Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math

8/10/2019 Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math

1/14

Conversions Value

insq/ftsq 144

m/yd 1.111

SQIN/SQ M 1600

sqft/sqm 10.764

Development in Toronto Downtown : Non-Residential GFAApplications received Jan 1, 2009 to Dec 31, 2013.

Area Square Metres Square Feet

Downtown and central waterfront 1,694,812 18,242,956

Other Mixed Use Areas 299,375 3,222,473

Source: Toronto City Planning, How Our City Grows, July 2014

www1.toronto.ca/Grow/grow-july2014.pdf

Location Square Feet Floors Source

First Canadian Place 2,700,000 62 Wikipedia

Commerce Court West 1,209,530 57 Commerce Court Website

Commerce Court North 238,441 32

Commerce Court East 163,073 5

Commerce Court South 91,561 13

Complex total 1,702,605

TD Bank Tower (rentable space) 1,332,667 56 TD Centre website

99 King W 973,513 46

100 Wellington W 514,769 3279 Wellington W 693,248 38

222 Bay (E+Y) 182,362 31

95 Wellington W 330,000 23

Retail T&D 150,000

Complex total 4,176,559

Retail % 3.59%

City of Toronto commercial tax rates 2014 % FractionCity tax 1.602303 0.01602303

Transit tax 0.002644 0.00002644

City total 1.604947 0.01604947

Education tax 1.292138 0.01292138

2.897085 0.02897085
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/Local%20Settings/Downloads/www1.toronto.ca/Grow/grow-july2014.pdfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/Local%20Settings/Downloads/www1.toronto.ca/Grow/grow-july2014.pdf


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Link

http://www.commerce-court.com/the-complex/overview/by-the-numbers

http://www.tdcentre.com/en/About/Pages/MoreFacts.aspx
http://www.commerce-court.com/the-complex/overview/by-the-numbershttp://www.tdcentre.com/en/About/Pages/MoreFacts.aspxhttp://www.tdcentre.com/en/About/Pages/MoreFacts.aspxhttp://www.commerce-court.com/the-complex/overview/by-the-numbers


3/14

Area Description 2014

Downtown New commercial ft sq

total value($k)

cumulative value

assessed value

full taxes:current year increment

IMIT tax incentive for current year constructionIMIT net tax incentive: current year total

net taxes

PV of taxes

Fraction attributed to new transit

TIF available

investment attributed to transit

Liberty Village New commercial ft sq

total value($k)

cumulative value

assessed value


IMIT tax incentive for current year construction

IMIT net tax incentive: current year total

net taxes

PV of taxes


TIF available


Donlands New commercial ft sqtotal value($k)

cumulative value

assessed value


IMIT tax incentive for current year construction

IMIT net tax incentive: current year total

net taxes

PV of taxes


TIF available


AS-SPENT VALUE OF TOTAL INVESTMENT ($K) $20,371,862

ATTRIBUTED TO TRANSIT

PV OF TOTAL TIF REVENUES ($k) $929,283

Data assumptions Abbreviation 2014


4/14

Discount rate disc 0.04

Current value cvalue 1

Tax rate tax 0.016049

Construction cost cc 365

Construction cost inflation rate i 0.02

Tax rate escalation rate deltatax 0

Fraction of downtown due to transit basetif 0.64Increment on above incr 0

Fraction of LV due to transit lvtif 0.64

Fraction of Donlands due to transit dptif 0.64

IMIT tax incentive rate imitrate 0.6

IMIT eligible share imitshare 0.4

Methodology, notes and assumptions:

Basic methodology: assume square footage of total commercial construction, calcul

All tax totals discounted to present value in 2014, using discount rate.

Municipal tax rate is set for four-year periods, based on current value as observed in

City of Toronto offers 10-year tax incentive (IMIT) for certain office and industrial bu

Tax is calculated as accumulated assessed value of new construction times current t

Construction totals (square feet) in this calculation are taken from Toronto Star opin

In downtown core, 12000000 square feet of new commercial space over 30 years,

In Liberty Village, 15,000,000 sq ft. over 30 years, built as one million square feet e

In Donlands, 15000000 square feet over 30 years, taken as one million square feet

Note: all construction and tax values in thousands of dollars

Major assumptions in table above

Discount rate: rate used to calculate PV of future tax flows

Current value: ratio of assessed value to current value. Discounted from as-spent vaTax rate: overall municipal tax rate. Set at current City of Toronto general commerci

Construction cost: cost per square foot of typical commercial construction for buildi

Inflation rate. Used for inflating construction cost.

fractions due to transit: downtown is basetif; Liberty Village lvtif; donlands dptif

IMIT tax incentive rate: the rate of tax incentive offered to projects eligible for IMIT

IMIT eligible share: the fraction of buildings eligible to receive the IMIT tax incentive.

