1

Climate Change LiteracyGuiding Principles for Informed

Climate Decision Making.

 G. McBean, CM, Ph.D., FRSC

Institute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionDepartments of Geography and Political

ScienceThe University of Western Ontario

London, Ontario

The Climate System

• Interacting components: atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice, glaciers…

• Processes are

complicated and

all components are

interconnected

The Sun is the primary source of energy

Life on Earth depends on, is shaped by, and now affects climate.

3

Climate Change Literacy

• The Essential Principles of Climate Science

• The Greenhouse Effect

As the planet cooled from its very hot beginning

Gases came out – water vapour

Greenhouse effect

Oceans – marine life

Oxygen

Land life

Ozone layer Humans

Intervention

Some water condenses to liquid – clouds-rain

GREENHOUSE EFFECT – gases in atmosphere trap energy and warm the surface and lower atmosphere

~25%

~65%

~10%

15oCLong Waves

5700oC

Short Waves

MarsAtmosphere: mass <1% earth’sGH Gases: >80% CO2

Sfc. Temp.: -47C GH Effect: 10C

FAR TOO COLD!

Other planets also have Greenhouse Effects, but these are unsuitable for life

EarthGH Gases: ~0.04% CO2

~ 1% H2OSfc. Temp.: 15C GH Effect: 33C

NOT BAD!

VenusAtmosphere: mass 90x earth’sGH Gases: >90% CO2

Sfc. Temp.: 477C GH Effect: 523C

FAR TOO HOT!

Sun

Time Scales for Climate System

• Water cycle 10 days

• Ocean response years to centuries

• Emissions to globe years

• Methane gas 10 years

• Carbon dioxide 100 years

• End-use technologies years

• Supply technologies decades

• Social standards decades

global issues

regional issue)

responding

8

Climate change is a long-term issue Issues of intergenerational and international equity

9

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – assess climate

change – 1990,95, 2001,07 • Most scientific information in this presentation

is from IPCC (or Canadian national assessments)

• Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.

• The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that it • “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on

the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to the security of mankind. Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control.”

• 240 Canadian climate scientists shared in this Prize as co-authors of the one or more of the IPCC major reports.

• Lester Pearson won the Peace Prize in 1957.

11

Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

from ice cores and modern data

Carbon dioxide Methane

Nitrous oxide

Last 10,000 y

Now

1957

Time Scales for Climate System

• Water cycle 10 days

• Ocean response years to centuries

• Emissions to globe years

• Methane gas 10 years

• Carbon dioxide 100 years

• End-use technologies years

• Supply technologies decades

• Social standards decades

global issues

regional issue)

responding

13

Climate change is a long-term issue Issues of intergenerational and international equity

14

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – assess climate

change – 1990,95, 2001,07 • Most scientific information in this presentation

is from IPCC (or Canadian national assessments)

• Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.

• The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that it • “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on

the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to the security of mankind. Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control.”

• 240 Canadian climate scientists shared in this Prize as co-authors of the one or more of the IPCC major reports.

• Lester Pearson won the Peace Prize in 1957.

16

Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

from ice cores and modern data

Carbon dioxide Methane

Nitrous oxide

Last 10,000 y

Now

1957

17

Climate Change Literacy

• Is the Climate Changing?

18

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).

0.13

0.18

NASA-GISS analysis.2005 was warmest2007 and 1998 were second warmest 2008 was 9th warmest in the instrumental period (since 1850)

Sea-ice is Melting

Year

Mill

ions

of

squa

re k

m

2007

2008

20

Climate Change Literacy

• Why is it changing?

ObservationsClimate Models

Natural processes•Variations in Earth’s orbit?•Variations in Sun?•Volcanoes?

Why is the climate changing?

ObservationsClimate Models

Natural processes+Human Processes•Greenhouse gas emissions•Aerosols•Land-cover change

Natural processes+Human Processes

ObservationsClimate Models

Natural processes

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed

increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

24

Climate Change Literacy

• How will it change in the future?

Projecting the Future

warming °C per decade

0.13

0.2

ScienceUncertainty

0.18

And the warmingwill continue for

centuries to follow

Emissions GtCO2 eq/yr

1.8C

2.8C

3.6C

Key Messages

• The climate has warmed, will continue to warm, and humans are the cause

• Mitigation (emission reductions) will not substantially affect the climate over the next few decades – so we have to adapt.

• But, choices made now will have a big impact on the second-half of the 21st century climate and beyond.

27

Climate Change Literacy

• Adapt to what?

