Change Drivers

7/29/2019 Change Drivers

1/19

Change Drivers in

Organization Development
http://people.cornell.edu/pages/jo24/indexfolder-2/hammer-anim.gif


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Change Drivers environment globalism demographics technology information economics politics

complexity

Organizational Response: paradigm shift new psychological contract decentralizing downsizing telecommuting

virtual organization reengineering teamwork Learning Organization mergers/acquisitions

strategic alliances target marketing out-sourcing temps innovation

Demands timeliness (JIT) efficiency speed quality

customized rate of change

Worker Impact lifelong learning adaptability/flexibility networking

self-loyalty

Competition !


3/19

They way it used to be

1- 4 employers 1- 2 careers 42-year working life lifetime job security

6- 10 employers 3- 5 careers 50-year working life new psychological contract

and now


4/19

The old psychologicalcontract

Employer: I will provide secureemployment (unless you really

screw up)

Worker: I will provide consistent &loyal work

The new psychological contract

Employer: I will provide you with an opportunity to bring value to theorganization and keep you so long as you continue to bring value

Worker: I will stay so long as I am provided what I need & dont findsomething better


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7/19

Creative Destruction: slubber doffers, depaters, & toerags

Job Destruction Employment Today Employment PastRailroad (1920)

Carriage makers (1900)

Telegraph operators (1920)

Cobblers (1900)

Watchmakers (1920)

231,000


8/19

Environmental change driverslimited resources

only .5% of worlds available water is fresh & accessible

54% of available freshwater is currently being used by

6.1 billion people

half the population lives in unsanitary conditions

since 1950, the amount of irrigated land has tripled

70% of worlds drylands have soil degradation (over cultivated, over-grazed, improperly irrigated, erosion, monoculture, deforestation)

decreased space for trash (200 million tons/day in US); 29 million T

of hazardous waste each year

ocean pollution (60 million gallons oil; Mississippi R has 4000 Sq.

miles of dead water around LA and TX; toxic bacteria levels)

70% of worlds oceans are overexploited (90% reduction in tuna)

global warming & flooding (1-3.5 C by 2100)

decrease in biodiversity (by 2040 2/3 of all species extinct EPA)


9/19

The Technology change driver

What the takes the average person 1

day to do now, took 3 days in 1950, 1 monthin 1800, lifetime in 1600

In 1900 85% of workers were in agriculture (now 3%), in 1950 73%

were in manufacturing (15%), now service & knowledge workers

Moores Law: chip capacity double every 6 months while price stays

the same

current annual growth rate of Internet is 100%

worldwide: 500m voicemail boxes, 110m fax machines, 600 email

users, over 500 million computers worldwide

artificial intelligence is expected to affect 60-90% of jobs,augmenting, displacing or eliminating workers

in the next five years people in the industrial world will be doing jobs

differently from the past 50 years

with innovation, everything goes back to zero


10/19

Buy American-Owned

Alka SeltzerAlpo Dogfood

Aim ToothpasteBaskin Robbins IcecreamBactine AntisepticBall Park FranksBayer AspirinPic Pens, Lighter, Razor

Burger KingCapitol RecordsCBS RecordsChesterfield CigarettesChristian Brothers wineDiamond Stick MatchesDove Soap

Dunlop TiresEverReady BatteriesEureka Vacuum CleanersFirestone TiresFour Roses WhiskyFrenchs MustardFrigidaire Appliances

Friskies & Might Dog foodGlidden Paint

Goodyear Tire & RubberGood Humor IcecreamGreen Giant VegetablesHumpty Dumpty MagazineHires Root BeerHills Brothers Coffee

Hungry Jack PancakesImperial MargerineInstant Potato MixIndian Head TextilesJenos PizzaKelvinator AppliancesKnox Gelatine

Kool CigarettesKeebler CookiesLibbys FruitsLifebuoy SoapMagnavoxMassey-Ferguson TractorsMaxell Tapes

Michelin TiresMr. Coffee

Norelco AppliancesNescafe CoffeeNew Yorker HotelOvaltine Drink MixOne-A-Day VitaminsPanasonic

