© ECMWF June 4, 2019

Climate & Atmosphere: Data and information in the Copernicus

Core Services

J. Garces de Marcilla, ECMWF

Torino, 30 May 2019

October 29, 2014 2EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

International organization supported

by 34 states

European cooperation:

Pool resources together to address

critical research problems in medium-

range NWP that no one country could

tackle on its own

24/7 operational centre

Copernicus

T h e S e n t i n e l s

4

SENTINEL-1: 4-40m resolution, 3 day revisit at equator

Polar-orbiting, all-weather, day-and-night radar imaging

S1A and 1B in orbit

SENTINEL-2: 10-60m resolution, 5 days revisit time

S2A and 2B in orbit

Polar-orbiting, multispectral optical, high-resolution imaging

SENTINEL-3: 300-1200m resolution, <2 days revisit

S3A and S3B in orbit

Optical and altimeter mission monitoring sea and land parameters

SENTINEL-4: 8km resolution, 60 min revisit time

1st Launch 2020

Payload for atmosphere chemistry monitoring on MTG-S

SENTINEL-5p: 7-68km resolution, 1 day revisit

S5P in orbitMission to reduce data gaps between Envisat, and Sentinel 5

SENTINEL-5: 7.5-50km resolution, 1 day revisit

1st Launch 2021

Payload for atmosphere chemistry monitoring on MetOp 2ndGen

SENTINEL-6: 10 day revisit time

1st Launch 2020

Radar altimeter to measure sea-surface height globally

Copernicus @ ECMWF

5EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

• Entrusted Entity for:

• Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

• Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

• Operational centre for floods and fire components of CEMS

• ~ 75% of the CAMS and C3S budget is subcontracted (more

than 300 entities from 30 European countries)

AtmosphereMonitoring

W H Y I N F O R M A T I O N S E R V I C E S A R E N E E D E D ?

Example: NO2 tropospheric column from Copernicus Sentinel-5P (7/10/2018)

Observations are essential, but direct use is generally limited:• gaps in space and time• observed quantities may not be

directly relevant (vertical column vs nose-level concentration)

What we do:• blend observations (satellite and in-

situ) with model to provide a consistent 3D “picture”

• forecasts, some days ahead• Reanalyses over past years, decades

AtmosphereMonitoring

T H E C A M S P O R T F O L I O

Solar radiation and UV index

Ozone layer

Bottom-up

emissions and

surface fluxes of

greenhouse gases

Global analyses, forecasts and

reanalysis (2003-2018)

NO2

European Air

Quality, pollen

and products in

support of policy

users

Radiative forcing

AtmosphereMonitoring

C A M S : b i g d a t a f o r l o c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s

CAMS expert

Expert user

Downstream applications

CAMS provides big data with the corresponding technical and scientific expertise to support expert users.

AtmosphereMonitoring

C A M S G L O B A L A N D R E G I O N A L F O R E C A S T S

• Twice daily (based 00, 12) NRT global analyses and forecasts up to +120h, 40km resolution

• Daily (based 00) NRT European analyses and forecasts up to +96h, 10 km resolution

• Delayed mode (4 day behind) global analyses and forecasts of CO2

and CH4, 9km

CAMS information products of NO2, , PM2.5 , Ozone and Aerosol are available to Windy’s 1.5 million users.

AtmosphereMonitoring

D U S T E P I S O D E S S E A S O N C A P T U R E D B Y C A M S

The past couple months have been marked by several acute Saharan dust events affecting Europe (including sometimes Northern Europe).

Animations of forecasts have been very popular on CAMS website and social media (reaching record consultation rates).

AtmosphereMonitoring

C A M S P A R T N E R S W I T H K E Y I N S T I T U T I O N S

https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/focus-areas/environment/ozone

WMO’s public website features some headline CAMS forecasts since July 2018.

EEA provides information about air quality observed by Member States across Europe in the last 48h and

forecast from CAMS for the next 48h.

http://discomap.eea.europa.eu/map/AQI/ViewerCAMS/

AtmosphereMonitoring

M O N I T O R I N G T H E O Z O N E L A Y E R F O R T H E E U

CAMS opened in September 2018 a webpage following request from DG-CLIMA to provide ozone layer monitoring information.

