Climate services in a changing climate

– Hong Kong Experience

T C Lee

Hong Kong Observatory

Content

• Evolution of climate services and main drivers

• Global trend of climate services

• Key components of modern climate services

• Climate services – Hong Kong experience

• Some future challenges

Climate Services – past and present

Past focuses

- Data collection (data warehouse)

- Data provision services (mostly one sided)

- Statistical analysis of weather records (e.g. 30 year climate normal)

- Climatological studies

- Mainly national scale and general applications

Present focuses

- Climate monitoring products (climate change, ENSO, monsoon, etc.)

- Multi-time scale climate predictions (e.g. monthly, seasonal, etc.)

- Wide range of tailored services for various sectors

- User engagements

- Decision-making support

- Multi-disciplinary climate impact studies

- Local, national and global scales

Some of the main drivers of changes

New technologies - satellite, radar, automatic weather stations,

telecommunications and supercomputing helped climatologists to collect more

climate data and better understand climate systems (e.g. ENSO, AO, PDO, UHI)

Climate modeling – the advancement in climate modelling increases the skills of

climate prediction and makes climate projection possible

Climate change and extreme weather – increasing need to monitor and

understand climate change as well as assessing potential impacts

Socio-economic growth – continuous growth in population and urban

development makes the society more complicated and increasingly sensitive to

weather and climate

Internet and social media – climate information has become a hot topic online

(e.g. extreme weather, climate change, ENSO, etc.)

Big data – riding on the upsurge of “Big Data” concept in recent years, climate

information has become an integral part of the mountain of data to be analyzed

and utilized.

Global trend of climate services

• World Climate Conference

• WMO structure related to climatology and climate services

• Regional Climate Centers

• Global Framework for Climate Services • WMO Cross-cutting urban focus

World Climate Conference (WCC) –

a world conference of experts on climate and mankinds

1st WCC in 1979 – creation of the World Climate Programme of WMO to

improve understanding of climate system and its impact on society

2nd WCC in 1992 – setting up of the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Global Climate

Observing Systems (GCOS)

3rd WCC in 2009 – endorsed the concept of Global Framework for

Climate Services (GFCS)

(photo sources : WMO)

WMO structure related to climatology and climate services

ICSU - the International Council for Science

IOC - the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO

UNEP – UN Environment Programme

Commission for

Climatology

Global Framework for Climate Services

(GFCS) &

WMO Cross-cutting urban focus

World Climate

Programme

(WCP)

World Climate Research

Programme (WCRP) (Co-sponsored by

the WMO, ICSU and IOC)

Global Climate Observing System

(GCOS) (Co-sponsored by WMO, IOC, UNEP

and ICSU)

World Climate Services

Programme

(WCSP)

The Global Programme of

Research on Climate Change

Vulnerability, Impacts and

Adaptation (PROVIA)

Su

pp

ort

WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs)

RCCs are centres of excellence that create regional products including long-

range forecasts that support regional and national climate activities, and thereby

strengthen the capacity of WMO Members in a given region to deliver better

climate services to national users.

(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/rcc/rcc.php)

In RA II, the Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China, and the Tokyo Climate Center

(TCC), Japan were designated as RCC Beijing and RCC Tokyo, respectively, in

2009. The North Eurasian Climate Center (NEACC), Russian Federation, was

designated as a new RCC (RCC Moscow) in 2013.

(http://www.rccra2.org/)

Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts

(GPCLRFs)

WMO designated GPCLRFs adhere to certain well-defined standards, aiding the

consistency and usability of:

• fixed forecast production cycles

• standard sets of forecast products

• WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/gpc/gpc.php

全球氣候服務框架 http://gfcs.wmo.int/

Historic evolution of the Global Framework for Climate Services

Vision of GFCS

The vision of the Framework is to enable society to manage better the

risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and change,

especially for those who are most vulnerable to climate-related hazards.

This will be done through developing and incorporating science-based

climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

Five overarching goals:

• Reducing the vulnerability of society to climate-related hazards through better

provision of climate information;

• Advancing the key global development goals through better provision of

climate information;

• Mainstreaming the use of climate information in decision-making;

• Strengthening the engagement of providers and users of climate services; and

• Maximizing the utility of existing climate service infrastructure.

