scope of the Problem

•Symbolic interactionism Why do the poor have so many children?Taking the role of the other

•Seeing things from another person’s perspective

– In Least Industrialized Nations, people’s identities center on their children.

– Most live in small communities with shared identity and culture.

– Children are economic assets

Looking at the Problem Theoretically

FunctionalismCatastrophes are functionalModern medicine and public health: latent

dysfunctionsPopulation pyramidsDoubling timesLatent dysfunctions: unintended

consequences

Conflict theoryFocus on the global distribution of power

and resourcesPower and profitsFood politics: controlling food production

to control food prices

Problems in forecasting population growthDemographers’ predictions

Changes in the U.S. BirthrateImmigrants offset low birthratesDo immigrants pay their way?

The Anti-MalthusiansCountry will have enough space, industry, and food to meet needs

The New MalthusiansU.S. does have a population problem

The Anti-MalthusiansAmericans do contribute to the Earth

Objective conditions versus viewpointsClashing views of Malthusians highlight relevance of symbolic interactionism

Does the United States Have a Population Problem?

• The New Malthusian viewpoint The pessimistic view: exhausting the world’s resources is inevitable

• High food prices• More famines• Riots, revolutions, and repression

• The Anti-Malthusian viewpoint The optimistic view: the future is what we make it

• Technology and abundance– Biotech society– Designer animals

The fourth stage of the demographic transition: the coming population shrinkage

Unbalanced stages and global upheavalPronatalist policies: unlikely social policies can have more than a

short-term effect on a country’s fertilityThe role of immigrants

Which will it be?Appears that the world has potential to meet nutritional needs, but

requires that Most Industrialized Nations cooperate to meet the challenge

Perhaps they will rise to the occasion

The Future of the Problem