Climate and Air Quality:Investigating the Impacts of Changing Landscapes

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Seminar, Cornell UniversityApril 10, 2013

Colette L. HealdAmos P.K. Tai, Ashley R. Berg, Maria Val Martin

Atmospheric Composition is Linked to Major Environmental Issues

AIR QUALITY / HEALTH VISIBILITY ACID RAIN

CROP DAMAGE OZONE LAYERTOXIC

ACCUMULATION

CLIMATE

FERTILIZATION

Air Pollution is a Serious and Growing Public Health Issue

Number of people living in counties with air pollutant concentrations above EPA

Air Quality Standards in 2008

Fine particulate matter (complex chemical

composition)

Global premature deaths from environmental risk

[OECD, 2012]

Fine particulate

matter

Currently over 125 million Americans experience “unhealthy” air.By 2030 AQ surpasses unsafe water as the leading environmental cause of premature deaths.

Reminders from around the World of Linkages Between Air Pollution and Climate Change or Emissions

Summer 2010 Fires in Russia

55,000+ estimated deaths from smog and heatwave

Beijing “Airpocalypse” (Winter 2013)

Clear Day February 27, 2013

PM concentrations sky rocket. Remain high for several weeks. US Embassy tweets report

concentrations “beyond index” above 700 µg/m3 (EPA daily standard is 35 µg/m3).

EMISSIONS(natural & anthropogenic) CLIMATE

LAND USE CHANGE(natural & anthropogenic)

Atmospheric Composition(Air Quality)

[Tai et al., submitted]

Climate Change Alone Degrades Mean Air Quality over Continental Regions: The So-Called “Climate Penalty”

2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone due to climate change alone

Ozone is predicted to increase over polluted continental regions (meteorological factors + natural emission changes) and decrease over the ocean (due to enhanced water vapour) as

predicted by Wu et al. [2008] and others.Offsets benefits from emissions control.

GISS+GEOS-Chem

0

1

2

3

Normalized isoprene emission

CO2 concentration (ppmv)

400 800 1200

A Critical Factor in the “Climate Penalty”: Isoprene Emissions

O3

Driver for many predictions of increasing ozone, organic aerosol

and methane increases [eg. Sanderson et al., 2003; Heald et al.,

2008; Shindell et al., 2007]

CO2 inhibition implies that isoprene emissions may stay ~ constant [Heald et al., 2009].

Need to revise future air quality projections!

Present-day level

2050 level

[Possell & Hewitt 2011]

Future: NPP ↑, Temperature↑ = Isoprene ↑

BUT CO2 inhibits Isoprene Emission!

CO2 Inhibition of Isoprene Emissions Reduces Ozone Sensitivity to Climate Change

Without CO2

effect

With CO2

effect

With minus without

2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone due to climate change alone

In major populated regions, projected ozone increase due to climate change (max +6 ppbv) is

reduced by >50% (to max +3 ppbv) due to CO2 inhibition of isoprene

emission.

[Tai et al., submitted]

As a Result, Land Use Change and Climate ~Equal Players in Determining Ozone Air Quality

Land use change effect

2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone

Climate change effect

2000-to-2050 change in cropland fraction (IPCC A1B)

Land use change can offset or reverse in sign the effect of climate change on

ozone air quality.

Air quality control strategies needs to consider all three of emissions, land

use change and climate.

[Tai et al., submitted]

Climate and Air Quality Impacts on Global Crop Productivity?

f(temperature) f(O3 concentration) f(cropland area)

Rel

ativ

e Y

ield

[Mills et al. 2007]

Wheat

Ozone exposure (ppm-hour)

Tmax

Tmean

Thigh

Tbase

Day since 1 June

°C

based on Butler and Huybers

[2013]

tolerant

sensitive

Snap peas damage due to O3 exposure)Illinois heatwave summer 2012

Relative Impacts of Climate Change and Ozone Pollution on Wheat Production

2000 global wheat production(103 ton/grid cell)

Under IPCC AR5 RCP8.5, using CESM ozone and climate

[Tai et al. in prep]

2050 change due to ozone pollution 2050 combined production change

2050 change due to climate change

Large sensitivity in future crop productivity to ozone pollution & climate change (± 25% regionally). Needs to be included along-side land use change and farming practices when

considering 21st century food security.

Bark Beetle Infestation in Western North AmericaWorst beetle outbreak in recorded history: peaked in BC in 2007 and in the Western US in 2009

[Kurz et al., 2008]

Over 100,000 km2 of forest killed, continued expansion.