How to change assumptions

Square footage: no automatic changes. Make new assumptions and paste into spre

Fraction attributed to transit: for downtown, change base tif and increment; for Lib

Construction cost per square foot: change base by changing cell D51Tax rate escalation: change tax rate escalation rate in cell D53.

Discount rate: change cell D48


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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000

$0 $161,196 $164,420 $167,708 $171,062 $174,484 $177,973

$0 $161,196 $325,616 $493,324 $664,386 $838,869 $1,016,843

$0 $148,920 $294,920 $493,324 $651,359 $806,295 $958,193

$0 $2,587 $2,639 $2,692 $2,745 $2,800 $2,856

$0 $621 $633 $646 $659 $672 $686$0 $621 $1,254 $1,900 $2,559 $3,231 $3,917

$0 $1,769 $3,479 $6,017 $7,895 $9,709 $11,462

$0 $1,454 $2,750 $4,573 $5,769 $6,822 $7,743

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$0 $931 $1,760 $2,927 $3,692 $4,366 $4,956

$0 $103,165 $105,229 $107,333 $109,480 $111,669 $113,903

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

$402,989 $419,270 $0 $436,209 $0

$402,989 $402,989 $822,260 $822,260 $1,258,469 $1,258,469

$372,300 $365,000 $822,260 $806,137 $1,209,601 $1,185,883

$6,468 $0 $6,729 $0 $7,001 $0

$1,552 $0 $1,615 $0 $1,680 $0

$1,552 $1,552 $3,167 $3,167 $4,847 $4,847

$4,423 $4,306 $10,030 $9,771 $14,566 $14,185

$3,635 $3,403 $7,622 $7,139 $10,234 $9,583

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$2,327 $2,178 $4,878 $4,569 $6,550 $6,133

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$402,989 $419,270 $0 $436,209 $0

$402,989 $402,989 $822,260 $822,260 $1,258,469 $1,258,469

$372,300 $365,000 $822,260 $806,137 $1,209,601 $1,185,883

$6,468 $0 $6,729 $0 $7,001 $0

$1,552 $0 $1,615 $0 $1,680 $0

$1,552 $1,552 $3,167 $3,167 $4,847 $4,847

$4,423 $4,306 $10,030 $9,771 $14,566 $14,185

$3,635 $3,403 $7,622 $7,139 $10,234 $9,583

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$2,327 $2,178 $4,878 $4,569 $6,550 $6,133

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024


6/14

1 0.923845426 0.90573081 1 0.980392157 0.961168781 0.942322335

0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605

395.1 403.0 411.0 419.3 427.7 436.2 444.9

te cost of construction, assume assessed value in year of in-service will equal construction cost, then assume

January of previous year. Therefore, taxes in second through fourth years are not based on current cost. Ad

ildings. Amount of incentive is calculated as fraction of tax for that year and is applied for 10 years, then subt

x rate minus impact of IMIT tax incentive.

ion piece, Oct. 14, 2014, by Arthur Lofsky

aken as 400000 square feet per year.

very other year.

every other year.

lue during later years of four-year current value period.ial rate, including only the City and transit portions and excluding the education portion which is not at the cit

gs over 30 stories. Cost is high end of range from 2014 Altus Construction Cost Guide for buildings in GTA ov

ax incentive (as % of total tax)

.

dsheet in rows 2, 15, 28

rty Village and Donlands, change fraction


7/14

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000

$181,533 $185,163 $188,867 $192,644 $196,497 $200,427 $204,435

$1,198,375 $1,383,539 $1,572,405 $1,765,049 $1,961,546 $2,161,972 $2,366,408

$1,107,113 $1,383,539 $1,541,574 $1,696,510 $1,848,408 $1,997,328 $2,366,408

$2,914 $2,972 $3,031 $3,092 $3,154 $3,217 $3,281

$699 $713 $727 $742 $757 $772 $787$4,616 $5,329 $6,057 $6,799 $6,935 $7,073 $7,215

$13,153 $16,876 $18,685 $20,429 $22,731 $24,983 $30,765

$8,544 $10,541 $11,222 $11,797 $12,622 $13,338 $15,794

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$5,468 $6,746 $7,182 $7,550 $8,078 $8,537 $10,108

