CHP a Viable Alternative for Ohio

CHP a Viable Alternative for OhioA Manufacturers Point of ViewbyChris Lyons

General Questions to All Manufacturers

Solar Turbines has Extensive CHP ExperienceOver 14,000 Units Installed WorldwideOver 1.4 Billion Operating Hours Installations in 93 Countries


Overview of University Installed CHP ProjectsKent State UniversityUniversity of Cincinnati


Kent State University CHP Project1 x 5 MW GT w/ 100,000 lb/h HRSG1 x 7 MW GT w/ 32,000 lb/h HRSG1 x 500 Ton Absorption Chiller1 x 2000 Ton ST Drive ChillerProject Drivers: Replace older coal boilers, energy savings and security


University of Cincinnati CHP Project2 x 14 MW GT w/ 70,000 lb/h HRSG1 x 20 MW ST Project Drivers: Reliability, cost savings and emissions


Natural Gas Volatility is on DeclineSource = US DOE Energy Information AdministrationForecastSpark Spread = CHP Business CaseForecast Spark SpreadHistorical$/1000ft3 Cent kW-h

Sheet1

Date1967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Avg. Commercial Natural Gas Price$0.74$0.73$0.74$0.77$0.82$0.88$0.94$1.07$1.35$1.64$2.04$2.23$2.73$3.39$4.00$4.82$5.59$5.55$5.50$5.08$4.77$4.63$4.74$4.83$4.81$4.88$5.22$5.44$5.05$5.40$5.80$5.48$5.33$6.59$8.43$6.63$8.40$9.43$11.34$12.00$11.32$11.99$5.74$6.05$6.01$6.13$6.14$6.20$6.27$6.37$6.52$6.70$6.87$6.75$6.56$6.62$6.72$7.05$7.33$7.61$7.88$8.09$8.25$8.40

Avg. Commercial Retail Electricity Price2.12.12.12.12.22.32.433.53.74.14.44.75.56.36.977.137.277.27.087.047.27.347.537.667.747.737.697.647.597.417.267.437.927.898.038.178.679.469.6510.28$10.06$9.49$9.70$9.80$10.01$10.21$10.47$10.76$11.06$11.42$11.82$12.15$12.34$12.57$12.84$13.18$13.56$13.91$14.24$14.56$14.83$15.12

Gas Vs. Electricity Hist_Foreca

0.742.1

0.732.1

0.742.1

0.772.1

0.822.2

0.882.3

0.942.4

1.073

1.353.5

1.643.7

2.044.1

2.234.4

2.734.7

3.395.5

46.3

4.826.9

5.597

5.557.13

5.57.27

5.087.2

4.777.08

4.637.04

4.747.2

4.837.34

4.817.53

4.887.66

5.227.74

5.447.73

5.057.69

5.47.64

5.87.59

5.487.41

5.337.26

6.597.43

8.437.92

6.637.89

8.48.03

9.438.17

11.348.67

129.46

11.329.65

11.9910.28

5.737325668310.0566062927

6.04583215719.4927959442

6.00986671459.6976299286

6.13434171689.7992830276

6.137126922610.0109233856

6.198741912810.2070589066

6.271110534710.4726791382

6.37281274810.7565488815

6.51909494411.0629024506

6.700133800511.4211969376

6.868356704711.8150691986

6.74804115312.1518411636

6.556819915812.339392662

6.619869232212.5719156265

6.722784519212.8399705887

7.054139137313.1799583435

7.332981586513.5631008148

7.606761932413.9069223404

7.87656068814.2392530441

8.094784736614.5643100739

8.25270271314.8303852081

8.40255737315.1198101044

Avg. Commercial Natural Gas Price

Avg. Commercial Retail Electricity Price

Year


What will Future Electric Prices Be ?


Factors that Impact CHP EconomicsTypical 15 MW Fuel Bill =$6.6 millionTypical Purchased Electricity @$0.09/kwh=$ 10 million Typical cost = $0.5 millionTypical cost = $0.9 millionTypically 96% to 98%Typically $1200 to $1600/kW

Tornado Chart

Combined Heat & Power Tornado Chart

CHP Efficiency

Spark Spread

Availability

Initial Capital Expense

Maintenance

Utility Standby Charge

-25-20-15-10-50510152025

Variation in NPV, %

Note - input parameters were each varied +/- 5%.

Data

Tornado Chart Generation

NPV Variation

Parameter-5%0%+5%

Spark Spread, %202530

Availability, %9095100

CHP Efficiency, %71.976.981.9

Maintenance, $/year390.6372353.4

Cap Ex., $k10,2159,7299,243(5.0)

Standby Charge, $/kw/month3.6753.503.325

26.8126.8153.6

CHP Efficiency13,65319,19923,94771.1100124.728.89024.73

Spark Spread17,18319,19921,21489.5100110.510.50010.5021.0

Availability17,50519,19920,89291.2100108.88.8208.8217.6

Cap Ex.18,71319,19919,68597.5100102.52.5302.535.1

Maintenance19,03619,19919,36199.2100100.80.8500.841.7

Standby Charge19,06219,19919,33899.3100100.70.7100.721.4


Coke Oven Gas CHP in China


LFG CHP in South Carolina


Toledo Digester & LFG GTCC Plant


LA County 35 MW Digester Gas Plant CHP plant that has been operating for over 15 years


GenOn plans to deactivate 3140 MW of coal-fired generating capacity by 2015 GenOn expects to deactivate 3,140 MWs of coal-fired generating capacity in PJM between June 2012 and May 2015 because forecasted returns on investments necessary to comply with environmental regulations are insufficient. February 29, 2012Study: Closing Arizona coal plant could cost $18B February 29, 2012A new study from the Arizona State University L. William Seidman Research Institute projects that the closure of the Navajo Generating Station could have a dramatic economic impact on Arizona, according to the Phoenix Business Journal.The massive 2.25-gigawatt coal-fired power plant is the second-largest power plant in Arizona, behind only the Palo Verde nuclear plant, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.nFederal court rejects delay of coal-fired power plant's emissions controls

A federal appeals court has ruled that the owners of the San Juan Generating Station must continue with plans to install emissions controls. The 1,800 MW coal-fired power plant near Farmington, N.M. was ordered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency last fall to install strong selective catalytic reduction (SCR) equipment to cut its output of fine particulate matter and other emissions in order to meet federal standards. PNM, which owns about half the San Juan plant, has estimated the cost to retrofit the generating system to be between $750 million and $1 billion. The EPA estimates the cost to be much lower around $345 million. March 5, 2012

What will the Future of Coal Be ?


Coal Generation on Decline

Chart1

80.5596347814226.9598718306710.18878019132154.4491448087330.9973799181940.16395087435405.19274081970

72.0142363562239.2585940548722.63962249322142.4283972603334.86301810962084.82258630145514.720656876712000

74.386852264.4533736164774.48922901372156.7633863014175.79835583562236.82399764385453.4551475342

70.3684344932288.3219179452659.2153901372209.3828849315180.1067477262456.4103584115524.5358271781

64.236432623344.5382260656679.08010357922202.7552868852126.34589316942412.51526868855425.686448388

61.8094102466395.2840829863736.48696978082188.6426986301106.67534095892523.22923323294810.6965658082

66.2140336438458.0082001644697.81351219182210.8720563288101.53698493152706.01978945215061.069238548

61.4094417808536.1387850411867.9719802742160.073273972677.50485923292774.39319243844788.1529955616

65.5266934973562.5004016393726.98856693992212.674576502775.91702680332946.86703278694707.8532595628

67.981053589603.3016673973727.26642301372265.788621917882.37973336993010.79970410964739.2293780822

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012

Forecast

thousand megawatt-hours per day

Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.

Other sources

Renewables

Hydropower

Nuclear

Petroleum

Natural gas

Coal

Axis

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors

23.9%

23.3%

21.4%

21.6%

20.1%

18.8%

17.9%

24.6%

26.1%

26.2%

41.2%

41.7%

42.5%

44.8%

44.4%

48.2%

48.5%

49.0%

49.8%

49.6%

Contents

Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Short-Term Energy Outlook Figures, February 2012

Figure 1 - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price

Figure 2 - U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices

Figure 3 - U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices

Figure 4 - Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

Figure 5 - U.S. Natural Gas Prices

Figure 6 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption

Figure 7 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Figure 8 - World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth

Figure 9 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth

Figure 10 - World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production

Figure 11 - OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

Figure 12 - Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

Figure 13 - U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production

Figure 14 - U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Figure 15 - U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Figure 16 - U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories

Figure 17 - U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption

Figure 18 - U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports

Figure 19 - U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage

Figure 20 - U.S. Coal Consumption Growth

Figure 21 - U.S. Annual Coal Production

Figure 22 - U.S. Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks

Figure 23 - U.S. Total Electricity Consumption

Figure 24 - U.S. Residential Electricity Price

Figure 25 - U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors

Figure 26 - U.S. Renewable Energy Supply

Figure 27 - U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share of Gross Domestic Product

Figure 28 - U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth

Figure 29 - U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days

Figure 30 - U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days

Figure 31 - U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions

Figure 3 - U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices

Figure 7 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Figure 6 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption

Figure 9 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth

Figure 11 - OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

Figure 12 - Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

Figure 13 - U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production

Figure 14 - U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Figure 15 - U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

Figure 16 - U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories

Figure 17 - U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption

Figure 19 - U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage

Figure 20 - U.S. Coal Consumption Growth

Figure 21 - U.S. Annual Coal Production

Figure 22 - U.S. Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks

Figure 24 - U.S. Residential Electricity Price

Figure 27 - U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share of Gross Domestic Product

Figure 29 - U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days

Figure 30 - U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days

Figure 31 - U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions

Figure 10 - World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production

Figure 8 - World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth

Figure 28 - U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth

Figure 5 - U.S. Natural Gas Prices

Figure 1 - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price

Figure 2 - U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices

Figure 4 - Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figure 25 - U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors

