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Climate Change Adaptation Planning
On the Navajo Nation
Navajo Nation Climate Change Adaptation Report
Western Water Assessment NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) The University of Colorado Law School
What is Climate Change Adaptation?
“Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC WGII 2007).
Actions taken to alleviate or counter the impacts of climate change
Examples of Adaptation Activities
Seed banks Land restoration
What is Climate Change Mitigation?
Actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate
Combating the causes of climate change
Examples of Mitigation Activities Mitigation activities include options to sequester
carbon and reduce overall GhG emissions Rangeland restoration Reforestation
What is the Relationship between Adaptation and Mitigation?
Both seek to minimize the severity of climate change, but mitigation seeks to combat at the source while adaptation seeks to cope with the effects. Some strategies provide both adaptation and mitigation benefits.
What is an Adaptation Plan?
What Form should an Adaptation Report Take? Ways to frame adaptation planning? National, Departmental, Chapter Across Sectors Resource types Specific Species Specific Hazards EXAMPLE: Drought Contingency Plan
What should the product look like?
Individual Plan EXAMPLE: Swinomish Climate Change Plan
Can address these issues but be incorporated into another planning document EXAMPLE: Economic Development Plan
Navajo Drought Contingency Plan
Adaptive Management
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Phase 1: Scoping
What is the focus? Can vary in topic and scale
Who should be involved? If possible, good to get variety of perspectives Start to identify people doing the work
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
Info to set priorities
Info to identify actions
Help us identify knowledge gaps
Tiers
1) Current vulnerability and risk assessment
2) Future vulnerability and risk assessment
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
WHY?
How frequently?
Who?/ What?
Where?
How Severe?
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments - Current
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Vulnerability/ Adaptive Capacity Component
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Hazard/ Change
Source: Cutter et al. 2010; Füssel and Klein 2006
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments - Current
Example - Golden Eagles on the Colorado Plateau Current impact: Golden eagle populations have been declining
in portions of the western U.S.
Source: BLM Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecological Assessment (2012)
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments - Current Why are populations declining?
Collisions with vehicles, power lines, and wind turbines/ electrocution on power poles (infrastructure) Secondary poisoning (land-use) Although legally protected, sometimes shot Conversion of open shrubland to agriculture or
development (land-use) Wildfire impacts on open shrubland habitat (climate
hazard) Is drought having an impact? (climate hazard)
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments - Current Example – Livestock on the Navajo Nation
Current impact: Livestock are dying
Why are livestock dying?
They don’t have enough water - why not? Livestock ponds dried up (infrastructure and drought) High winds damaged windmills (infrastructure and
climate)
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments - Current
Why are livestock dying?
They don’t have enough to eat – why not?
Plants aren’t germinating (drought) Grain prices went up, can’t afford supplemental feed
(socioeconomic and drought) Less forage because land degraded Overgrazing Invasive species Erosion
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments - Future Start thinking about climate, hydrologic, and ecosystem
changes
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments - Future Start thinking about changes in other factors
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Hazard/ Change
Source: Cutter et al. 2010; Füssel and Klein 2006
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
Methods Qualitative Quantitative Some combination
Phase 3: Option Identification and Prioritization Make use of Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
Golden eagles on the Colorado Plateau example VR – wildfire impacts on prey populations for eagles Prescribed burning Nursery with plants to restore after a fire
VR – eagles getting shot greater enforcement
VR – wind turbine collisions Consider eagles when locating wind turbines Follow voluntary 2012 federal guidelines
Phase 4: Option Identification and Prioritization Livestock dying on the Navajo Nation example
VR – High winds damaging windmills Is there a way to repair windmills to make them
more resilient?
VR – Livestock ponds drying out Is it possible to regrade ponds to decrease
evaporation? Is it possible to cover ponds?
VR – Erosion on rangelands Identify and conserve lands with good topsoil for
vegetation growth
Phase 3: Option Identification and Prioritization
Types of questions to ask Which species/habitats/crops/livestock are most
vulnerable? What is our budget? What is our risk preference? How will this action affect other sectors/ future generations? What is our vision of what we would like our community/
ecosystem to be like?
Phase 4: Pilot Projects and Implementation Do we want to test a strategy out on a small-scale (pilot/
demonstration projects) or a large-scale (full-scale implementation)?
You already have the information you need to start implementing strategies
Roles and responsibilities Milestones Budgets Detailed timelines Measures of success
Phase 5: Monitoring and Evaluation
Important throughout the entire process
Baseline monitoring Monitoring to inform adaptation strategies
Monitoring to evaluate management choices
Citizen monitoring
Already basically doing climate change adaptation planning/implementation Navajo Drought Contingency Plan
Navajo Natural Heritage Program
Navajo Nation Integrated Weed Management Plan
Navajo Nation National Veterinary Stockpile Plan
1970s: 10 Desert Bighorn Sheep in one population Now: over 300 sheep in three viable populations!
Phase 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
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Resources
ITEP www4.nau.edu/itep/ Native Communities and Climate Change
www.tribesandclimatehange.org Cozzeto & Nania, et. al, Climate Adaptation on the Navajo
Nation Report (W. Water Assessment and the Univ. Colo. L. Sch., 2013). Forthcoming.
References VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTS Glick, P., B.A. Stein, and N.A. Edelson, editors (2011) Scanning the
Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C.
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Millar C. et al. (2007) Climate Change and Forest of the Future: Managing
in the Face of Uncertainty. Ecological Applications, 17(8):2145-2151.
National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Partnership (2012) National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy. Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Council on Environmental Quality, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, DC.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2010) Rising to the Urgent Challenge: Strategic Plan for Responding to Accelerating Climate Change.
