Climate Science

Sense and Nonsense

Keith BurrowsAustralian Institute of Physics Education Committee

“… the global warming theory itself is based on just 16 years of warming – from 1980 to 1996.”

Nothing could be further from the truth!

Earth’s temperature is a balance between

energy coming IN from the Sun and going OUT as IR

It is basic science that has been known for almost 200 years!

Climate Science 101

“The Earth should be a lot colder than it is”

Joseph Fourier ~1820

Climate Science 101

Tyndall found that water vapour and carbon dioxide in the air keep the Earth warm and habitable.

John Tyndall ~ 1860

Climate Science 101

Svante August Arrhenius figured it out in 1896. He also found that doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere would increase the Earth’s temperature around 5oC

Climate Science 101

It’s a bit like a greenhouse...

So it is called the “Greenhouse Effect” It keeps the Earth at a warm +15oC (average)

instead of a freezing –18oC

Greenhouse Effect = +33oC

ie. 40% increase

From 280 ppm pre-industrial to 400 ppm last year ie. 43% increase

Climate Science 101

So by how much will adding 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere

add to the +33oC Greenhouse Effect?

The denier view

560 ppm 2oC560 ppm

280 ppm

BUT! This does NOT include delayed and feedback effects.Which are considerable!

Best guess is between 2oC and 4oC

Limiting cumulative CO2 emissions to 2050 to 1,000 Gt CO2 yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2oC

As 2000–2006 CO2 emissions were 234 Gt CO2 , less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal.

As 2000–2012 CO2 emissions were 500 Gt CO2 , less than quarter of the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal.

Note that the figure is 1000 Gt of Carbon (not CO2)It is equivalent to 3700 Gt of CO2

From Meinshausen et.al. Nature (April 2009)

2014

A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years S.Marcott, et.al. 8 March 2013, Science

Earth has not been this hot for MILLIONS of years

And the next 100 years?

Earth’s climate

last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around 10 metres higher than today. His findings suggest that at one point the sea rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.”

“Paul Blanchon's team at the National University of Mexico has been studying 121,000 year old coral reefs in the Yucatan Peninsula, formed during the

Temperatures in that interglacial were only a degree or so warmer than the 20th C.

July2009

Earth’s climate – looking at the past

+3°C

Pliocene CO2 drops from >400 ppm to ~300 ppm

Pliocene: Temperature around 3oC warmer, sea level around 20 – 30 m higher

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map

2012 – Record low September Arctic sea ice

Now about HALF what it has been for tens of thousands of years!

Climate extremes The RATE at which high temperature

records are being broken is INCREASING

“The latest estimate is that some 18.8 million km2 of northern soils hold about 1,700 billion tonnes of organic carbon.

[Australia = 7.7 million km2 ]

That is about four times more than all the carbon emitted by human activity in modern times and twice as much as is present in the atmosphere now.”

International Permafrost Association

Is the Earth warming?

Satellites can measure the heat escaping to space …

Low radiation High radiation

Is the Earth warming?

… and IT IS LESS THAN THAT COMING IN from the Sun – by about ½ watt per sq metre.

The Earth must warm until they balance!

Reflected visible radiation Emitted IR radiation

Is the Earth warming?

Half a watt per square metre! That’s about: 20 times ALL the power being used by

humanity or 400,000 Hiroshima

bombs EVERY DAY This MUST heat

the Earth

Is the Earth warming?

Is the Earth warming? The Ocean

HOW many more manufacturing workers must be sacked, thanks to green policies that only pretend to stop global warming? How many of the jobless won’t be able to heat or cool their homes, with these same mad policies helping to hike power prices by 110 per cent in only five years?

“Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Brendan Pearson said the 19 per cent recommendation showed the CCA needed to be abolished. He said it would destroy jobs and living standards and was the equivalent of shutting down the electricity sector for five years.”

What to do?

By all means change the light bulbs (etc!) But the most important thing missing at

present is political will So we must TELL PEOPLE! Write to papers and politicians Join with others to spread the word AND – spread the GOOD NEWS!(See the next presentation: And now the good news