Climate Change: Risks & Opportunities in the Canadian Commercial Real Estate Market

Climate Change: Risks &Opportunities in theCanadian Commercial Real Estate Market

KPMG LLP

2 Climate Change: Risks & Opportunities in the Canadian Commercial Real Estate Market

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The ChallengeClimate change has been called the greatest challenge of the 21st century. Its social,environmental, and financial impacts cross all segments of society. Commercial realestate will now be bought and sold within the constraints of a new “low-carbon”economy. The challenge will be to align incentives such that owner/operators,investors, and tenants all benefit from improved environmental performance—especially improved energy efficiency.

Climate Change:Risks & Opportunities in the CanadianCommercial Real Estate Market

Contributing to the Problem

Commercial buildings are a major source of both direct and indirectgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Direct GHG emissions come from theon-site combustion of fuels for heating and cooling, as well as the on-siteuse of refrigerants, which are powerful greenhouse gases. Indirectemissions come primarily from the GHGs released from fuel combustionrelated to producing construction materials and electricity used in thebuildings.

In 2005, the International Energy Agency estimated that buildingsaccount for 20 to 40 percent of the world’s energy use, a number thatvaries greatly depending on a country’s climate and economy.1 In Europe,for example, buildings use about 40 to 45 percent of the total energyconsumed. A recent estimate for North America is 46 percent, fromwhich 8 percent can be attributed to the embedded energy of thematerials used in construction. The commercial building sector in Canadais estimated to account for 13 percent of Canada’s carbon emissions and14 percent of end-use energy consumption.2

Climate Change: Risks & Opportunities in the Canadian Commercial Real Estate Market 3

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Although buildings use a lot of energy, thepotential for drastic reductions in energyconsumption is significant. With provenand commercially available technologies,the energy consumption in both new andold buildings can be cut by an estimated30 to 50 percent while producing afavourable return on the initialinvestments. Instead of contributing tothe problem, financial leaders in thecommercial real estate sector have foundways to be part of the solution.

Untapped Potential

Canada has more than 440,000commercial and institutional buildingsrepresenting floor space of over670,000,000 m2 and consuming over1,036,000,000 GJ of energy (or287,800,000,000 kWh)3 annually. (Incomparison, the amount of energyrequired to supply the Montreal Metroeach year is approximately a million GJ).

The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) stated in its fourthassessment report that not only does thebuilding sector have the largest potentialfor significantly reducing GHG emissions,but also that this potential is relativelyindependent of the cost of GHG

emissions reduction. This is due partly tothe fact that most measures aimed atreducing GHG emissions from buildingsalso result in reduced energy costs overa building’s life cycle, which eventuallyoffsets any incremental investment cost.Indeed, energy reductions in buildingsmay evolve as a financial asset—acarbon offset to be traded (anopportunity described later in thispaper). As the carbon market goesglobal and the cost of carbon increases,GHG emissions threaten to become asignificant business liability. “Clean”businesses’ low exposure to climate riskcould represent a valuable asset.

The energy performance of commercialbuildings is affected by several factors.For large commercial buildings,geographic location is much lessimportant than building use fordetermining energy performance. Forexample, food services facilities useapproximately four times more energy persquare foot than wholesale andwarehouses, and just under double thoseof office buildings. Another example ofenergy-intensive commercial real estate iscomputer data centres. According to a USDepartment of Energy report, the energyconsumption by data centres has gone

from practically zero 20 years ago, to over1.2 percent of total US energyconsumption.4

Slow Adoption of Energy

Efficiencies

Although the potential to improvebuilding energy efficiencies to reduceGHG emissions is significant, theindustry has been slow to act. Forexample, Canadian buildings constructedbetween 2000 and 2004 use on averageonly 7 percent less energy than thoseconstructed prior to 1920.

Despite years of government and utility-sponsored grants and incentive programs,as well as energy audits indicatingfavourable returns on investments, therehas been little progress in wide-scaleadoption of energy-efficiencyimprovements, especially retrofits toexisting buildings. Historically, energy hasbeen inexpensive and viewed as a minoror uncontrollable cost of business to besimply passed on to customers. Inaddition, there is confusion regarding thecosts, risks, and payback of currentenergy-efficiency technologies.


