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    Third-PartyLogistics

    Market Analysis

    Presented by:

    Richard Armstrong

    Armstrong &Associates, Inc.

    100 Business Park Circle, Suite 202

    Stoughton, WI 53589

    Email: [email protected]

    Phone: 608-873-8929

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Transportation TrendsFiscal Year 2004 2nd Half Recovery

    Trucking Capacity

    Cost Factors

    Labor/Driver

    Equipment Costs

    Price Rises LTL TL

    Copyright 2003 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    National Diesel Fuel Prices 2004 vs. 2003

    Source: U.S. Department of Energy

    $1.00

    $1.10

    $1.20

    $1.30

    $1.40

    $1.50

    $1.60

    $1.70

    $1.80

    $1.90

    Wee

    k1

    Wee

    k4

    Wee

    k8

    Wee

    k12

    Wee

    k16

    Wee

    k20

    Wee

    k24

    Wee

    k28

    Wee

    k32

    Wee

    k36

    Wee

    k40

    Wee

    k44

    Wee

    k48

    Wee

    k52

    2003 2004

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    Monthly Truck Tonnage Index

    Source: ATA

    120.0

    130.0

    140.0

    150.0

    160.0

    170.0

    JAN

    FEB

    MAR

    APR

    MAY

    JUN

    JUL

    AUG

    SEP

    OCT

    NOV

    DEC

    2002 2003 2004

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    Top 25 Global 3PLs

    2003Rank 3PL

    2003 3PLrevenue

    ($m) Summary

    1Exel plcwww.exel.com 7,200

    Worlds largest 3PL divides revenues between transportation

    management and contract logistics. Emphasis on lead logistics role.

    2Kuehne & Nagel International AGwww.kuehne-nagel.com 6,900

    Worlds largest ocean freight forwarder, fifth largest air forwarder.

    Broadening contract logistics with acquisitions.

    3

    Schenkerwww.schenkerusa.com 6,400

    Key transportation and distribution company in Europe, builds shared

    networks globally

    4DHL Danzas Air & Oceanwww.dhl.com 5,700

    Strong brand in Europe and Asia, building on Airborne acquisition inthe U.S.

    5P&O Nedlloydwww.ponl.com 4,800

    Focus on global container logistics. Operations in the U.S. mostly inwarehousing

    6TPG/TNTwww.tnt.com 4,700

    Worlds largest automotive logistics 3PL. Also master of value-addedwarehousing and manufacturing support. Rapid expansion in Asia.

    7

    Panalpinawww.panalpina.com 4,600

    Freight forwarder, mainly airfreight operations but increasing ocean

    forwarder and project logistics

    8UPS Supply Chain Solutionswww.ups-scs.com 4,100

    Largest North American-based 3PL. Revenues evenly dividedbetween U.S. and international operations.

    9Nippon Expresswww.nipponexpress.com 4,000

    Freight forwarder with procedures and systems for handling globaltransportation

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    Top 25 Global 3PLs cont.

    10C.H. Robinson Worldwidewww.chrobinson.com 3,600

    Multi-faceted 3PL and freight broker with majority of revenues from foodand beverage. Growing transportation operations in Europe and Brazil

    11Menlo Worldwidewww.menloworldwide.com 3,100

    Solid inbound supply chain management and good finished goodsdistribution management.

    12

    Expeditors International ofWashingtonwww.expeditors.com 2,600 Freight forwarder with a strong business in China and Asia

    13Penske Logisticswww.penskelogistics.com 2,500

    Automotive operations are half of the business. Strong dedicatedcontract carriage and transportation routing Usually functions as leadlogistics provider.

    14Eagle Global Logisticswww.eaglegl.com 2,200

    International forwarding and transportation management with a heavyshipment emphasis.

    15NYK Logisticswww.nykline.com 2,200

    Put together in 2001 by combining three businesses covering retail,manufacturing and intermodal; added to existing forwarding andwarehousing operations.

    16BAX Globalwww.baxglobal.com 2,000

    Heavyweight airfreight carrier and forwarder. Also strong crossdock.transportation and value-added warehousing.

    17Ryderwww.ryder.com 1,900

    Large U.S. dedicated contract carrier. Expanding inbound supply chainmanagement and distribution capabilities.

    18Schneider Logisticswww.schneiderlogistics.com 1,900

    Premier automotive logistics transportation management 3PL. In U.S.and Europe, Large network of carriers in all modes.

    19UTi Worldwidewww.go2uti.com 1,200

    Aggressive forwarder, recently acquired value-added warehousingoperation.

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    Top 25 Global 3PLs cont.

    20Caterpillar Logisticswww.catlogistics.com 1,000

    Global transportation, logistics and supply chain systems network builton parent company's capabilities.

    21APL Logisticswww.apllogistics.com 990

    Strong Asian base. Retail focus and good consolidation/deconsolidationoperations.

    22Wilson Logistics Groupwww.wilsonlog.com 860

    Swedish forwarder with contract logistics capabilities. Recentexpansions in India, China, Germany and Malaysia.

    23FedEx Supply Chain Serviceswww.fedex.com 603

    Transportation and supply chain solutions. Relies on operationalcapabilities of other FedEx companies.

    24Maersk Logisticswww.maersk-logistics.com 350

    Asian retail focus. Majority of business is warehousing and distribution.Also strong ocean forwarding and consolidation capabilities.

