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Citizens League

Higher Education Phase I Steering Committee

Meeting #3: July 12

• To consider whether the economy and employments are facing a “breakpoint” of discontinuous change that requires transformational change in higher education

• To imagine and design what higher education might look like in this new economic world

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Today’s objectives

• Introductions• Breakpoint Change discussion• Small group design• Evaluation

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Today’s agenda

Change Itself Has Changed!

• Change actually follows patterns of momentous, seemingly unpredictable and abrupt shift

• At breakpoint, the rule change is so sharp that use of old rules not only doesn’t work, it acts as a barrier to success

• Nature parts with the past

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Breakpoint: The Cycle of Growth and Change

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Phase 1: Exploring and Inventing the Pattern

Phase 2: Extending and Improving

Phase 3: Integrating the New and Different

Breakpoints

Change Itself Has Changed!

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Date Invention Yrs to Mass Use1873 Electricity 461876 Telephone 351886 Gas Automobile 551906 Radio 221926 Television 261975 PC 161983 Mobile Phone 131994 The Web 4

“Modifications of our thinking patterns will not work. This new era requires a radical

rethinking of the most basic and foundational ways we view the world.”

--Breakpoint and Beyond, Mastering the Future Today, 1992

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Breakpoint Principles

(1) Create what has never existed before(2) Make deep and powerful interdependent

connections with one another(3) Be pulled into a new kind of future, not

pushed by the past

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Are We at a Breakpoint?

From Saturday (July 9) NYT:• The unemployment rate rise to 9.2%. “Economists

were stunned.”• “This fall, for the first time, the University of

California will take in more from student tuition than state finances.”

• Regarding the last shuttle flight: “These days, my pet fantasy for exploring the universe is downloading human consciousness to machines.”

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• The workforce is aging

• Retirements will increase sharply

• The number of new, young labor force entrants will decline

• The workforce will grow much more slowly

• Economic growth will depend increasingly on productivity growth

January 2011 Marked The Beginning Of A New Demographic Era

First Impacts Will Be Felt In The Workforce & Economic Growth

Minnesota’s Labor Force Is AgingIn 1990, the peak was 30; in 2009 it was 46

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10,000

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60,000

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Labo

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2009

1990, 2007 ACS, smoothed 3 year averages

Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply

Some Other Considerations In The Labor Market

• More retirees and fewer younger workers should improve opportunities for job seekers

• But employers may respond in other ways1. Increase focus on productivity gains, filling jobs on less than

a one-for-one basis2. Relocate jobs to other, more favorable labor markets3. Recruit workers from other markets

• Alternative responses may be heightened with a growing skills mismatch.

The Old Normal+ The Great Recession

+ Long Run Demographic Changes= The New Normal

Forces for change are heightened during periods of economic stress

Wholesale program changes will happenDisruptive changes are not evolutionarySome game changers will occur There will be short term losers as well as winnersA set of new opportunities are revealed

Creative Destruction/Disruptive Innovation Will Occur

• Knowledge of mechanical and electrical engineering processes

• Ability to work with computerized systems• Ability to read and write machine programming code• Ability to read manufacturing blueprints• Ability to operate automated manufacturing systems• Understanding of hydraulic, pneumatic, and electrical

systems

What are some of the skills that modern manufacturers look for?

Small Group ExerciseSix Scenarios: Two Students

Jose: 3 years old, first generation immigrant. Parents speak limited English and have manual labor employment.

Sheila: 3 years old. Parents are a university professor and corporate executive.

Future Employment

• Assembly worker• Attorney• Has no idea!

Concept DesignAssignment: Design a learning path for this student, based

on the selected occupation. 1. What assumptions about the future are you basing your

design on? (e.g., demographic, fiscal, economic, technology)2. What skills and knowledge will the student have acquired

from K-12?3. How does the student gain an understanding of the

knowledge/skills needed to make sound career/education choices?

4. Describe the interface between employment and education. 5. What does the student’s post-secondary education look like—

how is it delivered; when?6. How much does post-secondary cost and who pays for it?

Six Scenarios: Rules

1. Forget your pet ideas.2. As unknowable as the future is, base your concept on

realistic assumptions for the future (e.g., demographic change, crazy changes in technology, institutional capacities for change).

3. Design something you’d be proud of.4. Don’t get tripped up in the details of implementation.5. Have fun!