View
213
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Â
Citation preview
International Cash Management
21Chapter
South-Western/Thomson Learning © 2006 Slides by Yee-Tien (Ted) Fu
21 - 2
Chapter Objectives To explain the difference in
analyzing cash flows from a subsidiary perspective versus a parent perspective;
To explain the various techniques used to optimize cash flows;
To explain common complications in optimizing cash flows; and
To explain the potential benefits and risks of foreign investments.
21 - 3
Cash Flow Analysis:Subsidiary Perspective
• The management of working capital has a direct influence on the amount and timing of cash flow.
• Subsidiary expenses – It is difficult to forecast the payments for international purchases of raw materials or supplies because of exchange rate fluctuations, quotas, sales volume volatility, etc.
21 - 4
• Subsidiary revenue – International sales may be more volatile than domestic sales because of exchange rate fluctuations, business cycles, etc.
• Subsidiary dividend payments – If the payments and fees (royalties, overhead charges) for the parent are known and denominated in the subsidiary’s currency, forecasting cash flows will be easier.
Cash Flow Analysis:Subsidiary Perspective
21 - 5
Subsidiary Liquidity Management• After accounting for all cash outflows and
inflows, the subsidiary must either invest its excess cash or borrow to cover its cash deficiencies.
• If the subsidiary has access to lines of credit and overdraft facilities, it may maintain adequate liquidity without substantial cash balances.
Cash Flow Analysis:Subsidiary Perspective
21 - 6
Centralized Cash Management• While each subsidiary is managing its own
working capital, a centralized cash management group is needed to monitor, and possibly manage, the parent-subsidiary and intersubsidiary cash flows.
• International cash management can be segmented into two functions:¤ optimizing cash flow movements, and¤ investing excess cash.
21 - 7
Cash Flow of the Overall MNC
Fees & EarningsExcess Cash
Fees & EarningsExcess Cash
Interest &/or Principal
Loans or Investment
Interest &/or Principal
Loans or Investment
Subsidiary
Subsidiary
Funds forSupplies
Sale
Return onInvestment
Sourcesof Debt
Stock-holders
Loans
New Issues
Cash Dividends
Repayment
Short-TermSecurities
Long-TermProjects
Purchase
Long-TermInvestment
Parent
21 - 8
Centralized Cash Management• The centralized cash management division
of an MNC cannot always accurately forecast the events that affect parent-subsidiary or intersubsidiary cash flows.
• It should, however, be ready to react to any event by considering¤ any potential adverse impact on cash
flows, and¤ how to avoid such adverse impacts.
21 - 9
Techniques to OptimizeCash Flows
Accelerating cash inflows• The more quickly the cash inflows are
received, the more quickly they can be invested or used for other purposes.
• Common methods include the establishment of lockboxes around the world (to reduce mail float) and preauthorized payments (charging a customer’s bank account directly).
21 - 10
Minimizing currency conversion costs• Netting reduces administrative and
transaction costs through the accounting of all transactions that occur over a period to determine one net payment.
• A bilateral netting system involves transactions between two units, while a multilateral netting system usually involves more complex interchanges.
Techniques to OptimizeCash Flows
21 - 11
Intersubsidiary Payments Matrix & Netting Schedule
21 - 12
Managing blocked funds• A government may require that funds
remain within the country in order to create jobs and reduce unemployment.
• An MNC can shift cost-incurring activities (like R&D) to the host country, adjust the transfer pricing policy (such that higher fees have to be paid to the parent), borrow locally rather than from the parent, etc.
Techniques to OptimizeCash Flows
21 - 13
Managing intersubsidiary cash transfers• A subsidiary with excess funds can
provide financing by paying for its supplies earlier than is necessary. This technique is called leading.
• Alternatively, a subsidiary in need of funds can be allowed to lag its payments. This technique is called lagging.
Techniques to OptimizeCash Flows
21 - 14
Complicationsin Optimizing Cash Flows
Company-related characteristics¤ When a subsidiary delays its payments to
the other subsidiaries, the other subsidiaries may be forced to borrow until the payments arrive.
Government restrictions¤ Some governments may prohibit the use of
a netting system, or periodically prevent cash from leaving the country.
21 - 15
Characteristics of banking systems¤ The abilities of banks to facilitate cash
transfers for MNCs may vary among countries.
¤ The banking systems in different countries usually differ too.
Complicationsin Optimizing Cash Flows
21 - 16
Investing Excess Cash
• Excess funds can be invested in domestic or foreign short-term securities, such as Eurocurrency deposits, Treasury bills, and commercial papers.
• Sometimes, foreign short-term securities have higher interest rates. However, firms must also account for the possible exchange rate movements.
21 - 17
Short-Term Interest Ratesas of February 2004
21 - 18
Centralized Cash Management• Centralized cash management allows for
more efficient usage of funds and possibly higher returns.
• When multiple currencies are involved, a separate pool may be formed for each currency. Funds can also be invested in securities that are denominated in the currencies needed in the future.
Investing Excess Cash
21 - 19
• Given the current online technology, MNCs should be able to efficiently create a multinational communications network among their subsidiaries to ensure that information about their cash positions is continually updated.
Investing Excess CashCentralized Cash Management
21 - 20
Determining the Effective Yield• The effective yield on foreign investments
r = (1 + if )(1 + ef ) – 1
where if = the quoted interest rate on the investment
ef = the %∆ in the spot rate
Investing Excess Cash
• If the foreign currency depreciates over the investment period, the effective yield will be less than the interest rate.
21 - 21
Implications of Interest Rate Parity (IRP)• A foreign currency with a high interest
rate will normally exhibit a forward discount that reflects the differential between its interest rate and the investor’s home interest rate.
• However, short-term foreign investing on an uncovered basis may still result in a higher effective yield.
Investing Excess Cash
21 - 22
Use of the Forward Rate as a Forecast• If IRP exists, the forward rate can be used
as a break-even point to assess the short-term investment decision.
• The effective yield will be higher than the domestic yield if the spot rate at maturity is more than the forward rate at the time the investment was undertaken.
Investing Excess Cash
21 - 23
Use of the Forward Rate as a Forecast
21 - 24
Use of Exchange Rate Forecasts• Given an exchange rate forecast, the
expected effective yield of a foreign investment can be computed, and then compared with the local investment yield.
• It may be useful to use probability distributions instead of point estimates, or to compute the break-even exchange rate that will equate foreign and local yields.
Investing Excess Cash
21 - 25
Deriving the Value of ef that Equates Foreign and Domestic Yields
r = (1 + if )(1 + ef ) – 1⇒ ef = (1 + r ) – 1
(1 + if )
• r = 11%, if = 14% ⇒ breakeven ef = -2.63%.If the foreign currency depreciates by less than 2.63%, the foreign currency deposit will be more rewarding.
Investing Excess Cash
21 - 26
Use of Probability Distributions
21 - 27
Probability Distribution of Effective Yield
21 - 28
Diversifying Cash Across Currencies• If an MNC is not sure of how exchange
rates will change over time, it may prefer to diversify its cash among securities that are denominated in different currencies.
• The degree to which such a portfolio will reduce risk depends on the correlations among the currencies.
Investing Excess Cash
21 - 29
Use of Dynamic Hedging to Manage Cash• Dynamic hedging refers to the strategy of
hedging when the currencies held are expected to depreciate, and not hedging when they are expected to appreciate.
• The overall performance is dependent on the firm’s ability to accurately forecast the direction of exchange rate movements.
Investing Excess Cash