全球氣候服務框架 http://gfcs.wmo.int/

GFCS of the World

Meteorological Organization

(WMO) provides a worldwide

mechanism for coordinated

actions to enhance the quality,

quantity and application of

climate services. The five

priority areas of GFCS include

agriculture and food security,

water, health, energy and

disaster risk reduction.

Water Agriculture and food security

Health Disaster risk reduction

Energy

The 5 Pillars of GFCS :

User Interface Platform: a structured means for users, climate researchers and climate

information providers to interact at all levels;

Climate Services Information System: the mechanism through which information about

climate (past, present and future) will be routinely collected, stored and processed to

generate products and services that inform often complex decision-making across a wide

range of climate-sensitive activities and enterprises;

Observations and Monitoring: to ensure that climate observations and other data

necessary to meet the needs of end users are collected, managed and disseminated and

are supported by relevant metadata;

Research, Modelling and Prediction: to foster research towards continually improving

the scientific quality of climate information, providing an evidence base for the impacts of

climate change and variability and for the cost-effectiveness of using climate information;

Capacity Development: to address the particular capacity development requirements

identified in the other pillars and, more broadly, the basic requirements for enabling any

Framework-related activities to occur.

The Structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services

Urbanization in the World More than half of world’s population is now living in urban areas

Wet or Dry

Fog/Mist/Haze

Thunderstorms (tornadoes and hail)

Squall Lines

Rainstorms

Tropical Cyclones

Winter Storms

Heat Waves

Cold Spells

Climate change

Connecting weather / climate events with potential risk

of urban complexes

New Urban Agenda

UN General Assembly Dec 2015

UN Habitat III Conf.

(Oct 2016)

Social inclusion and ending poverty

Urban prosperity and opportunities

Environmentally sustainable and resilient urban development

EC 68 (June 2016)

WMO Cg-17 (2015)

Implementation (Decision 15)

Establish a WMO cross-cutting urban focus (Res 68)

WMO Cross Cutting Urban Focus Integrated weather, climate, hydrological and

related environment services that support urban issues

Working Group under

EC

Priority Areas/Guide

Framework of pilot implementation

Reinvigorate sustainable urbanization

Outcome

WMO Cross Cutting Urban Focus in response to UN’s New Urban Agenda

WMO “Integrated Weather, Climate and Environmental Services” Initiative

Weather

Weather and climate modeling

Mutli-scale / Seamless

weather predictions (minutes-months-annual &

regional to city scale)

High impact weather forecasts

Climate

GFCS (Water, DRR, Energy, Food, Health)

Climate information

Climate change projections

(decades to centuries)

Environmental

Urban environment monitoring (air quality, chemical constituents, GHG

emission and weather elements)

Air pollution modeling and

forecasts

Partnership and Stakeholder Engagement

Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems

Emergency Preparedness

Disaster Risk Reduction

User Routine

Operations / Planning

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Sustainable Development

Urban Planning

Infrastructure & Building

Design

Big Data and Smart City Research Development Outreaching and Public

Education

Applications

Key components of modern climate services

• Climate observations

• Climate data management

• Climate monitoring and assessment

• Climate predictions and projections

• Climate risk management/adaptation

• Public education/outreaching

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

GCOS is a joint undertaking of the WMO, IOC, UNEP an ICSU. Its goal is to

provide comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a

multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties, and

atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, cryospheric and terrestrial processes.

GCOS Surface Network (GSN) GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php

1. Climate observations

WMO Regional Basic Climate Network (RBCN)

The WMO Regional Associations define RBCN to provide a good representation

of climate on the regional scale. Standard reports on climate elements are

routinely produced by RBCN stations and CLIMAT report is the main of such

reports which is produced for international exchange.

National Climate Observation Network

Many WMO Members also operate their own national climate observation network

to support climate services at national scale (e.g. China Climate Observing

System)

(Source : http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/climate/featutes/201409/t20140922_262081.html )

WMO Recognition of Long-term

Observing Stations

Sonnblick Observatory, Austria

https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/what-we-

do/observations/long-term-observing-stations

The May 2017 WMO Executive Council

meeting recognized a first set of WMO

long-term observing stations

2. Climate Data Management

Key items include :

• Climate database, metadata and data quality assurance WMO Guidelines on Climate Data Management (WMO-TD No. 1376) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/WCDMPNo60.pdf

• Climate information provision for different users via a wide range of channels

Climate information for adaptation and development needs

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/cca/documents/WMO_1025_web_E.pdf

• Data recovery and rescue WMO Data rescue and archives initiative

https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/what-we-do/observations/data-rescue-

and-archives

Climate database, metadata, data quality assurance and data dissemination

Hong Kong as an example

Processes involved in data recovery and rescue

(photo source : WMO)

3. Climate monitoring and assessment

Climate monitoring products

(i) Climate re-analysis (e.g. NCEP, ECMWF, CMA, JMA, etc.)

