9UNIT 27 CHINA AS AN EMERGING POWER

Structure

27.1 Introduction

27.2 Emergence of Peoples Republic of China

27.3 Post-Cold War World and Uni-polarity

27.3.1 Chinas Military Capability

27.3.2 PLA Modernisation

27.3.3 PLA Structure

27.4 Chinas Economic Strength

27.5 Stability of China

27.6 Summary

27.7 Exercises

27.1 INTRODUCTION

About China, Napoleon had once said: It is a sleeping giant, let it sleep for if it wakes it wouldshake the world. Whether Napoleons prophecy has come out to be true or not is a matterof perception but one thing is certainly true that today Chinas presence is felt the world over.Political observers and analysts have been discussing and debating on the role of China ininternational politics and the status it has among the comity of nations. China has the largestpopulation in the world, approximately 1.5 billion people, according to the latest official census.It has the fourth largest territory-Canada, the United States and Russia being the only othercountries bigger in size. It has the biggest land army in the world. Today, its GNP per capitais second largest and it has maintained a growth rate of about 8 per cent for the last manyyears. However, to assess correctly Chinas potential of becoming a super power or even agreat power capable of threatening the only super power in todays world viz. the United Statesof America, it is necessary to understand a whole gamut of features and factors about Chinawhich would be done in this Unit

27.2 EMERGENCE OF PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

China is one of the oldest civilisations on this earth. For several centuries it remained isolatedfrom the rest of the world as it was self-sufficient in every respect. The Chinese political systemuntil the year 1911 was dominated by an emperor, who according to the Chinese ruled with themandate of heaven. In other words, the emperor was divine, he was son of God. They,therefore, conducted their international relations in a way which seemed very unusual andstrange to Westerners. All those who established any kind of relations with them had to paytribute to the emperor. Foreigners were considered barbarians as the Chinese consideredthemselves superior to outsiders. However, traders, monks, scholars and curious travellers hadvisited China and many have spent years there. Nonetheless, China remained an enigma tomany foreigners. It was only after Western colonialism began to spread its tentacles that Chinawas forced to become a part of the international system. After the Opium War of 1840 whenthe British, using what is called gunboat diplomacy, got the Chinese to open their ports for

10

trade, China had to sign a series of unequal treaties with almost all imperialist powers. Thesetreaties subjugated China to all European powers and later to Japan too. China remainedpolitically independent in the sense that no power took away the political sovereignty of Chinabut economically it was plundered by all-Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan-in differentways. An overwhelming part of Chinas resources were under the control of the variousimperialist powers. This was a matter of grave concern for all patriotic Chinese as this amountedto humiliation for the entire nation which was always a proud civilisation.

In the 20th Century, China witnessed far-reaching changes and experienced a massive transition.First, the monarchy and with it the emperor-system, came to an end in 1911. After that acultural renewal movement emerged which brought into existence a communist party. Led byMao Zedong, a peasant revolution with the support of a peasant army, brought liberation toChina in 1949. The communists finally defeated their compatriots namely the Nationalists, asthey were known. The latter fled to the island of Taiwan and established the government of theRepublic of China (henceforth ROC). The communists who had the mainland under theircontrol called it the Peoples Republic of China (henceforth the PRC).

Post-liberation China is chronologically divided into two periods i.e. the Mao period (from 1949to 1977) and the Reform period (1978 onwards). However, since its birth the PRC has beenan important player in the post-Second World War era. Although up until 1971, the PRCgovernment was not accepted as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council,the position was held by the ROC government. Diplomatic recognition by the United Statescame only in 1978. That same year the Chinese began to reform their system in the mostdramatic and totally unexpected ways. In less than three decades China has emerged as a bigpower in many respects. After the United States and Russia, it is undoubtedly the next powerfulcountry. However, to grasp the extent of Chinas power it is imperative for us to analyse somefactors. What is it that makes a nation a big power? Is it its military capabilities, its economicstrength or its political stability? In fact, it is all these factors in combination which bestowsa big power status to any country.

27.3 POST-COLD WAR WORLD AND UNI-POLARITY

As is known to all during the period of the Cold War i.e. from the end of Second World Warto the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the international scenario was dominated by the twosuper powers viz. the United States and the Soviet Union. Most countries of the world werepart of any one of the two blocs. (The Non-aligned countries claimed to belong to no bloc). Aslong as the PRC had cordial relations with the Soviet Union i.e. until the early 1960s, it saidthat it was part of the Socialist Bloc led by the Soviet Union. In the latter period when itsrelations with the Soviet state soured, the PRC claimed that it was part of the Third Worldwhich meant the nations of Asia (minus Japan), Africa and Latin America.