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Perhaps the main reason for slowadoption is that incentives are not alignedamong commercial real estatestakeholders. For example, the short-termfinancial benefit of lower energy billsresulting from investments by buildingowners typically accrues to the tenant.Likewise, the long-term benefit of energy-efficiency investments by tenants typicallyaccrues to the building owner as a capitalimprovement. Keeping energy costs lowis not a common motivator for buildingoperations and maintenance (O&M)contractors. Nor is it common forarchitects to budget more for designimprovements that exceed building codesor historic expectations.

Because of the potentially catastrophicimpacts of keeping the status quo,governments, industry organizations,and investors are stepping up to create change.

North American Regulations

While the Canadian commercial buildingssector is currently not covered directly byany GHG emissions regulations, there aredevelopments both in Canada and the USthat could change that. Alberta was thefirst jurisdiction in North America to

regulate GHG emissions, and it is workingtoward a protocol for both new andexisting commercial buildings that thefederal government could adopt. BritishColumbia has taken Alberta’s lead as thefirst province to make a commitment toa carbon-neutral public sector by 2010.By 2011, through the Pacific CarbonTrust provincial Crown Corporation, BCexpects to purchase between 700,000and 1,000,000 tonnes of CO2-equivalentoffsets each year. KPMG PerformanceRegistrar Inc. has been active in theverification of these high-quality carbon offsets.

In the US, both the EnvironmentalProtection Agency (EPA) and the WesternClimate Initiative (WCI) (a partnershipbetween seven US states, BritishColumbia, Manitoba, Ontario, andQuebec) each include commercialbuildings in the scope of proposedregulated entities. Under the EPA’smandatory reporting rule, only facilities(related grouping of buildings) with morethan 25,000 tonnes of CO2-equivalentemissions annually are required to reportemissions. From a practical standpoint,only the largest warehouses, office and/orentertainment complexes, shoppingmalls, hospitals, and universities will be

reporting. Currently the US doesn’t havefederal climate regulations, but mostbelieve that will change as early as 2010.Proposed legislation may make up to 1.5billion tonnes of international offsetsavailable to US federal cap and trademarkets. With the price of theseregulatory carbon credits to trade from USD$5 to USD$15 per tonne, the totalmarket value becomes compelling. Theprice for carbon offsets in Canada may beeven higher. The current structuredpurchase price of BC carbon offsets bythe BC government is CAD$25 pertonne.5

Another GHG emission regulator programthat may affect Canadian commercial realestate is the Regional Greenhouse GasInitiative (RGGI). This regional effortinvolves 10 Northeastern and Mid-Atlanticstates and has Quebec, New Brunswick,and Ontario as official observers.Although the RGGI currently caps onlyGHG emissions from electric utilities, itallows for the sale of both emissionallocations (permits) as well as carbonoffsets. These offsets can come from avariety of emission reduction projects,including commercial buildings that haveimplemented one or more of thefollowing energy conservation methods:


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• Improvements in the energy efficiencyof combustion equipment thatprovides space heating and hot water,including a reduction in fossil fuelconsumption through the use of solarand geothermal energy

• Improvements in the efficiency ofheating distribution systems, includingproper sizing and commissioning ofheating systems

• Installation or improvement of energymanagement systems

• Improvement in the efficiency of hotwater distribution systems andreduction in demand for hot water

• Measures that improve the thermalperformance of the building envelopeand/or reduce building envelope airleakage

• Measures that improve the passivesolar performance of buildings andapplication of active heating systemsusing renewable energy

• Switching to a less carbon-intensivefuel for combustion systems,including the use of liquid or gaseouseligible biomass, provided thatconversions to electricity are noteligible under the RGGI regulation

It is anticipated that EPA will accept all ofRGGI’s offset protocols, including thosefor energy-efficient buildings. In addition,proposed US and Canadian federallegislation gives “early action” credits tothose carbon offset owners (foreign ordomestic) that have already implementedinternational standards, such as ISO14064-3, and been verified as doing so.

EPA, WCI, and RGGI are consideredbellwether regulatory regimes stronglyinfluencing federally legislated language inCanada. It seems inconceivable thatCanadian commercial buildings will not beaffected either directly or indirectly (e.g.,through potential offsets) by NorthAmerican climate change regulationswithin the next two years.

