Coachella Valley Median Detached Home Price Median Price ... · Monthly Sales – 3 month trailing avg. As we said last month - and emphasize again now - home sales in the Valley

Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC

©2017 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.

The Desert Housing Report May 2017

$350,000

$389,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000Median Price

Coachella Valley Median Detached Home Price May 2002 - May 2017

CV Detached Median Price 4% growth curve

Summary

The median Coachella Valley price for detached homes was unchanged from last month at $389,000. This represents a $39,000 increase or 11.1% gain over

last year. The median Coachella Valley price for attached homes rose to $260,000 in May, finally breaking out above $250,000 which had been its limit for

two years. The median price for detached homes in six of the nine major Valley cities showed positive year over year returns. The six positive returns

ranged from 11.7% for Desert Hot Springs down to 3.8% for Rancho Mirage. One city, Coachella, was unchanged price wise and two cities had negative

returns - Palm Desert was down 1.3% and Indian Wells down 5.2%. Attached home prices were a mixed bag; four cities had positive year over year returns

while four were negative. Total three month sales have now surpassed 1,000 units a month and are up 20% over last year. Both attached and detached sales

are participating in this sales expansion. Detached sales are up 21% while attached sales are up 19%. Inventory continues to improve. On June 1st it stood

at 4,113 units, which is 849 units less than last year. With lower inventory and higher sales, the “months of supply” ratio on June 1st stood at 5.2 months.

A year ago it was 7.2 months. The DOM ratio for May confirms this improvement going from 93 days a year ago to 74 days today.




$250,000$260,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Median PriceCoachella Valley Median Attached Price

May 2002 - May 2017

CV Median Attached Price 3% growth curve

Coachella Valley Attached Median Price

We are pleased to finally see some strength in attached home prices. The median price for the Valley rose to $260,000 in

May, finally breaking out above $250,000 which had been its limit for two years. While it’s modest it still represents a gain

of 4%. As the graph shows, the next four months have historically been a problem for attached home prices. We believe

it’s because over 75% of all condominiums are owned by non-residents and non-resident buyers leave the Valley as the

hot, summer months approach. Hopefully the price give back this year will be modest, setting the stage for possibly larger

gains next year.




May-17 Year Ago

12 Month

Change 2011 Low

Gain off

2011 Low 2006 High % from High

Desert Hot Springs $199,450 $178,500 11.7% $85,000 134.6% $295,000 -32.4%

La Quinta $518,000 $465,000 11.4% $245,000 111.4% $682,020 -24.0%

Indio $300,000 $279,700 7.3% $158,500 89.3% $380,500 -21.2%

Palm Springs $585,000 $550,500 6.3% $335,000 74.6% $600,000 -2.5%

Cathedral City $286,750 $272,500 5.2% $139,000 106.3% $395,000 -27.4%

Rancho Mirage $649,000 $625,000 3.8% $423,000 53.4% $950,000 -31.7%

City of Coachella $225,000 $225,000 0.0% $121,950 84.5% $335,000 -32.8%

Palm Desert $380,000 $385,000 -1.3% $287,000 32.4% $543,000 -30.0%

Indian Wells $815,000 $860,000 -5.2% $540,000 50.9% $1,205,000 -32.4%

Detached Homes

May-17 Year Ago

12 Month

Change 2011 Low

Gain off

2011 Low 2006 High % from High

Cathedral City $155,000 $135,000 14.8% $107,500 44.2% $270,500 -42.7%

La Quinta $349,500 $305,500 14.4% $265,000 31.9% $532,500 -34.4%

Indio $160,000 $149,000 7.4% $75,000 113.3% $279,000 -42.7%

Rancho Mirage $347,500 $325,000 6.9% $260,000 33.7% $510,000 -31.9%

Palm Desert $268,000 $269,500 -0.6% $175,000 53.1% $410,000 -34.6%

Palm Springs $234,000 $239,500 -2.3% $150,000 56.0% $350,000 -33.1%

Indian Wells $394,500 $413,500 -4.6% $321,500 22.7% $557,500 -29.2%

Desert Hot Springs $146,000 $157,000 -7.0% $86,000 69.8% $303,000 -51.8%

City of Coachella N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Attached Homes

12 Month Change in City Median Prices

The median price for detached homes in six of the nine major Valley cities showed positive year over year returns, one –

Coachella – was unchanged and two cities had negative returns. Palm Desert was down 1.3% and Indian Wells down 5.2%.

The six positive returns ranged from 11.7% for Desert Hot Springs down to 3.8% for Rancho Mirage. Attached home prices

were a mixed bag; four cities had positive year over year returns while four were negative. The two highest returns were

Cathedral City and La Quinta, with year over year gains just over 14%.