The end of the Cold War created a totally new scenario in the arena of international relations.The United States is the only super power unchallenged by any. Along with the process ofglobalisation that is going on in full strength a completely different world order is emerging andChina is making a valiant effort to have an effective presence in it. From all its policy statementsit is clear that China is opposed to a uni-polar world and supports multi-polarity because it isopposed to all forms of hegemony. In that sense the PRC poses a challenge to the only superpower-the United States. As Karmel has observed: A more confident but still authoritarianChina-a state that suppresses pluralism, brazenly markets its weapons to pariah states andaggressively pursues export-led growth strategies is even looked upon by some as a threat to

11

the United States. What we would try to see here is that can China be a potential threat tothe United States in the forseeable future.

27.3.1 Chinas Military Capability

It is beyond doubt that Chinas dramatically expanded military might and economic developmentmake the states of Asia and beyond feel threatened. While it is true that a lot of informationon the Chinese military is not available to the outside world but many studies have been doneon the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) by a number of scholars. In the followingpassages we would take up a brief discussion of the PLA to understand and analyse its rolein giving China the status of a big power.

Origins of the PLA

The PLA was formed in the year 1927 when the communists organised the poor peasants inthe remote areas of Southern China. Zhu De and Mao Zedong were the main organisers andin its early years it was called first the Eighth Route Army and then the New Fourth Army.The name PLA was given to it after the Japanese attacked China in 1937. In its early yearsmost of its recruits were poor peasants. The PLA fought the Japanese as well as the ChineseNationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek. There are many instances of bravery and courage that thePLA displayed to bring liberation to China. However, the peasant army used guerrilla tacticsto fight the enemy. Known as Peoples War, all military doctrine as well as strategy and tacticsfell under it. For Chinese communists the term people implied those who supported the CPCwhich includes workers, peasants and progressive sections of the middle classes. It had, therefore,a moral connotation-an army that fights for the people and not a state.

The People War doctrine remained an important component of Chinese communist ideologyeven in the post-liberation period as long as Mao Zedong was alive. The Chinese claimed thateven in case of a nuclear war they could defeat the enemy using Peoples War strategy. Thiswas reinforced by the fact that Chinese did not undertake any massive military modernisationprogramme due to the limited resources the state has at its disposal. Apart from Peoples War,the other principle that was accepted during the struggle for liberation was that of Partycommands the gun, which effectively means civilian control over the military. Having given somuch clout to the military in its struggle to liberate China, the CPC has always been wary oflosing its control over the army. There have been instances in post-liberation China when thearmy has been called to intervene in, what many would call a political dispute. To maintain itssupremacy over the PLA, the CPC has a Central Military Commission (CMC, earlier it wascalled the Military Affairs Commission) and it is chaired by the most powerful civilian leader.(At present Jiang Zemin is its Chairman). In 1997, the Chinese National Peoples Congress(Chinas parliament) passed the National Defence Law in which this Maoist principle of theParty controlling the gun has been stipulated.

27.3.2 PLA Modernisation

China has the biggest land army in the world. According to the International Institute forStrategic Studies the total number of troops is 2,840,000 of which the army has 2,090,000soldiers and the airforce, navy and strategic misile force have 470,000, 280,000 and 125,000respectively. In addition the Reserves comprise of 1,200,000 men and the Peoples ArmedPolice (a paramilitary body) have 800,000.

During the Mao period i.e. up to 1976 with the Peoples War doctrine upheld, a large army was

12

perceived as an asset. After Maos death when the CPC decided to modernise its military aspart of the Four Modernisations policy (which later on was called the Reforms under DengXiaoping) an oversized PLA is clearly a liability. This is so because a state needs lots ofresources to maintain so many soldiers as rations, uniforms, housing, healthcare, childrenseducation, entertainment etc. has to be provided. Moreover, regular training and exercises arealso necessary to keep the armys morale high. For a nation that has taken up a very ambitiousreforms programme a huge army is an expensive proposition. Troop reduction has thereforebecome an important issue for the Chinese at present. It has been officially announced that thenumber of troops would be reduced gradually and brought down to 2.5 million.

