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Australian Population Association 2018 conference program
Thank you to our sponsors!
IMPORTANT INFORMATION TO HELP YOU ENJOY THE CONFERENCE
· Talks are strictly of 20 minutes duration followed by 5 minutes of questions to be managed by session chairs
· A 20 minute talk usually means around 10-15 slides
· Underlined names indicate the nominated speaker(s)
· Your presentation must be pre-loaded by providing them to the AV technicians next to the registration desk. This desk will ONLY be staffed from 14:00-17:00 on Tuesday 17 July and from 08:00-09:00 on each day of the conference
· Alternatively you can email your presentation to [email protected] for pre-loading. The cutoff for sending presentations is COB 13/7. Pre-loaded presentations cannot be changed
· Session chairs please be on hand prior to the start of your session to assist speakers in making sure presentations are loaded and working
While you are here why not explore the many amazing attractions of Australia’s Top End! See here for some ideas https://northernterritory.com
Useful information
Conference Coordinator – Kaye Gwyther: ph. 0427 389 213
Conference Organiser – Andrew Taylor: ph. 0403 127 958
Darwin Convention Centre – ph. (08) 8923 9000
Taxis – ph. 13 10 08 or 13 82 94
Other transport – As well as taxis, Darwin has limited bus services and the ride share company “Hi Oscar”. It does not have Uber ride share.
Free conference wi-fi
User: DCC_WLAN_FREEWIFI
Password: xirrus0123
CONFERENCE PROGRAM – Current at 0530, 18 July 2018
Tuesday 17th July
14:00-17:00
Registration and speakers presentation receiving desks open
Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Wednesday 18th July
09:00-09:35
Conference Welcome and opening (registration desk open 08:00 to 16:00, Speakers presentation receiving desk open 08:00 to 09:00)
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Welcome - Andrew Taylor
Welcome to Country – Richard Fejo
Welcome from the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, the Honourable Michael Gunner MLA
Official conference opening – Professor Simon Maddocks, Vice Chancellor and President, Charles Darwin University
Housekeeping – Andrew Taylor
09:35-10:20
Plenary 1 – facilitated by Andrew Taylor
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Modern Romance? Cohabitation and the Remaking of the Family
Professor Sharon Sassler, Cornell University
10:20-10:50
Morning tea
Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Wednesday 18th July
10:50-12:30
Concurrent sessions 1
1a: Northern Territory Demography Meeting Room 1
Chair: Anita Maertens
1b: Marriage and Partnering
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Fiona Shalley
1c: Mortality, Fertility and Wellbeing
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Denise Carlton
1d: Topics in Chinese Demography
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Francis Seltzer
The Northern Territory’s 2016 working population – who is in it? And how has it changed in the past ten years?
Tony Barnes
Opportunity, freedom and time - how to sell Darwin as a place to live
Anna Goat
Who stays and who goes from sparsely populated areas? The case of the Northern Territory
James Thurmer
Patterns of Asian intermarriage in Australia
Ann Evans & Edith Gray
Intermarriage in Australia: patterns and changes by ancestry
Qing Guan & Kim Xu
International marriage and domestic marriage differentials in China: gendered patterns and solidarity of the unions
Shenghan Cai & Fei Guo
Estimating mortality for UK ethnic groups – method validation and impact assessment
Pia Wohland & Phil Rees
First generation births in Australia since 1981: which regions have benefitted and by whom?