AtmosphereMonitoring

T H E C A M S A I R C O N T R O L T O O L B O X

What happens today if emissions from agriculture are cut by 50%

What happens today if emissions from traffic

are cut by 50%

AtmosphereMonitoring

D A I L Y S O U R C E A P P O R T I O N M E N T I N F O R M A T I O N

For the European capitals, daily analysis of local versus large scale contribution to air pollutant concentrations. Where does pollution come from? What is the chemical composition of PM?

Brussels

AtmosphereMonitoring

2 0 1 8 : C A M S H A S B E C O M E A M A I N S T R E A M I N F O S O U R C E

Breezometer

Plume Labs

aqcin

CAMS products are now reaching ~100s of million people worldwide

AtmosphereMonitoring

a i r T E X T

Free air pollution, UV, pollen and temperature forecasts for Greater London and the South East.

Local forecast models need information on how much pollution flows into and out of the domain to provide an accurate service.This is provided by CAMS European air quality forecasts.airTEXT is now available

in London and Riga

AtmosphereMonitoring

S U C C E S F U L U S E C A S E S B E C O M E L I V E

“Mon Toit Solaire” provides a web-based decision support system for the development of rooftop photovoltaic solar panels. CAMS provides the satellite-based time series of available solar radiation for the specific location, taking into account the amount of clouds and aerosols.

(France)

AtmosphereMonitoring

P A S Y F O - A L L E R G I E S

The aim of PASYFO is to provide a high-resolution regional system for predicting the personal allergy symptoms of pollen-sensitive people using personalised sensitivity information.

CAMS European pollen forecasts are used to provide the up-to-date information on pollen for the European domain.PASYFO was distinguished at the

Congress of the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI), with comment that such an application effectively paves the way to the future of "personalised medicine”.

ClimateChange

Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S

• How is the climate changing? How will it change in future? How will it impact society?

• Provide information about past, present and future climate

• To support European adaptation and mitigation policies

• Stimulate the market for climate services in Europe

ClimateChange

What C3S offers to its users

• Access to climate data (generated by C3S or made accessible)

• Tools needed to use the data

• Information on sectoral impacts

• Quality assurance

• User support and training

ClimateChange

C3S offer

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

22

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Climate reanalysis: ERA5

• Atmosphere/land/wave parameters

• 31 km global resolution, 137 levels

• Hourly output from 1979 onward

• Using 2016 ECMWF forecast system

• Using improved input observations

• Ensemble data assimilation method

• Uncertainty estimates for all ECVs

Coming soon:

• ERA5 back to 1950, mid 2019

• ERA5-land, 1979 onwards, global at

9km resolution, end of 2019

• High resolution European and Arctic

regional reanalyses (2020)

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

C 3 S : E O b a s e d E s s e n t i a l C l i m a t e V a r i a b l e s

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information available,

to an operational schedule, and make them publicly available.

C3S seasonal forecasts - Introduction

Horizontal grid: global 1deg x 1degEnsemble size:

• Forecasts: ~50 members• Hindcasts: ~25 members x 24 years (1993-2016)

Variables• Surface

• 7 vars every 6h • +30 vars every 24h

• Pressure (11 levels, from 925 hPa to 10 hPa)• 8 vars every 12 h

Agreed NetCDF specification C3S-0.1 (based on CF)

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Climate projections

Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change

scenarios produced with state-of-the-art climate models

(CMIP, CORDEX)

ClimateChange

• distributed system• improved access to existing

datasets under a common data model

• unified web interface• inter-active web apps• environment for user workflows

and applications (tool box)

A one-stop Climate Data Store

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e – C D S

ClimateChange

C3S infrastructureCDS concept: Access to tools, workflows and applications

ClimateChange

Climate Data Store (CDS) users are continuously increasing Climate Data Store (CDS) users are continuously increasing