Since Reforms were initiated under Deng Xiaopings leadership, changes have occurred in themilitary doctrine. Deng Xiaoping talked about and then theorised the concept of Peoples Warunder Modern Conditions which gave the ideological justification for modernising the PLA.Deng realised that without professionalising the army and modernising the weaponry, Chinasgoal of becoming a developed country would be unachievable. Peoples War under modernconditions meant that in the event of a war guerrilla tactics would be first used against theenemy which would be drawn into Chinese territory and later it would be attacked with modernweaponry. Trapped inside Chinese territory it would not get an escape route and this wouldmake it either surrender or perish. This theory, however, did have a flaw. Once into Chineseterritory the enemy may destroy very important economic installations (factories, oil refineries,air ports, bridges etc.) which would put the economic development programme in jeopardy.After the Gulf War (1991), this concept was not much publicised mainly because this war wasfought decisively by the air force with no role for the army. In other words, it was clear to themilitary planners of China that in this day and age superior technology matters. This not onlyled to more stress on the technological advancement of the PLA but also brought about newthinking encapsulated in the doctrine of Modern Warfare under Hi-tech Conditions.

27.3.3 PLA Structure

The PLA land forces are divided into seven military regions namely Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou,Jinan, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu. No one knows how many soldiers are there in eachof these regions. It is, however, interesting to note that Chinas ground forces are not at alltowards any national border or potential battlefront. The army is intended more for maintaininginternal order engage in construction and relief activities and perform mainly domestic functions.It is estimated that as many as one million troops are stationed in Xinjiang (Sinkiang) provincewhich has seen terrorist activities grow in the last few years. However, according to anothersource 80,000 soldiers are stationed in the coastal Fujian province, probably to be engaged ina cross-strait military conflict, should it occur. Here it needs to be mentioned that gaining controlover the province of Taiwan has been the most crucial of Chinas policies.

Chinas navy is divided into East, South and North China Sea fleets. Since the Reforms whichled to a policy of Open Door, Chinas coastal areas have prospered far more than the interior.This has led to a new emphasis on the navy. However, this emphasis is also due to theperception of the importance of the sea as a strategic resource and battleground. As DengXiaoping had stated: Navies in the present era create great power, strong mobility, and thecapacity for worldwide intervention. In modern warfare, more than before navies are of substantialsignificance; their technological foundation, their position and use are increasingly prominent andimportant. The Chinese navy can be broken down by function into five categories: warship,submarine, marine, naval aviation and coastal defence force. Coastal defence forces are believedto have 29,000 soldiers, the marine corp of around 5,000 and the naval air force approximately25,000. In late 1985, the Naval Military Academic Research Institute was established to coordinate

13

and provide research and analysis for the formulation of naval strategy, operations and tactics.Modernisation of the navy has been undertaken rather seriously in the last two decades butmilitary analysts feel that it continues to face some crippling weaknesses. It has, for instance,too many old ships which need to be replaced by new ones with advanced technology. It is saidthat the bulk of Chinas naval ships are aging and in the process of going out of use. Keyequipment and ordnance for naval modernisation also appear to be beyond Chinas reach bothtechnologically and financially. The country has expressed its ambition to have blue water navybut most analysts feel that China is decades away from it. As far as naval ordnance isconcerned, China remains well behind the United States, Russia and Japan.

The Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) could not grow in the pre-reform period asthe Peoples war doctrine was extremely inhibiting. The air force is a capital-intensive branchof the armed forces which in order to be effective relies almost entirely on modern logistics,high technology, advanced and consistent training, and developed command and control systems.The present leaders of China do agree that the air force is the most important branch in amodernised defence establishment. Like the navy, the Chinese air force is third largest in theworld in terms of the size of its inventory. It may have more than 6,000 planes. Most of theseplanes, however, may be operational. The apparently huge size of Chinas outdated air forcesuggests that the emphasis is still on quantity rather than quality. Of course efforts are on toimprove quality as is indicated by new purchases and development programmes and formationof elite air force units. However, China is struggling to develop these elite units that require tobe trained to employ the newest hardware it is acquiring. The figures regarding how muchChina spends on its air force are not available but it is believed that the air force comprises anincreasing per centage of Chinas overall defence spending.