Impacts: carbon cycling, fire susceptibility.

What about air quality?

VOCs ↓Mortality Effect↑Attack Effect

VOCs?O3

Bark Beetles Perturbing Monoterpene Emissions

Very few quantitative studies have been done

Amin et al. (2012; 2013) measure emissions from Lodgepole pine (and

spruce) under attack by mountain pine beetle, see significant

enhancements of some emissions.

Estimated Impacts on Monoterpene Emissions

Largest impact of MPB on monoterpene emissions in British Columbia in 2004

(increase up to 70%) and in 2008 in US (increase up to 104%).

Mortality Effect

Mortality Effect + Attack Effect

VEGETATION DISTRIBUTIONS

(CLM4)

ANNUALMORTALITY

(Meddens et al., 2012)

EXPERIMENTAL VOC INCREASES

(Amin et al., 2012)

VOC EMISSIONS IN CLM4 (MEGAN2.1)

(Guenther et al., 2012)

β-pinene, β-phellandrene, 3-carene, P-cymene

2004

2008

Estimated Impacts on Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation

[Berg et al., 2013]

Mortality Effect

Mortality Effect + Attack Effect

2004

2008

VEGETATION DISTRIBUTIONS

(CLM4)

ANNUALMORTALITY

(Meddens et al., 2012)

EXPERIMENTAL VOC INCREASES

(Amin et al., 2012)

VOC EMISSIONS IN CLM4 (MEGAN2.1)

(Guenther et al., 2012)

CHAMBER SOA YIELDS (6-55%)

(Lee et al., 2006)

More muted impact on SOA (~30-40% max increases) but also more regional.

Dependent on very uncertain species-variable response: scenario using spruce

data shows up to doubling of SOA (1 µgm-3 increase). This is comparable to

the estimate of “natural” aerosol background implications for

achieving EPA Regional Haze Rule

Evidence of importance of land use change in air quality.

September 11, 2005BEFORE

September 28, 2011AFTER

5 km5 km

Grand Grand Lake, COLake, CO

Grand Grand Lake, COLake, CO

High Park fire in Colorado (June 2012) burned in area of 70% beetle-killed trees

Bark Beetle Kill in Western US Raising Fire Susceptibility?

(links between climate change, land use and air quality)

2012: Most Destructive Fires in Colorado History, with Air Quality Implications

High Park Fire (June 2012)

Waldo Canyon Fire (July 2012)

Many local exceedances of daily PM2.5 standard (over 100 µg/m3 measured in Fort Collins!)How often do these events occur?

PM2.5 at Fort Collins (near High Park Fire)

Decadal Satellite Record Shows Large Aerosol Anomalies Associated with Both Local and Transported Smoke

June 2002MODIS Terra AOD anomalies

August 2012

Hayman Fire

High Park andWaldo Fires

AZ Wallow Fire(2011)

MT, WY, ID, WA FiresAZ, CA

Fires

CA Station Fire(2009)

Vertical Distribution of Wildfire Smoke

Smoke heights measured by MISR satellite for High Park Fire

Smoke plumesSmoke clouds

Smoke plumes (esp for energetic fires) are injected aloft.But smoke clouds also observed near surface.

Air quality impacts depend on whether aerosol reaches surface

[val Martin et al., submitted]

CALIOP aerosol profile over Colorado

Future Smoke Impacts on PM

2000 2050

Increased area burned results in ~150% increase in BC and OC fire emissions

Projected annual total biomass burned

[Yue et al, submitted]

Future PM2.5 may stay constant over western US due to increased fire activity!

PM2.5PM2.5 Fires

[val Martin et al., in prep]

[Westerling et al, 2007]

A Final Word on Land Use Change: Natural Land Use Change is Highly

UncertainSame land model (CLM) driven by 8 different climate projections Very sensitive to precip

[Alo and Wang, 2008]

LAI (2100-2000)

[mm]

CONCLUSIONS

Funding Acknowledgements:

The ozone “climate penalty” is not as severe as previously suggested. Land use change and climate change are equally

important in determining near-term air quality (2050).

Initial results suggest that both ozone pollution and climate change can substantially impact crop production by 2050.

Pine beetle infestation in W North America over the last decade estimated to be responsible for up to 40% increases in SOA. Large

uncertainties in emissions response.

Smoke from wildfires in the W. US results in both local and regional air quality degradation. Increasing wildfire activity may cancel out

emissions control benefits for PM air quality in the W. US.

Land use change is the most challenging driver of atmospheric composition to predict, and is a key uncertainty in chemistry-

climate projections.