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23. November 2017
Robert SchroederCLEAN ENERGY PACKAGEREGIONAL COOPERATIONMARKET DESIGNADEQUACYRISK PREPAREDNES
FGE Kolloquium
IAEW, RWTH Aachen
Clean Energy Package
Page 2
Regional Cooperation
Market Design
Adequacy
Risk Preparedness
CEP timelines & process
4
Click to edit Master title style
EP reports on the Clean Energy Package
2016-2019 Clean Energy Package overview
2019
2017
2018
Netherlands
Slovakia
Malta
EstoniaState of the Energy Union
Bulgaria
Austria
Romania
Council European Commission European Parliament
Finland New European Parliament mandateNew European Commission mandate
2020
Clean Energy Package Electricity regulation & Directive Energy Union Governance Regulation ACER Regulation Risk preparedness Regulation RES Directive Energy Efficiency Directive Energy Performance of Buildings
Council
EPEC
CEP implementation
ITRE votes –
Dec (tbc)
TRILOGUES
Review of positions and priorities
Page 6
Where we were in the past Where we might go in the future
Large, steerable, and centralised generation
One-way flow to consumers with predictable demand pattern
Where we are now
A paradigm shift in the power system:
gearing up for the transformation
Mixed generation portfolio of distributed, CCGTs and low carbon technologies
Suite of new technology assets & services
Engaged, active, prosumers
Further electrification of transport
Smart, data-centric system
Increasing proportion of small, intermittent and decentralised generation
Bidirectional flows at all voltage levels
Reduced thermal generation
Increasing smart technologies
The Energy Transition:What does it mean for Europe?
27% renewables by 2030 = +/- 45% for the power system
NEW CHALLENGES
• System stability
• Resource variability
• New connections
• Changed power flows
• Integrating demand-side resources
• Empowering consumers & managing
data
• Unlocking flexibility
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Flow
North-south
Flow
North-East
South-West
From asset……………………………………..……to smart optimization of generation and load
September 2016 in Denmark, one week
(source Energinet.dk)
The FLEXIBILITY challenge:The changing role of our networks and customers
HOW TO TACKLE COMPLEXITY?
Implement the
EU codes
Strengthen the
grid
Enhance
existing
cooperation at
all levels
REGIONAL
COOPERATION
EU
National
Regulators & ACER
TSOs & ENTSO-E
Distribution
Stakeholders
flow based
bidding zones
reviewIncluding links inside
countries
Regional security
coordinators
Enabling more
RES &
demand response
connections
Develop Policy
Regions to promote
progress and speed
CEP: right framework for future challenges?The EC proposals address the majority of issues
Active customer
Scarcity pricing
Removal of price caps
Easier supplier switching
Risk preparedness framework
European resource adequacy
Ambitious Regional Cooperation
Develop Policy
Regions to promote
progress and speed
ENTSO-E’s take on the Clean Energy Package
Positive about:
Active customer
Scarcity pricing
Removal of price caps
Easier supplier switching
Risk preparedness
Regional regulators’ and Member
States’ cooperation
Improvements
desired on:
Regional Operaional
Centers
Some market
aspects
TSO-DSO
cooperation
Resource adequacy
Clean Energy Package
Page 13
Regional Cooperation
Market Design
Adequacy
Risk Preparedness
CORESO (2008)
TSO in TSC and CORESO
TSO procuring services from TSC
TSO in TSC and Nordic RSC
TSC (2008)
SCC (2016)
Nordic RSC (2016)
Baltic RSC (2016)
Regional Security Coordination
Mandatory through EU Network Codes Sep 2017
Started voluntarily in 2008
Extended voluntarily in all Europe as of
2015
15
Long term planning: > 1 yearOperational
planningDispatch/
Real time
Decisions taken in one timeframe influence decisions taken in other time-frames
The grid decision timeframesRSCs Supports TSOs in Operational Planning Time-Frames
16
FTI STUDY: EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL COORDINATION & RSCS
2016 2018 2020 2022 and beyond
Full NCs & Guidelines implementation completed
Strengthening of policy cooperation between
member states / regulators
Other parties
TSOs
NRAsMember
States
Service providers
Po
licy R
eg
ion
s
Enhanced Regional
cooperation of TSOs