(ii) Report / summary of climate status (e.g. status WMO Statement on the

Status of the Global Climate)

(iii) Monitoring of key climate systems and impacts (e.g. ENSO, AO, MJO, etc.)

(iv) Significant climate events

(Photo sources : WMO, NOAA)

Climate change detection/monitoring

Annual average temperatures in the contiguous US

(Source : WMO, NOAA and SMB)

Seasonal or long range forecasts from

Regional Climate Centres / National Climate Centres

4. Climate predictions and projections

Monthly precipitation categories forecast from BCC

1.5 month outlook of precipitation probability from NOAA

Climate projections (decadal to centennial)

UK Climate Projection (UKCP09) project by UKMO

http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/

Pictures of the future Climate scenarios by KNMI of the Netherlands

http://www.climatescenarios.nl/

• Sector specific services (tailored products and indices)

(e.g. energy, agriculture, water resources, transportation, etc.)

• Climate impact assessment and disaster risk reduction

(e.g. risk of flooding, drought, landslides, wildfires, etc.)

• Cross-cutting partnership and stakeholder engagement

(e.g. research collaboration, user forum/meeting, new service development, etc.)

5. Climate risk management/adaptation

Use Cases – Pollen forecast

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/pollen-forecast

Pollen forecast provided by combining weather data with detailed breakdown

of different types of pollen and their peak times within a season.

(source : UKMO)

Potential uses of weather and climate

information by tourism operators and

travel planners ETA: estimated time of arrival

(Ref: Scott DJ, Lemieux CJ, Malone L (2011) Climate services to support sustainable tourism and adaptation to climate

change. Clim Res 47:111-122. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00952 )

6. Public education/outreaching

Conduct various public education and outreaching activities to promote better

use of climate services, understanding of climate science, and scientific basis

and awareness of climate change.

• Webpage

• Social media

• Educational resources and school talks

• Cooperation with NGOs

Climate change webpage of NASA

Climate related exhibits in the Science Museum of London

Director of HKO giving talks on extreme

weather to government officials

Hierarchy of National Climate Services

Types of climate products and services by category of national climate services

(source : Implementation plan of the GFCS)

Climate services in Hong Kong

and their applications in urban living

Development in Hong Kong over the last century

c.1880s

(Source : CO 1069-447-53 National Archives UK https://www.flickr.com/photos/nationalarchives/7838570400/)

2014

Weather and climate monitoring in Hong Kong

• Long term meteorological observations at Hong

Kong Observatory (HKO) headquarters since

1884

• Upper air sounding at King’s Park (KP) since

1950s

• Dense automatic weather station and raingauge

networks over Hong Kong since 1985 (including

those operated by Drainage Services Department

and Geotechnical Engineering Office)

• Other remote sensing systems (e.g. radar,

lightning location network, wind profilers, lidars,

etc.)

KP HKO LLIS TMS

• HKO has been regularly publishing meteorological observations at its headquarters since

1884, apart from a break from 1940 to 1946 due to World War II

• To enhance climate service, HKO’s Climatological Information Service webpage was

recently upgraded to provide one-stop-shop online access to more than 130 years of

climate data and relevant statistics of Hong Kong

(http://www.weather.gov.hk/cis/climat_e.htm)

Climate Information Dissemination & Accessibility

Statistics on the use of climate data in Hong Kong

Most popular elements :

Wind, Rainfall & Temperature

Major users other the public :

Government departments,

Engineering consultants, & Academic

Applications of century-long climate information in Hong Kong

Climate Information

Infrastructure design and city planning

(Sea Wall Design, Port Work, Drainage Design, Water Resource Management, etc.)

(Climate Change, Climate Projection, Climate and Health, Water Resource, etc.)

Climate partnership

(Health sector, Academia, Farming Community, Energy Sector, etc.)