Bernard Baffour, Ann Evans, Edith Gray & James Raymer
Opportunity cost of childbearing and women’s fertility intention in urban China under the new “two-child” policy
Yuanyuan Duan & Fei Guo
Sexual behaviour typologies in the context of the HIV epidemic: socio-demographic determinants in rural South Africa 2010-2011
Brian Houle, Shao-Tzu Yu, Nicole Angotti, Enid Schatz, Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, Xavier Gómez-Olivé, Jane Menken & Sanyu Mojola
Demographic dividend and the economic miracle in China
Xin Yuan & Yuan Gao
Study on the family orientation of the floating population and its influence on employment and residence
Wang Jinying & Hao Junkai
Impact of urbanisation on the changing of rural and urban age structure in the future in China
Meng Xiangjing & Jiang Kaidi
The influencing factors of population spatial distribution in northwest China
Ruihua Mi
12:30-13:30
Lunch
Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Wednesday 18th July
13:30-15:10
Concurrent sessions 2
2a: Internal Migration
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Angelique Parr
2b: Subnational Population Projections
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Simone Alexander
2c: Immigrant Populations in Australia
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Brian Houle
2d: Mortality, Health and Wellbeing
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Ann Evans
Comparing internal migration in the countries of Asia: patterns and progress
Elin Charles-Edwards, Martin Bell, Aude Bernard & Yu Zhu
Internal migration and education in Indonesia: what is their relationship?
Salut Muhidin
Educational selectivity of internal migration: a global assessment of 68 countries
Aude Bernard & Martin Bell
Using machine learning to forecast population
Kim Johnstone & Peter Chiu
The shelf life of subnational projections, from Australia to England
Ludi Simpson, Tom Wilson & Fiona Shalley
Creating subnational population forecasts for multiple geographies: existing and new approaches
Tom Wilson
Effective ways of communicating population forecast uncertainty
Fiona Shalley & Tom Wilson
Social and economic outcomes of the first generation migrants: a comparison of the four largest Asian ethnic groups in Australia and the United States
Fei Guo & Van Tran
Measuring the spatial integration of the Chinese-born population in Australia, 1981-2016
Qing Guan
African-born people in Australia: what the 2016 Census tells us
Ingrid Tejada & Lev Makaev
Intergenerational occupational mobility of Asia-born immigrants in Australia
Sheruni De Alwis, Nick Parr & Fei Guo
Decomposing the sex-gap in life expectancy: an extended method
Qi Cui, Heather Booth & Vladimir Canudas-Romo
Risky health behaviour of young people in Greater Jakarta: smoking, alcohol, and drug use
Iwu Dwisetyani Utomo, Peter McDonald, Vu Son, Terence Hull & Ariance Utomo
Is disability in the oldest-old compressed or not? A comparative study of birth cohorts born 10 years apart
Collin Payne, Zuyun Liu, Darce Costello, Ling Han, Matthew Dupre, Qiushi Feng & Thomas Gill
Maternal exposure to intimate partner violence and child health in India: Evidence of an association from NFHS-3
Santosh Jatrana
15:10-15:35
Afternoon tea
Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
15:35-16:45
Plenary 2 - Australia at Twenty Five Million: How did we get there and where to next? Facilitated by Denise Carlton
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2 (30 minutes plus 5 minutes of questions for each speaker)
· Australia at Twenty Five Million: How did we get there? Andrew Howe (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
· Australia at Twenty Five Million: Where to next? Tom Wilson (Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University)
18:00-21:00
Welcome function and Borrie Lecture - facilitated by Andrew Taylor
Crocosaurus Cove, 58 Mitchell St, Darwin City (www.crocosauruscove.com). Smart casual attire is welcome. Drinks and substantial cocktail food provided.
19:00-19:45 Borrie Lecture: Shifting Rural-Urban Boundaries: New patterns of spatial interdependence and inequality
Professor Daniel T. Lichter, Cornell University
Thursday 19th July
08:00- 09:00
Speakers presentation receiving desk open outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
09:00-09:45
Plenary 3 – facilitated by Ann Evans
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Population Ageing in Australia: Beyond the cities
Professor Peter McDonald, University of Melbourne
09:45-11:00
Concurrent sessions 3
3a: Indigenous Demography
Meeting Room 1
Chair: James Raymer
3b: Fertility in Australia
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Kim Johnstone
3c: Households, residency and families
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Aude Bernard
3d: Children’s Health and Mortality
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Fiona Shalley
Understanding the increase - Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander counts in the Census
Debbie Goodwin
How are we going to get there? The relationship between differentials in Aboriginal mortality and 'Closing the Gap'
Helen Ware
30 years of change in central Australian Indigenous employment
Peter Strachan
The contribution of repartnered fertility to TFR in Australia
Edith Gray & Ann Evans
Recent trends and the spatial distribution of fertility in New South Wales
Nick Parr
Explaining fertility change in Australia from 2005 to 2016
Peter McDonald and Helen Moyle
Changing household formation of young adults
Rachel Shipp
How many people experience homelessness?