Figure 23 - U.S. Total Electricity Consumption

Figure 18 - U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports

Figure 26 - U.S. Renewable Energy Supply

Fig1

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012

Return to Contents

Change the confidence interval by entering a

percentage between 0% and 100%95%95%

HistoricalSTEOSettleImpliedDays toConfidence IntervalConfidence Interval

MonthPriceForecastPriceVolatilityExpiryLowerUpperLowerUpper

Jan 201189.170.000.000.000.00

Feb 201188.580.000.000.000.00

Mar 2011102.760.000.000.000.00

Apr 2011109.530.000.000.000.00

May 2011100.900.000.000.000.00

Jun 201196.240.000.000.000.00

Jul 201197.300.000.000.000.00

Aug 201186.330.000.000.000.00

Sep 201185.520.000.000.000.00

Oct 201186.320.000.000.000.00

Nov 201197.130.000.000.000.00

Dec 201198.530.000.000.000.00

Jan 2012100.270.000.000.000.00

Feb 2012100.00100.000.000.000.000.00

Mar 2012100.0098.1690.000.000.000.00

Apr 2012100.0098.5229.6%2980.94119.9280.94119.92

May 2012100.0098.9331.0%5175.28130.0275.28130.02

Jun 2012100.0099.2932.3%7370.63139.5870.63139.58

Jul 2012100.5099.5632.6%9367.53146.7767.53146.77

Aug 2012100.5099.7132.7%11464.84153.3564.84153.35

Sep 2012100.5099.8332.8%13662.23160.1462.23160.14

Oct 2012101.0099.9232.7%15760.23165.7760.23165.77

Nov 2012101.00100.0232.6%17958.38171.3458.38171.34

Dec 2012101.00100.0932.2%19857.19175.1657.19175.16

Jan 2013102.00100.0131.9%22055.75179.4055.75179.40

Feb 2013102.0099.8931.3%24154.83181.9954.83181.99

Mar 2013102.0099.7430.8%26153.91184.5253.91184.52

Apr 2013103.0099.5230.4%28153.07186.6553.07186.65

May 2013103.0099.2929.9%30352.19188.8952.19188.89

Jun 2013103.0099.0329.6%32451.34191.0351.34191.03

Jul 2013104.0098.7129.2%34550.58192.6550.58192.65

Aug 2013104.0098.3929.0%36649.63195.0649.63195.06

Sep 2013104.0098.073870.000.000.000.00

Oct 2013106.0097.824090.000.000.000.00

Nov 2013106.0097.584300.000.000.000.00

Dec 2013106.0097.3627.5%45047.41199.9547.41199.95


Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending February 2, 2012

Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Where:

95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval

95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

Fig1

89.17405444054440544

88.58405754057540575

102.76406034060340603

109.53406344063440634

100.9406644066440664

96.24406954069540695

97.3407254072540725

86.33407564075640756

85.52407874078740787

86.32408174081740817

97.13408484084840848

98.53408784087840878

100.27409094090940909

1001004094040940

4096910098.15840969

4100010098.522119.921880685280.9408960945

4103010098.932130.017725576275.2785097618

4106110099.29139.579618935470.6299685813

41091100.599.556146.767946509967.5310745411

41122100.599.714153.352136582864.8369303328

41153100.599.828160.141244545762.2302493794

4118310199.924165.767434419260.233819815

41214101100.018171.34002514958.384491979

41244101100.09175.164154748157.1921128179

41275102100.012179.401717935355.7542049157

4130610299.892181.989503718854.8295998401

4133410299.738184.521202708453.9107078102

4136510399.524186.652208272353.0667526931

4139510399.286188.887985630352.188124952

4142610399.032191.033197424951.3383912126

4145610498.714192.654265967650.5800053119

4148710498.394195.056199600849.6337940338

4151810498.07441518

4154810697.82241548

4157910697.57641579

4160910697.364199.950442578847.4104901882



dollars per barrel


Historical spot price

STEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price



West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price

Fig2


Return to Contents

Prices (dollars per gallon)

RetailRefinerPrice

MonthGasolineCost of OilDifference

Jan 20083.042.060.98

Feb 20083.032.120.91

Mar 20083.242.330.91

Apr 20083.462.530.93

May 20083.772.800.96

Jun 20084.053.031.02

Jul 20084.063.070.99

Aug 20083.782.711.07

Sep 20083.702.361.35

Oct 20083.051.771.28

Nov 20082.151.270.88

Dec 20081.690.900.79

Jan 20091.790.890.90

Feb 20091.920.911.01

Mar 20091.961.090.87

Apr 20092.051.160.89

May 20092.271.330.93

Jun 20092.631.561.07

Jul 20092.531.511.01

Aug 20092.621.621.00

Sep 20092.551.610.94

Oct 20092.551.720.84

Nov 20092.651.770.88

Dec 20092.611.740.87

Jan 20102.721.800.92

Feb 20102.641.780.87

Mar 20102.771.840.93

Apr 20102.851.920.92

May 20102.841.731.11

Jun 20102.731.731.00

Jul 20102.731.760.97

Aug 20102.731.780.95

Sep 20102.711.760.95

Oct 20102.801.850.95

Nov 20102.861.930.93

Dec 20102.992.050.95

Jan 20113.092.100.99

Feb 20113.212.161.05

Mar 20113.562.441.12

Apr 20113.802.681.12

May 20113.912.571.34

Jun 20113.682.481.20

Jul 20113.652.491.16

Aug 20113.642.331.31

Sep 20113.612.371.24

Oct 20113.452.401.05

Nov 20113.382.550.83

Dec 20113.272.490.78

Jan 20123.382.550.83

Feb 20123.472.530.95

Mar 20123.532.531.00

Apr 20123.562.511.05

May 20123.652.501.15

Jun 20123.632.501.13

Jul 20123.632.491.13

Aug 20123.652.491.16

Sep 20123.632.491.13

Oct 20123.542.491.05

Nov 20123.492.491.00

Dec 20123.442.490.95

Jan 20133.462.480.98

Feb 20133.462.480.99

Mar 20133.502.481.02

Apr 20133.552.501.05

May 20133.672.501.17

Jun 20133.662.501.16

Jul 20133.672.521.14

Aug 20133.682.521.16

Sep 20133.672.521.14

Oct 20133.632.571.05

Nov 20133.592.571.02

Dec 20133.552.570.98


Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.

MonthForecast

Jan 20120

Jan 20124.5

Fig2

3.042752.05904761900.983702381

3.02752.12119047624.50.9063095238

3.2442.33238095240.9116190476

3.4582.5259523810.932047619

3.765752.8009523810.964797619

4.05423.03142857141.0227714286

4.06153.07214285710.9893571429

3.77852.70809523811.0704047619

3.70262.3551.3476

3.051251.76714285711.2841071429

2.1471.26976190480.8772380952

1.6870.89690476190.7900952381

1.788250.89166666670.8965833333

1.922750.90833333331.0144166667

1.95861.0850.8736

2.0491.16142857140.8875714286

2.26551.33238095240.9331190476

2.63061.56476190481.0658380952

2.52651.51380952381.0126904762

2.61641.61880952380.9975904762

2.5541.61285714290.9411428571

2.551251.71619047620.8350595238

2.65141.77333333330.8780666667

2.607251.73690476190.8703452381

2.7151.79714285710.9178571429

2.6441.77571428570.8682857143

2.77161.84357142860.9280285714

2.848251.92452380950.9237261905

2.83621.731.1062

2.73151.731.0015

2.728751.75547619050.9732738095

2.72981.77571428570.9540857143

2.7051.75833333330.9466666667

2.80051.85166666670.9488333333

2.8591.92976190480.9292380952

2.9932.04642857140.9465714286

3.09482.10190476190.9928952381

3.2112.16309523811.0479047619

3.561252.43880952381.1224404762

3.79952.68214285711.1173571429

3.90622.56714285711.3390571429

3.682.48166666671.1983333333

3.650252.49238095241.1578690476

3.63942.32619047621.3132095238

3.611252.36642857141.2448214286

3.4482.39690476191.0510952381

3.383752.55214285710.8316071429

3.265752.48809523810.7776547619

3.382.55357142860.8264285714

3.4749982.52976190480.9452360952

3.5315162.52976190481.0017540952

3.5575932.51190476191.0456882381

3.6452972.51.145297

3.6316722.51.131672

3.6270992.4940476191.133051381

3.6506822.4940476191.156634381

3.6266712.4940476191.132623381

3.5359792.48809523811.0478837619

3.486062.48809523810.9979647619

3.4425632.48809523810.9544677619

3.4602092.47619047620.9840185238

3.4640722.47619047620.9878815238

3.5010192.47619047621.0248285238

3.5531612.51.053161

3.6704532.51.170453

3.6649492.51.164949

3.6659332.52380952381.1421234762

3.6818422.52380952381.1580324762

3.668572.52380952381.1447604762

3.6255952.57142857141.0541664286

3.5887682.57142857141.0173394286

3.5465962.57142857140.9751674286

dollars per gallon



Retail regular gasoline

Crude oil

Forecast

Price difference

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices

Fig3


Return to Contents

Prices (dollars per gallon)