Leadership in Energy and

Environmental Design (LEED)

In 2000, the US Green Building Councillaunched the Leadership in Energy andEnvironmental Design (LEED®) GreenBuilding Rating System as a tool to helpbuild energy-efficient, resource-friendly,and healthier structures. In Canada, theprogram is administered by the CanadianGreen Building Council (CaGBC). TheLEED Green Building Rating System is apoint-based system in which buildingprojects earn points or credits for

satisfying specific “green”building criteria.Projects earn credits in categories,including:

• Sustainable Sites• Water Efficiency• Materials & Resources• Energy & Atmosphere• Indoor Environmental Quality.

The average LEED-certified building isdesigned to use 32 percent lesselectricity and results in 350 tonnes lessof carbon dioxide emissions annually.6

However, additional analysis shows verylittle correlation between the awarding ofLEED energy-efficiency points and actualenergy savings. In some studies, 28 to 35percent of the LEED-certified buildingsperformed worse from an energy-savingsstandpoint than their conventionalcounterparts.7 This has prompted theorganizations of the Green BuildingCouncil to develop several new versionsof the LEED rating system, which havebeen released over the past few months.These new versions are based more onperformance verification, similar to theUS EPA Energy Star program, than ondesign modelling. However, verificationand disclosure of site-specificperformance information can raise anumber of unexpected business risks.

Regulatory

Non-compliance with emerging regulations is of the most concern. As previouslymentioned, the Canadian commercial buildings sector is currently not covereddirectly by any GHG emissions regulations. However, assuming the Canadianfederal government follows the US and regional initiatives, this could change. Initialregulations will most likely focus on only the largest facilities, including office,shopping, and entertainment complexes (e.g., those with over 25,000 tonnes ofCO2-equivalent emissions).

This doesn’t mean that real estate investors and managers won’t be affected. On the contrary, anchor tenants from regulated industries or those who havecommitted to voluntary emission reductions will be (if they are not already)demanding energy and refrigerant-use information. Expect this demand to beformalized in amendments to standard lease agreements. Be proactive andunderstand this request while protecting the confidential and competitive use ofenergy performance data.

Because of the uncertainty associated with evolving GHG emissions regulations,regulators are often unable to provide specific guidance. When it comes to zoningvariances and permit requests, municipal officials are under public pressure toinclude climate considerations. Commercial real estate developers and investorswho are unprepared to address climate considerations risk unfavourable treatment,delays, and additional fees.

Managing RisksGiven that regulations and industry standards are quickly evolving, ignoring the resultingregulatory, reputational, and financial risks or missing the potential opportunities could be aserious strategic mistake.


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Reputational

An important component of conductingcommercial real estate transactions iseach party’s reputation. Being “out oftouch” with social, economic, andenvironmental issues such as climatechange can lead to delays and mistrust.Who wants to do a deal with, or invest in,someone who doesn’t understand the fullrisks as well as the full potential of anygiven project? This can lead to a decreasein seeing the best deals, restricted accessto favourable capital, and even moredelays. Managing this risk involvesstrategic disclosure of key reputationalindicators starting with the investmentcommunity.

The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) wasstarted in 2000 by a handful ofinstitutional investors to collect anddistribute high-quality information tomotivate corporations and governments

to take action to prevent climate change.Today, over 475 institutional investors areCDP signatories, with assets undermanagement of over USD$55 trillion. Inaddition, some 60 purchasingorganizations, such as Walmart, PepsiCo,and Cadbury, have joined in 2009 as partof CDP’s new supply chain disclosureinitiative. With this kind of globalcoverage, it is likely almost every majorcommercial real estate project is or willbe affected. In Canada, 40 majorinvestment groups participated in 2008.Many of these investors have vastcommercial real estate holdings.

Financial

Commercial real estate entities need tounderstand and account for current andfuture carbon liabilities and assets as animportant part of comprehensive Mergerand Acquisition (M&A) due diligence. Newchecklists are being developed to assess

potential financial exposures. Forexample, are future liabilities related topoor energy efficiencies, negative tenantreactions, or unfavourable zoning andpermitting being properly valued? Haveownership rights related to accruedenergy efficiencies, Green Power (orrenewable energy) Certificates, and/orGHG emission reduction offsets beenaddressed in commercial leases or otherlegal agreements? How do environmentalfactors affect purchase/selling price, taxes,insurance, and other potential financialresponsibilities?

