Conception to Implementation

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TransportationTransportationInfrastructure Projects:Infrastructure Projects:

From Conception toFrom Conception to

ImplementationImplementation

By

Prof. S. L. Dhingra

Transportation Systems EngineeringIIT Bombay



The StagesThe Stages

Conception:Conception: Identification of project alternativesIdentification of project alternatives

Selection of the best alternativeSelection of the best alternative

Implementation:Implementation: Construction of the project Construction of the project

Operation and MaintenanceOperation and Maintenance





Classic Four-Stage Sequential Travel Demand Model

Considering

Environmental Protection

Economy

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution Demand

Modal Split

Traffic Assignment Supply



Study area

Internal zones

External zones

Plan Periods

Demographic and Socio-economic data

Protection of planning variables

Transport network

Origin and Destination Survey

Travel Demand ModelingPlanning Variables



TRIP GENERATION

Trip Productions

Trip Attractions

Aggregate Analysis

Disaggregate Analysis

Zonal Models

Household-based Models

Regression Models

Trip-rate Analysis

Cross-classification Models



Trip Distribution Growth Factor Method

Synthetic Approach Basic Gravity Model

BPR Gravity Model

Entropy Maximizing Model

Optimization Model



Modal Split Models Trip end Modal Split Model

Trip Interchange Modal Split Models

Synthetic Models

Model derived from trip distribution

Direct Demand

Analytical tools for modal split Diversion curve

Regression analysis

Discrete choice modal



Traffic Assignment Models

All ± Or ± NothingAssignment Method

EquilibriumAssignment Methods

Diversion Models

DynamicAssignment Models

Combined Models

Direct Demand ModelCombined DistributionAssignment Model

Combined Modal Split and Route Choice

Models





Travel Demand Modeling

Other Approaches

Equilibrium Demand Modeling

Traveler as consumer of transit trips

Micro Economics - UtilityMaximization

Activity based analysis (Factors) Individual Traveler Level

Type and Time of Activity

Community Level

Social Level

Destination by mode

Congestion



Rural Road Planning Process

Creation of road development plansCreation of road development plans(alternatives) for achieving the objectives of(alternatives) for achieving the objectives ofintegrated rural development.integrated rural development.

Allocating priorities to rural areas under Allocating priorities to rural areas underconsideration through the various plansconsideration through the various plans

Qualification of the benefits of alternativesQualification of the benefits of alternativesand subsequent comparison betweenand subsequent comparison betweencompeting plans.competing plans.

Selection of the optimal road developmentSelection of the optimal road developmentplan through the above process.plan through the above process.



Transport Priority Indices (TPI) in aSystems Framework

The Need: -Huge investments involved and priority needsto be given to villages with higher populationand potential market surplus.

The proposals discussed are those initiatedby:

the State Government of Karnataka

the Indonesian rural roads studygroup

the ARD (Accelerated RuralDevelopment) road network of

Thailand



The Karnataka State Governmentproposal for computing TPI

»» Marking or index based system with highest marksMarking or index based system with highest marks

for villages with population greater than 1000 people.for villages with population greater than 1000 people.

» The indices are based on factors such as population,» The indices are based on factors such as population,village accessibility, local market, regulated market,village accessibility, local market, regulated market,

hospitalhospital,, post officepost office,, school, and electrification.school, and electrification.

» Each factor is assigned some marks and the priority is» Each factor is assigned some marks and the priority is

based on the total marks.based on the total marks.

» Drawback of method:» Drawback of method:-- only few factors considered.only few factors considered.



The Indonesian Rural Road StudyGroup proposal for computing TPI

» 2 components for TPI» 2 components for TPI -- Requirement factors andRequirement factors andProvision factors.Provision factors.

» Requirement factors such as traffic flow, traffic» Requirement factors such as traffic flow, trafficgrowth, population density, sociogrowth, population density, socio--economic benefitseconomic benefits

expected, area of influence, and networkexpected, area of influence, and networksignificance.significance.

» Provision factors such as length of road, surface type,» Provision factors such as length of road, surface type,surface condition, terrain, carriageway and formationsurface condition, terrain, carriageway and formationwidth, stability of drainage and culverts, condition of width, stability of drainage and culverts, condition of bridges and major crossingsbridges and major crossings

» TPI given by (Requirement factor score/Provision» TPI given by (Requirement factor score/Provision

factor score)*100.factor score)*100.



