Coastal Process ModelingUS Army Corps of Engineers

Jeff HansonResearch Oceanographer

MORPHOS Program Manager

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC)Field Research Facility (FRF) - Duck, NC

NOAA NWS Ocean Modeling Workshop, NCEP, 14-15 January 2008

Field Research FacilityEstablished in 1977 to Advance Coastal Knowledge

Through Research and Discovery

• Observations

• Modeling

• Model Validations

MORPHOS Program MORPHOS Program

Advancing Coastal Process Research, Modeling and Risk Advancing Coastal Process Research, Modeling and Risk AssessmentAssessment

Waves Circulation

Atmosphere

Sediment

MISSION:Develop, verify and apply a physics based coastal and estuarine

simulation and prediction capability with emphasis on storm-driven events

2004

2005

Waves Circulation

Atmosphere

Sediment

MORPHOS Program ElementsMORPHOS Program Elements

Community Steering

Coastal Modeling System

Research and Development

Community Tools

• Risk Assessment• Project Design• Event Reconstruction

Test and Evaluation

• Critical Data Sets• Model Test Bed

Morphos Program TeamMorphos Program Team

Oceanweather Inc.

Baird and Associates, Inc

Applied Research Associates, Inc.

Non-Linear Waves, Inc.

Risk Engineering, Inc.

Watershed Concepts Inc

Waves and Solitons, LLC

Alkyon Hydraulic Consultancy & Research

Woolpert, Inc.

Private Industry

Government Agencies

US Army Corps of Engineers

NOAA NCEP, National Weather Service

USGS Woods Hole Science Center

Academic Institutions

University of North Carolina

University of Delaware

Brigham-Young University

DelftTU

Ecosystem Process

Habitat,Water Quality

Nearshore Process

MorphologyChange

Regional Circulation ModelWater Levels,

Surge

Basin Wave Model Regional Wave Model

Coastal Response ModelingCoastal Response Modeling

Basin Winds Regional Winds

Meteorology Model

Need: Dynamic, 2

-Way

Model Coupling

Risk/Climate Model

Storm Parameters:Tracks, Intensity, Size,

Probability

Historical Storms

North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program

Model Validation Test Bed:IOOS Partnership

Analysis

AnalysisData Bank

Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics

Process Models

Waves Circulation

Atmosphere

Morphology

Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS)

High-QualityMeasurements

Concept Diagram

Model Validation Test Bed:IOOS Partnership

Analysis

AnalysisData Bank

Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics

Process Models

Waves Circulation

Atmosphere

Morphology

Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS)

High-QualityMeasurements

Concept Diagram

Observation IOOS Linkage

Model Validation Test Bed:IOOS Partnership

Analysis

AnalysisData Bank

Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics

Process Models

Waves Circulation

Atmosphere

Morphology

Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS)

High-QualityMeasurements

Concept Diagram Modeling IOOS Linkage

Observation IOOS Linkage

FRF Modelin

g:

SWANNearsho

reWaves

FRF ModelValidationPage:

Integration of CoastalObservatio

ns

Tropical Storm Noel Tropical Storm Noel SWAN Model ValidationSWAN Model Validation

Wave Model Evaluation and Wave Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS)Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS)

Temporal Correlation

Quantile-Quantile

Statistics are performed on any measured attribute

-Error Metrics include- RMS Error- Bias- Scatter Index- Circular Correlation and Bias (directions)

Model Performance Scores - Folded with sample size weighting function

WaveMEDS

Coastal ModelingCoastal ModelingCollaboration OpportunitiesCollaboration Opportunities

• Historical Storm Archive- track parameters

• Risk assessment technology

• Computational grid development – high res topo/bathy

• High-fidelity model technology advances

• Dynamic model coupling – capture the physics

• Collection of critical data sets

• Quantitative model test and evaluation -Test Bed

USACE Mission Critical Needs:

Thank you…