Security
Analysis
Capacity
Calculation
Outage
Planning
Adequacy
Forecast
Common
Grid Model
Security
Analysis
Capacity
Calculatio
n
Outage
Planning
Adequacy
Forecast
Common
Grid Model
THE 5
SERVICES
OF RSCs
RSCs operational with 5 Services
6 RSCs established
Nordic RSC (2016)
SEE-Thessaloniki RSC (2016)
SCC (2015)
TSC (2008)
Baltic RSC (2016)
CORESO (2008)
17
COMMON GRID MODEL: BASIS FOR THE SMART SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE
18
Capacity Calculation and the Common Grid Model
19
Entso-e Common Grid Model & Operational Planning Data Exchange Environment
EU Regional Security Coordinators (RSCs):A dynamic and efficient approach to realise the benefits of regionalisation
Support TSOs in maintaining system security
and optimisation of operations
Delivery of 5 standard services by end-2017 to
all TSOs
ENTSO-E ensures interoperability
YES to
• Ambitious regional TSO cooperation
• Incremental, dynamic & modular
approach
NO to
• transfer of decision-making on secure
system operations to RSCs
Stronger Member States’ and NRAs’ regional cooperation is crucial.
Clean Energy Package
Page 21
Regional Cooperation
Market Design
Adequacy
Risk Preparedness
22
Improve price signals
• Enable scarcity pricing in all
timeframes
• Integrate RES into the
market by removing priority
dispatch & make them
balance responsible
• Complete integration of ID
and balancing markets to
increase liquidity
Enhance Demand
Response
• Open participation to all
markets directly, via
supplier or via aggregator
• Dynamic pricing and
hedging opportunities
• Easy to switch suppliers
• Data management, smart
meters and hubs
Stronger cooperation
• Regional TSO cooperation
• Stronger NRAs’ and MSs’
cooperation
• Policy regions
• DSO-TSO coordinated use
of distributed flexibilities
• “EU Framework" for CRM
• Adequacy-based
• Cross-border
participation
Stronger and more interconnected European grid realising investments of TYNDP
How to improve further market design?
OPERATIONS
PLANNINGDATA
MARKETS
An integrated approach to flexibility:
enhanced TSO-DSO cooperation
Link wholesale and retail markets
Unlock demand response's potential
One single market for demand
response
Define observability needs
Active power management impacting
balancing and congestion in
transmission to be overseen by TSOs
Define roles of TSOs and DSOs
Define data needs to fulfil regulated
tasks
Using existing standards developed at
the European level (CIM format)
IT architecture for data management
More information exchange
Coordination of the assessment of
connection capacity
Clean Energy Package
Page 24
Regional Cooperation
Market Design
Adequacy
Risk Preparedness
One adequacy methodology for
European, regional and national
assessmentCommon adequacy
indicators as a basis
for regionally
coordinated national
security of supply
standards
Coordinated
management of
simultaneous scarcity
situations in all
timeframes
25
Regional TSOs’, NRAs’
and Member States’
cooperation
ENTSO-E’s system adequacy methodology:A basis for enhancements of market design and integration & security of
supply
Click to edit Master title styleResource Adequacy Methodology
Page 26
Market modelingbased on
probabilisticsmethod
Hourly resolution
Cross-border contributions to a country’s system
adequacy
Assessment about 'need for flexibility'
Demand, renewable production variation
LOLE/ ENS/ RES curtailments,
capacity factors
Common basis for
discussions on market design
and security of supply at a
regional and European level.
To be used by MS, on the
basis of their national
sensitivities and specificities, to
guide their decisions on
capacity mechanisms, support
schemes, and security of
supply.
Reliability standards throughout Europe
Large variation in reliability standards and thresholds
So
urc
e: A
CE
R/C
EE
R m
on
ito
rin
g r
ep
ort
of IE
M (
20
16
)
Common assumptions needed: isolated or interconnected?27
Pag
e
28
ENS [MWh/y] Energy Not Served: is the energy not supplied by generating system due to the demand exceeding the available generation and import
LOLE [h/y] Loss Of Load Expectation: is the number of hours in a year in which the available generation plus import cannot cover the load in an region.