In addition to the army, navy and air force, the fourth branch of Chinas defence system is itsmissile force or Second Artillery. It is well known that maintenance of a missile force requiresthe services of a very well trained group of scientists and technicians. China exploded its firstatom bomb in 1964, and in 1967, its first hydrogen bomb was tested. Since then it has conductedseveral nuclear tests. Between 1956 and 1981, China developed its first generation of ballisticmissiles. Chinas strategic doctrine on the development of missiles and nuclear bombs appearsshrewd and realistic in comparison with its doctrines on the air force and navy. The developmentof a powerful nuclear missile is a very effective way to maintain a massive deterrent againstsuper power attack. Throughout the reform period the military strategists of China haveemphasised the importance of missiles in modern warfare.

Despite possessing laser guns, brilliant bombs, stealth fighter planes and nearly silent submarines,China has many technical, economic and political obstacles in implementing a new strategy. Asone author has remarked: Even if China develops the technical and economic capacity topromote military modernisation more quickly, leaders are afraid that a shift away from the rankand file and toward these high-tech goods might cause the Party to lose control over the gun.In other words, an oversized army and a not completely modernised navy and air force preventthe Chinese from posing a major threat to bigger powers like the United States and Russia.

27.4 CHINAS ECONOMIC STRENGTH

As is well-accepted, sheer military prowess does not make a nation a major power. A nationseconomic resilience is also an extremely important criterion to judge how important a role it can playin international affairs. The United States is the super power of this era because of a combinationof its military power, economic strength and domestic political stability. The former Soviet Union

14

did have enormous military prowess but could not maintain its economic strength, and politically,it is clear in retrospect, it was a very fragile nation-state. Hence when we assess the powerof a state we must take into account the all-round capabilities and not just one criterion.

In the year 2001, Chinas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at US$ 1.1 trillion and theaverage growth rate registered in the past twenty years has been 9 per cent. Indias currentGDP is around US $ 450 billion i.e. less than half of Chinas. Chinas foreign exchange reservesexceeded US $ 216 billion in 2001. Since its membership of the World Trade Organisation(WTO), the Chinese government is using it as a trigger to implement far-reaching and radicalreforms to globalise the economy. It is expected that by the year 2020, Chinas economy couldbe worth US $10 trillion. In the last thirty years, China has sustained investment rates of over35 per cent of GDP. In contrast, Indias rate of investment peaked at 26 per cent in 1996 andhas since declined to about 22 per cent in 2001. China sustains high rate of investment by highrates of domestic savings of around 40 per cent. In the 1980s, its population policy of one-childfamily has decreased the dependency ratio and raised the savings rate substantially. Highsavings have been invested in infra-structure and education to create the supporting environmentfor mass scale production.

Huge investments in infrastructure have created a national power grid with ample generatingcapacity, a national telecom system with the largest mobile network in the world and a nationalaviation system. In the last twelve years China has built over 19,000 kilometres of expresswaysand adds 3000 kilometres each year. India is still below the 1000 km mark in expressways.Urbanisation is taking place in China at a rapid pace as the belief is that economic developmentis basically about moving people from villages to cities. Urban productivity is four times of ruralproductivity. China is building around ten huge new cities that will house over ten million peopleeach.

Human capital formation is also one area China is working on. In the last twenty years therehas been tremendous progress. College enrolment in the 1980s was about 1.5 per cent of thetotal population. At present the enrolment ratio is 11 per cent which means that it has gone upby more than five times in about a decade. Nine-year education is universal. In most villagesthere is at least one nine-year secondary school. At the high school level i.e. the twelve yearschool the numbers enrolled are about seventy per cent of those leaving secondary school. Ruralfamilies are still reluctant to send their children to high school. About 11 per cent of high schoolgraduates go in for tertiary (or college) education. This is remarkable in contrast with Chinaspast and that of most other developing countries but if we compare it with that of the US andEurope, it is 50 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. China, therefore, is way behind. The shareof public education expenditure in the GDP has been declining in the last twenty years. Familieshave mainly borne the burden of their childs education.

Compared with India, most of the figures for China are impressive but in comparison with manyother Asian states China still has a long way to go. Even after twenty years of rapid economicgrowth China is still considered a poor country. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia havegiven their people a higher living standard than China has to its people. Moreover rapid growthhas, on the one hand, enlivened the stagnant economy of the 1960s and 1970s but on the other,has led to a host of problems which China is grappling with. From one of the most egalitariansocieties in the world it has become the most unequal in its distribution of income, wealth andopportunity. The disparities between the wealthy and the poor have increased massively. Apartfrom this there are various other problems that have resulted as a consequence of the reformsthat began in the late 1970s. These issues if not properly addressed may lead to major crisesin Chinese society. This indicates that there are question marks on the prospective social stability

15

of China. No nation can achieve a major power status unless it has domestic peace and stability.This brings us to the next criterion to judge Chinas big power status viz. political and socialstability.

