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Dr. Roger S. PulwartySenior ScientistNOAA

Heat WavesStorm Track VariationsMadden-Julian Oscillation

El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Decadal VariabilitySolar VariabilityDeep Ocean CirculationGreenhouse Gases

Tornadoes SnowstormsHurricanes Typhoons

3YEARS

10YEARS

30YEARS

100YEARS

SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY

30DAY

S

1 DAY

1 SEASON

Changing Conditions

Weather-Climate-a Continuum and an adaptation deficit…..

Early warning....resource allocation…. Infrastructure Design

Marine EcosystemsOcean surface upper full

Atmosphere region global

Atmospheric chemistry Ice sheets

Land surface

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Definition of Climate Services (EU 2015)

Transformation of climate-related data –together with other relevant information- into customized products such as projections, forecasts, information, trends, economic analyses, assessments, counseling on best practices, development and evaluation of solutions , and other services in relation to climate that may be of use for society at large

Includes data, information and knowledge that support adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk management .

• Motivation for climate services steadily developing over many years, as:

– Awareness of importance of climate on many sectors of societies has grown (agriculture, food security, water, health, energy, tourism, etc)

– Impacts of extremes have been increasingly recognized (human and economic); growth in disasters losses

– Relevance of managing climate risk is being seen increasingly as a central development issue (now and future)

– Preparedness and associated use of climate information has become a mainstream issue of disaster management

• Thus, initiatives have emerged at different scales, especially– National and regional climate services– Global Framework for Climate Services– Sector-based initiatives (WHO, CGIAR/CCAFS, etc)

Context

Land Atmosphere Emergency Ocean Climate Security

The Copernicus System (European Union and European Space Agency)

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Sectoral Information System

Climate indices relevant to the various EU sectoral policies

Copernicus Climate Change (C3) service

C3S architecture: the SIS

Water management Energy

OCWWS -- CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

Regions

Regions and Field

Tools

EMC

Field

External Partners

CSD

CPC

Drought Monitor, Drought Outlook,

Hazards Assessment, etc.

ENSO, NAO, etc. Forecasts

Probabilistic Forecasts

Region

Field

Partners

IRI, CDC, others

CPC CSD

Regional Partners

Approved Downscaling

“Best Practices”

Local Downscaled Probabilistic Forecasts (including

river forecasts)

Regional and Local Probabilistic Forecasts (mostly

non-CPC parameters)

Ensemble Guidance

Regional TestbedsRFC Testbeds

Approved Compositing

“Best Practices”

NWS Climate Forecast Operations Concept

NWS Climate ServicesRole of Regional & Field Offices

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Climate Services for Latin America

Visor de mapas con información actualizada a medida que esta se

genera

Información de referencia. Mapas

temáticos

South and Central America Drought Observatory and Land Degradation Climate Risk Management and Adaptation - Guidelines 1

2Drivers for Risk Management• The insufficient awareness by some societal and economic actors of their

vulnerability to future climate change;• Lack of relevant and timely products and services• Inappropriate content and format in which information is offered• Inadequate business model for provision of climate services

Adaptation (IPCC)• “The adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or

expect climate stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”

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Global Framework for Climate ServicesEnable better management of the risks of climate variability and change, and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

Energy

Disaster Risk Reduction Health

Water Food Security

Components of the GFCS

,

User Interface

,

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observations and Monitoring

Research, Modeling and

Prediction CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT

Energy

• WFP, FAO, WMO

• Roving climate seminars for farmers;

• Participatory integrated climate services for agriculture

• UNISDR, WFP, IFRC, WMO

• Climate Risk Early Warning Systems (CREWS)

• NORAD programme IFRC trained vulnerable communities in Tanzania and Malawi

• Global Water Partnership

• Help Desk on Integrated Drought Management launched with 33 expert organizations

• UNESCO’s African Flood and Drought Monitor

• WHO• Joint office on

Climate and Health (WMO WHO)

• NOAA Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN),

• Climate Services for Health guidance

• WMO• Developed a

GCF Concept Note for Colombia, Moldova, and Tanzania

The Chain of Climate ServicesServices

Interna onal orNa onal Climate Data

Providers

Na onal ClimateServices

Regional ClimateServices

Products

Observa onal Data.Global Model Projec ons.