Having a clear carbon managementstrategy should be part of any largecommercial real estate holding. Thisstrategy starts with assessing the GHGemissions related to the entire portfolio(know your carbon footprint). Because youcan’t manage what you don’t measure,gathering GHG information should follow

One of the questions the CDP asks each year is: How are financial risks relatedto GHG liabilities and assets being managed? Being able to confidently answerthis question reflects on the reputation of a commercial real estate entity.


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Acuity Funds

Addenda Capital Inc.

AGF Management Limited

Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo)

Alberta Teachers Retirement Fund

Beutel Goodman and Co. Ltd.

Blue Marble Capital Management Limited

BMO Financial Group

British Columbia Investment Management Corporation

CAAT Pension Plan

Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board

Canadian Friends Service Committee (Quakers)

Catherine Donnelly Foundation

CI Mutual Funds’ Signature Advisors

CIBC

Comité syndical national de retraite Bâtirente

Evangelical Lutheran Church in Canada Pension Plan for Clergy

and Lay Workers

Fondaction CSN

Front Street Capital

Genus Capital Management

Groupe Investissement Responsable Inc.

GrowthWorks Capital Ltd.

Guardian Ethical Management Inc.

Hospitals of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP)

Inhance Investment Management Inc.

Jarislowsky Fraser Limited

McLean Budden

Meritas Mutual Funds

Natcan Investment Management

National Bank of Canada

Northwest and Ethical Investments LP

OMERS Administration Corporation

Ontario Teachers Pension Plan

Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Ltd.

PSP Investments

Royal Bank of Canada

Scotiabank

Sprucegrove Investment Management Ltd.

Sun Life Financial Inc.

TD Asset Management Inc.

The Co-operators Group Ltd.

The Daly Foundation

The Presbyterian Church in Canada

The United Church of Canada – General Council

Toronto Atmospheric Fund

Vancity Group of Companies

York University Pension Fund

Youville Provident Fund Inc.

Canadian Signatories 2009


a well-constructed GHG informationmanagement plan. Elements of such aplan include:

• Organizational and OperationalBoundary Conditions

• GHG Quantification Process,Procedures, and Methods

• Data Quality Control and Management

• Ongoing Roles and Responsibilities

• Auditing and Verification

The resulting baseline of GHG emissionsallows for tracking improvements,certifying reductions for carbon offsets,and creditable reporting to key influencerswithin the commercial real estate market.These influencers include investors,regulators, and anchor tenants. Increasedpressure from these influencers oncommercial real estate entities will resultin more “green” buildings.

Although the regulatory, reputational, andfinancial risks are quite real, perhaps thegreatest risk involves missing theopportunities related to drastic changes inregulations and public perceptions.

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Investors

Regulators

Anchor Tenants

CommercialReal EstateHoldings

“Green” Buildings}}


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Enhancing OpportunitiesIn their newly updated book, Green to Gold: How Smart Companies Use EnvironmentalStrategy to Innovate, Create Value, and Build Competitive Advantage, Yale University authorsDaniel Esty and Andrew Winston make the case that sustainability should be a core strategicbusiness element of any business. They focus on addressing social and environmental concernsas a way of turbo-charging economic returns. Commercial real estate is no exception. Thebenefits can be significant if the right strategies are implemented.

Turning “Green” Real Estate into Gold

As presented, energy savings from LEED buildings can be quite variable, especiallyunder earlier versions of LEED scoring. Nonetheless, the public perception of“green” value is quite real. The CoStar Group, an information company that tracks44 billion square feet of US commercial space, reports that LEED buildingsgenerate rent premiums of USD$12.25 per square foot over other buildings, enjoy a4.1 percent higher occupancy rate, and sell for USD$184 more per square foot.Nevertheless, LEED buildings incur no more than a 2.5 percent cost premiumupfront to design and build.