28Changing Precipitation

Hotter summers;Rain - varies

Much warmer winters;Increased precipitation

Water-sewage, agricultureForestry, floods, droughts

No one lives at the global average Medium (A1B) scenario (2090-2099): Global mean warming 2.8oC

Annual DJF JJA

Number of hot days* per year

0 20 40 60 80

Victoria

Calgary

Winnipeg

London

Toronto

Quebec

Fredericton

2080-2100

2041-2069

2020-2040

1961-1990

Projected

Observed

*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum

temperature above 30C

8 22 37 68

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisCentre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique

In Europe - Record setting August 2003(more than 35,000 deaths) will be

every second summer – by mid-century

Actions:•Better design our structures and cities

•more green space-shade-use of passive cooling•Heat alerts and responses – medical advice

•Cleaner air

More frequent hot days – virtually certainWarm spells – very likely

No Breathing RoomNational Illness Costs of Air Pollution

Canadian Medical Association (CMA) August 20081. In 2008, 21,000 Canadians will die from the effects

of air pollution.2. By 2031, almost 90,000 people will have died from

the acute effects of air pollution. The number of deaths due to long-term exposure to air pollution will be 710,000. …

10. 11. In 2008, economic costs of air pollution will top $8 billion. By 2031, these costs will have accumulated to over $250 billion.

The processes that result in air pollution are much the same as those that produce greenhouse gases.

And more hot days will result in more smog days – for the same emissions

• Projections - intense rainfall events, heat waves and smog episodes are likely to become more frequent.

• Heat-related mortality could more than double in southern and central Ontario by the 2050s, while air pollution mortality could increase about 15 to 25% during the same interval.

• The health of Ontario residents has been at risk … extreme weather, heat waves, smog episodes and ecological changes that support the spread of vector-borne diseases.

• Walkerton, Ontario

From Impacts to Adaptation:Canada in a

Changing Climate 2007

32

$500M for the August 19, 2005 wind, rain

event

Historical occurrencesof urban flooding

1980, 1996, 2002, 20041 in 100 year event in

2002

Wind Damage to Infrastructure

Severe Storm Loss of Service

Sept. 29, 2005 93,000Nov. 6, 2005 120,000Nov. 16, 2005 50,000Feb. 4, 2006 100,000July 17, 2006 170,000Aug. 2, 2006 150,000Sept. 24+27, 2006 93,000

The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes

More heavy precipitation events – very likely

Today

550 ppm – mid-late this century

Natural ecosystems depend on temperature and Precipitation.

Increased risk of drought

Is Likely

Boreal forest under stressClimate moves north fasterthan the trees

Lakes Michigan-

Huron

174

175

176

177

X

X

Lake Ontario

72.5

73.5

74.5

75.5

X

X

Great Lakes Water Levels

Current & Projected Ranges

X Average, 1918-1998

X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)

172

173

174

175

X

Lake Erie

X

182.5

Lake Superior

183

183.5

184

X

X

1 metre dropin lake level

possible

Warmer temperatures

How will this change our access to water, sewage disposal, shipping and recreation?

Warmer lakes and changing climateresulting in more invasive species

in lakes and ecosystems

Climate Change is a Global Issue:

Coastal vulnerabilities in light of global change

– Sea level rise

– Increasing settlement in coastal zones

Time series of global mean sea level, as a deviation from 1980-99 mean.

Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities

– Increasing urban settlement in low-lying coastal areas

– IPCC has identified Asian mega deltas as “hot spots of vulnerability”

– By 2070, nine of the top 10 cities in terms of population exposure will be found in Asia

(Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok, Rangoon, and Hai Phong)

39

Climate Change Literacy

• We have a responsibility to our children and grandchildren and people around the world.

• We MUST reduce our impact.

Number of hot days* per year

0 20 40 60 80

Victoria

Calgary

Winnipeg

London

Toronto

Quebec

Fredericton

2080-2100

2041-2069

2020-2040

1961-1990

Projected

Observed

*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum

temperature above 30C

8 22 37 68

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisCentre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique

In Europe - Record setting August 2003(more than 35,000 deaths) will be

every second summer – by mid-century

Actions:•Better design our structures and cities

•more green space-shade-use of passive cooling•Heat alerts and responses – medical advice

•Cleaner air

More frequent hot days – virtually certainWarm spells – very likely

No Breathing RoomNational Illness Costs of Air Pollution

Canadian Medical Association (CMA) August 20081. In 2008, 21,000 Canadians will die from the effects

of air pollution.2. By 2031, almost 90,000 people will have died from

the acute effects of air pollution. The number of deaths due to long-term exposure to air pollution will be 710,000. …

10. 11. In 2008, economic costs of air pollution will top $8 billion. By 2031, these costs will have accumulated to over $250 billion.