James O’Donnell
Socio-demographic differences in the sources of work-family conflict for Australian mothers
Meg Kingsley
Child health and nutrition in the Pacific
Alison Culpin
A mother’s death and child survival: a comparative analysis of two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa
Brian Houle, Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, Kobus Herbst & Samuel Clark
Healthcare seeking behaviour for children among climate-induced displaced people in remote Bangladesh
Md Rabiul Haque, Nick Parr & Salut Muhidin
11:00-11:25
Morning tea
Ground floor foyer – Outside Meeting Rooms 1-4
Thursday 19th July
11:25-13:05
Concurrent sessions 4
4a: Using Administrative Data in Official Population Statistics
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Denise Carlton
4b: Workforce
Meeting Room 2
Chair: James O’Donnell
4c: Internal Migration in Australia
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Anita Maertens
4d: Regional and Local Population Change
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Nicole McNaughton
Using administrative data to inform previous address history: a comparison with the Census of Population and Housing
Ross Watmuff
Estimating internal migration using linked administrative data
Joshua Fairless (Stats NZ)
The potential for administrative data to assist in occupancy determination and person imputation in the Census of Population and Housing
Peta Darby
Population coverage studies of national administrative datasets
Warren Cote
The socioeconomic determinants of unpaid work in NSW
Marijan Jukic, Kim Johnstone, L. Ireland & D Sinclair
Who wants to go to work?
Jim Cooper & Jonathan Corcoran
The excessive working hours of young adults: evidence from Transition to Adulthood Survey in Greater Jakarta
Iwu Utomo & Muhammad Ulil Absor
Harnessing ethnocultural community knowledge to understand immigrant women entrepreneurship in Greater Darwin
Kate Golebiowska, Alicia Boyle & Ron Mitchell
Decline in internal migration levels in Australia between 1996 and 2016: composition or rate effect?
Sunganani Kalemba, Aude Bernard & Elin Charles-Edwards
Investigating the spatial structure of internal migration in Australia: connectivity, networks, and systems
Rosabella Borsellino, Elin Charles-Edwards, Aude Bernard & Jonathan Corcoran
Revealing the motivations for return migration in Australia
Angélique Parr
Subsequent migration of immigrants within Australia, 1981-2016
James Raymer & Bernard Baffour
Living in small towns - what does the Census tell us?