ARD (Accelerated RuralDevelopment) road network

proposal of Thailand for TPI

» 2 Factors: Benefit and Cost factors.» 2 Factors: Benefit and Cost factors.

» Benefit factors such as agricultural production,» Benefit factors such as agricultural production,cultivable land, water availability, population, existingcultivable land, water availability, population, existingroad condition, traffic volume, coroad condition, traffic volume, co--operation amongoperation amongpeople, public utilities and private enterprises.people, public utilities and private enterprises.

» Benefit and Cost scores worked out after giving» Benefit and Cost scores worked out after givingcertain marks to all the factors.certain marks to all the factors.

» TPI = (Total Benefit Score) / (Total Cost Score)» TPI = (Total Benefit Score) / (Total Cost Score)



Trip Generation & Distribution in aSystems Framework

» Village with the highest TPI is identified and is» Village with the highest TPI is identified and isdesignated as the origin node.designated as the origin node.

» Destinations to which traffic is generated from the» Destinations to which traffic is generated from theorigin node are also identified and are designated asorigin node are also identified and are designated asthe destination nodes.the destination nodes.

» Primary survey enables traffic estimation from the» Primary survey enables traffic estimation from thevillage by different transportation modes as well asvillage by different transportation modes as well asdistribution among various links.distribution among various links.

»» For inter zonal trip generation in the village region, aFor inter zonal trip generation in the village region, agravity model is hypothesized and calibrated togravity model is hypothesized and calibrated toestimate the slope and intercept coefficients.estimate the slope and intercept coefficients.



Organizational Setup forOrganizational Setup for

Planning and PrioritizingPlanning and Prioritizing Formation of Technical AdvisoryFormation of Technical Advisory

Committee (TAC)Committee (TAC)

Preparation of proposal/tender documentPreparation of proposal/tender document Guidelines for selection of tendersGuidelines for selection of tenders

PrePre--bid selectionbid selection

Selection of PMCSelection of PMC Selection of contractorsSelection of contractors

Proof consultantsProof consultants



UNDP - Government of India

Project on Pro-poor

GlobalisationAim:

Informed and participatory pro-poor

policy making, strategy and programmeformulation

Methodology:

Review of already conducted research on pro-poor and anti-poor impacts of globalisation

Additional research and analysis

Involvement of the poor in the policy dialogue

Making information accessible to lay- person



Methodology for Selection of Methodology for Selection of

ProposalProposal

Organisations short-listed on the basis of initialproposals

Selection of 3 top-ranked proposals based

on their presentations Initial contract awarded to these 3

organisations to further refine and detailtheir proposal, work plan and project

strategy. Review of final proposals by a panel

Project awarded to the highest ranked proposal



Decision Making

Importance of decision making at every stageduring the project

Two important steps in the decision makingprocess

Course of action, which contains recognition,discovery and contraction of ideas

Finding alternative strategies

Decision making is complex due to multiplicity of attributes



Multiple Criteria Decision Making

(MCDM)

Importance in design and planning

Some MCDM techniques:

Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Fuzzy Set Methodology

Metagame Theory



Analytical Hierarchy Process

Basic principles of AHP Hierarchic representation and decomposition Priority discrimination and synthesis Logical consistency

Series of pair-wise comparisonscarried out to obtain the preferenceorder

Each decision alternative assigned aweight Weights represent the alternatives

desirability



Applications in fields like: conflict analysis

operations research

portfolio selection bid evaluation

capital budgeting



Transportation planning involves Qualitative

and quantitative analysis including uncertain

Attributes and Characteristics.

Fuzzy Analysis takes care of this important

aspect of transportation planning.

FUZZY SET ANALYSIS



FUZZY LOGIC

Fuzziness in Transportation Analysis

In the study of transportation problems, fuzziness is

found in many aspects of analysis

Perception of data and information,y Knowledge base,

y Statement of goals and objectives, and

y Problem definition.



General Procedure for Fuzzy

AnalysisyDefine fuzzy problem in detail

yIdentify all important variables and their ranges

yDetermine membership profiles for each variable

range

yDetermine rules(prepositional statements ), and

ySelect defuzzification methodology.