Global sectorialinforma on.

Tailored Informa on ofNa onal Relevance.Regional Projec ons.

Mi ga on and Adapta on

Advises on Good Prac ce.Customized Mi ga on and

Adapta on Measures.Development of Solu ons.

Educa on of Users.

Customers

Na onal Climate ServicesInterna onalOrganiza ons

Mul na onal Corpora ons

Regional Climate ServicesNa onal Governments

Professional Organiza onsConsul ng Firms

NGOs

Local End-usersSmall Enterprises

State GovernmentsMunicipali es

Brasseur 2014

Global infrastructure

GPCLRFs

Regional Climate CentersRCCs

• Global Producing Centres-Long Range Forecasts

• GPCLRF & RCC inventory of GFCS-relevant climate data and products (ECVs) Not discoverable or organized in systematic form

Regional Outlook Fora worldwide

18https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/regional-climate-outlook-

products

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Sectoral Applications

s

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User Interface Platform

National/Sectoralusers

Specialized data centres National data centresGlobal data centres

Climate Data Centres

National climate centresGlobal Producing Centres

Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction Centres

Regional Climate Centres

NationalClimate Forums

Regional usersGlobal users

Regional systems National systemsGlobal systems

Climate Observing Systems

RegionalClimate Outlook

Forums

The Climate Services Information System

Way Forward: CSIS Deployment Network

Global• WMO/GFCS• Climate Services SMEs • Climate service

organizations• Global users

Regional• Regional Climate

Centers• Regional Climate

Outlook Forums• Regional users

National• National

Meteorological and Hydrological Services

• Academia• National users

CST: generating climate services information

Technical Notes

• Anomalies, percentiles maps• Time series graphs• Diagrams ( e,g hovmoller )• Trends, return periods…

Bulletins &

Reports

• Precipitation outlook map• Temperature outlook map• Hazard, vigilance, risk

maps

Briefs Synthesis

Statements

• hazards, potential impacts and response measures

• Contingency plan update• Hazards, warning, Advices

Global Framework for Climate Services:Challenges

Partnerships : mechanisms to enhance interactions between climate service users and providers are not always well- developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed

Quality : operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications sciences, and the spatial-

temporal resolution of information is often insufficient to match user requirements.

Accessibility : many countries do not have any “climate” services but all countries have scope to improve access to such services

Capacity : many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and manage climate-related risks and opportunities the current availability and quality of climate observations

and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe

Regional Context for Climate Services24

Variable climatic, economic and social conditions make the delivery of climate services a challenge…. regional cooperation is important• Encompasses a very wide variety of climates from Tropical to

Arctic, with wide variety of weather and climate• The main weather and climate impacts are hurricanes, drought and

flooding. The agricultural sector as well as transport and tourism are greatly impacted by severe weather and climate events.

• Economic conditions are variable including economies of the USA and Canada, as well as the developing countries in the Caribbean, such as Haiti.

• Developed countries provide a range of different support across the region

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Climate Outlook Forums: Good geographical coverage...

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Very effective way to communicate with decision makers…· Great successes with Regional COFs (RCOFs) and National COFs (NCOFs) already in place in the Region (CARICOF,

FCCA, Mexico, others). · There is a large range of engagement methods used based upon cultural differences regionally and nationally resulting in

improved understanding of climate services by stakeholders · Lessons learned and potential lessons could be applied at the regional, sub-regional and national levels Expand current

Outlook Forums to provide training in climate services for Users

Priority actions emphasize cooperation· Funding for observers to

participate in COF activities from other parts of the Region or other Regions COF activities (providing training, forum dialogue, etc.).