Kate Bond
Towns in Time - 35 years of data and stories about regional Victoria
David Sykes, Béatrice Derody & Mitchell Valentine
Highway to home: international migrant settlement in regional South Australia
Romy Wasserman & Fidelma Breen
Standin’ on a corner - are bypassed towns demographically doomed?Simone Alexander
13:05-14:05
Lunch and draw for the Cage of Death experience (Andrew Taylor)
Ground floor foyer – Outside Meeting Rooms 1-4
13:15-14:05
Australian Population Association general meeting
Meeting Room 1
Thursday 19th July
14:05-15:45
Concurrent sessions 5
5a: Health and Mortality in China
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Alison Culpin
5b: New Demographic Datasets
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Angelique Parr
5c: Official Population Statistics
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Nicole McNaughton
5d: Miscellaneous Demographic Topics
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Dianne Rudd
Health care and poverty reduction in China’s least developed rural areas in its recent rapid socioeconomic changes
Zhongwei Zhao & Mengxue Chen
A study on the changing trend of the major health indicators of the elderly in mainland China: 1998-2014
Lu Jiehua & Guo Ran
Inequality in health status between migrants and urban residents in Chinese cities
Sisi Yang & Fei Guo
The physically present population
Myles Burleigh
People come, people go: a new typology of regions based on the characteristics of visitors linking traditional and non-traditional data sources in Australia
Elin Charles-Edwards & Radoslaw Panczak
Youth Social Exclusion Index at small area level: exploring its relationship with cultural diversity
Riyana Miranti, Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama
The REPstats database for Religion, Education and Population statistics
Crichton Smith, Nick Parr, Nikola Balnave, Lucy Taksa & Brian Croke
A migrant or not? Estimating external migration using outcomes and kicking the passenger card habit
Joshua Fairless (Stats NZ)
A richer picture of regional population change - the component-based approach
Hayley Sandercock
Estimating interstate migration: methods, challenges and results
Rachel Shipp
Measuring Census Coverage in Australia: Moving Beyond Net Undercount
Tony Barnes and Tania Mahoney
Immigration shaping Australian politics
Benjamin Krish
Beyond the city: geographical differences in religious identification from the big smoke to the outback
Stephen Reid
Skilled migration between developed economies: changes in labour market outcome profiles for Singaporean migrants in Australia, 2006-2016
Hannah Hia
Developing Population Data Analytical Capacity in Australia – recent developments in data linkage, secure remote access and data integration
Chris Radbone
15:45-16:05
Afternoon tea
Ground floor foyer – Outside Meeting Rooms 1-4
Thursday 19th July
16:05-16:50
Concurrent sessions 6
6a: Northern Territory Demography
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Edith Gray
6b: Demographic Forecasting Software
Meeting Room 2
Chair: James Raymer
6c: The demography of football and space
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Nick Parr
Populating the Territory - activating limited levers Ian Satchwell
The Northern Territory’s non-resident workforce – context, trends and implications
Anita Maertens
Demographic forecasting with POPGROUP
Ludi Simpson
New programs for regional population projections
Tom Wilson
A century of footballers: a microcosm of modern Australia
Andrew Howe
In the Digital Space: launching First Nations into space communities research
John Cokley
1630-1730
Cage of Death prize winners ‘receive’ their prize at Crocosaurus Cove
18:00-21:00
Conference dinner under the stars at Bicentennial Park, The Esplanade, Darwin City
Location: Opposite the Mantra on the Esplanade hotel - see map at the rear of this program. Smart casual attire is welcome. Drinks and three course meal provided.
Friday 20th July
07:30
Hugo Memorial Fun Run (organised by Ann Evans) – see map at the rear of this document
A 5km run or walk taking in the early morning Darwin sun and sights. Commences at the main entrance of the Darwin Convention Centre
08:00-09:00
Speakers presentation receiving desk open outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
09:15-10:00
Plenary 4 – facilitated by Andrew Taylor
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Beyond the City and Above the Circle: Population trends and human development in the Arctic
Associate Professor Andrey Petrov, University of Northern Iowa
10:00- 10:10
Announcement of the winner of the Australian Population Studies data visualisation competition (Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2)
Tom Wilson
10:10-10:35
Morning tea
Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
10:35-12:15
Concurrent sessions 7
7a: Health and Wellbeing
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Kate Golebiowska
7b: Applied Population Projections
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Angelique Parr
7c: Mortality and ageing
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Santosh Jatrana
7d: Population Ageing in South East Asia
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Iwu Utomo
Exploring moderating patterns of risk for behavioural and health issues among adolescents and adults who have experienced parental incarceration
Michael Roettger
Climate-induced displacement, impoverishment and health in mainland Bangladesh
Md. Rabiul Haque, Nick Parr & Salut Muhidin
Socio-demographic differences in the relationship between maternal work-family conflict and children’s mental health and behaviour in Australia
Meg Kingsley
What have we learned from examining long-term changes in temperature-mortality relationship?