RefinerPrice

MonthDieselCost of OilDifference

Jan 20083.312.061.25

Feb 20083.382.121.26

Mar 20083.882.331.55

Apr 20084.082.531.56

May 20084.432.801.62

Jun 20084.683.031.65

Jul 20084.703.071.63

Aug 20084.302.711.59

Sep 20084.022.361.67

Oct 20083.581.771.81

Nov 20082.881.271.61

Dec 20082.450.901.55

Jan 20092.290.891.40

Feb 20092.200.911.29

Mar 20092.091.091.01

Apr 20092.221.161.06

May 20092.231.330.89

Jun 20092.531.560.96

Jul 20092.541.511.03

Aug 20092.631.621.02

Sep 20092.631.611.01

Oct 20092.671.720.96

Nov 20092.791.771.02

Dec 20092.751.741.01

Jan 20102.851.801.05

Feb 20102.791.781.01

Mar 20102.921.841.07

Apr 20103.061.921.13

May 20103.071.731.34

Jun 20102.951.731.22

Jul 20102.911.761.16

Aug 20102.961.781.18

Sep 20102.951.761.19

Oct 20103.051.851.20

Nov 20103.141.931.21

Dec 20103.242.051.20

Jan 20113.392.101.29

Feb 20113.582.161.42

Mar 20113.902.441.47

Apr 20114.062.681.38

May 20114.052.571.48

Jun 20113.932.481.45

Jul 20113.912.491.41

Aug 20113.862.331.53

Sep 20113.842.371.47

Oct 20113.802.401.40

Nov 20113.962.551.41

Dec 20113.862.491.37

Jan 20123.832.551.28

Feb 20123.912.531.38

Mar 20123.912.531.38

Apr 20123.922.511.41

May 20123.912.501.41

Jun 20123.922.501.42

Jul 20123.922.491.42

Aug 20123.942.491.44

Sep 20123.922.491.43

Oct 20123.942.491.45

Nov 20123.942.491.45

Dec 20123.922.491.43

Jan 20133.912.481.44

Feb 20133.902.481.42

Mar 20133.912.481.43

Apr 20133.982.501.48

May 20134.002.501.50

Jun 20134.012.501.51

Jul 20134.022.521.49

Aug 20134.032.521.50

Sep 20134.002.521.48

Oct 20134.052.571.48

Nov 20134.062.571.48

Dec 20134.002.571.43



MonthForecast

Jan 20120

Jan 20125

Fig3

3.3082.05904761901.248952381

3.3772.121190476251.2558095238

3.8812.33238095241.5486190476

4.0842.5259523811.558047619

4.4252.8009523811.624047619

4.6773.03142857141.6455714286

4.7033.07214285711.6308571429

4.3022.70809523811.5939047619

4.0242.3551.669

3.5761.76714285711.8088571429

2.8761.26976190481.6062380952

2.4490.89690476191.5520952381

2.2920.89166666671.4003333333

2.1950.90833333331.2866666667

2.0921.0851.007

2.221.16142857141.0585714286

2.2271.33238095240.8946190476

2.5291.56476190480.9642380952

2.541.51380952381.0261904762

2.6341.61880952381.0151904762

2.6261.61285714291.0131428571

2.6721.71619047620.9558095238

2.7921.77333333331.0186666667

2.7451.73690476191.0080952381

2.8451.79714285711.0478571429

2.7851.77571428571.0092857143

2.9151.84357142861.0714285714

3.0591.92452380951.1344761905

3.0691.731.339

2.9481.731.218

2.9111.75547619051.1555238095

2.9591.77571428571.1832857143

2.9461.75833333331.1876666667

3.0521.85166666671.2003333333

3.141.92976190481.2102380952

3.2432.04642857141.1965714286

3.38782.10190476191.2858952381

3.5842.16309523811.4209047619

3.90452.43880952381.4656904762

4.0642.68214285711.3818571429

4.0472.56714285711.4798571429

3.9332.48166666671.4513333333

3.9052.49238095241.4126190476

3.862.32619047621.5338095238

3.8372.36642857141.4705714286

3.7982.39690476191.4010952381

3.9622.55214285711.4098571429

3.8612.48809523811.3729047619

3.83262.55357142861.2790285714

3.9129772.52976190481.3832150952

3.9085872.52976190481.3788250952

3.9169152.51190476191.4050102381

3.9092012.51.409201

3.9163952.51.416395

3.9185472.4940476191.424499381

3.9357992.4940476191.441751381

3.9203392.4940476191.426291381

3.9365042.48809523811.4484087619

3.937112.48809523811.4490147619

3.921392.48809523811.4332947619

3.9146012.47619047621.4384105238

3.8954492.47619047621.4192585238

3.909932.47619047621.4337395238

3.975162.51.47516

3.9988552.51.498855

4.0081412.51.508141

4.0176952.52380952381.4938854762

4.0281822.52380952381.5043724762

4.0042992.52380952381.4804894762

4.0482442.57142857141.4768154286

4.056282.57142857141.4848514286

4.004292.57142857141.4328614286

dollars per gallon



Retail diesel fuel

Crude oil

Forecast

Price difference

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices

Fig4


Return to Contents

Change the confidence interval by entering a

percentage between 0% and 100%95%95%

HistoricalSTEOSettleImpliedDays toConfidence IntervalConfidence Interval

MonthPriceForecastPriceVolatilityExpiryLowerUpperLowerUpper

Jan 20114.490.000.000.000.00

Feb 20114.090.000.000.000.00

Mar 20113.970.000.000.000.00

Apr 20114.250.000.000.000.00

May 20114.310.000.000.000.00

Jun 20114.550.000.000.000.00

Jul 20114.420.000.000.000.00

Aug 20114.050.000.000.000.00

Sep 20113.900.000.000.000.00

Oct 20113.560.000.000.000.00

Nov 20113.240.000.000.000.00

Dec 20113.170.000.000.000.00

Jan 20122.670.000.000.000.00

Feb 20122.972.970.000.000.000.00

Mar 20123.142.5862.3%151.923.481.923.48

Apr 20123.222.7151.9%371.844.011.844.01

May 20123.332.8146.0%571.834.311.834.31

Jun 20123.302.8843.6%791.784.651.784.65

Jul 20123.272.9442.6%1001.744.971.744.97

Aug 20123.382.9742.0%1211.685.241.685.24

Sep 20123.472.9842.5%1441.595.581.595.58

Oct 20123.623.0242.9%1631.545.941.545.94

Nov 20123.823.1740.3%1861.616.261.616.26

Dec 20124.013.4535.5%2071.846.481.846.48

Jan 20134.113.5834.0%2271.906.731.906.73

Feb 20134.063.5832.6%2481.906.751.906.75

Mar 20134.003.5532.5%2671.846.841.846.84

Apr 20133.983.5130.9%2871.846.701.846.70

May 20133.993.5330.1%3091.846.781.846.78

Jun 20134.013.5629.8%3311.826.961.826.96

Jul 20134.003.6029.4%3511.827.121.827.12

Aug 20134.003.6229.1%3731.817.251.817.25

Sep 20134.023.6229.4%3951.767.451.767.45

Oct 20134.113.6629.4%4151.757.661.757.66

Nov 20134.213.7527.9%4371.837.721.837.72

Dec 20134.353.9525.8%4562.007.802.007.80




Where:



Fig4

4.49405444054440544

4.09405754057540575

3.97406034060340603

4.25406344063440634

4.31406644066440664

4.55406954069540695

4.42407254072540725

4.05407564075640756

3.9407874078740787

3.56408174081740817

3.24408484084840848

3.17408784087840878

2.67409094090940909

2.9656312.9656314094040940

409693.1372892.58163.4767259551.9169352564

410003.2202172.71464.00714142171.838980057

410303.3311572.80824.31269427451.8285523476

410613.2981162.87924.64514253681.7846153427

410913.2727892.93984.97215637451.7381641664

411223.3772882.9665.24396674181.6775766196

411533.4706712.97525.58104937371.5860485094

411833.6238523.02145.93778960421.5374168788

412143.8168813.17226.25519993581.6087180175

412444.0093623.44966.47665787621.8373272739

412754.1108963.57526.73391455991.8981611552

413064.0585643.57926.75040711591.8977629675

413343.9952783.55166.84134655141.843768981

413653.9825223.5076.69562973111.8368771115

413953.9904153.53046.78326915381.8374214376

414264.0087763.56226.9603164941.8230879086

414563.9970893.60387.11767235511.8246659571

414873.9956763.62087.24536036151.8094603975

415184.0246543.62187.45443620571.7596817356

415484.1141873.66167.66153812851.7499507717

415794.2138063.75367.71571443821.8260801476

416094.3535743.95127.79798520812.0020532257



dollars per million Btu


Historical spot price

STEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price



Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

Fig5


Return to Contents

Natural Gas Prices

(Dollars per thousand cubic feet)

MonthResidentialHenry HubWellhead

Jan 200812.248.227.38

Feb 200812.588.808.02

Mar 200813.139.708.63

Apr 200814.4910.498.87

May 200816.3311.619.96

Jun 200818.9113.0710.36

Jul 200820.7711.4210.79

Aug 200820.178.508.21

Sep 200818.417.906.71

Oct 200815.456.945.64

Nov 200813.806.885.23

Dec 200812.845.995.94

Jan 200912.495.404.60

Feb 200912.264.653.70

Mar 200911.984.083.38

Apr 200911.683.603.18

May 200912.863.953.23

Jun 200914.263.913.38

Jul 200915.273.493.45

Aug 200915.613.233.37

Sep 200914.803.062.98

Oct 200911.784.123.83

Nov 200911.483.774.20

Dec 200910.425.504.66

Jan 201010.566.005.69

Feb 201010.695.485.30

Mar 201010.984.424.70

Apr 201011.974.154.10

May 201013.124.264.24

Jun 201014.864.944.27

Jul 201016.214.774.44

Aug 201016.654.454.38

Sep 201015.644.013.83

Oct 201013.373.534.05

Nov 201010.883.824.12

Dec 20109.884.384.68

Jan 20119.794.624.37

Feb 201110.004.214.34

Mar 201110.194.093.95

Apr 201111.034.384.05

May 201112.134.444.12

Jun 201114.144.694.20

Jul 201115.544.554.27

Aug 201115.984.174.20

Sep 201115.064.023.82

Oct 201112.423.673.62

Nov 201110.593.343.35

Dec 20119.673.273.14

Jan 20129.722.752.89

Feb 20129.523.052.97

Mar 20129.733.232.98

Apr 201210.533.323.00

May 201211.813.433.05

Jun 201213.613.403.01

Jul 201215.143.372.93

Aug 201215.833.483.03

Sep 201215.483.573.11

Oct 201212.973.733.21

Nov 201211.213.933.41

Dec 20129.944.133.60

Jan 201310.064.233.70

Feb 201310.214.183.69

Mar 201310.444.123.64

Apr 201311.214.103.58

May 201312.454.113.49

Jun 201314.274.133.61

Jul 201315.844.123.71

Aug 201316.624.123.71

Sep 201316.294.153.73

Oct 201313.774.243.72

Nov 201311.884.343.82

Dec 201310.554.483.96


MonthForecast

Jan 20120

Jan 201225

Fig5

12.248.22478697.380

12.588.800328.0225

13.139.695398.63

14.4910.48680088.87

16.3311.60711129.96

18.9113.065786910.36

20.7711.421288910.79

20.178.50435988.21

18.417.9040146.71

15.456.93861565.64

13.86.88419045.23

12.845.98991355.94

12.495.3977154.6

12.264.65017193.7

11.984.07832623.38

11.683.59960283.18

12.863.9474753.23

14.263.91446353.38

15.273.48513893.45

15.613.23423.37

14.83.0627052.98

11.784.12293553.83

11.483.76984.2

10.425.50024.66

10.566.00495.69

10.695.47965.3

10.984.41874.7

11.974.15094.1

13.124.26424.24

14.864.9444.27

16.214.76894.44

16.654.44964.38

15.644.00673.83

13.373.53294.05

10.883.82134.12

9.884.37754.68

9.794.62474.37

104.21274.34

10.194.08913.95

11.034.37754.05

12.134.43934.12

14.144.68654.2

15.544.55264.27

15.984.17154.2

15.064.0173.82

12.423.66683.62

10.593.33723.35

9.6667963.26513.14

9.7228182.75012.89

9.5205093.05462.967727

9.727993.2314072.976798

10.53173.3168233.001299

11.809233.4310913.045973

13.60873.3970593.00717

15.138923.3709722.925514

15.83013.4786063.026528

15.479263.5747913.112506

12.968443.7325683.21408

11.214373.9313873.406406

9.9448334.1296433.598532

10.061544.2342233.70248

10.214094.1803213.694884

10.438894.1151363.637606

11.214414.1019973.57862

12.454454.1101283.491815

14.265694.1290393.612713

15.843744.1170023.70631

16.620024.1155463.707425

16.287324.1453943.731554

13.769954.2376123.720802

11.882024.340223.822868

10.548984.4841813.962549


dollars per thousand cubic feet

Residential price

Henry Hub spot price

Composite wellhead price

Forecast

U.S. Natural Gas Prices

Fig6


Return to Contents

Annual Consumption (Million barrels per day)Consumption Growth (Million barrels per day)