The following are the steps of the methodology:

1. Identifying the modes which will form attributes

(i,e., factors) of those coordinated modes.

2. Categorizing different interest groups.3. Forming termed rating matrix, with columns as

modes and rows as factors.

4. Constructing of different rating matrices as per

the views of respective interest groups5. Aggregation of rating matrices6. Forming µ dominance¶ matrix from the dominance

of one mode over the other mode7. Calculating the % share of service by each mode

in a coordinated system.



The city of Calcutta, with five different mass transit

modes, is considered for the case study.

oordinatedMode

Bus Tram SurfaceTransport

UndergroundRailway

Water Transport

bbreviation BS TR SR UR Wt



The attributes considered for each mode are:Sl. No FACTORS

1 Travel Time

2 Frequency

3 Comfort

4 Cost ( Fare )

5 Congestion ( Traffic )

6 Accident

7 Ease of handling babies and luggage¶s

8 Suitability for handicapped and old people

9 Rating in terms of preferences



Rating matrix for commuters¶ opinion:

Sl. No. BS TR SR UR WT

1 0.70 0.61 0.75 0.81 0.65

2 0.77 0.69 0.71 0.69 0.66

3 0.61 0.70 0.69 0.83 0.72

4 0.95 0.79 0.68 0.76 .076

5 0.61 0.54 0.66 0.77 0.72

6 0.61 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.78

7 0.32 0.67 0.71 0.81 0.76

8 0.51 0.75 0.77 0.80 0.69

9 0.57 0.70 0.79 0.80 0.74




1 0.68 0.58 0.70 0.88 0.65

2 0.66 0.66 0.62 0.78 0.62

3 0.44 0.68 0.58 0.85 0.73

4 0.70 0.74 0.52 0.57 0.72

5 0.61 0.43 0.56 0.90 0.77

6 0.62 0.72 0.70 0.90 0.857 0.46 0.62 0.62 0.83 0.67

8 0.46 0.66 0.62 0.72 0.61

9 0.60 0.65 0.72 0.90 0.70

Rating Matrix for Planners Opinion



Rating Matrix for the Researcher¶s Opinion


1 0.51 0.38 0.83 0.85 0.56

2 0.53 0.61 0.66 0.75 0.73

3 0.40 0.66 0.58 0.73 0.76

4 0.62 0.75 0.61 0.48 0.62

5 0.52 0.50 0.65 0.78 0.78

6 0.45 0.58 0.62 0.75 0.78

7 0.51 0.61 0.62 0.70 0.80

8 0.50 0.59 0.61 0.71 0.78

9 0.61 0.86 0.78 0.82 0.85



The aggregation matrices using pessimistic

aggregation and optimistic aggregation are:

Pessimistic Aggregate

Sl. No. BS TR SR UR WT1 0.51 0.38 0.70 0.81 0.56

2 0.53 0.61 0.62 0.69 0.62

3 0.40 0.66 0.58 0.73 0.72

4 0.62 0.74 0.52 0.48 0.62

5 0.52 0.43 0.56 0.78 0.72

6 0.42 0.58 0.62 0.73 0.78

7 0.32 0.61 0.62 0.70 0.67

8 0.46 0.59 0.61 0.71 0.61

9 0.61 0.65 0.72 0.80 0.70



Optimistic Aggregate


1 0.71 0.61 0.83 0.88 0.652 0.70 0.69 0.71 0.78 0.73

3 0.61 0.70 0.69 0.85 0.76

4 0.95 0.79 0.68 0.76 0.76

5 0.61 0.54 0.66 0.90 0.78

6 0.61 0.72 0.72 0.90 0.857 0.51 0.67 0.71 0.83 0.80

8 0.51 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.78

9 0.67 0.86 0.78 0.90 0.85



Coordinated Modes

BS TR SR UR WT Row

Sums

BS - 7 8 8 8.5 31.5

TR 2 - 7 8 8 25

SR 1 2 - 8 6 17

UR 1 1 1 - 2 5

WT 0.5 1 3 7 - 11.5

Col.