· Develop lessons learned and recommendations from cross-COFs exchanges

· Need to improve capacity issues to communicate Climate Watches

GFCS 2016-2018Three yearOperational and Resource Plan

Global infrastructure

GPCLRFs

RCCs

• C3S portal into past, present and future ECVs globally

• WIS to catalogue all• GDPFS for

cascading system

SERVICE DELIVERY AT COUNTRY LEVEL

Indicators for Global Policy Processes and joint action e.g. unfccc, sdgs, sendai

Global

Regional

national

Outputs FLEXIBLY GENERATED ATMULTIPLE levels:

Global

Regional

national

Outputs FLEXIBLY GENERATED ATMULTIPLE levels:

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Global

Regional

national

Outputs FLEXIBLY GENERATED ATMULTIPLE levels:

SERVICE DELIVERY AT COUNTRY LEVEL

Value-added AT COUNTRY LEVEL

Prediction, projec

tion and

Delivery m

echanismsClimate monitoring

And assessment

Observations and Climate data management

Climate information for adaptation and risk management

Capacity development

United Nations system level• WMO climate reports formally

welcomed by UNFCCC – More country and regional

monitoring and reporting needed to inform national policies and to enrich the global synthesis

• ENSO bulletin informs United Nations joint action– Full operationalization

of Global Seasonal Climate Update for regular release pending

CSTClimate Services Toolkit

About CSTGuidelines

ToolsCapacity DevelopmentApplication Exemplars

Data

HelpCST User ForumManaging

DataAnalyzing Climate

Monitoring Climate

Forecasting &

Verification

Projecting Futures

Tailoring Information

Climate Services Tools provide access to best practices in accessing, mining, and using information for improving climate services and supporting climate-sensitive societal challenges

Tools Standards and Specifications

Current status of availability and access to data and products from CSIS entitiesAvailability of data and products (Non-exhaustive list)

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Climate change projections

CMIP561 models20-200 kmhistorical run: 1850-2005nominal timescaletime period: 2100 and

beyondtime resolution : daily

CORDEXSeveral global/regional models14 domains12-50 kmnominal timescaletime period: until 2100time resolution : daily

present

Paleoclimatology proxiesCRU , NOAA

Reconstructed variablesCRU , NOAA

More than 10 types of proxies (corals, insects,

pollen, tree rings, .. .)

S2S A2D1850100

Frequency : Daily to monthly

Monthy/seasonal LRFGlobal13 GPCLRFs maps2 Lead Centers data 2.5° 2.5° APCC

hindcasts 20-30 yrsIRI skill scores

Frequency : MonthlyMonthy/seasonal LRFRegional8 RCCs maps3 RCC-Networks data 30 km

Frequency : QuarterlyUpdatesGlobalGSCU (Trial)El Niño/La Niña Update

Frequency : Once or twice per year

Probabilistic outlook and consensus statementRegional National19 RCOFs NCOFs

T2m, RR, SSTs, MSLP, T850, Z500

T2m, RR

Major circulation

features

T2m, RR

Frequency : Sub-daily , daily or monthlyIn situ dataGlobal Regional NationalGHCN-Daily RBSN BOM CDO 90 000 stations 4 000 stations 16 000 stations

Climate extreme indicesETCCDI: 27 indices for more than 100 countriesICA&D: > 50 indices for more than 15 000 stations

Gridded data and Remote sensing gridded merged data dataCRU: 0.5° 0.5°

EUMETSAT satellite-basedGPCP : 1.0° 1.0° WDC-RSAT data few kmCMAP : 2.5° 2.5° NOAA NCEI: radar data few km

Atmospheric measurements6 GAW WDCs: > 1 400 stations

Reanalysismore than 10 global reanalysis : > 100 kmERA-Interim , ERA-15 , ERA-40 , NCEP-NCAR , JRA-55 , …dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis : CORDEX , CaRD10regional reanalysis : NARR , ASR

Graphical toolsENACTS IRI Map Roommaps maps, graphics ,data: > 30 years, 4-5 km grid animations, data

ClimatView WMO WWIS

station monthly T2m, RR station normals T2m, RR1982-present, > 2 500 stations 1 900 stations