ChinaU.S.OtherWorldChinaU.S.OtherWorld

20046.43720.73155.38982.557

20056.69520.80256.58984.0870.2580.0711.2001.529

20067.26320.68757.18285.1330.568-0.1150.5931.046

20077.53420.68057.59185.8050.271-0.0070.4090.673

20087.94819.49857.99085.4360.414-1.1820.399-0.369

20098.54118.77157.37984.6910.592-0.727-0.611-0.745

20109.39219.18058.55587.1260.8510.4091.1752.435

20119.83018.83959.26487.9330.438-0.3410.7090.806

201210.36218.86760.02489.2530.5330.0280.7601.320

201310.92118.95660.86790.7440.5580.0900.8431.491


Forecast

7.5-3

7.59

Fig6

0.257959980.07108032911.200414914284.0866682364-3

0.56788453-0.11474245750.592760714185.1325710239

0.27075323-0.00704023010.408893096785.8051771196

0.4141923-1.18241445020.399311640785.4362666102

0.5922789128-0.7265633389-0.610860784184.6911214

0.85108874720.40872588771.175458488987.1263945237

0.438202625-0.34118586850.709326526587.9327378068

0.53253495760.02765497780.760022670289.2529504124

0.55838525390.08956323590.843168855790.744067758

Total consumption

Annual growth


Forecast

million barrels per day


China

United States

Other Countries

Total consumption

Forecast

World Liquid Fuels Consumption

Fig7


Return to Contents

Annual Consumption (Million barrels per day)Consumption Growth (Million barrels per day)

2010201120122013201120122013

OECD*46.1045.6145.4545.64-0.49-0.160.19

Non-OECD Asia19.2020.0620.8021.430.850.740.63

FSU and Eastern Europe5.165.335.415.510.170.080.09

Other16.6516.9317.5918.170.280.660.58

World87.1387.9389.2590.740.811.321.49


* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Forecast

1.5-1

1.52.5

Fig7

-0.49291401670.85429239210.16655179990.2784131078-1

-0.16134734680.74434531960.08080277840.65641185452.5

0.1915138940.62562652470.09393716330.5800397636


Forecast


* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OECD*

Non-OECD Asia

Former Soviet Union

Other

Forecast

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth(change from previous year)

Fig8


Return to Contents

Annual Production (Million barrels per day)Production Growth (Million barrels per day)

Region / Country2010201120122013201120122013

OPEC Countries35.31435.66336.54737.1460.3490.8840.599

North America16.16416.59816.95017.2140.4340.3520.264

Canada3.4933.6483.8103.9820.1560.1610.172

Mexico2.9832.9652.8912.830-0.018-0.074-0.061

United States9.6889.98510.25010.4030.2960.2650.153

Russia and Caspian Sea12.99113.08613.16313.3220.0950.0770.159

Russia10.13710.22110.04610.0540.084-0.1750.008

Azerbaijan1.0410.9891.0711.066-0.0510.082-0.005

Kazakhstan1.6101.6531.8011.9370.0420.1480.136

Turkmenistan0.2030.2230.2440.2650.0200.0210.021

Latin America4.7764.8425.0795.2940.0660.2360.215

Argentina0.7870.7580.7680.760-0.0290.010-0.009

Brazil2.7172.6912.8633.024-0.0260.1710.162

Colombia0.8000.9310.9911.0480.1310.0600.057

Other Latin America0.4720.4620.4570.461-0.010-0.0060.005

North Sea3.7323.4023.4863.379-0.3300.084-0.107

Norway2.1342.0162.0672.112-0.1170.0510.044

United Kingdom1.3191.1271.1740.975-0.1920.047-0.199

Other North Sea0.2800.2590.2450.293-0.021-0.0140.047

Other Non-OPEC14.12713.83713.86114.184-0.2900.0230.323

World Total87.10487.42989.08590.5400.3251.6561.454


Forecast

1.5-1

1.51.5

Fig8

0.34878055590.0953746620.43415269180.0662497113-0.3297083226-0.2896049028-1

0.8840578610.07668372220.35194181560.23614451060.08397323690.02336783411.5

0.59938971260.15943392540.26425793270.2151571383-0.10727248860.3233155158


Forecast


World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth(change from previous year)

OPEC countries

Russia and Caspian Sea

North America

Latin America

North Sea

Other Non-OPEC

Forecast

Fig9


Return to Contents

Annual Production (Million barrels per day)Production Growth (Million barrels per day)

2010201120122013201120122013

United States9.699.9810.2510.400.2960.2650.153

Canada3.493.653.813.980.1560.1610.172

Kazakhstan1.611.651.801.940.0420.1480.136

Brazil2.722.692.863.02-0.0260.1710.162

Colombia0.800.930.991.050.1310.0600.057

China4.274.294.434.510.0200.1370.084

Vietnam0.350.320.360.38-0.0230.0370.022

Azerbaijan1.040.991.071.07-0.0510.082-0.005

India0.930.950.940.950.019-0.0030.006

Oman0.870.890.880.880.018-0.0080.007

Malaysia0.670.610.640.68-0.0580.0320.044

Other North Sea0.280.260.250.29-0.021-0.0140.047

Gabon0.240.250.240.240.003-0.002-0.007

Australia0.550.480.550.54-0.0720.069-0.008

Egypt0.660.680.670.650.015-0.009-0.024

Norway2.132.022.072.11-0.1170.0510.044

Syria0.400.330.290.36-0.067-0.0470.070

Russia10.1410.2210.0510.050.084-0.1750.008

Mexico2.982.972.892.83-0.018-0.074-0.061

Sudan0.510.430.210.34-0.085-0.2170.125

United Kingdom1.321.131.170.97-0.1920.047-0.199

Other Non-OPEC6.146.066.126.14-0.0770.0610.021

Total Non-OPEC51.7951.7752.5453.39-0.0240.7720.855


Fig9

0.29643845010.26524242150.1529031575

0.15567214470.16111868870.1723962101

0.04233858540.14816782390.1359965593

-0.0255181950.17105896660.1619540803

0.1306214180.06017821660.0571808599

0.01989508270.1373443880.0841301487

-0.02313768770.03708404420.0223190654

-0.05130804560.082293668-0.0054528818

0.0187960483-0.00338327170.0055236446

0.0184973524-0.0080996810.0070370066

-0.05799595020.03167220650.0436519649

-0.0209786624-0.01368481880.0472929759

0.002634004-0.0023013026-0.0066115402

-0.0723465710.0685981349-0.007858822

0.015077294-0.0089571869-0.0237640985

-0.11703913550.05102888020.0442910289

-0.0672769364-0.04667895430.069734628

0.0841993048-0.17504725190.0078287213

-0.0179579031-0.0744192946-0.0610414349

-0.0849740128-0.21698215960.1254972315

-0.19169052470.0466291755-0.1988564934



2011

2012

2013

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth (change from previous year)

Fig10


Return to Contents

Non-OPECWorldWTIChange from Previous Year

SupplyDemandPriceNon-OPECWorldWTI

QuarterDate(Million bbls per day)($ per bbl)SupplyDemandPrice

2008-Q11/1/0850.2986.6997.94

2008-Q24/1/0850.0186.06123.95

2008-Q37/1/0849.2384.94118.05

2008-Q410/1/0849.9184.0758.35

2009-Q11/1/0950.1883.3842.90-0.11-3.32-55.03

2009-Q24/1/0950.0983.9959.450.08-2.07-64.50

2009-Q37/1/0950.4885.3668.201.250.42-49.85

2009-Q410/1/0951.1386.0076.061.211.9317.71

2010-Q11/1/1051.6085.6278.641.422.2535.74

2010-Q24/1/1051.6486.3377.791.542.3418.34

2010-Q37/1/1051.5587.9176.051.072.557.85

2010-Q410/1/1052.3888.6085.101.252.609.04

2011-Q11/1/1151.9886.9793.500.381.3514.86

2011-Q24/1/1151.3187.03102.22-0.320.7024.43

2011-Q37/1/1151.3988.9289.72-0.161.0113.66

2011-Q410/1/1152.3988.7893.990.010.178.90

2012-Q11/1/1252.3088.43100.090.321.466.59

2012-Q24/1/1252.4888.58100.001.161.55-2.22

2012-Q37/1/1252.5389.75100.501.150.8310.78

2012-Q410/1/1252.8490.23101.000.451.467.01

2013-Q11/1/1353.1490.12102.000.841.691.91

2013-Q24/1/1353.2490.25103.000.761.673.00

2013-Q37/1/1353.2691.24104.000.731.493.50

2013-Q410/1/1353.9391.34106.001.091.115.00


LineForecast

12.5-100

12.5100

Fig10

-3.315763557-0.107522794-55.0333333333-100

-2.07434029570.0834507939-64.5033333333100

0.41874097391.2455579469-49.85

1.93409044641.214307194117.7133333333

2.24904095071.418905556935.7366666667

2.34039412461.543575758118.34

2.54540146291.06653340367.8533333333

2.60117613771.24844051579.0366666667

1.34772457030.380046029714.8633333333

0.703595485-0.322260493624.4333333333

1.0109298707-0.159158665813.6633333333

0.17377554070.01275501058.8966666667

1.46254038750.32455325316.5866666667

1.54784917621.1607988477-2.2233333333

0.82935617981.146362702310.7833333333

1.45556802950.45380683427.0066666667

1.68954809460.84051427521.91

1.67105133180.76041735623

1.4900866770.72565452423.5

1.11115783731.08906066885


millions of barrels per day

dollars per barrel

World oil consumption (left axis)