Sums

4.5 11 19 31 24.5 90

Dominance Matrix obtained for Pessimistic Aggregation



Coordinated Modes

BS TR SR UR WT RowSums

BS - 5 7 8 6 26

TR 4 - 6 8 7 25

SR 2 3 - 9 8 22

UR 1 1 0 - 0.5 2.5

WT 3 2 1 8.5 - 14.5

Col.Sums

10 11 14 33.5 21.5 90

Dominance Matrix for Optimistic Aggregation



Final Ranking and % share by each coordinated

modes by both the techniques are:

BS TR SR UR WT Total

RelativeRanking

5 4 3 2 1

% share bycoordinated modes

5.0 12.2 21.1 34.5 27.2 100

Ranking and % of modal share for Pessimistic Aggregation



Ranking and % of modal share for Optimistic

Aggregation

BS TR SR UR WT Total

RelativeRanking

5 4 3 2 1

% share bycoordinated modes

11.1 12.2 15.6 37.2 23.9 100



The % modal shares among the co-ordinated modes

by both the methods are :

This indicates the order of priority

The approaches give the qualitative as well as

quantitative appraisal of the share of different mass

transit modes.

UR WR SR TR BC

Pessimistic Approach 34.5 27.2 21.1 12.2 5.0

Optimistic Approach 37.2 23.9 15.6 12.2 11.1



METAGAME ANALYSISMETAGAME ANALYSIS

PlayerPlayer

OptionsOptions

StrategyStrategy

OutcomeOutcome

Stability AnalysisStability Analysis

Unilateral ImprovementsUnilateral ImprovementsInescapable SanctionsInescapable Sanctions

Inescapable ImprovementsInescapable Improvements



Set theory logic

classical

game theory

Metalevel

Analysis

Technique of

application

(analysis of

choice)

Checking

the theory

by

experiment

Application

Situation or conflict :- a µgame¶

Major decision makers :- identified as µplayers¶

Specified no. of options with the player

A possible selection of options for a particular player :- his µstrategy¶

Situation where each player chooses a strategy :- µoutcome¶

METALEVEL

ANALYSIS



Application of Metagame

Analysis

Case Study for implementation of

underground railway system in thecity of Calcutta

Conflict between the users and the

implementers regarding the faresfor underground railway



Stability Analysis

Conflicting condition

Choice values forthe conflicts

A B

StableSolution

I. Implementers want to introduce UR.

They are reluctant to offer fare less than

the existing fare.

I 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

Commuters are interested to use UR andalso want less fare than existing one C 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0

II. Implementers are willing to introduce

UR and may or may not provide less fare

than the existing one

I 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0

Commuters are reluctant to use UR if

the fare is not like the existing one.

C 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0

III. Implementers are indifferent to

introduce UR and reluctant to offer fare

less than the existing one .

I 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

Commuters are willing to avail the

service of UR even the fare does notgo below the existing one. C 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1



ADVANTAGES

helpshelps inin thethe resolutionresolution ofof conflictsconflictsbetweenbetween partiesparties havinghaving aa differencedifference ofofopinionopinion..

a nona non--quantitative method of analysisquantitative method of analysis

LIMITATIONS

quite complicated in case of multi playerquite complicated in case of multi playerand multi choice conditionsand multi choice conditions

May not always lead to a stable solutionMay not always lead to a stable solution



CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES

The following case studies will be discussed:

Mumbai - Pune Expressway Project

The 50 Flyovers Project(Mumbai Traffic Improvement Mega-Project)

Western Freeway Sea Link Project

Bandra - Worli Sea Link Project, etc.



SUMMARYSUMMARY

Traditional four stage Transportation Planningmethodology is discussed.

Fundamentals behind the various techniques

adopted in decision making for megatransportation infrastructure projects arediscussed.

An insight is provided into the procedure

involved from conception to implementationstage supported by case studies of varioustransportation projects.



CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Projects should be well-conceived andeconomically efficient, using latest tools fordecision analysis.

Decision analysis should be through PMC , TAC

as well as conflict resolution, for different stagesin the projects.

It is necessary to have appropriate institutionalset up for effective conception, planning,

prioritization, decision analysis, PMC/contractorselection and effective implementation throughQ/A checks.



Thank YouThank You

Documents

Conception to Implementation