How to read probabilistic results?
Impact of extreme climate conditions: example of 1985
Extreme climate conditions have large impact on results
Common standards needed: data, models, metrics
1985
29
Mothballing sensitivity large uncertainty…
Importance to have reliable generation plan from utility (min 3-5 years)
Crucial to get a clear picture
15% capacity reduction vs. base case
Mothballing in 45% of the countries significantly impacts adequacy in 82% of the countries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
PL
DE
FR
HU
AT
BE
ITs
HR
GR IE
DK
e
LT
ITcn
BA FI
BG
RS
SK
CY
ITn
ITsa
r
LV
Mo
thb
alle
d c
ap
acity [M
W]
30
…with wide effect strong interdependency
Significant impact on adequacy in a larger region
Coordinated studies needed
2025 - Average LOLE for base
case and mothballing sensitivity
LOLE’s increase in
country with mothballing
LOLE’s increase in
country without
mothballing
Bidding Zone with
mothballing capacity,
negligible LOLE
NO mothballing
capacity, negligible
LOLE
31
Benefit from spatial aggregation
32
Intuitively speaking, two countries do not
face the most critical ramp at the exact
same time due to:
• habitual differences between countries
(e.g. different working time schedule,
different mealtimes among countries,
etc.)
• climatic conditions & spatial
dependencies
• time zone differences
Sp
atia
l (P
ea
rso
n’s
) co
rre
latio
ns c
alc
ula
ted
fro
m G
erm
an
on
sh
ore
re
gio
n
34
_D
E u
sin
g th
e s
imu
late
d w
ind
ge
ne
ration
da
ta
fro
m th
e 2
05
0 s
ce
na
rio
Benefit from spatial aggregation
33
16.7 GW21.4 GW
53.9 GW
+0.8 GW
+2.1 GW
+22.2 GW
DE DE DE
TR
GB
FR FR
FR
ES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
DE+FR Aggregated PLEF Aggregated ENTSO-E Aggregated
99
.9th
Per
cen
tile
Ho
url
y R
amp
s [G
W]
The aggregation (=interconnection) has
a balancing effect on the residual load.
While in one country the residual load
goes up, in another is possibly goes
down and thus the region can be
balanced via transmission of energy.
5%
10%
41%
Clean Energy Package
Page 34
Regional Cooperation
Market Design
Adequacy
Risk Preparedness
@ENTSO-E All rights reserved
New regulation on Risk Preparedness:Fully supported by ENTSO-E
35
Getting prepared for risks is key concern
for TSOs
Seamless cooperation
between national and pan-European risk preparedness
The ECG is appropriate governance
structure
Cybersecurity and prevention against malicious acts call
for protection of critical data
Costs of risk preparedness to be covered by tariffs
Realistic timelines for implementation
needed
@ENTSO-E All rights reserved
Regional assessments
36
Identification of electricity crisis
(Art 5, RPP)
• Start with existing experiences
• Build consistent national/ regional/ Pan-European methodologies
• Ensure sufficient confidentiality for critical information
Short term adequacy assessment (Art 8, RPP)
• Build on existing approaches
• More severe scenarios
• Consistency between seasonal and week ahead assessments
Summer Outlook–Severe Conditions
Page 37
Week 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
AL
AT
BA
BE
BG
CH
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GB
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
ME
MK
MT
NI
NL
NO
PL
PT
RO
RS
SE
SI
SK
TR
UA_W
ITn
ITcn
ITcs
ITs
ITsar
ITsic
Capacity excess (export)
Import driven by market
Import needed for adequacy
15% of deficit cannot be covered with imports
Sensitivity with Italy split into 6 Bidding Zones
Lessons learnt from past winter cold spells (cf. Report Board 22 March)
Page 38
South East cold spell not expected, because crisis situation (1 in 69 years in BG)
Seasonal Outlook not a forecast (no reliable 6 month ahead weather forecast)
Daily aver. temp.
6 Jan to 5 Feb 2017
(compared to normal)
Normal condition
Severe condition
Crisis situation
(Risk Preparedness)