Non-OPEC production (left axis)

WTI crude oil price (right axis)

Forecast

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production(change from previous year)

Fig11


Return to Contents

Surplus

Capacity

Year(Million bbls per day)

20014.07

20025.54

20031.92

20041.27

20051.00

20061.42

20072.07

20081.37

20093.93

20103.51

20113.00

20123.58

20133.83

2001-2011 average2.65


Note: Shaded area represents 2001-2011 average (2.6 million barrels per day)

LineAxis

11.50

11.57

Fig11

2.64535898584.06589894520

5.53840021377

1.9213902192

1.2739478197

1.0021917808

1.4208767123

2.0674931507

1.3654236123

3.9311273223

3.5078034008

3.0043956671

3.5758385874

3.8305205479

Forecast

Note: Shaded area represents 2001-2011 average (2.6 million barrels per day)



2001-2011 average

Surplus Capacity

Axis

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

Fig12


Return to Contents

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

Days2007 - 2011

SupplyLowHighRange

Jan 20075453618

Feb 20075151587

Mar 20075252597

Apr 20075453608

May 20075554638

Jun 20075454606

Jul 20075454616

Aug 20075454628

Sep 20075454607

Oct 20075252608

Nov 20075151609

Dec 20075151576

Jan 20085353618

Feb 20085151587

Mar 20085352597

Apr 20085353608

May 20085454638

Jun 20085554606

Jul 20085554616

Aug 20085754628

Sep 20085754607

Oct 20085552608

Nov 20085751609

Dec 20085651576

Jan 20095853618

Feb 20095851587

Mar 20095952597

Apr 20096053608

May 20096354638

Jun 20096054606

Jul 20096154616

Aug 20096254628

Sep 20096054607

Oct 20095952608

Nov 20096051609

Dec 20095651576

Jan 20106153618

Feb 20105851587

Mar 20105752597

Apr 20106053608

May 20106254638

Jun 20106054606

Jul 20106054616

Aug 20106054628

Sep 20105854607

Oct 20106052608

Nov 20105851609

Dec 20105651576

Jan 20115953618

Feb 20115651587

Mar 20115752597

Apr 20116053608

May 20116154638

Jun 20115954606

Jul 20116054616

Aug 20115854628

Sep 20115854607

Oct 20115852608

Nov 20115751609

Dec 20115751576

Jan 20126053618

Feb 20125751587

Mar 20125852597

Apr 20126053608

May 20126154638

Jun 20126054606

Jul 20126054616

Aug 20125954628

Sep 20125954607

Oct 20125852608

Nov 20125851609

Dec 20125651576

Jan 20135853618

Feb 20135651587

Mar 20135652597

Apr 20135853608

May 20136054638

Jun 20135854606

Jul 20135854616

Aug 20135854628

Sep 20135754607

Oct 20135752608

Nov 20135751609

Dec 20135551576


Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

MonthForecast

Jan 201240

Jan 201270

Fig12

54.30066855852.63710067537.917976226840

51.276043710650.72809824017.167155963570

52.020666503752.02066650376.8072523565

53.987193722152.57757842317.5807217529

55.106680523654.44547269028.0660914525

54.209050675654.20905067566.2411725754

54.457541799654.45754179966.2712396188

53.592461325553.59246132557.9593921049

53.716310596153.71631059616.7778818307

52.201275251552.20127525157.9520349618

50.844377083750.84437708378.9900817427

51.152435523651.15243552365.6738938828

52.637100675352.63710067537.9179762268

50.728098240150.72809824017.1671559635

53.341832617752.02066650376.8072523565

52.577578423152.57757842317.5807217529

54.445472690254.44547269028.0660914525

55.040077527854.20905067566.2411725754

55.255270628654.45754179966.2712396188

57.134357174753.59246132557.9593921049

56.936371579953.71631059616.7778818307

55.184680088852.20127525157.9520349618

57.462620217150.84437708378.9900817427

56.126639483751.15243552365.6738938828

57.97647768552.63710067537.9179762268

57.895254203650.72809824017.1671559635

58.827918860352.02066650376.8072523565

60.158300176152.57757842317.5807217529

62.511564142754.44547269028.0660914525

60.450223250954.20905067566.2411725754

60.728781418454.45754179966.2712396188

61.551853430453.59246132557.9593921049

60.494192426953.71631059616.7778818307

59.091365798852.20127525157.9520349618

59.834458826450.84437708378.9900817427

55.960393167751.15243552365.6738938828

60.555076902152.63710067537.9179762268

57.667013308650.72809824017.1671559635

57.279668768752.02066650376.8072523565

59.774927195252.57757842317.5807217529

61.829213411654.44547269028.0660914525

59.640740645854.20905067566.2411725754

59.779485816654.45754179966.2712396188

59.983497152353.59246132557.9593921049

58.189606095353.71631059616.7778818307

60.153310213352.20127525157.9520349618

58.26003694650.84437708378.9900817427

55.919186612351.15243552365.6738938828

59.499018948252.63710067537.9179762268

56.496296878450.72809824017.1671559635

56.746946305552.02066650376.8072523565

60.013284248252.57757842317.5807217529

61.123537537754.44547269028.0660914525

58.646334557454.20905067566.2411725754

59.574899485954.45754179966.2712396188

57.9923669553.59246132557.9593921049

57.649644025753.71631059616.7778818307

58.341829799552.20127525157.9520349618

57.272800928950.84437708378.9900817427

56.826329406451.15243552365.6738938828

59.715740707952.63710067537.9179762268

56.929665306250.72809824017.1671559635

57.706913319652.02066650376.8072523565

59.635445695652.57757842317.5807217529

61.116659697654.44547269028.0660914525

59.532728751254.20905067566.2411725754

59.695631429554.45754179966.2712396188

59.433809758353.59246132557.9593921049

58.691951328653.71631059616.7778818307

58.408390871852.20127525157.9520349618

57.83273050150.84437708378.9900817427

56.233326490651.15243552365.6738938828

58.159270114252.63710067537.9179762268

55.588362014750.72809824017.1671559635

56.330145030452.02066650376.8072523565

58.094944462752.57757842317.5807217529

59.634903094754.44547269028.0660914525

58.07262116554.20905067566.2411725754

58.228842977754.45754179966.2712396188

57.974847114553.59246132557.9593921049

57.208929115453.71631059616.7778818307

57.187375456252.20127525157.9520349618

56.780774225750.84437708378.9900817427

55.481231622751.15243552365.6738938828


0

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

days of supply

Days of supply

Normal range - low

Normal range - high

Forecast

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

Fig13


Return to Contents

Production (million barrels per day)Annual Growth (millioni barrels per day)

200920102011201220132010201120122013

Crude oil5.3615.4745.5885.8275.9210.1140.1140.2380.095

Liquefied petroleum gas and

pentanes plus1.9102.0742.1712.2112.2420.1640.0970.0400.031

Ethanol0.7130.8670.9090.9330.9380.1540.0420.0240.005

Biodiesel0.0330.0200.0580.0580.067-0.0130.0380.0010.008

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012Total Percent Change2.1%4.3%1.6%

Total

ProductionForecast

Jan 20108.270

Feb 20108.495

Mar 20108.478

Apr 20108.329

May 20108.373

Jun 20108.377

Jul 20108.188

Aug 20108.422

Sep 20108.671

Oct 20108.620

Nov 20108.656

Dec 20108.593

Jan 20118.463

Feb 20118.320

Mar 20118.632

Apr 20118.605

May 20118.679

Jun 20118.638

Jul 20118.555

Aug 20118.808

Sep 20118.670

Oct 20118.949

Nov 20119.160

Dec 20118.984

Jan 20128.896

Feb 20128.9328.932

Mar 20129.018

Apr 20129.024

May 20129.049

Jun 20128.983

Jul 20128.974

Aug 20128.948

Sep 20128.952

Oct 20129.035

Nov 20129.126

Dec 20129.078

Jan 20139.021

Feb 20139.056

Mar 20139.135

Apr 20139.151

May 20139.207

Jun 20139.128

Jul 20139.098

Aug 20139.047

Sep 20139.049

Oct 20139.191

Nov 20139.273

Dec 20139.230

Fig13

8.270219401790.11392148280.16409574250.1539533534-0.012844888

8.495066402100.11380639260.09696741080.04164922190.0375699833

8.477751402380.23831712610.04017517940.02396901290.0005662909

8.328692561402690.09455039930.03054867560.0054194120.0083974755

8.372652527140299

8.37656700740330

8.187773140360

8.422266680640391

8.67053100940422

8.620467188440452

8.65628672440483

8.593314114840513

8.462542322640544

8.319520857140575

8.631935580640603

8.605201666740634

8.679134741940664

8.638100333340695

8.555071032340725

8.807743161340756

8.669569666740787

8.949207266440817

9.160140848

8.983746665440878

8.896380839840909

8.9320938.932093

409699.01815

410009.023874

410309.048867

410618.983461

410918.973861

411228.947842

411538.952124

411839.03485

412149.126153

412449.077699

412759.020625

413069.055658

413349.135367

413659.150511

413959.207181

414269.12839

414569.097854

414879.046816

415189.048906

415489.190782

415799.273139

416099.230311

Total production(line chart)

Change from prior year(column chart)


Total production (left axis)

Production forecast (left axis)

Crude oil (right axis)

Liquefied petroleum gas and pentanes plus (right axis)

Fuel ethanol (right axis)

Biodiesel (right axis)

U.S Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production(million barrels per day)