27.5 STABILITY OF CHINA

This is a question that is being frequently asked by many scholars observing the growth ofChina. Being a big country China can perhaps absorb and neutralise many crises before it goesbeyond control. Nonetheless, many important issues have arisen in the last two decades whichneed to be addressed in such a way that China is able to sustain economic growth without anymajor dislocation to its social system. The primary objective of the reforms undertaken since1978 is to strengthen Chinas international position while retaining the authority of the Party. Theresults of the reforms include: glaring regional imbalances, noticeable sectoral imbalance,insurmountable ecological and environmental problems, exacerbated rural-urban divide, adverseimpact on minorities, women, the elderly, the disabled and so on. Reforms may have broughtmore wealth to Chinese society but its distribution has not been balanced. Three importantsections of Chinese society viz. workers, peasants and intellectuals have been affected by thereforms in a variety of ways. In the following section we discuss these.

Reform of the State-Owned-Enterprises (SOEs) has been a crucial part of reforms in the urbansector on the workers. This is having a noticeable negative impact. During the pre-reform(Maoist period), the SOE workers were a rather privileged group with guaranteed employment,social security, pension benefits etc., and received cradle-to-grave services from their workunits. The SOE reforms have worker-retrenchment at its core. In the last decade more than14 million workers have been laid off. Veteran permanent workers and retirees find theiremployment security, welfare benefits etc. in jeopardy. The working class is facing drasticdislocation. The total number of destitute workers nation-wide is estimated at 20 million. Thenewly emerging private sector and multi-national corporations together are in no position toabsorb all workers who have lost their jobs. As a result resistance-both passive and active-hasbecome visible and in the last few years many cases of violent workers protests have beenreported. Strikes as well as other methods of agitation have been followed to get the state tohear their voices. However, superior organisational force of the state has been able to forestallany major outbreak of violence. How long the state would be able to do so is a question manyask.

Reforms have led to rural discontent in several parts of China where peasants have expressedtheir anger often violently. Among the reasons for peasant unrest are high taxes, lowering ofgrain prices, losing land for industrialisation, pollution due to new factories, cultural and socialconflicts (for example, the state supports cremation of the dead but the custom is burial),corruption of officials and their abusive behaviour with peasants. Peasant protests have takena variety of forms: petitions, demonstrations, violent fights between peasants and Party cadres,riots, damaging state property, road blocks, holding officials captive, killing of cadres or police.Waves of peasant unrest occur in certain villages of different provinces and subside after sometime. These are mostly spontaneous, short-lived and not well organised. More often than not thetarget of these protests is not the state or the central government but the local officials and localgovernment. All forms of violence are swiftly curbed and sometimes proper corrective measuresare taken to pacify the peasants. For some period of time the regime may succeed in containingthe unrest in the countryside but a real threat to it may appear in the event of rural protestmovements linking up with their urban counterparts.

The creation of a market economy and opening to the outside world gave intellectuals and the

16

students of China, for the first time in the PRC, alternatives to government employment, eitherin the professions, non-state enterprises, foreign-joint ventures, or their own businesses, providinga degree of economic independence which gives them some protection from political retaliation.Equally significant is the fact that intellectuals can remain totally distant from political participationif they so desire. The party-state tolerates and even encourages an apolitical culture so thatintellectuals stay away from politics. Towards the end of the Century one witnessed differentintellectual currents in China. Highly placed academics called for more political reforms. Manydemanded civil and political rights along with economic rights. They believe that economicreforms cannot be sustained without political reforms and the only way to deal with risingunemployment, widening income gaps, pollution and corruption is to develop democracy. Agroup which tried to form a political party to challenge the Communist Party of China wasquickly repressed with all its leaders arrested.