More than 200 variables available from stations

10-50 km

FORECASTS

CLIMATE VARIABILITY TIMESCALE

WEATHERTIMESCALE

CONTEMPORARY PAST

HISTORICAL PAST

PROJECTIONS

PREHISTORICAL PAST

CLIMATE CHANGE TIMESCALE

Frequency : Annual

Annual to Decadal predictionsGlobalGPC-ADCPLC-ADCPglobal mapsvariables averaged over year 1 and years 1-5datatime resolution : dailyhindcast data

UpdatesGlobalGA2DCU (Concept)

T2m, RR, SLP, MOC

Major circulation

features

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Country level

Capacities, needs and requirements from stakeholders and

Members

Weather • Climate • Water 38

GFCS Activities

Flagship Activities

• Regional Coordination in West Africa

•Malawi and Tanzania

•Dominica, Costa Rica

Regional workshops for the most vulnerable countries

South East Asia, Caribbean, SWPI, Latin America, SEE (November), MENA (TBD)

National Consultations Belize, Burkina Faso, Chad, Dominica, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Papua New Guinea, Kiribati, Tanga

Climate Services Projects

Country Area Targeted Climate ServicesBhutan Agriculture Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictionBurkina Faso Disaster Risk Reduction Sub-seasonal flood forecasting, Early

warning systemDominica Disaster Risk Reduction Early warning system on hydroclimatic

extremesMoldova Agriculture Historic information, climate monitoring,

LRF, projectionsPapua New Guinea

Agriculture LRF, crop yield forecast

Peru Disaster Risk Reduction Flood and drought forecasting

Tanzania DRR

Disaster Risk Reduction Flood and drought forecasting, risk maps, Early warning system implementation

GFCS Adaptation Programme in AfricaPhase II

Outcomes

– Enhanced capacity of NMHS to provide climate services

– Strengthened use of climate information by vulnerable communities for food security and livelihoods

– Strengthened capacity of health professionals to use climate information for public health preparedness and resilience to climate related health risks

– Increased use of climate and weather information by vulnerable communities to improve disaster risk reduction in vulnerable communities

GFCS Adaptation Programme in AfricaPhase II

Select activities

– Launch the NFCS and strengthen TANDREC and TWG CS to coordinate climate services in the countries ( e.g deploy experts to support countries in uptake of climate services toolkit). ENACTS in Malawi.

– Strengthen connections with user interface platforms established in Phase I (WFP Planning and Review Days, WFP Radio Listening Hubs, Red Cross volunteer community exchanges, and Climate and Health Core Teams at the Ministries of Health, integrate climate information into district component of National Health Information System )

– Tanzania target districts: Kiteto, Longido, Kondoa , Dodoma, Arusha, Morogoro , and Dar Es Salam

– Malawi target districts are Kasungu, Salima, Lilongwe, Balaka, Zomba , Phalombe , Chikwawa and Nsanje

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Climate Services: A 5-point plan of action • Conduct comprehensive country baseline capacity

assessments for the development of climate services;

• Support NMHSs to engage in a national consultation process for climate services and develop action plan;

• Develop National Action Plan (map needs against existing initiatives at national/regional level);

• Organize action plan endorsement by government and partners, and begin implementation of action plan; and

• Launch National Frameworks for Climate Services, including monitoring and evaluating impact.

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Envision an Informed Society Anticipating and Responding to Climate and its

Impacts…such as • The number of water restriction days are few and far between because a

community uses reliable information about the likelihood of extreme droughts for planning.

• Your home is powered by efficient, reliable renewable energy sources, supported by a suite of short and long-term environmental forecasts such as Wind Surface Forecasts for wind turbines.

• Public-Private sector industry-- spawning new jobs and supporting a green economy -- grown up around the core products and information generated by National Climate Services, much like the establishment of the private sector weather industry grew up around weather services

• Your nation’s and communities security and environment are enhanced because reliable climate change information clearly shows areas of vulnerability due to changes in food and water availability, climate-related health issues, coastal sea level rise, and other impacts of climate, and the nation acts upon this information.

45What is your vision?

Thank you!