Zhongwei Zhao, Edward Jow-Ching Tu & Yuan Zhu
How many Australians will have dementia in 40 years’ time? Challenges of projection modelling of chronic disease.
Laurie Brown
Projecting future demand for medically assisted fertility treatments
James Raymer, Qing Guan, Robert Norman, William Ledger & Georgina Chambers
Northern Territory population futures: Trends and projections
Hitesh Khanna
Cause of death decomposition of cohort survival comparisons: TCAL
Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Timothy Adair
Healthy life expectancy among elderly people in China: an estimation using multistate life table method
Guogui Huang & Fei Guo
The exploration of a method of making the life table in China
Li Jianxin, Liu Ruiping & Zhang Li
How long is expected to live for the Chinese elderly in “empty nest”?
Chen Wei, Duan Yuanyuan & Liu Jinju
Men’s role in caregiving of older adults: a comparative study of rural Indonesia and urban Singapore
Bina Gubhaju, Iwu Utomo & Abhijit Visaria
Ageing in rural Indonesia: health status, health behaviour and health care utilisation
Muhammad Absor
Physical Functioning among Older Persons in Indonesia
Evi Arifin & Aris Ananta
Distance Matters: Upward and Downward Exchange of Support between Elderly and Migrant and Non-migrant Children in Rural Indonesia
Nur Cahyadi
Friday 20th July
12:15-13:15
Lunch
Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
13:15-14:15
Tour of Darwin’s historic and secret WWII tunnels (entry is included in conference registration)
Darwin’s and northern Australia’s population size and composition have been heavily influenced historically by defence activities and jobs. Currently the Northern Territory has 7% of all of the Nation’s defence sector jobs, compared to 1% of the population.
During WWII Darwin was bombed more than 60 times. The giant tunnels of our tour bore blood, sweat and tears in the hope, in part, to end WWII. Located beneath the cliffs of Darwin city, just a short walk from the Darwin Convention Centre, a well-informed gate keeper provides historical information before your self-guided and interactive tour begins.
Entry cost is included with your conference registration. Meet outside the Darwin Convention Centre at 1300 sharp for the 200 metre walk to the secret tunnels.
If you are interested in learning more about Darwin and the Northern Territory’s war history, we thoroughly recommend the Royal Flying Doctor Service Darwin Tourist Facility on Stokes Hill Wharf. It is just a short walk from the Darwin Convention Centre (see http://www.rfdsdarwin.com.au). Reliving the bombing of Darwin Harbour in 1942 through the virtual reality exhibition is a ‘must do’ and the exhibit has won multiple international awards.
14:20-14:40
Conference Close – Facilitated by Ann Evans
Waterfront rooms 1 and 2
Closing session
14:40-15:10
Afternoon tea
Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Waterfront rooms 1 and 2, Level 2 Foyer - Main room Meeting Rooms 1, 2, 3 and 4 (Ground floor) – Concurrent Sessions
Level 2 Foyer
Morning and afternoon teas Wed & Fri
Lunch Wed & Fri
Meeting room 1
Meeting room 2
Meeting room 3
Meeting room 4
Ground Floor Foyer
Morning and afternoon teas Thurs
Lunch Thurs
Waterfront rooms 1 and 2
(Main room for opening and plenaries)
Conference dinner location – The Esplanade opposite Mantra on the Esplanade (while it says a 21 minute walk we anticipate 12-15 minutes at normal pace)
Walking map to Mantra on the EsplanadeLocation of conference dinner opposite the Mantra on the Esplanade
Conference dinner will include cocktails on arrival, a three course meal, premium drinks and entertainment
Hugo Memorial Fun Run route - 0730 on Friday 20 July (meet at the main entrance to the Darwin Convention Centre)