Climate Action Team- Public Health

Work Group

Health and Wildfire in a Changing

Climate

July 22, 2014

What CAL FIRE projects in terms of wildfire frequency, intensity, and extent?

CAL FIRE wildfire risk projections (i.e. where wildfires are more likely to occur and how this may affect populations (people))?

CAL FIRE’s recommendations to protect same people from wildfire impacts?

CAL FIRE Programs aimed at addressing these issues (FireSTEPP and VMP)

CAL FIRE’s Guiding Document, 2010 California Strategic Fire Plan.

Plan VISION

A natural environment that is more resilient and man-made assets which are more resistant to the occurrence and effects of wildland fire through local, state, federal and private partnerships.

GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

Goals Through government and community collaboration, the following goals will enhance the protection of lives, property and natural resources from wildland fire, as well as improve environmental resilience to wildland fire. Community protection includes promoting the safety of the public and emergency responders, as well as protection of property and other improvements. Each goal listed here is meant to

build upon the previous one (e.g., Goal 3 builds upon the accomplishments in Goals 1 and 2). Although full attainment of a goal is ultimately dependent upon the success of previous goals, any of the goals can be worked on at any given time based on available funding and other opportunities.

Plan Goals 1. Identify and evaluate wildland fire hazards and recognize life, property and natural

resource assets at risk, including watershed, habitat, social and other values of functioning ecosystems. Facilitate the sharing of all analyses and data collection across all ownerships for consistency in type and kind.

2. Articulate and promote the concept of land use planning as it relates to fire risk and individual landowner objectives and responsibilities.

3. Support and participate in the collaborative development and implementation of wildland fire protection plans and other local, county and regional plans that address fire protection and landowner objectives.

4. Increase awareness, knowledge and actions implemented by individuals and communities to reduce human loss and property damage from wildland fires, such as defensible space and other fuels reduction activities, fire prevention and fire safe building standards.

5. Develop a method to integrate fire and fuels management practices with landowner priorities and multiple jurisdictional efforts within local, state and

federal responsibility areas.

6. Determine the level of fire suppression resources necessary to protect the values and assets at risk identified during planning processes.

7. Address post-fire responsibilities for natural resource recovery, including watershed protection, reforestation and ecosystem restoration.

What CAL FIRE projects in terms of wildfire frequency, intensity, and extent?

Predictive Se ■ rv1ces

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

~ ~ CC:,

Hawaii D

.,w,'

July 2014

Significant Wildland Fire Potential - Above Norma l ~ In creasing to Above Normal

Decreasi ng to Below Norma l

Retu rn ing to Normal

Above normal significa nt w ildland fire potent ial indicates a higher th an usual likelihood th at w ildland fi res will occur and/or bec ome significa nt events. W ldl an d fir es are st ill expected to occur during forecasted normal co nditions as would usually be expected during the outloo k period . Significa nt wild land fires are still possible but less like ly than usual during forecasted be low normal pe riods.

Puerto Rico

ii Map prod uced by

Pred ic:t ive Se rv ices , National lnteragency Coordination Ce nter

Bo ise , Ida ho Issued July 1, 201 4

Next issuance August 1, 20 14

7 Day Outlook

Legend

Fuel Dryn.ess

- Mlllst- ume m 11Drts1;'fc. 1c.1 e nres.

Dry • nslull laige il!<s

In Ille allGooce al B ~ IJ~ Rlsl!"E!Yl!fll.

- Very dry - LM /1.!l:xfoo;;le rt!& or IEllJl !Ires ~ IIJe

e.1:6eooe cf a "HI;! Rist:' ...... nt.

- Data l-"a, Ebia .

High Risk Events

W Wind

H Dlaml Dry

, LIJl1'rll11JI

National 7-day Significant

Fire P:otential outlook

NOOI • atll coast N0112-w:l OCE.'S.l

Callfoml a - North Ar,ea 7 Day

Significant Fire Poient .a l

N0113A -~ Araa-Marile

NOOll - E'astSIDe

'111/eat'her

'" Thu11ders1onr1s. Ylitih Rai nla I Through Tuesday • •

Moisl ums1eble coodi ave, !he orth C!ps region d coo • !he shcmer and wet !hunder5lonn chances 1hrough Tues>Oa)' . The ac • · ~ d be focused in eB!l and saut'llem a:reas, bui ii d gra:lual ly drifl no a:rd end focus oo 11113 oortrnem he~ of 1hle l\loir1hl Cp9 area 1e tod;.y and Tue:sdB')', wlli sou m a.re.as begi rn tocle'ar. A dire<:t liln from a !hunder5lonn can yield 0.50-1 .DD inches o rainfal l.

Low pre:;-swr,ed 51 be eve Pa:cific hu;e51 on Wedne-sdB')' , lbwt for !he h Ops area condi1ions will be sunny. cty and breeZ')' . '51/1-"rll winds guslingta 25-30 mph east ,al~ ca,e:1PltSierra cmwtYlfdoe:sdn m;rv euw tJoldP'itr iqoi1Jion51frgm W?e:Dt nahW!irna l9 rBR:idbr 9IPW ;p rnd §:PR:Dd Warmer erd drier condi R are expected m Th rsda.y, bui wnh ~glt1er winds.

Higlil pres.-swr,e •Nil lbwikl O'!/er 1he ragiorn begirarning late n !he week and irnto ext wee'.k.end and puslil femperaluras t.p to 7-12 clegiees above raarmel · h humii:lily and poor overriglt1 RH r!!CD\'el)' in m y inland ereas. Lgh1 to local , rooderete N- E 5Urface winds ITTB')' enli.anae !hese conditions • lcmer western Sierra si(lpes to, !he ooa.-stal moontains from Thursd~ !hroogh s, d3y .

CAL FIRE wildfire risk projections (i.e. where wildfires are more likely to occur and how this may affect populations (people))?

Average Wildfire Acres by Decade

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's (to

2008)

Th

ou

san

ds

Decade

Ac

res

AGRICULTURE

CONIFER

HARDWOOD

HERBACEOUS

SHRUB

og , cres)

Model Pred[clions for ALL

.3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

* 0 *

*

1990 1992 1 9 9 4

*

ildfi re .1.cres Bumed 1890-2008

Log Linear Trend

* *

* * *

1 9 9 6 1998 2000

R-nquare , ,dj,J = .39522 p=.0119

*

* *

2002 2004

*

*

*

2006 2008

;adir-t:::ity .~

·s •, y

. . . , .... , \ _

• I

Priority Landsca~~ -t Communities Protec

1111 High

Medium

C:] Low

~ Communities

CJ

CAL FIRE’s recommendations to protect same people from wildfire impacts?

2007 New Fire Resistive Construction in the all of the SRA and the VHFHSZ.

Protective Measures for the Public LE-1 00 Program

CAL FIRE Programs aimed at addressing these issues (FireSTEPP and VMP)

Saf ty lement Review with Local Gov rnment and CEQA Findings

\\1klfitt ZortC'J

- VO) H"" H•&h

MAIN~O'IOUT'IM.I T'""'-tione......____,/ __ ..________I LOCATION KEY MAP~ ::-..:.:-..::-.:-=----·-·

- Moocn"' Lo,,

Fuel Reduction Programs