Climate research

Climate information, statistics and relevant future projections of Hong Kong as well as expert advice, in particular on extreme weather events, were provided for the establishment and regular review of the engineering design standards and codes of practices appropriate to local conditions for protecting public safety. Examples :

• Code of Practice on Wind Effects for buildings • Drainage design and flood control • Port Work Design Manual • Slope Safety

Climate Information for Infrastructure Design

(Photo courtesy : CEDD, DSD and BD)

The Wind Climate of Hong Kong Urbanization is a great challenge to the air ventilation in a city. Wind observations in

the past decades provide useful information of the wind climate of different parts of

Hong Kong and the long term changes

Air Ventilation and Urban Planning

Help assess and regulate the impact of potential

city, community and building developments on

local air ventilation

By analysing and evaluating climate wind data

together with different geometric and urban

development data (e.g. land use, greening, building

density, topography), “Urban Climatic Maps” by the

CUHK divides the territory into different urban

climate zones, each with recommended planning

and development actions

(courtesy by Planning Department)

Source : http://www.pland.gov.hk/pland_en/p_study/prog_s/ucmapweb/ucmap_project/content/content.html

Climate and Health Studies

The Observatory has been collaborating with tertiary institutions and relevant government departments to study the impacts of climate/weather on human health in Hong Kong in recent years, including thermal stress, infectious disease and vector-borne disease

Thermal Stress The impact of cold and hot weather on senior citizens in Hong Kong (HKO and Senior

Citizen Home Safety Association) Development of Hong Kong Heat Index (HKO and JC School of Public Health and

Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)) Infectious Disease (HKO and Department of Microbiology, CUHK) Seasonal influenza activity in Hong Kong and its association with meteorological

variations Rotavirus Activity and Meteorological Variations Seasonality of Common Respiratory Viruses in Hong Kong

Vector-borne Disease (HKO and Food and Environmental Hygiene Department) A climate model for predicting the abundance of Aedes mosquitoes in Hong Kong

Papers published can be found at : http://www.hko.gov.hk/climate_change/publication_hko_e.htm

• jointly conducted a study on influenza and climate in Hong Kong.

• The daily number of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases admitted to the Prince

of Wales Hospital and the weather data recorded at the Observatory’s automatic weather

station at Shatin from 1997 to 2006 were used for the study.

Seasonal variations of Influenza in Hong Kong

• 2 peaks for influenza A

• Winter/spring peak - Feb / Mar

• Summer peak – Jun / July

• 1 (2 in some yrs) peak for influenza B

• Major: Winter/spring peak - Feb / Mar

• Minor, less consistent: Summer peak – 4 out of 10 yr

Influenza B Influenza A

HKO + Microbiology Department of CUHK

Favourable climatic zones for influenza A

(Ref : Chan, Paul K.S., H.Y. Mok, T.C. Lee, Ida M.T. Chu, W.Y. Lam and Joseph J.Y. Sung, 2009 : Seasonal Influenza Activity in Hong Kong and its

Association With Meteorological Variation, Journal of Medical Virology 81:1797–1806)

Climate Services for the Energy Sector

• Greater climate resilience and

adaptation across the sector;

• Efficiency and reduction of energy

consumption; and

• The growing renewables sub-sector.

(Reference : http://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/climate-services-energy-sector-new-priority-area-gfcs)

Development and application of targeted climate products and services through

the GFCS can help improve efficiency and reduce risk associated with hydro-

meteorological hazards affecting energy systems, in particular to support:

Assessing the Renewable Energy Potential Analyses of the long term climate data measured by the Observatory provide information on

the potential of renewable energy resources in Hong Kong. Such information has been found

useful for relevant feasibility and site selection studies

Distribution of mean wind power density in Hong Kong Solar radiation monitoring in Hong Kong

HKO + CLP Power Saving Energy through Weather Watch

Climate data and user energy consumption data >> CLP’s energy consumption forecast

model for each high consumption client

9-day weather forecast >> consumption forecast model >> 9-day “Energy Consumption

Forecast” in CLP’s Meter Online Services*

Timely energy-saving measures could be taken in response to early alerts of high

consumption days under hot weather situations for high energy consumption clients.

* CLP Meter Online services.

https://www.clponline.com.hk/MyBusiness/CustomerService/MeterOnline/Documents/CLP_MeterOnlineLeaflet.pdf

(Photo courtesy of CLP Power)

Peak loading

Forecast daily consumption

Rainfall and Water Resource Management

Rainfall data collected in Hong Kong and nearby areas are useful in various aspects of water resource management. In recent years, about 80 percent of the fresh water demands of Hong Kong are supplied from the Dongjiang River Basin.

