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1 October 8, 2013
Cant Handle the Truth
October 2013
Stephanie PomboyMacroMavens, LLC
[email protected] 212.989.3311 fax 212.989.0022
www.macromavens.com
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Domestic Nonfinancial Debt% GDP
115
130
145
160
175
190
205
220
235
250
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
247%
246%
Source=Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds (Z.1)
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Mortgage Applications vs. Total Home Sales (New + Existing)
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.9
6.3
6.7
7.1
7.5
Millions
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500
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4 October 8, 2013
Consumer Spendingy/y%
-4.0
.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
1
1
1
Crisis
Collapse
-2
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Retail Sales ex Food & EnergyNominal (- -) vs. Real*
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
+$20b
$ Billion
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1700
1975
2250
2525
2800
3075
3350
3625
3900
*Retail Sales ex Food & Energy, deflated by CPI
+$377b
$ Billion
Retail Sales Post-Crisis Recovery
$ change % change
Nominal Retail Sales $518b 11.5%
Nominal Retail Sales (ex F&E) 377 10.9
Real Retail Sales 30 1.0
Real Retail Sales (ex F&E) 20 0.9
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Consumer Spending in excess ofSpendable* Income
-150
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
2013
Billion
*Disposable Income less non-cash Benefits (like health
insurance)
$729b
$
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Velocity of Money
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
vs. S&P 500 Index (- -)
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
2010 2013
50
200
350
500
650
800
950
1100
1250
1400
1550
17001
1
1
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Foreign Purchase of US Treasuries12 month sum
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
$ Billion
$75b
1H:2013 2q:2013
Trsy Issuance 735 298
Trsy Purchases
Household -78 -190
Foreign 310 89
Fed 561 549
Misc -58 -150
Source=Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds
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Fed Balance Sheet (- -)vs. Gold
800
950
1100
1250
1400
1550
1700
1850
2000
2150
$/oz
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
illion$ B
MSCI Emerging Market Stocksrelative to MSCI Developed Market
Stocks
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
2013
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