Pearle Vision CenterPepsodent ToothpastePillsbury Cake MixNestle Quik Chocolate MixQuasar TelevisionRay-O-Vac BatteriesRona Barrets magazine

Seven Seas Salad DressingShell OilStandard OilStouffer Frozen FoodsTappan AppliancesValium TranquilizersZig-Zag Cigarette Papers


11/19

US has 280 million consumers, 330 in

EC, billion in China

Of the top 50 world banks, only three

US banks hold 13-15th place

20-40% unsuccessful repatriation

Increasing workforce diversification: one

LA company conducted orientation in 17languages

African American purchasing power will

increase 55% in each of next two

decades

cultural diversity demonstrates many

ways to work and manage

Globalization the new marketplace


12/19

Complexity the number of elements, theirinterrelationships, and degree of

change in either

Revenge effects: the best intended quicksolutions often create more or worse problems

long term

Forecasting: strategic planning based on thepast are probably useless in a turbulent and

complex future Personality: some people are more creative, tolerant of ambiguity & risk,

and adaptive to change

Butterfly effect: small changes can have large and unexpected effects

Computer simulations using systems theory are more capable of

modeling complex systems

Reengineering: increased role complexity, ambiguity, & overload,multitasking

Constant change, growth, reorganization
http://faculty.css.edu/dswenson/web/revenge.htmhttp://faculty.css.edu/dswenson/web/revenge.htm


13/19

Unemployment rates opportunities for relocation

1 billion workers are un- (150m) or underemployed worldwide

by 2010 Asia will account for 60% of the worlds population 1999-2050 US adds about million workers each year


14/19

20-30% of the elite skilledworkforce changes jobs every

year 69% believe it is acceptable to

change jobs every 5 years

40% believe that for under age 30should change jobs every 2-3years

14% are proud of their company

30% remain loyal

Working Woman identifies 32desired family-friendly benefits

Increased preference for flex,family and personal time andindependence (alt scheduling by25% employers)

Southwestern Air receives 3,000

online resume a month

Institute of Personnel and Development, April 2000

The changing workforce


15/19


16/19

DownsizingChange Drivers Mergers & Acquisitions Avoid bankruptcy

Prepare for privatization Reduce costs to remain competitive

Goals Reduce expenses (46%) Increase profits (32%)

Improve cash flow (24%) Increase productivity (22%) Increase ROI (21%) Increase competitive advantage (19%) Reduce bureaucracy (17%) Improve decision making (14%)

Increase customer satisfaction (14%) Increase sales (13%) Increase market share (12%) Improve product quality (9%) Advance technology (9%) Increase motivation (7%)

Avoid takeover (6%) Wall Street Journal, 6-6-91


17/19

Demographic change drivers

60-70% of Boomers plans to work past age 65(and 20+ hours/week in retirement)

by 2050 18-31 million will be older than 85

25% of Americans 35-54 have saved


18/19

Vision: its not just imagining some future

picture; its seeing and understanding thedynamic forces that shape that place and

positioning yourself for the possibilities

Current

MarketplaceEnvisioned

FutureEconomy

Technology

Demographics

Information

Globalism

Competition

Politics

Environment


19/19

Growth of theKnowledge Worker

The weekly edition of the NY Times has more information than a personwould come across in a lifetime in 17th Century England

There has been more information produced in the last 30 years than thepreceding 5,000

It takes 3-5 years for 50% of worker skills to become obsolete

Japanese students receive 240 days/year compared with 180 US

Japanese workers get 6x the training as US workers (300 hrs/6 mo) All information doubled about every 5 years; in some fields 6 months

More Americans work in biotechnology than in the entire machine toolindustry

About 75% of a products cost is determined at the conceptual stage

Developed countries spend 28-30% of GNP on knowledge

The ability to learn faster than your competitors

may be the only sustainable competitive advantage--Arie de Geus, Head of Planning, Royal Dutch Shell

Documents

Change Drivers