The processes that result in air pollution are much the same as those that produce greenhouse gases.

And more hot days will result in more smog days – for the same emissions

• Projections - intense rainfall events, heat waves and smog episodes are likely to become more frequent.

• Heat-related mortality could more than double in southern and central Ontario by the 2050s, while air pollution mortality could increase about 15 to 25% during the same interval.

• The health of Ontario residents has been at risk … extreme weather, heat waves, smog episodes and ecological changes that support the spread of vector-borne diseases.

• Walkerton, Ontario

From Impacts to Adaptation:Canada in a

Changing Climate 2007

43

$500M for the August 19, 2005 wind, rain

event

Historical occurrencesof urban flooding

1980, 1996, 2002, 20041 in 100 year event in

2002

Wind Damage to Infrastructure

Severe Storm Loss of Service

Sept. 29, 2005 93,000Nov. 6, 2005 120,000Nov. 16, 2005 50,000Feb. 4, 2006 100,000July 17, 2006 170,000Aug. 2, 2006 150,000Sept. 24+27, 2006 93,000

The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes

More heavy precipitation events – very likely

Today

550 ppm – mid-late this century

Natural ecosystems depend on temperature and Precipitation.

Increased risk of drought

Is Likely

Boreal forest under stressClimate moves north fasterthan the trees

Lakes Michigan-

Huron

174

175

176

177

X

X

Lake Ontario

72.5

73.5

74.5

75.5

X

X

Great Lakes Water Levels

Current & Projected Ranges

X Average, 1918-1998

X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)

172

173

174

175

X

Lake Erie

X

182.5

Lake Superior

183

183.5

184

X

X

1 metre dropin lake level

possible

Warmer temperatures

How will this change our access to water, sewage disposal, shipping and recreation?

Warmer lakes and changing climateresulting in more invasive species

in lakes and ecosystems

Climate Change is a Global Issue:

Coastal vulnerabilities in light of global change

– Sea level rise

– Increasing settlement in coastal zones

Time series of global mean sea level, as a deviation from 1980-99 mean.

Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities

– Increasing urban settlement in low-lying coastal areas

– IPCC has identified Asian mega deltas as “hot spots of vulnerability”

– By 2070, nine of the top 10 cities in terms of population exposure will be found in Asia

(Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok, Rangoon, and Hai Phong)

50

Climate Change Literacy

• We have a responsibility to our children and grandchildren and people around the world.

• We MUST reduce our impact.

Canada’s Emissions to 2006

29.1% above Kyoto Target Kyoto Target

Energy 81%

By Province/TerritoryAlberta

Ontario

2006

1990

GHG Emissions- tonne/person2004US = 20Canada = 20Germany,Japan,UK = 9.8China = 2.6India = 1

Change in GHG EmissionsRelative to 1990

Canada +25%

Australia +25%

United States +16%

Japan +6%

EU -1.5%

Sweden -7.3%

UK -15%

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C

O2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

20062005

2007

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update

(Avgs.)

2008

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel EmissionsGlobal Carbon Project – 10/07

1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1

2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1

Natural CO2 Sinks absorb 55% of all Emissions

• 55% discount on human-induced climate change.

• A subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created (eg, base on EU-Emission Trading Scheme).

Canadell and Raupach 2008, Science

And Natural Ecosystems have been protectingthe climate from some of our insult

As the climate warms, these systems will absorb less.

Green Energy & Environmentally Friendly Chemical Technologies at Western Engineering

Research Activities

1. Environmentally friendly fuels 2. Green technologies for air/water treatment and hydrogen production 3. Fuel and biofuel cell technologies 4. Novel materials for green processes and products

We can take actions here!!• Reduce energy use• Reduce the carbon intensity of our

energy– Alternate fuel from waste– Solar and wind power

• Reduce our pollutant emissions – air-water-…

• Mayor’s Energy Sustainability Council• Green is the Colour of Money• And adapt to a changing climate.

Key Messages

• The climate has warmed, will continue to warm, and humans are the cause

• Mitigation (emission reductions) will not substantially affect the climate over the next few decades – so we have to adapt.

• But, choices made now will have a big impact on the second-half of the 21st century climate and beyond.

The End

Thank you for your attention