• Total data volumes: ~70 PB CDS, ~15 PB ADS

• 14,500 CDS registered users 11 months after opening

• 1,500 users registered over last 3 weeks

• Peaks of 60TB per day, mainly driven by the ERA5 release back to

1979

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2018/05 May

2018/06 June

2018/07 July

2018/08 August

2018/09 September

2018/10 October

2018/11 November

2018/12 December

2019/01 January

2019/02 February

2019/03 March

Cumulative registered user

10.000

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC) for the CDS

Quality of data

• Assessments

• User guidance

• Gaps and limitations

Quality of tools

• Fitness for purpose

• Best practices

Quality of service

• Speed,

responsiveness

• System availability,

…

ClimateChange

C3S offer

ClimateChange

C 3 S E u r o p e a n S t a t e o f t h e C l i m a t e 2 0 1 8

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Climate regular updates

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

C3S offer

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Operational Phase

CDS / Toolbox launched

Previous C3SGA March 2017

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Present

Agriclass

SWICCA

EDGE

ECEM

Clim4Energy

WISC

C3S Water (SMHI)

C3S Energy (WEMC)

C3S Wind Storms (KNMI)

Proof of concept

UrbanSIS

U R B A NP

OC

mig

rati

on

(P

red

icti

a)

PO

C t

o O

pe

rati

on

s

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Operational Phase

CDS / Toolbox launched

Previous C3SGA March 2017

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Present

AgriclassGlobal Agriculture (WenR)

Proof of concept

Global Impacts (SMHI)

Global Shipping (OSM)

European Tourism (TEC)

European Health (VITO)

European Storm Surges (Deltares)

FISHERIES

European Fisheries (PML)

Glo

bal

Ser

vice

sEu

rop

ean

Ser

vice

s

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

Operational Phase

CDS / Toolbox launched

Previous C3SGA March 2017

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Present

BIODIVERSITY

DRR

Standards & Infrastructure

Application development

Biodiversity

User Cases

Demo Cases

Use Cases

Use Cases

Use Cases

Use Cases

Demo Cases

Demo Cases

Demo Cases

Demo Cases

Evaluation & Quality Control SIS EQC - SIS

Proof of concept

ClimateChange

Rolling ITTs to stimulate innovative ideas

• based on market analysis• develop and demonstrate

end-to-end Applications• based on C3S products

and the tools provided by the CDS infrastructure.

AIM: stimulate innovative ideas and support the development of downstream applications

• develop and demonstrate applications including data visualisation, scientific communication and arts

• based on C3S products and/or the tools provided by the CDS infrastructure

AIM: stimulate innovative ideas to show-case the potential of the CDS

Rolling Invitations to TenderEvaluated on a quarterly basis, with closing dates every three months: 14 March 2019, 14 June 2019

C3S_429 C3S Demo CasesC3S_428 C3S Use Cases

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

C3S learning services, training

Blended training

Focus on the CDS to

address climate change

challenges

Personalized learning

Online training resources for

self-paced learning

In-country training events in

local language

Train the trainers to widen

the reach of the training

Past, current and future training events

https://uls.climate.copernicus.eu

C3S User Learning Services offer free learning activities on how to use the Climate Data Store platform and its content.

Climate

Change

IMPLEMENTED BY

C3S learning services platform

Copernicus

C O 2 , S e n t i n e l 7

Copernicus

I n c r e a s i n g C O 2 c o n c e n t r a t i o n s

Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton and Nassikas 2017; Hansis et al 2015; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al. 2013; DeVries 2014; Le Quéré et al 2017;Global Carbon Budget 2016

The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870 to 2016.

The carbon imbalance represents the gap in our current understanding of sources and sinks.

Detailed (geographical and temporal) information is based on emission inventories.

Copernicus

O b s e r v i n g C O 2 f r o m s p a c e

GOSAT OCO-2 SentinelMicrocarbSCIAMACHY

The CO2 Sentinel will be a game-changer in terms of coverage & quality of data

Copernicus

I m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f C O 2 M V S