$116,181 $118,505 $120,875 $123,292 $125,758 $128,273 $130,839

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

$453,832 $472,166 $0 $491,242 $0 $511,088

$1,712,300 $1,712,300 $2,184,467 $2,184,467 $2,675,709 $2,675,709 $3,186,797

$1,581,901 $1,712,300 $2,141,634 $2,099,641 $2,521,380 $2,471,941 $3,186,797

$7,284 $0 $7,578 $0 $7,884 $0 $8,203

$1,748 $0 $1,819 $0 $1,892 $0 $1,969

$6,596 $6,596 $8,414 $8,414 $10,306 $10,306 $12,275

$18,793 $20,886 $25,958 $25,284 $30,160 $29,367 $38,871

$12,208 $13,045 $15,590 $14,601 $16,747 $15,679 $19,955

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$7,813 $8,349 $9,977 $9,345 $10,718 $10,035 $12,771

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$453,832 $472,166 $0 $491,242 $0 $511,088

$1,712,300 $1,712,300 $2,184,467 $2,184,467 $2,675,709 $2,675,709 $3,186,797

$1,581,901 $1,712,300 $2,141,634 $2,099,641 $2,521,380 $2,471,941 $3,186,797

$7,284 $0 $7,578 $0 $7,884 $0 $8,203

$1,748 $0 $1,819 $0 $1,892 $0 $1,969

$6,596 $6,596 $8,414 $8,414 $10,306 $10,306 $12,275

$18,793 $20,886 $25,958 $25,284 $30,160 $29,367 $38,871

$12,208 $13,045 $15,590 $14,601 $16,747 $15,679 $19,955

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$7,813 $8,349 $9,977 $9,345 $10,718 $10,035 $12,771

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031


8/14

0.923845426 1 0.980392157 0.961168781 0.942322335 0.923845426 1

0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605

453.8 462.9 472.2 481.6 491.2 501.1 511.1

fraction attributable to transit and compute revenue available for TIF.

justment is made by deflating by rate of inflation in three years after rate set.

racted.

y's disposal.

er 30 stories. Base 2014 in cell D48. Subsequent years escalated at rate of inflation.


9/14

2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000

$208,524 $212,694 $216,948 $221,287 $225,713 $230,227 $234,832

$2,574,932 $2,787,626 $3,004,574 $3,225,862 $3,451,575 $3,681,802 $3,916,634

$2,524,443 $2,679,379 $2,831,278 $2,980,198 $3,451,575 $3,609,610 $3,764,546

$3,347 $3,414 $3,482 $3,552 $3,623 $3,695 $3,769

$803 $819 $836 $852 $869 $887 $905$7,359 $7,506 $7,656 $7,810 $7,966 $8,125 $8,288

$33,157 $35,496 $37,784 $40,021 $47,430 $49,807 $52,131

$16,367 $16,848 $17,244 $17,563 $20,013 $20,208 $20,338

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$10,475 $10,783 $11,036 $11,240 $12,809 $12,933 $13,016

$133,455 $136,124 $138,847 $141,624 $144,456 $147,345 $150,292

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

$531,736 $553,218 $0 $575,568 $0

$3,186,797 $3,718,533 $3,718,533 $4,271,751 $4,271,751 $4,847,319 $4,847,319

$3,124,310 $3,574,138 $3,504,056 $3,946,438 $4,271,751 $4,752,274 $4,659,092

$0 $8,534 $0 $8,879 $0 $9,238 $0

$0 $2,048 $0 $2,131 $0 $2,217 $0

$12,275 $14,323 $14,323 $16,454 $16,454 $18,671 $18,671

$37,868 $43,040 $41,915 $46,884 $52,105 $57,600 $56,105

$18,693 $20,428 $19,129 $20,574 $21,986 $23,370 $21,888

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$11,963 $13,074 $12,243 $13,168 $14,071 $14,957 $14,008

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$531,736 $553,218 $0 $575,568 $0

$3,186,797 $3,718,533 $3,718,533 $4,271,751 $4,271,751 $4,847,319 $4,847,319

$3,124,310 $3,574,138 $3,504,056 $3,946,438 $4,271,751 $4,752,274 $4,659,092

$0 $8,534 $0 $8,879 $0 $9,238 $0

$0 $2,048 $0 $2,131 $0 $2,217 $0

$12,275 $14,323 $14,323 $16,454 $16,454 $18,671 $18,671

$37,868 $43,040 $41,915 $46,884 $52,105 $57,600 $56,105

$18,693 $20,428 $19,129 $20,574 $21,986 $23,370 $21,888

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$11,963 $13,074 $12,243 $13,168 $14,071 $14,957 $14,008

2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038


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0.980392157 0.961168781 0.942322335 0.923845426 1 0.980392157 0.961168781