    25SembCorp Logistics (USA) Inc.www.semblog.com 275

    Focus remains in Southeast Asia. Expanding rapidly in India and China.Owns 20% of Kuehne & Nagel.

    Total 2003 Logistics Revenue

    77,708

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    3PL Service Categories (2002)

    Transportation Management 21.7%

    Warehousing 20.6%

    Value-Added 19.3%

    International 9.4%

    Integrated Solutions 8.5%

    Dedicated Contract Carriage 7.4%

    Intermodal 4.6%

    Lead Logistics 4.0%

    Other 2.9%

    eFulfillment 1.6%

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    3PL Vertical Focus

    Retail

    Food

    Technology

    Automotive

    Expeditors

    APL

    Maersk

    USFUSCO/K&N

    SIRVA

    Menlo

    Cat Logistics

    TNT

    SLI

    Ryder

    Standard/UTi

    DSC

    Tibbet & Britten

    CH Robinson

    Exel

    Kenco

    Landstar

    TLC

    Americold

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    Selected 3PLs Net Revenues by Segment

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

    01000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    8000

    9000

    10000

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

    Value-Added Whse/Dist., Asset-Based Transportation, Asset-Based (DCC)

    International, Non-Asset Based Domestic, Non-Asset Based

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    Trucking Capacity & Seasonality

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120140

    J F M A M J J A S O N D

    Month

    %ofCa

    pacity

    Capacity

    Demand

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    Cost Reduction via Mode Shifting

    $-

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $300

    $350

    $400

    Packag

    eLT

    L TL

    CostperCWT

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    Optimization Process Example

    STRIPOUT/FILTER SHIPMENTS

    (Rail box cars, UPS, expedited loads, etc.)

    RUN CONSOLIDATION ROUTINEPackageto LTL, LTL to TL

    (Usingreal rates--mode shifting optimization)

    RUN MATHEMATICALNETWORK FLOW

    (To isolate TL carriers by available capacity)

    EXPORT RESULTS(For logistics engineer review)

    RUN MIXEDINTEGER PROGRAM

    (To find end-to-end best routes)

    ORDER/SHIPMENT INPUT

    Daily Transportation Management

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    Inventory Diagnostic:Evaluating Two Networks

    Current Network Optimal Network

    Total Cost: $69,500,000Avg Distance to Customer: 750 Miles

    Total Cost: $61,800,000Avg Distance to Customer: 315 Miles

    Determine the inventory implications ofhaving extra distribution centers

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    Inventory Diagnostic:Inventory Results For Two Networks

    Baseline (2 DCs) Optimization (6 DCs) Savings

    Warehouse Holding Cost 916,074$ 1,205,149$ -32%

    Safety Stock 168,698$ 457,773$ -171%

    Cycle Stock 747,376$ 747,376$ 0%

    Customer Holding Cost 1,457,246$ 1,326,265$ 9%

    Safety Stock 695,126$ 564,146$ 19%Cycle Stock 762,119$ 762,119$ 0%

    In-Transit Holding Cost 926,134$ 1,027,266$ -11%

    Plant-Warehouse 220,452$ 598,574$ -172%

    Warehouse-Customer 705,682$ 428,693$ 39%

    Production Holding Cost 106,768$ 106,768$ 0%

    TOTAL 6,705,675$ 7,224,129$ -8%

    LogicNet Cost 69,500,000$ 64,100,000$ 8%

    TOTAL 76,205,675$ 71,324,129$ 6%

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    U.S. Warehousing Generalities

    Total U.S. warehousing space: 6.2 billion sq. ft.

    Total U.S. warehousing cost: $78 billion*

    For-hire public/contract warehouse space: 800 million sq. ft.

    Total U.S. warehousemen: 800

    Total U.S. VAWD 3PLs: 200

    Total Public/Contract Revenue: $21-22 billion

    *Source: Cass Information Systems, Inc.

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    Top 25 Warehousemen

    Rank Company Headquarters Total NA 2003 Warehouse Space1 Exel Westerville, OH 73.32 UPS SCS Atlanta, GA 28.63 APL Logistics Oakland, CA 264 AmeriCold Logistics Atlanta, GA 215 Caterpillar Logistics Morton, IL 206 GENCO Distribution Pittsburgh, PA 177 Kenco Logistics Chattanooga, TN 178 TNT Logistics NA Jacksonville, FL 179 EGL, Inc. Houston, TX 1510 Ryder Miami, FL 1511 Kuehne & Nagel NA Hamden, CT 1412 Ozburn-Hessey Logistics Nashville, TN 1413 NFI Industries Vineland, NJ 1414 Menlo Worldwide Redwood City, CA 13.515 DSC Logistics Des Plaines, IL 1316 Standard Corporation Columbia, SC 1117 MBX Logistics Orlando, FL 1018 CCW Group Greensboro, NC 1019 Penske Logistics Reading, PA 9.920 Jacobson Companies Des Moines, IA 921 USF Logistics Oak Brook, IL 8.522 Saddle Creek Corp. Lakeland, FL 6.423 Expeditors Intl of WA Seattle, WA 624 FedEx SCS Hudson, OH 625 Arnold Logistics Camp Hill, PA 5.3

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    Warehouse Contract Length

    0%5%

    10%

    15%

    20%25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Years

    %ofCases

    Copyright 2004 Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

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    Expected and Actual EBITDA

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    %

    ofCase

    s

    Expected

    Actual