Commercial real estate groups should realize that the economics are becomingeven more compelling, particularly since a Canadian national market for carbonoffsets related to building efficiency is on the horizon. It is important to trackdevelopments in regulatory carbon markets internationally, especially thoseinvolving energy efficiency and related carbon credits (offsets). Before thishappens, forward-thinking companies will have long-term real estate agreementsin place addressing development, ownership, and sale of all environmentalattributes accrued from their commercial property. Don’t assume theenvironmental benefits accrue to you because you own the property.

Unlike energy-efficiency projects, the production and purchase of Green PowerCertificates are a very hot topic. Commercial building owners with large rooftopsor those found in windy areas are finding opportunities to generate and sellrenewable or “green” power. Not only does the electricity have value—more thanthe market rate—but also, more importantly, the resulting Green PowerCertificates have a value that is growing by the day.


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In Canada, the market for Green PowerCertificates is voluntary. However, 29US states and the District of Columbiahave Renewable Energy PortfolioStandards, meaning that, by a givendate, a certain percentage of the state’senergy production must be fromrenewable energy. Pending US federalclimate and energy legislation has amandatory federal target, thus a nationalRenewable Energy Portfolio Standard.Assuming integration between US andCanadian environmental markets, theopportunity could be quite large forCanadian commercial building owners.Even if commercial real estate groupsdon’t want to get into the powergeneration business, there is a fast-growing number of alternative-energyproject owner/operators that couldhandle project development. Thesekinds of subleasing arrangements areyet another mechanism to enhance totalreal estate development value.

Leadership Can Pay Off

In a widely run television ad for Ford,Mike Rowe makes the point: “If youhaven’t heard—this fuel [energy]-efficiency thing is a pretty big thing.”“Green branding,” particularly if it isperceived to save money and theenvironment, sells. It speaks to yourstakeholders who matter the most:investors, regulators, and anchor tenants.Who wants to do a deal, lend money,

expedite a permit, or sign a lease withsomeone who is perceived as being as“out of touch” with current trends?

Energy savings, carbon offsets, GreenPower Certificates, or premium rentals for“green” space are all examples of veryreal opportunities. Leaders in commercialreal estate will address theseconsiderations in their buying strategies,operations, and sales. It will be an integralpart of the way they do business.

Yes, there are risks, but risks can bemanaged. Leaders are proactive indesigning their lease agreements toaddress potential financial exposures.They work with regulators, tax advisers,and insurance companies that arefocused on “green” issues to achievefacility zoning/permitting, reduce taxburdens, and potentially lower insurancepremiums. This results in a competitiveadvantage to those who have steppedforward.

It has been said that clean technology andalternative energy driven by climateissues will be the “next big thing”—similar to the Internet in the 1990s. Today,who would buy commercial real estatethat wasn’t plugged into the currentinformation super highway? Those whotake a leadership position can help reducetheir risks while enhancing theiropportunities.

Summary

The “greening” of commercial real estateis not a fad, but rather a fundamentalchange. Real estate groups that want toattract the best deals, strategic investors,and marquee anchor tenants shouldrealize this change. Leaders incommercial real estate need theiradvisers to help them reduce thesestrategic risks while enhancing businessopportunities in this new low-carboneconomy.

KPMG Contact

Diane Jeffreys

National Industry Leader Building, Real Estate and ConstructionKPMG LLP416-777-8411 [email protected]

1 Natural Resources Canada, Natural Energy UseData Base, 2005.

2 National Round Table on the Environment andEconomy (NTREE) & Sustainable TechnologyDevelopment Canada, “Geared for Change:Energy Efficiency in Canada’s CommercialBuilding Sector,” 2008. www.nrtee-trnee.com/eng/publications/commercial-buildings/commercial-buildings-report-eng.pdf

3 Natural Resources Canada, Commercial andInstitutional Consumption of Energy Survey,June 2007.

4 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2007.

5 Vancouver Sun, October 23, 2009.

6 Turner and Frankel, Energy Performance ofLEED of New Construction Buildings, 2008.

7 National Research Council Canada—Institute forResearch in Construction, “Do LEED-certifiedbuildings save energy—Yes, but ...” August2009.

kpmg.ca

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Climate Change: Risks & Opportunities in the Canadian Commercial Real Estate Market