844

1,018

314375

531

643

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Un

its

Detached, Attached and Total Sales3 month moving average

Total Sales Attached Sales Detached Sales

Monthly Sales – 3 month trailing avg.

As we said last month - and emphasize again now - home sales in the Valley are surging. This is very important and was the

missing factor to a strong market the last three years. Total three month sales have now surpassed 1,000 units a month and

are up 20% over last year. Both attached and detached sales are participating in this sales expansion. Detached sales are up

21% while attached sales are up 19%. We expect these numbers to continue to increase over the next month or two, then

reverse somewhat as the seasonal pattern takes hold.




688

794

236276

452

519

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

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-13

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r-13

Ma

y-1

3

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l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

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-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

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y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Un

its

Detached, Attached and Total Sales12 month moving average

Total Sales Attached Sales Detached Sales

Monthly Sales – 12 month trailing avg.

As we predicted late last year, total longer term Valley sales are finally approaching 800 units a month, a level not seen

since the spring of 2013. This is an increase of 15.4% over last year. Detached sales at 519 units are up 14.8% and attached

sales, at 276, are up 16.9%. We now predict that total long term sales will reach a five year high of 850 units before the end

of this year, as this is the level three month sales seem to be indicating.




18

77

13

45 39

122

162

219 213

103

79

65

18

4431

115126

180 183

69

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

BERMUDADUNES

CATHEDRALCITY

CITY ofCOACHELLA

DESERTHOT

SPRINGS

INDIANWELLS

INDIO LA QUINTA PALMDESERT

PALMSPRINGS

RANCHOMIRAGE

THOUSANDPALMS

Un

its

Home Sales by City 3 month avg sales

May 2017 Year Ago

Home Sales per month by City

All cities except Coachella have substantially higher three month sales over last year. Percentage wise, sales in Bermuda

Dunes are 93% higher, Thousand Palm sales are 53% higher and Rancho Mirage sales are up 48%. In absolute numbers,

Palm Desert has the highest three month sales averaging 219 units a month, followed by Palm Springs at 213 units, La

Quinta at 162 units and Indio at 122.




173

268

205

111

72

5038

1811

73

156

233

162

95

5643

20 158

56

0

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100

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300

< $200K $200-300K $300-400K $400-500K $500-600K $600-700K $700-800K $800-900K $900-1M >$1M

Un

its

Home Sales by Price Range3 mos avg

Avg Sales Last Three Months Same Time Last Year

Home Sales by Price Range

Like it did last month, total three month sales increased in every price bracket compared to last year. The largest increases,

percentage-wise, were in the higher priced homes – from $700k and above. The sales increase in homes over $1M was 30%.

The increases in sales in price brackets below $700k were smooth and consistent across the entire band.




4,962

4,113

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

U

n

i

t

s

Valley Housing InventoryJune 1st 2012 to June 1st 2017

Coachella Valley Inventory.

Inventory continues to improve. On June 1st it stood at 4,113 units, which is 849 units less than last year. If inventory

continues to follow the historical pattern, it should now decline until August or September where we estimate it will probably

reach 3,000 units, a low level not seen since the autumn of 2014.




3.6

5.4

6.6

7.2

5.2

93

74

0

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0.0

1.0

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3.0

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Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17

Days

Mo

nth

s

"Months of Supply" and "Days on the Market"

Months of Supply DOM

“Months of Supply” and “Days on the Market”

With lower inventory and higher sales, the “months of supply” ratio on June 1st stood at 5.2 months. A year ago it was 7.2

months. To show the improvement in this important metric over time, we’ve indicated the ratio not only for last year but June

1st for the last four years. As the above chart clearly shows, the current ratio of 5.2 months is the lowest ratio since June 1st

2013. The DOM ratio for May confirms this improvement going from 93 days a year ago to 74 days today.




3.1 3.24.6

5.87.0 7.1 7.2

10.0

14.8 15.3

3.84.9

6.9

8.3

10.09.1

14.3 13.8

21.020.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

< $200K $200-300K $300-400K $400-500K $500-600K $600-700K $700-800K $800-900K $900-1M >$1M

Mo

nth

s

"Months of Supply" by Price Range uses avg. twelve month sales

June 1st 2017 Year ago

“Months of Supply” by Price Range

We see significant improvement in “months of supply” in every price bracket. The improvement is particularly concentrated

in homes priced over $700k. For homes priced between $700k and $800k, the improvement from 14.3 months to the current

7.2 months is almost 50%! In particular, for homes priced over $1M, the ratio is finally getting into a lower, acceptable range

closer to 1 year.