High Island Reservoir

Rainfall distribution in Hong Kong (1981-2010)

(Courtesy of SCMP, http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1838499/turning-tide-could-leave-hong-kong-deep-water)

Reservoir yield prediction

Provide reference for WSD to assess the quantity of water to be imported from Dongjiang

HKO + Water Supplies Department (WSD)

• Annual outlook

- Annual rainfall in tercile category

- No. of tropical cyclones within 500 km of HK, onset of tropical cyclone season

- Probability of annual mean temperature reaching top 10 positions

• Seasonal forecast

- Average seasonal temperature and total rainfall in tercile category

• Experimental monthly forecast (internal ref., special users)

- Monthly temp. and rainfall in quantitative terms

- No. of cold surges

- TC activities in South China Sea / within 500 km of HK

Climate Predictions

Observed climate change in Hong Kong over the last century

Climate Change Monitoring and Research

Climate projections for temperature, rainfall and sea level in the future

Sub-hour to

Hours

Days Weeks Month Season Annual Decades Century

Site

District

Territory

-wide

Nowcasting &

Site specific forecasts

Weather forecasts (1-9 days) Extended outlook*, Seasonal forecast &

Annual outlook Climate projections

Various weather warnings

and advisories

Weather services time scale Climate services time scale

Weather and climate services in Hong Kong

- spatial and temporal coverage

* Extended outlook for min/max temperatures up to 14 days ahead launched in June 2017

Promoting Awareness on Climate Change and Extreme Weather

• Educational TV programme

• Cool Met Stuff (regular TV programme)

• Pamphlet

• Open day

• Blogs

• School and public talks

(with partners from the engineering

sector and other gov. depts)

Some future challenges

• Historical Data Recovery and Rescue

• Big Data Storage and Sharing

• Social Media and New Communication Platforms

• Impact-based forecast

1. Historical Data Recovery and Rescue

Big data requires digital data for communication and sharing. Many historical

information are still kept in paper format.

Some of them may even be stored in not desirable conditions. They urgently need

to be protected and digitized before further deteriorating and information loss.

(Source : Rick Crouthamel https://www.flickr.com/photos/108128644@N07/14035614612/in/photostream/)

Old weather reports at risk Stored in order in A/C room

2. Big Data Storage and Sharing

Huge and ever increasing amounts of data being generated each second around the

world. Yet, explosive growth of data expected in the next 5 years by the meteorological

community.

"Big Data" requires :

• very large capacity data storage and high speed communication facilities

• well planned data management and dissemination strategies

• fair and efficient data sharing platform/network

• strong partnership and stakeholder engagement

(Ref : Jiao, M., 2016: Challenges and Opportunities to NMHS in Big Data Era – what is happening and will happen. Commission for Basic

Systems Technical Conference 2016, 21-22 November 2016, Guangzhou, China. )

3. Social Media and New Communication Platforms

The presence of social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, IG, Whatsapp, Line, WeChat,

Snapchat, etc.) is re-shaping the traditional media and information sharing approach.

However, data, reports, and even “social media forecasting” circulating around social media

are always subject to uncertainty and accuracy issues. Posing a challenge to public

communication and crisis management.

Real and fake hail photos appeared on

social media during the hailstorm in

Hong Kong on 30 March 2014 !

(Courtesy of Ms Susanna Cheung)

(Source : http://w9lw.farlowconsulting.com/2016/01/02/why-

you-wont-find-irresponsible-weather-forecasting-here/)

“Long-range forecasts” of US

storms on social media in Jan 2016

Widespread of rumour via social media

on timing of tropical cyclone signals

during Super Typhoon Haima in Oct

2016. HKO responded by issuing a

“Weather Note” on its website to

quickly stop further spreading of the

rumour.

(Rumour ends at a wise

person's ears)

4. Impact-based forecast

An accurate and timely forecast or warning does not guarantee safety of life or

prevention of major economic loss if the potential impacts of the concerned

weather change or inclement weather are not fully understand and proper

responded by the users or general public.

One of the priorities of NHMSs in coming years will be on the development of

impact-based and risk-based public weather services in collaboration with

different weather-sensitive stakeholders.

This will involve the development of more sophisticated forecasting system

through analyzing various weather-related information and multi-disciplinary

data by the application of crowd-sourcing and big data analytics.

THANK YOU