Fig14


Return to Contents

Normal Range for Chart

Stock2007 - 2011

LevelLowHighRange

Jan 2007324.5296.2351.355.1

Feb 2007317.6302.3357.655.3

Mar 2007330.9314.7366.952.3

Apr 2007342.0319.7370.951.2

May 2007353.3303.7369.766.1

Jun 2007354.1295.8365.569.7

Jul 2007336.7295.2357.662.4

Aug 2007320.5302.5359.356.8

Sep 2007311.1304.0362.858.8

Oct 2007307.2307.2367.660.4

Nov 2007299.5299.5352.553.0

Dec 2007286.1286.1333.447.3

Jan 2008296.2296.2351.355.1

Feb 2008302.3302.3357.655.3

Mar 2008314.7314.7366.952.3

Apr 2008319.7319.7370.951.2

May 2008303.7303.7369.766.1

Jun 2008295.8295.8365.569.7

Jul 2008295.2295.2357.662.4

Aug 2008302.5302.5359.356.8

Sep 2008304.0304.0362.858.8

Oct 2008312.6307.2367.660.4

Nov 2008321.6299.5352.553.0

Dec 2008325.8286.1333.447.3

Jan 2009351.3296.2351.355.1

Feb 2009357.6302.3357.655.3

Mar 2009366.9314.7366.952.3

Apr 2009370.9319.7370.951.2

May 2009359.5303.7369.766.1

Jun 2009347.1295.8365.569.7

Jul 2009345.4295.2357.662.4

Aug 2009335.6302.5359.356.8

Sep 2009335.0304.0362.858.8

Oct 2009332.5307.2367.660.4

Nov 2009336.9299.5352.553.0

Dec 2009325.2286.1333.447.3

Jan 2010336.8296.2351.355.1

Feb 2010343.2302.3357.655.3

Mar 2010359.2314.7366.952.3

Apr 2010363.3319.7370.951.2

May 2010361.9303.7369.766.1

Jun 2010365.5295.8365.569.7

Jul 2010357.6295.2357.662.4

Aug 2010359.3302.5359.356.8

Sep 2010362.8304.0362.858.8

Oct 2010367.6307.2367.660.4

Nov 2010352.5299.5352.553.0

Dec 2010333.4286.1333.447.3

Jan 2011347.4296.2351.355.1

Feb 2011350.3302.3357.655.3

Mar 2011362.6314.7366.952.3

Apr 2011369.3319.7370.951.2

May 2011369.7303.7369.766.1

Jun 2011358.5295.8365.569.7

Jul 2011348.1295.2357.662.4

Aug 2011349.3302.5359.356.8

Sep 2011331.8304.0362.858.8

Oct 2011338.6307.2367.660.4

Nov 2011337.6299.5352.553.0

Dec 2011331.1286.1333.447.3

Jan 2012340.3296.2351.355.1

Feb 2012344.8302.3357.655.3

Mar 2012354.8314.7366.952.3

Apr 2012360.1319.7370.951.2

May 2012354.6303.7369.766.1

Jun 2012350.6295.8365.569.7

Jul 2012344.4295.2357.662.4

Aug 2012340.7302.5359.356.8

Sep 2012339.3304.0362.858.8

Oct 2012341.3307.2367.660.4

Nov 2012337.9299.5352.553.0

Dec 2012325.6286.1333.447.3

Jan 2013334.9296.2351.355.1

Feb 2013340.4302.3357.655.3

Mar 2013351.2314.7366.952.3

Apr 2013357.3319.7370.951.2

May 2013352.5303.7369.766.1

Jun 2013348.4295.8365.569.7

Jul 2013342.1295.2357.662.4

Aug 2013338.3302.5359.356.8

Sep 2013336.6304.0362.858.8

Oct 2013339.2307.2367.660.4

Nov 2013336.3299.5352.553.0

Dec 2013323.4286.1333.447.3


Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

MonthForecast

Jan 2012200

Jan 2012400

Fig14

324.549296.20755.13200

317.572302.29155.275400

330.875314.65952.284

341.971319.73951.176

353.307303.65166.091

354.071295.77269.725

336.724295.23262.377

320.539302.51456.807

311.112304.01458.821

307.239307.23960.353

299.525299.52552.95

286.105286.10547.325

296.207296.20755.13

302.291302.29155.275

314.659314.65952.284

319.739319.73951.176

303.651303.65166.091

295.772295.77269.725

295.232295.23262.377

302.514302.51456.807

304.014304.01458.821

312.643307.23960.353

321.566299.52552.95

325.84286.10547.325

351.337296.20755.13

357.566302.29155.275

366.943314.65952.284

370.915319.73951.176

359.501303.65166.091

347.066295.77269.725

345.428295.23262.377

335.583302.51456.807

335.011304.01458.821

332.502307.23960.353

336.913299.52552.95

325.179286.10547.325

336.815296.20755.13

343.216302.29155.275

359.245314.65952.284

363.268319.73951.176

361.945303.65166.091

365.497295.77269.725

357.609295.23262.377

359.321302.51456.807

362.835304.01458.821

367.592307.23960.353

352.475299.52552.95

333.43286.10547.325

347.42296.20755.13

350.286302.29155.275

362.59314.65952.284

369.323319.73951.176

369.742303.65166.091

358.473295.77269.725

348.148295.23262.377

349.331302.51456.807

331.769304.01458.821

338.608307.23960.353

337.645299.52552.95

331.1055714286286.10547.325

340.3080124924296.20755.13

344.8242302.29155.275

354.7704314.65952.284

360.1151319.73951.176

354.5582303.65166.091

350.5867295.77269.725

344.3801295.23262.377

340.7206302.51456.807

339.3194304.01458.821

341.2661307.23960.353

337.8843299.52552.95

325.6076286.10547.325

334.9156296.20755.13

340.3802302.29155.275

351.1974314.65952.284

357.3278319.73951.176

352.515303.65166.091

348.3968295.77269.725

342.1084295.23262.377

338.2899302.51456.807

336.5809304.01458.821

339.1957307.23960.353

336.3469299.52552.95

323.3947286.10547.325


0

million barrels


U.S. crude oil stocks

Normal range - low

Normal range - high

Forecast

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Fig15


Return to Contents

Consumption (million barrels per day)Consumption Growth (million barrels per day)

200920102011201220132010201120122013

Total18.7719.1818.8418.8718.960.41-0.340.030.09

Motor gasoline9.008.998.748.718.69-0.00-0.25-0.03-0.01

Jet fuel1.391.431.431.431.440.04-0.000.010.00

Distillate fuel3.633.803.863.903.990.170.060.040.09

Other4.754.964.814.824.840.20-0.140.010.01


Total Consumption (million bbl/day)

HistoryForecast

Jan 201018.65

Feb 201018.85

Mar 201019.10

Apr 201019.04

May 201018.87

Jun 201019.54

Jul 201019.32

Aug 201019.66

Sep 201019.44

Oct 201018.97

Nov 201018.98

Dec 201019.72

Jan 201119.12

Feb 201118.87

Mar 201119.25

Apr 201118.61

May 201118.36

Jun 201119.28

Jul 201118.56

Aug 201119.15

Sep 201118.80

Oct 201118.56

Nov 201118.73

Dec 201118.78

Jan 201218.22

Feb 201218.9018.90

Mar 201218.98

Apr 201218.80

May 201218.65

Jun 201219.16

Jul 201218.85

Aug 201219.16

Sep 201218.79

Oct 201218.78

Nov 201218.82

Dec 201219.31

Jan 201318.82

Feb 201319.06

Mar 201319.04

Apr 201318.83

May 201318.70

Jun 201319.17

Jul 201318.87

Aug 201319.16

Sep 201318.84

Oct 201318.80

Nov 201318.86

Dec 201319.31

Fig15

-0.00386605210.03845864660.16923304660.204900246618.65168140179

-0.2546297479-0.0020818630.0574919699-0.141966227418.84960340210

-0.03015897670.00509309420.04211233530.01060852519.09945340238

-0.01399290830.00373184830.08764211950.012182176419.04356840269

18.86591740299

19.53654140330

19.31860140360

19.66181440391

19.43847640422

18.97389640452

18.97706640483

19.72167840513

19.12137640544

18.86885140575

19.24839140603

18.61273240634

18.36310740664

19.27744140695

18.55508940725

19.1534340756

18.79541240787

18.56305640817

18.73398240848

18.779259838740878

18.216014672940909

18.8963318.89633

4096918.97509

4100018.79956

4103018.65044

4106119.15534

4109118.85023

4112219.15726

4115318.79424

4118318.77791

4121418.82118

4124419.31071

4127518.8235

4130619.05564

4133419.0384

4136518.83106

4139518.69894

4142619.17236

4145618.87435

4148719.16404

4151818.84081

4154818.80465

4157918.86292

4160919.31296

Total consumption(line chart)



Motor gasoline (right axis)

Jet fuel (right axis)

Distillate fuel (right axis)

Other fuels (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis)

Consumption forecast (left axis)

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption(million barrels per day)

Fig16


Return to Contents

Normal Inventory Ranges for Chart (Million barrels)

Inventories (Million barrels)DistillateDistillateGasolineGasolineBottomDistillateGasoline