The Chinese regime does not face any major or imminent threat from any of these groups-workers, peasants, and intellectuals-in the forseeable future. Nonetheless, there is an apprehensionthat an alliance between the three or even two of these may be potent enough to challenge theregime leading to chaos and instability. There is some evidence of underground alliances betweenworkers groups and disgruntled intellectuals and if they consolidate and come out in the openand a movement resembling that of Solidarity in the Poland of the 1980s, emerges on the scenethen it certainly does not augur well for the Chinese regime. In such an eventuality Chinasinternational image would also be negatively affected and if it has any big power ambitions thattoo would receive a setback. However, a positive scenario can also emerge. Genuine politicalreforms may take place which could create viable political institutions, lead to the rule of law,give China an independent judiciary, a free press and autonomous unions. Without a majorupheaval if China becomes more open and democratic, its path to becoming a great powerwould be less difficult to tread.

27.6 SUMMARY

The debate regarding Chinas great power status has had a variety of interpretations. Accordingto some scholars, China is a struggling developing country with high ambitions. To others, Chinais a rising or an emerging power which may, in the future, be powerful enough to threaten theUnited States, the way the Soviet Union did during the Cold War. But we all know retrospectivelythat the Soviet Union was internally a weak nation-state or else it would not have crumbled soeasily. The fate of the Soviet Union also teaches us that a mere military might is not a sufficientcondition for big power status; it may be a necessary condition, if at all. Japan is consideredan economic super power and plays an important role in world affairs but does not have astanding army.

China has always opposed the hegemony of super powers. It has never expressed the desireof becoming a super power or even a big power. China has, therefore, supported a multi-polarworld which will not be dominated by one super power. In this multi-polar world it wants to seeitself as playing a crucial role.

China has resented the fact that other nations, mainly in the Asian region, talk of a Chinathreat either directly or in a veiled form. This is being done to maintain unipolarity and preventChina from initiating the process of creating a multi-polar world and more importantly to preventChina from becoming a developed country, the Chinese believe. China has played a key rolein the formation of the Shanghai Five and signed with the four countries, Russia, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan, a treaty in 1996 which it called the first multi-lateral treaty to buildconfidence in the Asia-Pacific region. It is believed that Chinas main aim in having close

17

cooperation with the Central Asian countries is to have access to the energy supplies whichChina needs for its economic development programme.

With Russia, China has developed what is called a strategic partnership in the last few years.This is of vital importance to the PRC as it permits the PRC to security concerns to its eastand south and provides access to weapons which it can neither produce itself nor purchaseelsewhere. Most importantly it complicates the American attempts to isolate China on matterssuch as arms control, the inviolability of national sovereignty and Taiwan. The Chinese haveoften stated and worked towards expanding this strategic partnership to a strategic trianglein which along with Russia, India too would be a member. Some discussions at various levelshave been going on towards this direction but Indias enthusiasm for this has not been much.This triangle would be very clearly some kind of a counter to the United States which hasbecome the sole super power. Such attempts by the Chinese clearly indicate the PRCs senseof insecurity and self-perception that in the near future it cannot take on the United States.

Yet one more factor that is indicative of Chinas weakness vis-a-vis the US is the Taiwan issue.Taiwan is a province which was part of China since time immemorial. In 1949 when mainlandChina was liberated, the Jiang Kai-shek regime with American support settled there and sincethen the Communist Chinese have been claiming the island as part of their territory. Ideologically,the liberation of China is not complete without Taiwan. In the last fifty years tension hasdeveloped a few times on the Taiwan Straits but has not led to war. Unification with Taiwanhas been a pronounced objective of the PRC government as evident from all their documents,resolutions, statements, policy papers etc. China has said that it would prefer a peaceful andnegotiated settlement of the Taiwan issue but it does not rule out the possibility of using force.This statement is seen by observers as public posturing as China knows any attempt to forciblytake over Taiwan may have frightening consequences not just for China but the entire regionor may be even the whole world. China will not achieve big power status till it is able to getthe Taiwan dispute resolved in its favour.

At present China is completely involved in developing its economy. The underlying belief is thatonce it achieves a certain level of development, its military might would increase and politicalstability would be consolidated. At that point, it would be in a position to be considered a superpower, although by then, the US, Russia and other nations may also become more powerful.Also, we cannot ignore the point made above that speedy economic growth may lead to politicalinstability. China often behaves in such a way that others see a China threat. However, theseare signs of weakness and insecurity. Once China becomes politically and economically resilient,it would cease to make others feel threatened.

27.7 EXERCISES

1. Explain the structure of the PLA of China.

2. Describe Chinas economic strength.

3. What is Chinas position in the post-Cold War unipolar world?

4. What is your assessment of China emerging as a super power in the future?