2.53.3 3.6

4.2 4.3 4.65.2 5.5

6.37.1 7.4

9.6

1.9

4.6 4.8

6.35.7

5.0

7.27.8

9.9

8.8

11.8 12.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

M

o

n

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h

s

"Months of Supply" by Citycity inventory divided by average twelve month sales

June 1st 2017 Year Ago

“Months of Supply” by City

Every major city in the Valley except Coachella city shows considerable improvement in its “months of supply” ratio over

last year. Seven cities now have ratios below 6 months and no city has a ratio over ten months. Because of seasonal

trends, we can expect to see these rations continue to improve over the next three months




1.8%2.9% 3.1% 3.2%

3.7% 3.8% 4.0%4.7% 4.7%

5.6%

7.4%8.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Pe

rce

nt

of

To

tal S

ale

s

Distressed Sales by Citypercent of total sales

May-2017 1 Year Ago 2 Years Ago

Distressed Sales by City

Distressed sales (REO and short sales) are now only 3.7% of total sales, the first time this ratio has fallen below 4% since 2006.

All cities now have ratios below 10%, the first time this has happened since the foreclosure crisis over seven years ago. Two

cities have slightly higher ratios than they did a year ago – La Quinta and Cathedral City – but the increase is very small.




-2.6% -2.7%

-4.0%

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

Sale Price Discount from ListMay 2017

Sale Price Discount from List

The latest “Sale Price Discount from List” is at -2.7%, which is just one tenth of a percent over a year ago. The chart clearly shows

the discount has been consistently oscillating between 2% and 3% for the last four years. The current percent implies that the

selling discount to a home listed for $300,000 is approximately $8,100.




Explanation and Description of Market Watch’s Graphs and Calculations

Prices: Except for our attached price index, all city and regional median prices are for single family detached homes only. All prices are the median value

for all transactions over the last three months (except for Indian Wells, which is six months due to the small number of monthly sales). For example, the

median price for the month of May will be the median value of all sales in March, April and May of detached homes. This longer time period reduces the

amount of wide and meaningless variation that one gets taking only the last month’s transactions and provides more reliable information. While we do

show the median selling price in our city reports, we try to emphasize the median price per sq. ft. in both these and our regional reports. For technical

reasons this metric is more reliable than median price and presents us and the reader with fewer statistical anomalies and variations.

Sales: Sales numbers are the sum of both attached and detached home sales. We present two sales numbers – three month average of sales and twelve

month averages. The three month average measures and shows the seasonal variations of the region. These three month averages should only be

compared against the same three months of previous years. For example, one should never compare three month sales in spring to that of the fall. The

twelve month average takes out all seasonality and is very useful when trying to assess the long term growth or contraction of sales in the region and at

the city level.

Inventory and Months of Sales: When we provide a monthly report for, say, the month of May, all sales and pricing are done using transactions

throughout that month and the previous two months. However, when we measure inventory at the end of May, it’s the inventory as of June 1st the next

month. It is the sum of inventory of both attached and detached homes. Remember sales and prices are accumulative while inventory is a momentary

snapshot of inventory on a specific date. To avoid confusion, the inventory reported in the May report is for June 1st, and our graphs and charts for inventory

and months of sales will give this date and not the date of the month of the report.

When calculating “months of sales” we almost always use average sales over the last twelve months and not three months. If we do use three months we

will indicate that we are dividing inventory by three month sales and not the normal twelve month average.

Days on the Market and Sale Price Discount from List Price: These calculations are also the median value of the metrics reported from the MLS listing

and are calculated over the last three months of transactions like price and sales. This is done to help reduce random variation and movements.

Call Out Numbers: The two numbers inserted in the charts are the most recent value(s) and the value(s) one year ago. Each number is connected to the

point on the chart it refers to by a small thin line.

Scatter Diagram Value Curve: In the individual city reports we provide a Scatter Diagram Value Curve which plots the price per sq. ft. of every sale for

the last three months versus the square feet of that home. In the graph each small blue circle represents a sale. Then a best fit linear line is calculated

through those points using the least square method to arrive at the value curve. The value curve represents the price per sq. ft. that the market is generally

giving different size homes. We provide the actual linear equation for people who might want to use it to calculate prices for different sized homes.

To contact Market Watch call Vic Cooper at 949-493-1665

Documents

Coachella Valley Median Detached Home Price Median Price ... · Monthly Sales – 3 month trailing avg. As we said last month - and emphasize again now - home sales in the Valley