DistillateGasolineLowHighLowHighRangeRangeRange

Jan 2007139.6227.4131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4

Feb 2007123.7215.3117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8

Mar 2007120.0201.6107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5

Apr 2007121.3196.9107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6

May 2007125.1202.7113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0

Jun 2007123.8205.5121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0

Jul 2007130.3205.1130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9

Aug 2007134.6194.0133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0

Sep 2007134.2200.0127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2

Oct 2007134.4198.6127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2

Nov 2007134.8204.8134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3

Dec 2007133.9218.1133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7

Jan 2008131.0232.8131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4

Feb 2008117.6235.2117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8

Mar 2008107.8222.2107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5

Apr 2008107.1211.3107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6

May 2008113.9208.3113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0

Jun 2008121.7210.9121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0

Jul 2008130.9206.7130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9

Aug 2008133.0195.7133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0

Sep 2008127.7190.0127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2

Oct 2008127.6195.0127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2

Nov 2008135.9203.7134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3

Dec 2008146.0213.6133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7

Jan 2009143.7219.6131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4

Feb 2009148.1216.4117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8

Mar 2009145.3217.1107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5

Apr 2009150.1210.5107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6

May 2009156.7204.1113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0

Jun 2009162.7213.9121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0

Jul 2009165.9212.5130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9

Aug 2009168.6207.8133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0

Sep 2009172.7214.1127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2

Oct 2009171.2211.1127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2

Nov 2009171.1219.7134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3

Dec 2009166.0223.3133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7

Jan 2010163.5232.2131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4

Feb 2010155.3234.6117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8

Mar 2010146.8225.0107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5

Apr 2010144.8220.5107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6

May 2010150.0217.7113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0

Jun 2010157.9215.6121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0

Jul 2010166.6220.0130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9

Aug 2010170.3221.0133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0

Sep 2010166.7219.3127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2

Oct 2010161.5209.7127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2

Nov 2010162.0212.8134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3

Dec 2010164.3219.4133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7

Jan 2011162.2235.0131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4

Feb 2011153.8229.5117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8

Mar 2011148.5214.9107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5

Apr 2011142.9204.7107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6

May 2011144.7213.9113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0

Jun 2011143.7215.2121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0

Jul 2011158.1216.8130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9

Aug 2011156.9212.3133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0

Sep 2011153.7216.1127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2

Oct 2011142.9208.4127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2

Nov 2011144.0221.0134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3

Dec 2011144.7222.2133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7

Jan 2012145.1231.9131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4

Feb 2012136.1230.3117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8

Mar 2012127.6220.3107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5

Apr 2012125.6213.3107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6

May 2012131.6214.4113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0

Jun 2012136.1216.8121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0

Jul 2012143.0216.5130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9

Aug 2012147.1210.2133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0

Sep 2012146.7214.5127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2

Oct 2012144.9211.3127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2

Nov 2012146.7217.1134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3

Dec 2012148.7226.0133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7

Jan 2013146.4238.2131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4

Feb 2013138.7234.8117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8

Mar 2013130.9223.5107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5

Apr 2013129.3215.4107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6

May 2013135.8216.8113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0

Jun 2013140.3219.4121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0

Jul 2013147.1218.4130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9

Aug 2013151.0213.1133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0

Sep 2013150.4216.8127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2

Oct 2013148.6214.0127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2

Nov 2013150.3218.8134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3

Dec 2013152.4226.5133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7



MonthForecast

Jan 201260

Jan 2012260

Fig16

139.608130.96332.564227.42556.04515.44760

123.723117.63637.697215.32759.99419.83260

120.007107.78440.758201.5753.02823.472

121.311107.05143.007196.92146.86323.551

125.083113.94142.765202.74646.0415.003

123.8121.7141.013205.54642.82310.032

130.297130.29736.331205.09738.46914.89

134.569132.97337.361193.96823.63427.007

134.236127.67945.052199.98617.28929.236

134.431127.59543.569198.59223.80816.165

134.8134.836.325204.75932.60417.251

133.944133.94432.02218.10747.5869.732

130.963130.96332.564232.83156.04515.447

117.636117.63637.697235.15759.99419.83

107.784107.78440.758222.19853.02823.472

107.051107.05143.007211.34946.86323.551

113.941113.94142.765208.34546.0415.003

121.71121.7141.013210.8742.82310.032

130.906130.29736.331206.67938.46914.89

132.973132.97337.361195.73723.63427.007

127.679127.67945.052190.0217.28929.236

127.595127.59543.569194.97223.80816.165

135.876134.836.325203.72932.60417.251

146.013133.94432.02213.5547.5869.732

143.73130.96332.564219.57256.04515.447

148.105117.63637.697216.38359.99419.83

145.301107.78440.758217.06153.02823.472

150.058107.05143.007210.50146.86323.551

156.706113.94142.765204.08246.0415.003

162.723121.7141.013213.86642.82310.032

165.94130.29736.331212.49638.46914.89

168.649132.97337.361207.81923.63427.007

172.731127.67945.052214.06117.28929.236

171.164127.59543.569211.13723.80816.165

171.125134.836.325219.7432.60417.251

165.964133.94432.02223.28247.5869.732

163.527130.96332.564232.24856.04515.447

155.333117.63637.697234.55859.99419.83

146.817107.78440.758225.04253.02823.472

144.802107.05143.007220.47246.86323.551

150.041113.94142.765217.74946.0415.003

157.944121.7141.013215.57842.82310.032

166.628130.29736.331219.98738.46914.89

170.334132.97337.361220.97523.63427.007

166.735127.67945.052219.25617.28929.236

161.51127.59543.569209.74723.80816.165

161.991134.836.325212.79432.60417.251

164.306133.94432.02219.43547.5869.732

162.205130.96332.564235.01956.04515.447

153.823117.63637.697229.49859.99419.83

148.542107.78440.758214.953.02823.472

142.852107.05143.007204.71646.86323.551

144.679113.94142.765213.88646.0415.003

143.658121.7141.013215.19342.82310.032

158.126130.29736.331216.79538.46914.89

156.912132.97337.361212.26423.63427.007

153.667127.67945.052216.10717.28929.236

142.86127.59543.569208.37723.80816.165

144.013134.836.325220.9832.60417.251

144.7172857143133.94432.02222.223428571447.5869.732

145.0560159597130.96332.564231.900440289856.04515.447

136.1222117.63637.697230.3439459.99419.83

127.6136107.78440.758220.2949253.02823.472

125.6316107.05143.007213.2618646.86323.551

131.5509113.94142.765214.373446.0415.003

136.057121.7141.013216.7605842.82310.032

143.0437130.29736.331216.4777238.46914.89

147.1385132.97337.361210.162723.63427.007

146.6834127.67945.052214.4602517.28929.236

144.8701127.59543.569211.3263923.80816.165

146.6694134.836.325217.1360232.60417.251

148.7131133.94432.02226.001347.5869.732

146.4025130.96332.564238.1744856.04515.447

138.7345117.63637.697234.8274159.99419.83

130.8734107.78440.758223.5413553.02823.472

129.2739107.05143.007215.4221146.86323.551

135.7708113.94142.765216.7834346.0415.003

140.3295121.7141.013219.3754642.82310.032

147.1201130.29736.331218.3997938.46914.89

151.0451132.97337.361213.1265823.63427.007

150.3679127.67945.052216.8297117.28929.236

148.5605127.59543.569214.0275623.80816.165

150.3324134.836.325218.8492932.60417.251

152.3687133.94432.02226.5093347.5869.732

Total motor gasoline inventory

Total distillate fuel inventory


0

million barrels


Total distillate inventories

Normal range for distillate - low

Normal range for distillate - high

Total motor gasoline inventories

Normal range for gasoline - low

Normal range for gasoline - high

Forecast

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories

Fig17


Return to Contents

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)Consumption Growth (bcf per day)

200920102011201220132010201120122013

Electric power18.8320.2420.7921.9522.391.410.551.150.44

Industrial16.9017.8618.5118.7018.980.960.660.190.28

Residential and commercial21.6421.6121.8321.9322.35-0.020.210.100.42

Other5.405.435.775.915.980.020.340.140.07

Total consumption62.7765.1466.9168.4869.702.371.771.581.22


Total Consumption (bcf per day)

HistoryForecast

Jan 201089.77

Feb 201087.71

Mar 201068.30

Apr 201055.57

May 201051.32

Jun 201054.13

Jul 201058.07

Aug 201059.79

Sep 201053.75

Oct 201052.88

Nov 201064.88

Dec 201086.62

Jan 201192.86

Feb 201187.24

Mar 201171.97

Apr 201160.99

May 201153.81

Jun 201155.10

Jul 201160.66

Aug 201160.56

Sep 201154.70

Oct 201156.35

Nov 201166.78

Dec 201182.84

Jan 201289.67

Feb 201289.9689.96

Mar 201273.33

Apr 201261.35

May 201254.42

Jun 201256.38

Jul 201260.08

Aug 201261.85

Sep 201256.76

Oct 201259.68

Nov 201270.75

Dec 201288.04

Jan 201394.72

Feb 201389.76

Mar 201374.38

Apr 201362.17

May 201354.58

Jun 201357.18

Jul 201361.71

Aug 201363.30

Sep 201358.24

Oct 201360.82

Nov 201371.50

Dec 201389.04

Fig17

89.7692018065401791.4100037973-0.02329589040.95919178080.0248246575

87.7106736429402100.55454848490.21356701370.65560947950.3438425205

68.3003396774402381.15411642420.09780778770.18839936930.1385584666

55.5711466333402690.44442064710.42382710540.27935652110.0688922567

51.324641903240299

54.127640766740330

58.071374967740360

59.787111387140391

53.749351740422

52.883420838740452

64.884773733340483

86.622203451640513

92.856361064540544

87.244550607140575

71.967840774240603

60.989408640634

53.811845161340664

55.102599366740695

60.659288838740725

60.564544677440756

54.702566266740787

56.347909483940817

66.775305540848

82.844240878

89.6668340909

89.9595689.95956

4096973.33464

4100061.35222

4103054.42073

4106156.3788

4109160.07907

4112261.8513

4115356.76213

4118359.67858

4121470.74822

4124488.04187

4127594.71928

4130689.76137

4133474.38061

4136562.16767

4139554.5799

4142657.17792

4145661.71209

4148763.29998

4151858.24012

4154860.81514

4157971.50495

4160989.03592

Total consumption(line chart)



Total consumption (left axis)

Consumption forecast (left axis)

Electric power (right axis)

Residential and commercial (right axis)

Industrial (right axis)

Other (right axis)

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption(billion cubic feet per day)

Fig18


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Production / Imports (billion cubic feet per day)Annual Growth (bcf per day)

200920102011201220132010201120122013

Federal Gulf of Mexico6.656.154.984.344.36-0.50-1.17-0.630.01

U.S. excluding Gulf of Mexico52.6555.2261.1763.2964.162.575.952.120.87

Net Imports15.8815.6314.0513.1013.24-0.25-1.58-0.950.15


U.S. Marketed Production (bcf per day)