0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605

521.3 531.7 542.4 553.2 564.3 575.6 587.1


11/14

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045

400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000 400000

$239,528 $244,319 $249,205 $254,190 $259,273 $264,459 $269,748

$4,156,162 $4,400,481 $4,649,687 $4,903,876 $5,163,150 $5,427,608 $5,697,356

$3,916,445 $4,065,365 $4,211,365 $4,354,502 $4,494,833 $4,632,412 $4,767,293

$3,844 $3,921 $4,000 $4,080 $4,161 $4,244 $4,329

$923 $941 $960 $979 $999 $1,019 $1,039$8,453 $8,622 $8,795 $8,971 $9,150 $9,333 $9,520

$54,403 $56,624 $58,795 $60,917 $62,989 $65,015 $66,993

$20,408 $20,424 $20,391 $20,314 $20,198 $20,045 $19,861

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$13,061 $13,071 $13,050 $13,001 $12,927 $12,829 $12,711

$153,298 $156,364 $159,491 $162,681 $165,935 $169,254 $172,639

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

$598,821 $0 $623,014 $0 $648,183 $0 $674,370

$5,446,140 $5,446,140 $6,069,154 $6,069,154 $6,717,337 $6,717,337 $7,391,707

$5,132,020 $5,031,392 $5,497,020 $5,389,235 $5,847,846 $5,733,183 $6,185,050

$9,611 $0 $9,999 $0 $10,403 $0 $10,823

$2,307 $0 $2,400 $0 $2,497 $0 $2,598

$20,978 $20,978 $23,378 $23,378 $25,874 $25,874 $28,472

$61,388 $59,773 $64,847 $63,117 $67,981 $66,140 $70,795

$23,028 $21,560 $22,490 $21,048 $21,798 $20,392 $20,988

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$14,738 $13,798 $14,394 $13,471 $13,951 $13,051 $13,432

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000$598,821 $0 $623,014 $0 $648,183 $0 $674,370

$5,446,140 $5,446,140 $6,069,154 $6,069,154 $6,717,337 $6,717,337 $7,391,707

$5,132,020 $5,031,392 $5,497,020 $5,389,235 $5,847,846 $5,733,183 $6,185,050

$9,611 $0 $9,999 $0 $10,403 $0 $10,823

$2,307 $0 $2,400 $0 $2,497 $0 $2,598

$20,978 $20,978 $23,378 $23,378 $25,874 $25,874 $28,472

$61,388 $59,773 $64,847 $63,117 $67,981 $66,140 $70,795

$23,028 $21,560 $22,490 $21,048 $21,798 $20,392 $20,988

0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

$14,738 $13,798 $14,394 $13,471 $13,951 $13,051 $13,432

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045


12/14

0.942322335 0.923845426 0.90573081 0.887971382 0.870560179 0.853490371 0.836755266

0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605 0.01605

598.8 610.8 623.0 635.5 648.2 661.1 674.4


13/14

2046 2047 2048 Totals

400000 400000 400000 12,000,000

$275,143 $280,646 $286,259 6,539,404

$5,972,499 $6,253,145 $6,539,404

$4,899,530 $5,029,174 $5,156,275

$4,416 $4,504 $4,594

$1,060 $1,081 $1,103$9,710 $9,904 $10,103

$68,925 $70,811 $72,653

$19,647 $19,409 $19,148 441,393

0.64 0.64 0.64

$12,574 $12,422 $12,255 282,491

$176,091 $179,613 $183,206 4,185,218

1,000,000 15,000,000

$0 $701,614 $0 8,093,322

$7,391,707 $8,093,322 $8,093,322

$6,063,774 $6,509,159 $6,381,529

$0 $11,261 $0

$0 $2,703 $0

$28,472 $31,174 $31,174

$68,848 $73,294 $71,246

$19,626 $20,089 $18,777 505,306

0.64 0.64 0.64

$12,561 $12,857 $12,017 323,396

1,000,000 15,000,000$0 $701,614 $0 8,093,322

$7,391,707 $8,093,322 $8,093,322

$6,063,774 $6,509,159 $6,381,529

$0 $11,261 $0

$0 $2,703 $0

$28,472 $31,174 $31,174

$68,848 $73,294 $71,246

$19,626 $20,089 $18,777 505,306

0.64 0.64 0.64

$12,561 $12,857 $12,017 323,396

$20,371,862

$929,283

2046 2047 2048


14/14

0.8203483 0.804263039 0.788493176

0.01605 0.01605 0.01605

687.9 701.6 715.6

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Chow hacks away at Tory's SmartTrack math