HistoryForecast

Jan 201059.28

Feb 201060.42

Mar 201060.76

Apr 201060.33

May 201060.67

Jun 201059.91

Jul 201061.55

Aug 201062.05

Sep 201062.47

Oct 201062.65

Nov 201062.72

Dec 201063.59

Jan 201163.63

Feb 201162.58

Mar 201165.15

Apr 201165.97

May 201166.01

Jun 201165.89

Jul 201165.92

Aug 201166.15

Sep 201166.83

Oct 201168.12

Nov 201169.07

Dec 201168.19

Jan 201268.02

Feb 201267.6567.65

Mar 201267.49

Apr 201267.22

May 201267.26

Jun 201267.22

Jul 201267.45

Aug 201267.58

Sep 201267.58

Oct 201267.83

Nov 201268.04

Dec 201268.29

Jan 201368.39

Feb 201368.43

Mar 201368.48

Apr 201368.48

May 201368.52

Jun 201368.53

Jul 201368.58

Aug 201368.46

Sep 201368.34

Oct 201368.54

Nov 201368.70

Dec 201368.74

Fig18

59.279612677440179-0.2519196685-0.50371063292.5700247753

60.417952214340210-1.5843388849-1.1746674115.9459494356

60.76311812940238-0.9524358007-0.63351561162.121545921

60.3293349402690.14657110750.0144851020.8672256681

60.672062516140299

59.914298666740330

61.554415806540360

62.050623354840391

62.468267466740422

62.647251516140452

62.724706466740483

63.592262451640513

63.626425612940544

62.582133571440575

65.147245225840603

65.971611466740634

66.013266838740664

65.888100466740695

65.922763225840725

66.152201225840756

66.834932533340787

68.120157032340817

69.074652233340848

68.1882640878

68.017640909

67.6494867.64948

4096967.48579

4100067.2193

4103067.25507

4106167.21967

4109167.44527

4112267.58162

4115367.58221

4118367.8284

4121468.03531

4124468.2861

4127568.38736

4130668.42516

4133468.48176

4136568.48008

4139568.51901

4142668.528

4145668.58137

4148768.46471

4151868.34499

4154868.53904

4157968.69976

4160968.74045

Total marketed production(line chart)



Total marketed production (left axis)

Marketed production forecast (left axis)

Net imports (right axis)

Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)

U.S. production excluding Gulf of Mexico (right axis)

U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports(billion cubic feet per day)

Fig19


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U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage(billion cubic feet)

Storage2007 - 2011

LevelLowHighRangeAverageDeviation*

Jan 20072382.92055.92382.9327.02236.76.5%

Feb 20071651.61464.71758.0293.31656.3-0.3%

Mar 20071603.01266.11659.6393.61552.33.3%

Apr 20071722.71436.42011.1574.71773.8-2.9%

May 20072181.21839.52419.7580.12200.6-0.9%

Jun 20072582.82177.52760.1582.62558.11.0%

Jul 20072896.32517.03090.3573.32848.71.7%

Aug 20073020.82866.23359.1493.03083.7-2.0%

Sep 20073315.43160.93646.0485.13409.2-2.7%

Oct 20073565.43399.43850.6451.33685.9-3.3%

Nov 20073442.03345.93842.8496.93647.4-5.6%

Dec 20072879.32840.43472.0631.63086.6-6.7%

Jan 20082055.92055.92382.9327.02236.7-8.1%

Feb 20081464.71464.71758.0293.31656.3-11.6%

Mar 20081266.11266.11659.6393.61552.3-18.4%

Apr 20081436.41436.42011.1574.71773.8-19.0%

May 20081839.51839.52419.7580.12200.6-16.4%

Jun 20082177.52177.52760.1582.62558.1-14.9%

Jul 20082517.02517.03090.3573.32848.7-11.6%

Aug 20082866.22866.23359.1493.03083.7-7.1%

Sep 20083160.93160.93646.0485.13409.2-7.3%

Oct 20083399.43399.43850.6451.33685.9-7.8%

Nov 20083345.93345.93842.8496.93647.4-8.3%

Dec 20082840.42840.43472.0631.63086.6-8.0%

Jan 20092133.22055.92382.9327.02236.7-4.6%

Feb 20091758.01464.71758.0293.31656.36.1%

Mar 20091659.61266.11659.6393.61552.36.9%

Apr 20091909.91436.42011.1574.71773.87.7%

May 20092374.81839.52419.7580.12200.67.9%

Jun 20092760.12177.52760.1582.62558.17.9%

Jul 20093090.32517.03090.3573.32848.78.5%

Aug 20093359.12866.23359.1493.03083.78.9%

Sep 20093646.03160.93646.0485.13409.26.9%

Oct 20093809.93399.43850.6451.33685.93.4%

Nov 20093837.43345.93842.8496.93647.45.2%

Dec 20093130.12840.43472.0631.63086.61.4%

Jan 20102303.92055.92382.9327.02236.73.0%

Feb 20101683.31464.71758.0293.31656.31.6%

Mar 20101652.41266.11659.6393.61552.36.4%

Apr 20102011.11436.42011.1574.71773.813.4%

May 20102419.71839.52419.7580.12200.610.0%

Jun 20102740.12177.52760.1582.62558.17.1%

Jul 20102965.82517.03090.3573.32848.74.1%

Aug 20103152.82866.23359.1493.03083.72.2%

Sep 20103507.63160.93646.0485.13409.22.9%

Oct 20103850.63399.43850.6451.33685.94.5%

Nov 20103768.93345.93842.8496.93647.43.3%

Dec 20103111.12840.43472.0631.63086.60.8%

Jan 20112307.72055.92382.9327.02236.73.2%

Feb 20111723.71464.71758.0293.31656.34.1%

Mar 20111580.61266.11659.6393.61552.31.8%

Apr 20111789.11436.42011.1574.71773.80.9%

May 20112187.61839.52419.7580.12200.6-0.6%

Jun 20112529.72177.52760.1582.62558.1-1.1%

Jul 20112774.32517.03090.3573.32848.7-2.6%

Aug 20113019.72866.23359.1493.03083.7-2.1%

Sep 20113415.93160.93646.0485.13409.20.2%

Oct 20113804.43399.43850.6451.33685.93.2%

Nov 20113842.83345.93842.8496.93647.45.4%

Dec 20113472.02840.43472.0631.63086.612.5%

Jan 20122858.22055.92382.9327.02236.727.8%

Feb 20122222.61464.71758.0293.31656.334.2%

Mar 20122065.71266.11659.6393.61552.333.1%

Apr 20122250.91436.42011.1574.71773.826.9%

May 20122652.11839.52419.7580.12200.620.5%

Jun 20122983.02177.52760.1582.62558.116.6%

Jul 20123238.52517.03090.3573.32848.713.7%

Aug 20123444.72866.23359.1493.03083.711.7%

Sep 20123760.73160.93646.0485.13409.210.3%

Oct 20123982.63399.43850.6451.33685.98.0%

Nov 20123929.43345.93842.8496.93647.47.7%

Dec 20123362.02840.43472.0631.63086.68.9%

Jan 20132588.92055.92382.9327.02236.715.7%

Feb 20132026.31464.71758.0293.31656.322.3%

Mar 20131913.21266.11659.6393.61552.323.2%

Apr 20132138.01436.42011.1574.71773.820.5%

May 20132565.71839.52419.7580.12200.616.6%

Jun 20132921.82177.52760.1582.62558.114.2%

Jul 20133203.22517.03090.3573.32848.712.4%

Aug 20133430.22866.23359.1493.03083.711.2%

Sep 20133758.63160.93646.0485.13409.210.3%

Oct 20134001.43399.43850.6451.33685.98.6%

Nov 20133960.03345.93842.8496.93647.48.6%

Dec 20133395.12840.43472.0631.63086.610.0%



*Deviation from 2007 - 2011 average

MonthForecast

Jan 2012-3000

Jan 20124500

Fig19

2055.8812055.881327.014-3000-0.0808453172

1464.691464.69293.3324500-0.1156671973

1266.0661266.066393.58-0.1844136562

1436.4021436.402574.699-0.1902314219

1839.5431839.543580.117-0.1640599914

2177.5482177.548582.585-0.1487475626

2517.0232517.023573.282-0.1164397502

2866.1642866.164492.954-0.0705484086

3160.9183160.918485.06-0.0728206379

3399.3813399.381451.26-0.0777397514

3345.9113345.911496.858-0.0826607188

2840.3632840.363631.637-0.0797631898

2133.2332055.881327.014-0.0462623559

1758.0221464.69293.3320.0614372477

1659.6461266.066393.580.0691264224

1909.9161436.402574.6990.0767110904

2374.8091839.543580.1170.0791799136

2760.1332177.548582.5850.0789980032

3090.3052517.023573.2820.0848016318

3359.1182866.164492.9540.0893087663

3645.9783160.918485.060.0694600608

3809.8673399.381451.260.0336260885

3837.4243345.911496.8580.0520960581

3130.0762840.363631.6370.0140996604

2303.8582055.881327.0140.0300216157

1683.3341464.69293.3320.016343031

1652.4131266.066393.580.0644670002

2011.1011436.402574.6990.1337539193

2419.661839.543580.1170.0995614678

2740.0562177.548582.5850.0711494528

2965.782517.023573.2820.0410891429

3152.7612866.164492.9540.0223904594

3507.6463160.918485.060.0288836917

3850.6413399.381451.260.0446881729

3768.9053345.911496.8580.033310391

3111.0852840.363631.6370.0079468492

2307.6752055.881327.0140.0317281412

1723.7131464.69293.3320.0407225749

1580.5651266.066393.580.0181832776

1789.0531436.402574.6990.0085748307

2187.591839.543580.117-0.0058976586

2529.7392177.548582.585-0.0110681878

2774.2782517.023573.282-0.0261345396

3019.7342866.164492.954-0.0207480898

3415.9063160.918485.060.0019739665

3804.353399.381451.260.0321293131

3842.7693345.911496.8580.0535614822

34722840.363631.6370.1248781247

2858.22857142862055.881327.0140.2778726862

2222.61464.69293.3320.3419345303

2065.6641266.066393.580.3306789293

2250.9391436.402574.6990.2689620827

2652.0781839.543580.1170.2051787352

2983.0252177.548582.5850.1661314938

3238.4522517.023573.2820.1368062422

3444.7482866.164492.9540.1170772191

3760.6983160.918485.060.1031104169

3982.6153399.381451.260.0804930368

3929.3723345.911496.8580.0773051902

3362.0192840.363631.6370.0892458606

2588.9012055.881327.0140.1574602215

2026.3461464.69293.3320.2234426652

1913.1571266.066393.580.2324355308

2138.0441436.402574.6990.2053177661

2565.7481839.543580.1170.1659479584

2921.7552177.548582.5850.1421796742

3203.2022517.023573.2820.1244322993

3430.1722866.164492.9540.1123504531

3758.643160.918485.060.1025067521

4001.4243399.381451.260.0855959638

3960.013345.911496.8580.085705127

3395.0912840.363631.6370.0999607135

Deviation from 2007 - 2011 average

Storage level


billion cubic feet


Storage Level

Natural gas storage range - low

Natural gas storage range - high

Forecast

Deviation from average

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage

Fig20


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